September 2, 2020 - Labor Day
Labor Day is upcoming on Monday. In bygone days it was the benchmark day for campaign season to start. Historically, Labor Day barbeques were events where political campaigns had their roots. Camp stew and barbequed pork were devoured while folks listened to politicians promise how they were going to bring home the pork.
The most legendary political Labor Day Barbeques have been held in the Northwest corner of the state. There were two monumental, legendary, barbeque events in that neck of the woods that were a must go to event for aspiring and veteran politicians, both locally and statewide.
The Terry Family Reunion is in the Loosier Community of Lawrence County. This is where the large Terry family originated. Actually, a good many of the folks that attend have kinship or ties to the Terry family. Many of the folks in Lawrence County are kin to each other through the large Terry family.
Every serious candidate for governor or major statewide office made the Terry barbeque. It lasted all day. Some would arrive in helicopters, which garnered attention. Legendary icons like Big Jim Folsom, George Wallace, Bill Baxley, Albert Brewer and Howell Heflin attended every year.
Another Labor Day barbeque was held in that area, which was just as important if not quite as big and wide open as the Terry Event. The legendary L. O. Bishop of Colbert County was known for having a Labor Day barbeque bash. His event was big, but more selective. L.O. was and has been for 60 years a leader in the Alabama Farmers Federation. He would only invite the Alfa backed candidates. His barbeque is renowned as the best in the state.
Bishop and Howell Heflin were best friends. Heflin became the best friend the Alabama farmer had. Judge Heflin became Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. He did a yeoman’s job for Alabama Agriculture.
Senator Heflin was from Colbert County. He was renowned for being a great lawyer, storyteller and judge. Being from Northwest Alabama, he made the event of his best friend L. O. Bishop and the Terry Family Reunion every year. He not only made the events, he stayed there all day, grazed and ate barbeque.
Judge loved to eat. He really loved barbeque. You could tell he liked to eat from his large rotund physique. He considered himself a connoisseur of barbeque. In fact, he toured the state every year and he would plan his schedule so that he could eat at his favorite barbeque places in every corner of the state. When he would get through eating a plate of pork or ribs, he would smack his lips, sigh, wipe his face with his handkerchief and say, “That’s some mighty fine barbeque, it’s almost as good as L.O.’s”
It may be hard for some of you to believe, but after World War II and throughout the 1960’s organized labor was king in Alabama, unlike today where most of our large industries are not unionized. During that 20-year period (1946-1966), Alabama was the most unionized state in the South by far. In fact, every major employer in the State of Alabama was a union shop.
Beginning in Northwest Alabama, the Reynolds Aluminum Plant in Sheffield and Florence was union. The Tennessee Valley workers throughout North Alabama were all union. The paper mill and Goodrich Tire Plant in Tuscaloosa were union.
The largest employer in Gadsden, the Goodyear Tire Factory, was union.
The Lee County Tire Manufacturing Plant was union. The military base employees at Ft. Rucker in the wiregrass were union.
The largest employer in Mobile was the state docks. Guess what, Folks? All those workers belong to the union.
The largest employer in Birmingham, as well as the largest employer in the State of Alabama, were the steel mills and U.S. Steel. You guessed it – the steel workers were all unionized. In fact, the Steel Workers Union in Birmingham was the largest in the nation.
The GOP ticket that appears on the ballot in 60 days will be a powerful triumvirate. It has gone under the radar since the presidential and senate races have taken center stage, but popular PSC President Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh is up for reelection. Thus, the Republican ticket will feature and illustrious alliteration of Trump/Tuberville/Twinkle, which will be hard to beat in the Heart of Dixie.
Happy Labor Day!
August 26, 2020 - Legendary Liberal U.S. Supreme Court Justice Hugo Black was from Alabama
The most enduring legacy a president will have is an appointment to the United States Supreme Court. A lifetime appointment to the high tribunal is the ultimate power. The nine Justices of the Supreme Court have omnipotent everlasting power over most major decisions affecting issues and public policy in our nation. President Trump has had two SCOTUS appointments and confirmations. This is monumental. These appointments may be his lasting legacy.
The only Alabamian to ever serve on the U.S. Supreme Court was Hugo Black. It may come as a surprise to you, since Alabama is today considered one of the most conservative places in America, but Hugo Black was arguably one of the most liberal Supreme Court justices in history. He was also one of the longest serving justices.
Black was the fifth longest serving Supreme Court Justice. He sat on the Supreme Court of the United States from 1937 until his death in 1971. Nearly 35 of his 85 years on earth were spent on the Supreme Court.
Hugo Black, like most folks of that era in Alabama history, was born on a farm. Black was from rural Clay County. He was the youngest child of a large family. He worked his way through the University of Alabama Law School under the tutelage of President George Denny. He shoveled coal to stoke the furnaces at the University. He graduated Phi Beta Kappa.
Black began practicing law in Birmingham at 22 years old. He became a Jefferson County Prosecutor and then World War I broke out. He served in the war and rose to the rank of Captain.
In 1926, at age 40, Black was elected to the U.S. Senate. Prior to that he had been a practicing Labor lawyer and won his seat with the help of organized Labor, especially in Birmingham. He arrived in the Senate at the beginning of the Great Depression. During his entire tenure in the Senate, America was in the throes of the Depression. Folks who endured this era were marked by it. It made all southern politicians progressives and new dealers.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt came to the White House in 1932. His New Deal was the most legendary political accomplishment in American history. Black became one of FDR’s staunchest allies. He voted for 24 out of 24 of Roosevelt’s New Deal programs.
Alabama benefitted mightily from FDR’s New Deal, especially rural Alabama and the Tennessee Valley. Roosevelt rewarded Alabama’s junior senator with a coveted seat on the Supreme Court. He was one of nine justices appointed by President Roosevelt during his 13-year reign as president.
It is hard today to imagine that Alabama could produce such a liberal judge. However, during this era of American history, Alabama’s congressional delegation was one of the most liberal in the nation due to the fact that they totally embraced FDR and his New Deal.
Black was a liberal New Dealer in the Senate and liberals were pleased by the Justice from Alabama’s tenure over the next 35 years. Liberals regard Black as one of the most influential Supreme Court Justices of the 20th Century. He literally hung his hat on the 14th Amendment.
Black was a part of the court decision that declared school racial segregation illegal in the famous Brown v. Board of Education decision. He was the author of numerous opinions upholding Civil Rights. Black was known for his liberal policies and Civil liberties. It was interesting and probably unbelievable to most Americans that Alabama’s only contribution to the Supreme Court was one of the most liberal Justices.
In many ways, our current Democratic U.S. Senator, Doug Jones, is very similar to the late Justice Hugo Black. If truth were known, my guess is that one of Doug Jones’ idols is Hugo Black.
Jones is a Birmingham, pro-labor, civil rights, criminal defense lawyer with a background as a prosecutor. He was appointed a U.S. Attorney by a Democrat president. Doug Jones has, throughout his legal career been a national Democrat.
With Jones’s 2017 election to the U.S. Senate, he became and is still a darling superstar among the national Democratic elitists. He is the only Democratic Senator from the Deep South. The liberal Democrats in California and New York adore and admire him. Indeed, the vast majority of his campaign money derives from California and New York zip codes. His defeat of the ultra-conservative, anti-gay marriage judge, Roy Moore, has made him a national Democratic rock star.
It is very likely that Democrat Joe Biden could win the White House. If that occurs, look for Doug Jones as a potential cabinet member. Even though at age 64, Doug Jones is not the ideal choice for a Supreme Court appointment, it is not out of the realm of possibility.
See you next week.
August 19, 2020 - We Have Six Living Past Governors. How Are They Doing?
Some of you may wonder how many past governors we have in Alabama who are still living and how they are doing. We have six living past governors.
Governor John Patterson is our oldest living chief executive. Patterson is 99 years old and living on his ancestral family farm in rural Tallapoosa County in an obscure area named Goldville. Patterson is a legend in Alabama politics. He was Governor from 1958-1962 and was at the forefront of the beginning of the Civil Rights issue. He has the distinction of being the only person to beat George Wallace in a governor’s race in the Heart of Dixie. When he was elected in 1958, he was 37-years-old and was dubbed the “Boy Governor”. Patterson was Attorney General of Alabama for a term prior to being governor and served several decades on the Court of Criminal Appeals after his governorship.
He spends his time on his farm reading and tending to his animals. In fact, visitors to his home will find he has a pet goat named Rebecca. She sits and listens intently to your conversation and her head will move and look at those talking as though she is part of the conversation. Governor Patterson is totally on top of his game and has attended numerous weddings and funerals in the past year. He recognizes and converses with friends and relatives.
Forrest “Fob” James served two terms as governor, although not concurrently. He was first elected in 1978 as a Democrat, serving 1979-1982, and secondly in 1994 as a Republican serving from 1995-1998. He is the only person in state history to be elected governor as a Democrat and a Republican. Fob is 85 and doing well. He lives primarily in Miami, Florida and spends his days walking and caring for his wife, Bobbie.
Robert Bentley was one of the most successful and respected dermatologists in the state prior to entering politics. Bentley served two terms in the Alabama House prior to his being elected governor, twice. He was first elected governor in 2010 and reelected, overwhelmingly, in 2014. He served over six years as governor and did a good job. He is 77-years-old and in good health. He has resumed his medical/dermatology practice in Tuscaloosa.
Bob Riley served two successful terms as governor. He was elected in 2002 and reelected in 2006, therefore serving as governor eight full years. He is only 75-years-old. He was raised in Clay County, and now lives in Birmingham with his lovely wife, Patsy. He has several lucrative lobbying contracts.
If anyone was ever born to be governor, it was Don Siegelman. He was born and raised in Mobile. He went on to the University of Alabama where he was SGA President and then went on to graduate from Georgetown Law School. He served in Alabama politics for 26 years. He was elected Secretary of State, Attorney General of Alabama and Lt. Governor prior to his election as Governor in 1998. He served one term as governor. Siegelman is the last member of the Democratic party as well as the only Roman Catholic to serve as Governor of Alabama.
Don is doing well at 74. I enjoy visiting with him over lunch. He enjoys time with his wife, Lori, and his two grown children, Joseph and Dana and his dog Kona. He has a book out entitled, Stealing our Democracy, which is doing well in sales.
Speaking of being born to be governor, Jim Folsom, Jr. was literally born in the Governor’s Mansion in May 1949, while his daddy, James “Big Jim” Folsom was governor his first term, 1946-1950. Jim Folsom, Jr. had an illustrious career in Alabama politics. He was elected and served several times as a member of the Public Service Commission and three terms as Lt. Governor, prior to becoming governor in 1993. He did an excellent job as governor and is credited with bringing Mercedes to Alabama.
Little Jim was a brilliant politician inherently being the son of the legendary “Big Jim” Folsom. However, most folks say his beautiful wife, Marsha Guthrie, is the better politician of the two. Jim and Marsha are doing well and live in their hometown of Cullman. Their son and daughter are grown and are doing well.
See you next week.
August 12, 2020 - Thoughts on Last Month’s GOP Primary
It has been a month since our mid-July GOP runoffs for the U.S. Senate and two open Congressional seats. Since then, numerous publications as well as many of you have asked me to analyze and assess the outcomes.
In the Senate runoff between Tommy Tuberville and Jeff Sessions the outcome can be explained in one word, “Trump.” It is that simple. Coach Tuberville read the playbook, perfectly and stayed on script. Alabama is Trump Country. President Trump may very well replicate or exceed his 63% 2016 landslide vote in the Heart of Dixie come fall. All Coach Tuberville needs to do is keep doing the same thing. Simply say, “I’m Trump’s man, and I will have his back.”
Tuberville’s Democratic opponent, Doug Jones, has a lot of left-wing money from California that will help our Alabama TV and radio stations and hopefully, newspapers make a lot of money, but it will be for naught. It might allow Jones to get over the traditional 40% threshold for a Democrat in Alabama, but it is tough for a Democrat to win in Alabama, especially in a Presidential year.
With all that money, Jones’ will try to tell Alabamians that he is not a liberal, yellow-dog Democrat, but he is. They will also attack Tuberville unmercifully, personally. Tuberville should not take the bait. He needs to keep his head down and diffuse the assaults and march on simply saying, “I’m Trump’s man.” Under no circumstances should he debate. It only gives Jones credibility.
All Tuberville has to say is that Jones has voted straight down the line with his liberal Democratic friends and colleagues on every major issue. Especially, that he joined his Democratic bedfellows Nancy Pelosi and the California Democrats in the vote to impeach Donald Trump and against Trump’s conservative Supreme Court appointments. Jones and his California team will try to make the race about personalities, Jones versus Tuberville.
However, at the end of the day, Tuberville really does not even have to campaign. On November 3rd it will be a choice between Donald Trump and Tommy Tuberville with a big “R” on top of their names or Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Doug Jones with a big “D” on top of their names. Folks, there is no doubt who will win that fight in the Heart of Dixie.
In the Congressional races, the story was about the Club for Growth. This is an ultra-right-wing group of rich men, who have decided they wanted to spend a lot of money in Republican primaries around the country. For some reason, Alabama’s two open congressional seats in the 1st and 2nd districts attracted these Club for Growth Daddy Warbucks. They wanted to boast that they captured a seat. They bought them one in the 2nd district, but they lost in their attempt to buy the 1st district.
The winner of the 1st district race, the Mobile-Baldwin seat, was won by Jerry Carl. He is a normal pro-business Republican. The right-wing Club for Growth spent over one million dollars trying to elect Carl’s opponent, Bill Hightower. Jerry Carl must be one tough, well thought of Mobilian to overcome that onslaught of money.
In the 2nd district the Club for Growth orchestrated the most amazing comeback upset I have ever seen. Dothan businessman, Jeff Coleman, spent over $2 million of his own money and raised another $2 million from main street conservative groups like Chambers of Commerce and Farmers. This financial advantage propelled Coleman to what looked like a prohibitive lead in the first primary on March 3.
It looked like a cakewalk for Coleman. His opponent was a relatively unknown former state representative named Barry Moore, who barely made it into the runoff. Undoubtedly, the Club for Growth polled the district and saw they could beat Coleman – the mainstream, probusiness Republican. They blindsided him with a million dollars of negative ads and brochures the last three weeks of the campaign.
A million dollars in three weeks in the very inexpensive Montgomery-Dothan media market is insurmountable. Their ads were well designed, vicious, and yes, disingenuous and they worked. The Club for Growth bought themselves a congressional seat. However, they will get very little bang for their buck. Moore will be in Congress two years, then gone. Alabama probably is going to lose a seat to California after this year’s census. In 2022, we will go from seven seats to six. This district likely is the one that will be one on the chopping block. If indeed our 2nd congressional district moves to California, maybe Doug Jones can run for it. His voting record will sell on the left coast.
See you next week.
August 5, 2020 - Tommy Tuberville Ran a Good Disciplined Campaign for Senate
Old political maxims clearly played out true to form in the GOP runoff for our junior U.S. Senate seat on July 14.
Tommy Tuberville ran a very wise and disciplined campaign. He steadily stayed on point and simply said I am going to support Donald Trump. Undoubtedly , when Tuberville decided about a year ago to leave his Florida home and run for the U.S. Senate in Alabama, whoever was advising him knew that the only issue was going to be who could cozy up to Donald J. Trump the most. They gave Tuberville the script and he followed his playbook to perfection. He never deviated and never got distracted by issues, questions, or debates. He simply rode the Donald Trump horse all the way home.
Trump is very popular among Republican voters in the Heart of Dixie. That same horse will more than likely carry Tuberville to victory over Doug Jones in November. Trump will beat Joe Biden 60-40 in the state and Tuberville’s numbers over Jones should be close to that same margin. There will be a lot of straight ticket voting in the Fall. There are more Republican voters than Democratic voters in Alabama.
Therefore, Tuberville’s victory illustrates two cardinal maxims of Alabama politics. Number one is more people vote against someone or something than for someone or something. Trump said he did not like Jeff Sessions and asked Alabama GOP voters to vote against him and they obliged Trump. Secondly, Tuberville kept it simple. He epitomized the old saying, “Keep it simple stupid.” It is called the KISS formula. He stayed on message just like a parrot. He did not have to say much. Trump said it all. It also accrued to Tuberville’s advantage that he was a nonpolitician and Washington outsider. Sessions had sat in this seat in the Senate for 20 years.
Coach Tuberville began the race with some significant name identification. Thus, the third maxim, you must have name identification before you have a chance to win. People are not going to vote for someone they have never of. Tuberville’s name identification numbers were 35% going into the race, which was about as high as Jeff Sessions and a little higher than Bradley Byrne. That is truly a testament to how popular college football is in Alabama.
It had been 10 years since Tuberville had coached at Auburn, but Auburn fans traditionally stick together. I suspect every Auburn football fan in the state voted for Tuberville. It is like one big family. It is not just called the loveliest village on the plains, it is also referred to as the friendliest place you ever visited.
Coincidentally and ironically, Tuberville’s victory is a carbon copy of another Auburn man’s victory for governor 32 years ago. Forrest “Fob” James won the 1978 Governor’s race with the same KISS formula as Tuberville.
Fob James had become wealthy by starting and running a barbell manufacturing company in Opelika. When Fob signed up to run for governor, the press wrote him off as a rich gadfly. Fob quietly used his millions to sign up the most brilliant campaign media strategist in the South, Deloss Walker. Fob was told by Walker never deviate from the script I give you and do not answer any questions.
There were three heavy weights expected to finish first, second and third. Former Governor Albert Brewer, Attorney General Bill Baxley, and Lt. Governor Jere Beasley. As Walker expected, all three spent their time and money beating up on each other while Fob rode a yellow school bus over the state simply saying I am getting back to the basics, reading, writing and arithmetic. Thus, more people vote against someone and the KISS formula.
Walker’s initial polling showed that Fob actually had some name identification from being an Auburn football player in the 1950’s. He was a pretty good halfback. That poll also picked up that Auburn Alumni yearned for an Auburn man to become governor.
In this most recent race, it helped Tuberville immensely that the Alabama Farmers Federation (ALFA) endorsed him early in his quest. This key endorsement gave him credibility and early impetus. Most of the farmers on the endorsement committee by the way are Auburn graduates and Auburn football fans.
The more things change the more they stay the same.
See you next week.
July 29, 2020 - It will be Trump vs Biden in November. Conventions will be anticlimactic.
The presidential race is onward. It will be incumbent Republican Donald Trump vs. former Vice President and 36-year veteran Democrat, Delaware U.S. Senator Joe Biden in the November 3rd General Election.
Both men have clinched their parties’ nomination. Therefore, the Democratic convention, July 31-August 2 and the Republican convention set for August 25-28 will be anticlimactic. It is doubtful that either convention will break any television rating records.
However, there will be one record shattered in this year’s presidential contest. Trump and Biden will be the two oldest presidential contenders in history. Biden is 78 and Trump is 74. Actually, Trump was the oldest person to ever be sworn in as president four-years ago. So if Biden wins he will really break the record at 78.6 years. By the way, the youngest president was John F. Kennedy, who was 43 when he was sworn in as president in January of 1961.
This has already been one of the most unusual presidential election years in American history. The COVID-19 pandemic has turned the world upside down, especially the American economy. The economy is the pivotal issue that decides presidential elections. Prior to the pandemic, the economy was Trump’s trump card. The economic collapse caused by the pandemic was not Trump’s fault but it happened on his watch. There is an old political maxim that says, “If you claim credit for the rain, then you gotta take blame for the drought.”
Trump was not in the lead prior to the pandemic disaster. He is certainly behind the eight ball today. The country is divided like never before in our history. You either live in a red Republican state like Alabama or a blue Democratic state like California. Under the electoral college system of selecting our president, the election is won or lost in the swing states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.
Current polling has Biden ahead in all of these pivotal states. He has double digit leads in Michigan and his birth home of Pennsylvania. It looks like Joe Biden is favored to be the next president at almost 80 years old. Therefore, it is extremely important who he chooses as his running mate to be vice president.
Biden has unequivocally stated that his vice-president will be a female. His choice probably will boil down to California Senator Kamala Harris. Originally, it was between Minnesota Senator, Amy Klobuchar and Senator Kamala Harris.
Senator Klobuchar would have been an excellent choice. She was well qualified and thoroughly vetted. She is Minnesota’s senior senator having represented her native state since 2006. She is very popular in her home state and would probably have brought the swing state of Minnesota into the Democratic column.
However, she withdrew her name for consideration after it became apparent that the Democratic Party base demanded Biden choose a female candidate of color.
Senator Kamala Harris, 55, has had a stellar career. She is very well qualified to be president. She ran an excellent campaign for the Democratic nomination earlier this year and is a U.S. Senator from the largest state in the Union.
She was Attorney General of California prior to being elected to the U.S. Senate from the Golden State. She classifies herself as African-American. Her mother was an Indian/American/Canadian cancer researcher. Her father was a Jamaican born businessman.
By selecting Senator Kamala Harris, Biden chooses a person of non-white ethnicity. African American women are the heart and soul of the Democratic Party and the most reliable Democratic voters. Senator Harris would energize the base. Turnout is the key to any election.
Odds are that if Joe Biden is elected president in November, he will probably be a one-term president. At almost 80, it is doubtful that he would run again in 2024. Therefore, his choice for his running mate and vice president would be favored to be elected president in four years and could become president before then.
There is a tried and true maxim in politics, more people vote against someone than for someone. The Democrats’ plan of attack is for Biden to do nothing, say nothing and let Trump beat himself.
It will be an interesting and important choice for Biden as he or his advisors select his vice-presidential running mate. Again, turnout is the key.
See you next week.
July 22, 2020 - GOP Primary Over, Fall Elections Begin
The field is set for the November General Election and more than likely the races were decided on July 14. We had some good races including the race for our junior U.S. Senate seat as well as two open Congressional seats.
Tommy Tuberville won an impressive 60-40 victory over Jeff Sessions in the GOP primary runoff for U.S. Senate. The tea leaves portend that Tuberville the Republican will defeat the Democrat Doug Jones by that same 60-40 margin. He will win for one reason. He is a solid Republican in a solidly Republican state.
Winning the GOP nomination for a U.S. Senate seat and for that matter any statewide office is tantamount to election in Alabama. We are a very hardcore, safe, red Republican state, especially in a presidential year. It is also a very safe assumption to say that Donald Trump will carry Alabama in the presidential contest, and Trump’s coattails should assure a Tommy Tuberville victory.
The two open Congressional seats in the 1st and 2nd districts are very safely Republican seats. Therefore, the winners Jerry Carl and Barry Moore can start packing for Washington.
A not so subtle participation occurred in our GOP Primaries in Alabama this year. Generally, Republican leaning Political Action Committees, like the Chamber of Commerce, stay out of party primaries and save their ammunition for the General Election battle against Democrats. However, there is a giant that does not play by those rules. This giant is The Club for Growth – a right-wing PAC that promotes Republican candidates that adhere to a free market, free trade, anti-regulation agenda. They also believe and advocate for cutting income taxes and repealing the estate tax. Therefore, as you might guess, the money given to the Club for Growth comes from deep pocketed, very wealthy, very conservative right-wing Americans. They dig deep into their pockets and write big checks primarily to Republican candidates.
As a political observer it is apparent to me that these Big Daddy Warbucks political wannabe players have more money than sense. Anybody with walking around sense knows that anybody elected to a Republican U.S. Senate seat or Republican Congressional seat in Alabama is going to be a conservative pro-business vote in Washington.
Whichever candidate won the 1st District Congressional race was going to vote the same. Yet the Club for Growth spent over $1 million on behalf of Jerry Carl’s opponent. In the 2nd Congressional runoff, the Club for Growth donated over $750,000 on behalf of Barry Moore against Jeff Coleman, either of whom would have voted conservatively or probusiness. In the U.S. Senate first primary race, the Club for Growth spent nearly $700,000 to keep Congressman Bradley Byrne out of the Senate runoff.
This $2.7 million was spent in negative advertisements against their opponents, who again are fellow Republicans who are going to vote identically as the other. They gave their candidates another $300,000 for positive ads. That is $3 million in Alabama.
My question to whoever runs the Club for Growth is, “Do you not think that your money would be put to better use to help Republican U.S. Senate incumbents that are in close reelection contests in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina?” These conservative Republican incumbents are trailing in the polls, as well as behind in fundraising. In short, whoever is calling the shots for the Club for Growth is essentially a political imbecile.
If the Republicans lose the U.S. Senate, then the liberal Democrats will nail those rich idiots’ hides to the wall, and they deserve it. However, Alabama does not deserve it nor can we afford it. If the Republicans lose the majority in the U.S. Senate our crown jewel, Republican Senior Senator Richard Shelby, loses the chairmanship of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and Alabama loses all its power and influence in Washington. You will have a say in that. Currently, national pundits have Doug Jones losing in Alabama to Republican Tommy Tuberville.
However, that is no guarantee. The national Democrats would love to use Doug Jones as a Democratic vehicle to take control of the U.S. Senate and give the chairmanship of the Appropriations Committee to a liberal Democrat. Therefore, philosophy aside, economically a vote for Doug Jones is a vote against Richard Shelby and the State of Alabama.
See you next week.
July 15, 2020 - GOP Senate Race Decided
The much-anticipated battle between former U.S. Senator and U.S. Attorney General, Jeff Sessions and former Auburn football coach, Tommy Tuberville to capture the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate was the marquee event on Tuesday. Unfortunately, my column for this week had to go to press prior to the primary votes being counted.
Polls indicated that Tuberville would win for one reason and one reason only, Donald Trump endorsed him. President Trump is extremely popular among Republican voters in Alabama.
There is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Trump does not like Sessions. Trump has tweeted negative comments about Sessions, not only during this race but consistently for the last three years. Therefore, the message was clear.
Tuberville to his credit ran a very simple campaign and said he is Trump’s man. He never deviated and never delved into the issues. He stayed the course and stuck to the script.
There is a tried and true adage in Alabama politics that more people vote against someone or something than for someone or something. If Sessions lost this race to recapture this Senate seat he held for 20 years, it is because Alabama GOP voters were so enthralled with Donald Trump that they voted against Sessions because Trump asked them to. It certainly was not because Coach Tuberville is more qualified to be our junior U.S. Senator than Jeff Sessions.
It really does not matter which one won. Either one, Tuberville or Sessions will win in November against liberal Democrat Doug Jones. It is almost comical that you have a liberal Democrat who has a three-year voting record of voting straight down the line with the Democratic leadership led by Chuck Schumer, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Nancy Pelosi representing one of the most Republican conservative states in America.
Indeed, Jones is the only Democrat in a U.S. Senate seat from the South. Jones has millions of dollars of left-wing California and New York money in the bank for his fall campaign, as well he should. Californians figure they have stolen our seat and have three senators. He has an identical voting record as the aforementioned liberals, but also identical to California’s two Democratic senators, Kamala Harris and Dianne Feinstein. That is why I refer to Jones as the “California Kid.”
It really does not matter whether Tuberville or Sessions is the one that takes Jones out in November, either one will vote conservatively and straight down the line with the GOP Senate leadership. Both will be older freshman senators and will have very little power. The seniority system prevails in the U.S. Senate and House, which brings me to this point. Why in the world would Donald Trump spend precious time and energy getting involved in a U.S. Senate GOP Primary in Alabama, other than for spiteful vengeance towards a man who simply would not do his bidding and bend the law, his principles, and integrity.
Trump is in a very difficult uphill battle to win a second term as president. He should be focused on campaigning for his own re-election in the five pivotal, battleground states. Under the Electoral College System of selecting our president, these are really the only five to ten states that matter.
We in the Heart of Dixie are irrelevant in the election, as is California. As I have often said, if Mickey Mouse were the Republican nominee, Mickey would carry Alabama. Conversely, if Donald Duck were the Democratic nominee, Donald would carry California.
Folks, the election for president in November will be decided in the states of Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Under the Electoral College numbers, Trump must carry all five of these states. Currently, polling has him losing all five of these states. He is behind by double digits in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
On election night, as his advisors are lamenting a landslide massacre, they may pose this question to the egocentric, brash, New Yorker, “Why on God’s green earth were you campaigning in a Republican U.S. Senate race in Ruby Red Alabama rather than for yourself in the swing state of Florida?”
The media is one of the primary reasons the nation has become so deeply divided along partisan lines. Today, people vote for a party rather than for the individual candidate. You are either in the conservative Republican column or the liberal Democratic corner. CNN and MSNBC, and to a large degree CBS and NBC, are unabashedly the Democratic channels. Whereas FOX News may as well be broadcast from the Republican National Committee headquarters.
See you next week.
July 8, 2020 - Senate and Congressional Runoffs Next Week
Believe or not, coronavirus notwithstanding, we have three important GOP runoffs next Tuesday. You will go back to the polls to elect two Congressmen and a United States Senator. That is assuming that you go vote and are not afraid of germs.
It will be interesting to see how the turnout is on July 14. Mostly older folks, like me, are the ones that vote in all elections and we have been told for four months not to congregate or get around other people. There could be some concern among older voters about getting out and going to the polls. Also, most of the poll workers are retired volunteers.
There is an open Congressional Seat in District 2. Dothan businessman, Jeff Coleman, is the favorite. He garnered close to 40 percent of the vote against a large field of candidates including former Attorney General Troy King, who finished fourth. Former Enterprise State Representative, Barry Moore, finished second with 20 percent and will face Coleman in the runoff next week. This seat is comprised of the Montgomery, Autauga, Elmore River Region area coupled with the Wiregrass. The seat has been held by Montgomery Republican, Martha Roby, for 10 years. She chose not to seek reelection. It is surprising that the two combatants who made the runoff, Jeff Coleman and Barry Moore, hail from the Wiregrass and most of the people are in the River Region.
Coleman has had a substantial campaign dollar advantage over Moore and the entire field running for this open seat. However, Moore has received a $550,000 gift from an innocuous Washington political action committee that has pummeled Coleman with negative ads. This contribution may make this race close.
The 1st District Mobile/Baldwin area seat is also up for grabs, literally. This is the seat open by the departure of Bradley Byrne, who opted to run for the U.S. Senate. The two aspirants who wound up in the runoff, are veteran Mobile County Commissioner and businessman Jerry Carl and former Mobile State Senator Bill Hightower. They finished in a dead heat with Carl getting 39% and Hightower 38% of the vote on March 3. This one will be close and interesting. My guess is that Jerry Carl wins this runoff. He received some late important endorsements in the waning days.
The marquee event will be the GOP runoff for the U.S. Senate between former Senator Jeff Sessions who sat in this seat for 20 years and former Auburn football coach, Tommy Tuberville. This one will also be close. The two conservative gentlemen finished in a virtual tie on March 3.
The winner may be the one who took the best advantage of the three-and-a-half-month hiatus. They each could have and should have simply used the phone to call every single potential Republican voter in the state.
They could have taken a page from the playbook of the most prolific politician in Alabama history, one George C. Wallace. He would keep the telephone glued to his ear. Wallace would constantly call people on the phone 8-10 hours a day. He would call you at all hours of the day and night. Tuberville and Sessions should have used this method of campaigning without getting out of quarantine mode. One-on-one old-fashioned campaigning and asking people for their vote goes a long way in Alabama politics. It always has and it always will. Folks like to be asked for their vote.
Tuberville has outworked Sessions in old fashioned one-on-one campaigning. Although Tuberville is a novice to Alabama geographically and politically, he has traversed the state and met a lot of folks in a grassroots campaign style. He is a very likeable fellow and sells well personally. He did well in the rural areas in the first primary. It helped him immensely, probably more than he realized, with the endorsement and full support of the Alabama Farmers Federation.
If Tuberville wins, he needs to ask for a seat on the Senate Agriculture Committee. We have not had a senator on the Ag Committee since the late Howell Heflin, who was Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. By the way, this seat that Sessions held for 20 years and is running for again and Coach Tuberville is aspiring to, is the seat held by the late Senator Heflin for 18 years.
This runoff has the potential to have a low turnout due to trepidation from older voters and it will be hot as blazes in mid-July.
Y’all vote.
See you next week.
July 1, 2020 - GOP Senate Runoff in Less Than Two Weeks
Folks, we are less than two weeks away from our election contest for our U.S. Senate Seat. The runoff between former Senator Jeff Sessions and former Auburn football coach, Tommy Tuberville may be close and will be interesting.
The two conservatives were in a virtual dead heat in the March 3rd GOP primary. Congressman Bradley Byrne, the Republican U.S. Representative from the 1st District, primarily Mobile and Baldwin counties, finished a strong third.
The runoff was initially set for March 31. However, the coronavirus delayed the runoff until July 14. Therefore, the big question is how did the 15-week delay affect the runoff outcome. It is difficult to say. However, my guess is that it may have been a salvation for Sessions.
Most pundits and polls indicated that Coach Tuberville had the momentum and was set to win the runoff. The over three-month hiatus may have stymied if not thwarted that momentum the same way that football coaches call a timeout when the opposing team is driving toward a winning touchdown. It halts the Big Mo.
Amazingly, the entire campaign has been about Donald Trump and who can cozy up the most to the conservative Republican President. All three frontrunner candidates, Tuberville, Sessions and Byrne made their campaign pitches not about issues but who can be Trump’s buddy or valet.
Sessions and Byrne both had instances where they both had lapses in their obedience to the irrational and irascible Don, so Tuberville’s lack of playing time in the political arena made him the more perceptual slave for Trump.
Coach Tuberville’s entire campaign has been based on his being loyal to Trump. It has paid dividends. He led with 33% to Sessions 32% and Byrnes 25%. Indeed, as soon as the first primary was over in early March, Trump officially endorsed Tuberville. This endorsement propelled Tuberville into a nine-point lead in the polls in mid-March, which is when the pandemic hit and the election was delayed until July 14.
In the meantime, when the national economic virus shutdown subsided somewhat in mid-May, the campaign resumed. Trump again inserted himself into the Alabama GOP Senate race by blasting Sessions again with yet another vitriolic attack. Trump espoused that Sessions had asked him four times to be Attorney General. Finally, Sessions took up for himself and quickly retorted that he never asked Trump for the job.
Folks, I have watched Jeff Sessions’ career as our Junior U.S. Senator for 20 years and prior to that as Alabama’s Attorney General, and I am here to tell you that Jeff Sessions’ truth, veracity, and integrity trumps Trump by a country mile. Honesty, integrity, and truthfulness is not Trump’s forte. However, it has been Sessions’ his entre 30+ years in public service in Alabama.
In fact, Trump owed more to Sessions than naming him Attorney General. When Trump began his quest for the GOP nomination, he was given very little chance. Jeff Sessions’ endorsement as the nation’s most conservative senator gave the bombastic, egocentric New Yorker credibility and gave impetus to his race for the White House.
Actually, I said at the time that Sessions acquiescence to becoming Attorney General was a step down from being a veteran 20-year U.S. Senator and Chairman of the Judiciary Committee in a safe U.S. Senate seat. You can bet your bottom dollar he is now sorry he accepted the post. It is apparent he is not going to get Trump’s endorsement for obvious reasons. He would not break the law or do Trump’s bidding, so Trump hates him.
Trump has reaffirmed his endorsement of Tommy Tuberville. Historically, in Alabama politics, endorsements by one politician in another political race have not been advantageous. In fact, they have been counterproductive. Alabamians have inherently resented endorsements. However, in this case and in this race, my guess is that Trump is so popular among Republican voters in Alabama that his attacks on Sessions and endorsement of Tuberville will propel the coach to victory. In fact, polls show Tuberville with a double-digit lead. He has run a good campaign staying on point and simply saying, I am going to support Donald Trump.
Have a Happy 4th of July.