May 6, 2020 - Budget is Priority Number One for Legislative Session. The Governor Proposes and the Legislature Disposes – However, Kay Ivey has Input
The 2020 Regular Legislative Session has resumed after a six-week hiatus due to the coronavirus shutdown of the state and nation. The session must end by May 18, 2020. The only thing they will do is pass barebones budgets.
The most important and actually the only constitutionally mandated act that must be accomplished is the passage of the state budgets. In our case, we have two state budgets. We have a General Fund like 45 other states, and we have a second Special Education budget.
Like all states, the power is where the money lies. Therefore, the power in the legislature rests with the chairmen of the budgetary money committees. The keeper of the purse strings is a powerful position.
Since the Constitution dictates that all money bills, taxes and budgets must originate in the House of Representatives, and since the Education budget now dwarfs the General Fund to the tune of a 2-to-1 margin, the most relevant committee chairman in the state legislature is Representative Bill Poole (R-Tuscaloosa) who chairs the House Ways and Means Education Budget Committee. He essentially begins crafting of the Education budget. His counterpart in the Senate who helps to slice the education pie is State Senator Arthur Orr (R-Decatur).
The chairman of the General Fund Ways and Means Committee in the House of Representatives is Representative Steve Clouse (R-Ozark). He has been chairman of the Ways and Means General Fund close to a decade and has done a yeoman’s job. His counterpart in the Senate is Senator Greg Albritton (R-Escambia).
The Constitution clearly defines the three branches of government. The Legislative Branch makes the laws, the Governor is the Administrator of State government, and the Judicial Branch defines and enforces the laws made by the Legislature.
However, over the course of history, we have had some very powerful governors who have stepped into the legislative budgetary powers and usurped the power granted to the Legislature. The most notable example would be one George C. Wallace. Not only did he usurp the power of legislators, he made the Legislature an appendage of the Governor’s Office.
During my first term in the Legislature, 1982-1986, which was congruently Wallace’s last term as Governor, he selected the Speaker and the Chairmen of all the House Committees. His office sent the agenda for each legislative day down to the Rules Committee, which simply rubber stamped the Governor’s agenda. Needless to say, the state budget was written and decided by the Governor. Since the Wallace days, the Legislature has taken back their inherent powers.
Governor Don Siegleman had a partnership and worked congruently with the Legislature. However, Fob James had very little influence with the Legislature. He somewhat looked down on them, and in turn they left him out of the process. Guy Hunt was left out because he really did not understand the process.
Bob Riley was totally ignored by the Legislature. The partisan divide between the Republican and Democratic parties had set in. Riley was a Republican and we had a state Senate made up of a veteran smart, crafty and partisan Democrats. They were not about to let Riley into their hen house.
Robert Bentley was completely inept and ineffective with the Legislature. Even though he had been a State Representative, he really had no relationship with the House or the Senate leadership and seemed averse to cultivating them.
Our current Governor, Kay Ivey, has significant input into the state budgets. Not in the way that Wallace did, but in a way designed by the constitutional founders.
Kay Ivey is a strong, decisive leader. She works in partnership with the legislative budget chairmen – Poole, Clouse, Orr and Albritton. Kay has a close working relationship with the legislators, built by decades of working within state government as a Higher Education lobbyist, State Treasurer and Lt. Governor.
Kay has taken a no-nonsense approach to being Governor. She is making decisions that are right for the state and not with an eye to what is politically expedient. She has a close working partnership with the legislative leadership, especially Bill Poole, who is universally respected.
State Representative Dexter Grimsley lost his older sister to the coronavirus. She was a nurse. Big Dexter is cherished and beloved by his legislative colleagues. He is a gentle giant and a true gentleman. Dexter has represented Abbeville and Henry County with distinction for over a decade.
See you next week.
April 29, 2020 - Alabama Leaders Under 45 Who Affect the Political Arena
Last week I discussed Alabama’s outstanding leaders in the political arena. This week allow me to share with you some of the state’s leaders under 45 who are shaping and molding our state from outside the actual pit of the political arena.
The most prominent political power in the under 45 category, who is not in an elected position, is Katie Boyd Britt who heads the Business Council of Alabama. Katie was born to be an Alabama leader 37 years ago in Enterprise. She was a high school leader and was Governor of Girls State. Then she went on to the University of Alabama and excelled academically and was President of the Student Government Association. After college at Alabama, she continued on and graduated from law school at the university.
She practiced law a couple of years, then went to work for our Senior Senator, Richard Shelby. She was his Chief of Staff before becoming Chairman of the Business Council of Alabama. Katie is married to a popular young leader in the state, Wesley Britt, who played football at Alabama and went on to play pro-ball for the New England Patriots. They have two beautiful children.
Katie has a younger sorority sister, who is also a Wiregrass girl – Mary Margaret Carroll from Ozark. She was also an SGA president at the University of Alabama and is one of Alabama’s brightest young lobbyists.
Clay Ryan heads Governmental Affairs for the University of Alabama System. He is smart and savvy. He worked on Supreme Court races when Karl Rove was brought in by the Business community during the Tort Reform wars. He was directing governmental affairs for a prominent Birmingham law firm when he moved to the University of Alabama System. The 42 year old leads the governmental directions of the state’s largest employer.
Alabama Power will remain the most powerful governmental entity in the state for the next generation with the likes of Houston Smith (40) and R.B. Walker (33) who are prolific Governmental Affairs Specialists.
Houston is the son of a prominent Power Company couple. Both his mother and dad were top officers in the company. Houston is steeped in knowledge of utilities and Alabama government. R.B. grew up in Montgomery and was President of the Student Government Association at the University of Alabama. He understands politics.
Speaking of utility companies, Power South has a superstar lobbyist arising in 35 year old Montgomery native Taylor Williams.
Governor Kay Ivey has some young super stars on her staff. She has a husband and wife team that are outstanding in Bill and Liz Filmore. Liz has been with Kay Ivey going back to her campaign for Lt. Governor. She commands the Governor’s respect because of her unwavering loyalty and keen political senses.
Her husband, Bill Filmore, is the Governor’s Legislative Director. He has the respect of both parties and leaders of both Chambers. He is very knowledgeable and a straight shooter. Bill comes from a political family. His daddy is a Wiregrass judge and Bill was SGA President at Troy University.
Leah Garner, who is the Governor’s Communications Director is very bright and sees the big picture of Alabama politics. Gina Maiola does an outstanding job as the Governor’s Press Secretary. She is an extremely talented wordsmith. She shoots straight with the press and they appreciate her honesty and accessibility.
Speaking of the media, you have some outstanding under 45 superstars covering the political world in Alabama. Sean Ross (26) joined Yellowhammer News in 2018 and quickly became editor. He is doing a super job of putting this online media news network on top. He understands Alabama politics amazingly for his age. He is a graduate of the University of Alabama and was involved in student politics.
Jeff Poor has taken over talk radio in Huntsville. He is very knowledgeable and conservative in an erudite way. Talk radio is very popular in that part of the state. He brings a less strident and quality voice to that medium, especially in that market.
Young Jack Royer, at the ripe age of 24, has become the television anchor rock star in the state. He anchors the CBS 42 nightly news with Sherri Jackson. The Birmingham media market dominates the state. Jack who only graduated from the University of Alabama 2 years ago, was born to be a television reporter and anchor. His dad, Mike Royer, was a renowned and very highly respected TV anchor in Birmingham for decades.
See you next week.
April 22, 2020 - Alabama has some outstanding Political Leaders under 45
Many of you have lamented to me that it appears that all or most of our state political leaders are older folks. On first glance, that appears to be true. However, on a deeper observation we have some extremely talented younger stars on the horizon. In fact, they are already in the ring and making a difference.
There are a few names that are worth watching. Allow me to share with you a select group of Alabama’s under 45 outstanding leaders. There are two superstars already on the scene and leading the state: State Representative Bill Poole of Tuscaloosa and Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth.
Rep. Bill Poole is a true leader, not a politician. He quietly and effectively gets things done. In close to six decades of observing the legislature, I have never seen anyone rise to the level of diplomacy and effectiveness as Poole while at the same time be universally liked and respected by the entire legislature on both sides of the aisle. He has been in the legislature for only 10 years. However, after only four years he was made chairman of the House Ways and Means Education Budget Committee. This is one of, if not the most powerful positions in the legislature.
Poole may make a statewide move in 2022. However, from a power standpoint there are very few statewide positions that would equal being Chairman of the Ways and Means Education Budget Committee. Governor or U.S. Senator are the only two that would be comparable.
Speaking of Governor, our young 39 year old Lt. Governor, Will Ainsworth has an unabashed eye on the Governor’s office in 2022. If Kay Ivey does not run for a second term as most experts think will be the case, Ainsworth will be the frontrunner. He has set his sights on the brass ring and will be tough to beat. He has a very attractive young family and is a very good campaigner. He is very conservative and hails from vote rich North Alabama.
Another fellow that is Ainsworth’s neighbor from Sand Mountain, State Senator Clay Scofield, is the brightest young star under 45 in the Alabama State Senate. Scofield is a folksy farmer, who you cannot help but like. He comes from a long line of prominent farmers. He is in his third term and is only 39 years old and is already in a leadership position in the Senate.
Another senator to watch is 40-year-old freshman Chris Elliott from Baldwin County. He has previously served on the Baldwin County Commission and knows how to get things done. He is going to be an effective voice for the Gulf Coast region of the state.
Young 36-year-old Senator Andrew Jones is going to be a strong advocate for his Cherokee/Etowah County constituents. He works hard at home staying in touch with folks in his district.
The name that appears on most lists as the freshman Senator to watch is Cullman County’s Garlan Gudger. He is very sincere and exudes integrity. He is a businessman, non-lawyer which is more of the profile in the Republican laden State Senate.
The House of Representatives has at least four young under 45 superstars. State Representative, Chris England, 43, is atop the list. He is the son of prominent Tuscaloosa Judge John England. Chris, like his dad, is a lawyer by profession. He is in his third term in the House and is also Chairman of the Alabama Democratic Party.
Representative Anthony Daniels of Huntsville is a superstar. He is serving his second term from the Rocket City and it is apropos that he is a high-tech businessman. This 36 year old gentleman is handsome, articulate, and chairs the Democratic Caucus in the House.
Representative Kyle South, who represents Fayette and Tuscaloosa Counties, is on a fast track in the House and understands politics.
Representative Wes Allen of Troy has a bright future. He is 44 and has already served 10 years as Probate Judge of Pike County.
You may have noticed that I have listed nine legislators, four from the Senate and five from the House. Three of the nine are from the Tuscaloosa metro area – Bill Poole, Chris England, and Kyle South – not a bad sign for the Druid City.
Newly elected Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed makes the list of the brightest young leaders in the state at 45. The Mayor of Alabama’s largest city, Birmingham, Randall Woodfin, is only 38. Therefore, the mayors of two of Alabama’s largest cities are 45 and under.
This concludes the 45 and under superstars that are actually in the political arena. Stay tuned next week, we will give you a list of those that affect the arena.
See you next week.
April 15, 2020 - Allow me to share some more observations from the year.
One of my favorite people in the world and one of the finest gentlemen I have ever known is State Representative Steve Clouse of Ozark. My relationship with Steve goes under the category of Alabama is one Big Front Porch.
His sweet mother, Mrs. Ruth Price Clouse, passed away a month or so ago at 93. There was a nice church service at the First Methodist Church of Ozark. Afterwards, Steve and his lovely wife, Dianne, invited folks to come over to their house across the street from their church. It was a splendid gathering.
Our mamas grew up as best friends and Steve and I are close friends. Mama and Mrs. Ruth were friends through grade school and Troy High School. Mrs. Ruth married Jimmy Clouse from Ozark. They had two children, Steve and Kay. I had a sister named Kay. I always wondered if that was just a coincidence.
Steve and I would play together as boys. As we grew older, we both went to the University of Alabama and were fraternity brothers. Then I went to the Legislature at around 31. Steve was elected eight years later. We served together in the House for about a decade.
Our districts adjoined – my district was Pike County and part of Dale County. Steve’s district was Dale County. Our names were so similar that people today get us confused. Whenever I stop in Ozark, invariably people will say to me, “I like the way you voted” on some measure thinking that I am Steve Clouse. He tells me the same thing happens to him; someone will say to him, “I liked your column this week.” However, that is where the similarities end. Steve is a better man that I am and, as he is quick to point out, he is five years younger.
If anyone knows the Katherine Tucker Windham adage, Alabama is just a Big Front Porch, it is Secretary of State John Merrill. He knows every crook and cranny of this state from one end to the other. He knows more people one-on-one than any other political figure in the state. He is by far the best retail politician in Alabama and has a tremendous grassroots organization in the Heart-of-Dixie.
Bradley Byrne worked hard in every county of the state in his race for the U.S. Senate. He has nothing to be ashamed of nor could he have done anything differently. He received 26% to Tommy Tuberville’s 33% and Jeff Sessions’ 32% in the March 3 primary. He could have won the race had Sessions not gotten in it at the last minute. He still would have probably made the run-off if a Super PAC, called the Club of Growth, had not spent over a half-a-million dollars in negative ads against him.
Byrne seems to be snake-bit by third party interlopers getting into his race. He would have won the 2010 governor’s race had Dr. Paul Hubbert and the AEA not spent two million dollars in negative ads against him. Now the Club for Growth kicks him out of the Senate race.
Very few Alabamians are aware that one of Alabama’s finest ladies, Vicki Drummond, of Jasper is Secretary of the National Republican Party. Mrs. Drummond was elected by her peers on the national committee to this prestigious and important post. She is the only Alabamian in state history to hold this position on the national political stage.
Vicki was a Republican before it was cool. She has worked in the state and Republican vineyards her entire adult life. She and husband, Dr. Mike Drummond, a Jasper dentist, have been leaders in their community and church, as well as the Republican party. They have two sons, Michael and Matthew, who both worked in the George W. Bush White House.
Mike Cason continues to be the premier political reporter in the state. The veteran follower of Alabama politics is concise and factual. You can take what he writes to the bank. He has taken the throne left by Phil Rawls as the best-on-the-block. He is also a good writer.
Joe Reed’s day as the King of the Democratic Party is over. A new, young group of outstanding leaders have taken the state Democratic Party away from him. His Alabama Democratic Conference took a terrible beating in the recent Democratic Presidential Primary in the state. Reed went out on a limb and endorsed Michael Bloomberg. Joe Biden gave him a good old-fashioned whipping in Alabama. Bloomberg only got 12 percent of the vote in the state.
Former governor Don Siegelman has a new book out, Stealing Our Democracy. It is a memoir that reveals how the political assassination of a governor threatens our nation.
See you next week.
April 8, 2020 - Some Observations
Allow me to share some observations from the year thus far. First of all, I have never seen anything like the coronavirus shutdown of the country. Hopefully, it is a once in a lifetime disaster.
Governor Kay Ivey remains popular. Even though some people consider the defeat of Amendment One a personal rejection, it was not. Alabamians just like to vote to elect their political and, in this case, educational leaders.
As you recall, Amendment One was asking Alabamians to give up their right to vote on the State Schoolboard and to allow the governor to appoint them instead. When I was queried on whether Amendment One would pass, I quickly told them it would lose 60 to 40. I was wrong, it took more of a shellacking than that. It lost 75 to 25. Folks, that sends a message. You may not know who serves on the State Schoolboard, but Alabamians surely want to vote for them.
Governor Ivey’s people do a good job of looking after her and protecting her time. She is all business and is very scheduled. She and her staff treat the office with a dignity I have not seen in decades. She is focused on the job at hand and an audience with her must be for a purpose, even with legislators. Her staff gets her in-and-out and protects her time and health. She has been especially isolated since the coronavirus epidemic. She will more than likely not run for a second term in 2022.
Waiting in the wings to run is Lt. Governor, Will Ainsworth. He just turned 39 and will be in the race for the brass ring in 2022. If being an outstanding family man is a prerequisite, he will be a contender. He has a genuinely sweet and pretty wife named Kendall. They have fraternal twin boys, Hunter and Hays, who are 10 and a little 8-year-old girl named Addie. I met the boys the night of the State of the State Address. Will brought them over to where I was standing and wanted us to meet. The little boys were the most polished ten-year-old’s I have ever met. They very politely, yet confidently looked me in the eye and shook my hand and said, “It’s nice to meet you Mr. Flowers.” They exuded manners.
Kay Ivey only attends the most important events and she does not lollygag around conversing afterwards. Therefore, it was apparent when she came to Birmingham earlier this year to the Grand Opening of Dr. Swaid Swaid’s, state-of-the-art medical facility, that Swaid was special.
Dr. Swaid has been a friend and supporter of almost every governor, going back to George Wallace. Governor Wallace came to UAB to see Swaid and would not only want the famed physician to treat him for his numerous afflictions and ailments, but also enjoyed visiting with the jovial Galilean doctor. Swaid has many great stories from his and the governor’s visits and friendship.
Swaid’s best friend is State Senator Jabo Waggoner. They are really like brothers rather than just best friends. Jabo is the longest serving member in the history of the state legislature. He chairs the State Senate Rules Committee.
Jabo and Swaid and their families spend almost every weekend together, either at their homes in Vestavia or Smith Lake. However, they make it to their church, Homewood Church of Christ, almost every Sunday. Jabo and his beautiful wife, Marilyn, have attended the church for 45 years. Swaid has attended for 40 years. Jabo and Swaid are leaders in this mega church.
Recently, Jabo and Marilyn and Swaid and his lovely wife, Christy, invited me to join them for their church service and lunch afterwards. It was an enjoyable visit. The most rewarding part was meeting Swaid and Christy’s two sons, Christian and Cason. They are absolutely the politest and quality young men I have met. They are being raised right by an obviously good Christian father and mother.
Swaid built his state-of-the-art surgery hospital on well-traveled, easily accessible Highway 31 in Vestavia. He chose the location because he knew from his work over the years, that people from all over the state, especially rural areas, come to Birmingham for major surgery. Most of these patients are older and not familiar with Birmingham traffic, especially with maneuvering the labyrinth around UAB. It will make it much easier to see the world-renowned doctors in Swaid’s group.
If Swaid’s boys are an example of the next generation, our state may be in better hands than we think.
See you next week.
April 1, 2020 - “The 1964 Goldwater Landslide was the Beginning of Republican Dominance of the South”
Our primary runoffs have been postponed until July 14, 2020. It was a wise and prudent decision by Secretary of State John Merrill and Gov. Kay Ivey. Most voters are older and you are asking them to come out and vote and at the same time stay home.
The main event will be the GOP runoff for the U.S. Senate. The two combatants, Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville, will now square off in the middle of a hot Alabama summer. The winner will be heavily favored to go to Washington. We are a very reliably Republican state especially in a presidential election year.
Many of you have asked, “When did Alabama become a dominant one-party Republican state?” Well it all began in the Presidential year of 1964. The 1964 election was the turning point when the Deep South states of Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina voted for Barry Goldwater and never looked back. It was the race issue that won southerners over for Goldwater. The Republican Party captured the race issue that year and have never let go of it.
The South which was known as the “Solid South” for more than six decades, because we were solidly Democratic, are today known as the “Solid South” because we are solidly Republican. Presidential candidates ignore us during the campaign because it is a foregone conclusion that we will vote Republican, just as presidential candidates ignored us for the first 60 years of the 20th Century, because it was a foregone conclusion that we were going to vote Democratic.
George Wallace had ridden the race issue into the Governor’s office in 1962. It had reached a fever pitch in 1964. Democratic President, Lyndon Johnson, had passed sweeping Civil Rights legislation which white southerners detested.
The only non-southern senator to oppose the Civil Rights legislation was Republican Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona. When the Republican Party met at the old Cow Palace in San Francisco, they nominated Goldwater as their 1964 presidential candidate. Johnson annihilated him, nationwide, but Goldwater won the South in a landslide.
Before that fall day in November of 1964, there was no Republican Party in Alabama. There were no Republican officeholders. There was no Republican primary. Republicans chose their candidates in backroom conventions. Except for a few Lincoln Republicans in the hill counties, it was hard getting a white Alabamian even to admit they were Republican.
That all changed in 1964. Goldwater and the Republicans became identified with segregation and the white Southern voter fled the Democratic Party en masse. As the Fall election of 1964 approached the talk in the country stores around Alabama was that a good many good ole boys were going to vote straight Republican even if their daddies did turn over in their graves. Enterprising local bottling companies got into the debate and filled up drink boxes in the country stores labeled Johnson Juice and Gold Water. The Gold Water was outselling the Johnson Juice 3-to-1.
Alabamians not only voted for Barry Goldwater but also pulled the straight Republican lever out of anger towards Lyndon Johnson’s Civil Rights agenda. Most of Alabama’s eight-member Congressional delegation, with more than 100 years of seniority was wiped out by straight ticket Republican voting on that November 1964 day.
Earlier that year, Lyndon B. Johnson, the toughest, crudest, most corrupt and yes most effective man to ever serve in the White House, made a profound statement. As he signed the Civil Rights Bill he had pushed through Congress, he looked over at the great Southern Lion, Richard Russell of Georgia, and as Senator Russell glared at Johnson with his steel stare, Lyndon said, “I just signed the South over to the Republican Party for the next 60 years.” Johnson’s words were prophetic.
Folks, beginning with the 1964 election, there have been 17 presidential elections counting this year. If you assume that Donald Trump carries our state in November, that is a safe assumption, Alabama has voted for the Republican nominee 16 out of 17 elections over the past 56 years. Georgia peanut farmer, Jimmy Carter, is the only interloper for the Democrats in 1976.
The U.S. Senate seat up this year was first won by a Republican in 1996. That Republican was Jeff Sessions.
So folks, in 1964, Alabama became a Republican state and it happened in what was called the Southern Republican “Goldwater Landslide.”
See you next week.
March 25, 2020 - U.S. Senate Runoff Moved to July
The GOP contest for who sits in our number two U.S. Senate seat has been delated until July 14, 2020 due to the coronavirus. The winner of the battle between Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville will more than likely be our junior US. Senator for six years.
Neither are spring chickens. Sessions will be 74 and Tuberville will be 66, when the winner takes office. This is not the optimum age to be a freshman U.S. Senator because seniority equates to superiority in the U.S. Senate. Given their age of arrival neither will be given much deference or have much influence. Sessions’ 20 years goes for naught. He does not get his seniority back. Instead, he goes to the back of the line as would Tuberville.
Sessions really does not want to be influential. During his tenure he wanted to be the choir boy and Eagle Scout of the Senate. He was the most honest and conservative member of the Senate. He wore that badge proudly and would again.
Tuberville is planning to be Trump’s bodyguard and valet. He will not know where the bathroom is, what committees he has been placed on, or where to sit, much less how to pass a bill or get anything accomplished for Alabama. After about six years he will realize he is a Senator from Alabama, not Arkansas or Florida. His only mission as a campaigner appears to be that he can shoot a gun and wants to be Donald Trump’s pawn.
The irony with this Trump love affair is legitimate polling that points to a Tuberville victory also reveals a Trump loss. Trump probably is not going to be president when either Tuberville or Sessions takes office. Anybody with a cursory knowledge of how our president is elected under the Electoral College System realizes that if Trump loses any of the key pivotal battleground states of Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota or Pennsylvania, he loses the Whitehouse. If Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee, current polling clearly has him favored to carry all of those states. He is pretty much a lock to win his home state of Pennsylvania.
The winner of the Tuberville-Sessions contest will be our junior senator. Either one will beat our anomaly, Democratic interloper Doug Jones, probably 60 to 40. Being the Republican nominee for a U.S. Senate Seat in the Heart of Dixie is tantamount to election, especially in a presidential election year with Donald Trump atop the ticket.
It really does not matter which one is elected, they both will vote conservatively and look at their roles as being a reactionary ideologue. Neither will garner much power. However, that does not matter when you have Senator Richard Shelby as your senior Senator. He has enough power that we really do not need a second senator.
Most pundits were saying Tuberville had momentum and was heading towards a victory, especially with Trump’s endorsement. However, with 15 weeks to prepare rather than 10 days it is a new ballgame.
Allow me to share two cardinal caveats I have shared with you over the years, and which I have recently shared with national media people who have asked for my insight on this race. First, Alabamians have shown a unique but overwhelming aversion to one politician endorsing another for another office. I was taught this rule of Alabama politics when I was a young legislator.
It is a cardinal rule in Alabama politics that you do not get involved in other races. Alabamians have a very dim view of this practice. They seem to inherently say, “We elected you to your office. You ought to be thankful for that and not show an arrogance that you are so good and anointed that you want to tell us who to vote to place in another office.”
George Wallace, in his hey-day, when he was at the height of his popularity, would endorse someone and invariably they would lose. Less y’all forget, Trump endorsed Luther Strange for this same seat. He then lost to Roy Moore. Then Trump endorsed Roy Moore and he immediately lost to Doug Jones. Alabamians do not think much of endorsements, in fact they resent them.
The second caveat is Alabamians will universally, overwhelmingly vote for someone from their neck of the woods. It is called “Friends and Neighbors” politics. Jeff Sessions lives in and is from Mobile. The voter turnout in Mobile-Baldwin is going to be the highest in the State because there is a tossup runoff race between Jerry Carl and Bill Hightower to fill Bradley Byrne’s 1st Congressional District seat.
We will see in mid-July week.
March 18, 2020 - U.S. Senate Race Decided in Runoff
We have a great race for the U.S. Senate. When the votes from the first primary were counted Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville were in a virtual tie at 32% and 33%, respectively.
Mobile-Baldwin Congressman Bradley Byrne garnered 25% of the vote which is significant and Judge Roy Moore’s 7% is nothing to sneeze at. Tuberville and Sessions will be fighting to convince Byrne and Moore voters to come to their aid. However, the most important quotient of Sessions’ and Tuberville’s missions will be to get their voters back to the polls.
Turn out is the key to a political victory. They only count the votes of those folks who go to the polls and vote. The most important ingredient to amassing your voters back to the polls is money. Campaign money is the mother’s milk of politics. The two runoff contenders are not overflowing with campaign cash. Sessions has about $1 million to spend and Tuberville has even less.
There is no question that President Donald Trump is very popular among Republican primary voters in the Heart of Dixie. It was apparent by just a cursory observation of the ads that all three of the frontrunners, Sessions, Tuberville and Byrne, were determined to say they loved Trump the most, and their negative ads insinuated that one of the others was not going to cozy up to Trump. The loser in the Trump best friend campaign was Jeff Sessions. Trump’s vitriolic tweets toward Sessions, during his three years as Attorney General, were easy ammunition.
This seat was held by Jeff Sessions for 20 years. Therefore, when he entered the fray late, most pundits expected him to waltz to victory even though there were some thoroughbreds in the race. With the likes of Tuberville, Byrne and Moore, it was doubtful that he could win without a runoff. Polling indicated 10 days out that Tuberville had caught him and that they would wind up in a dead heat. Conventional wisdom suggests that with Sessions being the quasi incumbent and Tuberville being the anti-Washington establishment outsider that Tuberville is favored to win. Tuberville was given an early boost from Trump when the tweeting president sent out a negative tweet towards Sessions, the day after the March 3 primary. The next day, Trump bombshelled Sessions again and endorsed the coach.
The non-politician, pro-Trump campaign of Coach Tuberville has been effective. He ran well in rural Alabama where he campaigned hard one-on-one and having the Alabama Farmers Federation Association (ALFA) endorsement helped him immensely.
Tuberville’s vulnerability is his lack of knowledge of the issues and the fact that he was a Florida resident up until the time he decided to run for the Senate in Alabama. Sessions’ vulnerability is obviously Trump’s displeasure with him as U.S. Attorney General for not bending the law.
Therefore, my advice to each of the campaigns is this – for Tuberville, I would firmly say I could choose to live anywhere in the country. I chose to live in Alabama. In Sessions case, I would tell a story that might resonate with Alabama voters similar to the following:
We had a very popular president in the 1930s and 1940s named Franklin Delano Roosevelt. FDR was beloved all over the country, especially throughout the south. He was idolized in Georgia where he lived a good bit of the time at Warm Springs.
FDR was attempting a bold move to add six seats to the U.S. Supreme Court in order to keep the older conservative jurists from blocking some of his New Deal programs. History calls it the FDR Court Packing Plan.
The veteran Georgia Senator, Walter George, opposed FDR’s court packing legislation. Senator George was up for reelection. There was a monumental event in the Peach State where every dignitary was there. President Roosevelt came to the event and with Senator George on the stage FDR lambasted and ridiculed him and asked Georgia voters to vote him out of office.
When it got time for Senator George to speak, the old veteran Georgian quietly and humbly said,
“Mr. President we appreciate you being here. We in Georgia love and respect you. You’re the greatest president this country has ever had, but Mr. President the people of Georgia will elect their senator.” He quietly sat down and was reelected two weeks later.
See you next week.
March 11, 2020 - March 3rd Primary Analysis
Allow me to Share some thoughts and analysis on the March 3rd Primary results.
The Primary is referred to as the Presidential Preference Primary. Voters choose which Party Primary they want to vote in and which presidential candidate they prefer to be their Party’s nominee.
The turnout was amazingly high, despite rain and inclement weather over the State. 1,168,000 Alabamians voted. 753,000 voted in the Republican Primary and 444,000 voted in the Democratic Primary. That equates to 62% Republican and 38% Democratic voters.
It is my assessment that the same percentage is exactly what the outcome of the Presidential Race will look like in November. President Donald Trump carried Alabama with 63% in 2016 and that is about what the numbers will look like in the fall General Election. Trump will match his 2016 victory in the State.
It is my opinion that Trump’s popularity among Republican voters is what accounted for the large voter turnout last Tuesday. Conservative Alabama voters came out in droves to display their approval and loyalty to the Don.
This 62% to 38% GOP advantage seems to be the benchmark for a Republican versus Democratic contest in the State. This does not bode well for our liberal anomaly Democratic U.S. Senator Doug Jones who, over his two-year tenure, has voted to impeach Trump and sports a voting record identical to Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi. I will be surprised if Jones gets 40%, which is considered the ceiling for a Democrat in a statewide race in Alabama.
Joe Biden had a spectacular day in our state in the Democratic presidential contest. Biden received 63%. His closest challenger was Bernie Sanders who got 16%.
Alabama was an integral part of the building block for Biden’s Super Victory Day on Super Tuesday. Along with Alabama, the southern states of Virginia, Tennessee and North Carolina all fell in line to give Biden a pivotal southern impetus that has propelled him into becoming the Democratic frontrunner. He is the only semi-moderate candidate left standing in the Democratic field. It is now Joe Biden versus Bernie Sanders in the Democratic race. The socialist Sanders will probably arrive at the Democratic Convention with the most delegates, but a brokered convention will probably render Biden as the nominee to face Trump.
The race for the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Doug Jones was the marquee event in the state races. This seat was held by Senator Jeff Sessions for 20 years. He is probably very sorry he accepted the U.S. Attorney role. He entered the contest late and it is apparent that Trump’s vitriolic tweets over those three years was devastating to Sessions run to recapture his old seat. He received 31% of the Primary vote and will face former Auburn football coach, Tommy Tuberville, who actually bested Sessions with 32%.
Tuberville ran as a non-politician outsider and categorized Sessions and third place finisher Bradley Byrne as Washington establishment insiders. Byrne who garnered 27% of the vote may have made the runoff if a Super PAC called the “Club for Growth” had not spent over $600,000 on negative ads against him. Judge Roy Moore got 7%, and this probably ends the 73-year-old’s political career. However, Byrne’s good showing allows him the opportunity to make another race.
Incumbent Supreme Court Justice Greg Shaw defeated challenger State Senator Cam Ward by a 59 to 41 margin, in no small part to having the best designed television ad of the campaign season, which ran the last week of the campaign.
State Representative Matt Fridy outdistanced Phillip Bahakel 66% to 34% in an open race for the Court of Criminal Appeals.
The two biggest winners in the GOP Primary were PSC President Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh and Court of Criminal Appeals Presiding Judge Mary Windom. Twinkle got 74% against her opponent, and Mary Windom bested her challenger 70% to 30%.
The two open congressional races are headed for a March 31 runoff. In the 1st District, Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl led former State Senator Bill Hightower, narrowly, 39% to 37%. In the 2nd District Dothan businessman, Jeff Coleman, received 39% to former Coffee County State Representative Barry Moore’s 21%. These two contests will be interesting to watch on March 31. However, the big contest will be the runoff between Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville for the U.S. Senate race.
See you next week.
March 4, 2020 - Chancellor Finis St. John and the University of Alabama System
Our 1901 Alabama Constitution has been rightfully criticized as being archaic. However, it was simply a reflection of the times. The authors and crafters of our document were well educated gentry. Therefore they appreciated and realized the importance of having a prized capstone university.
The University of Alabama was founded in 1831 and had become one of the premier southern universities by the time of the Civil War. It was not by coincidence that one of the primary missions of the northern Union invasion of the South was to burn and raze the University of Alabama campus. They knew the importance of a state having an exemplary institution of higher learning.
Therefore, when the authors of our Constitution crafted their document, they chose to place the University of Alabama above politics and keep the institution in the auspices of high-minded individuals who would be above reproach and petty politics.
The Constitution created a self-appointing, perpetual Board of Trustees to guide and govern the university. This concept has played out magnificently throughout the years. The Board of Trustees has been made up of men and women over the past two centuries who have been leaders of our state. These board members have not only been the most distinguished, erudite people in Alabama, but also those known for their integrity and humility.
Thus it was a unique and yet brilliant decision to choose someone from the Board of Trustees to head the University of Alabama System. In July 2018, Finis E. St. John IV, who had served 17 years on the University System Board was named Chancellor.
He became the Chief Executive Officer of what would be comparable to a Fortune 500 company. The University of Alabama System is not only Alabama’s largest higher education enterprise, it is Alabama’s largest employer with over 45,000 employees and an economic impact of over $10 billion per year.
The Alabama System is comprised of three dynamic institutions: The University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, University of Alabama at Huntsville and the University of Alabama at Birmingham, which comprises our world renowned UAB Health System. UAB alone is by far Jefferson County’s largest employer and economic engine, it is indeed the State of Alabama’s number one employer and economic ingredient.
It would have been an easy choice for the Board to choose to bring in an academician from an Ivy League school to head this prestigious institution. The choice of Finis St. John reflects the collective wisdom of this austere body. Why not select someone who has been an integral part of the governing and spearheading of the unparalleled growth of our state’s crown jewel and most significant financial and educational and research institution.
Finis St. John IV, better known by colleagues and older acquaintances as Fess, is widely respected. He knows Alabama, its history, and its attributes. His family settled in Alabama in 1838 and have been leaders in our state throughout the state’s history.
Chancellor Finis “Fess” St. John was the most outstanding leader on campus during his four years at the University of Alabama in the 1970s. He graduated magna cum laude and was inducted into Phi Beta Kappa and ODK and graduated with honors.
After his undergraduate process at the Capstone, he was accepted and proceeded to the prestigious University of Virginia School of Law. He graduated at the top of his law school class in 1982 and clerked for a federal judge for a while before coming home to Cullman to join his family law firm.
The St. John law firm in Cullman, that Fess joined 36 years ago, is one of Alabama’s oldest law firms. The St. John family has a long and distinguished history of service. His father, grandfather and great grandfather served in the Alabama Legislature. His mother was the first female attorney in Cullman and his great great grandfather, who arrived in Cullman in 1838 and was soon elected to the Alabama General Assembly, was instrumental in creating our state’s public education system.
Chancellor St. John understands and knows the history and potential of our state in a very unique way. This, coupled with his brilliant intellect, makes him ideal. If anyone was ever born to lead the current University of Alabama System, it is Finis “Fess” St. John, IV.
See you next week.