August 12, 2020 - Thoughts on Last Month’s GOP Primary
It has been a month since our mid-July GOP runoffs for the U.S. Senate and two open Congressional seats. Since then, numerous publications as well as many of you have asked me to analyze and assess the outcomes.
In the Senate runoff between Tommy Tuberville and Jeff Sessions the outcome can be explained in one word, “Trump.” It is that simple. Coach Tuberville read the playbook, perfectly and stayed on script. Alabama is Trump Country. President Trump may very well replicate or exceed his 63% 2016 landslide vote in the Heart of Dixie come fall. All Coach Tuberville needs to do is keep doing the same thing. Simply say, “I’m Trump’s man, and I will have his back.”
Tuberville’s Democratic opponent, Doug Jones, has a lot of left-wing money from California that will help our Alabama TV and radio stations and hopefully, newspapers make a lot of money, but it will be for naught. It might allow Jones to get over the traditional 40% threshold for a Democrat in Alabama, but it is tough for a Democrat to win in Alabama, especially in a Presidential year.
With all that money, Jones’ will try to tell Alabamians that he is not a liberal, yellow-dog Democrat, but he is. They will also attack Tuberville unmercifully, personally. Tuberville should not take the bait. He needs to keep his head down and diffuse the assaults and march on simply saying, “I’m Trump’s man.” Under no circumstances should he debate. It only gives Jones credibility.
All Tuberville has to say is that Jones has voted straight down the line with his liberal Democratic friends and colleagues on every major issue. Especially, that he joined his Democratic bedfellows Nancy Pelosi and the California Democrats in the vote to impeach Donald Trump and against Trump’s conservative Supreme Court appointments. Jones and his California team will try to make the race about personalities, Jones versus Tuberville.
However, at the end of the day, Tuberville really does not even have to campaign. On November 3rd it will be a choice between Donald Trump and Tommy Tuberville with a big “R” on top of their names or Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Doug Jones with a big “D” on top of their names. Folks, there is no doubt who will win that fight in the Heart of Dixie.
In the Congressional races, the story was about the Club for Growth. This is an ultra-right-wing group of rich men, who have decided they wanted to spend a lot of money in Republican primaries around the country. For some reason, Alabama’s two open congressional seats in the 1st and 2nd districts attracted these Club for Growth Daddy Warbucks. They wanted to boast that they captured a seat. They bought them one in the 2nd district, but they lost in their attempt to buy the 1st district.
The winner of the 1st district race, the Mobile-Baldwin seat, was won by Jerry Carl. He is a normal pro-business Republican. The right-wing Club for Growth spent over one million dollars trying to elect Carl’s opponent, Bill Hightower. Jerry Carl must be one tough, well thought of Mobilian to overcome that onslaught of money.
In the 2nd district the Club for Growth orchestrated the most amazing comeback upset I have ever seen. Dothan businessman, Jeff Coleman, spent over $2 million of his own money and raised another $2 million from main street conservative groups like Chambers of Commerce and Farmers. This financial advantage propelled Coleman to what looked like a prohibitive lead in the first primary on March 3.
It looked like a cakewalk for Coleman. His opponent was a relatively unknown former state representative named Barry Moore, who barely made it into the runoff. Undoubtedly, the Club for Growth polled the district and saw they could beat Coleman – the mainstream, probusiness Republican. They blindsided him with a million dollars of negative ads and brochures the last three weeks of the campaign.
A million dollars in three weeks in the very inexpensive Montgomery-Dothan media market is insurmountable. Their ads were well designed, vicious, and yes, disingenuous and they worked. The Club for Growth bought themselves a congressional seat. However, they will get very little bang for their buck. Moore will be in Congress two years, then gone. Alabama probably is going to lose a seat to California after this year’s census. In 2022, we will go from seven seats to six. This district likely is the one that will be one on the chopping block. If indeed our 2nd congressional district moves to California, maybe Doug Jones can run for it. His voting record will sell on the left coast.
See you next week.
August 5, 2020 - Tommy Tuberville Ran a Good Disciplined Campaign for Senate
Old political maxims clearly played out true to form in the GOP runoff for our junior U.S. Senate seat on July 14.
Tommy Tuberville ran a very wise and disciplined campaign. He steadily stayed on point and simply said I am going to support Donald Trump. Undoubtedly , when Tuberville decided about a year ago to leave his Florida home and run for the U.S. Senate in Alabama, whoever was advising him knew that the only issue was going to be who could cozy up to Donald J. Trump the most. They gave Tuberville the script and he followed his playbook to perfection. He never deviated and never got distracted by issues, questions, or debates. He simply rode the Donald Trump horse all the way home.
Trump is very popular among Republican voters in the Heart of Dixie. That same horse will more than likely carry Tuberville to victory over Doug Jones in November. Trump will beat Joe Biden 60-40 in the state and Tuberville’s numbers over Jones should be close to that same margin. There will be a lot of straight ticket voting in the Fall. There are more Republican voters than Democratic voters in Alabama.
Therefore, Tuberville’s victory illustrates two cardinal maxims of Alabama politics. Number one is more people vote against someone or something than for someone or something. Trump said he did not like Jeff Sessions and asked Alabama GOP voters to vote against him and they obliged Trump. Secondly, Tuberville kept it simple. He epitomized the old saying, “Keep it simple stupid.” It is called the KISS formula. He stayed on message just like a parrot. He did not have to say much. Trump said it all. It also accrued to Tuberville’s advantage that he was a nonpolitician and Washington outsider. Sessions had sat in this seat in the Senate for 20 years.
Coach Tuberville began the race with some significant name identification. Thus, the third maxim, you must have name identification before you have a chance to win. People are not going to vote for someone they have never of. Tuberville’s name identification numbers were 35% going into the race, which was about as high as Jeff Sessions and a little higher than Bradley Byrne. That is truly a testament to how popular college football is in Alabama.
It had been 10 years since Tuberville had coached at Auburn, but Auburn fans traditionally stick together. I suspect every Auburn football fan in the state voted for Tuberville. It is like one big family. It is not just called the loveliest village on the plains, it is also referred to as the friendliest place you ever visited.
Coincidentally and ironically, Tuberville’s victory is a carbon copy of another Auburn man’s victory for governor 32 years ago. Forrest “Fob” James won the 1978 Governor’s race with the same KISS formula as Tuberville.
Fob James had become wealthy by starting and running a barbell manufacturing company in Opelika. When Fob signed up to run for governor, the press wrote him off as a rich gadfly. Fob quietly used his millions to sign up the most brilliant campaign media strategist in the South, Deloss Walker. Fob was told by Walker never deviate from the script I give you and do not answer any questions.
There were three heavy weights expected to finish first, second and third. Former Governor Albert Brewer, Attorney General Bill Baxley, and Lt. Governor Jere Beasley. As Walker expected, all three spent their time and money beating up on each other while Fob rode a yellow school bus over the state simply saying I am getting back to the basics, reading, writing and arithmetic. Thus, more people vote against someone and the KISS formula.
Walker’s initial polling showed that Fob actually had some name identification from being an Auburn football player in the 1950’s. He was a pretty good halfback. That poll also picked up that Auburn Alumni yearned for an Auburn man to become governor.
In this most recent race, it helped Tuberville immensely that the Alabama Farmers Federation (ALFA) endorsed him early in his quest. This key endorsement gave him credibility and early impetus. Most of the farmers on the endorsement committee by the way are Auburn graduates and Auburn football fans.
The more things change the more they stay the same.
See you next week.
July 29, 2020 - It will be Trump vs Biden in November. Conventions will be anticlimactic.
The presidential race is onward. It will be incumbent Republican Donald Trump vs. former Vice President and 36-year veteran Democrat, Delaware U.S. Senator Joe Biden in the November 3rd General Election.
Both men have clinched their parties’ nomination. Therefore, the Democratic convention, July 31-August 2 and the Republican convention set for August 25-28 will be anticlimactic. It is doubtful that either convention will break any television rating records.
However, there will be one record shattered in this year’s presidential contest. Trump and Biden will be the two oldest presidential contenders in history. Biden is 78 and Trump is 74. Actually, Trump was the oldest person to ever be sworn in as president four-years ago. So if Biden wins he will really break the record at 78.6 years. By the way, the youngest president was John F. Kennedy, who was 43 when he was sworn in as president in January of 1961.
This has already been one of the most unusual presidential election years in American history. The COVID-19 pandemic has turned the world upside down, especially the American economy. The economy is the pivotal issue that decides presidential elections. Prior to the pandemic, the economy was Trump’s trump card. The economic collapse caused by the pandemic was not Trump’s fault but it happened on his watch. There is an old political maxim that says, “If you claim credit for the rain, then you gotta take blame for the drought.”
Trump was not in the lead prior to the pandemic disaster. He is certainly behind the eight ball today. The country is divided like never before in our history. You either live in a red Republican state like Alabama or a blue Democratic state like California. Under the electoral college system of selecting our president, the election is won or lost in the swing states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.
Current polling has Biden ahead in all of these pivotal states. He has double digit leads in Michigan and his birth home of Pennsylvania. It looks like Joe Biden is favored to be the next president at almost 80 years old. Therefore, it is extremely important who he chooses as his running mate to be vice president.
Biden has unequivocally stated that his vice-president will be a female. His choice probably will boil down to California Senator Kamala Harris. Originally, it was between Minnesota Senator, Amy Klobuchar and Senator Kamala Harris.
Senator Klobuchar would have been an excellent choice. She was well qualified and thoroughly vetted. She is Minnesota’s senior senator having represented her native state since 2006. She is very popular in her home state and would probably have brought the swing state of Minnesota into the Democratic column.
However, she withdrew her name for consideration after it became apparent that the Democratic Party base demanded Biden choose a female candidate of color.
Senator Kamala Harris, 55, has had a stellar career. She is very well qualified to be president. She ran an excellent campaign for the Democratic nomination earlier this year and is a U.S. Senator from the largest state in the Union.
She was Attorney General of California prior to being elected to the U.S. Senate from the Golden State. She classifies herself as African-American. Her mother was an Indian/American/Canadian cancer researcher. Her father was a Jamaican born businessman.
By selecting Senator Kamala Harris, Biden chooses a person of non-white ethnicity. African American women are the heart and soul of the Democratic Party and the most reliable Democratic voters. Senator Harris would energize the base. Turnout is the key to any election.
Odds are that if Joe Biden is elected president in November, he will probably be a one-term president. At almost 80, it is doubtful that he would run again in 2024. Therefore, his choice for his running mate and vice president would be favored to be elected president in four years and could become president before then.
There is a tried and true maxim in politics, more people vote against someone than for someone. The Democrats’ plan of attack is for Biden to do nothing, say nothing and let Trump beat himself.
It will be an interesting and important choice for Biden as he or his advisors select his vice-presidential running mate. Again, turnout is the key.
See you next week.
July 22, 2020 - GOP Primary Over, Fall Elections Begin
The field is set for the November General Election and more than likely the races were decided on July 14. We had some good races including the race for our junior U.S. Senate seat as well as two open Congressional seats.
Tommy Tuberville won an impressive 60-40 victory over Jeff Sessions in the GOP primary runoff for U.S. Senate. The tea leaves portend that Tuberville the Republican will defeat the Democrat Doug Jones by that same 60-40 margin. He will win for one reason. He is a solid Republican in a solidly Republican state.
Winning the GOP nomination for a U.S. Senate seat and for that matter any statewide office is tantamount to election in Alabama. We are a very hardcore, safe, red Republican state, especially in a presidential year. It is also a very safe assumption to say that Donald Trump will carry Alabama in the presidential contest, and Trump’s coattails should assure a Tommy Tuberville victory.
The two open Congressional seats in the 1st and 2nd districts are very safely Republican seats. Therefore, the winners Jerry Carl and Barry Moore can start packing for Washington.
A not so subtle participation occurred in our GOP Primaries in Alabama this year. Generally, Republican leaning Political Action Committees, like the Chamber of Commerce, stay out of party primaries and save their ammunition for the General Election battle against Democrats. However, there is a giant that does not play by those rules. This giant is The Club for Growth – a right-wing PAC that promotes Republican candidates that adhere to a free market, free trade, anti-regulation agenda. They also believe and advocate for cutting income taxes and repealing the estate tax. Therefore, as you might guess, the money given to the Club for Growth comes from deep pocketed, very wealthy, very conservative right-wing Americans. They dig deep into their pockets and write big checks primarily to Republican candidates.
As a political observer it is apparent to me that these Big Daddy Warbucks political wannabe players have more money than sense. Anybody with walking around sense knows that anybody elected to a Republican U.S. Senate seat or Republican Congressional seat in Alabama is going to be a conservative pro-business vote in Washington.
Whichever candidate won the 1st District Congressional race was going to vote the same. Yet the Club for Growth spent over $1 million on behalf of Jerry Carl’s opponent. In the 2nd Congressional runoff, the Club for Growth donated over $750,000 on behalf of Barry Moore against Jeff Coleman, either of whom would have voted conservatively or probusiness. In the U.S. Senate first primary race, the Club for Growth spent nearly $700,000 to keep Congressman Bradley Byrne out of the Senate runoff.
This $2.7 million was spent in negative advertisements against their opponents, who again are fellow Republicans who are going to vote identically as the other. They gave their candidates another $300,000 for positive ads. That is $3 million in Alabama.
My question to whoever runs the Club for Growth is, “Do you not think that your money would be put to better use to help Republican U.S. Senate incumbents that are in close reelection contests in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina?” These conservative Republican incumbents are trailing in the polls, as well as behind in fundraising. In short, whoever is calling the shots for the Club for Growth is essentially a political imbecile.
If the Republicans lose the U.S. Senate, then the liberal Democrats will nail those rich idiots’ hides to the wall, and they deserve it. However, Alabama does not deserve it nor can we afford it. If the Republicans lose the majority in the U.S. Senate our crown jewel, Republican Senior Senator Richard Shelby, loses the chairmanship of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and Alabama loses all its power and influence in Washington. You will have a say in that. Currently, national pundits have Doug Jones losing in Alabama to Republican Tommy Tuberville.
However, that is no guarantee. The national Democrats would love to use Doug Jones as a Democratic vehicle to take control of the U.S. Senate and give the chairmanship of the Appropriations Committee to a liberal Democrat. Therefore, philosophy aside, economically a vote for Doug Jones is a vote against Richard Shelby and the State of Alabama.
See you next week.
July 15, 2020 - GOP Senate Race Decided
The much-anticipated battle between former U.S. Senator and U.S. Attorney General, Jeff Sessions and former Auburn football coach, Tommy Tuberville to capture the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate was the marquee event on Tuesday. Unfortunately, my column for this week had to go to press prior to the primary votes being counted.
Polls indicated that Tuberville would win for one reason and one reason only, Donald Trump endorsed him. President Trump is extremely popular among Republican voters in Alabama.
There is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Trump does not like Sessions. Trump has tweeted negative comments about Sessions, not only during this race but consistently for the last three years. Therefore, the message was clear.
Tuberville to his credit ran a very simple campaign and said he is Trump’s man. He never deviated and never delved into the issues. He stayed the course and stuck to the script.
There is a tried and true adage in Alabama politics that more people vote against someone or something than for someone or something. If Sessions lost this race to recapture this Senate seat he held for 20 years, it is because Alabama GOP voters were so enthralled with Donald Trump that they voted against Sessions because Trump asked them to. It certainly was not because Coach Tuberville is more qualified to be our junior U.S. Senator than Jeff Sessions.
It really does not matter which one won. Either one, Tuberville or Sessions will win in November against liberal Democrat Doug Jones. It is almost comical that you have a liberal Democrat who has a three-year voting record of voting straight down the line with the Democratic leadership led by Chuck Schumer, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Nancy Pelosi representing one of the most Republican conservative states in America.
Indeed, Jones is the only Democrat in a U.S. Senate seat from the South. Jones has millions of dollars of left-wing California and New York money in the bank for his fall campaign, as well he should. Californians figure they have stolen our seat and have three senators. He has an identical voting record as the aforementioned liberals, but also identical to California’s two Democratic senators, Kamala Harris and Dianne Feinstein. That is why I refer to Jones as the “California Kid.”
It really does not matter whether Tuberville or Sessions is the one that takes Jones out in November, either one will vote conservatively and straight down the line with the GOP Senate leadership. Both will be older freshman senators and will have very little power. The seniority system prevails in the U.S. Senate and House, which brings me to this point. Why in the world would Donald Trump spend precious time and energy getting involved in a U.S. Senate GOP Primary in Alabama, other than for spiteful vengeance towards a man who simply would not do his bidding and bend the law, his principles, and integrity.
Trump is in a very difficult uphill battle to win a second term as president. He should be focused on campaigning for his own re-election in the five pivotal, battleground states. Under the Electoral College System of selecting our president, these are really the only five to ten states that matter.
We in the Heart of Dixie are irrelevant in the election, as is California. As I have often said, if Mickey Mouse were the Republican nominee, Mickey would carry Alabama. Conversely, if Donald Duck were the Democratic nominee, Donald would carry California.
Folks, the election for president in November will be decided in the states of Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Under the Electoral College numbers, Trump must carry all five of these states. Currently, polling has him losing all five of these states. He is behind by double digits in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
On election night, as his advisors are lamenting a landslide massacre, they may pose this question to the egocentric, brash, New Yorker, “Why on God’s green earth were you campaigning in a Republican U.S. Senate race in Ruby Red Alabama rather than for yourself in the swing state of Florida?”
The media is one of the primary reasons the nation has become so deeply divided along partisan lines. Today, people vote for a party rather than for the individual candidate. You are either in the conservative Republican column or the liberal Democratic corner. CNN and MSNBC, and to a large degree CBS and NBC, are unabashedly the Democratic channels. Whereas FOX News may as well be broadcast from the Republican National Committee headquarters.
See you next week.
July 8, 2020 - Senate and Congressional Runoffs Next Week
Believe or not, coronavirus notwithstanding, we have three important GOP runoffs next Tuesday. You will go back to the polls to elect two Congressmen and a United States Senator. That is assuming that you go vote and are not afraid of germs.
It will be interesting to see how the turnout is on July 14. Mostly older folks, like me, are the ones that vote in all elections and we have been told for four months not to congregate or get around other people. There could be some concern among older voters about getting out and going to the polls. Also, most of the poll workers are retired volunteers.
There is an open Congressional Seat in District 2. Dothan businessman, Jeff Coleman, is the favorite. He garnered close to 40 percent of the vote against a large field of candidates including former Attorney General Troy King, who finished fourth. Former Enterprise State Representative, Barry Moore, finished second with 20 percent and will face Coleman in the runoff next week. This seat is comprised of the Montgomery, Autauga, Elmore River Region area coupled with the Wiregrass. The seat has been held by Montgomery Republican, Martha Roby, for 10 years. She chose not to seek reelection. It is surprising that the two combatants who made the runoff, Jeff Coleman and Barry Moore, hail from the Wiregrass and most of the people are in the River Region.
Coleman has had a substantial campaign dollar advantage over Moore and the entire field running for this open seat. However, Moore has received a $550,000 gift from an innocuous Washington political action committee that has pummeled Coleman with negative ads. This contribution may make this race close.
The 1st District Mobile/Baldwin area seat is also up for grabs, literally. This is the seat open by the departure of Bradley Byrne, who opted to run for the U.S. Senate. The two aspirants who wound up in the runoff, are veteran Mobile County Commissioner and businessman Jerry Carl and former Mobile State Senator Bill Hightower. They finished in a dead heat with Carl getting 39% and Hightower 38% of the vote on March 3. This one will be close and interesting. My guess is that Jerry Carl wins this runoff. He received some late important endorsements in the waning days.
The marquee event will be the GOP runoff for the U.S. Senate between former Senator Jeff Sessions who sat in this seat for 20 years and former Auburn football coach, Tommy Tuberville. This one will also be close. The two conservative gentlemen finished in a virtual tie on March 3.
The winner may be the one who took the best advantage of the three-and-a-half-month hiatus. They each could have and should have simply used the phone to call every single potential Republican voter in the state.
They could have taken a page from the playbook of the most prolific politician in Alabama history, one George C. Wallace. He would keep the telephone glued to his ear. Wallace would constantly call people on the phone 8-10 hours a day. He would call you at all hours of the day and night. Tuberville and Sessions should have used this method of campaigning without getting out of quarantine mode. One-on-one old-fashioned campaigning and asking people for their vote goes a long way in Alabama politics. It always has and it always will. Folks like to be asked for their vote.
Tuberville has outworked Sessions in old fashioned one-on-one campaigning. Although Tuberville is a novice to Alabama geographically and politically, he has traversed the state and met a lot of folks in a grassroots campaign style. He is a very likeable fellow and sells well personally. He did well in the rural areas in the first primary. It helped him immensely, probably more than he realized, with the endorsement and full support of the Alabama Farmers Federation.
If Tuberville wins, he needs to ask for a seat on the Senate Agriculture Committee. We have not had a senator on the Ag Committee since the late Howell Heflin, who was Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. By the way, this seat that Sessions held for 20 years and is running for again and Coach Tuberville is aspiring to, is the seat held by the late Senator Heflin for 18 years.
This runoff has the potential to have a low turnout due to trepidation from older voters and it will be hot as blazes in mid-July.
Y’all vote.
See you next week.
July 1, 2020 - GOP Senate Runoff in Less Than Two Weeks
Folks, we are less than two weeks away from our election contest for our U.S. Senate Seat. The runoff between former Senator Jeff Sessions and former Auburn football coach, Tommy Tuberville may be close and will be interesting.
The two conservatives were in a virtual dead heat in the March 3rd GOP primary. Congressman Bradley Byrne, the Republican U.S. Representative from the 1st District, primarily Mobile and Baldwin counties, finished a strong third.
The runoff was initially set for March 31. However, the coronavirus delayed the runoff until July 14. Therefore, the big question is how did the 15-week delay affect the runoff outcome. It is difficult to say. However, my guess is that it may have been a salvation for Sessions.
Most pundits and polls indicated that Coach Tuberville had the momentum and was set to win the runoff. The over three-month hiatus may have stymied if not thwarted that momentum the same way that football coaches call a timeout when the opposing team is driving toward a winning touchdown. It halts the Big Mo.
Amazingly, the entire campaign has been about Donald Trump and who can cozy up the most to the conservative Republican President. All three frontrunner candidates, Tuberville, Sessions and Byrne made their campaign pitches not about issues but who can be Trump’s buddy or valet.
Sessions and Byrne both had instances where they both had lapses in their obedience to the irrational and irascible Don, so Tuberville’s lack of playing time in the political arena made him the more perceptual slave for Trump.
Coach Tuberville’s entire campaign has been based on his being loyal to Trump. It has paid dividends. He led with 33% to Sessions 32% and Byrnes 25%. Indeed, as soon as the first primary was over in early March, Trump officially endorsed Tuberville. This endorsement propelled Tuberville into a nine-point lead in the polls in mid-March, which is when the pandemic hit and the election was delayed until July 14.
In the meantime, when the national economic virus shutdown subsided somewhat in mid-May, the campaign resumed. Trump again inserted himself into the Alabama GOP Senate race by blasting Sessions again with yet another vitriolic attack. Trump espoused that Sessions had asked him four times to be Attorney General. Finally, Sessions took up for himself and quickly retorted that he never asked Trump for the job.
Folks, I have watched Jeff Sessions’ career as our Junior U.S. Senator for 20 years and prior to that as Alabama’s Attorney General, and I am here to tell you that Jeff Sessions’ truth, veracity, and integrity trumps Trump by a country mile. Honesty, integrity, and truthfulness is not Trump’s forte. However, it has been Sessions’ his entre 30+ years in public service in Alabama.
In fact, Trump owed more to Sessions than naming him Attorney General. When Trump began his quest for the GOP nomination, he was given very little chance. Jeff Sessions’ endorsement as the nation’s most conservative senator gave the bombastic, egocentric New Yorker credibility and gave impetus to his race for the White House.
Actually, I said at the time that Sessions acquiescence to becoming Attorney General was a step down from being a veteran 20-year U.S. Senator and Chairman of the Judiciary Committee in a safe U.S. Senate seat. You can bet your bottom dollar he is now sorry he accepted the post. It is apparent he is not going to get Trump’s endorsement for obvious reasons. He would not break the law or do Trump’s bidding, so Trump hates him.
Trump has reaffirmed his endorsement of Tommy Tuberville. Historically, in Alabama politics, endorsements by one politician in another political race have not been advantageous. In fact, they have been counterproductive. Alabamians have inherently resented endorsements. However, in this case and in this race, my guess is that Trump is so popular among Republican voters in Alabama that his attacks on Sessions and endorsement of Tuberville will propel the coach to victory. In fact, polls show Tuberville with a double-digit lead. He has run a good campaign staying on point and simply saying, I am going to support Donald Trump.
Have a Happy 4th of July.
June 24, 2020 - How Has Coronavirus Affected Alabama Politics?
As we end the first half of 2020, there is no doubt that the coronavirus is the story of the year. The coronavirus saga of 2020 and its devastation of the nation’s and state’s economic well-being may be the story of the decade.
How has the coronavirus affected Alabama politics? The answer is negligibly, if at all. The Republican Primary runoff to hold the Junior U.S. Senate seat was postponed by the virus epidemic. It is set for July 14, which is right around the corner. The race between Tommy Tuberville and Jeff Sessions should be close and interesting.
The virus delay did affect this race in one regard, if the vote had been held on March 31 as planned, Coach Tuberville had the advantage and the momentum. The almost four-month delay may have stymied that train. To what degree we will not know, until the votes are counted in three weeks. Tuberville’s campaign has been totally based on his being loyal to Donald Trump.
Both Sessions and Tuberville were given a golden opportunity to use the four-month hiatus to do some good old fashion one-on-one campaigning, if only by phone. If one of them did it, it could make the difference. We will soon see. People still like to be asked personally for their vote.
The next elections will not be until 2022. It will be a big year. It is a gubernatorial year and there may very well be an open U.S. Senate Seat. Senator Richard Shelby will be 88. It would be a blessing beyond measure if he ran again. However, at that age he may choose to retire. Governor Kay Ivey will be 78 in 2022. She will more than likely not run for a second term.
The one development that has occurred during the virus saga is that Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth, has made it clear that he will be running for governor in 2022. If it were not apparent before, it is obvious now. He inserted himself into the coronavirus episode. In many instances he appeared to usurp the center stage from Governor Ivey.
The young Lt. Governor first urged aggressive public health response, differing from Governor Ivey’s. She made a comment about his out of nowhere position. She then forgave him and gave him a position on one of her many meaningless task force bodies.
Ainsworth then changed courses and tweeted that the state’s businesses should reopen prior to the Governor’s recommended date. She seemed undeterred nor miffed by his second assertion of his policy position. Having been around Alabama politics a lot longer than Ainsworth, she may be savvy enough to know that she is giving him just enough rope to hang himself.
Kay cut her political teeth campaigning for Lurleen Wallace for Governor in 1966. That was 15 years before Ainsworth was born in 1981. I doubt he knows of a similar scenario that played out 50 years ago where a Lt. Governor got too big for his britches and overly and overtly tried to play Governor.
George Wallace had won his second term as Governor in 1970. If you count Lurleen’s 1966 victory, it would be his third straight gubernatorial victory. He was running for President in 1972 and was gunned down by a crazed assassin in a Maryland Parking lot. He was near death from the multiple wounds and had to be hospitalized in Maryland for three to four months. It was a miracle he survived.
Another young Lt. Governor Jere Beasley had been elected to the post in 1970, primarily because the Wallace people had supported him. Beasley seemed to insert himself overtly as governor during Wallace’s bedridden absence. The Governor’s people actually had to fly him back home from his recovery for a day so that he could remain governor.
Folks never seemed to forgive Beasley for this ambitious assertion of power. In his next race for reelection as lieutenant governor, Beasley trailed Charles Woods in the first primary and barely won the runoff. Four years later, in the monumental 1978 Governor’s race – which Fob James ultimately won – Lt. Governor Jere Beasley finished in fifth place, even though he spent lots of money.
Speaking of money, losing the 1978 Governor’s race was the best thing that ever happened to Jere Beasley. He began practicing law in Montgomery and became one of the most prominent Plaintiff lawyers in America. He and his wife, Sarah, have had a much happier and prosperous life out of politics.
See you next week.
June 17, 2020 - Why George Wallace said “No” to U.S. Senate
My next book on Alabama politics will expound on who I believe have been the top 60 political leaders in Alabama over the past 60 years.
More than likely in any political historian’s book George Wallace and Senator Richard Shelby would rank as the top two. The question is, “Who gets the number one spot?”
In my book, Senator Shelby trumps Governor Wallace. Maybe not six years ago, but after Shelby’s current reign as Chairman of the United States Senate Appropriations Committee and what he has brought home to Alabama is simply unparalleled.
Shelby’s remarkable 33 years in the U.S. Senate has been heralded by Chairmanships of the Banking, Intelligence, Rules, and now Appropriations committees. This will never be matched again in Alabama history. Indeed, it would be difficult to find any U.S. Senator in history with that resume.
In short, Shelby’s 33 years in the U.S. Senate capped with his pinnacle of power in the nation’s august body, trumps George Wallace’s 18 years as governor.
However, it is reasonable to bet that nobody will ever be Governor of Alabama for 18 years again. That is quite a feat.
I am often asked the question, “Why did George Wallace not proceed to the U.S. Senate?” Other southern political legends like Huey Long in Louisiana and the Talmadges in Georgia wound up their political lives in the U.S. Senate after being governor of their state.
In most states, the ultimate political prize has been to go to the U. S. Senate and die there. There is an old saying that longtime southern senators will say, “The only way that I’m going to leave the United States Senate is by way of the ballot box or in a pine box.”
Being governor of a state is generally considered a prelude or stepping-stone to a U. S. Senate seat. Not so in Alabama, the governor’s office has always seemed to be the ultimate brass ring.
George Wallace could have gone to the U. S. Senate early in his career. In 1966 he had the golden opportunity. He had fought valiantly in 1965 to get the state senate to change the law that precluded a governor from succeeding himself. With that door closed, the obvious route for any politician would be to go to the Senate.
In 1966 Wallace was at the top of his game. He was at the height of his popularity. Race was the paramount and only issue. He owned the issue. He owned the State of Alabama politically. He was the King of Alabama politics, and there was a senate seat up for election.
The venerable John Sparkman was up for election. He was powerful and he was popular but he was no match for George Wallace and he was considered soft on the race issue. Wallace would have easily beaten Sparkman and gone to the Senate. He chose instead to run his wife for governor. Lurleen Wallace trounced the illustrious field of candidates.
After Wallace was shot in his presidential bid in 1972, he survived but he was mortally wounded and left a paraplegic for the rest of his life. His health was ruined and he was relegated to constant pain and confined to a wheelchair.
In 1978 Alabama had not only one, but also both senate seats vacant. Wallace was ending his third term as governor and had no where to go politically. It was obvious that Wallace should take one of the open seats. It was his for the asking. His close personal aide and friend, Elvin Stanton, related the scenario to me. Stanton said that Wallace was going to run, but at the last minute, he told Elvin, “Let’s go to Washington and look around.” They went together to the Capitol and surveyed the terrain.
It occurred to Wallace that his life would be difficult at best maneuvering the steps and corridors of the Capitol. He just did not want to leave Alabama. He wanted to be near his doctors. He wanted to die in Alabama, not Washington. I suspect in the back of Wallace’s mind he thought that he might run one more time for governor in 1982. He did and he won.
Wallace would have won a Senate seat in 1978 and he would have won one earlier in 1966. The bottom line is George Wallace just did not want to be a United States Senator. He liked being Governor of Alabama.
See you next week.
June 10, 2020 - Senate Runoff Resumes with Trump and Sessions in a Twitter Battle
The U.S. Senate runoff between former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville and former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions was put on hold by the coronavirus. The original primary on March 3 had Tuberville and Sessions in a dead heat. The runoff was scheduled for March 31. However, the pandemic shutdown placed a freeze on everything politically. The runoff is now set for July 14.
The epidemic hiatus shutdown began to melt a little around Memorial Day, and it started with a meltdown between President Donald Trump and Jeff Sessions. Trump, our tweeting President, blasted Sessions for the umpteenth time for recusing himself from the Russian politically based probe while he was Attorney General. Sessions, being the honest person that he is, refused to do Trump’s bidding which would have been illegal.
Legality, honesty, truthfulness, and integrity are not Trumps forte. He thinks his tenure as President is an extension of his TV Reality show, The Apprentice, where he was famously known for the phrase “You’re fired!” He fires anyone associated with him who will not concede to this egocentric bullying, the same way he fired Sessions for not breaking the law.
Trump’s tirade of tweets on Memorial Day weekend were vitriolic and juvenile, as is customary for the king of late-night tweeting. Much to folks’ surprise, Sessions tweeted back. The mild mannered, choir boy, Eagle Scout Sessions fought back for the first time. He and Trump exchanged tweeting volleys all weekend. It was quite amusing.
It remains to be seen what effect this war of words between Trump and Sessions will have on the Senate campaign and Sessions’ hopes to reclaim his seat. Sessions may not have been the most effective U.S. Senator during his 20-year tenure, but he probably was the most honest. If it were midnight in the smallest town in Alabama and there were no cars in sight, Jeff Sessions would not jaywalk.
In every tweet, Trump endorses Coach Tuberville over Sessions for obvious reasons. Historically, in Alabama politics, one politician endorsing someone in another race has been the kiss of death. It has consistently backfired. However, my guess is that Trump is so popular among hardcore Republican voters in the Heart of Dixie that this endorsement of Tuberville will propel him to victory. Tuberville’s entire campaign calling card has been, “I’m a Trump man.” Trump applauds total allegiance and loyalty. Therefore, the Trump endorsement of the Coach is quite understandable.
Whichever one wins will take back the seat for the GOP in the Fall. However, they are going to face some devastating financial problems when they arrive as a freshman U.S. Senator in January. The coronavirus epidemic has crippled our nation economically for decades. Either Tuberville or Sessions will be irrelevant, freshman Senators who will be saddled with a government that is facing a staggering national debt.
The U.S. government has written $3 trillion in bad checks with no money in the bank to pay the insurmountable debt back. We had an enormous deficit even before the trillions of dollars added by printing of red ink federal dollars for the pandemic bailout. A trillion dollars is a lot of money. That is trillion with a capital “T.” It reminds me of one of the great quotes of all time. The late, great Republican, U.S. Senator from Illinois, Senator Everett Dirkson, was attributed with saying after the passage of a pork filled Democratic budget, “A billion here and a billion there and pretty soon you are talking real money.”
Henry Kissinger in a “Wall Street Journal” article called this unprecedented, unimaginable U.S. national debt a fundamental realignment where we are so weakened by this debt that we lose influence and power in the world. I am optimistic that we can persevere for three reasons: our farming, our military, and our technological superiority.
See you next week.