February 03, 2016
There are a good many stories about elections of the 1940’s and 50’s where vote were bought and elections stolen. The most brazen and blatant stealing of an election occurred in the 1948 race for the U.S. Senate in Texas. The players were Coke Stevenson versus Lyndon B. Johnson. Therefore, it can also be classified as one of the most relevant robberies in American history because if Johnson had lost, as he was supposed to, it would have dramatically impacted U.S. history.
Coke Stevenson was a legendary Texas icon. He was the epitome of a Texas gentleman and revered. He was Texas’ Horatio Alger and Davy Crockett combined. He raised himself from age 12, built a ranching empire, was Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives, and a very popular Governor of Texas. Stevenson was above reproach. He would not lie, steal or cheat and Texans knew that about old Coke.
On the other hand, Lyndon Johnson had already earned the reputation in Texas that he would continue to earn in Washington, that is that he would do whatever it took to win. He was totally corrupt and ruthless, without any semblance of a conscience.
Johnson had been a congressman from East Texas for six years. When the U.S. Senate seat came open in 1948, he made the decision to roll the dice and go for broke. Lyndon did not know that the legendary former governor, Coke Stevenson, would enter the race.
The initial poll had Stevenson about 68% to Johnson’s 18%. However, Stevenson had no idea to what limits Johnson would go to be a U.S. Senator. Johnson applied modern day politics to that era. He introduced polling and what it meant in detail. He even used a helicopter to fly from town to town and land on court squares to speak and shake hands, but mostly he used negative and false campaign mailings to destroy the stellar Stevenson’s reputation. Stevenson was from a different era. He refused to go negative and would not reply to any negative accusations no matter how maliciously false.
Johnson was able to utilize this massive media blitz because he had more campaign funds than any candidate in Texas history. He had unlimited financial backing from the giant Brown and Root Company of Texas. They are now the Halliburton Corporation. They were then as now the recipients of gigantic government construction contracts. Johnson was their boy and would do their bidding as their senator so they poured money into the race like water.
Johnson outspent Stevenson 10 to 1, but it was not enough. When the votes were counted on election night, Stevenson had won by a narrow margin. However, the election was not over. Stevenson was about to be counted out.
The Rio Grande Valley along the Texas and Mexican border was known as the region where votes could be bought. Most close elections were decided in these counties, which would come in days after the original count with just the right number of votes needed to win the election. This is how Johnson won by only 87 votes in a race where over one million votes were cast.
Johnson became known as Landslide Lyndon in Washington because of this 87 vote victory. It was also an allusion to how he had stolen the seat. Some people think that Johnson’s title, Landslide Lyndon, stemmed from his landslide victory over Barry Goldwater in the 1964 Presidential Race, but it was actually from the 1948 Texas Senate Race.
A legendary tale that is attributed to Johnson in this infamous race claims that in the days following the election, while garnering enough votes for victory, Johnson and the political bosses of the Valley counties were going through cemeteries and taking names of dead Mexicans off of tombstones to register as voters. They could not decipher one of the names and asked Lyndon what to do. Johnson quickly replied, give him a name, he’s got as much right to vote as the rest of them in this cemetery do.
See you next week.
January 27, 2016
As discussed last week, several of the headline Alabama news stories of 2015 may also be the blockbusters of 2016. The Mike Hubbard trial and the decision of the federal courts on Alabama’s legislative district lines will be determined in the first half of this year.
The biggest news and political story of this year may be a continuation of last year’s major issue and it also surrounds the Alabama Legislature. The State General Fund woes will again be front and center.
As the quadrennium began in 2015, state officials were told that in order to simply level fund the woefully funded General Fund, the legislature would have to come up with between $200-300 million. Everyone agreed that the shortfall was a problem. Gov. Robert Bentley began his second term proposing $541 million in new taxes as a solution. His proposals were repeatedly rebuked by the legislature. That battle and wrangling over the budget lasted most of the year. It wound through the four month session and three legislative sessions.
The final 2015 legislative solution was to raise limited revenue by increasing the cigarette tax by 25 cents per pack, which will bring in about $70 million in new revenue. They also shifted $80 million in use tax money from the Education Trust Fund to the General Fund. Therefore, they essentially kicked the proverbial can down the road once again.
As the 2016 Legislative Session begins next week, the chronic problems are looming in the anemic General Fund. In the Senate, the Finance Committee chairs have changed hats so to speak. They have swapped posts. State Sen. Arthur Orr of Decatur, who previously chaired the General Fund Finance Committee, will head the Education Finance panel and Sen. Trip Pittman of Baldwin will leave Chairman of Education to be head of the General Fund writing committee. A good swap for Orr.
Sen. Pittman will join hands with Rep. Steve Clouse, who chairs the House General Fund Committee. Clouse and Pittman have unenviable tasks. Clouse is already predicting two percent cuts across the board, including the sacred cows of Medicaid, Courts and Prisons.
Resistance to taxes is still prevalent in both chambers and Senate President Del Marsh of Anniston, who sponsored a casino/lottery bill last year, said he would not come with that proposal again this year. However, a clean pure lottery bill could be discussed. If it clears the legislature it must be approved by the people in an election. Alabama and Utah are the only two states that derive no revenue from gambling. The casino/lottery proposal would raise $330 million for the state. A pure lottery would generate about $225 million.
There may be a move to unearmark some of Alabama’s taxes as the Session looms. Alabama currently earmarks more than four fifths of its tax revenue for specific purposes. This idea perpetually raises its head in times of budget crisis. Indeed legislation has been pre-filed to transfer a greater portion of wine and liquor revenues and profits to the General Fund.
This unearmarking has been unsuccessful in the past. The best historical example was a classic battle between Gov. George Wallace and Alabama Education Associations icon Dr. Paul Hubbert. Wallace went on television with two jars of pennies – one full and overflowing symbolic of the Education Fund and one half full representing the General Fund. Wallace said he simply wanted to borrow a few of the pennies from Education and put into the half empty glass jar. Hubbert thwarted Wallace’s plan. However, Hubbert is gone and so is the power of the AEA. It died with Hubbert.
This legislative body has shown keen interest in and indeed the propensity to raid the Special Education Trust Fund Budget. With the death of the AEA there is nobody to guard the Education dollars hen house. Therefore, the legislature sees robbing the Education Fund to pay for the General Fund as an easy solution.
During the heyday of flush Education funding higher education benefited tremendously from the power of Hubbert’s AEA, “A rising tide sails all ships.” It may be time for higher education to step up to the plate and thwart the raid on their education dollars.
See you next week.
January 20, 2016
A good many of the news stories that were the most noteworthy events of 2015 will continue into this new year of 2016 and may repeat as the major headlines of this year.
Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard will go on trial in his home of Lee County in early spring. Hubbard, the Republican Speaker, is the architect and leader of the GOP takeover of the Alabama House. Ironically, one of the cornerstone issues heralded by Hubbard in his coup was ethics reform. Interestingly, one of the most incriminating emails revealed during discovery was one in which Hubbard essentially asked his buddy, former Gov. Bob Riley, why in the world did we pass that ethics law?
Hubbard has been indicted on 23 felony counts of ethics law violations. These ethics canons were passed and heralded by Hubbard and his leadership team in the House, which has remained loyal to Hubbard throughout the course of his trial. Hubbard was indicted in 2014. The GOP dominated House reelected him Speaker in January 2015 as the new quadrennium began. Their justification was that in America you are innocent until proven guilty.
During 2015 there were ongoing legal battles between the state prosecutors and Hubbard’s attorneys. These skirmishes filled the news periodically throughout the year. The case continuation seemed to cause some disintegration of Hubbard’s political hold on the House. In addition, the protracted budget fight that lasted most of 2015 created tension and discord.
During the last Special Session, while dealing with the General Fund Budget, some of the GOP backbenchers challenged Hubbard and some actually called for his resignation. Rep. Phil Williams of Huntsville actually launched a campaign to run against Hubbard as Speaker.
Hubbard’s trial is set to begin in late March so the Speaker will be absent from the presiding post for most of the Regular Session while attending his trial. If he is convicted on any of the 23 counts, not only will he have to vacate the Speakership but he will also be forced to leave the House entirely. Hubbard’s successor would be elected among the House of Representatives. Regardless of the outcome this story portends to be one of the leading news stories of 2016.
Speaking of the legislature, an issue that arose in 2015 and should be resolved this year has strangely gone completely under the radar screen. Alabama’s House and Senate district lines, which were drawn and adopted in 2013, are up in the air. Our current legislature was elected in 2014 under these lines. When drawing the lines, the Legislative Reapportionment Committee meticulously complied with every aspect of the existing Voting Rights Laws and judicial holdings. Minority districts were preserved and even enhanced. Under Alabama’s 2014 redistricting the state’s racial compliance, as called for under the Voting Rights Act, is one of the fairest in the nation.
It was thought by most observers that a perfunctory appeal of the lines by the Alabama Legislative Black Caucus and the Alabama Democratic Conference was nothing more than a Hail Mary. Indeed, a three judge federal panel approved the state’s plan. However, the U.S. Supreme Court heard the case on appeal and in a surprise 5-4 decision in March remanded the case back to the three judge panel to reconsider.
Justice Stephen Breyer, in writing for the majority of the Supreme Court, said the judges should look at the individual districts to determine whether they were racially gerrymandered. The Supreme Court is plowing new ground in Alabama and in other southern states by saying that black voters were “packed and stacked” in majority-minority districts stifling their power in the legislative process.
In August, the panel asked the plaintiffs to submit maps to comply with the ambiguous Supreme Court ruling. They did so in September. The three judge federal panel could rule on the maps at any time. Even though most of the changes suggested by the plaintiffs are minor and subtle and do not affect most existing lines, the federal courts could very well call for new legislative elections this year. If that happens it would be as big a story as the Hubbard trial.
See you next week.
January 13, 2016
Last week we discussed the presidential race. The GOP race for the nomination has been one of the most illuminating in history. Never before have political novices been the frontrunners. It is obvious that voters prefer an outsider with no governmental experience. Donald Trump and Ben Carson would both be considered outsiders, both lacking in political experience and skills and Trump lacking tact. No matter what they say or the amateurish blunders they make they doggedly cling to their lead in the polls.
Over the years I have been able to predict Alabama political races with some accuracy. However, national and presidential politics not so much. A prime example would be the presidential race eight years ago. In 2008, I looked at Fred Thompson and saw a presidential winner. He was tall with a deep gravelly voice. He had charisma and gravitas, not to mention a perfect resume and bio to be president. Read more
January 06, 2016
Folks, we are in the midst of a presidential race. It has been ongoing for well over a year. We will select a new president in November. Barack Obama has served his eight year limit. Thus, the parade of candidates seeking to occupy the Oval Office has been long, especially on the Republican side.
You may have noticed that in the previous paragraph I used the word select rather than elect. That would be the proper term since we do not elect our president. The Electoral College selects him or her. It does not matter if one person receives more votes than the other nationwide. The candidate who carries the proper number of states and garners the most electoral votes from those states is declared the president.Read more
December 30, 2015
As we close the final page on the 2015 book, my yearend tradition is to reminisce about the passing away of significant players on the Alabama political stage.
The first obituary is not a person but an entity. The Alabama Education Association is essentially dead as a political organization. The king is dead. When Paul Hubbert died the AEA died. It is as though it rose and fell with his life. He reigned as King of Goat Hill for over 30 years.Read more
December 23, 2015
As we look back over the past year’s political events one week stands out. During one week in the middle of 2015, three momentous events occurred. All three came down bang, bang, bang in the week leading up to the fourth of July.
First was the landmark decision by the U.S. Supreme Court, which deemed same sex marriage legal and the law of the land. Then the historic BP settlement, which granted Alabama $1.3 billion for environmental recovery and an additional $1 billion for economic losses. Finally, was Governor Bentley’s executive order removing all of the confederate flags from the Capitol.
All three decisions will have an impact on state politics. How will these three events affect Alabama politics in the next few years?Read more
December 16, 2015
This week we will conclude our analysis of the potential horses in the 2018 Alabama Gubernatorial Derby. First, let me briefly recap the horses we have already handicapped. The list includes, in descending order, Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard (18), Supreme Court Justice Jim Main (17), Sen. Greg Reed (16), Sen. Arthur Orr (15), Anniston Mayor Vaughn Stewart (14), Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox (13), Mobile Mayor Sandy Stimpson (12), Congressman Bradley Byrne (11), Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey (10), Sen. Del Marsh (9), State Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan (8), Attorney General Luther Strange (7), Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle (6), State Treasurer Young Boozer (5), and Secretary of State John Merrill (4). The final three horses will be revealed today.
Our Number 3 horse is Tim James. James could have easily won the 2010 Governor’s Race. In fact, if the primary had been two weeks earlier polling reveals he would have won. However, the last ten days leading up to the primary unveiled a volley of negative ads hurled between Tim James and Bradley Byrne, which propelled Bentley into the runoff and ultimate victory. Being within an eyelash of victory has got to stick in James’ craw. He may have the itch to run again. He is young and has some personal money to get the ball rolling again. Having run a successful get acquainted race makes him a viable candidate. That is why I have Tim James at number 3.Read more
December 09, 2015
This week we will continue our analysis of the potential horses in the 2018 Alabama Gubernatorial Derby. So far, we have counted down from 18 to 8. In descending order the list includes, Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard (18), Supreme Court Justice Jim Main (17), Sen. Greg Reed (16), Sen. Arthur Orr (15), Mayor Vaughn Stewart (14), Mayor Walt Maddox (13), Mayor Sandy Stimpson (12), Congressman Bradley Byrne (11), Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey (10), Sen. Del Marsh (9), and State Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan (8). The next four horses will be revealed today and we will conclude the series next week when we reveal the top three horses.
We begin this week with the Number 7 horse, Attorney General Luther Strange. Of the known candidates, Luther will have served eight years in a job that is the best stepping stone to governor. At 6’9” Big Luther will be the tallest horse in the race. He is a proven fundraiser with close personal ties to the Birmingham business community. However, he has had a somewhat controversial tenure. His continuation of the Bob Riley era gambling circus demagoguery is a tar baby.Read more
December 02, 2015
This week we will continue counting down and handicapping the prospective horses in the 2018 Alabama Gubernatorial Derby. We handicapped the following horses in descending order last week, Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard (18), Supreme Court Justice Jim Main (17), Sen. Greg Reed (16), Sen. Arthur Orr (15) and Mayor Vaughn Stewart (14).
This week we begin with horse Number 13, a spot which is held by a mayor of a major city. Interestingly, four of the eighteen horses in the 2018 Alabama Derby are mayors.
The Number 13 horse, Mayor Walt Maddox, is the young popular Mayor of Tuscaloosa. The Druid City has become the political hot bed and launching pad for statewide office. It is home to Sen. Richard Shelby and Gov. Robert Bentley. Some believe that Maddox wants to follow Bentley as governor.Read more