October 15, 2010
Without a doubt the Governor’s Race is always the marquee political show every four years. This year is no exception. However, there is another interesting plot developing. Many Goat Hill insiders are more intrigued with this year’s legislative elections. The battle for control of the House and Senate will not only play out this year but will carryover into the January organizational session.
The Republicans believe that they can capture a majority in the Senate and maybe also in the House. Whether they win this year remains to be seen. However most astute observers believe the GOP takeover is inevitable in 2014. The trends are there and once the new census figures are digested it will be hard to avoid the fact that most of the population growth in the State is in the fast growing Republican suburbs.
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October 08, 2010
In 1876 when the southern states wrestled free of the shackles of Reconstruction, one thing was certain. The South would not vote for any Republican. The harsh retribution bestowed on the southerners by the radical Republican Reconstruction dominance and occupation of the former confederate states was so severe that a fierce hatred was ingrained into the southern psyche that would eventually take generations to dissipate.
Alabama and her sister Deep South states became one party Democratic states as a result of Reconstruction. This total Democratic dominance lasted for close to a century. It was 88 years, from 1876 to 1964, before a Republican carried Alabama in a presidential contest. It was 100 years before we had a Republican U.S. senator and 106 years before we elected our first Republican governor in 1986. The last barrier to be broken is the Alabama Legislature. It has now been 136 years since Reconstruction and we have had a Democratic legislature the entire time. Both chambers, the House and Senate, have Democratic majorities as we enter the 2010 fall election.
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October 01, 2010
If Robert Bentley wins the governor’s race in five weeks he will be the first legislator in the course of state history to ascend directly from the legislature to governor. Only a handful of governors have ever served in the House or Senate. It is basically a graveyard or dead end street in Alabama politics.
Let me take you back 100 years and give you the prior experience of our governors to prove that legislative experience is not a stepping stone. Starting in 1906 Braxton Bragg Comer was an industrialist and very successful businessman. His only political experience had been as president of the current day Public Service Commission. Emmet O’Neal was a lawyer and President of the Alabama Bar Association, with no elected office experience.
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September 24, 2010
One would have to wonder what our current governor and legendary governor, Big Jim Folsom, have in common. Riley is quiet and calculating whereas Big Jim was loud, gregarious and somewhat uninhibited. However, both were given humiliating rebukes in their efforts to work with the legislature.
In the 1950’s Big Jim called for a special session to rewrite the Constitution and reapportion the legislature. The legislature met only one day and adjourned. A few years ago Riley called for a special session within the regular session. The current members of the legislature simply ignored him. Another similarity between the two is that neither had ever served in the legislature nor did they know many members personally.
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September 17, 2010
Unlike Britain we do not have royalty who have historically inherited political positions of power. However, you would not think there was much difference in our country and England when you look at the history of our political office holders. It is very much a family business in America. You need only look at the list of our presidents to realize that political offspring benefit immensely from being the sons or daughters of a famous father.
This American tradition began with John Quincy Adams following his father John Adams to the White House. The tradition continued with George W. Bush following his father George H.W. Bush as president. Many expect that Jeb Bush is waiting in the wings to pursue the GOP nomination for president in 2012.
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September 10, 2010
Much like business opportunities the old adage of being at the right place at the right time rings very true in politics. Timing and picking the right race is everything. While picking up the pieces from this year’s races it occurred to me there were several candidates who fit the category of picking the wrong race.
I have often times thought that Judge Roy Moore could have been reelected to the Supreme Court after his ouster over his unbending stance over his Ten Commandments monument. Voters sympathize with Moore and believe he paid too high a tribute for his adamant position. He had some time accumulated in the lucrative state judicial system and another six year term on the Court could have secured a more comfortable retirement for him and his family. Folks just did not see him as a governor, but I believe that he could have been elected this year to the open seat on the high tribunal.
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September 03, 2010
As we approach the Labor Day weekend it reminds me of bygone days in Alabama politics. Labor Day was the biggest campaign day of a gubernatorial election year. There were campaign rallies from one end of the state to the other. Although politics today is not as colorful, Labor Day still officially marks the start of the fall election campaign. We will have an eight week sprint to the finish line on November 2.
The gubernatorial nominees are surprise horses in this year’s quest for the open governor’s chair. Robert Bentley and Ron Sparks were not expected to make it to the dance but here they are ready to go. The glaring uniqueness surrounding this year’s contest is the lack of money. Both candidates are having a difficult time raising campaign dough. It is a stark contrast from eight years ago when both Bob Riley and Don Siegelman each raised and spent over $6 million. It is suggested by some that Bentley and Sparks will be lucky to raise and spend $2 million in the upcoming fall contest.
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August 27, 2010
The new governor, whoever is elected this year, when they enter the Governor’s office in January of 2011 will be walking onto the deck of the Titanic. Never in my lifetime, nor most of yours, have we witnessed the likes of the horrific dilemma the new governor will face when he takes over the reigns of state government. However, this spring as I sat observing the Legislature it became obvious that the Governor will not be alone. The Legislature will be an equal partner in the impending disaster. They also will be facing the tsunami with the new administration.
The chaos and discord in the Senate has rendered them more like a sideshow in a circus than a legislative body. They have been rudderless for the entire quadrennium and will probably remain so for the next four years. The Lt. Governor, who was the leader of the Senate for a century, has been removed from power and the Senators are left to run the asylum. The Lt. Gov. presides but the power of the gavel has been diminished and the job is meaningless.
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August 20, 2010
Political polling may not be an exact science. However, a poll today conducted by a professional top notch firm can most times be taken to the bank. The polling on this year’s political races has been right on the money. The pollsters nailed a good many of the primary races right on the head. Primaries are more difficult to predict than general elections because of the uncertainty as to who is going to show up to vote. You can pretty much bet that their readings will render the outcome in November fairly accurately.
Speaking of polling and betting the polling numbers on the gambling issue in Alabama are revealing. It is obvious that over the last twelve years there has been a glaring incremental increase in tolerance toward gambling and a lottery among Alabama’s electorate. An up and down clean vote on a lottery today would pass substantially. People overwhelmingly want to vote on whether the state should tax and regulate electronic bingo. The majority would favor allowing bingo.
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August 13, 2010
Last week we closed with the fact that if Dr. Robert Bentley wins the governorship in November, Tuscaloosa will be the home county of both the Governor and our senior U.S. Senator Richard Shelby. However, there is a glaring contrast between Shelby and Bentley. Bentley may be the worst fundraiser in memory, whereas Shelby is the king of fundraising. He has no peer.
When talk turns to politics in Alabama’s inner political circles eventually tales about Shelby’s prowess and love for raising campaign money are told. Everybody has a Shelby story. Every lobbyist in Washington and every businessman in Alabama will regale a Shelby story. Stories will be told about three politicians for generations to come in Alabama. Big Jim Folsom’s ribald uninhibited antics, George Wallace’s unbelievably miraculous ability to remember names, and Richard Shelby’s unabashed obsession with raising campaign money, will live forever.
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