April 20, 2016
Some of you may have seen and remember the movie, Groundhog Day, starring Bill Murray. In the comedy, Murray awakens on Groundhog Day and has the identical day that he had the previous year, similar to Yogi Berra’s colloquial saying of “déjà vu all over again.” Well folks, this year’s legislative session began on Groundhog Day and it is déjà vu all over again. It is like it is last year again.
Similar to the way realtors say, “it is location, location, location,” with Alabama government it is the General Fund, General Fund, General Fund. Several legislators optimistically predicted that they would have the budgets out by the middle of the session.
In budget hearings, General Fund agencies requested $250 million more than the current $1.7 billion in this year’s budget and as is usually the case there has been no revenue growth. Last year Gov. Robert Bentley offered a $540 million tax increase package for the General Fund. Lawmakers systematically rebuked his proposal. It took three sessions for the legislature to finally pass a budget. However, it failed to address long term budget needs.
The 800-pound gorilla in the room is Medicaid. It is a money eating monster, which eats up all the General Fund money. Almost 20% of all Alabamians are on Medicaid. It provides healthcare for nearly one million low income Alabamians, most of them children. The problem is that if you cut state funding to Medicaid, you lose a gigantic match of federal dollars. For example, if you cut state Medicaid funding by $100 million, which the legislature is proposing, it will result in a loss of $1 billion in federal funds.
The legislature balanced the General Fund budget last year by transferring $80 million from Education dollars, which may be unconstitutional. Gov. Bentley is proposing the same remedy this year. However, he would like to see $180 million taken away from funds earmarked by the constitution for Education.
The idea of balancing the budget with Education’s money has received a cool reception from the legislative leadership. After the Governor’s State of the State address on February 2, Senate President Pro Tem Del Marsh (R-Anniston) said, “I would be surprised to see those dollars come from education.”
In his annual speech to the legislature, Gov. Bentley offered a myriad of proposals without any thoughts or ideas on how to pay for them. In his platitudes he especially heralded proposals to help improve healthcare access. However, expansion of Medicaid was conspicuously missing. Despite recommendations from his own task force to implement Medicaid expansion, it was never mentioned in his hour long speech to the legislature.
This is a sore subject with Democrats in the House and Senate. Democrats make up about 30% of the legislature. They are adamant about expanding Medicaid. They argue that the state is losing out on billions of federal dollars from Washington. They have a vocal ally in Dr. David Bronner, who vehemently says it is foolish to not take advantage of this federal windfall.
Bentley is hanging his hat on the implementation of Regional Care Organizations (RCO’s). RCO’s would shift from a fee for service model to one that allocates money based on health care outcomes. Bentley hopes this move will encourage more preventative care and less hospital use, hopefully slowing the growth of costs in the program.
Speaking of Bentley, at a time when the General Fund is broke, he chose to give all his Cabinet members huge raises. Four Cabinet members alone were given raises of $73,400 per year thus increasing their salaries from $91,000 to $164,400. By the way, regular state employees have not seen a raise in eight years and have actually lost take home pay with increased costs of their health insurance. This did not sit well with the legislature. They immediately cut the governor’s personal budget by $330,000.
The legislature had not only rendered Bentley irrelevant in the budgetary process, they have begun to treat him with disdain. This latest rebuke appears as though they look upon him like a petulant child.
See you next week.
April 13, 2016
There appears to be very little interest in promoting an effort to impeach Governor Robert Bentley.
With very few legislative days left in the session, legislators have a myriad of problems to deal with, not the least of which are the budgets, especially the General Fund. The financial woes surrounding the General Fund cloud the horizon and justly require more attention than the circus of an impeachment charade.
In this day of wiretapping, videophones, “burner” phones and loose tongues, most legislators do not want to risk the chance that Bentley could have them on the phone with their paramour. In addition, it would be the height of hypocrisy to have the Speaker of the House preside over an impeachment proceeding with a pending trial awaiting him in less than 30 days on 23 ethics law indictments.
It was obvious from the get go that the impeachment idea would get very little traction given the sponsor of the measure. Representative Ed Henry, a first term backbencher from Hartselle, is considered somewhat of a nut with a penchant for grandstanding. His colleagues in the House consider him a joke and refer to him as “Headline Henry.” It is common knowledge that Speaker Hubbard and the House leadership have relegated Henry to the backbench. They do not even recognize him when he seeks to speak. It would be hard for him to pass a resolution honoring apple pie and motherhood, much less pass a bill.
Furthermore, very few House or Senate members want to substitute Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey for Bentley. At least they know what they have in Bentley. They can push him around and basically ignore him. He has been relegated to a benign punch line. He can serve out his next two years cutting ribbons. However, they are not sure about a new lame duck.
Kay Ivey would have very little power, but she could be a loose cannon. Based on reliable sources the Poarch Creek Indians are clearly one of the driving forces behind the effort to have Gov. Robert Bentley impeached. The Poarch Creek Indians clearly would like to see Kay Ivey as Governor for a number of reasons, but primarily to protect their non-taxed monopoly of casino gambling in the state.
The Indian casinos are gearing up for the 2018 elections. However, legislators and gubernatorial aspirants clearly perceive that Alabamians are disenchanted with the “so called Indian Gambling” monopoly. The Indian money may be an albatross to any potential candidates.
This distrust and disdain for the Indian casinos could be the political death for Attorney General Luther Strange. It is well known that Big Luther plans to run for governor in 2018. It is also rumored that Luther will be the Indian casinos’ horse. If that is the case it is very difficult to hide their money under the new campaign finance laws. They are also so arrogant that they pompously, like lizards, want to show their money. This could be the kiss of death for Luther.
On another front, it has gone under the radar with all the Bentley and Hubbard scandals, but the U.S. Attorney in the Middle District of Alabama has stepped into the ring of the casino gambling circus. He may become the ringmaster under the tent.
It should be known by most 9th grade civics students and hopefully by now our Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore, that the federal courts trump the state courts every day of the week. U.S. Attorney George Beck, a very well-respected man and attorney, has weighed in on what he calls an obvious discriminating enforcement of laws by the state.
In a March 21st letter to Luther Strange, Beck adamantly calls out the attorney general for flagrantly giving different and inequitable treatment to the Indians. He clearly asks the attorney general to clarify his position on the matter concerning the Indian casinos and Alabama casinos, especially VictoryLand. Beck focuses on the memorandums of understanding (MOUs) that Attorney General Strange forced the vendors at VictoryLand to sign, which have prevented VictoryLand from reopening.
We could have Gov. Robert Bentley, Speaker Mike Hubbard and Attorney General Luther Strange all in hot water at the same time.
See you next week.
April 06, 2016
In early 2009, Dr. Robert Bentley came to see me about his race for Governor of Alabama. Bentley was finishing his second term in the Alabama House of Representatives and closing down his very successful dermatology practice in Tuscaloosa.
I liked Bentley immediately and thought it was magnanimous that he would want to spend his retirement years as Governor. I did not give him much of a chance and predicted he would run a respectable third in the race. However, he surprised everybody, probably even himself.
I offered Bentley the opportunity to appear with me on my 30 minute Public Television show, “Alabama Politics.” He gladly accepted and arrived with only his wife, Diane. The two of them were traveling the state together with Diane driving him. After his victory, Bentley returned to the show as Governor with the usual entourage of staffers and troopers. One of the staffers was Rebekah Mason.
Dr. Bentley is a good man. He did an exemplary job his first four years as governor; although he inexplicably had a dismal track record with the Legislature. Even though they all were Republicans, the House and Senate treated him with complete disdain. Therefore, his first term lacked success as far as initiatives. Even still, Bentley remained extremely popular with the voters and was overwhelmingly reelected in 2014.
During Bentley’s first term, he stayed in touch and thanked me for favorable columns, but I heard very little from him during the 2014 campaign year. In January of 2015, when I sat down for an annual visit with a contemporary of mine, who is the most astute political guru in the state, I casually mentioned to my friend that I had not heard from the Governor all year. The gentleman, who by the way was an integral part of planning the governor’s inauguration replied, “Steve, nobody has.”
He privately told me that the Governor at 72 had fallen head-over-heels in love with his 45 year old girlfriend, Rebekah Mason, and was spending every waking hour with her. He further informed me that it was uncertain whether Bentley’s wife or four sons were going to attend the Inauguration. Mrs. Bentley was so fed up with his affair that she only acquiesced a few hours before the event.
Ironically, a week later I was standing in the Rotunda of the Capital after Governor Bentley’s State of the State speech and Rebekah Mason came up to me and said, “Steve, the Governor really appreciates the power of your pen and the first thing we do every Wednesday morning is I read your column to him.” I didn’t quite know what to say or take from the comment.
Well, as you know, Mrs. Bentley filed for divorce late last year. It was assumed that the dissolution of the 50 year marriage was over a romantic interlude, but the divorce was quickly settled and sealed. Dr. Bentley agreed to a 50 percent settlement with the agreement that there would be no comment about the divorce or peripheral reasons.
Surprisingly, the divorce and rumored relationship seemed to dissipate as an issue. The mainstream media left it alone. In the meantime, Mrs. Mason took on a significant role as the governor’s advisor and it appeared to all involved that she was the governor. Her overt, forthright and offensive approach in all important meetings with the governor further alienated Bentley from the legislative leadership.
A number of Bentley’s cabinet members are his former legislative buddies. His best legislative companion was Spencer Collier, who he made head of the ALEA. You know the rest of the story. When Bentley fired Collier he fired back. That gave the media the door they needed to open the Rebekah Mason can of worms. It is suspected that the salacious tapes were leaked to Collier by Ms. Bentley or a son.
The bottom line is Dr. Bentley has quietly fallen in love in his 70’s like a school boy although he looks like the least likely person in the world to have an affair. He has paid a heavy price for his transgression. He has lost half his life savings and is estranged from his wife of 50 years and his four sons.
However, Bentley has done nothing illegal that should prevent him from serving out the remainder of his term as Governor. Impeachment proceedings will go nowhere nor should they. The leadership in the House and Senate cannot withstand the same scrutiny. The Biblical admonition that Jesus evoked, “To those who are without sin cast the first stone,” applies to those who would castigate Bentley. There is also a more secular version of Jesus teachings, “Those who live in glass houses should not cast stones.”
See you next week.
March 30, 2016
This has been an exciting election year when it comes to presidential politics. It has been an extraordinarily unusual and unpredictable presidential contest to say the least, especially on the Republican side.
The GOP race began with an extraordinarily large field. There were 17 candidates as the race began, all with exceptional credentials. The one with the least experience and political resume is the one left standing. One Donald J. Trump has been the story of the year.
As we head into the last three months leading up to the nominating convention, conventional wisdom has Donald Trump being the Republican nominee and Hillary Clinton being the Democratic nominee. If that indeed is the case, you will have two brash New Yorkers pitted against each other with the probability of a Titanic colorful dual headed into the fall campaign. It will be a fun show to watch. It will not be lacking for controversy, acrimony and entertainment.
We will have been an important part of the nominating process here in the Heart of Dixie. On Super Tuesday we were a part of the nationwide momentum that probably propelled Trump and Clinton to their parties’ respective nominations. We seem to be lockstep with the rest of the country as we have joined the Trump and Clinton trains.
In the past several presidential election cycles we in the south have been different than the rest of the country, particularly on the GOP ledger. We have sided with the evangelical candidate in the race. Not so this year. We here in Alabama, as well as all of our sister southern states, chose Trump in a resounding fashion.
Donald Trump, a less than humble, very worldly, casino owner and developer, won every Alabama county garnering 44% of the vote and collecting 36 of Alabama’s 50 delegates to the GOP convention. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, the avowed evangelical candidate, was a distant second with 21% of the vote and will be allotted 13 delegates. Marco Rubio was third with 17%. Ben Carson got 10% and Governor Bentley’s choice, Ohio Governor John Kasich, received 4%.
Trump’s campaign brought out a record turnout on primary election day, as well as a record-breaking crowd in Madison/Huntsville the Sunday before the primaries. There were an estimated 25,000 people in attendance in Madison County, where our popular Junior U.S. Senator Jeff Sessions endorsed Trump. He had over 30,000 fans show up in Mobile when he first began his campaign last year. There have not been crowds that large in Alabama politics since the Wallace era.
There were 60% more people voting in our Republican primary than in 2008 and 40% more than 2012. These 865,000 Republican votes cast in our GOP primary - a record turnout - were primarily due to the fervor of the Trump campaign.
Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton beat socialist Bernie Sanders 80% to 20% due largely to a 90% support from Alabama's African-American voters. There were 382,000 Democratic voters on March 1.
Our Senior U.S. Senator Richard Shelby won the Republican nomination to an unprecedented 6th six-year term with a very impressive victory. Shelby received 65% of the vote against four opponents. All four were political novices. However, getting 65% with four challengers is very strong.
Four incumbent Republican Congress people, who were challenged in the primary, won overwhelmingly. U.S. Representatives Robert Aderholt in the 4th, Mike Rogers in the 3rd, Martha Roby in the 2nd, and Bradley Byrne in the 1st districts, won big. Martha Roby and Bradley Byrne were challenged by extreme right wing candidates but prevailed impressively.
PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh defeated challenger Terry Dunn by a 63 to 37 margin. She will continue at the helm of the three-member utility regulating panel.
Longtime state school board members Stephanie Bell and Ella Bell, both of Montgomery, won reelection.
Shelby County approved Sunday liquor sales by at 4 to 1 margin and two of the last dry counties in the state, Clay and Chilton, went wet. These two referendums portend how overwhelmingly Alabamians would vote in favor of the lottery/casino deal if allowed to vote on this issue.
See you next week.
March 23, 2016
In the literary classic, “The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire,” the author draws parallels to a nation that was on top of the world and because of perverse, grandiose and pompous behavior that dynasty self-destructed and destroyed itself. It was from reading this documentary that the Russian premier Khrushchev believed that we, the United States, would destroy ourselves thus causing him to brashly declare, “We will bury you.”
One of the travails of Rome, as illustrated in the book, was the power and arrogance of the Roman Senate. Roman Senators were given immense power and prestige and allowed to live lavishly at the public’s expense. They, with the concurrence of Caesar, were allowed to control the Roman purse strings and thus dispensed the public funds generously among themselves. They lived a royal life with lavish luxuries and opulence generally reserved for royalty. It led to a life of comfort and debauchery that Solomon warned about in Proverbs, “pride goeth before a fall.”
Many people believe that members of congress today are following this pattern. Maybe not to the same extreme as the Romans, but in some ways similar. U.S. Congressmen vote on their own annual salary increases, which are now up to $175,000 annually with a health plan that would be the envy of any corporate employee and could not be afforded by a corporation yet it cost the congressman nothing. Many congressmen will argue that $175,000 per year is not exorbitant considering that they must maintain a residence in their home state and in Washington. This argument does not seem to hold water with the average American who earns less than 20 percent of that salary.
Congressmen do not have much of a challenge in getting reelected. No matter how good a job they do for their constituents the advantage of incumbency gives 97% of all congressman another term if they choose. However, unlike Roman senators, their power has diminished significantly because of the partisan divide in Washington. Today, congressmen simply vote their party line, making them like members of British Parliament. They are no longer individuals but pawns of their party. They are members in the process and fall in line with party dogma and dictates, losing much of their individualism and, in the process, their power.
Even though one Alabama congressman or congresswoman represents approximately 635,000 Alabamians and an Alabama state senator represents around 130,000 Alabamians, I would argue that a least a dozen state senators have more impact over public policy than any of our seven congressmen. There are 435 members of Congress and 35 members of the Alabama Senate. If a state senator is well placed and in a position of power, they are unquestionably more influential and powerful than a congressperson.
The only exception in our delegation would be Congressman Robert Aderholt. Of our seven members of the U.S. Congress, Aderholt is the only one with any seniority or clout. He is on track to be as powerful one day as his predecessor Democrat Tom Bevill. Aderholt got to Congress at a very young age and he is on the right committees and on the right track.
A couple of years ago, Congressman Jo Bonner left the Mobile/Baldwin first district of congress. A medley of candidates emerged. State Senator Trip Pittman of Baldwin County could have possibly won that seat. But guess what? Sen. Pittman chairs the Senate Finance and Taxation Committee. He would have become much less powerful as a freshman member of congress than controlling the state budget.
In 2010, State Senators Dick Brewbaker of Pike Road, Harri Ann Smith of Slocomb, or Jimmy Holley of Elba could have captured the GOP nomination for congress in the 2nd District and ultimately gone to Congress. However, all three, especially Holley, have much more influence as one of 35 State Senators than as a back bench member of Congress.
In many cases a state senator is more powerful than a congressman.
See you next week.
March 16, 2016
A good friend and loyal reader suggested to me that he would like to see a column entitled, “Where Are They Now?” Then I ran into former Gov. Albert Brewer at a Birmingham restaurant and it prompted me to do that column.
Gov. Brewer has always been admired by Alabamians as one of the finest people to have ever served in state government. I got to know Gov. Brewer when I was a young page in the Alabama House of Representatives and Brewer was a youthful Speaker of the House. In fact, he has the distinction of being the youngest Speaker in state history. He was elected to the House from Morgan County at 28 and became Speaker during only his second term at age 33.
In 1966, he was elected lieutenant governor. While serving as lieutenant governor, Lurleen Wallace succumbed to cancer and Brewer became governor in 1968. He ran for a full term in 1970. In the most memorable and momentous governor’s race in history, Brewer and George Wallace clashed. He led Wallace in the initial voting but Wallace overtly played the race card and overcame Brewer in the runoff to become governor again. Brewer made another run for governor in 1978 but Fob James came out of nowhere to defeat the three B’s, Bill Baxley, Jere Beasley and Albert Brewer.
Since leaving politics, Gov. Brewer returned to the practice of law then began teaching at Samford’s Cumberland School of Law, where he has counseled and mentored students and young lawyers, including my daughter Ginny, for more than 20 years. Gov. Brewer has remained active in governing in Alabama through the Public Affairs Research Council. At 87, he is in good health and enjoys his life in Birmingham.
Another former governor, John Patterson, is 94. He lives on his ancestral land in Goldville in rural Tallapoosa County. Patterson has the distinction of being the only man to beat George Wallace in a governor’s race. Wallace was a fiery circuit judge from Barbour County and Patterson was a squeaky clean law and order segregationist young attorney general. Patterson beat Wallace soundly in that 1954 race and became the youngest governor in state history. He was only 33 years old when he took office as governor in January of 1955. He was dubbed the “boy governor.”
Patterson was later appointed and then elected to the Alabama Court of Appeals and served with distinction as a jurist for over 20 years. He is enjoying is golden years on his farm and has a pet goat named Rebecca, who came to his house out of the blue and took up with him. Rebecca follows Patterson wherever he goes. She watches him intensely and animatedly seems to engage in conversation.
Former Gov. Fob James is enjoying his retirement years at his Butler County farm and at Orange Beach. Fob actually retired about 40 years ago at age 40 when he and his brother, Cal, sold their Opelika industry, Diversified Products. Fob chose to spend his personal money to surprise Baxley, Beasley and Brewer in 1978 to win the governor’s race in one of the most notable gubernatorial contests in state political history. Fob was elected governor again in 1994. He is the only person in state history to win the governor’s race first as a Democrat then as a Republican.
Bill Baxley was elected Attorney General of Alabama in 1970 at age 28. He became not only the youngest person elected attorney general in Alabama history but he was the youngest state attorney general in the nation’s history. Baxley served two terms as attorney general from 1970-1978, then came back as lieutenant governor from 1982-1986. Baxley has a successful law practice in Birmingham and is doing well at age 75.
At age 66, Jim Folsom, Jr. is the youngest former governor. He and Marsha live in their native Cullman. They both look great, as always, and are enjoying their life.
Perry Hooper Sr., who was one of the founders of the modern Republican Party in Alabama, is 90. He is retired and living in his beloved Montgomery. He became probate judge of Montgomery County with the 1964 Goldwater Republican landslide. He later became the first Republican Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court and paved the way for our current day all Republican Supreme Court.
See you next week.
March 09, 2016
One of the finest men to ever serve in Alabama government is Albert Brewer. He is one of the most quality and highest caliber individuals to ever rise to the Governor’s office.
Brewer hailed from Morgan County in the heart of the Tennessee Valley. He was first elected to the legislature from Decatur in 1958 at the very young age of 28. He was identified early as a rising star. In fact, his star was meteoric. During his second term in 1962, he was elected Speaker of the House at age 32. An unheard of feat.
Besides being on a political fast track by the time he was in mid-30s, Brewer was also considered one of the best attorneys in Decatur. He is a kind, considerate, and genuinely sincere man with the most pleasant and contagious smile and countenance. Once you meet Albert Brewer you immediately warm up to him and like him. His smile and disposition can melt the most hardened enemy.
Gov. Brewer became especially dear to me. When I first met Gov. Brewer, I was a 12-year-old page from Troy and Brewer was Speaker of the House. My mentor and sponsor was my representative from Troy, Mr. Gardner Bassett. Mr. Gardner was in his 70s and he loved Brewer. Since Mr. Gardner and I were close, he got me acquainted with the young Speaker from Morgan County. Brewer graciously took me under his wing and would let me run special errands for him. Occasionally he even let me sit next to him in the presiding officer’s chair. This pleased Mr. Gardner because he had told Brewer of my love of politics and that when Mr. Gardner retired that I would run for and take his house seat and that is eventually what happened.
Therefore, it was no secret to Brewer that I aspired to get into politics and eventually run for the legislature. He and Mr. Gardner would share legislative stories and history with me. When Brewer became Lieutenant Governor in 1966, he took me over to the Senate with him to be head of the Pages. This allowed me to work in the legislature during the summer while growing up.
One day, Brewer said I want to tell you a campaign secret. He began his lesson by explaining that when you get ready to run for the legislature you should start your campaign in the country. He then explained why. It was based on the old bandwagon theory. He said people in the rural towns and hamlets have more time on their hands. They like politics better than their neighbors in the city, they talk more, they appreciate your interest more and they want to be asked for their vote. Therefore, if you work the rural community first, they talk about you being there and they will commit to you early. At that time, if a person in a rural area told you they were going to vote for you, you could take that to the bank. Therefore, if you got there first, you could wrap up that area early and forever.
Another big plus of working the country first was that whenever any person from that rural box came into the larger town or county seat to shop or get their haircut and the city folks asked about politics out their way, the rural man would say, “I don't know about the other races but that Brewer boy is going to get all the votes up here for that open Legislative seat.” Then the bandwagon domino theory was on. The city folks assumed that if all the country folks were for someone that candidate was bound to win in a landslide so they better get on board too. That was a good lesson. I took Gov. Brewer’s advice in my first race and I got 82% of the vote over two opponents.
By the way, Governor Brewer is doing well today. After years as a successful practicing attorney, he went on to become a professor at Samford University’s Cumberland School of Law. My daughter had the opportunity to get to know the Governor while she was in law school at Cumberland. She took several classes he taught, worked with him on the Alabama Constitutional Law Project, and still looks to him as a mentor. Gov. Brewer still has that endearing warm smile and personality. He is a prince of a fellow.
See you next week.
March 02, 2016
You know the outcome of our presidential preference primary yesterday. I do too, today; however, this column had to go to press a few days prior to the primary. Therefore, I will have to report and analyze your voting in a later column.
One thing I do know is that we had a lot more attention paid to us in the Heart of Dixie because we had an early primary. The legislature is to be applauded for moving us up to participate in the March 1st SEC primary.
It was fun while it lasted but we can say goodbye to presidential candidates in the Heart of Dixie for the remainder of the campaign. Whoever wins the GOP nomination will have to concentrate on the 10 battleground states during the fall.
Under our Electoral College system of selecting a president, we do not elect a president by a direct vote whereby the presidential candidate who gets the most votes nationwide is elected president. The votes in each of the 50 states are tallied and the candidate who carries each state gets all of that states electoral votes.
Let us use Alabama as an example. We have seven Congressional seats and two U.S. Senate seats. Therefore, we have nine electoral votes. California, the largest state in the union, has 55 electoral votes. They amazingly have 53 Congressional seats, which means they have nearly eight times as many people in the Golden State as we do in Alabama.
The bottom line is that the Electoral College system favors the larger states, which tend to be liberal and Democratic. This system also gives inordinate importance to states that are demographically blended to make them swing states. They are unpredictable and can swing to the Democratic or GOP candidate in the presidential race. The other 40 states essentially become irrelevant. We in Alabama are going to reliably vote for the Republican nominee even if it is Donald Duck. California is going to vote for the Democratic candidate even if it is Mickey Mouse.
Therefore, simple math tells you that if the larger states like California and New York are going to vote for the liberal Democratic candidate and smaller states like Alabama and Kansas are going to vote for the conservative Republican candidate, then the advantage goes to the Democrat. You might say that the hay is already in the barn in about 40 states, us included.
Because the Electoral College favors a liberal Democrat, Hillary Clinton will more than likely be our next president. A Republican almost has to have a straight flush in all 10 swing states and must carry Florida and Ohio, the two king key swing states.
Less you feel cheated, our forefathers appear almost clairvoyant with their foresight in evening the playing field between the small and large states. We have an inherent inordinate advantage in the U.S. Senate. We have two U.S. Senators and California has two U.S. Senators, even though each of their senators has eight times as many constituents as ours. So before you complain, put yourself in the shoes of a Californian. Their vote does not count in a presidential race and they have about as much representation in the U.S. Senate as a cow in Montana.
However, our constitutional fathers left them one bastion of power. The U.S. House of Representatives calls for each congressional district throughout the country to have the same number of people. Everybody counts the same. Therefore, an assumption can be made that presidential politics favors a Democrat and the U.S. Senate favors the Republican Party.
Thus, the battleground is the U.S. House of Representatives. Political analysts suggest that the 58 seat Republican control of Congress will continue into the future. That is because of projected population shifts to mostly red states in the south and west and Republican dominance of state legislatures, which draw congressional district maps in most states. This Republican control of state legislatures, which not only occurred in Alabama but throughout the country, gave the omnipotent power of the pencil to the GOP. When liberal Democrats drew the line they created coalition districts of different liberal groups – blacks, Hispanics and progressive whites. The demographic changes occurring in the country favor a Democratic president, but the urbanization of the Democratic ranks has hurt their chances of regaining the U.S. House.
This scenario has entrenched the Republican control of Congress. There are packed districts that are very red Republican conservative seats and very blue liberal Democratic seats and very few moderate lawmakers on Capitol Hill. This is also a recipe for gridlock.
See you next week.
February 24, 2016
As our primary selection day approaches, it appears that we are seeing significant campaign attention from the presidential candidates. The move by the legislature to make us an early primary state was a good one.
As is generally the case, we are seeing negative ads. That is not unusual in politics. The reason that they are employed is because they work. Otherwise, the media consultants would not use them. Therefore, this is not a different approach. However, the unique factor in this year’s presidential contest is who is paying for the ads.
The disparaging attacks are being paid for by Super PACs and not directly by the candidates’ campaigns. These shadow campaign organizations have been created by a federal campaign loophole. They allow a candidate to organize a PAC with an innocuous name that allows them to circumvent the federal campaign contribution threshold and spend unlimited amounts of money. These Super PACs are created to allow wealthy individual contributors to write very big checks. Thus, in essence it allows the super-rich to control the Super PACs and have a super-size say on who sits in the oval office.
These Super PACs created for deep pocketed supporters are supposed to operate separately from campaigns but in this presidential contest the lines have become very blurred. The rules on what amounts to coordination have been so narrowly defined that Super PACs and candidates’ campaigns appear to be one in the same.
Federal Election Commission records reveal a good amount of correlation. Super PACs are paying staffers before they shift to campaign payrolls and individuals and groups are writing checks to the same vendors. Super PACs and other outside organizations have sponsored nine of every ten political ads aired this year.
Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman, John Podesta, has appeared at fundraisers for a pro-Clinton Super PAC called Priorities USA Action. It is well documented that GOP candidate, Jeb Bush, delayed his presidential announcement by several months to allow his Super PAC, Right to Rise, to raise money. Right to Rise raised $103 million for Bush, while the Jeb Bush official campaign collected $11 million.
Last year’s surprise announcement by GOP House Speaker John Boehner to resign gave rise to the selection of a new speaker. Paul Ryan the 45-year-old Wisconsin Congressman, who was a former vice presidential candidate, appears to be a good choice. Ryan comes across as sincere and well intentioned. He comes across as direct, confident but not cocky or abrasive. He strikes you as someone who is doing the job for the right reasons. He obviously is living within his means on his congressional salary. He sleeps in his office rather than opting for an apartment or swanky Georgetown residence.
For years it was thought that being a governor was not only the best training ground for president but also the best stepping stone. That has not been the case this year. In a record size Republican field the first two horses to fade and fail were Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Texas Governor Rick Perry.
It has instead been a year for outsiders. The GOP field has been led by completely inexperienced political novices. Celebrity billionaire Donald Trump, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and former CEO Carly Fiorina have stolen the show. These three political newcomers have never won an election or even run for public office.
It appears that Donald Trump is poised to carry Alabama next week. He leads overwhelmingly in the polls and has garnered a good cadre of political face cards who have rallied to the frontrunner. Perry Hooper, Jr., a well-known establishment Republican figure, heads his campaign. Hooper is joined by State Representatives Jim Carnes, Tim Wadsworth, Ed Henry, and Barry Moore.
It will be interesting to see the outcome. Many national political experts predict that Trump may falter prior to the GOP nomination convention. They believe that at the end of the day the 2016 Republican nominee will be someone who actually has held office. Conventional prognosticators predict that Florida Senator Marco Rubio or Texas Senator Ted Cruz will ultimately be the nominee. We will see.
See you next week.
February 17, 2016
The presidential primary parade has been colorful and fun to watch this year. It has been even more amusing because of the pervasive presence of one Donald Trump and the fact that those of us in the Heart of Dixie have a front row seat to the show.
Since we will have an early vote in the presidential fray, due to our being one of the seven southeastern states having our preference primary on March 1, we are able to participate. We will be voting for president in less than two weeks.
Over the past few weeks I’ve been asked on TV and radio interviews if the inevitable nominees will be Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. I would not use the word inevitable yet, but I would say they are the clear favorites.
Early on I thought that Donald Trump was a fad that would fade. However, folks he has been the frontrunner for about seven months now. He is for real and he is poised to carry Alabama’s GOP primary overwhelmingly.
We in the South have a history of enjoying our political characters. Over the course of our political folklore our politicians have been our entertainment. Louisiana had Huey and Earl Long. Georgia had the Talmadges. South Carolina had Pitchfork Ben Tillman and we may have had the best with George Wallace and the king of entertainment, Big Jim Folsom.
Big Jim would travel from town to town singing and dancing with his country band the Strawberry Pickers. He was a roadshow. At 6’9” he was the epitome of the words uninhibited and unfiltered.
Donald Trump is essentially nothing more than an entertainer. He is used to dominating the television stage with his game show. He is a huckster and promoter and loves the limelight. He is George Wallace and Big Jim Folsom rolled into one. He has Wallace’s flair for demagoguery and Big Jim’s colorful flair for unbridled quotes. National political analysts are even saying that his voters are of the same profile as the George Wallace voters in the 1972 Presidential Race.
Trump epitomizes the anti-establishment and race baiting politics that appeal to southern voters. He is a throwback to a bygone era. Indeed his presence on the stage this year could possibly pave the way for an epic event from another bygone era. Some are suggesting that we may see an old timey brokered convention at the Republican National Convention this summer in Cleveland.
The very large GOP field of well-funded candidates that are parading into Alabama may be able to stay on the stage longer than usual. It is a fact that Republican Party regulars perceive Trump as unelectable and find him unpalatable. Therefore, they will try to derail his train.
The rise of Super PACs and new political money raised online has put tons of money into campaigns never before seen in history. Therefore, while in past years when someone does poorly in primaries their money dries up and they winnow away, these candidates can continue to stay on the stage and cling to their delegates.
There has not been a protracted GOP convention that went beyond the first ballot since 1952. The last state primaries are on June 7. It takes 1,237 delegates to be nominated. If Trump does not have that number, then there will be a stalemate. This is a recipe for the conservative GOP regulars to have to deal with some chaos.
Trump has forged to the front and is the frontrunner but if there are still a host of candidates left by June it will prevent him from garnering the 50% needed to win. There may be a concerted effort by party insiders who generally believe that Trump is not the optimal candidate against Clinton in the general election. So they may try to block him.
However, they are overlooking the fact that Trump is the master of the art of the deal. The Don may deal them out and make a deal with either Cruz or Rubio or someone else to make them his VP running mate just prior to the convention.
It is a fun show to watch. We could wind up having old timey convention filled with multiple ballots, floor demonstrations, dark horses and favorite sons, minus the smoke filled rooms, because the halls today do not allow smoking. It would be a good show. We will see.
See you next week.