August 23, 2017
When the race for the open Jeff Sessions seat began, it appeared to be a Roy Moore versus Luther Strange contest. Well folks, that’s how it ended last Tuesday. We’ve got a runoff between our Ten Commandments Judge, Roy Moore, and Big Luther Strange.
Roy Moore has been around Alabama politics for a while now. Alabamians know who he is and what he stands for. He has been standing up for Fundamentalist Christian values since his days as an Etowah County Judge where he displayed his initial wooden Ten Commandments plaque on the walls of his courtroom. He became so famous for his stand that he rode that notoriety to being elected Chief Justice of Alabama’s Supreme Court.
Alabama is undoubtedly one of, if not the most, fundamentalist Bible believing states in America. Most of the hard-core fundamentalist Moore followers put more credence in the Old Testament than the New Testament. Therefore, Moore’s emphasis on the Ten Commandments resonated then and still does today.
Judge Roy Moore became emboldened when he became Chief Justice. In the dark of night he had a 5,000-pound monument placed in the Supreme Court building’s rotunda. A federal court asked him to remove it. He refused and they removed him.
It made him a martyr among the brethren. He ran twice for governor but failed to make the runoff each time. It appeared to be a chink in his armor. It became obvious to those of us who follow Alabama politics that voters thought highly of him as a judge but for some reason did not see him as a governor.
This became clearly apparent when five years ago he disposed of two well-financed opponents in a race for his old post as Chief Justice. He won handily even though he was outspent 3-to-1. Folks in Alabama like Moore as a judge. However, it appears that they may like him as a U.S. Senator.
If you think he was thought of as a martyr for being removed from the Bench for standing up for his Ten Commandments monument, folks in Alabama really resented some vague judicial inquiry commission asking him to leave his seat as Chief Justice for telling Probate Judges in the state to stop marrying gay people. In the “Heart of Dixie” you cannot ask for a better entree into a governor’s race or senate race.
Early polling showed Moore was so far out front in the governor’s race that he would have beaten the current field without a runoff. This judicial inquiry group coronated Moore and made him a folk hero. Ole George Wallace would have loved to have been dealt these cards. I can just hear him now, “Well I’ll tell you right now if two homosexual people want to get married in Alabama I’ll be the first one to stand in the courthouse door and stop ‘em. I’ll even get them a one-way bus ticket to California where they can just stay, and I’ll tell you this too, if one of those transgenders protests in front of my car they may as well get ready to get run over. And if y’all send me to Washington, I’ll ask for a seat next to the left wing socialist wackos, Bernie Sanders and Pocahontas Warren, and I’ll ask them what bathroom they think the transgenders should go to. Then I’ll introduce a resolution requiring all transgenders be sent to California to live with those communist sympathizing, left wing movie stars and appear on the Stephen Colbert and Bill Maher shows.”
Wallace would have had a field day. Wallace was a master politician; some would say a demagogue. Moore was dealt this hand. He is not the politician that George Wallace was. He actually is a true believer. He is not a demagogue. He has put his money where his mouth is. He lost his job not once but twice over his beliefs. Believe me, George Wallace would not have left his job as governor if they told him he was going to be sent back to Barbour County if he did not get out of that school house door.
Folks in Alabama feel like Moore was done wrong and they set out to right that wrong. They were going to elect Moore governor next year. However, they rather have him as their Senator.
As expected Moore led the field last week. Next week we will analyze the race and runoff and how his opponent, Big Luther Strange, stacks up against Moore.
See you next week.
August 16, 2017
You know the results of Tuesday’s primaries for our U.S. Senate seat. I had to go to press before the vote. However, the assumption was that there would be a runoff in the Republican primary. It is safe to say that the winner of that runoff on September 26 will be elected as our next junior U.S. Senator. We are such a reliably Republican state that winning the GOP Primary will be tantamount to election in December.
It may surprise you for me to say that it really makes very little difference as to who ultimately wins this seat. Whichever Republican prevails will vote no differently than the other. Despite all the money spent, name calling, and campaigning, whoever the Republican primary victor is will vote conservatively right down the line. They will have the identical conservative voting record as Jeff Sessions. They all would vote right on the litmus test hot button GOP issues like abortion, immigration, balanced budget, pro military, pro gun and pro agriculture. Whoever wins will support President Donald Trump and the most conservative Supreme Court nominee available.
Therefore, your choice is Tweedle Dee or Tweedle Dum. Your only choice is which personality you like best. It is like whether you like right wing vanilla or right wing strawberry ice cream. Whichever Republican you choose out of this batch of ice cream you will still have an ice cream sandwich who will vote for the right wing conservative agenda.
Therefore, will one be able to be more efficient? Probably not. Seniority is what dictates power in the Washington Congressional pecking order and guess what - our new Junior U.S. Senator will rank 100th in Seniority in the 100 member U.S. Senate.
Their path to power is also limited by their age. If the ultimate victor is one of the projected frontrunners, they are getting to the Senate at too old of an age to be a player or make a difference. Roy Moore is 70, Luther Strange is 64, and Mo Brooks is 63. Whoever becomes the Senator will be finished before anybody in Washington knows who they are and none of them will ever chair a committee. Therefore, it really doesn’t matter which Republican ultimately wins.
However, do not be dismayed, we have a senior U.S. Senator who can pick up any slack. Folks, our senior Senator is Richard Shelby. We do not even need a second senator when we have Shelby.
Richard Shelby, because of his seniority and senatorial prowess and prestige is easily one of the three most powerful members of the United States Senate.
Senator Shelby is the Chairman of the Senate Rules Committee. Folks, what that means is that before any law, any budget, or any Supreme Court nominee gets to the floor of the U.S. Senate, Senator Shelby has to approve it. This makes him about as powerful as the President. I am not saying that Shelby trumps Trump in power. However, I am saying that there are about 95 Senators who need the President. There are about five Senators that Trump needs more than they need him. Shelby is one of them.
Most special interest groups and really anybody or any entity like the NRA who want anything done in Washington would rather have Richard Shelby on their side rather than Donald Trump.
Richard Shelby has reached a pinnacle of power never before seen in Alabama’s rich political lore of U.S. Senators.
We have had some great Senators. The names of John H. Bankhead, Lister Hill and John Sparkman are legendary. However, Richard Shelby has surpassed those giants in power and what he has done for Alabama.
Richard Shelby is in his 31st year of representing us in the U.S. Senate. He has chaired the Senate Intelligence Committee, the Senate Banking Committee, and now the Senate Rules Committee. Within two years, he will break John Sparkman’s 32-year Senate tenure record. Shelby will probably make a lateral move to chair the Senate Appropriations Committee. If you think he has brought home the bacon the past three decades, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Do not fret about who our junior U.S. Senator is going to be. It really does not matter when you have Richard Shelby.
See you next week.
August 09, 2017
Folks we are getting down to the proverbial lick log in the much-anticipated vote for the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions. After 20 years in the U.S. Senate as our junior U.S. Senator, Sessions left to become Donald Trump’s Attorney General. He probably regrets this decision.
When the race began it looked like a Roy Moore vs. Luther Strange race. However, the third outside horse emerged about a month ago. Tennessee Valley Congressman, Mo Brooks, got a $2 million bump from the shooting he endured while a member of the Republican baseball team. He seized the moment and Mo’s momentum gave him the “Big Mo.”
About three weeks ago it looked like a three man race between Moore, Strange and Brooks. However, the Washington beltway consultants, pollsters, and media experts supporting Strange poured a ton of money into stopping Mo’s momentum with negative ads designed to thwart his catching Luther and ousting him from the runoff. Recent polls indicate that it has worked.
The latest polls indicate a one-two finish between Moore and Strange. Strange’s Washington pollsters tout that he may finish in first place ahead of Moore. Money talks and it is the mother’s milk of politics.
State Senator Trip Pittman will do better than some experts expect. Watch for him to get a good hometown vote in Mobile and Baldwin Counties.
Moore’s support has never diminished. It consistently hovers around 30 percent, even with his inability to raise or spend much money. On the other hand, Luther Strange’s supporters have spent $3 - $5 million. The Bentley appointment has been a tremendous albatross for Luther. Turnout is critical. Luther Strange would benefit from a large turnout among upscale Jefferson/Shelby metro voters. Mo Brooks hopes may ride on a large turnout in the Tennessee Valley.
Strange’s and Moore’s odds are enhanced by the short window that the race was run. Strange’s chances have been boosted by the endorsement of Alfa. This conservative group’s endorsement carries a lot of weight.
When Luther took the tainted nomination from Robert Bentley six months ago, he was told that he would have two years before he would run. Under that scenario, his bet that a ton of money would be all he would need to keep the seat was a good bet. However, when Governor Kay Ivey changed that election to this year the scenario changed dramatically.
If Luther were running in 2018 there would be 60 races on the ballot with a record 300 names from which to choose. The average voter, who could care less who the junior U.S. Senator is anyway, will also be voting for State Senator, State Representative, Sheriff, Probate Judge, Circuit Judge, District Judge, five seats on the State Supreme Court, along with a spirited Chief Justice contest, State Auditor, State Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner, an open contested Attorney General race, an open contested Lt. Governor’s race, and one of the most crowded Governor’s races in state history that may well attract 10 viable candidates.
The millions spent to elect Luther Strange would have been overwhelming. Folks would have walked into the booth and voted for the only name they knew. However, this is the only race in town. The people who show up to vote will know the score. With the election being August 15 and it being the only race, there will be a low turnout. Also, any money spent for negative attacks will generally drive down the voter turnout.
All indications point to a low voter turnout, which helps Moore. He began with 30 percent and they have not gone anywhere. His 30 percent will vote and the lower the turnout, the higher percentage that 30 percent becomes. Moore’s folks will not be at the lake or beach or deterred by the August heat. They are ardent and they will vote.
Remember a poll is a picture of the total electorate. The final poll and the one that counts is the count of votes of those who actually show up to vote next Tuesday.
We will see.
July 26, 2017
During my tenure in the legislature in the 1980’s and 1990’s, political party affiliation was not as pronounced as it is today.
We were identified within the Montgomery/Capitol arena as either a conservative pro-business legislator or a liberal pro-union/pro-trial lawyer legislator.
Similar to when someone new arrives in Alabama and they are asked to choose sides in college football, you have to make your allegiance with either Alabama or Auburn. We had to make the same choice as legislators. I chose early to be on the side of business. I even took a leading role and was the sponsor of most of the Tort Reform legislation. Therefore, most observers rated me an arch pro-business conservative.
The tort problem was so bad in Alabama that we were considered the black eye of the nation. Time Magazine called us “Tort Hell.” With the help of the National Business Community, along with Alabama business leaders and legislators, the Business Council of Alabama was formed. The BCA grew to become the most powerful organization in Alabama.
When Bob Riley became governor in 2002, he orchestrated a game plan to take control of the BCA. He succeeded and put his boy, Billy Canary, a Washington political insider in control. Canary was a political hack that would carry out dirty tricks and chicanery for George Bush and Karl Rowe.
Bob Riley and Mike Hubbard controlled the BCA through Billy Canary. Riley still continues to pull the strings and make money. However, everything points to Canary’s days at the BCA coming to an end. There have been rumors of his demise for over a year. It appears that it may occur any day. For those of us who fought the battles for business in Alabama and saw the birth and creation of the BCA, that day is long overdue.
Under Canary’s and Riley’s reign BCA has abandoned it’s mission of supporting business and the general well-being of the state and now, in the opinion of many, does more harm than good.
No one familiar with the workings of the legislature will deny that Canary has become largely ineffective in representing the interests of business in the legislative process. For the past few years he has failed to pass an infrastructure bill largely supported by business across the state. This past session Canary failed in his efforts to stop legislation that would require insurance coverage for some Autism related issues. On the Autism measure, Canary could get only one vote for his position on the Senate floor. Most GOP legislators vote against pro-business legislation because of Canary.
Billy Canary’s leadership goes past simply failure and begins to enter the realm of causing real harm to the state and the businesses he represents. Canary once boasted of his position on convicted Speaker Mike Hubbard’s “kitchen cabinet.” However, in the Hubbard trial Canary was less than convincing on the stand as his memory fades on issues discussed with Hubbard. Some of those issues were part and parcel of the 12 felony convictions that removed Hubbard from office. Most folks expected Canary would be indicted with Hubbard.
Now, BCA and Canary face possible involvement in the North Birmingham corruption investigation that has already resulted in one House member’s confession to crime.
Some observers believe the scandal surrounding an anonymous ethics complaint that scuttled Dr. Craig Pouncey’s bid to be the State Superintendent of Education may lead back to Canary.
The Board of the BCA and everyone concerned with the future of Alabama should be asking why in the world Canary has taken a once proud and effective organization into such controversial issues that have so little to do with core business interests. The answer is simple – Billy Canary has numerous conflicts of interest.
During his tenure as President of the BCA Canary has continued to maintain outside consulting contracts that pose clear conflicts with his role at BCA. However, this should come as no surprise since Billy Canary’s home is New York.
Any organization that does not adapt ultimately cannot survive. BCA is at a critical crossroads in its existence. If the leadership of the organization does not replace Canary and move quickly to realign BCA with the interests of its members, its days as a vital voice for Alabama Business may be over.
See you next week.
July 19, 2017
As the horse race for our open U.S. Senate seat heads down the stretch, let’s look at the lay of the land.
All indications are that Roy Moore and Luther Strange are headed for a one-two finish on August 15 and ultimately a runoff on September 26. The winner of that match will be our junior U. S. Senator for the next three years of the Jeff Sessions’ seat term.
The short window for the campaign helps Moore and Strange. They both have name identification and have run several successful campaigns for significant statewide offices
Roy Moore has worked the rural areas of the state quietly without much money. Luther Strange has bought heavy TV time in the Birmingham media market hoping to turnout upscale suburban Republicans.
A combination of polls as we head around the curve and into the last leg of the race has Moore at 30, Strange at 28 and Brooks at 18.
The caveat to remember is that turnout is critical. Moore’s 30 percent will show up. Therefore, his final vote tally on August 15 could be higher than 30. A poll is a picture of the entire electorate. The poll that actually counts is the poll on August 15 and it is comprised of those that showed up to cast their ballot.
Congressman Mo Brooks has the best chance to upset one of the two frontrunners. He represents the vote rich Tennessee Valley in Congress. He is the only viable candidate from that neck of the woods. He is a member of the Right Wing Freedom Caucus in Congress. If that ultra conservative group has a grassroots fundraising organization and they raise Mo some money, he could surprise and overcome Luther.
There are two descriptions I like to use when assessing a U.S. Senator and the script they seek as your senator. Senator Richard Shelby is the ultimate caretaker. He has proven to be the greatest U.S. Senator in Alabama history. Over the past 30 years, he has brought home the bacon. He has also voted conservatively.
In fact, if you compare the voting records of Shelby and Sessions they would be identical. However, Jeff Sessions would be categorized as an ideologue. He was an ultraconservative during his tenure in the Senate and was considered one of the upper bodies’ most arch right wing reactionaries. Therefore, would Roy Moore or Mo Brooks or Luther Strange be considered a caretaker or an ideologue?
Mo Brooks has already proven to be an ideologue as a Congressman. There is no question but that Roy Moore would be the ultimate ideologue. He would arrive in Washington and by national standards would be the caricature that the Democratic Party would use as the poster boy that depicts how far right the Republican Party is today. It would be Moore’s mission to be perceived as the most ideologically religious zealot on the scene. Alabama would be known for having the most religious right wing senator in the nation. The national Democrats would use Roy Moore’s picture in every ad in every California race the same way Obama was used Alabama.
Luther Strange would be in the mold of Senator Richard Shelby as a caretaker. Shelby would mentor Luther, who is more of a mainstream conservative.
Strange, Moore or Brooks would all vote conservatively right down the line. They would have the identical voting record as Jeff Sessions or Richard Shelby on all the litmus test GOP issues like abortion, immigration, balanced budget, pro-military, pro-gun, pro-agriculture and most importantly the appointment and confirmation of conservative Supreme Court Justices.
However, without question, Luther Strange would be a much more effective U.S. Senator for Alabama than Roy Moore or Mo Brooks. He would be more of the type Senator that we have in Richard Shelby. We have had some greats like Shelby, Lister Hill, John Sparkman, and John Bankhead.
Alabama would be better served to have a conservative caretaker in Washington than a reactionary right wing ideologue. However, Alabamians may prefer having a missionary in Washington rather than a visionary – at least those who show up to vote on August 15.
See you next week.
July 12, 2017
The race for our open U.S. Senate seat is evolving. Folks, we are in a brief 33-day sprint to the primary on August 15. The winner of the Republican Primary will be our next junior U.S. Senator. The December 12 General Election will be a coronation for the Republican. The eight Democratic candidates are irrelevant as are at least six of the Republican qualifiers.
It is doubtful that either candidate can win the August GOP Primary without a runoff. Therefore, the two left standing will square off on September 26, after six more weeks of grueling and negative campaigning.
All early indications pointed to a two-man race between Roy Moore and Luther Strange. However, both of these high profile veterans of state politics have high negatives. These high negatives surrounding Moore and Strange point to the high possibility of a third person winning this race.
The possible outside horse has emerged. Tennessee Valley Congressman, Mo Brooks, is gaining momentum. He could be the surprise in the race. Brooks garnered an amazing amount of free publicity by being one of the Republican Congressmen targeted and shot at in the June shooting of Republican congressional baseball players.
You cannot get any better introduction to Alabama voters than being given prime time news coverage as an Alabama Congressman who is so conservative that a left wing wacko, Bernie Sanders socialist gunman fires upon you while you are riding your bicycle to practice baseball for the Republican team.
It is now a three-man horserace heading into the homestretch. Every poll has Moore leading Strange and Brooks fighting for the runoff spot with the Ten Commandments Judge.
Polling indicates that the majority of GOP Primary voters in our state do not want to vote for either Roy Moore or Luther Strange. Both have a large reservoir of detractors. Middle of the road, urbane Republicans are turned off and embarrassed by Roy Moore. They look upon him as a demagoguing, backwoods, Primitive Baptist, religious nut. They cringe at how he might embarrass the state if he got to Washington. The Beltway Republican establishment fears Moore’s independence and religious zealot antics and demonstrations. That is why you will see millions of Washington Super PAC money flow into the Heart of Dixie to elect Luther Strange.
Luther’s negatives stem from the way he garnered the interim senate seat vacancy. The perception is that he is currently in Washington because of a brazen, audacious, corrupt deal between him and disgraced former governor, Robert Bentley. It looks to the average voter that Luther Strange and Robert Bentley were in collusion in a backroom deal where Bentley, in his waning hours as governor, gave Luther Strange the appointment in exchange for Luther, as Attorney General, not moving with prosecuting Bentley and his advisor.
Millions of Washington money may be able to wash away the Bentley taint. That is what Luther is banking on happening. You are seeing the avalanche of TV and media buys for Big Luther. His Washington handlers are scripting him to perfection. They are keeping him hidden out of sight. They are avoiding all media and debates. They will slip him into an event and get a photo of him there then quickly whisk him away. They will not allow him to be interviewed by any Alabama media. They do not want him to be asked about the appointment. He was pretty good about avoiding the media during his six years as Attorney General. Therefore, his following the instructions of the Potomac pros is an easy script to follow.
Two secondary officeholders could have probably bested Strange out of the runoff. John Merrill or Twinkle Cavanaugh would have been tough for Luther.
The two best candidates from the Congressional delegation would have been Congressmen Bradley Byrne or Robert Aderholt. Either of these two thoroughbreds would have made the runoff with Moore.
The Roy Moore versus Luther Strange battle illuminates a natural divide in the Republican Party. It is almost like two separate tribes.
It pits the evangelical, Donald Trump, George Wallace Republicans against the mainstream pro-business establishment Republicans.
As one North Alabamian told me, “We will see if Moses with his Ten Commandments comes down off Sand Mountain with the Hebrew children and slays the seven foot Philistine Mountain Brook giant.”
See you next week.
July 05, 2017
As we take a mid-year look at Alabama politics, it has been an eventful first half of the year.
It is not every year that a governor resigns mid-term. Governor Robert Bentley’s resignation from office on April 10 will more than likely be the most newsworthy story of the year.
Bentley’s saga had begun 18 months ago. His troubles stemmed from his relationship with his primary and probably only advisor, who was married to a quiet man whom Bentley placed in a vague $90,000 position with the state. It was a titillating story that led to an investigation and later finding by the State Ethics Commission that there was reasonable evidence that Bentley may have violated the law. Facing probable impeachment by the Legislature, Bentley resigned in disgrace.
The most noteworthy event was the appointment of our Junior U.S. Senator Jeff Sessions to the powerful post of U.S. Attorney General. Sessions was one of President Donald Trump’s first Cabinet appointments.
Sessions departure from the Senate seat left open his coveted post. In his waning days as governor, Bentley interviewed about 20 qualified candidates for the interim appointment. Bentley eventually appointed Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange, a worthy choice.
However, the appointment of Strange caused tremendous furor among Alabamians. A few months earlier, Strange stated he was investigating the Governor. The appointment of the Attorney General to the seat had the appearance of a brazen act of collusion between the Governor and Strange.
Bentley resigned a month later and Strange went to Washington. Upon the resignation of Bentley, Lt. Governor, Kay Ivey, became the second female governor in state history. Ironically, Kay was a stalwart supporter and worked for our only other female governor, Lurleen Wallace, when she was in college over 50 years ago.
Governor Kay Ivey has shown calm, deliberative and wise leadership in her first three months as governor. She has done a good job and steadily stuck to her knitting governing, rather than cutting ribbons. She inherited the ship of state in the middle of a legislative session. She stayed in close contact with the Senate leadership and brought the session to a successful landing.
The legislative session could indeed be considered a success. Mac McCutcheon, a Republican Representative from Madison County, led his first regular session as Speaker. McCutchen is level headed and a natural facilitator. He is a retired police officer from Huntsville, who worked as a hostage negotiator. He seems fair and runs a more open and egalitarian House than former Speaker Mike Hubbard.
Any legislative session could be considered successful when both budgets are passed. The $1.8 billion General Fund budget passed early due to a one-time influx of $105 million from the BP oil spill settlement. The beleaguered General Fund will be much harder to balance next year, which will be an election year. For the eighth straight year, state workers got no increase in pay.
Even though the Education Trust Fund budget grew by $90 million, teachers also get no pay increase. The $6.4 billion Education budget did include a 20 percent increase in pre-kindergarten funding.
The Legislature abolished judicial override in death penalty cases, voted to require insurers to extend coverage to autism therapies, and ended the ban on midwifery in Alabama.
They chose not to address the prison overcrowding issue. However, this may be a prudent call. It may be wiser to wait until the federal courts decree what they want from the state. This could be a paramount issue that requires a Special Session.
The Republican majority ramrodded a reapportionment plan through the Senate and House over adamant disapproval of black Democrats. The final authority on whether it will stand rests with the federal courts. Until this is decided, there is a cloud over the upcoming legislative races. Republican legislators may have overplayed their hand this time. A federal judge may send Alabama’s demographics to a computer in New York to draw the lines and several of them may find themselves in the same districts several counties away.
See you next week.
June 28, 2017
In Alabama politics many times appointments to political offices filled by an acting governor have an adverse effect on that appointee if and when they seek election to that office for a full term. Every time George Wallace appointed someone to a political post, even in the prime of his popularity and power, they invariably lost in the next election.
Well folks, ole Dr. Bentley ain’t George Wallace and his appointment of Luther Strange to the Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions may come back to haunt Big Luther. His appointment is even more problematic due to the appearance of collusion surrounding the appointment. The taint of the Bentley appointment hovers over Big Luther’s tall head in Washington.
Lyndon Johnson had a similar cloud over his head when he arrived in the U.S. Senate in 1948. It was known that he had stolen the Texas Senate seat when he arrived. When that U.S. Senate seat came open, he made the decision to roll the dice and go for broke. Lyndon did not know that the legendary governor, Coke Stevenson, would enter the race
Coke Stevenson was a legendary Texas icon. He was the epitome of a Texas gentleman and revered. He was Texas’ Horatio Alger and Davy Crockett combined. He raised himself from age 12, built a ranching empire, was Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives and a very popular Governor of Texas. Stevenson was above reproach. He would not lie, steal or cheat and Texans knew that about old Coke.
On the other hand, Lyndon Johnson had already earned the reputation in Texas that he would continue to earn in Washington – he would do whatever it took to win. He was totally corrupt and ruthless without any semblance of a conscience.
Johnson applied modern day politics to that era. He introduced polling and what it meant in detail. He even used a helicopter to fly from town-to-town and land on court squares to speak and shake hands, but mostly he used negative and false campaign mailings to attempt to destroy Stevenson’s stellar reputation.
Stevenson was from a different era. He refused to go negative and would not reply to any negative accusations no matter how maliciously false.
Johnson was able to utilize this massive media blitz because he had more campaign funds than any candidate in Texas history. He had unlimited financial backing from the giant Brown and Root Company of Texas, which is now Halliburton Corporation. They were then, as they are now, the recipients of gigantic government construction contracts. Johnson was their boy and would do their bidding as their senator so they poured money into the race like water.
Johnson outspent Stevenson 10-1, but it was not enough. When the votes were counted on election night, Stevenson had won by a narrow margin. However, the election was not over; Stevenson was about to be counted out.
The Rio Grande Valley along the Texas and Mexican border was known as the region where votes could be bought. Most close elections were decided in these counties, which would come in days after the original count with just the right number of votes needed to win the election. This is how Johnson won by only 87 votes in a race where over one million votes were cast.
Johnson became known as “Landslide Lyndon” in Washington because of this 87-vote victory. It was also an allusion to how he had stolen the seat. Some people think that the nickname “Landslide Lyndon” stems from Johnson’s landslide victory over Barry Goldwater in the 1964 presidential race, but it was actually from the 1948 Texas Senate race.
A legendary tale that is attributed to Johnson in this infamous race claims that in the days following the election, while garnering enough votes for victory, Johnson and the political bosses of the Valley counties were going through cemeteries and taking names of dead Mexicans off the tombstones to register voters. They could not decipher one of the names and asked Lyndon what to do, Johnson quickly replied, “Give him a name, he’s got as much right to vote as the rest of them in this cemetery.”
See you next week
June 21, 2017
The much-anticipated 2018 election contests have been pushed back by about three months due to the unanticipated race for Jeff Sessions’ senate seat. This ongoing contest will occupy the news through late September.
It was previously thought that June 6 would be the opening bell since fundraising for next year’s June 5 Primary could begin at that time. However, the bell will probably commence to chime in full force by Labor Day.
It will be a year for the record books. The ballot will be so long that it will take most folks 15 minutes to vote. We will have an open governor’s race with at least six to nine viable candidates. That same number of folks will be in the open Lt. Governor’s race. You will have a hotly contested open race for Attorney General. There will be five seats up for election on the State Supreme Court. There will be a fight among two sitting Justices, Tom Parker and Lyn Stuart, for Chief Justice, all Probate Judges, and many Circuit and District Court Judges in the State will be running as well as all 67 Sheriffs.
However, the most money will be spent on the 35 State Senate races and 105 State House seats.
In recent years, special interest money in Montgomery has gravitated more than ever to legislative races. The 2018 legislative money raising could begin on June 6 but the jockeying and final decision-making will be delayed by not only the U.S. Senate race. There is also a large cloud of uncertainty as to how the districts will look when all is said and done by the federal courts.
In January a three judge federal panel struck down the current district maps drawn in 2012. The three federal judges were following precedent sent down from the U.S. Supreme Court. Alabama Democrats led by the Alabama Democratic Conference and the Black Legislative Conference prevailed in what appeared to be a “Hail Mary” suit. They won at the U. S. Supreme Court level. The high tribunal’s decision said that the Alabama Republican legislature had intentionally moved Black voters who overwhelmingly vote Democratic into loaded majority-minority districts that made it difficult to form alliances with like-minded white voters.
This new theory embraced by the courts advised that it muted minority voices in the political process. The court is right about that. Democratic Senators and Representatives have been run over repeatedly over the last six years by the Republican majority. They have treated them with irrelevance and irreverence.
The courts told the legislature to fix the lines to suit the Court order. The Republicans ignored the Court and ran over the Democrats again in the regular session. All of the black Democrats voted against the plan. The most contentious issue was over local politics. The Republicans’ maps gave Republicans a one-seat advantage in the House and Senate delegations in Jefferson County. They brought in GOP legislators who live in the suburbs surrounding Birmingham to give them a majority in the demographically Democratic County.
The Courts were essentially ignored in favor of politics. The GOP supermajority continued to use the whip handle with the Democrats.
However, they are not holding the cards in this poker game. When the Court hears the case in September, the GOP plan will be discarded. The court may wind up drawing the new districts that legislators run under in 2018.
The last time the courts drew the lines was in 1983. In that case, the judges sent the demographics and judicial requirements to cartography experts in New York and they fed them into a computer. The Court ordered computer drawn districts that had no regard for county line boundaries or political enclaves, much less protecting incumbents. Several GOP legislators may wake up one morning in October and see that the Courts have put them in the same districts.
Therefore, most lobbyists and special interests are keeping their powder dry. They will probably not be doling out large legislative donations until qualifying time around the first of the year.
The most hotly contested state senate race will be for the Dick Brewbaker seat in the Montgomery River Region. Brewbaker is not running for reelection.
Most insiders expect Senator Harri Ann Smith to retire from her Houston/Geneva Wiregrass seat. Regardless, popular Dothan mayor, Mike Schmitz, is not running for a third term as mayor and is expected to run for that State Senate seat.
We will see.
See you next week.
June 14, 2017
Those of us who follow Alabama politics had circled June 6, 2017 as the beginning of the 2018 governor’s race. However, we did not foresee Donald Trump’s election as President in November and the subsequent appointment of our U.S. Senator, Jeff Sessions, as his Attorney General, thus, opening a U. S. Senate seat and causing the need for an unanticipated special election for the open senate seat this year. Therefore, the race for Sessions’ Senate seat will dominate the political news for at least the next three months.
This Senate seat race has pushed back the timetable for gubernatorial aspirants by about three months. The thoroughbreds who might enter the Derby for the Brass Ring of Alabama politics probably have the luxury of waiting until Labor Day or maybe after the September 26 GOP runoff for U.S. Senator.
However they do need to declare by October 1, because qualifying will begin in late November for next year’s June 5 Primary.
Also we did not anticipate the resignation of Governor Robert Bentley on April 10 and the ultimate elevation of Lt. Governor, Kay Ivey, to Governor.
Kay Ivey has been governor for less than three months; however, she has taken to the post like a “duck to water.” She has been deliberative and decisive and looks very gubernatorial.
She is slowly putting her people into Cabinet posts. Enterprise Mayor, Ken Boswell, is a good choice for ADECA Director. This is a prime post as it doles out all the Federal grants that come to the state for infrastructure projects.
She has named Christopher Blankenship acting Commissioner of Conservation and Natural Resources. She has removed Serve Alabama Director Jon Mason, and Alabama Law Enforcement Agency secretary, Stan Stabler.
Her two closest advisors throughout her career have been Steve Pelham and Will Sellers. She has brought Pelham with her as her Chief of Staff. She has appointed Will Sellers to a vacant seat on the State Supreme Court. Pelham will be the most important person in state government for at least 18 months.
These unforeseen events have changed the political landscape dramatically when it comes to the 2018 governor’s race.
This time last year, Roy Moore and Luther Strange were two of the lead horses for governor. They are now the two frontrunners for the open Senate seat. Win or lose they are removed from the governor’s race.
Kay Ivey’s elevation to governor has made her the favorite at this time. However, as this past year’s events reveal, a lot can change in a year’s time.
As we assess the field with less than a year to the finish line, Kay Ivey is the linchpin of the race. She is the incumbent. She has good name identification and her age, 72, is an advantage rather than a disadvantage. She looks like your grandmother. That sells better than young and glamorous, especially among female voters. They can identify and feel comfortable with Kay. Currently, Kay is in the proverbial catbird’s seat.
The million dollar question is does Kay really want to run for a full four year term. If she were to ask me as a friend, I would tell her no. If I were she, I would not want to go through the rigors of a yearlong campaign. She can go to the house and proudly say that she was Governor of Alabama. A 20-month tenure as governor is not an insignificant amount of time.
There are four significant thoroughbreds in the race, regardless of Ivey’s intentions.
PSC President, Twinkle Cavanaugh, 50, is popular and well positioned. She has won three statewide races.
Agriculture Commissioner, John McMillan, 75, has been at his important post for eight years. He has done an exemplary job. However, he cannot run again. He is well liked.
Huntsville Mayor, Tommy Battle, 61, will be a player in the governor’s race. He is the popular Mayor of Alabama’s economic crown jewel.
Jefferson County Commissioner, David Carrington, 69, could be a factor. He has some name recognition from being seen often in the all-important Birmingham media market. If he gets strong support from the Birmingham suburbs, he could be a dark horse.
Birmingham based evangelist, Scott Dawson, 49, might catch fire.
Tuscaloosa’s popular young mayor, Walt Maddox, may make the gubernatorial plunge as a Democrat.
We will see.
See you next week.