December 14, 2022 - Two Jefferson County Legends Retire
As we begin to celebrate the Christmas season and close out 2022, allow me to share the story of two great Jefferson County/Alabama political legends.
Alabama Supreme Court Justice, Mike Bolin, is retiring at the end of the year from the state’s highest judicial tribunal. Judge Bolin is a young 72 and would not have retired and would have sought and been elected to another six-year term if it were not for an antiquated state law that disallows someone running for a judgeship in the state after age 70. Justice Bolin is one of the most popular and well-respected judges in Alabama.
He is a big man, physically and figuratively. He is beloved throughout the state, but especially in his native Jefferson County. Mike Bolin was born in and is a lifelong resident of Jefferson County. He attended elementary and high school in Homewood, and graduated from Shades Valley High School in 1966, with honors. He stayed in Homewood for college graduated from Samford University with a degree in Business Administration in 1970. He then continued on and got his law degree from Samford University’s Cumberland School of Law. He graduated from law school in 1973. He was on the Dean’s list and was associate editor of the Law Review.
Judge Bolin was a practicing attorney in Birmingham from 1973 through 1988. In 1988 he was first elected Probate Judge of Jefferson County. He was reelected Probate Judge of Alabama’s largest County in 1994, and again in 2020. He served in that position until his election to the Alabama Supreme Court in January 2004. He began serving on the Supreme Court in January 2005. Thus, at the end of his tenure in six weeks, he will have served 18 years on the high court.
Justice Bolin and his wife Rosemary have one daughter, Leigh Anne. Mike Bolin is known and respected for his integrity, humility, and kindness.
Another Jefferson County legend, Tony Petelos, retired from public service last year. Tony is a lifelong resident of Jefferson County and is a real American and Alabama success story. Tony Petelos has carved out a niche in Jefferson County and Alabama political history.
His parents are first generation immigrants. His family fled Greece when Mussolini and later Hitler invaded and decimated Greece. His father fought in the Greek Army and then later became a member of the United States Army. Tony is the youngest of nine children. He had five siblings born in Greece, one died in the war. His father made it to the United States in 1947. His mother arrived in 1950. They had four sons born in America. Tony is the youngest. His father and mother settled in Ensley. Tony’s father was in the construction business and became quite successful. Tony and his three older brothers joined their father in the family business. He earned his college degree at UAB while working during the day. He met his wife Teresa while both were studying at UAB. She became a Jefferson County Circuit Judge and served 18 years on the bench.
Tony began his political career in 1986. He defeated an incumbent and became one of only 14 Republicans in the 105 member House of Representatives. He was reelected in 1990 and again in 1994. In 1997, after 11 years in the House, Governor Fob James named Tony Commissioner of the Department of Human Resources for the State of Alabama. He was reappointed Human Resources Commissioner by Governor Don Siegelman in 1998 and served through 2001.
In 2004, Tony Petelos was elected Mayor of the City of Hoover, one of the state’s largest cities. He served eight years as mayor and earned a reputation as one of the state’s premier municipal administrators. In 2011, the Jefferson County government was in chaos to say the least. The County Commission lured Tony away from Hoover to be the Administrator of Jefferson County’s government. He cleaned up the corruption and financial problems and spent 10 years in that position. He retired about this time last year at 69. He and his wife, Judge Petelos, are doing well. They live in the same home they have lived in for the last 24 years in Hoover. They have two adult daughters, who they are very proud of. Tony’s story is a great Alabama political success story.
Happy Holidays.
December 7, 2022 - Some Legislative Leaders Retire and Pass Away
Allow me to share the stories of three of my favorite legislative colleagues. Two of these gentlemen are retiring from the Alabama House of Representatives this year, and one passed away in April.
Representative Victor Gaston of Mobile and Representative Howard Sanderford of Huntsville are going home. A third legend and true gentleman, Steve McMillan of Baldwin County, passed away during the last session in April.
Representative Victor Gaston is Speaker Pro Tem of the House. Victor is retiring after 40 years in the legislature. He decided that at age 79 and having spent half of his entire life in the legislature, that the timing was right to end his career and not run for reelection. Gaston, who was an educator by profession and also has family timber interests, lost the love of his life, Jean, only two years ago. They were married for 46-years and were very close. You can tell he misses her immensely. His two sons, Hank and George, have been helpful to him.
Victor was first elected to the House in 1982. In that year, he was only one of eight Republicans in the 105 member House. His district is an affluent silk stocking area of Mobile, and one of the few areas that voted Republican in local races in that era.
He serves as a deacon of the Springhill Baptist Church. Additionally, he is active in Mobile with the Penelope House, Home of Grace for Women and the Mobile Mental Health Center. Besides serving as Pro Tem in the legislature, he has been active with the American Legislative Exchange Council and is on the State Building Commission.
Victor and I came to the House as freshmen together in 1982, and became and remain good friends. I like to give my friends nicknames, I dubbed him, “To the Victor goes the spoils.” He is a formal person and seemed to enjoy the frivolity of the term. Also in our class were Spencer Bachus, Beth Marietta Lyons, and Mo Brooks to name a few.
My friend Howard Sanderford came to the Alabama House of Representatives in January of 1989. We became fast friends. He succeeded my friend, Steve Hettinger, who became mayor of Huntsville. Howard has represented the 20th District which is comprised of southeast Huntsville. He was elected to this very Republican district seven times and has served a total of 33 years. He was a true blue business Republican, who was perfect for that district. He represented his people well with class and distinction. Howard was an accountant by profession and had a successful career with IBM, retired early, and was able to serve in the legislature with ample time and without the need for the renumeration.
He is a devoted family man. Howard and his wife Dot are very close. She accompanied him to Montgomery most of the time during his 33 years in the legislature. They are active members of the First Baptist Church of Huntsville. At 87 Howard felt like it was time to retire from his second career.
Our friend, Representative Steve McMillan of Baldwin County, passed away at 80 in April after a tough bout with cancer. Steve was a great man and great legislator. He was a quiet yet very friendly gentleman. Steve served with distinction for 43 years in the House of Representatives. He was a very diligent and well prepared legislator. He was extremely conservative in a dignified way. He was not flamboyant and would seldom go to the well and speak. Yet, when he did, people listened. He was well-respected and knew what he was talking about. He exuded class and epitomized the term gentleman. Steve is survived by his wife Gayle, two sons, and six grandchildren.
The House is losing a lot of experience and leadership with the loss of Steve McMillan and Victor Gaston, and Howard Sanderford.
Coupled with the decision by Speaker of the House, Mac McCutcheon, to not seek reelection, this will leave a void in the Speaker and Pro Tem posts in the House. In addition, the House is losing veterans Mike Ball (R-Huntsville), Allen Farley (R-Jefferson), L.L. Brown (R-Jacksonville) and Harry Shiver (R-Baldwin).
The state and many of us will miss these folks.
See you next week.
November 30, 2022 - Alabama’s Big 10 Mayors Are Influential
Students of Alabama political history will rightly remember the 2022 midterm election. This election saw the majority of Alabama voters cast their ballots for Katie Britt, who will be the first woman elected to represent Alabama in the U.S. Senate. Governor Kay Ivey easily coasted to victory to gain her second full term in office, continuing her reign as the first Republican woman to serve as Governor. Republicans from the top of the ballot on down cemented their control of the state government by huge margins.
On top of all this, I suspect that students of Alabama politics will also note 2022 as the year that a new political force emerged on the scene. For the first time this cycle, the Alabama Big 10 Mayors – as the name suggests, the mayors of the state’s ten biggest cities – flexed their political muscle and put their support behind the Aniah’s Law constitutional amendment, which received a staggering 1,018,004 “yes” votes, more than any other item on the ballot.
For those who are not aware of this emerging new group, the mayors of Alabama’s ten biggest cities joined together to use their collective influence to advocate for public policy positions that they believe will make Alabama a safer, more prosperous state.
If you happen to live in the metro areas of Birmingham, Huntsville, Madison, Mobile, Montgomery, Auburn, Tuscaloosa, Dothan, Hoover or Decatur – you live in the orbit of this group’s sphere of influence.
While these mayors have been meeting regularly for several years to discuss issues like crime, infrastructure, and economic development, this election cycle marks the first time they have weighed in on electoral politics. Through a focus on local media, these mayors were able to ensure that this popular proposal stayed top-of-mind for Alabama voters. In fact, the late push against the referendum from both the far left and far right of the political spectrum was likely a reaction to the media coverage and public support that these mayors generated.
Their advantage is not just in the media. They are a bipartisan group, with credibility on both the right and left sides of the aisle. They are popular, and many are serving their third or even fourth terms. They are geographically diverse, with representation from Huntsville to Mobile to the Wiregrass. Finally, they represent a whole lot of Alabamians – approximately 75% percent of the state lives in one of their metro areas.
As our state works to attract new residents and grapple with brain drain, policymakers would do well to listen to what these mayors have to say. It is clear that the future of Alabama depends on successful cities that can attract and retain the types of people who work in our booming space, medical research, and advanced manufacturing industries. Ignoring our cities is a recipe for decreasing competitiveness across the state.
If you think we are a rural, small town state you are mistaken. In case you missed my earlier statement, a clear three-fourths of all Alabamians now live in one of our 10 major cities in the state.
Most of the real governing in the state is done by mayors. Being mayor of a city is where the rubber meets the road. It is the governmental constant where everyday problems are resolved.
The gentlemen who comprise the group of the Big 10 mayors are hardworking, true public servants. They are doing their job day-in-and-day-out without fanfare and without an eye towards moving up statewide or to Washington. They love their cities and are governing them well.
Representing the largest cities in Alabama, the Big 10 mayors include Auburn Mayor Ron Anders, Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin, Decatur Mayor Tab Bowling, Dothan Mayor Mark Saliba, Hoover Mayor Frank Brocato, Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle, Madison Mayor Paul Finley, Mobile Mayor Sandy Stimpson, Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed, and Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox.
It is interesting and noteworthy that two of the Big 10 cities are suburban enclaves of two of our large metropolitan areas. Hoover is one of the largest cities in the state and is an outgrowth of Birmingham. If census trends continue the next 10 years the same as the last, Hoover may be a larger city than Birmingham. It more than likely will be in 20 years.
However, if those same trends stay in place Huntsville will continue to be Alabama’s largest city. One of the most revealing things to note is that Madison, a suburb of Huntsville, is one of the 10 largest cities in Alabama.
The Big 10 Mayors should have a big story for a long time to come.
See you next week.
November 23, 2022 - All Politics Is No Longer Local
The legendary Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Tip O’Neill, is credited with coining the slogan, “all politics is local.” He quoted it often and lived it.
The old Boston machine Democratic politician went home to his Irish neighborhood every week. He knew everyone in his blue collar district. He knew who was kin to whom. He knew their names, birthdays, parents, grandparents, and children. He did favors, made sure their mail was delivered, lost Social Security checks were found, and even made sure that potholes were fixed and streetlights replaced. He lived the saying, “all politics is local.”
He also worked in Washington in an era of bipartisanship. They worked and socialized with each other regardless of party affiliation to get things done. It was well known that Tip O’Neill and Ronald Reagan were best friends and drinking buddies when Reagan was the Republican President and O’Neill was Speaker. That is why Reagan was so successful as President. He had O’Neill as a friend.
It was certainly a different day in Washington than today. Democrats and Republicans now not only do not work together, they do not even talk to each other. They despise and denounce each other more than Reagan and O’Neill hated and denounced the Russians.
For years, in my column as well as in college classrooms, lectures and speeches around the state, I have declared the cornerstone of political theory, “all politics is local,” as a truism. However, as we end this 2022 election year and begin the 2024 presidential election campaign, I am changing my song and dance.
My theory now is that all politics is no longer local. All politics today is national. It is all partisan based and derived from national and Washington politics. Folks are either in the Republican tribe or the Democratic tribe and it applies nationally, and especially in Alabama.
Seventy-five years ago, Alabama was a rural state. Alabama voters were much more interested in the sheriff’s race than presidential races. In fact, Alabamians very seldom even voted in presidential contests. There were more votes cast in an off year Democratic primary for sheriff and governor than in presidential years. That has changed dramatically. Alabama is a more urban state than rural. Today, Alabamians follow national congressional and presidential politics and could not care less who is the sheriff of their urban county.
In the just completed Jefferson County Sheriff’s race, it was a Democrat vs Republican contest. Personalities were irrelevant. The Democrat, Pettway, won because he was Democrat. Hudson lost because he was a Republican. They could have been named Jones and Smith rather than Pettway and Hudson and neither campaigned and the results would have been the same.
This 2022 election confirmed and solidified the fact that Alabama is a Ruby Red hardcore Republican state in statewide elections. Twenty-three out of 23 statewide elected offices are held by Republicans.
The three candidates, Kay Ivey, Katie Britt and Wes Allen, who each had a Democrat opponent got 66% of the vote. The Republicans, who had only Libertarian opposition, like Rick Pate, Young Boozer and Will Ainsworth, got 84%. Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth got the most votes, about 960,000. He also got the most votes of any contested candidate in 2018. This will hold him in good stead as he eyes the 2026 governor’s race.
The Democratic Party is dead and irrelevant on the state level in the Heart of Dixie. Everybody with walking around sense knows this. That is why no serious candidate will run as a Democrat. Some idealistic Democrats will write me and lament that the Alabama Democratic Party leadership is inept. My reply is that it is irrelevant whether you have a Democratic Party office in Alabama or not, the result of Alabama races is going to be the same, all politics is national, now. The vote is driven from Washington.
The same is true of the Alabama Republican Party. It does not matter who is the Chairman of the Alabama GOP, the GOP vote in Alabama will be the same. In fact the current GOP Chairman is a butterfly farmer and his butterflies probably know more about Alabama politics than he does.
Folks, Alabama is in the Republican tribe, make no doubt about it. Our largest metropolitan counties of Jefferson and Montgomery are in the Democratic column.
As I have said for the past 20 years, if Mickey Mouse is the Republican candidate for President, he will carry Alabama even if he does not campaign or spend any money here and the same applies to the governor’s race. Why? Because all politics today is national.
Happy Thanksgiving.
November 16, 2022 - Jo Bonner Inaugurated as President of USA
Jo Bonner was officially sworn in as the fourth president of the University of South Alabama on September 23, 2022.
The University of South Alabama is the crown jewel and flagship of the Alabama Gulf Coast. It is a sprawling, manicured, beautiful and functional modern campus. It is currently the third largest university in the state. Under the leadership of President Jo Bonner, it will grow and prosper to where within the next decade it will be thought of as one of our premier “Big Three” major flagship universities along with the University of Alabama and Auburn University.
Its location as the only major university in the populous metropolitan Mobile/Baldwin growth area of our state, coupled with having the University of South Alabama Medical School and Center on the campus, portends for exponential growth and prosperity for the University of South Alabama.
The prosperity for USA is assured by the selection of Josiah R. Bonner, Jr. as President. Over the next decade, he will be thought of in the same terms and same breath as the legendary founding President of USA, Frederick Whiddon, who oversaw the first 35 years of USA.
There has never been a more perfect selection to be the leader of a major university in our state than the appointment of Jo Bonner as President of USA. His knowledge of the business, civic, and social community of the Mobile/Baldwin area is unique. Through his decade of service as their congressman, he is an integral part of the Mobile community.
He left Congress with the highest regard and admiration. He was so well respected by his congressional colleagues that he was Chairman of the U.S. House Ethics Committee. You can be assured that there is no university president, lobbyist, or board of trustee member who can walk the halls of Congress and bring home the bacon from the limitless federal trough than Josiah Bonner, Jr. You can also rest assured that there is no university president in the state that has the clout and reverence on Goat Hill in Montgomery than Josiah Bonner, Jr. This is a very unique and perfect blend for prosperity and growth for USA.
It is well known in political circles that Jo Bonner is Governor Kay Ivey’s closest confidante. He served as her Chief of Staff for four years. Their families go back as friends and relatives in Wilcox County for generations. Jo Bonner’s father, the first Josiah Bonner was Probate Judge of Wilcox County. Jo is the baby of the family, a good 15 years younger than his brother, Jim, who grew up as friends and in school together with Governor Kay Ivey. Jo’s sister, Judy, and Senator Jeff Sessions were in school together in grades K-12, then Jo came much later.
The aforementioned sister, Judy Bonner, was President of the University of Alabama. Never before in Alabama’s history has there been two siblings be president of major universities in Alabama.
Jo Bonner actually became President of USA in January. The official inaugural event was September 23. It was a magnificent program. Governor Ivey gave the keynote address. She beamed with pride as she talked about her “little brother” from Wilcox County. Dr. Jack Hawkins the 30 year Chancellor of the Troy University System gave a brilliant address. He spoke for all of the university presidents in the state as the Dean of University Presidents.
Jo Bonner’s family was recognized, beginning with his sister, President Judy Bonner. His wife, Janee, along with his two outstanding children, son Robin and daughter Lee, were in attendance.
The Inaugural Event was held in the magnificent Mitchell Center. The Mitchell family have been major benefactors to USA. Mrs. Arlene Mitchell is Chairman of the Board of Trustees. Another Board of Trustees member is Dr. Steve Stokes, a radiology oncologist from Dothan. He and his wife Angela have been generous donors to USA, also. Stokes Hall is the newest dorm on campus.
It was truly fitting that Jo Bonner had a throng of political dignitaries attend his Inaugural Event. It was like a political gathering of Who’s Who in Alabama politics visiting on the floor of the Mitchell Center prior to Jo’s inauguration. The list of attendees is too long to enumerate. However, in addition to Governor Ivey was Mac McCutchen, John McMillan, John Merrill, Bobby Singleton, Vivian Figures, Young Boozer, Bill Poole, Twinkle Cavanaugh, Sandy Stimpson, Will and Liz Filmore, Cathy Randall, Gordon and Ellen Stone, Jim Purcell, Victor Gaston, Chip Brown, Margie Wilcox, Alan Baker, and Judge Sarah Stewart, just to name a few.
They were all there to honor a man who is revered and respected in Alabama – Josiah “Jo” Bonner.
November 9, 2022 - Kay Ivey is Governor Again
Governor Kay Ivey’s 2022 reelection victory run has been very impressive. Some of you may be wondering how quickly I have been able to resolve that she has indeed culminated her victorious run when the General Election was held Tuesday and my column’s published date is Wednesday. It is simply as I have told you numerous times over the past two decades, winning the Republican Primary for governor in the Heart of Dixie is tantamount to election. The General Election is Alabama is an afterthought. We are a one-party state when it comes to statewide races.
Kay Ivey laid to rest the last hope of the Alabama Democrats being able to win a statewide race, especially for governor in my lifetime and probably in yours, when she beat Walt Maddox like a rented mule in 2018.
Walt Maddox was the best shot and best mule the Democrats could ever dream up. Maddox is the young, articulate mayor of Tuscaloosa. He has been and had been mayor of the Druid City for a good while. He has been an excellent mayor with an impeccable record. He ran a good well run, well financed campaign for governor. He got 40% of the vote. This seems to be the threshold for a Democrat for governor.
Therefore, Kay Ivey’s 2022 run may not be as impressive as her 2018 race. Although, this run has been extremely impressive. Probably the reason that 2022 has gone so well is because she ran so well in 2018. She beat a very formidable field four years ago. She beat the popular mayor of Huntsville, Tommy Battle, in the Republican Primary. His credentials and fundraising prowess were equal to Maddox’s, if not better.
Having beaten the 2018 thoroughbreds, Battle and Maddox, so thoroughly, made serious candidates not even consider challenging her. In 2022, to compare Lindy Blanchard, Tim James and Yolanda Flowers to Tommy Battle and Walt Maddox is like comparing Mutt to Jeff.
Governor Kay Ivey has done a good job as governor during the four years, 2019-2022, and folks knew that, and they knew her. There also have not been any scandals or controversy. She had garnered one of the finest men and managers in Alabama political history, Congressman Jo Bonner, to be her right arm and Chief of Staff. They together ran a pretty solid ship of state.
Most of us who follow Alabama politics felt like Kay was going to only serve one four-year term when she won the 2018 race. She, deep down, may have thought the same thing. Therefore, she governed with the attitude of what is right for the state and not what is right for reelection.
When she decided to run, most of us were in agreement that she would win. She would be well financed, and national polls revealed that she was one of the most popular incumbent governors in the nation.
My thoughts were and I conveyed to you, that the only way Kay Ivey could lose the race was if she beat herself. If she misspoke or did a debate and made a miscue or misstep. She did none of the above.
She ran a perfectly scripted, flawless campaign. She campaigned as governor and looked gubernatorial. Most importantly, her campaign TV ads were brilliant. They were folksy with the perfect Alabama flavor. They had her looking good, speaking well and southern with a grandmotherly appeal. They made her age and demeanor an advantage. She came out of the campaign being better liked than before. Some of her ads came close to being racist when she said, “Folks think we ought to require our schools to teach everyone to speak Spanish. Well, I say, ‘No Way Jose’.” This prompted ultra-liberal Democrats around the nation to deride her. When Maxine Waters, the liberal Democratic California Congresswoman criticized her, Kay quipped, “I ought to give Maxine Waters an in-kind contribution proxy for her help in my Alabama Republican Primary campaign.”
The big question in the Republican Primary was whether Kay Ivey could win the May 24 Primary without having to go to a June 21 runoff to win. Some doubted that anyone could beat eight opponents without a runoff, especially given that Blanchard and James spent a total of $16 million dollars. She proved them wrong. She beat the field of eight without a runoff and got 54% percent of the vote.
My guess is that she got a higher percent than that on Tuesday.
Kay Ivey is Governor, again.
November 2, 2022 - Election Year Observations
This 2022 Election Year in Alabama has been monumental and memorable. Any gubernatorial year is big in the state. It is the brass ring of Alabama politics to be governor. However, the race to succeed our Senior Senator Richard Shelby has been the marquee contest. This year will be the last hurrah for our two leading political figures in the state.
Senator Richard Shelby is retiring after 36 years in the U.S. Senate at age 88. Governor Kay Ivey will be elected to her final term as Governor at 78.
An observation that occurred to me during the year that many of you may not know or realize is the power that Jimmy Rane, the legendary successful businessman from Abbeville, possesses. He is known to many Alabamians as the famous friendly giant sitting atop a horse as the Yella Fella on the ads of yesteryear promoting his Great Southern Wood Company.
In my years of observing Alabama politics, I do not believe there has been an individual that has been the closest confidant and friend to the two most powerful political people in the state. Senator Shelby and Governor Ivey are unquestionably the two most powerful political people in the state, but they are arguably two of the most important political figures in modern Alabama political history. If you sat both Ivey and Shelby down and asked them to tell you their best friend and confidant, they both would probably say Jimmy Rane.
Governor Ivey and Rane have been friends and allies since their college days at Auburn University 60 years ago. Shelby and Rane have been bonded for at least 36 years. As busy as Senator Shelby has been as one of the most important leaders in Washington and world affairs, the last 10 years a week does not go by that Shelby and Rane do not talk. Rane knows when Shelby has a cold before his wife Annette knows. Rane has been Ivey’s and Shelby’s benefactor and ally for not what they can do for him. He does not get anything out of his relationship with Shelby and Ivey. He is just their friend.
He is also loyal to his hometown of Abbeville and Henry County. The Great Southern Wood is the main thing in Abbeville and a mainstay for the entire Wiregrass. His benevolence to his hometown is unparalleled.
Another development I have watched this year is some good old fashioned hardnosed hard work on the campaign trail by some of the 2022 candidates. It is understandable that those running for office on this year’s ballot would be on the campaign trail.
However, one Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh, the President of the Public Service Commission, has canvassed the rural counties of Alabama more extensively than most of the successful candidates running statewide this year. And, folks, her name was not even on the ballot this year. She runs for reelection to the PSC Presidency in 2024. To say that she will be unbeatable for reelection to her post as head of the PSC would be an understatement.
Twinkle Cavanaugh is probably the best known political figure in the state going forward in the post Richard Shelby/Kay Ivey era. She has run statewide numerous times and has been successful in most of those races. When you run that many times, you build a grassroots organization. Then you add that she has been Chairman of the Republican Party and a loyal supporter of popular past Republican presidents. She has not let any grass grow under her feet this year. She has watered that grassroots organization during this off year with one-on-one visits, especially to the remote rural counties of the state. Her diligence will pay off in future years. She is still young and a good bet to be governor or U.S. Senator one day.
Folks in Montgomery and throughout the state are glad to see State Senator Billy Beasley run again, successfully, for another term. He is one of the most well-liked and respected members of the upper chamber in the State Capitol. Billy is the only white Democrat in the Alabama Senate. Do not bet on his not running again in 2026. He is the youngest looking 82 year old I have ever seen and his brother Jere is the youngest 85 year old I have ever seen. They must have pretty good genes.
See you next week.
October 26, 2022 - General Election Is Upon Us
Believe it or not, our 2022 General Election is upon us, November 8 to be exact It seems to be going under the radar screen of most Alabama voters .There will be a record breaking low voter turnout because there are really no contested statewide races. Why? Because we are a one party state when it comes to state offices. All 21 of our state elective offices are held by Republicans. The Democratic party does not field serious candidates because it is a foregone conclusion that a Democrat cannot win an elective statewide races in the Heart of Dixie. The best they can hope for is 40%.
Thus, the Democratic candidates have no money to spend because nobody takes them seriously, and the Republican candidates, who are flush with campaign cash, do not want to waste their money because it is a foregone conclusion that they are going to win. Therefore, with not much money being spent for advertising, the average voter may not realize there is an election, which equals a very low turnout.
The real 2022 election was held in May and June when the Republican Primary took place. Winning the Republican Primary is tantamount to election in Alabama. Just because the real 2022 election was held in May instead of November does not mean it is not an important election. It is a very important election. All of our constitutional statewide offices are being elected for the next four years, including Governor, Attorney General, State Agriculture Commissioner, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, State Treasurer and State Auditor.
Governor Kay Ivey is the Republican nominee for Governor. She is seeking her second full term. This will probably be Kay’s last hurrah. She will win 60 to 40.
State Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate is the Republican nominee for this important Alabama post. He will be reelected 60 to 40. He did not even have an opponent in the Republican Primary.
Attorney General Steve Marshall is seeking his second term. He is a solid conservative Republican and will win easily.
Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth is going to be reelected to his second term on November 8. Like Marshall, there is no doubt that he is conservative.
Marshall and Ainsworth are young and formidable. They are also from the same county. It would be interesting if they faced off against each other in the 2026 Governor’s race.
Young Boozer will be elected to his third term as State Treasurer. He served two consecutive four-year terms, waited three years, took over from John McMillan a year ago, and will win another full term on November 8. He has done a tremendous job as Treasurer and is probably the most qualified person to ever serve as Treasurer in my lifetime. He will more than likely have the longest tenure as State Treasurer in state history.
Two young Republicans were elected to constitutional offices in June, Wes Allen as Secretary of State and Andrew Sorrell as State Auditor. Both have bright futures in Alabama politics.
Even though he is only 46, Wes Allen has already spent 15 years in elected office. He was Probate Judge of Pike County for 11 years and State Representative for Pike and Dale for 4 years. Secretary of State is an important post in state government.
There will be jockeying among Ainsworth, Marshall, Pate, Allen and Sorrell to see who gets the most votes on November 8 as all are eyeing the 2026 races. All have Libertarian opponents.
Forty-year old Katie Britt will be elected to her first of many to come six-year terms as our United States Senator. She will more than likely be the top vote getter on November 8. She is already being touted as a superstar in Washington.
For those of you who do vote, we have some important Constitutional Amendments on the ballot. Our original 1901 Constitution may be one of the most flawed and is the most amended in the nation. There is outdated, overtly racist language in our Constitution that has no relevance in today’s world and needs amending out.
The Alabama Citizens for Constitutional Reform, a group of outstanding Alabama leaders, has worked diligently to update our antiquated Constitution. I would encourage a “Yes” vote for the first constitutional amendment on the November ballot.
Hope all of you get a chance to vote.
See you next week.
October 19, 2022 - Congressional Delegation Reelected in November
Our Alabama Congressional delegation will all be reelected next month, as usual. We are no different than any other state when it comes to the incumbency advantage of being a congressperson. When someone is elected to the U.S. Congress, they are usually there for life unless they run for higher office. They probably would not be defeated unless they killed someone and that probably would not be enough. It would probably depend on who they killed. The Congress is so divided and acrimonious along party lines that if they killed another member of Congress from a different party it would probably help them and enshrine them in their seat for life. The reelection rate for members of the U.S. Congress is over 93%. That is similar to the Communist Russian Politburo. Our Congress is more akin to the British parliament where they quasi own their seat.
Our delegation will have one new member. Dale Strong will take the Republican seat of Mo Brooks in the 5th District, Huntsville-Tennessee Valley area. He started early and stayed late. He began the campaign as the favorite and remained the frontrunner throughout the two year campaign to capture the open seat. Strong has been a popular chairman of the Madison County Commission. He is a native Huntsvillian and was even educated grade school through college in the Madison County area. He was backed, strongly, by the Huntsville/Madison business community. They realize the importance of having a pragmatic, pro-business, conservative, who will be a GOP team player in Washington. It is imperative for the Redstone Arsenal to have a workhorse in that Seat. They will miss Richard Shelby, who has done all of the heavy lifting for the federal growth. They are glad and fortunate to swap Mo Brooks for Dale Strong. Strong is relatively young and will probably be a long-termer.
Jerry Carl will be reelected to his first district Mobile/Baldwin GOP Seat next month. He has taken to Congress like a duck to water. He also has long-term workhorse written all over him.
Barry Moore will be reelected to his second term as the congressman from the 2nd District, which encompasses the Wiregrass and east Montgomery. It is a very Republican district.
Mike Rogers of Anniston will be reelected to his eleventh term in November. He is gaining seniority and power. If the GOP takes over control of the U.S. House as is expected next month, he is in line to possibly be chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.
Robert Aderholt of the 4th District is the dean of the delegation, thus under the entrenched seniority system he is our most powerful Congressman. Aderholt got to Congress at a very early age. He will be reelected to his 14th two-year term. He serves on the important and prestigious Appropriations Committee.
Gary Palmer will begin his fourth term representing the Jefferson/Hoover/Shelby GOP district. Gary is a policy and issues guy. The GOP leadership recognized this early, and he has advanced as a policy leader in the House.
The lone Democrat in our delegation is Congresswoman Terri Sewell of Birmingham. She will be reelected to her seventh term in the U.S. House in a few weeks. She has emerged as a leader within the Democratic House Caucus. She is very well respected in Washington. She is a native of Selma and holds Ivy League undergraduate and law degrees. Hopefully, for Alabama, she is a long-timer. She has a large, sprawling district that covers most of Birmingham, Montgomery and all of the Black Belt, including her hometown of Selma.
Sewell, being the only African American Democrat in our seven member Congressional district, is the subject of a case pending in the U.S. Supreme Court. Democratic leaders contend that Alabama could and should have two majority minority districts in the state rather than one. The argument is that Sewell’s 7th District contains only 14% of the Black voters in the state. Alabama’s African American population is 27%. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the plaintiffs, then our delegation may go from six Republicans and one Democrat to five Republicans and two Democrats.
The two prominent, powerful, young African American mayors of Birmingham and Montgomery, Randall Woodfin and Steven Reed, would both be eyeing the new Democratic Congressional Seat.
See you next week.
October 12, 2022 - National Trends Do Not Affect Alabama
As mentioned last week, all polling points to a significant Republican pickup of congressional seats in the upcoming November General Election. It is a historical fact that the party that loses the White House in a presidential year, picks up congressional seats in the following midterm elections. Furthermore, Democrats are in disfavor because of runaway inflation. Voters blame Biden and the Democratic Congress for the inflated price of gas, groceries and everything else. Americans vote their pocketbook. It’s the economy that counts, is what they say.
We, however, in Alabama will vote party no matter what is going on in the economy. Over 60% of Alabamians will vote Republican. Although, the libertarian party fielding a slate of state candidates may skew these numbers.
We have six Republican congressional seats, all white men and one Democratic congressional seat held by an African American woman. It would not matter if the inflation rate was 30% and a Republican was in the White House, we would still elect six Republican congressmen and one Democratic congressperson.
We do not fit into national politics. We are automatically placed in the Republican column for presidential elections, regardless of the Democratic or Republican nominees. We are colored red way before the election night numbers are counted. Both of our U.S. Senate seats are held by Republicans. When Katie Britt won the Republican Primary in June, the race was over. This race will be on the ballot next month. However, Katie Britt will win. Winning the Republican Primary in the Heart of Dixie is tantamount to election.
The same was true for the Democratic Party in Alabama six decades ago. Folks, when we change, we change. We do not do things halfway. Sixty years ago, every statewide official was a Democrat. Every state judge was a Democrat. Our entire congressional delegation was Democratic. Today, not only is our congressional delegation 6-to-1 Republican, our legislature, both Senate and House, is 75% Republican. Every statewide elected official in Alabama is a Republican. The Republican control of Alabama politics today is so dominating that we could safely be called a one party state, again, when it comes to statewide politics.
A prevailing theme has continued in Alabama for over a century and it is still pronounced today. Our state is divided politically based on race. Over 84% of whites vote Republican and almost all, 96% of Black voters, vote Democratic. It is that simple, most parts of the country vote based on pocketbook issues, but Alabama and the Deep South vote on race and religion. Therefore, the national congressional numbers in the U.S. House may change to Republican, but we are Republican regardless.
Our legislature will not change our congressional makeup of Alabama’s delegation from 6-to-1 Republican. However, that does not mean that the Federal Courts will not.
African American Democratic lawmakers filed suit in federal court in the Northern District of Alabama late last year asking the court to change the lines to create a second Black majority congressional district. They argued that the current six Republican seats to one Democratic seat majority, which has been in effect since 1992, blatantly violates their Constitutional rights under the 1965 Voting Rights Act. If you put a percentage of the Black citizens, who as we have said vote straight Democratic, into having one African American Democratic Congressman, that gives Black voters 13% of the representation. The Black population of Alabama is 27%. The argument that there should be two majority minority districts has some merit.
A three judge federal panel made up of two Republicans appointed jurists and one Democratic appointee agreed with the plaintiffs and ruled in their favor. They ordered the state legislature to go back to the drawing board and map out a second African American Democratic district.
The Supreme Court intervened on January 24 and stayed the lower court’s decision. However, the stay was granted not on the merits of the case, but because it was too close to Alabama’s election, which had already begun. Supreme Court Justice, Brett Kavanaugh, wrote that the high courts have set precedents that federal courts should not disrupt state election procedures close to the time of an election.
We have not seen the last of this issue. We could see our congressional line-up change to five Republicans and two Democrats in the 2024 election.
We will see.