August 20, 2010
Political polling may not be an exact science. However, a poll today conducted by a professional top notch firm can most times be taken to the bank. The polling on this year’s political races has been right on the money. The pollsters nailed a good many of the primary races right on the head. Primaries are more difficult to predict than general elections because of the uncertainty as to who is going to show up to vote. You can pretty much bet that their readings will render the outcome in November fairly accurately.
Speaking of polling and betting the polling numbers on the gambling issue in Alabama are revealing. It is obvious that over the last twelve years there has been a glaring incremental increase in tolerance toward gambling and a lottery among Alabama’s electorate. An up and down clean vote on a lottery today would pass substantially. People overwhelmingly want to vote on whether the state should tax and regulate electronic bingo. The majority would favor allowing bingo.
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August 13, 2010
Last week we closed with the fact that if Dr. Robert Bentley wins the governorship in November, Tuscaloosa will be the home county of both the Governor and our senior U.S. Senator Richard Shelby. However, there is a glaring contrast between Shelby and Bentley. Bentley may be the worst fundraiser in memory, whereas Shelby is the king of fundraising. He has no peer.
When talk turns to politics in Alabama’s inner political circles eventually tales about Shelby’s prowess and love for raising campaign money are told. Everybody has a Shelby story. Every lobbyist in Washington and every businessman in Alabama will regale a Shelby story. Stories will be told about three politicians for generations to come in Alabama. Big Jim Folsom’s ribald uninhibited antics, George Wallace’s unbelievably miraculous ability to remember names, and Richard Shelby’s unabashed obsession with raising campaign money, will live forever.
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August 06, 2010
One of the amazing stories that emerged from our gubernatorial primaries was the dissolution of the political adage that money talks in politics. Most pundits pegged Bradley Byrne to be the odds on favorite to win the GOP nomination because he had the big business special interest money solidly behind him. During the course of the primary and runoff his campaign raised and spent $6.9 million. In comparison, Dr. Robert Bentley spent $1.8 million. This is an amazing almost 4 to 1 disparity. That, my friends, is unheard of in Alabama or anywhere else.
The second anomaly in the GOP contest was the fact that Bentley won without using negative ads. This is highly unusual in today’s political world. Voters continually lament the caustic and mean spirited virulence displayed in political attack ads. However, the sad truth is that they are used because they work. In this case, they did not.
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July 30, 2010
In 1949 Dr. V.O. Key, Jr. wrote a book entitled, “Southern Politics in State and Nation.” His book is considered the bible of southern political history. It is still the cornerstone textbook of choice for most courses on southern politics taught at universities throughout the country.
When Key writes about Alabama he has a chapter devoted to a unique but clear premise regarding our state’s politics at that time. His theory is called the “friends and neighbors” politics of Alabama. According to Key, “A powerful localism provides an important ingredient of Alabama factionalism. Candidates for governor tend to poll overwhelming majorities in their home counties and to draw heavy support in adjacent counties.”
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July 23, 2010
When the campaign for governor began in earnest a year ago most experts predicted that at this point and time the candidates left standing for the 2010 general election would be Bradley Byrne and Artur Davis. Instead the field is set with the unlikely pairing of Robert Bentley vs. Ron Sparks. The Mississippi casinos would have certainly put better odds on their boy Bob Riley putting their Alabama competition out of business than Robert Bentley and Ron Sparks prevailing as their parties’ standard bearers for the November general election.
Strange things can happen on the way to a coronation. Artur Davis assumed that because he was an African American that all of his fellow African Americans would inherently embrace him and crown him the Democratic nominee. They disobediently rejected the sophisticated Davis and chose instead a white agriculture commissioner from North Alabama who speaks with a distinct rural twang.
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July 16, 2010
This week will determine who the Republican nominee for governor will be as well as for two other secondary statewide offices. However, a good many of this fall’s contenders were selected without runoffs on June 1st.
Our senior U.S. Senator, Richard Shelby, was nominated over nominal opposition. He received 84% of the primary vote and will face similar token opposition in November. He is coasting to a fifth six-year term. He is generally conceded to be Alabama’s most prominent political figure. He is also one of the most powerful senators in Washington.
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July 09, 2010
The marquee match up in next Tuesday’s upcoming runoff races is the Republican gubernatorial contest between Bradley Byrne and Dr. Robert Bentley. The winner will emerge as the favorite to succeed Gov. Bob Riley. It has been a fun and interesting Republican race with lots of twists and turns.
The obvious surprise has been the emergence of Dr. Robert Bentley. If he prevails in the runoff Tuesday he will be tough to beat in the fall. His negatives are so low that it appears hardly anyone dislikes him. His campaign mantra declaring Alabama’s economy is so bad that we need a doctor and his promise not to take a salary as governor until the economy recovers are as good a slogan as I have seen since Albert Brewer’s 1970 declaration that Alabama needs a fulltime governor.
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July 02, 2010
Bradley Byrne’s bold challenging Paul Hubbert’s omnipotence of Goat Hill was like
waving a red flag in front of a raging bull. As we said last week, Hubbert’s fiefdom is to
completely control the Education Budget and policy. That is his sandbox. He does not
mind allowing the governor to play in his sandbox because after all he is the governor.
However, he thinks it somewhat rude and arrogant if you come to play in his sandbox and
kick sand on him.
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June 25, 2010
As the Republican field for governor began to formulate almost two years ago, the players crystallized early in the game. They all figured that the winner of the primary would have a cakewalk to governor because they assumed that an African American congressman named Artur Davis, who had been Barack Obama’s campaign manager in Alabama, would be their Democratic opponent. Therefore, winning the Republican nomination would be tantamount to election.
From the onset the elephant in the field was former Chief Justice Roy Moore. Early polling revealed the book on Moore. He was relegated to being a one issue candidate. He would be the darling of the religious right. These folks constitute about 25% of the Republican primary electorate. Moore’s famous stance as the Ten Commandments Judge endeared him to these folks. Therefore, early reliable polling revealed that Moore was going to get about 25% of the vote. However, it also revealed that he would be hard pressed to get more than that amount. So the book was written on Moore from the beginning. He was going to get 20-25% and no more and would probably not make the runoff with this threshold limitation. He would have very little money and would not attack anybody. Therefore, the other serious players would have to work around Moore’s capture of 20-25% of the vote from the get go.Read more
June 18, 2010
As the 2010 gubernatorial contest began to formulate almost two years ago, the premier face card in the mix was Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom Jr. He was expected to skate through the Democratic primary unscathed and arrive at the general election dance unblemished by negative ads and with his campaign coffers untapped. It was expected that a strong field of Republicans would clash over the GOP nomination. Throughout their family feud they would pummel each other with negative ads and the winner of the primary would emerge in mid July beaten up and broke. This bruised and broke nominee would face the fresh and flush Folsom with only three months to recover and Folsom would waltz to victory.
However, a funny thing happened on the way to the dance. A young African American congressman from Birmingham boldly declared his candidacy for governor. Once it became apparent that Artur Davis would not back down and was dedicated to running, Folsom had to reevaluate his plan to run for governor. It was really an easy decision for Folsom. He probably did not want to run for governor anyway. He prefers the life of lieutenant governor. You can make money in the private sector and enjoy your family life with plenty of hunting and fishing because the lieutenant governor does not do anything anyway. Folsom likes having the best of both worlds. Therefore, he graciously and happily acquiesced to Davis’ kamikaze mission to end his promising congressional career.