Steve Flowers

March 2, 2022 - Kay Ivey Still Favorite to Win Reelection

Usually in a gubernatorial year the Governor’s Race grabs the spotlight.  However, our open Senate Seat with the avalanche of Washington dollars flooding into the Heart of Dixie, the Governor’s Race has become overshadowed.

It is also an obvious fact of political life that an open Senate Seat is certain to be more competitive than a race with a popular incumbent governor running for reelection.  Incumbency is a tremendous advantage. You get free daily publicity just by governing. 

My prediction from the onset was that Kay Ivey would win reelection to another term and now with three months to the May 24 election, my prognostication is still that Governor Ivey will win a reelection victory.  Furthermore, my guess is that she wins without a runoff.

The best barometer of a gubernatorial outcome in a race with an incumbent governor running, is to look at how they ran the last time. Four years ago, Kay Ivey was a semi-incumbent. She had served over a year of Governor Robert Bentley’s last term and was running for her first full term.

In that 2018 race, she trounced the entire field of GOP candidates and won without a runoff. Folks, that field she beat in 2018 was much more formidable than the one she faces this year.  If for no other reason, she beat Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle one of the most qualified thoroughbreds to seek the brass ring in years.  He was well liked and from a vote rich area of the state and had grown his city to one of the fastest growing and prosperous cities in America.  Battle was well-financed and a good campaigner. Many of us wondered why he was seeking a job that was probably a demotion from being mayor of Alabama’s largest and most prosperous city. 

Battle was just one of the carnage that Ivey destroyed in the 2018 GOP Primary.  Also left in the wake were popular Birmingham Evangelist Scott Dawson, as well as well-financed Mobile State Senator Bill Hightower.

She went on to trounce the last viable Democratic candidate to run for governor, Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox who was well-financed and a viable candidate.  Kay Ivey beat Maddox 60% to 40% in the General Election.  This Maddox race wrote the book for what is the benchmark level for what a Democratic candidate can get in an Alabama state race.  The bar is set at 40% for a Democrat.  Doug Jones’ 39% to 61% loss for Senate in 2020 confirmed that threshold.

There are six unknown candidates who qualified to run as Democrats this year. The general election is irrelevant.  The winner of the May 24 GOP Primary will be governor.

The big question in the governor’s race is not whether Kay Ivey wins, it is whether or not this 2022 field of candidates can force her into a June 21 runoff?  The answer is probably not.

There are only two viable opponents, Lindy Blanchard and Tim James.  The reason they are viable is that they have personal wealth to spend. Both are spending their dollars, which shows a commitment.  

Tim James and Lindy Blanchard are both working hard. One of them will finish second. However, that only counts in horseshoes and marbles.  Running second was good in the old days of Alabama politics, because the governor could not succeed themselves. Therefore, whoever ran second would win four years later.  It was called running a “get acquainted race.”

In addition to Blanchard and James there are six other candidates vying to beat Kay Ivey. They all have some credentials and they are not all, “run for the fun of it” candidates.  Lew Burdette is a successful businessman who heads the King’s Ranch in Birmingham.  Dean Young is an ultra-right-wing candidate who has run several times for office in Mobile and is known in that area of the state. Dave Thomas is a former state representative and current Mayor of Springville in St. Clair County. Some voters may think he is the founder of Wendy’s. Dean Odle is an Opelika minister. Stacey George is a former Morgan County Commissioner who has run for governor before.

If Burdette gets 6%, Young gets 5%, Thomas gets 4%, and George and Odle get 3% each, that adds up to 21%.  That many candidates could force a runoff.  We will see.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

February 23, 2022 - 2022 Senate Race Will Be Most Expensive in State History

The marquee race in this big 2022 election year is for our open U.S. Senate seat.  It is beginning to percolate.

The race has been raging for over a year already and we are getting poised to begin the final full court press to the finish line. The GOP Primary is three months away on May 24 with a monumental runoff on June 21.  The winner on that day will be Shelby’s successor.

Early on, it appeared to be a two person race between Mo Brooks and Katie Britt. However, Mike Durant has surged out of the blue with a three solid month media bombardment and made it a three way race.

All three candidates appear to be well-financed and ready for a three month battle to the finish line. It will be the most expensive race in Alabama political history. There are barrels of money flowing into the Heart of Dixie primarily out of the Potamic basin in Washington.

In this modern day of national politics, a candidate’s individual war chest is not the all-telling story.  We live in a world of third party political action committees (PACs).  These third party PACs, based out of Washington, will more than likely spend more on their preferred candidate than will be spent by the candidates’ direct campaigns. The candidates’ individual campaign account dollars will go towards positive ads for their candidate.  The third party PAC ads will be negative.  These outside PACs are not supposed to work in conjunction or even correspond with their preferred candidate, but they do in actuality.  They share polling and media strategy.  These innocuous PACs have the meanest negative media gurus in America. These hired guns relish attacking and destroying their opposition.

Therefore, look for the next three months to be a barrage of negative ads against Mo brooks, Katie Britt and Mike Durant.

It will be easy to find and exploit negative ammunition on Mo Brooks.  He has been in politics for 40 years.  Katie Britt and Mike Durant will be harder to ambush as they are making their first races. It will be telling to see how Durant and Britt react to negative attacks.

Mo Brooks is backed by the Club for Growth.  He has been their boy for the last 10 years.  He fits in with them, ideologically.  The Club for Growth is an ultra-right wing fringe group that funds right-wing antigovernmental free trade candidates mostly in smaller conservative states where their money will go further.  They supposedly promised Brooks $5 million of soft third party money to commit to the race.  That money is there and they are spending it.  However, a deep dive into the polling shows Brooks sinking.

The wild card in the race is one POW hero, Mike Durant.  He has a really good story to tell, and he is telling that story with a well done media buy. He makes no pretense towards campaigning or meeting Alabamians.  He probably could not tell you where Conecuh or Bullock County are much less Samson or Slocomb.  He is from New Hampshire and moved to Huntsville to build an aerospace company.

Durant is being assisted by a third party PAC known as the Patriot PAC.  This group’s primary donors are very anti-Trump. The primary contributor to this PAC is a wealthy donor named Harriman. His mission is to elect five independent senators who will be swing votes and not align or have allegiance to any party. Harriman scoured the nation to find the perfect military hero to win a Republican seat. He garnered the perfect candidate in Durant, who is coming around the corner like nobody’s business. Durant would be likely to align with moderate Republicans like Mitt Romney and Susan Collins. In Washington, they are referring to Durant as a RINO in uniform.

Therefore, if you really look into the three GOP candidates you see a semblance of national Republican circles vying for a candidate of their persuasion to fill a guaranteed Republican seat.

Brooks would be the Club for Growth, right-wing, fringe candidate that adheres to pro-China trade policies and has no concern for Alabama jobs or federal projects vital to our state. Durant is backed by the Harriman PAC. Katie Britt is the mainstream, conservative, pro-business candidate who understands Alabama and her needs.  In fact, she is the only real Alabamian in the race.

It will be an interesting and an expensive three month show.  It will be fun to watch. I will keep you posted.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

February 16, 2022 - Significance of Trump Endorsements in Alabama Races

Former President Donald Trump was a very-popular president with Alabama Republican voters. Trump was a proven conservative president. He walked the walk. He did not just talk the talk. He has a legacy as president, especially in changing the philosophical tilt of the U.S. Supreme Court.  He remains popular with GOP primary voters in the Heart of Dixie.  

Trump continues to stay in the spotlight.  He almost feels compelled to endorse candidates for senate and governor in very conservative, southern and Midwest Republican states like Alabama where he still remains popular.  

Trump has indeed endorsed Congressman Mo Brooks in his quest to fill the seat of retiring U.S. Senator Richard Shelby. Brooks is basing his entire campaign on Trump’s endorsement.

Gubernatorial candidate, Lindy Blanchard, who has been a stalwart Trump supporter is hoping for Trump’s blessing in her quest to unseat Governor Kay Ivey.  Trump’s endorsement in this race would indeed be important in Ms. Blanchard’s mission.

In the senate race, polling by two reputable and independent polling firms indicates that Mo Brooks and Katie Britt are in a dead heat contest each with about 25% with Mike Durant at 18%.  Their numbers are not rock solid.  Britt has more favorable numbers than Brooks on likeability.    The poll indicates that if President Trump continues to be for Brooks, it will help him immensely.  If Trump becomes disenchanted with Brooks, he can kiss this race goodbye.  Brook’s campaign would simply vanish and sail away.

Therefore, the prevailing question is what is the significance of Trump’s endorsement in the senate race and also if Trump endorses the governor’s race?

My observation of Alabama politics over the last 60 years is that Alabamians more than any other state have a pronounced proclivity of not voting for a candidate that someone endorses, they will actually vote against them for that reason.  Alabamians are independent and like to make their own choices for individual candidates.  It has happened over and over again in my lifetime as though they are saying to a governor, in this case a former president, we elected you to your office and you ought to be thankful for that and not be presumptuous or try to stick your nose where it doesn’t belong.  Stick to your own knitting.

George Wallace in his heyday, when he was very popular, more popular than Trump in Alabama, would endorse candidates and they would universally, invariably lose even if they were favored.  It was as though his endorsement was the kiss of death.  He gave up and quit endorsing.

Trump has already had a dose of this Alabama anti-endorsing elixir. He made two endorsements in the 2017 special senate elections. Trump endorsed Luther Strange, and he lost.  Trump then endorsed Roy Moore and he lost.  

Other southern states have illustrated this anti-endorsing history.  During the Franklin Delano Roosevelt presidency, which lasted four terms throughout the Great Depression and New Deal, FDR was beloved and revered throughout the South.  He was especially loved in Georgia, where he would spend a good amount of time at his home in Warm Springs.

FDR had become like a king.  He was immensely popular.  However, he was having problems with the conservative establishment-oriented aging U.S. Supreme Court.  Roosevelt responded with a bold, audacious move to pack the court with six new members whom he could select and move the Supreme Court from 9 to 15 justices.  FDR wanted to control the Supreme Court.  A good many U.S. Senators, who had been loyal to Roosevelt’s New Deal agenda could not go along with this brazen power play. Georgia’s venerable Walter George was one of those who opposed the FDR Court packing plan.

Senator George was running for reelection and there was a tremendous ceremonial event of a water dam that Senator George had secured for Georgia.  The ceremony was less than a month before the election.  FDR came to the event and lambasted Walter George and openly asked Georgians to vote against him for reelection. When it came time for Senator Walter George to speak, he calmly and gentlemanly went to the podium and said in a dignified voice, “Mr. President, we Georgians appreciate you, we love you and admire you, but Mr. President, Georgians will elect their U.S. Senator.” Walter George was reelected overwhelmingly a few weeks later.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

February 2, 2022 - Groundhog Day

Happy Groundhog Day. It is an ironic juxtaposition that the State of the Union address by the president and Groundhog Day occur on the same day. One involves a meaningless ritual in which a doddering octogenarian who is as outdated as the State of the Union event stumbles through some scripted predictions. The other involves an outdated mythical tradition celebrating a prediction by a rodent. Both prognostications by Biden and the Groundhog are insignificant and irrelevant.

Our marquee race for 2022 in the State of Alabama is the race to replace our retiring U.S. Senator, Richard Shelby. Before I delve into the rivalry to follow Shelby and sit in his seat, allow me to say that his junior counterpart in our current Senate tandem, Coach Tommy Tuberville, is doing a good job after his first year as our junior U. S. Senator. There was some speculation regarding his effectiveness given his lack of governmental experience. 

Tuberville has put together an excellent staff.  He did a good day’s work when he secured Stephen Boyd as his Chief of Staff. Tuberville and his staff are doing an excellent job with constituent service, which is an integral part of a senator’s job when you want to be an effective senator for your state.  

Tuberville’s staff is especially interested in helping veterans in Alabama.  He has a full-time staff member, who is assigned to helping Alabama veterans get their deserved benefits for their service to our country.  You could tell Tuberville was driven to making sure that military veterans and current service men and women were taken care of when he was running.  His father was a career military man and Tuberville revered him. Coach Tuberville has not sought the spotlight and tried to become a Fox News darling and be a right wing ideologue. 

He has taken on a workhorse mentality and has voted consistently conservative and been a team player within the GOP Senate caucus.  Tuberville realizes that he will never be a Richard Shelby because he got there later in life after his career as a college football coach.  He has learned that seniority counts.  Arriving in the U. S. Senate at age 66 is not conducive to being a senate giant.  Seniority is king in Washington. Tuberville also understands the importance that defense spending and agriculture are to Alabama.  He is applying himself to protecting these two vital concerns as any senator from Alabama should strive to accomplish.

It is all about seniority in the U.S. Senate. It will be at least 15 years before anybody we elect to this senate seat has any real power to bring home the bacon.  Katie Britt is 40 and Mo Brooks is 68.  You can do the math as to which one has the potential to be effective for Alabama and build seniority and power.  Katie Britt not only has the youthfulness to gain seniority, but she also possesses the ability, acumen, and more importantly she wants to be an effective senator for Alabama and protect our military bases and jobs.

Mo Brooks has shown over his 40-year political career and more recently his 10-year congressional tenure that he does not want to be effective for Alabama.  He is more interested in bomb throwing than doing anything for his district or Alabama. Brooks could not be effective, even if he wanted to.  He will be 69 and the Republican leadership would dismiss him as a rightwing gadfly and an old one at that.

The wildcard in the Senate race is one Mike Durant. He came out of the blue three months ago and has bombarded the airwaves with a constant saturation of television ads. He has run a total media campaign with no one-on-one campaigning. Few people have ever met him. He is like a stealth candidate, who only appears on your television as a POW war hero. Durant, who hails from New Hampshire, is primarily self-funding his campaign. However, he is also being financed by a PAC headed by a wealthy donor Harriman, who wants to elect five independent non-partisan senators in the mold of Mitt Romney of Utah and Susan Collins of Maine, which would put Durant in a small group of liberal Democrats and Republicans. Durant may also be torpedoed by a family situation that has come to light recently.

The U.S. Senate race is fluid at this time with most people undecided on their choice. It will be interesting to watch.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

January 26, 2022 - Will Gambling Be Addressed in 2022?

As the final regular legislative session of the quadrennium evolves, it is apparent that the legislature will not touch any substantive or controversial issues, but simply pass the budgets and go home to campaign. It is election year in the Heart of Dixie.

If legislators are listening to their constituents, they are hearing one thing – Alabamians want their legislators to allow them the right to vote on receiving their fair share of the money from gambling in Alabama.  They are simply sick and tired of their money going to Georgia, Mississippi, Florida and Tennessee while Alabamians are paying for those states’ schools, roads and bridges.

You can bet your bottom dollar that if a clean lottery/sports betting referendum were to be placed on this November’s ballot, it would pass in a New York minute.  Even the most conservative folks in our state would vote for it, if for only one reason – they want their money to stay in state.  Every time there is one of these high dollar powerball national drawings, every convenience store on our border in the aforementioned bordering sister states’ parking lots are jammed with Alabamians clamoring to buy a lottery ticket.

Governor Kay Ivey has had a very accomplished five year reign as Governor.  The Rebuild Alabama road, bridge and infrastructure program was big and much needed.  Most of her successes have been housekeeping chores that required a governor, who was willing to put the state first and get these necessary projects accomplished instead of kicking the can down the road like some of her predecessors.  However, these accomplishments will not give her a legacy issue that 50 to 100 years from now folks can point to and say Kay Ivey has a legacy.

The legacy awaiting Governor Ivey is the creation of a Constitutional Amendment that garners the tremendous amount of money spent on gambling in Alabama and also a Gambling Regulatory Commission to monitor and police gaming. You are talking about some real money for Alabama.  Conservative estimates are $700 million a year to the state.  In addition, there would be 12,000 new jobs.

The legislature and governor by themselves cannot achieve this reaping of the gambling gold mine.  It would have to be approved by you – the voters of Alabama – in a Constitutional Amendment.  If polling is correct, it would pass 65-35. With it being a constitutional amendment, it needs a three-fifths vote in the legislature to place the initiative on the ballot. The issue was discussed, extensively, and voted on in the 2021 session.  It passed in the Senate but never was never put to a vote in the House. 

The Senate would pass it again.  There were 23 votes for the Constitutional Amendment and only 21 were needed for passage.  There needs to be 63 votes in the 105 member House to place the amendment on the ballot in this year’s November General Election.

Therefore, the question is will it be placed on the ballot this year for Alabamians to vote to reap this financial bonanza? In order to pass the Constitutional Amendment to allow Alabamians to vote on a lottery and expanded gambling, Governor Ivey probably will need to weigh in with both feet and promote the issue in a Special Session.

Because it is an election year, the legislature probably will not want to deal with the issue until after the elections.  The primary election is May 24.  The current regular session will end in April, so gambling probably will not be dealt with in this regular session.  Therefore, the best way to get the amendment on the ballot is a special session during the month of June because it has to be done by the first of July to get on the November ballot. However, with most legislators being unopposed they may take the bull by the horns and pass the constitutional amendment for you to vote on in November without the need for a special session.

In observing the legislature, it is bittersweet seeing Speaker of the House Mac McCutcheon presiding over probably his last session as Speaker.  He has done an excellent job as Speaker.  He is a kind, even tempered gentleman, who exudes integrity.  He is decisive and fair, and you can tell he is a man of faith who truly cares about the House members, both Republicans and Democrats.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

January 19, 2022 - Annual Legislative Session Underway

The 2022 annual regular session of the legislature has begun.  It began January 11 and constitutionally can last three and one-half months, which would have it ending at the end of April.

This is the last year of the quadrennium and an election year.  Therefore, the legislature will not address any controversial or substantive issues.  This has always been the case in Alabama politics.  This rule will ring true this year as it has in past years.  They will come into session, pass the budgets, then go home to campaign.  They may even adjourn early this year, probably the first part of April.

It will be an easy year, budget wise.  The General Fund and Special Education Trust Fund will again have growth in revenue.  The economy is still percolating from the COVID recovery, especially because of the influx of federal dollars. 

Alabama will have received over four billion dollars from the Federal American Rescue Plan (ARP) COVID relief money.  Almost half has been earmarked and given to schools, counties and cities and will not be allocated by the legislature.

The state received over $500 million in 2021.  Most of that, over $400 million, went to build new prisons, which was the most significant achievement last year.  There will be approximately $560 million of ARP money coming into Alabama for this year.  The legislature will be able to play Santa Claus in an election year.  The General Fund Chairmen, Steve Clouse (R-Ozark) in the House and Greg Albritton (R-Escambia) in the Senate, are being lobbied heavily as might be expected.  They will be looking at several ways to disburse these federal dollars.  The feds like the states to focus on rural broadband expansion, water and sewage projects, and hospitals and nursing homes. It will be a short and successful and non-controversial session.

Governor Ivey will miss her right arm, Jo Bonner.  He has served as a quasi-governor for the past three years.  Kay Ivey and Jo Bonner have a lifetime bond.  They are both from Wilcox County, and like family. This remote rural black belt, southwest Alabama county has spawned Jeff Sessions, Kay Ivey, Judy Bonner and Jo Bonner.  Jeff, Kay and Judy are all about the same age.  Jo is about 15 years younger and like Kay’s little brother.  Kay has never not known Jo Bonner.   He has been the most influential Chief of Staff to a governor in state history.  

In November 2021, it was announced that Jo Bonner will become President of the University of South Alabama. He will be the fourth president of the University of South Alabama, which is the third largest university in the state. Jo Bonner is perfect for this position. His decade as a congressman from Mobile and his prowess as an economic developer and civic leader coupled with his winning personality will propel the university in Mobile to a regional educational and medical center for Alabama, Mississippi and Northwest Florida.  He is revered in Washington.  His political connections and persona will make the University of South Alabama a politically powerful institution.

The governor made a wise and prudent move to fill the void left by Jo Bonner’s departure from the governor’s office.  She made her loyal, dedicated and extremely qualified ally, Liz Filmore, Chief of Staff.  Liz had already been functioning as a quasi-Chief of Staff to Ivey and Bonner.  

A few months ago, Ivey adroitly convinced State Representative Bill Poole of Tuscaloosa to become her finance director.  Poole is immensely and uniquely qualified for finance director.  He served over a decade in the House of Representatives. Eight of those years he chaired the Education Budget Committee and wrote the State Education budget.  He was and still is one of the most universally well-liked and respected legislators in the state.  Bill will remain finance director and Liz will be Chief of Staff.  They will be part of what Governor Ivey will rely on as her leadership team.  The other two members of the four-person team will be Brooks McClendon and Nathan Lindsey, who will be elevated to Deputy Chief of Staff.  Governor Ivey along with Jo Bonner has run an exemplary Ship of State administratively.  

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

January 12, 2022 - U.S. Senate Race is our 2022 Election Year Premier Contest

This year’s midterm congressional elections will be the political story of the year in American politics. The U.S. House of Representatives will be in play big time.  Whichever party has the majority has all the power.

Currently the Democrats have a very small majority. Polling and history reveal that Republicans are poised to pick up a large number of seats and gain back a majority in the House and will more than likely gain a slim majority in the U.S. Senate where there is currently an even 50 to 50 split, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris having the tie breaking vote that gives the teetering majority to the Democrats. 

History has portended without deviation to a clear historical political fact that the party that wins the White House and concurrently House seats loses those seats in the next midterm elections.  It is usually a significant pickup, especially when there is a Democratic president.

Early polling indicates this will happen this year. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings are abysmal, which will spill over into the swing House districts throughout the country. The first revealing salvo occurred in November in the Democratic State of Virginia when voters elected a Republican Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General and the majority of Virginia House delegates. A Republican takeover of the U.S. House will affect Alabama favorably because our House delegation is made up of six Republicans and one lone Democrat. 

The marquee event for this year, politically, in Alabama will be for the open seat of retiring Senior Senator Richard Shelby. The race has been ongoing for almost a year and will be decided in a few short months from now.  The election is May 24.  The runoff will be June 21. The winner of that runoff will be our next U.S. Senator.

The favorites to capture the seat are either Katie Britt or Mo Brooks. Recent reliable polling reveals a close dead even contest between Brooks and Britt.

Mo Brooks is the current congressman from the 5th Congressional District, which encompasses Huntsville and the Tennessee Valley. There is probably not a congressional district in the entire country that has benefited more from federal spending than the Huntsville Redstone Arsenal. Brooks has not been helpful in this attraction of federal dollars to his district. The heavy lifting towards Huntsville’s growth has fallen onto the shoulders of Senator Richard Shelby. Brooks has been an obstacle to Huntsville’s federally funded prosperity. Brooks is seen in Washington as a right-wing gadfly nut that is more interested in finding a Fox News camera than helping his District or State. His claim to fame is that he is currently the endorsed candidate of former President Donald Trump.

Katie Boyd Britt is the mainstream, rational, conservative candidate.  She is the choice of the pro-business, pro-growth Republican establishment in the state. She is the former CEO of the Business Council in the state. She has received the endorsement of most business groups as well as the coveted Alabama Farmers Federation. The business community sees her as a stable, reliable, and youthful successor to Shelby.  

Katie Britt and Mo Brooks will both be well funded. Britt has outdistanced Brooks in fundraising. However, Brooks will be bolstered by the right-wing Washington conglomerate Club for Growth and may be able to match Britt dollar for dollar. It will be an expensive race. 

The wildcard in the contest is the entry of one Mike Durant. He announced his entry about two months ago and immediately began a bombardment of excellent television and radio ads. Durant is a decorated war hero and POW, who came to Huntsville from New Hampshire and built his own successful business from scratch. He has a real story that if told well, will sell. In fact, it already has begun to sell. The hidden fact in the recent polling, which shows Britt and Brooks knotted at about 30 percent each, reveals that Durant is polling at 15 percent after only one month in the race. Durant is the wildcard in this race.

Katie Britt’s polling numbers are good. They show her trending upward. She is also the only candidate with a grassroots organization. She has campaigned in every county in the state, while Brooks’ handlers have worked to keep him off the campaign trail in fear that he will go off script and implode which he has tendency to do.

It would not surprise me that if Durant can sustain his ads for four months, which will be a heavy lift of his personal assets, that when the votes are counted on May 24, you may have a Katie Britt vs. Mike Durant runoff on June 21. It will be fun race to watch.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

January 5, 2022 - Election Year is Here

Happy New Year.  It is election year in the good ole Heart of Dixie.

Alabama, like a good many southern states, has our monumental political year in what the nation refers to as the off-year or midterm election year cycle. This reference is, of course, to the presidential election being the main political event. Thus, the last presidential race being 2020 and the next main presidential race being 2024.

Most states have their gubernatorial election year at the same time as the presidential contest. We are different, we have our big year in off-years. 

This new year of 2022 will see our constitutional offices up for election, including Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner, State Treasurer, Secretary of State and State Auditor. Not only does the governor and all constitutional offices run this year, but so do all 67 sheriffs and all 140 legislative and state senate seats.

The governor’s race has historically been the premier political race in Alabama politics. It is the pinnacle or brass ring of our political world. Therefore, we old time political folks refer to this year as the gubernatorial year.  

Qualifying began January 4 and ends January 28. The GOP and Democratic Primary elections will be May 24. The runoff election is set for June 21.  The winner of the Republican Primary will be elected governor. Winning the GOP nomination for statewide office in Alabama is tantamount to election.  No serious candidate would run as a Democrat.

It was thought that Governor Kay Ivey would coast to reelection with only token opposition. After all, polling reveals that she is one of the most popular incumbent governors in the country. She has done a good job as governor and will be tough to beat.  However, in recent weeks two viable candidates have announced that they are running for governor. Lynda “Lyndy” Blanchard and Tim James are attempting to outflank her on the right. These two are viable candidates for one reason – they have individual wealth, which allows them the ability to acquire name identification and voter approval.

Lyndy Blanchard launched a campaign for our open senate seat in early 2021. However, by year’s end she flipped a switch and moved to the governor’s race. Her only claim to being qualified to run for governor is that she bought an ambassadorship to Slovenia in the administration of former president, Donald Trump.  Her only hope for the governor’s race is that she can wish for Trump to endorse her.  Although this would probably not be enough. As a lame duck, who has been out of the White House for over a year and who’s popularity is waning, his nod may not be as important as once thought. Blanchard’s only calling card is that she flashed $5 million on her senate campaign filing reports.  It remains to be seen if indeed she spends that much of her own money on an uphill race for governor.

Tim James is making his third race for governor.  He is the son of two time governor Fob James.  Tim is a likeable fellow, is extremely conservative, and harps on fringe social issues like outlawing Yoga in schools.  He like Blanchard possesses the main ingredient to make himself a viable candidate.  He has some personal wealth and if he indeed spends some of his money, he can garner a certain segment of the vote.

If Kay Ivey sticks to her knitting, stays home and governs, and looks gubernatorial and does not beat herself, she will more than likely prevail.

The big question is can this full field of candidates, including Tim James, Lyndy Blanchard, Stacy George and Dean Odle, force Kay Ivey into a runoff or will she defeat the field without a runoff like she did in 2018? That question will be answered on May 24.

The power of incumbency will be omnipotent in the other statewide constitutional offices. Lieutenant Governor Will Ainsworth will be reelected with no or token opposition. The same applies for Attorney General Steve Marshall. He will be reelected to another four-year term unscathed. Interestingly, Ainsworth and Marshall are from the same North Alabama County of Marshall.  

Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate will escape opposition and will be reelected to that important state post for another four-years.  State Treasurer Young Boozer will coast to reelection, probably unopposed. 

The power of incumbency prevails in the Heart of Dixie in 2022. However, we will have a doozy of a contest for our open United States Senate Seat, which we will discuss next week.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

December 29, 2021 - We Lost Some Good Ones in 2021

As has been my custom for 18 years, I like for my yearend column to be a remembrance of Alabama political figures who have passed away during the year.

We lost some good ones this year. We lost our oldest past governor, John Patterson in June.  Governor Patterson passed away at age 99 at his ancestral home in rural Tallapoosa County surrounded by his family.

Patterson was Governor from 1959-1963. He defeated George Wallace in the 1958 Governor’s Race, which featured a field of 14 candidates. He is the only man to beat George Wallace in a governor’s race. Patterson was Attorney General of Alabama prior to being elected Governor.  He subsequently was appointed to the Court of Criminal Appeals by Wallace and was reelected numerous times and retired as a Judge of the Alabama Court of Appeals. He was a treasure trove of Alabama political history. He was Governor during a turbulent time in Alabama history.

Former Alabama Attorney General Jimmy Evans died in February at 81. Evans was a native of Montgomery and was Montgomery County District Attorney prior to being elected Attorney General.

Retired Alfa lobbyist Milton Parsons passed away in March at 91. Milton was renowned on Goat Hill as a straight arrow and straight shooter. He was an honest, trustworthy, Christian gentleman.  He was Alfa’s chief lobbyist for 50 years. He was a devoted family man and devout Christian.

Former Troy mayor, Jimmy Lunsford died in May at 78. He was mayor of Troy for 30 years. Economic development was his forte. He was a tremendous steward of the city’s finances. He left Troy in good shape financially.  

Former Mobile congressman Sonny Callahan passed away at 88 in late June.  He was one of a long line of popular and effective congressmen from the first district. The list includes Frank Boykin, Jack Edwards, Jo Bonner, Bradley Byrne and Sonny. Congressman Callahan served 10 terms in the U.S. House of Representatives.  Prior to his two decades in Congress, he served in the Alabama House of Representatives and then six years in the State Senate. He was successful in the trucking business in conjunction with his legislative and congressional career.

State Representative Thad McClammy of Montgomery passed away at 79 in August. McClammy represented parts of Montgomery County for 27 years. I had the privilege to serve with Thad in the legislature. He was a real gentleman. His word was as good as gold. He had a tremendous turnout for his funeral. State Senator Kirk Hatcher did a fabulous job singing two favorite hymns.

Former State Legislator and longtime Geneva County Probate Judge Harold Wise died in August at 96 years old. He lived an amazing and colorful life. He was a loved and respected Geneva County political figure. He was the uncle to Supreme Court Justice Kelli Wise. Kelli adored him. He was her mentor. She says he sparked her love of politics and her desire to have a career in public service.

Retired Winston-Marion County Circuit Judge Bobby Aderholt passed away in September at 85. He was a 50-year public servant, as well as lay minister. People say he probably married or buried half the folks in and around Haleyville and that part of Northwest Alabama. There was a tremendous turn out for his funeral. He was revered. State Senator Greg Reed sang at his funeral. Judge Aderholt was the father of our senior congressman, Robert Aderholt who is completing his 25th year in Congress.

Former State Senator Jim Preuitt of Talladega died in September at 86. He was also a State Representative and Probate Judge of Talladega County. He was a successful businessman and family man.

We lost some good ones this year. 

Happy New Year!

by Steve Flowers