May 05, 2010
Last week we examined the probability of Republicans picking up seats in Congress in this year’s midterm elections. These seats were won because of the economy and they may be lost because of the economy. The economy was bad in 2008. It is still bad in 2010. If you live by the sword you die by the sword. If you win because of the economy you will lose because of the economy.
What about our seven member Alabama delegation? For two decades we had 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats. That changed in 2008 when Bobby Bright captured the 2nd District, which had been in Republican hands for 44 years. That made us 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats. However, that only lasted for one year as Freshman Democrat Parker Griffith turned coats and became a Republican after one year in Congress. This was somewhat of a surprise. The more likely switch would have been Bright, who was sitting in a proven Republican seat.
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April 28, 2010
Politics is like a pendulum it swings back and forth. It is much like the economy, which is either up or down. In fact, political fortunes are intertwined with the ups and downs of the economy. Indeed they often run concurrently.
A political novice could take a look at the 2008 Presidential race and easily conclude that Barack Obama was elected president because of the economy. Our country is in the worst economic throes since the Great Depression. It began under George W. Bush’s watch. Therefore, only a Democrat could have won the White House.
Obama adroitly outmaneuvered Hillary Clinton in the obscure caucuses and wrestled the Democratic nomination from her. After garnering the mantle of Democratic nominee, he was destined to beat whoever the Republicans nominated. As the Republican nominee McCain was saddled with the Bush legacy and economy.
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April 21, 2010
Last week I handicapped the Republican gubernatorial primary. This week we will examine the Democratic race for governor. These two party primaries are very different.
First of all you will not see the prolonged six week runoff period in the Democratic primary. With only two candidates vying for the nomination a winner will emerge on June 1. Secondly, this primary contest has not been a benign Sunday school picnic like the GOP primary.
The two combatants, Artur Davis and Ron Sparks, have taken off the gloves. Sparks has ignited and initiated the sparks in this free for all. He has openly insulted and lambasted Davis at every available opportunity and without impunity at every open candidate’s forum. The Republican field has observed these overt barbs being hurled by these two Democrats with dignified amusement.
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April 14, 2010
It may not seem like it but we are heading down the home stretch in the governor’s race. The Republican and Democratic primaries are only six weeks away. On June 1 we will separate the wheat from the chaff in the Republican field of candidates. With four viable candidates on the stage it will be hard for any one candidate to get the over 50% needed to be the nominee. Therefore, the challenge is to make the runoff.
The two frontrunners will face-off six weeks later on July 13 to determine the final GOP nominee for the November 2 General Election. This six-week runoff span is a new twist. Historically we have had a three week runoff contest. However, the time has been expanded this year to accommodate our soldiers stationed overseas and allow them to fully participate in the electoral process. This will make the primary even more expensive for the final two participants in the GOP fray.
April 07, 2010
As many of you are preparing to file your tax returns do not feel too badly because the U.S. Census Bureau has revealed that we Alabamians pay the least amount in taxes of any other state in America. Yes, we in Alabama continue to have the lowest taxes in the nation. The primary stimulus for our low tax rate stems from our having the lowest property tax in America. In fact, we could double our state property tax and still be the lowest in the nation.
The Census Bureau took tax collection figures from all sources to determine the ranking. Taxes tallied by the bureau included personal and corporate income taxes, sales taxes, fuel taxes and property taxes. Alabama’s average state and local tax collection per person was also the lowest among the 50 states for fiscal years 2005 and 2006. In the latest report two of our neighboring states were fast on our track to be #50. Mississippi ranked 49th and Tennessee 48th when it came to paying taxes. Our other two neighbors’ tallies revealed that Georgia ranked 34th and Florida was in the middle of the pack in 26th place.
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March 31, 2010
In 1986 I was a young 34 year old politician. I was running unopposed for my second four-year term in the state legislature from my hometown of Troy. My best lifetime friend Keith Watkins was also 34 and was a young practicing attorney in Troy. We had been close friends since childhood. Richard Shelby did not know of our closeness but ironically Keith and I were the only two people that Shelby knew in Pike County. He asked us to meet him for breakfast and then asked us to be his county campaign managers for his race for the U.S. Senate against Jeremiah Denton.
Denton had been elected as the first Republican senator from Alabama since Reconstruction six years earlier. He had ridden Ronald Reagan’s coattails to victory but then proceeded to spend the next six years writing a book on how to get beat for a U.S. Senate seat. Denton was a great soldier and patriot but a horrible politician and senator. He was vulnerable to say the least. So Shelby’s decision to roll the dice and run against Denton was not as much of a gamble as it appeared.
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March 24, 2010
No other ethnic group in American history has immersed themselves into American politics any more than the Irish. The Irish politician that best exemplifies this devotion to politics was the famous Boston pol Tip O’Neill.
O’Neill was one of the most colorful politicians of the 20th Century. His extraordinary career spanned 50 years, including a decade as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. There is a great book entitled “Man of the House,” penned by William Novak, that chronicles O’Neill’s life and career.
The last true bipartisan friendship seen in Washington was the union of House Speaker Tip O’Neill, a devout liberal Democrat, and Ronald Reagan, the quintessential conservative Republican president. These two men of diverse political thought genuinely liked each other. They were both proud of their Scotch Irish ancestry and met frequently over libations like good Irishmen.
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March 17, 2010
It is very fitting that we Alabamians celebrate St. Patrick’s Day this week because a good many of us can trace our ancestry back to Ireland. The majority of Alabama’s early settlers were of Scotch Irish descent and a good many of us are still here today.
My maternal ancestors settled in southeast Alabama in the 1840’s. Their roots are easily traced back to Ireland. I had heard this from aging relatives that they came to Alabama from the Carolinas and indeed their birth and genealogy tables bear this out. They simply said the Carolinas because I believe that at the time of their migration there was no distinction between North and South Carolina. Although I believe most of our ancestors came from what is now North Carolina.
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March 10, 2010
I host a 30-minute television show entitled, “Alabama Politics,” which airs on public television. Most of the gubernatorial candidates have graciously appeared on the show. Invariably I have asked all of them the same question, “Why in the world would you want to be governor?”
The economy has cast an ominous financial cloud over our state government. Gov. Riley has declared historic levels of proration. The entire rainy day savings account is gone. We are surviving on onetime federal stimulus money, which runs out in 2010. The legislature is currently working to craft a budget, which takes effect in October. It will be a nightmare next year. When the new governor walks into the office in January of 2011 it will be like walking onto the deck of the Titanic. It will be a daunting task for the next governor. They may very well be a one-termer.
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March 03, 2010
With all the furor created by our outgoing governor over electronic bingo, the fact that we have a governor’s race has flown completely under the media’s radar screen. However, this is a premier governor’s race because it is the first gubernatorial contest without an incumbent governor on the ballot in over two decades. The contest has now been ongoing for close to a year.
As early as seven months ago I foolhardily predicted the winners and losers in the 2010 Governor’s Race. With just three months until the June 1st primary, I stand by my prognostications. If you recall, in early August of 2009 I told you that Bradley Byrne and Tim James would be the top contenders in the Republican primary and that they would eventually be pitted in a GOP runoff to face Democrat Artur Davis in November. I stand solidly behind that scenario. My prediction at that time was based on intuition. Today’s confirmation prognosis is based on fact.
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