August 31, 2016
With Labor Day approaching it signifies that the long hot summer will soon be coming to an end. It seems that the summers are getting hotter and hotter. I was born and raised in south Alabama so I was accustomed to long hot summers. I remember when there was no air conditioning in houses or cars. It was hot, but seems hotter today. I think we have gotten softer. It also seems that we do not have the spring or fall seasons anymore. All of a sudden one day in mid May it is 86 degrees and it never goes below that through mid September, or maybe even October. We have about 5 months out of the year where the temperature is mostly in the 90s.
This Monday is Labor Day. It usually does not cool off much, but we Alabamians seem to think that Labor Day marks the unofficial end of summer. I guess it is because it also usually marks the beginning of college football season. For those of us who are political junkies Labor Day also marks the beginning of the political season.
In past political years most campaigns for the November general election kicked off on Labor Day. This year is a biggie because 2016 is a presidential year. This year will bring to life one of the nastiest presidential races in memory. Both candidates already have unfavorable ratings of over 50 percent. That means that whoever is elected, the majority of the people in the country will hate their president.
In bygone days, every major candidate for statewide office would be in northwest Alabama this Monday. There is an event held in the northwest corner of Alabama known as the Terry Family Reunion. It is the largest family reunion in Alabama. Serious Alabama politicians know about this annual event that has been going on for many years. Not everyone who attends this family reunion has Terry family roots, but a good many do. It has become a must do event for aspiring statewide and definitely local candidates. Every candidate for Sheriff, Probate Judge, Legislature or Constable will be at the Terry Reunion, which is held in the corner of Lawrence County. It is an event for all politicians but especially for those from the Quad Cities of Sheffield, Florence, Tuscumbia, and Muscle Shoals and also for politicians from the counties of Colbert, Lauderdale, Franklin, Lawrence, and Morgan. In the past you can be assured that every statewide candidate for Lt. Governor, Supreme Court, and every other constitutional office would be there.
The Terry Family Reunion will have everything to eat, especially good barbeque. There will be political speeches and lots of one on one campaigning. Although there will be Labor Day barbeques from one end of the state to the other, none will be as political as the Terry Family Reunion just south of Tuscumbia and just north of Moulton and Russellville.
Labor Day is also a day to salute the American worker. We salute and honor our working men and women. As we salute and honor our Alabama workers, it should be noted that Alabama has historically been one of the most unionized states in the South.
Even with the upcoming presidential election on the horizon, I do not see how the last one third of this political year could be nearly as exciting or eventful as the first two thirds of the year have been in Alabama politics. The Mike Hubbard conviction, the Roy Moore removal from the bench, and the sensational salacious Robert Bentley saga are fodder for another book.
The legislature does not appear overly interested in moving forward with impeachment proceedings against ole Bentley. It is common knowledge that the feds are interested in and investigating his affair. Therefore, their poking their nose into his business would be like getting the cart ahead of the horse. It would also amount to the pot calling the kettle black. It would be hard to explain or defend voting for a man indicted for 23 counts of felony ethics law transgressions as your leader/speaker and then voting to impeach a poor old 74-year-old retired doctor, who has not stolen a dime and does not even take a salary as governor. It would give a new meaning to the word hypocrisy.
Happy Labor Day!
August 24, 2016
In 1960 television was a new medium. Most Americans did not have televisions in the early 1950’s. However, by 1960 the majority of the country had fallen in love with Lucy and TV.
Presidential races had been run by party bosses in urban enclaves like New York and Boston. Political parties and party conventions were extremely important. The parties were controlled by longtime political pols and insiders. Powerful governors and senators would control their state delegations at the nominating conventions and would yield inordinate power at a critical point in the process.
Machine and ward politics in the major cities of New York, Boston and Chicago dictated the choice of party nominees, especially within the Democratic Party. The Republican Party was even then more based in the Midwestern and rural part of the nation. We in the South were essentially as irrelevant in presidential politics as we are today. We were entrenched as an island of Southern Democrats based on tradition and the post-Civil War Reconstruction animosity. Today, we are reliably Republicans due to race and religion.
The country was changing dramatically beginning in 1960. Folks were moving west to California and south to Florida. The northeastern center of political influence was beginning to decline. The 1960 presidential contest is considered one of the most interesting, dramatic, and closest in history. It was also a pivotal race because of the advent of television. The television set became the center and king of American presidential politics.
In one corner of the heavyweight slugfest was the GOP standard bearer, Richard Nixon. He had been vice-president for eight years under the popular General/President Dwight “Ike” Eisenhower. Carrying the Democratic banner was youthful Massachusetts Senator and Boston bred John Kennedy. Most political historians submit that the presidential contest hinged on and was won on television.
The presidential debate between Kennedy and Nixon was televised and Americans tuned in. Kennedy was considered the underdog but he turned the race around with his sterling television appearance. He was youthful, articulate, and handsome and took to the TV like a duck to water. Nixon, on the other hand, came off as a mean-spirited, scowling, bumbling alternative.
Kennedy knew to wear makeup and look rested. He appeared tanned and energetic. Nixon had come into politics through the traditional mediums of newspaper and radio. In fact, most people who listened to the debate on radio said Nixon won the debate. However, he lost big on television.
Nixon arrived at the television studio without proper preparation. He refused to wear makeup as he said it was not masculine to wear powder on your face. It would have helped him. Nixon had a pronounced five o’clock shadow. He had failed to shave and he looked very sinister. He also would not smile. He appeared gaunt and pale, probably due to the fact that he had a flare up with phlebitis in his leg and as he was getting out of the car he hit his leg on the door and he was in severe pain.
Kennedy won the presidency with that television debate and a new era of American politics began. Television became the king of politics and for half a century has been the dominant weapon of national politics. However, the presidential race has seen the beginning of the end to television broadcast advertising being omnipotent.
In fact, it appears that paid television ads are having an inverse affect. Outsider candidates like Donald Trump have thrived with little or no paid television ads, while Jeb Bush spent over $60 million on television with very little result. Another Floridian, Marco Rubio, spent over $30 million on television. Two also rans and prominent governors, Rick Perry and Scott Walker, spent most of their campaign dough on television with no effect on their polling numbers and left the race before the first primary.
This trend actually set in during the presidential race four years ago. Studies indicate that television ads had little or no effect on the Barack Obama versus Mitt Romney contest. Digital advertising is beginning to challenge television’s dominance. Most Americans under 40 get their news online. However, older voters still watch television a lot. Nielson says Americans view an average of 36 hours a week whereas those older than 50 watch 47 hours. The era of king television in American presidential politics may be fading. Those of us older than 60 still like to read our local paper.
See you next week.
August 17, 2016
Political experts and historians have consistently chronicled the fact that vice presidential choices has no significant effect on the presidential race outcome.
However, this has been a very unconventional presidential political year. My assessment is that the selection of Mike Pence by Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton’s choosing Tim Kaine were extremely wise and helpful decisions. If for nothing else, I believe that Pence insures Indiana for the GOP and Kaine sews up the pivotal swing state of Virginia for Hillary. They are both very popular in their home states and are capable and stable choices.
Republican standard bearer Donald Trump helped himself immensely with his pick of Pence. There is a glaring difference between the two. Trump’s bombastic, egotistical brashness is offset by Pence’s genuine rock solid Midwestern humble and conservative demeanor.
Pence’s presence reassures the GOP base that Trump is a conservative. It also helps shore up the evangelical voters, who may doubt Trump. Pence is a devout born again Christian family man. Mike Pence the 50th governor of Indiana was a splendid if not perfect choice for the brash New Yorker.
Pence built a sterling conservative record during his 12 years in Congress on both social and fiscal policy. As a congressman he was such a devout fiscal conservative that he persuaded his fellow Republicans to cut federal spending before approving money for Hurricane Katrina relief efforts and in 2008 he opposed the bank bailout.
As governor of Indiana he has cut spending, lowered taxes, and reduced regulations. He was on course to win reelection to a second four year term. However, he had to withdraw from the race when he accepted the vice presidential nomination. Therefore, unlike the other finalists he had a lot to lose by accepting the nomination.
Indiana has traditionally been a Republican state. However, in recent years it has on occasion voted for the Democratic nominee. Pence’s presence solidifies and ensures that the Hoosier state stays in the Republican column.
Hillary Clinton’s choice of Tim Kaine was also a homerun. She could not have scripted someone better to be her vice presidential choice. He not only is a wise and shrewd political choice, but is uniquely qualified to be president. As Virginia’s U.S. Senator, he has served on both the Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees. He is one of a few men in American history who has served as mayor of an American city, Richmond, Governor of a State, Virginia, and now U.S. Senator, and he is only 58 years old.
Kaine has been a close friend of the Clinton’s over the years. He was an early supporter of Bill Clinton. The Clinton’s are very compatible and have shared common campaign political support from Wall Street and big banks.
Kaine has the ideal Democratic pedigree. He was born into a working class Catholic family. His father was a unionized ironworker. While in college, he worked as a missionary to Honduras where he learned to speak fluent Spanish and worked as a Civil Rights lawyer representing those discriminated against based on race and disabilities. He then went into politics and became mayor, lieutenant governor, governor, and now Senator Kaine.
He is known as congenial and a conciliator in the Senate. He is indeed well qualified to be president. He brings two important assets to the table. Foremost he probably brings the swing State of Virginia. Secondly, his speaking fluent Spanish will help solidify the ever growing and important Hispanic vote.
Both Trump and Clinton knocked it out of the park with their choice of running mates.
The Electoral College System of selecting our president heavily favors a Democrat capturing the White House. The demographic changes in the country and philosophical leftward tilt of our nation’s politics is trending to being like the left coast of California. This Democratic advantage is inherent enough that any Republican has to have a perfect storm to win.
Trump seems determined to ensure that happens. He is writing the perfect script on how to lose a presidential race. It is a though he is running to make sure Hillary wins.
See you next week.
August 10, 2016
As anticipated, a special Legislative Session has been called by Governor Robert Bentley. The Session is set to begin this Monday, August 15.
Dr. Bentley has bemoaned the fact that the legislature refused to grant Medicaid the $85 million they said they needed in the budget fiscal year, which begins October 1.
In the Governor’s call he is requesting that the super majority Republican legislature reconsider their refusal to keep feeding Medicaid, which is a money eating monster. It grows exponentially every year and is eating the state out of house and home. However, the Federal government matches our state dollars almost 3-to-1. Therefore, an $85 million cut in state funding results in almost $240 million less to Alabama Medicaid recipients. Fifty percent of the babies born in the state and 66 percent of the nursing home residents in our state are on Medicaid.
Even with the dire threats of cuts to physicians, hospitals, and pharmacies, as well as possible deaths due to the loss of some dialysis care, these guys really do not want to raise new revenue. They are real Republicans. They believe that the least government is the best government. If truth were known they would probably do away with Medicaid, as well as state government, all together.
The governor is proposing a state lottery to bolster Medicaid and the General Fund. The legislature cannot institute a state lottery by themselves. All they do is vote to allow you to vote on a lottery. The vote would be at the same time you vote for president this November 8. That is the most prudent date for the referendum. A special election would cost Alabamians $4 million. However, they cannot dilly dally around. They have to get it on the ballot by August 24.
A lottery would bring in about $240 million. That is not a lot of money when you consider how much revenue is budgeted by the state each year, but it is not so much about the amount of money it brings in. It is the fairness factor to our state that is the issue.
It is hard to understand how a legislator would refuse to allow their constituents the right to vote on this issue. If they have been listening to their folks at home at all, they have heard a hue and cry from their people that they would like the opportunity to vote on a lottery.
Recent polls reveal that over 75 percent of all Alabamians would vote for a lottery if their legislators would allow them to vote on it. This includes Republicans, who would vote for it simply because they want their money to stay at home. We are one of six states in America who derive no revenue from this source. All of our surrounding states have a lottery, except Mississippi which has full fledge casino gambling from which they derive a good bit of their state revenue.
Alabamians buy lottery tickets. They just have to drive to our neighboring states to get them. The most tickets sold in Georgia, Florida and Tennessee are bought on their borders by Alabamians.
If I were a Republican legislator running for reelection in 2018, I would hate to have to defend a record of casting my first vote of the quadrennium for Mike Hubbard for Speaker and then voting to refuse you the right to vote to keep your money home rather than sending it to our surrounding sister states.
Speaking of electing a Speaker, the first order of business in the House of Representatives on Monday will be the election of a new Speaker to replace Mike Hubbard. Under the super Republican majority rules, the House GOP members must vote for the candidate selected in a caucus meeting. They held that meeting last week and selected Representative Mac McCutcheon, a Republican from Monrovia near Huntsville, to be their choice for Speaker.
McCutcheon has been in the House for 10 years and defeated five other candidates within the caucus. The 70 Republican members will vote unanimously lockstep for McCutcheon, the former Chairman of the Rules Committee. They will essentially lock the 33 Democrats out of the election of the Speaker process.
It should be an interesting session. I will keep you posted.
See you next week.
August 03, 2016
Now that the national conventions are over and we have had a glimpse of what to expect in the upcoming fall presidential contest, let us turn our attention back to our good ole state politics.
Even though we do not have any good state races this year, it does not mean that we have not had our share of political happenings. We have been so active that we have garnered national publicity.
Let us reminisce and get you caught up on our soap opera, As the World Turns in Alabama Politics. As the year began we knew that the Mike Hubbard corruption trial would finally unfold. It ended in a convincing conviction and the removal of the once powerful speaker from office and legislative leadership.
We all knew of our good old Dr. Robert Bentley’s illicit relationship with his political advisor Rebekah Caldwell Mason but it seemed that it had maybe settled down. However, his fired former friend, Spencer Collier, came after Bentley and his girlfriend with a vengeance. There is an old saying that hell hath no fury like a woman scorned. Well you can add another adage that could be applied to best male friends scorned. Bentley and Collier were best buddies while in the Legislature. Most of Bentley’s Cabinet has come from guys that served with him in the House of Representatives.
Spencer Collier was a State Trooper by profession. He cherished the post of heading ALEA. Therefore, when Bentley fired him he turned on his doctor/governor buddy. He has filed suit and spilled the beans on all of the sordid details of Bentley’s affair.
It does not appear to me that Collier has much of a case. Cabinet members serve at the pleasure of the governor and the governor can remove them for any reason. It is not a bureaucratic merit system position.
Regardless, the damage has been done to Bentley and Mason. Our homespun, pious governor has been relegated to a national punchline. He continues to be fodder for late night talk shows and cartoonists. He has rendered himself totally irrelevant. Therefore, his legacy will more than likely be the salacious tapes that Collier released. We probably have not heard the last of this story. All of the media hype has spurred the interest of federal investigators.
The third saga of the year has been the removal of Chief Justice Roy Moore from his high tribunal office by the State Judicial Inquiry Commission. This commission has set a hearing for next week, August 8, to decide the fate of our renowned religious judge.
This vague Judicial Inquiry Commission brought six charges of misconduct against Moore, which triggered his automatic suspension on May 6. The charges stemmed from Moore’s January 6 order telling probate judges they had a ministerial duty not to issue same sex marriage licenses. This came after the U.S. Supreme Court had ruled such bans were unconstitutional.
The Commission said that Moore’s directive placed all 68 probate judges in an untenable position and forced them to violate the state’s cannon of ethics. Moore contends that his marriage order was simply advice and they did not have to follow his advice. Most of them did ignore him. They had sense enough to know that the U.S. Supreme Court’s opinion trumps a state court judge’s opinion.
Moore also argues that the Commission has no power over administrative orders. I tend to concur with Moore. It appears to me that this group has overstepped their bounds. My perception of this group’s mission is to police true misconduct by judges like egregious acts of illegality and immorality. Moore has not done anything illegal or immoral, he just simply has a different opinion than the U.S. Supreme Court on the issue of gay marriage.
His opinion is also the same as the vast majority of Alabamians. This group ousted Moore over complaints brought by the Southern Poverty Law Center and ACLU. Folks, in the Heart of Dixie, you could not find two better boogeymen to run against. Moore has got the ACLU, SPLC and the liberal same sex marriage mandating U.S. Supreme Court to run against for governor. George Wallace would have loved that scenario. He always said find me a good boogeyman to run against. They may be electing Moore governor.
See you next week.
July 27, 2016
As we have watched and participated in the presidential foray this entire year, an equally important event occurred. The death of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia in February is a very important event in American government.
Scalia’s unexpected death at 79 could affect the ideological tilt of the Supreme Court and could essentially have a profound impact on our nation’s public policy.
Our founding fathers created a three prong government triumvirate. The three branches, executive, legislative and judicial, are all designed to balance each other and work congruently to give us a functioning democracy.
In the past eight years we have experienced a dichotomy of acrimony and thus gridlock between our extremely liberal president and very conservative U.S. House and U.S. Senate. The liberal Democratic President and conservative Republican legislative branch have been at polar extremes, which has created havoc and stalemate between the two branches.
President Obama has attempted to circumvent constitutional restraints to get around the congressional roadblocks to his agenda. In the meantime, Congress has evolved into a partisan quagmire that leaves it without decisiveness, which leads to nothing being accomplished.
This partisan divide has rendered the Congress and Presidency powerless. Therefore, the U.S. Supreme Court has become the benchmark and pivotal decision making and public policy setting entity in the nation.
Scalia was the Court’s most reliably arch conservative. His death leaves the Supreme Court tilted to the left. The Constitution provides that the President is to appoint vacancies to the Supreme Court with the advice and consent of the U.S. Senate. The Republican majority Senate, led by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), has vowed to block President Obama’s appointment to replace Scalia for the remainder of the year. This is unprecedented. However, they can and will thwart Obama’s nominee.
The Republicans are hopeful that a Republican will win the White House and that they will retain their control of the U.S. Senate. Both of these occurrences may be wishful thinking.
Scalia’s death is a major loss for the nation’s conservatives. The Court is now evenly divided four to four between liberals and conservatives. However, Justice Anthony Kennedy, who has been considered the one moderate middle swing vote on the Court, has swung more to the left in recent years. Thus, for the remainder of the year the Court has a liberal tilt and there are numerous major decisions set to be made this year.
On course to be decided are landmark issues regarding abortion rights, affirmative action, voting rights and immigration. Under ObamaCare religious and non-profit schools and hospitals are mandated to pay for contraceptives. These groups are essentially pro-life and want to be exempted from the Obama mandate. With Scalia on the Court they would have probably won. However, the likely outcome is a 4-4 tie.
The long standing University of Texas affirmative action case was decided a few weeks ago. Scalia had already shown his hand against affirmative action in oral arguments. He suggested from the bench that African Americans may do better at “less advanced” or “slower track” schools. With Scalia gone the Court ruled against Texas and in favor of affirmative action.
In a case regarding voting rights, Alabama is front and center. The Court will consider changing the way state districts are drawn based on the number of eligible voters rather than total population. A favorable decision would be a major victory for Republicans. It would enhance the power of more rural and mostly white districts. In oral arguments in December with Scalia leading the charge it appeared the conservative justices may have had the edge. It is uncertain now.
President Obama’s immigration plan would prevent deportation for four million undocumented immigrants. An appellate court had ruled this unconstitutional. With Scalia on the Court the appellate court ruling would have been upheld. Now it is totally up in the air.
The bottom line is this election is extremely important when it comes to where the country is heading philosophically because the presidential race as well as senatorial races around the country will significantly affect the makeup of the Supreme Court.
See you next week.
July 20, 2016
Sometimes when I observe national politics I am enthralled by the magnificent creation of our American government. When our forefathers founded our democracy it was grounded in British parliamentarian philosophy with a unique American blend, which of course omitted a monarchy. Now, 240 years later, it is a very representative democracy.
As our founders designed, we have three very independent and equally important branches of government, Executive, Judicial and Legislative. The Executive Branch is the most visible with the election of a U.S. President every four years. In earlier times, military men ascended to the presidency. George Washington was first and foremost a General. Our last military Chief Executive was Ike Eisenhower.
Our first President, George Washington, disdained political parties and warned that they were harmful to a functioning democracy. He had a lot of wisdom, as did many of our earlier presidents.
Indeed, political partisanship has created a good amount of discord and disharmony among the American electorate. Party alliance, along with a cumbersome and archaic relic of a system of selecting our president within the confines of the Electoral College, makes the presidential race completely undemocratic. Under the Electoral College system only about 10 to 12 of the 50 states matter in a presidential race. It is almost a one state presidential election with Florida having inordinate and almost omnipotent power.
Demographic changes within the country favor a Democrat being elected president. However, the way the minority populations are concentrated into urban enclaves, the U.S. House of Representatives favors the Republicans controlling that legislative chamber.
The U.S. Senate is now the ultimate balance of power. Therefore, the U.S. Senate races around the country are probably more important, as well as more in doubt, than the presidential race. The Republicans took control of the Senate a few years ago with an anti-Obama sentiment. A good many of those GOP Senators are up for reelection.
Republicans currently hold a 54-46 advantage in the Senate. In this current presidential election year Republicans are much more vulnerable to losing their majority simply because there are more GOP seats at risk. Of the 34 Senate seats up for election this year, 24 are held by Republicans and only 10 Democrats are up for election.
The second major problem for Republicans is that many of those GOP seats are in states that voted for Obama in 2008 or 2012 and are considered blue or Democratic leaning states. There are nine states that are the battlegrounds for control of the Senate. In order for Democrats to take the Senate they must hold onto all their seats and win five seats from the GOP.
In Illinois, Republican Sen. Mark Kirk, who won with only 48% of the vote in this blue state, is the most endangered GOP incumbent Senator. In Wisconsin first term Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold in a rematch of their 2010 race. Colorado, which is a swing state in this year’s presidential contest, will also be a crucial part of the senate puzzle. Democratic Sen. Michael Bennett won reelection to a second term with just 48% of the vote, which makes him vulnerable to a GOP challenge. The retirement of veteran Democratic leader, Harry Reid, has left his Senate seat in play for each party in Nevada. This state is also a swing state in the presidential contest. GOP Senator Pat Toomey won a very close election in the blue state of Pennsylvania in 2010. This could be a Democratic pickup.
The two ultimate swing states in the presidential race will also be pivotal in control of the U.S. Senate. In Ohio, Republican Sen. Rob Portman will have a tough challenge from former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. This will be a key race. Sen. Marco Rubio originally abandoned his Florida Senate seat to run for President. However, in a last minute dramatic move in June, he backpedaled and decided to seek reelection to his Senate seat.
In Rubio’s statement he said, “Control of the Senate may very well come down to the race in Florida.” National political experts tend to agree with him. Although he lost to Trump in his home state in the GOP presidential race earlier this year, polling indicates that Rubio is the only GOP candidate who can beat either of the two Democrats in the Sunshine State.
Florida could be the deciding factor in both the presidential contest as well as for control of the U.S. Senate.
See you next week.
July 13, 2016
As if we have not been inundated enough with politics this year, hold on to your seats. Over the next few weeks that is all you will hear, read or see. The Republican Convention is set for July 18-22 in Cleveland and the Democratic Convention will begin on July 25 in Philadelphia.
After a full year of primaries, caucuses and delegate collecting, the field is finally set for the fall campaign for president. After the July conventions are over, the race is on between Democrat Hillary Clinton and the Republican standard bearer Donald Trump.
Trump has been the story of the year. He vanquished a field of stellar and sterling Republicans. It was quite a quest. He locked up the GOP nomination in May.
It took Hillary a little longer to put away socialist Bernie Sanders. In fact, Sanders won more primaries than Clinton and got almost as many votes.
The results of the primaries throughout the country reveal that there are two extreme political parties in America. The Democratic Party of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is extremely liberal and the Republican Party of Donald Trump and Jeff Sessions is extremely conservative. George Wallace would be hard pressed to run around the country today running for president as a third party candidate spouting his famous line, “There ain’t a dimes worth of difference in the national Republican and Democratic parties,” because there is a vast difference. In fact, they ought to simply change the name of the Republican Party to the Conservative Party and the Democratic Party to the Liberal Party.
There is a good reason we are a reliably red Republican state. We are indeed one of the most conservative states in America. Donald Trump will carry Alabama overwhelmingly in November and we will proudly cast our nine electoral votes for the GOP nominee for the tenth straight presidential election. We have voted for the Republican nominee in every election since 1980. A Democrat has not carried Alabama since Georgian Jimmy Carter in 1976.
The race for the White House will be fun to watch. You have a matchup of two brash, blustery New Yorkers. Hillary Clinton, the former First Lady, U.S. Senator from New York, and Secretary of State is making history as the first woman to be the nominee of one of the two major political parties. She will also enter the fray as the favorite. The demographic changes in America and the slant of the Electoral College System favors a Democrat in the presidential selection process.
However, I contend that Donald Trump, the flamboyant New York billionaire is the best candidate the Republicans could have fielded. His contentious, bold, provocative and uninhibited statements and behavior appeal to nonpartisan independents and blue collar men in the pivotal Rust Belt states of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
One thing is for certain, Clinton and Trump have the highest negative ratings of any presidential nominees in polling history. For years political experts have professed that a candidate cannot win an election with a negative approval rating of over 25%. Unbelievably, the polls show that Trump has a negative rating of 60% and Clinton has an unfavorable rating of 54%. That is amazing, yet one of them will be elected President of the United States.
Experts say that Trump has to tone down his rhetoric. He must build a campaign infrastructure and he must be more specific with his campaign promises and not just use slogans and code words. Hillary, first of all, needs to warm up some, if possible. She comes across as remote and distant. She must woo and attract young voters. Millennials do not trust her. She also has to fight back when Trump blasts her because believe me he will. We are probably in for the most negative presidential campaign in your lifetime.
As the campaign evolves, remember national horserace polls are irrelevant. Under the Electoral College System it is winner take all in each state. Therefore, about six pivotal swing states are the important cog in the equation. You need to know what the polls are saying in the key battleground states of Ohio and Florida.
See you next week.
July 06, 2016
The conviction and downfall of Alabama Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard is the political story of the year. It has not been the most profound conviction of an Alabama public official in my lifetime. We have had two governors convicted of crimes while in office and removed in fairly recent years, Guy Hunt a Republican and Don Siegelman a Democrat. Siegelman is still in federal prison in Louisiana. However, Hubbard’s trial has been the most anticipated and most dramatic.
Rumors of a grand jury investigation surrounding Hubbard started in the summer of 2013. In October of 2014, Hubbard was indicted by a Lee County grand jury of 23 counts of felony ethics law violations. His indictment has been the subject of political and media conversation for over 20 months. It culminated on Friday night June 10th, when a Lee County jury returned guilty verdicts on 12 of the 23 counts. Hubbard faces 2 to 20 years in prison on each charge and a maximum $30,000 fine. Given the magnitude of the overwhelming conviction, Hubbard is probably looking at real prison time in a state prison. Sentencing is set for this Friday in Lee County.
As a perfunctory course of action his defense lawyers will file an appeal. However, Hubbard would be better off to forego this process. It is very improbable that an appeal will be given any credence.
The judge in the case, Jacob Walker III, presided flawlessly without any hint of prejudice. He has been on the bench in his lifetime home of Lee County for 15 years and did a good job of running an efficient and errorless trial. He is rightfully very well respected by the folks in Lee County and throughout the state. He even read the detailed instructions to the jury straight from the book without any deviation or emphasis.
The jury listened intently throughout the grueling 12-day trial, even during the monotonous charge from the judge and the boring half day accountant’s discussion of Hubbard’s finances. There was no error in this case. An appeal is a waste of time and probably what little money Hubbard has left. Bill Baxley did not defend him for free.
I have not watched that many jury trials. However, I have never seen a more diligent jury. They paid rapt attention to every detail and took extensive notes and came back with a verdict similar to precisely what most reasonable men and women throughout the state would have rendered. They only deliberated seven hours and came back with their convictions, which were a clear as the nose on your face.
They convicted their fellow Lee Countian and Republican Speaker of the House. He was found guilty of using his office as Speaker to secure numerous consulting contracts. Sometimes these contacts brought in totals of over $30,000 a month and totaled over $2 million. For one of the clients, the American Pharmacy Cooperative (APCI), Hubbard inserted language in the budget that gave them an exclusive contract to provide pharmaceuticals for Medicaid and then voted on that budget.
Not only did Judge Walker and the jury do an exemplary and thorough job, the lawyers in the case did also. The prosecution team, led by Matt Hart, Van Davis and a young prosecutor Michael Duffy, were excellent. Bill Baxley was superb for the defense.
So what are the ramifications of the Mike Hubbard downfall? First of all, Hubbard’s seat in Lee County is vacated. A Special Election will be held. The Auburn area obviously loses clout in the Legislature. Hubbard, who is credited with leading the Republican takeover of the Alabama House in 2010 was the most powerful Speaker in memory. His removal leaves the House rudderless because the Republican super majority followed him like sheep.
Victor Gaston, the Speaker Pro Tem, ascends to Speaker. A new Speaker will be elected when the House convenes again. Several names are mentioned as Hubbard’s successor, Steve Clouse, Mac McCutcheon, Lynn Greer and Mike Jones. It will be an interesting evolvement.
This crisis of leadership in the House comes at a time when Medicaid, which covers more than 20 percent of Alabamians, received $85 million less than it says it needs to survive and the state’s prisons are at 182 percent capacity and facing possible federal takeover. Ironically, one of these state prisons will probably be where Mike Hubbard soon calls home.
See you next week.
June 29, 2016
The older you get the more you realize that old adages you heard as a child are true. There is a political maxim that says, “power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” It could very aptly be applied to the Mike Hubbard saga.
Mike Hubbard was born and raised in north Georgia. He went to college at the University of Georgia and majored in journalism and landed a job in the Bulldog Sports Information Department. About that time an amazing athlete came from rural Georgia to play football at the University of Georgia. His name was Herschel Walker. Hubbard was assigned the task of spearheading the media promotion to win Walker the Heisman Trophy. Indeed he won the prestigious award as the nation’s greatest football player.
A few years later, Auburn University landed an unusually talented athlete in Vincent “Bo” Jackson. Pat Dye had gotten the coveted Jackson after Bear Bryant dismissively told Jackson he would probably make him a defensive back or linebacker. Jackson did not like hearing that and he made Bryant regret it.
Bo Jackson became the best football player in the country. Pat Dye, who is a Georgia grad and an all American guard, reached out to his alma mater to find out who promoted Walker and learned that is was Mike Hubbard. Dye brought Hubbard to Auburn and Hubbard soon had a resume that made him the prime promoter of two Heisman Trophy winners.
Hubbard parlayed this notoriety into building a media empire around Auburn athletics. He controlled television and radio rights to Auburn games and even started his own radio station and printing company. He got elected to the legislature to represent Auburn in 1998.
Hubbard followed the legendary Pete Turnham in the Auburn House seat. Mr. Pete served 40 years in the House from 1958-1998. He had the record for legislative tenure in state history and was known as the Dean of the House.
Mr. Pete and I sat beside each other for 16 years in the House. I watched Pete over the years and every vote he cast and every action was geared toward helping Auburn University. He did it without fanfare. I saw him get untold millions of appropriations for Auburn. I always thought it was a travesty that not one building at Auburn was named after Pete. In fact, I observed him get the money for a new veterinarian building on campus. Therefore, it would have been most appropriate to name the building after old Pete. However, he would not have had it any other way.
Ironically, after only 12 years in the House, Hubbard became Speaker. He had a building on campus named for himself. He also became known as an inside manipulator when he orchestrated the bidding of the Auburn football games to favor his Auburn Network to retain the exclusive contract while he was the Auburn State Representative.
Hubbard became a stalwart state Republican leader soon after his election to the legislature. He became chairman of the Party and then in 2010 was instrumental in helping to recruit and elect the first Republican majority in the House. Indeed it was and still is and will continue to be a super majority. His minions elected him as their Speaker. He took control of the House of Representatives and ran it with an iron fist. Some would say that he became a dictator and that is not far from the truth.
In my lifetime, I have never seen a Speaker garner the power and total control that Hubbard wielded. It was a though he was the King of the House and the other Republicans were his loyal subjects. Thus, the adage “power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”
The much anticipated trial that ended on June 10, 2016, culminated in Hubbard’s conviction on 12 of 23 counts of felony ethics law violations. It was great drama. It was everything that was anticipated. The outcome was what most folks expected. His sentencing is set for July 8. He will probably get prison time given the overwhelming number of convictions.
There is very little likelihood that an appeal will get much traction. The Judge in the case, Jacob Walker III, did a flawless job and ruled fairly and within the law on all issues. He read the charges to the jury verbatim from the law. The jury was extremely diligent and ruled on every count exactly the way almost any jury in the state would have ruled after hearing all the facts and the law.
We will discuss the ramifications of the Hubbard downfall next week.
See you next week.