February 26, 2020 - Primaries Next Week
Folks, our primaries are next week! On the Democratic side, the Presidential Preference Primary will be the big show and will be interesting to watch. On the right, the Republican Primary for the U.S. Senate Seat will be the marquee event.
In addition to the Senate Race, you have two open Republican Congressional Seats in the First and Second Districts. You also have some important statewide Supreme Court and Appellate Court races on the ballot.
Incumbent Supreme Court Justice Greg Shaw and Shelby County State Senator Cam Ward, are both running to be the Republican nominee for the Associate Justice of the Supreme Court, place number one.
Shaw is one of the most introverted, dignified people that ever ran for statewide office. He takes his role as a monk-like nontalking judge to heart. He has not and will not campaign. He thinks it is beneath the jurist to talk to people, much less campaign or shake hands.
On the other hand, Senator Cam Ward is the ultimate people person and campaigner. Ward has worked the state from one end to the other, campaigning in every nook and cranny and county. He has outworked Shaw 20 to 1. However, ultimately in today’s statewide politics, it all boils down to money.
Ninety-five percent of the people who vote next Tuesday will not decide or think about who they are going to vote for until next week. Then after they vote and elect one of them, they will not be able to tell you who they voted for or for that matter who is on the Supreme Court. This one will be interesting and probably close. Whoever gets the most votes Tuesday will be sworn in for a six-year term in January. Winning the GOP nomination for a judgeship in Alabama is tantamount to election in the Heart of Dixie.
Two Jefferson/Shelby metro candidates are vying for a seat on the Court of Civil Appeals. State Representative Matt Fridy and Phillip Bahakel are vying for place number 2 on the Civil Appeals Court.
The presiding Judge of the Court of Criminal Appeals, Mary Windom, should waltz to re-election. However, Criminal Appeals Judge Beth Kellum, who has done an excellent job, could have a tougher race with two opponents.
PSC President Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh has an also-ran liberal candidate in her race.
The winners of the March 3 GOP Primary or runoff on March 31 will win the 1st and 2nd congressional districts and go to Washington for 2 years.
The fist district Mobile/Baldwin race is the best and most up in the air. It is a three man race between former State Senator Bill Hightower, Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl, and Mobile State Representative Chris Pringle. It will be interesting to see which two make the March 31 runoff.
Dothan businessman Jeff Coleman is the front runner to win the open 2nd Congressional district seat. The question is can he win without a runoff. It may be difficult with seven people in the race. He will ultimately win.
As earlier stated the GOP contest for the U.S. Senate is the marquee event on the scene next week. Jeff Sessions is the favorite to win back his seat. However, it will not be a cakewalk. It is doubtful he can win without a runoff. It is a spirited and close race between Coach Tommy Tuberville and Congressman Bradley Byrne to get into the runoff with Sessions. Former Chief Justice Roy Moore has done very little campaigning and will probably get less than 10% of the vote.
All indications point to former Vice President Joe Biden winning our Democratic Presidential Primary. Over 75% of the votes cast in our Alabama Democratic Primary will be by African American voters, and Biden has received overwhelming endorsements from almost all of the African American hierarchy and leadership groups in the State. In addition, the two leading African American Democratic Leaders, Congresswoman Terri Sewell and Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin, have endorsed Biden.
However, Joe Reed’s powerful Alabama Democratic Conference has endorsed former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg. It will be interesting to see how Bloomberg fares in Alabama next Tuesday. He has spent a lot of money.
You will see an initiative on the ballot that will ask you if you want to make the State School Board appointed rather than elected. Gov. Kay Ivey is promoting a “yes” vote. She believes an appointed Board is better for education. She would appoint the State School Board, if approved.
Y’all don’t forget to vote.
February 19, 2020 - Open Seat for the 2nd Congressional District will be decided in March
Over the course of history, the second congressional district has been referred to and considered a Montgomery congressional district because the Capital City has comprised the bulk of the population. In recent years a good many Montgomerians have migrated to the suburban counties of Autauga and Elmore. Therefore, the district has been refigured to reflect this trend. Today there are more Republican votes cast in this congressional district in these two counties than from Montgomery.
Nevertheless the bulk of the population is in what is now referred to as the River Region. This Montgomery region is coupled with Southeast Alabama and the Wiregrass, which makes it a very conservative Congressional district. It is a Republican seat and has been since Bill Dickinson won it in the southern Republican Goldwater landslide of 1964.
Bill Dickinson beat longtime sitting Congressman George Grant in 1964, and became the first Republican to be elected since Reconstruction. Congressman Dickinson stayed in the seat for 28 years. He rose to be the ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee. Through his influence, not only were the vital military bases – Maxwell/Gunter in Montgomery and Ft. Rucker in the Wiregrass – enhanced, he was also instrumental in bringing Lockheed and Sikorsky plants to the district. Over the past 100 years, Dickinson has had the most profound effect for the district.
Businessman Terry Everett won the seat in 1992 upon Dickinson’s retirement. He was the first and only Wiregrass person to hold that seat. Everett served with distinction for 16 years, through 2008. He was a stalwart Republican and very conservative.
The current Congressional person is Martha Roby, a Republican from Montgomery. After 10 years in Congress, she said she had enough and chose to not run for reelection this year which leaves the open seat up for grabs. It is a Republican seat, therefore, the winner of the March 3rd primary and probable March 31 GOP runoff, will go to Washington for at least two years.
The probable winner of that congressional seat will be Dothan businessman, Jeff Coleman. He is 53 and has not only been successful running his family’s worldwide moving business, he has been active civically in the Wiregrass. He is at the right time in life to serve in Washington. His profile is the prototypical scenario for being elected to a Republican Congressional or Senate seat. Congressional campaign fundraising limits coupled with the fact that Washington PACs do not get involved in primaries but wait until the General Election to place their bets, favors a wealthy candidate.
Coleman has his own money and dedicated $2 million to the race. He has followed through on his promise to spend that amount. Amazingly, he has raised another $1 million. When all is said and done, he will probably have spent close to $3 million to win this seat in Congress. Just outspending his challengers by a 10 to 1 amount would be sufficient to win. However, he has not only spent more than all the others combined, he has outworked them. He is affable and confident in an unassuming way. People seem to like him. He will win.
If Coleman had not entered the race, former Attorney General Troy King would have been favored to win. Having run several times and being a native of the Wiregrass, King had some inherent name identification. He has been hampered in this race by lack of fundraising. However, if there is a runoff, King will more than likely be Coleman’s opponent in the March 31 GOP runoff.
Former Enterprise State Representative Barry Moore ran a gallant race against Martha Roby a couple of years ago and got a good vote, most of which came out of Coffee County. He may not do as well in the Wiregrass this time.
There is a dashing young candidate named Jessica Taylor, who is running a good campaign focused on getting free publicity on Fox News as a youthful female candidate.
Whichever candidate wins the seat, there is no question as to which congressional committees they should aspire – Agriculture and Armed Services because this district is highly dependent on military spending and farming.
Sadly, the winner will probably not have a long tenure in Congress. Alabama is probably going to lose a Congressional seat after this year’s census count. The logical seat to be altered and probably merged with the current third and first district is the second district.
Folks, the primary election is less than two weeks away.
See you next week.
February 12, 2020 - Legislative Session Begins – Priority Will Be Resolving Prison Problems
The 2020 Legislative Session, which began last week, will be the second session of Governor Kay Ivey’s administration. For the second straight year, she and the legislature will be facing a major obstacle.
The prison problem is the paramount issue for the year. The state must address and resolve this dilemma or the federal authorities will take over our prisons.
The U.S. Justice Department has decreed that the constitutional rights of inmates are being violated because they are in overcrowded conditions which can lead to extreme violence. The federal justice officials say overcrowding and excess violence is caused by a shortage of staff and beds for inmates.
Our men’s prisons are at 170 percent of the system’s capacity. In the past few weeks it has gone from bad to worse with a forced transfer of more than 600 inmates from Holman Prison. Our Holman correctional facility is generally where our most hardened criminals are housed.
Gov. Ivey and this legislature did not cause this problem. It has been building up and festering for years. The chickens have just come home to roost under her watch but she is attempting to handle the problem adroitly.
The Governor and her administration have worked openly and pragmatically with the Justice Department in clearly defined negotiations. It might be added that the Justice Department has worked congruently and candidly with the Ivey administration and given them clear guidelines in order to avoid federal intervention.
Gov. Ivey and the Justice Department are taking a harmonious approach, which is a far cry from the Gov. George Wallace versus Judge Frank Johnson demagogic rhubarb of past years. In that case, the state lost and we lost in a big way. When the federal courts take over a state’s prison system, they dictate and enforce their edicts and simply give the state the bill. It is a pretty large, unpredictable price tag. The feds always win.
Gov. Ivey will take information from a study group she appointed, led by former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Champ Lyons as well as negotiate with the Justice Department and offer proposals they need from the legislature along with administrative decisions to remedy the prison problem.
Leading the legislative efforts will be State Senator Cam Ward who has been the lead dog in the prison reform efforts. The problem hopefully will be resolved during this session.
Gov. Ivey will not use the approach she did last year with rebuild Alabama when she adjourned the Regular Session and placed the legislature in Special Session to address the issue on a solo stand-alone platform. It will be tackled within the confines of the Regular Session. If the solution is to build three new, modern men’s prisons the state will be faced with some heavy lifting because the big question becomes, how do we pay for them?
The answer may be in a lottery. For the umpteenth year, a proposal to let Alabamians vote to keep the money from lottery tickets in our state coffers. We are one of only four states in America who derive no money from lottery proceeds. We are surrounded on all four sides of our state by sister southern states that reap the benefits of our citizens’ purchase of lottery tickets. This could be the year that the legislature votes to allow their constituents the right to vote yes or no to keep our own money.
You can bet your bottom dollar that if it gets on the ballot, it will pass. Alabamians, both Democratic and Republican, will vote for passage. Even if they do not have any interest in purchasing a lottery ticket. They are tired of seeing their money go to Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi or Florida. Those that like to buy them are tired of driving to our neighboring states to give them money for their school children and roads.
It also may have a better chance of getting to the voters this year because the sponsor, Rep. Steve Clouse (R-Ozark) is a respected veteran and Chairman of the House Ways and Means General Fund Committee. His proposal is also a very simple paper lottery.
However, for the first time Gov. Ivey addressed the issue in her State of the State Address. She is calling for a study commission on the subject which could further delay our having a lottery.
See you next week.
February 5, 2020 - Legislative Session Begins This Week. Legislator Abolishes His Own County
The 2020 Legislative Session begins this week. It will be an interesting three and a-half months. There are a myriad of important issues that legislators have to address this year, as always. However, standing in the way of substantive state issues each year is the necessity to address local bills.
Our 1901 Constitution is archaic in many aspects. One of which is that those men who drafted the act were reluctant to give home rule to local counties for various reasons. Therefore, county governments and county commissions must come with hat in hand to their legislator to even take care of mundane matters.
Many of you have asked with dismay, after journeying to the legislature for a view of the House and Senate in action, what is happening? They are astounded and oftentimes outraged at the scene on the floor. It appears that one legislator is at the microphone and nobody is paying attention to him. The other 100 legislators are milling around visiting with each other laughing, eating, talking on cell phones, doing everything under the sun but paying attention to the pertinent issue being introduced. In the other chamber they may see or hear a clerk reading a bill aloud and no senator is even present on the floor. This display of disorganization, disarray and lack of decorum is difficult to explain to school children who come to the Capitol for the day.
The reason is that the issue up front for debate and passage is whether Fayette County can buy a tractor or Walker County wants to change the number of seats on a local water board. The bill does not affect but one county and the local legislative delegation is the only one that needs to vote on it.
This brings me to a pertinent point – the Legislature is not a good steppingstone to higher elective office. First, legislators get no statewide name identification. Second, legislators have a very extensive record of casting hundreds of votes. These votes can be scrutinized and distorted.
If a legislator takes the position that they choose to abstain from voting on the other counties’ local bills, then they are recorded as not voting on over 100 votes in a Session. An opponent can run an ad accusing them of going to Montgomery and not even showing up to vote. On the other hand, a good number of these local bills are not as benign as just buying a tractor. A county commission may be asking for local legislation to raise the local fuel tax to buy a fleet of tractors. Therefore, if you vote a complimentary yes as a courtesy to your legislative colleague, you are recorded as voting for millions of dollars in taxes. Then you have to run on that record.
There has been a lot of trickery over the years with local legislation. Therefore, legislators need to be aware of what may be hidden in these innocuous local acts their fellow legislators ask then to vote for. A legendary, masterful act of deceit played on a legislator by a fellow legislator still reverberates almost 60 years later. It occurred during the second Big Jim Folsom administration during the late 1950s. Legislators Emmett Oden of Franklin County and Jack Huddleston of Colbert County despised each other. These two counties adjoin each other in Northwest Alabama. These two men were constantly at odds.
Oden introduced a local bill for Franklin County that repealed another local bill passed in December of 1869. His brief explanation to the House of Representatives when the measure came up for a vote was that it was simply a housekeeping bill, “It corrects an error when the original bill was passed.”
Through the custom of local courtesy, the local bill passed unanimously. Even Representative Jack Huddleston voted for the bill. After passage of the measure, Representative Oden told the press what his local bill actually did.
The 1869 law, which he was repealing, was the law that had created Colbert County out of Franklin County. Representative Huddleston had just voted to abolish his own county. That one vote ended Huddleston’s political career. His constituents in Colbert County could not forgive that he had voted to abolish his own county.
See you next week.
January 29, 2020 - 1st District Seat Open. Great Three-Man Race to Replace Bryne. Senate Race in Full Gear.
The first district Congressional race is probably the best race in the state in this year’s March 3rd Primary. The winner of the March 31st GOP Primary runoff will go to Congress. The famous first district is a Republican congressional seat and has been since Jack Edwards won the seat in the Southern Goldwater landslide in 1964.
The bulk of the district population is in the two county gulf coast counties of Baldwin and Mobile. It being the only gulf coast district in the state, they do have some local issues like red snapper fishing, and their infamous Bay 10 bridge and Bayway project. However, for the most part the candidates are focusing on national issues like international affairs, gun control, health care, the environment, immigration and abortion. As is apropos for Republican Congressional candidates, there are all trying to tie themselves to Donald Trump.
There are three clear frontrunners, Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl, State Representative Chris Pringle and former State Senator Bill Hightower, all from Mobile. Commissioner Carl has been a Mobile County Commissioner since 2012. Pringle is a state legislator from Mobile. Bill Hightower served one term in the Alabama State Senate, then made an unsuccessful bid for governor in 2018. The three seem to be knotted in a close three-man race. It will be interesting to see which of the three make the two-man March 31st primary.
The seat is open because Bradley Bryne is running for the U.S. Senate. Byrne had to choose to either continue in his seat or go for the brass ring. Bryne is a very viable candidate in the Senate race. However former Senator Jeff Sessions is favored to lead the March 3rd Primary and runoff, and then take back his U.S. Senate seat in the November General Election.
Sessions will settle in for a six-year term. Probably his final. He is 73 years old and will be 74 when he takes office next January. Therefore he will be a 74-year-old freshman senator. That is not the optimum age to become a U.S. Senator again.
Seniority is everything in Washington. Seniority still prevails dominantly. It is absolutely king. Sessions does not portray the national image and stature that our Senior Senator Richard Shelby enjoys, much less the power, prestige and ability to bring home the bacon to the Heart of Dixie. Indeed, during their 20 years of service together as our tandem in the Senate, Shelby has overshadowed Sessions not only in seniority but in power and accomplishments.
Actually, Sessions does not mind playing second fiddle to Shelby. He prefers it. During his 20-years in the Senate, he enjoyed playing the role of being the ultimate conservative ideologue. He was and will once again become one of the most conservative members of the Senate and will spend his time on social issues like immigration, abortion or other rightwing noneconomic issues. Sessions will be the darling of Fox News and will ask for his seat back on the Judiciary Committee, which does absolutely nothing for Alabama. Sessions does not really want to be effective. He is the ultimate ideologue.
Even though Sessions will be 74 in January of 2021, his chief rivals for the GOP nomination, Tommy Tuberville and Bradley Byrne will be 66 and 65, respectively – not exactly spring chickens. Those are not the perfect ages to enter the U.S. Senate. By the same token, if by some remarkable miracle upset Doug Jones wins this year’s race, he would not be the perfect effective Senator for Alabama as a 65-year-old Democrat.
Thank goodness for the Heart of Dixie we have Richard Shelby as our Senior U.S. Senator. When you have the Chairman of the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee, you really do not need a second Senator. Seniority is everything in Washington.
See you next week.
January 22, 2020 - First District has had Outstanding Congressmen
Current First District Congressman Bradley Byrne is leaving his safe congressional seat to take a shot at the U.S. Senate this year.
The Mobile First Congressional District has had quite a legacy over the last century. Alabama’s First District has always been primarily made up of Mobile County. Historically, the rural southwest Alabama counties north of Mobile have been a part of the First. Washington, Clarke, Monroe and Escambia do not amount to much of the population. Baldwin and Mobile, which are now essentially one county, have been tied together for the past few decades, and they comprise most of the district.
In July of 1935, the legendary and colorful Frank Boykin became the congressman. He stayed in the First seat for 28 years. Ole Frank Boykin was a colorful, earthy fellow. He had little formal education but had made a lot of money in the lumber and turpentine business prior to going to Congress in 1936, and was reelected twelve times.
Boykin owned a hunting lodge in rural Washington County. He had a legendary hunting weekend retreat. Invitations to the retreat were coveted among members of Congress. The Speaker of the House would come every year, along with most of the leadership.
One of the best pictures I have ever seen was taken with Frank Boykin, who was about 5 feet 2 inches beside Governor “Big” Jim Folsom who was about 6 feet 9 inches. It was at the Boykin lodge. Both were obviously inebriated, especially “Big” Jim.” Boykin was famous for his favorite phrase, “Everything is made for love.”
John Tyson, Sr. served briefly after Frank Boykin lost out in a special state wide last man out election. Tyson’s successor was one of Alabama’s great congressmen, Jack Edwards. Mr. Edwards was more dignified than Mr. Boykin. However, they both served the First District well.
Jack Edwards was born in Birmingham. He was student body president at the University of Alabama and got his law degree from Alabama. He began his law practice in Mobile. Shortly thereafter, at age 36, he was elected to Congress in 1964. During his 28-year tenure in the House, with the addition of Baldwin County, the First District became one of the most Republican districts in the South. Edwards was reelected nine times. He chose to leave after 20 years.
Sonny Callahan succeeded Jack Edwards and stayed in the First District seat 18 years. Like Edwards he was helped in his first election by the top of the presidential ticket. Popular President, Ronald Reagan, carried Alabama overwhelmingly and had strong coattails. Callahan was also buoyed by Edwards’ endorsement and the addition of Baldwin County to the First.
Callahan was born in Mobile to a large Irish-Catholic family. He attended Mobile public schools. Although, like Boykin, he never graduated college and was successful in business. Along with being a popular state senator, he owned a trucking and warehouse business. He was serving in the state senate when he went to Congress in 1985.
Jack Edwards and Sonny Callahan were known for excellent constituent relations. Therefore, it was apropos for the man responsible for their constituent service to follow them into the First District seat.
Jo Bonner won the seat in 2002. He had been Callahan’s Chief of Staff. Callahan and Edwards endorsed Bonner in his initial primary. He was reelected, overwhelmingly, five times. After 10 years in Congress, he opted to leave Washington. Congressman Bonner is now Governor Kay Ivey’s Chief of Staff.
Jo Bonner was born to be the congressman from the First District. He was born into a family steeped in Wilcox County political and public service. His father was probate judge. He grew up as the “little brother,” actually and figuratively to fellow Wilcox Countians Judy Bronner, Kay Ivey, and Jeff Sessions.
Bonner was highly respected by his House colleagues. He was on a leadership track and was Chairman of the House Ethics Committee. Jo Bonner is a class act and the epitome of a true southern gentleman.
Bradley Bryne took up the mantle of the prestigious First District four years ago. He took to Congress like a duck to water and has done a good job.
See you next week.
January 15, 2020 - Methodists have Dominated High Offices in Alabama History
Even though there are more Baptists than Methodists in Alabama, historically Methodists have held more of the prominent political posts in the Heart of Dixie. If you look closely at these leaders’ lives, a good many of our leaders have been sons of Methodist ministers.
The most famous Methodist minister in the state over the past 50 years has been the Rev. John Ed Mathison of Montgomery. He has been the confidant and counselor to a great many of Alabama’s leaders, as well as being the greatest inspirational and dynamic speaker of our time. John Ed founded and pastored the Frazer United Methodist church in Montgomery. He shepherded his flock in the Capitol City for 36 years.
His younger brother is a remarkable man, very similar to John Ed. The Rev. George Mathison served numerous churches in Alabama. However, he is best known for being the minister of the First Methodist Church of Auburn, where he was their beloved pastor for 26 years. His flock referred to him as Brother George.
John Ed and George were born to be Methodist ministers. Their father was a renowned Methodist minister. They were both athletes in college. John Ed and George are both outstanding tennis players.
The First Methodist Church of Dothan is where many of the leaders of the Wiregrass have attended over the years. Dr. Mike Watson has been a leader in the Methodist Church throughout his illustrious career. He recently retired as a Bishop of the Methodist Church. He and his wife, Margaret, grew up in the First Methodist Church of Dothan. Two Alabama Attorney Generals, Bill Baxley and Richmond Flowers, came from First Methodist in Dothan. Congressional candidate and businessman, Jeff Coleman, is also an active member of this church.
Our legendary United States Senator and Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice, Howell Heflin, was the son of a Methodist minister. Heflin was a master storyteller and having grown up in the Methodist Church was an active layman in the church. He loved to eat. He would say, “The sacred bird of the Methodist was fried chicken.” The Methodist practice of moving their preachers around caused Heflin to be born out of Alabama. Heflin would say, “My father was over in Georgia doing missionary work among the heathen.”
Alabama’s most prominent and prolific political icon, George Wallace, was a Methodist. Our Legendary United States Senators Lister Hill and John Sparkman were both Methodists.
State Rep. Steve Clouse has been a member of First Methodist in Ozark his entire life. State Rep. Bill Poole and Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox, are members of the First Methodist Church of Tuscaloosa. Huntsville mayor, Tommy Battle, is a Methodist and his grandfather was a Methodist minister.
Senator Jeff Sessions is a lifelong, devout Methodist. He even went to the Montgomery Methodist founded college, Huntington. BCA President Katie Britt and her husband Wesley attend the First Methodist Church of Montgomery. Current Chief Justice Tom Parker and his wife Dottie, attend Frazer United Methodist of Montgomery, the Church made famous by John Ed Mathison.
Congressman Robert Aderholt and his wife, Caroline, met at the Methodist college of Birmingham Southern College and were married in the Methodist church, but are now Anglicans.
The Baptists have been taking their rightful place at the head of the table in recent years. Our Governor Kay Ivey is a Baptist. She attends First Baptist Church of Montgomery. The legendary pastor there, Jay Wolfe, has been the confidant and pastor to a good many of our recent state leaders. PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh and her husband, Jeff, are also active members of First Baptist Church of Montgomery. Twinkle teaches Sunday School and Jeff is a deacon.
Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth is a Baptist and has been a youth leader in his church. Secretary of State John Merrill is an active member of Calvary Baptist Church of Tuscaloosa. State Senator Greg Reed of Jasper is a Baptist. Greg has been a lifelong member of First Baptist Jasper. Alabama Farmers Federation President Jimmy Parnell is a deacon of his church, Hillcrest Baptist of Maplesville, where his family has attended for generations.
We have a couple of state leaders who are Presbyterians. The two most prominent are our Senior United States Senator, Richard Shelby and state Treasurer John McMillan.
We have two token Episcopalians, Mobile/Baldwin Congressman, Bradley Bryne and the Congressman who preceded him, Jo Bonner, who is currently Governor Ivey’s Chief of Staff
In bygone days if you wanted to be elected to anything in North Alabama, you had to be a member of the Church of Christ. Not so much today. The only member of that church today, who is a prominent state political leader, is State Senator Jabo Waggoner, Jr. who represents an over the mountain, Birmingham silk-stocking district.
See you next week.
January 8, 2020 - What Does the Presidential Race Look like Nationally?
Our presidential primary in the Heart of Dixie is less than two months away. We vote on March 3, 2020. President Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee. It is a foregone conclusion that Trump will carry Alabama in the November General Election.
One of the most intriguing revelations will be which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Democratic Primary in Alabama in March. Longtime Democratic kingpin, Joe Reed, who heads the Alabama Democratic Conference will have a lot to say about the outcome. It will be interesting to see how former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s late entry into the Democratic race for President fares.
Bloomberg is one of the wealthiest men in the world. He is much wealthier than Donald Trump. Inexplicably, Bloomberg chose Alabama as one of the first states that he will run in. It will be interesting to watch what he does in Alabama. This wrinkle will bring national attention to our March 3 Democratic Primary.
President Trump will not only win the GOP Primary in our state on March 3, he will carry Alabama overwhelmingly in the November General Election. Trump carried Alabama with a 63 percent plurality in 2016. He will more than likely match or exceed those numbers again this year. It may make us one of the most pro-Trump Red Republican states in America.
The Republican presidential nominee, Trump, will not only carry Alabama but also the Deep South and the Heartland states of middle America. However, the Democratic nominee for President will win the East and West coasts of our country.
The hay is in the barn in about 40 states because of our Electoral College System where the winner of the state, even if only by one vote, gets all of the electoral votes of that state. Currently, the Electoral College System favors those of us in smaller Red states. Trump would not have been elected President, otherwise. He did not get the most votes cast. Even with the slight Electoral College advantage, the GOP conservative nominee has an uphill climb to beat Democratic liberal nominee.
Folks, we have 9 electoral votes. California has 55 electoral votes. Having said that, even though Trump will be favored to win Alabama in the Fall election, he enters the national contest a clear underdog. The presidential race will be decided in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. President Trump has to carry all five of these states to win reelection.
Current polling shows that President Trump is behind in all five of these pivotal swing states. However, let me remind you again that it is not what the entire electorate feels or how they would vote that counts. What counts is who shows up to vote on Election Day on November 3. Trump’s campaign will focus on firing up and enthusing his base to get out to vote. That was how he won in 2016, and that is his path to victory in 2020. It is those who vote that counts.
Trump could very well win this year’s election. He is raising more money than all the Democratic candidates. Under the Electoral College system, this geographic advantage is so strong that he could lose the popular vote by five million and still win.
History is also on Trump’s side. Since World War II, presidents have won a second term unless there was a major economic recession, which is always a crucial ingredient in any presidential race. Trump has been the steward of tremendous economic growth over his tenure. Indeed, polls indicate that the economy is his ace in the hole. He has overwhelmingly favorable numbers on the handling of the economy. Trump performs poorly on other policy issues as well as honesty, integrity and steadiness.
Again, it is all about turnout. Trump is hanging his hat on a “base strategy” aimed at pleasing his most ardent and passionate followers. The question becomes, will they hang with him if the economy falters? They will in Alabama, but will they in Michigan?
Sixty-years ago in the epic 1960 Presidential Race between Republican Richard Nixon and Democrat John Kennedy there were 40 states in play and 10 predetermined. Today, the numbers are reversed. There are only 10 swing states that determine the outcome of the Presidential election.
Another significant change is the age of the presidential candidates. President Trump is 73, Joe Biden is 78, and Bernie Sanders is 79. If Michael Bloomberg makes a move, he is 77. When John F. Kennedy was sworn in he was only 43 years old.
See you next week.
January 1, 2020 - New Year Begins. It’s a Presidential Year
As the new year begins, so does a Presidential election year.
For several decades, in fact for most of the twentieth century, Alabamians were more interested in state and local politics than presidential politics. In fact, from 1901 through the 1950’s there were more people voting in a Democratic Primary for Governor than in a presidential General Election.
The interest in national politics is a fairly new occurrence for Alabamians, and it seems to have been in correlation to the party change in the state. Donald Trump carried Alabama by over 63 percent in 2016. You can pretty much bet the family farm that he will do the same to whomever the national Democrats offer up in the coming year.
The country is divided like never before in our history. You either live in a red Republican state or a blue Democratic state like California. You might say, “the hay is in the barn,” in all but about 10 battleground swing states. There are 40 states that it really does not matter who the Republican or Democratic nominee is, that party’s candidate is going to win that state and get all of that states electoral votes.
As I always say, if Mickey Mouse was the Republican nominee for President, he would carry Alabama and by the same token, if Donald Duck was the Democratic nominee, he would carry California.
The election is won or lost in the swing states of Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The candidates will not even campaign in these safe 40 states. We will not see the presidential candidates, but neither will California or New York. Although, the Democratic candidates will go to California and New York to raise money. In fact, that is where our anomaly, short-lived Democratic Senator Doug Jones is getting his campaign money. He raises his funds in the most liberal zip codes in America, especially the left coast of California.
Our national politics, especially Congress, has become nothing more than an extreme partisan show. The theater is acted out in childlike petty gamesmanship. The Democratic charade of the impeachment inquiry is a perfect example. They are having a childlike food fight.
Swing voters are really turned off by this partisan circus. It is an obvious political vendetta. The votes are exactly along party lines. That in itself tells independent voters that it is a tribal squabble that is obsessing the tribally aligned politicians instead of important economic issues that affect them and their families.
The Democratic CNN/MSNBC/Stephen Colbert watchers gleefully boast of a coup that will never occur. An impeachment vote by only Democrats in the House of Representatives will never be approved or given any credence in the United States Senate, which has a Republican majority. It would need a 2/3 vote in the House of Lords and the U.S. Senate has a Republican majority. It appears that all measures, movements, and votes in Washington are cast along party lines.
All of the Republicans watch Fox news and consider the whole theater as an illegitimate political sham. My guess is that the fair minded, independent voter sees this show as a political act to appease their partisan zealots and they are making a mockery of a time-honored institution.
The Democrats will be the losers in this scenario. Voters reacted unfavorably to Republicans when they impeached Bill Clinton. Although they seemed to pay more attention and enjoyed that show more because the proposed misdeed was a lot more salacious.
As we begin the New Year, let’s not forget that we have some governing to do in the Heart of Dixie and not just politicking. The 2020 Legislative Session begins on February 4. The paramount issue to be addressed is our prison overcrowding problem and prison reform. Gov. Kay Ivey will come forward and offer to the Legislature a comprehensive plan to address this dilemma which has been building up for over a decade.
The Governor deserves a tip of the hat for working with the Justice Department on this issue. In turn the Justice Department and our U.S. Attorneys deserve accolades for their due diligence in working harmoniously with the Governor’s office and guiding them in the directions necessary to avoid federal interference.
This discourse and harmony is quite a contrast to the political rhubarb and catastrophe illustrated and orchestrated by the George Wallace vs Frank Johnson scenario of the 1970’s.
See you next week.
December 25, 2019
As is my tradition, as the old year comes to a close, I like to pay homage to legendary Alabama leaders who have passed away. We lost some legends in 2019.
Although he was a nonpolitical leader, Bart Starr passed away this year at 85. Starr was best known for being the quarterback of the great Green Bay Packers teams that won the NFL Championship perennially. Starr was the leader of Coach Vince Lombardo’s dynasty teams.
Starr died during Memorial Day weekend in Birmingham. He left an indelible legacy that was vast and greater than just being a pro-quarterback. Starr was a Packer and Alabama Football legend. However, Starr’s grace, humility and love for his wife Cherry is what made him a great man. Starr grew up in Montgomery. He was a successful businessman after his NFL career.
Legendary State Representative Pete Turnham of Auburn died in his beloved city in September. He was three months away from being 100. He served 40 years in the Alabama House of Representatives and during that tenure he made sure that Auburn University was taken care of in the state budget. Mr. Pete was one of my best friends. We sat together in the House for 16 years.
A lion and giant of the Alabama House of Representatives, Rick Manley, passed away in January at 86. Rick served the people of Demopolis and West Alabama in the Legislature more than 25 years. He was one of the most astute parliamentarians to ever serve in the legislature. Rick Manley served as chairman of both the House and Senate Judiciary Committees. He was also an outstanding attorney and served in a leadership role within the Alabama Law Institute. Manley served a term as Speaker ProTem of the Alabama House.
Representative Jimmy Martin of Clanton died in May of cancer on the last day of the 2019 Regular Legislative Session. He was 80. He knew almost everyone in Chilton County. He and his brother ran their family funeral home.
State Representative Dimitri Polizos of Montgomery passed away in March at 68. He was a longtime Montgomery restaurant owner. He was very well liked and respected in the Capitol City. Dimitri was typical of many of today’s Republican legislators. He was a small business owner and a conservative. Dimitri was not only a successful restaurateur, he also was very active in and an integral part of the Greek community and the Greek Orthodox Church. Polizos served six years in the Legislature prior to that he served six years on the Montgomery County Commission.
Chris McNair passed away in May at 93 in Birmingham. Mr. McNair was a former Jefferson County Commissioner. Chris McNair was a first-class gentleman. We served together in the legislature. We became good friends. He loved photography. He was always taking pictures, in fact it was his business/profession. His daughter Denise was one of the four little girls who were killed by a bomb at the 16th Street Baptist Church in downtown Birmingham in the 1960s. The girls were attending Sunday school. Chris served 15 years on the Jefferson County Commission. He loved his family and his community.
Legendary former Tuscaloosa mayor, Al Dupont, passed away in July at age 94. He served as Mayor of the Druid City for 25 years, retiring in 2005. He was colorful and beloved by many. He was a decorated veteran of World War II and won two Purple Hearts. He was among the first wave of troops who stormed Normandy on D-Day. He epitomized the greatest generation.
Former 1st District Congressman, Jack Edwards, passed away in September at 91. Edwards was one of the first Republican congressmen elected from Alabama in 1964 since Reconstruction. Congressman Edwards served his Mobile/Baldwin County District for exactly 20 years from 1965-1985. Edwards was a stalwart advocate for a strong military. He was a ranking member of the Defense Appropriations Committee.
See you next week.