November 8, 2017
We still have the culmination of the race for the seat of Jeff Sessions set to be determined in less than five weeks on December 12. Roy Moore, as the Republican nominee, is the favorite. However, the Democrat Doug Jones could make it a closer race than first thought. He has raised some money and gained some traction and Moore has a good many detractors among Republican and independent voters.
The 2018 races are looming on the horizon. All of the horses may not be at the gate yet. However, we are only seven months before the GOP Primary. What at one time looked as though would be a titanic race for governor, may not be as good as first thought. Governor Kay Ivey is in the catbird’s seat to win a four-year term of her own. Huntsville mayor, Tommy Battle, appears at this time to be her most potent hurdle. Birmingham evangelist, Scott Dawson, is poised to be a dark horse
The Lt. Governor and Attorney General races appear to have the potential to be the most interesting races. You will also have a donnybrook contest for Chief Justice of the Supreme Court between current Justices, Lyn Stuart and Tom Parker. These two will square off in what will be a battle between the Republican establishment versus the Evangelical Tea Party Right.
Secretary of State, John Merrill, will run for reelection to his office for a second four-year term. He will be a prohibitive favorite to win reelection. He is the best retail politician in the state.
It is yet to be determined what State Treasurer Young Boozer or State Auditor, Jim Ziegler, are going to do in 2018.
Boozer is term limited. He will have served his two four-year terms. He has to either run for something different or go to the house. His wife, Sally, probably prefers the latter.
Jim Ziegler can run for reelection as Auditor and that is probably what he will do. However, he may opt for the Attorney General’s contest. His name ID would bode well in that race. Speaking of name ID, former AG Troy King is head and shoulders above the crowd if he were to run for his old job. Currently, the field is made up of former U.S. Attorney, Alice Martin, Birmingham Attorney, Chess Bedsole, and Robert Bentley appointee, Steve Marshall.
College football and politics are often compared. Florida Coach Jim McElwain found out quickly that losing three in a row can be a career changer. Butch Jones at Tennessee is headed for the same fate. But while winning and losing appears to make a real difference in competitive athletics, the same rule does not seem to hold true when it comes to the head job at the Business Council of Alabama.
This past competitive legislative session, the BCA, under Billy Canary’s coaching, lost three in row, but Canary seems to be secure in his position. BCA went into the session with three legislative priorities and they went 0 for 3. Now, in competitive athletics, that will send you job hunting.
AEA appeared to be dead and buried. However, AEA beat BCA in a head-on match this past legislative session and there is every indication that AEA is building a sizable war chest for the 2018 campaigns. Right now, the AEA supporters have got to be cheering for Billy Canary and praying that the BCA will keep him on. Same holds true for the state’s Trial Lawyers. With Billy Canary calling the plays for BCA, the plaintiffs’ bar, AEA, and every other left of center group has got to be looking forward to the match up.
There is another perspective that becomes particularly important in the 2018 election year. With BCA’s record, recent controversies surrounding Canary and BCA, and Canary’s abrasive New York personality, who would want to be seen as part of the BCA team? Veteran legislators and newcomers seeking office will quickly declare themselves free agents and will reject identification with BCA.
Furthermore, why would anyone considering contributing to political candidates in 2018 and wasting their contributions by giving it through BCA? It only makes sense to make contributions directly to candidates or through other PACs not affiliated with BCA.
When a football team starts losing, it can take a long time to turn the record around but the first thing you do is fire the coach. If BCA has any hopes of scoring victories in future legislative sessions or in next year’s political season, they better send a moving van to Canary’s house soon.
See you next week.
November 1, 2017
With all the changes and uncertainty surrounding Alabama government in recent months, including political appointments, high level resignations, special elections, runoff elections and a host of new candidates tossing their names into the 2018 election circus,
Alabamians might be relieved to know one thing remains steady and solid and many may never have heard of it – Alabama’s Silver Haired Legislature is one of Alabama’s crown jewels.
This illustrious and distinguished array of Alabama’s senior leaders will convene in Montgomery next week. This elected body of 105 members will meet to discuss issues related to seniors but in some cases, they may have positive impacts on the State in general.
Alabama’s Silver Haired Legislature has met now for 24-years. They have had a significant impact on Alabama Public Policy.
The idea of a body to represent seniors has been around the nation since 1973. Most states now have a Silver Haired Legislature. The idea of a senior legislative institution was created to educate older Americans about issues of local, state, and national concern.
The purpose is to insure that all 105 legislative districts have a senior legislator to mirror and provide some liaison with our 105 regular state legislators, assist them, and keep them apprised of senior issues that affect their constituents.
The Silver legislators serve as conduits between the state’s area agencies on aging, Senior Centers, nutritional centers and generally being the eyes and ears of seniors related to finances, education, recreation, health and wellness.
Unlike the regular legislature, the Silver Hairs body is unicameral and nonpartisan. They are from all parts of the state. The age requirement is that one must be over age 60.
They pass resolutions, not bills. Their nonpartisanship makes for a much more effective and harmonious legislative session than our regular legislature.
Many of these senior legislators have historically been an extremely experienced collection of retired state employees, educators, business people, judges, former legislators, mayors, and public servants. Many have been involved with governance at all levels.
Alabama is an aging state. By 2030 those age 60 and above will represent 27 percent of Alabama’s population. It is often overlooked, but this age shift is evolving. Currently it is estimated that nearly 20 percent of Alabama’s population is over 60. The fastest growing segment of our state’s population is our folks 70-85. Projections are at the next census one of every five Alabamians will be over 65. Therefore, it is apropos that we have a senior legislature of over 60 year olds looking after their interests.
They were at the forefront and subsequently were the reason that an Elder Abuse Statue was passed in the state. They were the first to address the issue of texting and driving. Legislation came out of that resolution. They have impacted the Medicaid budgeting problems and nursing home enhancements and regulations. They were the first to bring attention to the predatory payday lending business. They brought about public transportation for senior citizens who live in rural areas and small municipalities. They have sought assistance to better fund all Department of Senior Services.
Their current leadership is stellar. The Speaker of the House is Steve Griffin of Tuscaloosa. Winston Griggs of Headland is Speaker Pro Tem. George Boswell of Wetumpka is Secretary. Sandra Harris of Alexander City is treasurer. Other leaders who serve on the board and are legislative leaders are Mary Jo Martin of Demopolis, Dean McCormack of Tuscumbia, Warner Floyd of Montgomery, Homer Homan of Brundidge, Selena Daniel of Opelika, Carol Oden of Vinemont and Ann Holman of Dothan.
While much of the focus is on the younger generation, it will be those that have helped build the state who are quietly listening to the issues and helping plan the trajectory of state programs and politics who may actually have the loudest input at the ballot box and in helping shape the legislation that insures that Alabama remembers the needs of its seniors along with all of its citizens.
See you next week.
October 25, 2017
There have been quite a few political happenings in the Heart of Dixie during October. Birmingham has elected a new mayor. 36-year-old Randall Woodfin defeated two-term mayor William Bell.
I never got to know Bell that well; however, the few times I visited with him he seemed to be an affable fellow. He surely looked like a mayor. His distinguished demeanor and exquisite diction and appearance gave an elegant impression for Birmingham. He looked like he came out of Hollywood central casting.
Woodfin beat Bell the old-fashioned way. He went door-to-door with shoe leather and diligence. He met most of Birmingham’s voters one-on-one and it paid off. He beat Bell convincingly, 58 to41. At 36 Woodfin will be the youngest Birmingham mayor in modern history.
In addition to changing mayors, Birmingham voters also ousted two longtime city council leaders, Johnathan Austin and Kim Rafferty. Austin was City Council President.
Alabama State University did a good days work when they selected State Senator Quinton Ross as their new president. Senator Ross is a gentleman of impeccable character and ability. Ross has served 15-years in the Alabama Senate with distinction. He is very well respected among his colleagues on both sides of the aisle.
Even though being in the Democratic minority in the Senate, he has been able to work with the Republican majority to get an immense amount of things accomplished for his Montgomery district. His legislative and governmental experience will be invaluable in unlocking fundraising doors for the university.
Quinton Ross is an educator by profession with undergraduate and graduate degrees from his beloved Alabama State. He grew up in Montgomery, went to public schools and then continued his education degrees in his hometown. He is only 48-years old. He can build quite a legacy at Alabama State. He has the proper pedigree and love for his alma mater to make his tenure special.
The legendary coach, Pat Dye, worked diligently on behalf of Roy Moore in the U.S. Senate race. It did not hurt Moore any. Coach Dye is an icon in Alabama. He is a man’s man. I love to visit with him.
Even though he grew up on a farm in Georgia, he is a true Alabamian through and through. He reminds me some of our great folksy senator, Howell Heflin. Heflin was a true Alabamian. However, his daddy was a Methodist minister. As you may know, Methodist ministers are moved often. His daddy was serving a stint in Georgia when Heflin was born. Judge Heflin was always a little embarrassed by this fact being as he was a U.S. Senator from Alabama. He would often say that his daddy was doing missionary work among the heathen.
Pat Dye grew up in Georgia and was an All American guard for the University of Georgia Bulldogs. He became a coach for Bear Bryant 45 years ago. He became Bryant’s most renowned recruiter. He was the mainstay of Bryant’s last decade. His recruiting was relentless. He learned every corner of the state. When Alabama took the field for the national championship game against Notre Dame in 1973, 24 of the 72 players were signed by Dye.
He went on to become one of Auburn’s greatest coaches. His decade at the helm was some of Auburn’s glory years.
He enjoys his life on his magnificent farm in East Alabama. He spends most of his time on his land hunting and fishing. However, he has gotten riled up about the fact that Alabama is losing an immense amount of money to our neighboring states of Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee because the powers that be will not let Alabamians vote on a lottery.
Those powers that be are the Indian/Las Vegas gambling interests that want to continue to buy control of certain political offices that will allow them to continue their monopoly.
Our interim acting Attorney General, Steve Marshall, has shown his hand. Marshall, even though totally unknown, is running for a full term. The gambling interests have put their money on him. He has done their bidding and has filed suit against the Alabama owned casinos to allow his new bosses, the Indian gambling casinos, a monopoly.
You will be able to follow the money in the AG race. You can bet your bottom dollar that Pat Dye will be against Marshall. The Indian Gambling syndicate needs to hedge their bet. Marshall will not win that race. Alabamians will know that the gambling syndicate backs this unknown charlatan and his claim to the office was that he was Robert Bentley’s appointee.
See you next week
October 18, 2017
Now that the dust has settled from the Republican Senate primary, we can focus on the much-anticipated 2018 elections.
Kay Ivey is definitely running for governor. She raised over one million dollars in a few short weeks in August with an exploratory committee. As of the last reporting period, she has raised $1.2 million followed closely by Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle, who is at $1.1 million.
Ivey has been running a stealth campaign traveling the state and looking gubernatorial. On a recent day in Tuscaloosa, she visited the University of Alabama and then mid-morning, visited a pre-kindergarten class in the Druid City. Allow me to share a story surrounding Kay’s Tuscaloosa visit.
The University’s television station, WVUA, has a star, veteran, news anchor, Lynn Brooks. They have a large Tuscaloosa and West Alabama viewing audience. Lynn and her husband, who is a Tuscaloosa attorney, adopted a little 6-year old girl less than a year ago. They adopted little Emma in a magnanimous venture through the Department of Human Resources.
Little Emma had a traumatic first 5 years to say the least. However, Lynn and her husband have brought her out of her shell and given her a wonderful middle class life. She arrived without clothes or dolls. Lynn quickly got her three new dolls. Two of them were obvious Disney princesses. One was nameless. Like most 6 year olds today, they are quite precocious and computer and television savvy. Emma watches TV and names her third doll Kay Ivey. Her momma asked her why she named her doll Kay Ivey. Emma said, “Mom, don’t you know that Kay Ivey is the President of Alabama, like Donald Trump is the President of the United States.
Well guess what folks, that day the real Kay Ivey came to Emma’s school, Verner Elementary in Tuscaloosa, on Emma’s birthday. Emma told her mama casually as she was preparing for school that morning that the real Kay Ivey was coming to her school today for her birthday.
Some last thoughts on the just completed GOP Senate primary. Luther Strange garnered some powerful enemies during his 6-year tenure as Attorney General and they came back to haunt him. Bob Riley was ready to pounce on him after his boy, Mike Hubbard, was prosecuted. A second enemy evolved in the form of mega rich, plaintiff trial lawyer, Jere Beasley.
Beasley has always liked Roy Moore. He and his wife Sara are very devout religiously and are admirers of Roy and his wife, Kayla. In addition, Moore did not toe the business line on Tort Reform, which endeared him with Beasley the state’s most prominent personal injury attorney.
Beasley mostly aligns with liberal Democratic politicians like Barack Obama; however, in the race between Luther Strange and Roy Moore he raised money for his buddy Moore. Beasley had a further incentive because Luther as Attorney General had cut Beasley’s firm out of the settlement dollars from the BP oil spill.
There are multiple stories in Alabama political lore where someone loses a major race for political office and turns around to make a lot more money, and have a more prestigious and rewarding life after politics. They will all say, “Losing that race was the best thing that ever happened to me.” Jere Beasley epitomizes that story. He lost the 1978 governor’s race in a political defeat, but has gone on to glory and riches as a plaintiff attorney.
Actually, Luther and Beasley have more in common than they may realize. They both ended their political careers on the same ignominious note. It has been 40 years since Beasley’s infamous 1978 debacle race for governor. He finished a dismal and distant fifth in that race, finishing behind Sid McDonald, Albert Brewer, Bill Baxley, and the ultimate winner, Fob James. Beasley had been running fulltime for eight years and as Lt. Governor raised an immense amount of money. In fact he raised so much money that he held the record for 40 years for the most money spent per vote gotten in a statewide race.
Big Luther, who Beasley dubbed “Little” Luther broke Beasley’s record for the most money spent per vote gotten. When all is said and done, Luther and the Washington Super PAC’s will have spent over $15 million. In comparison Roy Moore spent around $1 million. That’s a record!
See you next week.
October 11, 2017
Jefferson County is transitioning from a Republican to a Democratic county. In the process, they are having an interesting array of intriguing political happenings. You may recall that a few months back I wrote about the indictment of the newly elected Jefferson County District Attorney, Charles Todd Henderson, on perjury charges. To say a lot has happened since then would be an understatement.
Dr. Robert Bentley has vacated the governor’s office under a scandalous cloud. Lt. Governor Kay Ivey has ascended to governor, and appears to be the favorite to win election to a four-year term of her own in next year’s upcoming elections. We have had a Special Election to fill the remaining three years of Jeff Sessions’ six-year Senate term. Former Governor Bentley’s appointee, former state Attorney General Luther Strange, was overwhelmingly defeated by former state Chief Justice Roy Moore, and the Ten Commandments Judge is poised to become our junior U.S. Senator. Therefore, that brings me back to Henderson.
There is a trial beginning next week regarding the Democrat Henderson. Todd Henderson was a police officer and a youth sports coach that put himself through law school later in life and, ultimately, became a lawyer. He is also a lifelong Democrat. Therefore, when he challenged two-term Republican Jefferson County District Attorney Brandon Falls in the 2016 Election, Henderson won.
It was simply another referendum on the party power struggle in our most populous county. The District Attorney race, similarly to all of the judicial races, has become a simple partisan straight ticket voting pattern in imperial Jefferson. Henderson won election in a fair and square unquestionable election. The reason Henderson won was because he was a Democrat and Falls was a Republican.
Luther Strange being the Republican Attorney General of course took the Republican mantle and began investigating Henderson to find a way to thwart the Democratic takeover of this powerful post of Jefferson County District Attorney. Strange’s office began investigating Henderson on perjury charges only after he was elected the Democratic nominee. Had Henderson lost to Falls that might have been the end of it. Based on research there has never been anyone in Jefferson County indicted, much less convicted of perjury in a divorce case. But Henderson won. So, on January 13, 2017, just three days before Henderson was supposed to take office, Strange indicted him.
When a District Attorney gets indicted, he is immediately suspended from office and the presiding local judge gets to pick who’ll replace him while the indictment is pending. Most folks do not know this, but the recently defeated Falls was well aware of this fact. That is why, according to some, Falls showed up at the judge’s office right after the indictment and made a pitch that he be appointed to fill the position. Just think about that. The voters in Jefferson County had rejected him as their DA with their votes, and he is trying to sneak in the back door as soon as he gets the chance. Fortunately for the voters, the judge was having none of it and appointed Henderson’s chief deputy instead.
Now the case is headed to trial and the only way Falls or any Republican can get into the DA office is if Henderson gets convicted. That is because a conviction will remove both Henderson and the judge’s appointment from office, giving Governor Ivey, a Republican, the power to appoint whomever she wants and you can bet it will not be a Democrat.
The whole mess stinks to high heaven of political motivation and vindictiveness. Our new Attorney General Steve Marshall, who was not a party to the Strange/Bentley scheme, has the chance to end this chicanery now before the trial starts and restore some faith in the office of Attorney General. The clock is ticking.
Marshall, who was appointed by Bentley to fill out the remainder of Luther Strange’s term, is running for a full term. The former Marshall County District Attorney is essentially unknown statewide.
Currently, former U.S. Attorney Alice Martin and Birmingham lawyer Chess Bedsole are the frontrunners to win next year’s race for Attorney General. However, if former Attorney General Troy King enters the race, he will win in a cakewalk.
See you next week.
October 04, 2017
Judge Roy Moore and his wife, Kayla, made their traditional horseback ride to their voting place in Gallant in Etowah County, last Tuesday and when all the votes were counted that night, they won a resounding victory. Moore’s capture of the GOP Senate nomination was impressive. A 55-45 margin is not a total trouncing, but is considered a landslide.
Despite being outspent by the Washington establishment 15-to-1, Moore prevailed. His solid bloc of conservative evangelical voters stood strong against an avalanche of negative ads.
When the Washington Beltway Big Money interests pony up, they bring with them the best and meanest pollsters and media consultants in the country. They congruently polled and told Luther Strange to tie himself inextricably to Donald Trump. Luther stuck to the script perfectly. Trump even came to Alabama to endorse Big Luther. It was to no avail.
When you are able to have $15 million spent for you and the president and vice president fly in to endorse you, you can look in the mirror the next day and honestly say; “I did all that I could do to derail the 10 Commandments Judge. Four months from now Mitch McConnell and crowd will be saying, “Here comes the Judge.”
The GOP Senate runoff was finalized last Tuesday, but it was probably decided last year and the dye was more than likely cast in February and April when the race officially began.
When disgraced and disregarded governor, Robert Bentley, gave Attorney General Luther Strange the Senate seat appointment in February it was the kiss of death. Folks in Alabama have never liked someone getting appointed to an office. When George Wallace was in his heyday of popularity, he would appoint someone to a political office, and they would invariably lose every time. Alabamians tend to resent this means of arrival into a political post. They especially look with a disparaging eye when they get selected by a governor who they are investigating for corruption while you are the state’s chief prosecutor. It appears clandestine and casts a cloud of conspiracy over the deal. Perception is reality in politics.
Big Luther was likely laid to rest in April when newly minted governor, Kay Ivey, changed Bentley’s decision to delay the Special Election to fill the remaining time of Jeff Sessions term from next year’s 2018 election to a Special Election this year.
Luther took the appointment with the assumption that he would have the luxury of nestling into the seat for almost two years and running as a veteran incumbent with two years under his belt and every race on the ballot the same day; two years for people to forget the appointment, plus 15 million dollars of Washington money is a lot safer bet than seeking election in a Special Election less than six months after the Bentley appointment against religious folk hero Roy Moore.
Judge Moore was poised to win whatever he sought in his next pursuit of office. When the state judicial inquiry commission removed him from the Bench for espousing his judicial opinion against gay marriage, it made him a martyr among conservative Alabamians. In the Heart of Dixie that was a very good hand to be dealt.
It made folks mad when the federal courts took him out of office for displaying the Ten Commandments. However, the wrath that his removal from the bench last year evoked was enormous. Especially, after he had been elected by the same voters because they liked his socially conservative stances.
Private early polling of the 2018 Governor’s race revealed that Moore was the frontrunner in that race. That is probably why Kay Ivey called for a Special Election as one of her first acts as Governor. She knew that Moore would be lured into the Senate seat, which better suits him.
There is a lot of talk and speculation that the Democratic nominee, Doug Jones, can make a race of it when the General Election is held on December 12. Jones is a good candidate. However, he is a true national liberal Democrat who proudly espouses the liberal agenda of the Democrats.
It is still very doubtful that a Democrat can win a statewide race in Alabama, especially for the U.S. Senate. However, it will be fun to watch.
See you next week.
September 27, 2017
As one of America’s most conservative states, we have a history of electing very conservative senators. Jeff Sessions proved to be one of the most archconservative members of the U.S. Senate during his 20-year tenure.
Another archconservative that served 10 years in the Senate from 1968 to 1978 was the great Jim Allen. Jim Allen had an illustrious career in Alabama politics. He was born and raised in Gadsden. He served in the Alabama House and the Alabama Senate from his native Etowah County. He was elected to his first term as Lieutenant Governor of Alabama in 1950, and to a second term in 1962. He was Lieutenant Governor during George Wallace’s first term as Governor. He was also a very successful lawyer in Gadsden.
Jim Allen is known most prominently for being the most astute parliamentarian in Alabama political history. He developed this trademark early in his career and honed it during his terms as Lieutenant Governor. Most state senate observers, say that Allen had no peer when it came to knowing its parliamentary rules.
Allen went to the U.S. Senate in 1968. Many political experts expected Allen, the incumbent Lieutenant Governor, to run for governor in 1966 when George Wallace could not succeed himself and failed to get the legislature to change the succession law. But Allen was a savvy politician who never lost a political race. He knew that Lurleen Wallace, as proxy for George, could not be beaten in 1966. He opted to lay low and take on the aging Lister Hill’s seat in 1968.
As expected, Hill announced early that he would not run for reelection in 1968. However, he did an unexpected thing and endorsed Congressman Armistead Selden to become his replacement. Selden was an eight-term congressman from the Black Belt and Hill had grown fond of him.
Another obstacle arose for Jim Allen. Wallace also backed Selden although not openly. Wallace and Allen had become friends and allies, but Wallace blamed Jim Allen for not gaveling through his succession bill in 1965.
So Allen began the race with both Lister Hill and George Wallace on the other side. However, Allen had gotten to know a lot of the Wallace organization and wound up with at least half of the Wallace crowd.
As the campaign began, there were riots in Washington. It was a time of civil unrest over the Vietnam War and the civil rights marches and landmark civil rights laws were fresh on people’s minds. Alabamians were sick of Washington.
Allen came up with the best campaign slogan of the last 60 years. He ran against “The Washington Crowd.” He had a very graphic photo of the riots and used the photo in his message of running against the Washington Crowd. Of course, the subtle subliminal message was that Allen was against the liberal Washington establishment that had forced integration and civil rights on the South.
Jim Allen became the conservative, anti-civil rights, pro-South candidate with that slogan. He tied Armistead Selden to the Washington crowd and won.
When Allen arrived in the U.S. Senate, the Dean of its Southern delegation was the venerable Richard Russell of Georgia, a master of the rules and the filibuster. He led the powerful bloc of Southern U.S. Senators. Because of their seniority, they ruled the Senate. It had taken a massive movement to steam-roll the Civil Rights legislation over this bloc.
Richard Russell, knowing of Jim Allen’s reputation as a parliamentarian, brought him under his wing and made him his protégée. He told Allen from day one that the only way that he would be a power in Washington was to master the rules of the U.S. Senate. Allen took Russell’s advice. He learned the rules so well that he was considered the most able parliamentarian in the Senate during his first term.
Allen became the stalwart leader of the conservatives during his years in Washington. His positions were very reflective of his Alabama constituency. He almost single-handedly led the charge to thwart what he considered the giving away of the Panama Canal by President Jimmy Carter.
He had been fighting this battle for several months. He also had to fight diabetes. He came home to Alabama very tired one weekend during this fight and succumbed to a massive heart attack at his Gulf Shores condominium at age 65.
Jim Allen was a great Alabamian. Hopefully, the person we elected yesterday will be another Jim Allen
See you next week.
September 20, 2017
The very interesting and entertaining Republican Primary for our open U.S. Senate seat culminates this Tuesday with the clash between two Titans. Judge Roy Moore and Big Luther Strange will be in a Titanic battle to fill the seat left vacant when Jeff Sessions became U.S. Attorney General.
We will see if Moses with his Ten Commandments and Hebrew children of rural Alabama can slay the Philistine Mountain Brook giant.
The results from the August 15 first primary were predictable. The turnout was about 18 percent, about what you would expect for a Special Election in mid-August, during 100-degree dog days of summer and one race on the ballot. Moore garnered 39 percent, Strange had 33 percent, and Mo Brooks received a respectable 18 percent.
The early polling and constant polling revealed that Roy Moore had a hard-core 30 percent of the electorate. It was and still is a solid block of voters that are going to vote for Moore come hell or high water.
Those of us that know politics knew that Moore’s 30 percent would become accentuated and would grow to 40 percent with a low voter turnout. That is exactly what happened. The final poll and the only one that counts is the count of those that show up to vote. Older people vote and Moore’s supporters are more ardent, dedicated, and older. They showed up and voted. They will again on Tuesday. Turnout is as critical as it was on August 15. Therefore, Luther Strange’s path to victory is narrow.
The Roy Moore popularity and hard-core support is a phenomenon and anomaly in this day and time in politics. It is very similar to George Wallace’s appeal in his hey day.
Although, unlike Wallace, who was a professional politician and demagogue in the classic Southern stereotypical style, Moore is a true believer. He has put his money where his mouth is. He has lost his job, not once but twice, for his stands for the Ten Commandments and against gay marriage. I doubt George Wallace would have given up his job as governor if a federal judge told him to get out of the school house door in the 1960’s.
However, Moore’s support is deeper than just an evangelical base. He is a true populist in the mold of a George Wallace or even Huey Long. This job of U.S. Senator actually fits him better in voters’ minds than governor. He could have and probably should have dug up and recycled an old Wallace slogan used by the fighting little judge from Barbour County in his presidential forays, “Send them a message.”
Moore amazingly carried 60 out of 67 counties on August 15. It was not just rural counties either. He won Mobile and Montgomery. Strange carried Imperial Jefferson and Brook’s carried his home bailiwick of Madison.
Luther Strange had all of the money. The Washington super PAC’s let it be known early that they were going to load him up and treat him as an incumbent. They were not just whistling Dixie. In the first primary, they spent over $5 million. Moore spent $400,000. Folks that is a 15 to 1 advantage. They have outspent Moore 10 to 1 in the runoff.
With the Washington money also comes the Washington gurus - the best pollsters and media experts in America. They polled Alabama Republican voters early and late and found Donald Trump’s agenda was very popular in the Heart of Dixie. They gave Luther Strange the pro-Trump script and he stuck to it perfectly. They hammered the Trump/Strange message repeatedly. They have stuck to the script in the runoff. Luther’s 33 percent vote on August 15 puts him within striking distance of Moore in the runoff.
Luther was bolstered by both the Trump endorsement and also the Alabama Farmers Federation endorsement. This conservative group’s support is vital in a statewide race.
The former State Attorney General did well as expected among upscale urbane voters in Jefferson and Shelby counties. He also did surprisingly well in some of the more populous counties of North Alabama, especially Tuscaloosa, Talladega, Cullman, DeKalb, Jackson and Walker counties. Walker County had a large turnout due to a local issue on the ballot.
The pivotal question is where do Brooks’ voters go Tuesday. My guess is it is a wash at best. Most stay home. Therefore, the only route for Big Luther to make up the difference was to go negative and they really did. We will soon see if it works. Again, turnout is the key.
See you next week.
September 13, 2017
As I mentioned last week, we will have a plethora of political contests to follow next year and the field is beginning to formulate.
The governor’s race is always the marquee event. However, the most important races will be for the 35 State Senate and 105 House of Representatives seats. These legislative races will be where most of the special interest money will gravitate.
There will be an unprecedented number of state senators not running for reelection. However, the nucleus and bulk of the State Senate leadership is planning to return. Veteran leaders Jabo Waggoner (R-Vestavia), Del Marsh (R-Anniston), Greg Reed (R-Jasper), Jimmy Holley (R-Coffee), Arthur Orr (R- Decatur), Cam Ward (R-Shelby), and Jim McClendon (R-St. Clair), will all run for reelection. Along with rising stars, Steve Livingston (R-Scottsboro), Clay Schofield (R-Marshall), Clyde Chambliss (R-Autauga), Shay Shelnut (R-Trussville), Slade Blackwell (R-Jefferson), as well as Gerald Allen (R-Tuscaloosa) and Tom Whatley (R-Auburn).
This cadre of Republican leadership returning portends that the State Senate will be where the power will be concentrated when the next quadrennium begins in Montgomery.
The same scenario will occur in the House. There will also be a good deal of turnover in the lower chamber However, the nucleus of leadership will return and will more than likely all stay in their leadership positions. The top five leaders will remain intact. Mac McCutcheon (R-Huntsville) as Speaker, Victor Gaston (R-Mobile) as ProTem, Bill Poole (R-Tuscaloosa) will continue as Chairman of the Education Ways and Means Committee and Steve Clouse (R-Ozark) will be Chairman of Ways and Means General Fund Committee. Rep. Mike Jones (R-Andalusia) will steer the Rules Committee.
One center of special interest power that will diminish significantly is the once vaunted Business Council of Alabama, unless they replace Bill Canary, their much beleaguered CEO. It has been rumored for over a year that he will be replaced.
In the past few months, the omnipotent power in Alabama politics, Alabama Power, made it perfectly clear that either Canary goes or the Company would have to reconsider its participation. The company’s last minute withdrawal from the annual BCA Governmental Affairs Conference was a clear message. But just to make sure the message was received, Alabama Power President, Mark Crosswhite, met with Canary in a gentlemanly fashion. He summoned Canary to the company’s downtown Birmingham headquarters and politely explained to the New Yorker that BCA’s failures and lack of leadership are a major concern to the company. Crosswhite then met with some key members of BCA’s board to make Alabama Power’s position clear.
Canary is telling his BCA bosses that the meeting with Crosswhite was a great success and everything was just a misunderstanding. But the only one who misunderstands, it seems, is Canary. Alabama Power was the integral factor in organizing the Business Council several decades ago. Their financial contributions to the BCA comprise over 25 percent of the group’s income.
In addition to the Power Company’s disenchantment with Canary, our senior Senator, Richard Shelby, has made it clear to BCA members that Canary is so out of favor with him that he is no longer welcome in his office and furthermore should not bother to call his office for an appointment.
Folks, what that means is that the BCA with Billy Canary on board has absolutely no power in Washington. All seven of our Congressmen and whoever our new senator is pales in power to Shelby. Shelby is more powerful that all eight put together, and believe me none of them want to offend him. He not only trumps them, he trumps Trump.
Canary is not only a pariah in Washington, he is a joke in Montgomery. Most folks thought he would be indicted with Mike Hubbard. His credibility has continued to diminish since that time. His cavalier, sinister, overbearing, and boorish New York behavior has made him a caricature.
In private conversations with most Republican and Democratic legislators, they will snicker and say if the BCA board is stupid enough to allow Canary to stay we will take their money during the 2018 election cycle and then ignore him for four years just like Shelby.
The BCA with Canary is a dead-man walking. They are a powerless joke. If a business were smart they would give their contributions directly to the candidates, rather than through a defunct organization led by a has been. You can bet your bottom dollar that is what ALFA and the Alabama Power Company will be doing.
Kay Ivey has made it official that she is a candidate for governor. She enters the race as the clear favorite.
See you next week.
September 06, 2017
Labor Day is the traditional kickoff to an election year. Folks our quadrennial gubernatorial election year is going to be a doozy. We are in for one heck of a political year next year.
Besides the Governor’s race, we have an open Lt. Governor’s race, an open Attorney General’s race, an open Treasurer’s race, and an open Agriculture Commissioner’s race. We have statewide races for Secretary of State and State Auditor. We have five seats up for election on the State Supreme Court. One of those will be a hotly contested battle for Chief Justice. We have two seats up for election on the Public Service Commission.
More importantly, we have local races on the 2018 ballot. Local races drive the turnout; all politics are local. All 67 sheriffs run, all probate judges run; there will also be local judicial races and all circuit clerks run.
All seven of our congressional seats will be on the ballot. Two of those seats will be in play. Second District Congresswoman Martha Roby is vulnerable and will be challenged and Fifth District Congressman Mo Brooks angered the Washington establishment Republican moneyed power brokers by challenging Luther Strange and he will be in a battle for his political life.
The most important races will be for the 35 state Senate seats and 105 House of Representative seats. An unprecedented number of Senators and Representatives will not be running for reelection. Those legislative races will be where most of the special interest money will gravitate. Money follows money. The Legislature appropriates state dollars as well as makes state laws. The Governor proposes and the Legislature disposes.
I have observed Alabama politics for quite awhile and 2018 is set to be the best circus I have seen, and I have seen some good ones. There may have been better governor’s races, but from top to bottom of the ballot, this may be the very best.
The governor’s race is always the marquee battle royale in Alabama politics. It will get cranked up immediately after the September 26 Republican Senate primary contest, which Roy Moore will probably win.
Kay Ivey will officially announce soon. She really began her campaign the day she was sworn in earlier this year. One of her first acts made her a player in the 2018 gubernatorial contest. Robert Bentley had initially called for the open Senate race to be in 2018. However, Ivey had seen polls that revealed that Roy Moore was going to win whatever race he ran for in 2018, whether it was Governor or U.S. Senator. The vague state Judicial Inquiry Commission made him a martyr and hero when they removed him from his Chief Justice post. Neither she nor any host of potential horses would have beaten the Ten Commandment’s Judge. However, she knew that the U.S. Senate seat would allure him and it did.
It was an adroit, brilliant Machiavellian move by Ivey. She has moved into the governor’s office and looks gubernatorial. She is in the catbird’s seat in the race for a full four-year term. Her move to have a special election this year rather than a regular election year not only enhanced her odds for election it also cost the state over $10 million.
State House of Representatives , Ways and Means Chairman, Steve Clouse, R-Ozark, has wisely and prudently prefiled a bill to clarify the law and clearly state that the election for a vacated Senate Seat would be held with the next general election. It will save the cash strapped General Fund a lot of money in the future.
Even though Kay Ivey will be running as the incumbent in the upcoming gubernatorial fray, her entrance has not deterred some major players. Huntsville Mayor, Tommy Battle, will be a player. He could run on a platform of saying if I can make the rest of Alabama a semblance of Huntsville, I am your man. Agriculture Commissioner, John McMillan, has won two statewide races and is in the race.
Several other viable candidates are not scared of the aging Ivey. Jefferson County Commissioner David Carrington, Birmingham Evangelist Scott Dawson, and State Senator Bill Hightower are already in the GOP contest.
Surprisingly two Democratic thoroughbreds are poised to run. Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox and former Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb are ready to pull the trigger.
PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh has moved to the Lt. Governor’s race. This is a wise and prudent move by the 50-year old state political veteran. She will be a prohibitive favorite to win that race. It is purely a name identification contest. Her positive name ID is very high.
See you next week.