January 26, 2022 - Will Gambling Be Addressed in 2022?
As the final regular legislative session of the quadrennium evolves, it is apparent that the legislature will not touch any substantive or controversial issues, but simply pass the budgets and go home to campaign. It is election year in the Heart of Dixie.
If legislators are listening to their constituents, they are hearing one thing – Alabamians want their legislators to allow them the right to vote on receiving their fair share of the money from gambling in Alabama. They are simply sick and tired of their money going to Georgia, Mississippi, Florida and Tennessee while Alabamians are paying for those states’ schools, roads and bridges.
You can bet your bottom dollar that if a clean lottery/sports betting referendum were to be placed on this November’s ballot, it would pass in a New York minute. Even the most conservative folks in our state would vote for it, if for only one reason – they want their money to stay in state. Every time there is one of these high dollar powerball national drawings, every convenience store on our border in the aforementioned bordering sister states’ parking lots are jammed with Alabamians clamoring to buy a lottery ticket.
Governor Kay Ivey has had a very accomplished five year reign as Governor. The Rebuild Alabama road, bridge and infrastructure program was big and much needed. Most of her successes have been housekeeping chores that required a governor, who was willing to put the state first and get these necessary projects accomplished instead of kicking the can down the road like some of her predecessors. However, these accomplishments will not give her a legacy issue that 50 to 100 years from now folks can point to and say Kay Ivey has a legacy.
The legacy awaiting Governor Ivey is the creation of a Constitutional Amendment that garners the tremendous amount of money spent on gambling in Alabama and also a Gambling Regulatory Commission to monitor and police gaming. You are talking about some real money for Alabama. Conservative estimates are $700 million a year to the state. In addition, there would be 12,000 new jobs.
The legislature and governor by themselves cannot achieve this reaping of the gambling gold mine. It would have to be approved by you – the voters of Alabama – in a Constitutional Amendment. If polling is correct, it would pass 65-35. With it being a constitutional amendment, it needs a three-fifths vote in the legislature to place the initiative on the ballot. The issue was discussed, extensively, and voted on in the 2021 session. It passed in the Senate but never was never put to a vote in the House.
The Senate would pass it again. There were 23 votes for the Constitutional Amendment and only 21 were needed for passage. There needs to be 63 votes in the 105 member House to place the amendment on the ballot in this year’s November General Election.
Therefore, the question is will it be placed on the ballot this year for Alabamians to vote to reap this financial bonanza? In order to pass the Constitutional Amendment to allow Alabamians to vote on a lottery and expanded gambling, Governor Ivey probably will need to weigh in with both feet and promote the issue in a Special Session.
Because it is an election year, the legislature probably will not want to deal with the issue until after the elections. The primary election is May 24. The current regular session will end in April, so gambling probably will not be dealt with in this regular session. Therefore, the best way to get the amendment on the ballot is a special session during the month of June because it has to be done by the first of July to get on the November ballot. However, with most legislators being unopposed they may take the bull by the horns and pass the constitutional amendment for you to vote on in November without the need for a special session.
In observing the legislature, it is bittersweet seeing Speaker of the House Mac McCutcheon presiding over probably his last session as Speaker. He has done an excellent job as Speaker. He is a kind, even tempered gentleman, who exudes integrity. He is decisive and fair, and you can tell he is a man of faith who truly cares about the House members, both Republicans and Democrats.
See you next week.
January 19, 2022 - Annual Legislative Session Underway
The 2022 annual regular session of the legislature has begun. It began January 11 and constitutionally can last three and one-half months, which would have it ending at the end of April.
This is the last year of the quadrennium and an election year. Therefore, the legislature will not address any controversial or substantive issues. This has always been the case in Alabama politics. This rule will ring true this year as it has in past years. They will come into session, pass the budgets, then go home to campaign. They may even adjourn early this year, probably the first part of April.
It will be an easy year, budget wise. The General Fund and Special Education Trust Fund will again have growth in revenue. The economy is still percolating from the COVID recovery, especially because of the influx of federal dollars.
Alabama will have received over four billion dollars from the Federal American Rescue Plan (ARP) COVID relief money. Almost half has been earmarked and given to schools, counties and cities and will not be allocated by the legislature.
The state received over $500 million in 2021. Most of that, over $400 million, went to build new prisons, which was the most significant achievement last year. There will be approximately $560 million of ARP money coming into Alabama for this year. The legislature will be able to play Santa Claus in an election year. The General Fund Chairmen, Steve Clouse (R-Ozark) in the House and Greg Albritton (R-Escambia) in the Senate, are being lobbied heavily as might be expected. They will be looking at several ways to disburse these federal dollars. The feds like the states to focus on rural broadband expansion, water and sewage projects, and hospitals and nursing homes. It will be a short and successful and non-controversial session.
Governor Ivey will miss her right arm, Jo Bonner. He has served as a quasi-governor for the past three years. Kay Ivey and Jo Bonner have a lifetime bond. They are both from Wilcox County, and like family. This remote rural black belt, southwest Alabama county has spawned Jeff Sessions, Kay Ivey, Judy Bonner and Jo Bonner. Jeff, Kay and Judy are all about the same age. Jo is about 15 years younger and like Kay’s little brother. Kay has never not known Jo Bonner. He has been the most influential Chief of Staff to a governor in state history.
In November 2021, it was announced that Jo Bonner will become President of the University of South Alabama. He will be the fourth president of the University of South Alabama, which is the third largest university in the state. Jo Bonner is perfect for this position. His decade as a congressman from Mobile and his prowess as an economic developer and civic leader coupled with his winning personality will propel the university in Mobile to a regional educational and medical center for Alabama, Mississippi and Northwest Florida. He is revered in Washington. His political connections and persona will make the University of South Alabama a politically powerful institution.
The governor made a wise and prudent move to fill the void left by Jo Bonner’s departure from the governor’s office. She made her loyal, dedicated and extremely qualified ally, Liz Filmore, Chief of Staff. Liz had already been functioning as a quasi-Chief of Staff to Ivey and Bonner.
A few months ago, Ivey adroitly convinced State Representative Bill Poole of Tuscaloosa to become her finance director. Poole is immensely and uniquely qualified for finance director. He served over a decade in the House of Representatives. Eight of those years he chaired the Education Budget Committee and wrote the State Education budget. He was and still is one of the most universally well-liked and respected legislators in the state. Bill will remain finance director and Liz will be Chief of Staff. They will be part of what Governor Ivey will rely on as her leadership team. The other two members of the four-person team will be Brooks McClendon and Nathan Lindsey, who will be elevated to Deputy Chief of Staff. Governor Ivey along with Jo Bonner has run an exemplary Ship of State administratively.
See you next week.
January 12, 2022 - U.S. Senate Race is our 2022 Election Year Premier Contest
This year’s midterm congressional elections will be the political story of the year in American politics. The U.S. House of Representatives will be in play big time. Whichever party has the majority has all the power.
Currently the Democrats have a very small majority. Polling and history reveal that Republicans are poised to pick up a large number of seats and gain back a majority in the House and will more than likely gain a slim majority in the U.S. Senate where there is currently an even 50 to 50 split, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris having the tie breaking vote that gives the teetering majority to the Democrats.
History has portended without deviation to a clear historical political fact that the party that wins the White House and concurrently House seats loses those seats in the next midterm elections. It is usually a significant pickup, especially when there is a Democratic president.
Early polling indicates this will happen this year. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings are abysmal, which will spill over into the swing House districts throughout the country. The first revealing salvo occurred in November in the Democratic State of Virginia when voters elected a Republican Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General and the majority of Virginia House delegates. A Republican takeover of the U.S. House will affect Alabama favorably because our House delegation is made up of six Republicans and one lone Democrat.
The marquee event for this year, politically, in Alabama will be for the open seat of retiring Senior Senator Richard Shelby. The race has been ongoing for almost a year and will be decided in a few short months from now. The election is May 24. The runoff will be June 21. The winner of that runoff will be our next U.S. Senator.
The favorites to capture the seat are either Katie Britt or Mo Brooks. Recent reliable polling reveals a close dead even contest between Brooks and Britt.
Mo Brooks is the current congressman from the 5th Congressional District, which encompasses Huntsville and the Tennessee Valley. There is probably not a congressional district in the entire country that has benefited more from federal spending than the Huntsville Redstone Arsenal. Brooks has not been helpful in this attraction of federal dollars to his district. The heavy lifting towards Huntsville’s growth has fallen onto the shoulders of Senator Richard Shelby. Brooks has been an obstacle to Huntsville’s federally funded prosperity. Brooks is seen in Washington as a right-wing gadfly nut that is more interested in finding a Fox News camera than helping his District or State. His claim to fame is that he is currently the endorsed candidate of former President Donald Trump.
Katie Boyd Britt is the mainstream, rational, conservative candidate. She is the choice of the pro-business, pro-growth Republican establishment in the state. She is the former CEO of the Business Council in the state. She has received the endorsement of most business groups as well as the coveted Alabama Farmers Federation. The business community sees her as a stable, reliable, and youthful successor to Shelby.
Katie Britt and Mo Brooks will both be well funded. Britt has outdistanced Brooks in fundraising. However, Brooks will be bolstered by the right-wing Washington conglomerate Club for Growth and may be able to match Britt dollar for dollar. It will be an expensive race.
The wildcard in the contest is the entry of one Mike Durant. He announced his entry about two months ago and immediately began a bombardment of excellent television and radio ads. Durant is a decorated war hero and POW, who came to Huntsville from New Hampshire and built his own successful business from scratch. He has a real story that if told well, will sell. In fact, it already has begun to sell. The hidden fact in the recent polling, which shows Britt and Brooks knotted at about 30 percent each, reveals that Durant is polling at 15 percent after only one month in the race. Durant is the wildcard in this race.
Katie Britt’s polling numbers are good. They show her trending upward. She is also the only candidate with a grassroots organization. She has campaigned in every county in the state, while Brooks’ handlers have worked to keep him off the campaign trail in fear that he will go off script and implode which he has tendency to do.
It would not surprise me that if Durant can sustain his ads for four months, which will be a heavy lift of his personal assets, that when the votes are counted on May 24, you may have a Katie Britt vs. Mike Durant runoff on June 21. It will be fun race to watch.
See you next week.
January 5, 2022 - Election Year is Here
Happy New Year. It is election year in the good ole Heart of Dixie.
Alabama, like a good many southern states, has our monumental political year in what the nation refers to as the off-year or midterm election year cycle. This reference is, of course, to the presidential election being the main political event. Thus, the last presidential race being 2020 and the next main presidential race being 2024.
Most states have their gubernatorial election year at the same time as the presidential contest. We are different, we have our big year in off-years.
This new year of 2022 will see our constitutional offices up for election, including Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner, State Treasurer, Secretary of State and State Auditor. Not only does the governor and all constitutional offices run this year, but so do all 67 sheriffs and all 140 legislative and state senate seats.
The governor’s race has historically been the premier political race in Alabama politics. It is the pinnacle or brass ring of our political world. Therefore, we old time political folks refer to this year as the gubernatorial year.
Qualifying began January 4 and ends January 28. The GOP and Democratic Primary elections will be May 24. The runoff election is set for June 21. The winner of the Republican Primary will be elected governor. Winning the GOP nomination for statewide office in Alabama is tantamount to election. No serious candidate would run as a Democrat.
It was thought that Governor Kay Ivey would coast to reelection with only token opposition. After all, polling reveals that she is one of the most popular incumbent governors in the country. She has done a good job as governor and will be tough to beat. However, in recent weeks two viable candidates have announced that they are running for governor. Lynda “Lyndy” Blanchard and Tim James are attempting to outflank her on the right. These two are viable candidates for one reason – they have individual wealth, which allows them the ability to acquire name identification and voter approval.
Lyndy Blanchard launched a campaign for our open senate seat in early 2021. However, by year’s end she flipped a switch and moved to the governor’s race. Her only claim to being qualified to run for governor is that she bought an ambassadorship to Slovenia in the administration of former president, Donald Trump. Her only hope for the governor’s race is that she can wish for Trump to endorse her. Although this would probably not be enough. As a lame duck, who has been out of the White House for over a year and who’s popularity is waning, his nod may not be as important as once thought. Blanchard’s only calling card is that she flashed $5 million on her senate campaign filing reports. It remains to be seen if indeed she spends that much of her own money on an uphill race for governor.
Tim James is making his third race for governor. He is the son of two time governor Fob James. Tim is a likeable fellow, is extremely conservative, and harps on fringe social issues like outlawing Yoga in schools. He like Blanchard possesses the main ingredient to make himself a viable candidate. He has some personal wealth and if he indeed spends some of his money, he can garner a certain segment of the vote.
If Kay Ivey sticks to her knitting, stays home and governs, and looks gubernatorial and does not beat herself, she will more than likely prevail.
The big question is can this full field of candidates, including Tim James, Lyndy Blanchard, Stacy George and Dean Odle, force Kay Ivey into a runoff or will she defeat the field without a runoff like she did in 2018? That question will be answered on May 24.
The power of incumbency will be omnipotent in the other statewide constitutional offices. Lieutenant Governor Will Ainsworth will be reelected with no or token opposition. The same applies for Attorney General Steve Marshall. He will be reelected to another four-year term unscathed. Interestingly, Ainsworth and Marshall are from the same North Alabama County of Marshall.
Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate will escape opposition and will be reelected to that important state post for another four-years. State Treasurer Young Boozer will coast to reelection, probably unopposed.
The power of incumbency prevails in the Heart of Dixie in 2022. However, we will have a doozy of a contest for our open United States Senate Seat, which we will discuss next week.
See you next week.
December 29, 2021 - We Lost Some Good Ones in 2021
As has been my custom for 18 years, I like for my yearend column to be a remembrance of Alabama political figures who have passed away during the year.
We lost some good ones this year. We lost our oldest past governor, John Patterson in June. Governor Patterson passed away at age 99 at his ancestral home in rural Tallapoosa County surrounded by his family.
Patterson was Governor from 1959-1963. He defeated George Wallace in the 1958 Governor’s Race, which featured a field of 14 candidates. He is the only man to beat George Wallace in a governor’s race. Patterson was Attorney General of Alabama prior to being elected Governor. He subsequently was appointed to the Court of Criminal Appeals by Wallace and was reelected numerous times and retired as a Judge of the Alabama Court of Appeals. He was a treasure trove of Alabama political history. He was Governor during a turbulent time in Alabama history.
Former Alabama Attorney General Jimmy Evans died in February at 81. Evans was a native of Montgomery and was Montgomery County District Attorney prior to being elected Attorney General.
Retired Alfa lobbyist Milton Parsons passed away in March at 91. Milton was renowned on Goat Hill as a straight arrow and straight shooter. He was an honest, trustworthy, Christian gentleman. He was Alfa’s chief lobbyist for 50 years. He was a devoted family man and devout Christian.
Former Troy mayor, Jimmy Lunsford died in May at 78. He was mayor of Troy for 30 years. Economic development was his forte. He was a tremendous steward of the city’s finances. He left Troy in good shape financially.
Former Mobile congressman Sonny Callahan passed away at 88 in late June. He was one of a long line of popular and effective congressmen from the first district. The list includes Frank Boykin, Jack Edwards, Jo Bonner, Bradley Byrne and Sonny. Congressman Callahan served 10 terms in the U.S. House of Representatives. Prior to his two decades in Congress, he served in the Alabama House of Representatives and then six years in the State Senate. He was successful in the trucking business in conjunction with his legislative and congressional career.
State Representative Thad McClammy of Montgomery passed away at 79 in August. McClammy represented parts of Montgomery County for 27 years. I had the privilege to serve with Thad in the legislature. He was a real gentleman. His word was as good as gold. He had a tremendous turnout for his funeral. State Senator Kirk Hatcher did a fabulous job singing two favorite hymns.
Former State Legislator and longtime Geneva County Probate Judge Harold Wise died in August at 96 years old. He lived an amazing and colorful life. He was a loved and respected Geneva County political figure. He was the uncle to Supreme Court Justice Kelli Wise. Kelli adored him. He was her mentor. She says he sparked her love of politics and her desire to have a career in public service.
Retired Winston-Marion County Circuit Judge Bobby Aderholt passed away in September at 85. He was a 50-year public servant, as well as lay minister. People say he probably married or buried half the folks in and around Haleyville and that part of Northwest Alabama. There was a tremendous turn out for his funeral. He was revered. State Senator Greg Reed sang at his funeral. Judge Aderholt was the father of our senior congressman, Robert Aderholt who is completing his 25th year in Congress.
Former State Senator Jim Preuitt of Talladega died in September at 86. He was also a State Representative and Probate Judge of Talladega County. He was a successful businessman and family man.
We lost some good ones this year.
Happy New Year!
December 22, 2021 - Jimmy Holley
Legendary state senator Jimmy Holley has decided to not seek reelection to the State Senate next year after 44 years in the legislature. He will be missed in the State Senate. For the past decade Holley has become a mentor and confidante for incoming State Senators, especially the members of this quadrennium’s freshman class. Senator Will Barfoot (R-Pike Road), has told me on more than one occasion that he has relied on Senator Holley’s wisdom and experience on a daily basis.
Holley is generally considered the most knowledgeable person in the Senate when it comes to parliamentary procedure and the rules of the Senate. Others like Senator Clyde Chambliss (R-Prattville) have been mentored by Holley. In fact, at the beginning of each quadrennium there was a clamor and struggle to seek the seat next to Jimmy Holley by members so that they could learn the intricacies of the senate rules and gather his institutional knowledge and wisdom.
Jimmy Holley has been my close friend for 40 years. We served together and sat next to each other for 16 years in the House of Representatives. We represented adjoining counties. I have never seen a more diligent and capable legislator.
When his hometown of Elba lost their schools to flooding, I saw Holley singlehandedly fight and secure extra funds from the Special Education Trust Fund Budget to build them new schools. Years later when a tornado destroyed Enterprise High School, which was and is the largest high school in his district, he secured funds from the state to build a new, state-of-the-art high school for Enterprise.
Jimmy would work at being a good and knowledgeable legislator. When most legislators would simply show up to vote and enjoyed the nightly social events hosted by lobbyists and associations, Jimmy would go back to his hotel room and study legislation and sharpen up on the rules.
One day Holley and I were sitting at our desks working on a myriad of legislation put out by the Rules Committee, I looked at the calendar and was unfamiliar with a looming bill about three bills down on the agenda. I asked Jimmy about a certain piece of legislation. He calmly told me all about the bill and told me I probably was not going to vote for it since it was a trial lawyer bill. He knew my pro-business propensity. It occurred to me that he had read the bill in its entirety as well as all the bills on the calendar the night before in his hotel room.
Jimmy was born and raised in Elba in Coffee County and has lived his entire life there except for the four-years he went to college in Tennessee, which is by the way where he met his lovely wife, Mary. Jimmy and Mary have two fine and successful sons. They all live close by Jimmy and Mary, so they have had the opportunity to watch their grandchildren grow up and go to all their ballgames and school events. They have a wonderful family life. However, even though Jimmy is only 77, he has had some health problems. The state and primarily his four-county senate district will miss him immensely.
Holley has spent over half of his life as a lawmaker. He is in his sixth term in the Senate and prior to that served five terms in the state House of Representatives. He currently chairs the Senate Government Affairs Committee and has been a fixture on the Legislative Council. His district includes Coffee, Covington and Pike Counties and the northern portion of Dale County.
Senate President Pro Tem Greg Reed (R-Jasper) summed up Holley’s departure well. He said, “Senator Jimmy Holley is an institution in the Alabama Senate and our Body will not be the same without him. I further appreciate the decades of service he has given to his district and to our state in his long tenure in the Senate, and I am grateful for the wisdom and experience he has shared with our membership.”
Jimmy Holley has a place in Alabama political history as one of the all-time legendary state lawmakers.
Merry Christmas.
December 15, 2021 - State Senate Will Have Little Turnover in 2022
2022 was anticipated to be an exciting competitive election year. However, it is going to be a yawn of a political year. If you thought there was no competition for the constitutional offices and the House of Representatives’ seats in next year’s elections, then you have not seen anything like the lack of turnover in the Alabama State Senate. Incumbency will prevail.
In fact, the power of incumbency in the Alabama State Senate is on par with the incumbent return percentage for Congress, which is probably comparable to the Russian Communist Politburo. There are 35 state Senate Seats, 27 of the 35 are held by Republicans. Out of the 27 Republican state senators, 24 are running for reelection and all 24 probably will be reelected. Almost all of them have no opposition.
The Democratic minority has just as high a reelection bar. Of the eight Democrats, seven probably will be running unopposed. The only Democrat not running will be Priscilla Dunn who has not been to the Senate this entire four-year term. Most of the first-term State Senators have never met her. According to rumors she is in poor health and cannot attend. The 150,000 people in Senate District 19 in Jefferson County have been without a voice or vote in the Alabama Senate for four years.
The three retiring Republican State Senators are giants. Del Marsh, Jimmy Holley, and Jim McClendon’s shoes will be hard to fill. These three seats will be filled by new Republicans. The 27-8 super Republican majority will continue.
State Senator Del Marsh (R-Anniston) has been a leader in the Senate for 23 years. He served as President Pro Tempore of the Senate most of that time. He ran a very effective ship of state.
State Senator Jimmy Holley (R-Elba/Coffee) is an icon. He was a master of Senate rules. He also was a mentor to a good many young senators.
State Senator Jim McClendon (R-St. Clair) will be sorely missed in the state senate. The gentleman from St. Clair served with honor and distinction for eight years in the State Senate and 12 years before that in the House of Representatives.
This freshman class of senators have bonded and work cohesively with the veteran leaders. The Freshman Class includes Will Barfoot (R-Pike Road), Tom Butler (R-Huntsville), Sam Givhan (R-Huntsville), Dan Roberts (R-Jefferson), Garlan Gudger (R-Cullman), Randy Price (R-Lee), Donnie Chesteen (R-Geneva/Houston), David Sessions (R-Mobile), Jack Williams (R-Mobile), Chris Elliott (R-Baldwin) and Andrew Jones (R-Cherokee/Etowah). Senator April Weaver (R-Shelby/Bibb) won her seat recently when Cam Ward left to become head of Pardons and Paroles. April Weaver previously served in the House of Representatives. She is the only female GOP Senator. She has a bright future. All twelve of these new senators have done an excellent job and all will be reelected. Ten of the twelve will probably run unopposed.
There are some exceptionally talented and dedicated veterans in the Senate that will coast to reelection. Most, if not all, will be unopposed. This stellar group of legislative leaders include President Pro Tem Greg Reed (R-Jasper/Walker), Senate Majority Leader Clay Scofield (R-Guntersville), Senator Clyde Chambliss (R-Autauga/Elmore), Senator Steve Livingston (R-Scottsboro/Jackson), Senator Shay Shelnutt (R-Jefferson), Senator Tom Whatley (R-Auburn/Lee), Senator Gerald Allen (R-Tuscaloosa), Senator Greg Albritton (R-Escambia) the Chairman of the Senate Finance General Fund, Senator Arthur Orr (R-Decatur) Chairman of Senate Finance Education, and last but certainly not least, the legendary Jabo Waggoner (R-Vestavia), who chairs the Senate Rules Committee.
There will be some outstanding veteran Democrats returning to the State Senate. There are several giants, who include Senator Bobby Singleton (D-Greene), Senator Vivian Figures (D-Mobile), Senator Rodger Smitherman (D-Birmingham), and Senator Billy Beasley (D-Barbour).
Senator Kirk Hatcher (D-Montgomery) is new to the senate. However, he bears watching. He is gregarious, likeable and a quick study. He will be effective for the Capitol City.
The senate abounds with outstanding leadership on both sides of the aisle. The lack of competition the members are garnering is a testament to their good work. This returning group of leaders could well portend for a successful future quadrennium. With this kind of experience and leadership, they will also be an independent group. They will not be a rubber stamp for governor.
See you next week.
December 8, 2021 - Incumbency Prevails in 2022 State House Races
Folks, believe it or not, we are closing in on six months before next year’s election year. The primary election is set for May 24, 2022.
In Alabama, all our major constitutional officers are on the ballot next year. The governor’s office is the premier race in the state, and that coveted and powerful post is set for its four-year quadrennial run. Therefore, this big political year is referred to as the gubernatorial year. Those of us who follow Alabama politics have been salivating with anticipation for a cavalcade of great races. However, the power of incumbency has devasted the big year into a yawn. All the major state offices are held by popular incumbents, who are either running unopposed or have minimal opposition.
The consolation prize was that there would be the legislative races. After all, this is where the real power in the state rests. You can simply look at where the special interest and PAC money is spent to verify that fact. However, the omnipotent power of incumbency has also encroached on those races.
The Alabama House of Representatives has 105 members. There are 77 Republicans and 28 Democrats. The large majority of incumbents are running for reelection – both Republicans and Democrats. The overwhelming majority of these incumbents will have no opposition.
However, in the House, there will be some major changes in leadership because of retirement or moving on to new posts. Speaker of the House Mac McCutcheon is not running for reelection. This has created an interesting and spirited race within the Republican Caucus ranks for Speaker. In addition, Victor Gaston of Mobile, who is Speaker Pro Tem, is also retiring.
Bill Poole of Tuscaloosa, who chaired the powerful House Ways and Means Education Budget Committee, has left the House to be the State Finance Director.
House Rules Committee Chairman Mike Jones of Andalusia is running for the open senate seat of retiring Senator Jimmy Holley.
Two of the freshman House members are running for statewide office. Wes Allen of Troy is running for Secretary of State and Andrew Sorrell of Tuscumbia is running for State Auditor. In addition, Connie Rowe of Jasper is leaving the House to become an administrative assistant to Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth.
Some of the veteran House members who are choosing to hang up their legislative cleats include Howard Sanderford of Huntsville, Mike Ball of Huntsville, K.L. Brown of Jacksonville, Kerry Rich of Marshall, Allen Farley of Jefferson, Harry Shiver of Baldwin, Mike Holmes of Elmore, and Becky Nordgren of Etowah. The most noteworthy retiree may be Representative Steve McMillan of Baldwin County, who is retiring after serving close to 43 years in the House. Steve has been a quiet yet very effective voice for the people of Baldwin County. They all will be missed.
Some of the high profile and powerful members of the House, who will return for another four years with no or token opposition, are Steve Clouse of Ozark, Nathaniel Ledbetter of Dekalb County, and Danny Garrett, Jim Carns, David Wheeler, and David Faulkner of Jefferson. Danny Garrett has ascended to Chairman of the House Ways and Means Education.
Other leaders returning are Chris Pringle, Reed Ingram, Randall Shedd, Tracy Estes, Chris Sells, David Standridge, Ginny Shaver, Jim Hill, Alan Baker, Joe Lovvorn, Chris Blackshear, Kyle South, Paul Lee, Jeff Sorrells, Rhett Marques, Steve Hurst, Joe Faust, and Margie Wilcox.
The Democratic leadership will remain intact. There is an illustrious array of House Democratic leaders, including Anthony Daniels, Chris England, Laura Hall, Peb Warren, Barbara Boyd, A.J. McCampbell, Berry Forte, Dexter Grimsley, Thomas Jackson, Kevin Lawrence, Mary Moore, Juandalynn Givan, and veteran John Rogers.
Two of the Democratic House veterans from Jefferson County Louise Alexander and Merika Coleman are both running for an open Jefferson County Senate Seat, leaving both their House seats up for grabs.
There may be an increase in the number of females in the House of Representatives. It has already begun with the election of Cynthia Almond of Tuscaloosa, who was elected without opposition to replace Bill Poole. In addition, Patrice Penni McClammy won the Montgomery District 76 seat of her late father Thad McClammy. She won with no opposition.
See you next week.
December 1, 2021 - Reapportionment Done. Legislative Races Begin.
The new lines are finally drawn for next year’s state legislative and congressional elections. They have just made it under the wire for the late January qualifying deadline and the May 24, 2022 primary elections.
The legislature should not be blamed for the late formulation of the lines because the U.S. Census Bureau did not produce the final detail figures until September 30, 2021. Therefore, the state legislature did a Herculean job by getting the lines drawn so quickly. They went into special session almost immediately after they received the numbers. However, their immediacy could be because it affects them immensely. Alabama’s legislature is tasked with drawing their own legislative lines, as well as the congressional lines for their state, as is called for by both the United States and Alabama Constitutions.
Folks, that is the reason that the census is taken every 10 years. It is mandatory by the constitution to allow for all congressional and legislative districts to have approximately the same number of people. This rule is referred to constitutionally and legally as the one-person, one-vote rule.
Alabama’s Constitution of 1901 patterns mandated reapportionment every 10 years like the U.S. Constitution does for Congress. However, Alabama lawmakers simply ignored this mandate for 60 years. the legislative lines had become so unfairly unconstitutionally out of proportion that it was comical. As a young page, I observed the representation in the House and knew something was wrong. My county of Pike had 25,000 people and we had two representatives and the Huntsville area had grown to over 200,000 people and they had only two representatives. Lowndes County had a population of 15,000 and had one senator. Jefferson County with a population of 635,000 had one senator. The Black Belt had gotten an unfair distribution of seats during the 1901 constitutional approval debate and had not relinquished their legislative power. Finally, the federal courts stepped in and dictated one-man, one-vote districts in the now famous Reynolds v. Sims case in the 1960s, which set the one-man, one-vote principle for the entire nation. It still amazes me that the good people of Jefferson, Madison, and essentially all of north Alabama allowed this incredible injustice to exist for 60 years.
The recently completed Reapportionment Session has drawn the new lines for our seven congressional seats, our 35 state senate seats and 105 seats in the state house of representatives, as well as our eight-state board of education districts. It was thought that there may have to be two sessions – one for congressional and one for legislative redistricting. However, we in Alabama dodged the bullet and did not lose a congressional district as was expected. By keeping our seven seats, it made it much easier.
However, kudos and accolades go out to the Reapportionment Committees and especially the Chairmen, Senator Jim McClendon (R-St. Clair) and Representative Chris Pringle (R-Mobile). They have worked diligently since the beginning of the quadrennium. Working on reapportionment is a tedious task, however, very important and powerful.
They had to be aware of political and legal parameters. We in Alabama are still under the eye of the U.S. Justice Department because of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. Therefore, they have to start with the premise that African American voters have to be given preference and there needs to be a proper number of majority-minority legislative districts. They had to begin the congressional redistricting with the fact that the 7th Congressional District of Terri Sewell had to be looked at and protected. The paramount concern was self-political preservation so the most ardent task was protecting the districts of incumbent legislators. The courts have held that partisan and incumbent protection is permissible as long as you do not get too carried away with gerrymandering.
The super majority Republican legislature was attentive to what might trigger an adverse judicial ruling on the redistricting plans. Chairman Chris Pringle was very attentive to not creating new Republican districts. They figured that the 77 Republican to 28 Democrat advantage in the House and the 27 Republican to 8 Democrats in the Senate was enough. The courts might see that as regressing or suppressing African American Democratic political power. It was actually difficult to avoid adding new Republican seats because the population growth has been in Republican leaning enclaves. The Democratic Senators and House members are quietly pleased with the plan because it was incumbent friendly. In other words, the cardinal rule in reapportionment is that you take care of yourself first. Party, race, and colleagues come second.
Under the new congressional lines, we will more than certainly still have six Republican and one minority Democratic district.
See you next week.
November 24, 2021 - 2022 Elections Six Months Away
Believe it or not, we are six months away from the 2022 elections. All statewide offices will be decided in the May 24, 2022 Republican Primary. Winning the Republican Primary is tantamount to election in the Heart of Dixie. Therefore, garnering the endorsement of the most conservative group in the state is vitally important towards election.
That group is the Alabama Farmers Federation or commonly known as Alfa. The Farm PAC Alfa endorsement is the gold standard for conservatism, and it is the ticket to election in Alabama.
The Alabama Farmers Federation is governed by county federation leaders in each of the state’s 67 counties, and the word leaders should be emphasized. The leaders of each county federation are respected men who have been born and raised in their community. Many have owned farmland for generations, are respected agribusinessmen, deacons in their churches, and board members of their local banks. In other words, they are centers of influence, and their words and recommendations extend well beyond their agricultural base. To win the Alfa endorsement statewide candidates have to go see each of the county federation members in all 67 counties.
There are over 100,000 actual farmers in the state that vote the Alfa endorsed ballot right down the line. There are also affiliated agribusiness groups that toe the Alfa line. In addition, there are over 100,000 insurance policyholders throughout the state who have their car and homeowners’ insurance with Alfa and they see the Farm PAC endorsement and usually follow it because they have contributed to Farm PAC. Additionally, a good many Alabamians will see their friends and neighbors with an Alfa ballot and ask them who Alfa has endorsed in certain races. Then they will vote that way because they know Alfa has vetted the candidates and chosen the most conservative ones.
The Alfa endorsements for the May 24, 2022 elections were decided on September 28, 2021. These endorsements will be decisive. Katie Britt won the endorsement for the open U.S. Senate race, which will be the marquee race next year. She got it the old fashioned way. She worked for it. She got out and visited and got to know almost every farmers federation member in the state. This endorsement will probably propel her to victory.
Governor Kay Ivey received the endorsement. She has been the darling of Alfa her entire career. The Farm PAC endorsement was critical in allowing her to win the governorship without a runoff four years ago. They have been with her from the get-go when she was State Treasurer two terms and Lt. Governor two terms.
Will Ainsworth received the Alfa endorsement for reelection as Lt. Governor. This endorsement is the reason he upset Twinkle Cavanaugh in their race four years ago. Alfa was the reason he won that race and has made his political career.
Incumbent Attorney General Steve Marshall has been endorsed by Alfa because he has proven to be a real conservative.
Rick Pate has won the Alfa endorsement for a second term as Agriculture Commissioner. He had the endorsement four years ago and it helped him win. Folks are really interested in who Alfa endorses for Agriculture Commissioner.
Incumbent PSC Commissioners, Chip Beeker and Jeremy Oden, received the coveted Alfa nod.
One of the most critical endorsements Alfa made was selecting Greg Cook for the Alabama Supreme Court seat of retiring Judge Mike Bolin. This endorsement of Greg Cook is pivotal. It proves that he is the conservative probusiness candidate for the Supreme Court. It will probably assure his victory.
Popular incumbent Supreme Court Justice Kelli Wise got the endorsement even though she may be unopposed.
Three candidates for secondary constitutional offices received the endorsement of Alfa and will be instrumental towards their elections are Wes Allen for Secretary of State, Young Boozer for State Treasurer, and Rusty Glover for State Auditor. Glover’s getting the endorsement is that race is pivotal as is Wes Allen’s in the Secretary of State.
Alfa has endorsed all of the incumbent Republican Congressmen including Jerry Carl, Barry Moore, Mike Rogers, Robert Aderholt and Gary Palmer. They have endorsed Dale Strong in the open 5th district congressional race. He appears to be the favorite.
All of Alfa’s statewide endorsements are Republicans. That makes sense because every statewide officeholder in the state is a Republican. If you made me bet, I would wager that all of the above mentioned Alfa endorsed candidates will win next year. We will see in about six months.
See you next week.