March 28, 2018
Every constitutional statewide office is up for election this year. Just like the governor’s office you can serve two consecutive four-year terms and then you are through.
Kay Ivey would have been term limited as Lt. Governor. She could not have run again for that post even though she ascended to governor last year. Young Boozer has served his two four-year term limit as Treasurer. Young has chosen to not run again for anything. John McMillan has exhausted his eight-years as Agriculture Commissioner. He is running for State Treasurer and is favored to win that post. John Merrill can run for another four-year term as Secretary of State, which is what he is doing. The same is true for State Auditor, Jim Zeigler.
The Attorney General’s office was vacated by Luther Strange when then Governor, Robert Bentley, appointed him to Jeff Sessions’ Senate Seat. With the vacancy in the Attorney General’s office, Bentley plucked an obscure former District Attorney named Steve Marshall to serve the remainder of Luther Strange’s term. Marshall is seeking election to a full term. However, he is not expected to fare well in a very competitive race for this coveted post. Marshall’s only claim to fame is that he was appointed to the post by Robert Bentley and that is not a very good calling card. A Republican is favored 60-to-40 in this Attorney General contest.
Former Attorney General, Troy King, is the favorite to win the GOP Primary and ultimately a four-year term. Name identification is a precious commodity in these secondary statewide offices. King’s name ID surpasses the rest of the field.
Alice Martin could give Troy King a run for his money. She is a veteran well qualified prosecutor who was the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama for the better part of a decade. Being from North Alabama gives her some invaluable name identification in her hometown of Florence, but more importantly in Birmingham.
Chess Bedsole, who is a Birmingham attorney, has roots in Mobile and was an integral part of the Trump campaign, could be a player. He will have to spend a good bit of personal money to get into the mix.
The winner of the GOP Primary will be favored. However, they will probably be met by a well-known Democratic name in November. Joseph Siegelman is running for AG as a Democrat. Young Siegelman, who is only 30, will be favored to win the Democratic nomination over another Birmingham Attorney, Chris Christie.
The office of Lt. Governor is currently vacant. This post does very little except wait for the Governor to die or be removed from office. Therefore, we have not been devastated by the vacancy.
If the Attorney General’s race is dependent upon name identification, the Lt. Governor’s post is doubly reliant on this precious commodity. There are three good people seeking the GOP mantle.
PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh, Mobile State Senator Rusty Glover, and Sand Mountain State Representative Will Ainsworth.
Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh is the prohibitive favorite in this race. She is sitting in the catbird’s seat and could win without a runoff. She has run and been elected several times statewide. She has also been head of the State Republican Party and has built a statewide organization. Her statewide name identification dwarfs her two opponents.
Will Ainsworth is said to have personal money that he is willing to invest. If he does, he could challenge Twinkle. Ainsworth has received the Farm Bureau endorsement, which is a coup.
Anyone who has ever met State Senator Rusty Glover likes him. If he could meet every voter in the state, most would vote for him. However, that would be hard for him to do.
The race for Agriculture Commissioner will be a quiet contest. Veteran State Senator Gerald Dial, who has represented East Alabama well for four decades is the favorite. He is facing Lowndesboro Mayor and lifetime farmer, Rick Pate, who garnered the Farm Bureau endorsement. Tracey Crane is a former FBI agent from Jefferson County. He may benefit from being first on the ballot, which is an advantage in down ballot races where none of the candidates are known.
John Merrill will easily win reelection as Secretary of State. He is probably the best retail politician in the state and maybe the most popular.
Jim Ziegler is running for a second four-year term as State Auditor. He makes it interesting around the Capitol.
It will be a fun year.
See you next week.
March 21, 2018
When talk turns to politics in Alabama, it usually leads to the Governor’s race. In Alabama politics the Governor’s office is the Brass Ring. It is talked about more than anything else around coffee clubs and kitchen tables from Sand Mountain to the Wiregrass. It is comparable to college football being the king of all sports in Alabama.
This infatuation with the Governor’s office is borne out in voting history. In most states the Presidential race sees the largest voter turnout, but that is not the case in Alabama where we have historically voted more heavily in gubernatorial years. Governor race years also have most of the important local offices up for grabs. “All politics is local.”
Kay Ivey enters the race as the favorite. She is the quasi incumbent having taken over the ship of state this time last year from beleaguered and tarnished Governor Dr. Robert Bentley. She probably would have gone to the house with her dog Bear with the plaudits of having served two terms as State Treasurer and two terms as Lt. Governor, which is not a bad legacy. However, now she can add Governor to her epitaph.
Kay has been around Alabama politics for quite a while. She has been thought of as vibrant over the years. However, recently her demeanor and appearance belies the fact that she is only 73. This premature aging becomes apparent when she gets out campaigning and speaking. This elderly resonance and cognizance will not detract from her being elected to a full term. However, if I were running her campaign, I would limit her appearances. They should keep her in the Governor’s office and use photos from a few years back and take credit for the upturn in the economy. Her support is a mile wide and an inch deep. A slip and fall could derail her train.
My first term in the Legislature was George Wallace’s last term as Governor and to say he was incoherent would be an understatement. He was on heavy doses of medication to alleviate the constant pain he had to endure from the bullet wounds from an assassination attempt while he was running for President in 1972. Therefore, Kay’s slowness does not deter her from being elected or from probably doing a better job than most governors we have had.
My observation over the past 50-years is that we really do not have to have a fulltime governor of Alabama. Big Jim Folsom was drunk his entire second term, George Wallace was on pain pills his last term and did not know where he was, Fob James was totally disinterested in being governor his second term and went duck hunting the whole time. They put Don Siegelman and Guy Hunt in jail. Poor ole Bentley fell in love at 72 like a little school boy and walked around with a glazed look in his eyes and sheepish grin, and lost all sense with reality. They kicked the poor old fellow to the curb. Kay came on board and seems to have steadied the ship of state.
Kay’s most daunting opponent is Huntsville mayor, Tommy Battle, who is actually responsible for the largest economic development announcement for the state in the past several years. The landing of the Toyota-Mazda plant in Huntsville several months ago was a real coup. Battle is 61 and has been Mayor of Huntsville for over 10 years. Some would argue that if he could do half of what he has done for Huntsville for the State of Alabama, he would be the best Governor Alabama has had in generations.
Mayor Battle has raised a lot of money and will come out of the vote rich Tennessee Valley with a strong base of support. He may give Kay a run for her money.
Birmingham Evangelist, Scott Dawson, is hoping to garner the evangelical vote. He is running a spirited campaign and could be a factor.
State Senator Bill Hightower from Mobile is somewhat of an aloof fellow, who will probably not be a factor.
Whoever wins the Republican nomination will be favored to win the race in November. The odds favor a Republican 57-to-43.
However, you have two formidable thoroughbreds vying for the Democratic nomination. Former Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb and Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox will fight it out for the nod in the June 5th Primary. There probably will not be a runoff. Either Cobb or Maddox will win outright depending on which way Alabama’s African American voters land. Most observers predict that Walt Maddox will prevail. He is 45 and has been Mayor of Tuscaloosa for 10 years.
Being mayor of a major city is probably the best training ground for governor.
See you next week.
March 14, 2018
Well, folks, the 2018 Political year has begun and all of the horses are in the chute. It is going to be a good year for horse races.
Perennially, the year of the governor’s race has been the best year for Alabama politics. Historically, most Alabamians have been more interested in who they elect as governor than who is president. However, we have really been more interested in who is sheriff than president. If the old adage that “All politics is local” applies in Tip O’Neil’s Massachusetts, it applies doubly in the Heart of Dixie.
Our forefathers, who wrote our now antiquated 1901 Constitution, must have perceived that our politics was localized because all of our races are on the ballot in gubernatorial years. This year we will not only elect a Governor, we will vote for a new Lt. Governor, new Attorney General, new Treasurer, new Agriculture Commissioner. Five seats on the State Supreme Court are on the ballot as well as three seats on the Court of Civil Appeals, and three places on the Court of Criminal Appeals.
Along with these State Court races, we have a good many of the Circuit Judges in the state running. All 68 Probate Judges are on the ballot. Lest some of you correct me that we only have 67 counties rather than 68, imperial Jefferson has two Probate Judges. That is not all folks, all 67 Sheriffs in the state are up for their four-year terms. Both political parties select their members to their local and state executive committees. Part of the state school board runs this year.
Last, but certainly not least, all of our legislative seats are up for election. Our constitution anoints the Legislature with a good amount of power. Probably more than the Executive and Judicial branches of state government.
Our Constitution was written and dictated by powerful agricultural Black Belt farming and Birmingham industrial interests. They wanted the power vested in the Legislative Branch. They orchestrated malapportioned representative bodies, and gave inordinate power to the Black Belt region.
The Legislature controls the purse strings of the state. Thus, the adage that “those that have the gold set the rules.” The most powerful organization then and still now is the Alabama Farmers Federation (ALFA). They will disburse a token amount to the governor’s race, but they will concentrate their interest and resources on legislative races. Most of the other special interests and organizations will follow suit and do the same.
Therefore, you will see most of the special interest money focused on the 35 state senate seats and 105 House of Representative places up this year. Incumbents are usually hard to beat. Indeed, most of the most entrenched incumbent State Senators and Representatives are unopposed or have taken opposition.
There are 10 Senate Seats and 22 House seats where the incumbent is not running. These races will be interesting to watch and expensive and you will have one or two incumbents get benched. One that will probably go down is first term State Senator Larry Stutts in the Northwestern corner of the state.
Speaking of incumbents, very few sitting members of Congress ever lose. No matter if they are Democratic or Republican. However, one of our seven congressional seats is seriously in play. Incumbent Republican Martha Roby will have her hands full holding on to her congressional seat for a fourth term. She has been considered very vulnerable since her race two-years ago. She is being challenged by four significant Republicans and two Democrats.
Bobby Bright, who held the seat for two-years as a Democrat, lost the seat to Roby in 2010 only because he insisted on running as a Democrat. He has seen the light and is running for his old seat as a Republican. He is a former mayor of Montgomery for 10-years along with his two years in Congress. He is a stellar campaigner, who has roots in the Wiregrass.
Also in the race will be Rich Hobson, who will be the heir apparent to the Roy Moore organization. Enterprise/Coffee County State Representative Barry Moore will do well in his home Wiregrass area. Newcomer Tommy Amason will get some votes in the River Region. The race for the 2nd District should be interesting.
The other members of our Congressional delegation are Republicans Bradley Byrne, Mike Rogers, Robert Aderholt, Gary Palmer, and Mo Brooks, who all have free rides or token opposition. Our only Democratic Congressperson is Terri Sewell, who has no opposition.
We will handicap the governor’s race next week.
March 07, 2018
As the June primaries for our statewide races get closer, there is a lot of media attention and stories written about the power being wielded by special interests, PACs and big money. They focus on the large amount of cash and influence being bet on the horses for governor and the legislature.
The Business Council of Alabama and ALFA are getting prepared to protect their friends and allies and punish their enemies. These two powerful and money laden special interests will be players in the 2018 horse races. Surprisingly, these two pro-business organizations are not riding the same horses in a good many races, especially statewide.
Quietly behind the scenes is another power in Alabama politics, Milton McGregor. You can bet he is playing ball. McGregor’s influence is felt in decision making races in the state from governor to every legislative race. McGregor is the E.F. Hutton of Alabama politics. When he speaks people listen, and more importantly when he speaks politicians listen. He also transcends party. He supports people who are his friends regardless of political party.
He epitomizes the golden rule of politics. He is loyal to his friends. In a day when some people’s word is no good, McGregor’s is solid as a rock. In politics and business your word is your bond, and that is why McGregor is revered and respected by the majority of Alabama’s political folks.
If McGregor tells someone he is their friend and will support them, they know they can take it to the bank. There is a political maxim used by longtime political veterans who have been in the Legislature for years and have fought major battles over controversial issues – the type of battles where you have to get a good toehold and stakeout your position and stay put. Thus, the saying is analogous to being in a monumental battle where you get into a foxhole to survive. Therefore, if a politician says about another that he is someone I would want in my foxhole in a war they are talking about someone they would trust with their life. That saying has been used to describe McGregor on more than one occasion.
Most people assume that Milton McGregor’s only interest is gaming. However, he is invested in the Nursing Home industry, the real estate business and farming. He has been successful in each of these endeavors.
McGregor grew up in the Wiregrass. His family was very politically connected, so he got his love for politics honestly. McGregor idolized his older brother, Tom, who was a political icon in the Wiregrass. Tom McGregor was instrumental in electing the legendary George Andrews to Congress. In fact, Tom McGregor got Andrews elected to Congress while he was still overseas in the Navy. Andrews was elected to Congress in the 1940’s and served in Congress more than 20 years, became a power and is the reason Fort Rucker is located in Ozark/Enterprise. The elder McGregor was Andrews’ right-hand man for more than 20 years.
Milton McGregor loves politics, but he loves his wife of over 50 years, Pat, more than life. He is considered one of the most loyal family men in the state. Unlike many of his so-called religious and pious detractors, there has never been a hint of personal scandal around Milton McGregor.
His generosity is unlimited. There are stories about his allowing politicians to ride in his luxury airplanes, and they have. The truth is he is doing it more out of friendship rather than for personal gain or favoritism. There are ten times more occasions where he has given free use of his planes with his pilots to shuttle an indigent cancer patient to a hospital to save their life.
Milton reached the point financially, long ago, where he does not need any more money. He plays politics for the love of it. He has given more than $300 million to charities over the years. That is 300 million dollars more than the Indian casinos have given Alabamians.
My mama always said that you can tell who a real gentleman is by the way he treats the person less fortunate. Milton McGregor epitomizes this quality. He treats the lowest janitor in his racetracks with the same sincerity, warmness and dignity that he does to the wealthiest people in America whom he rubs shoulders with every day.
See you next week.
February 28, 2018
The Alabama Legislature usually gets very little done during an election year session except passage of the budgets.
However, the Legislature may have to address issues pertaining to prison health care. A Federal judge has ruled that our prison mental health care is “horrendously inadequate.” This year the solution will probably be to simply add $30 to 50 million to the prison budget and kick the can down the road to the next quadrennium.
Our Medicaid agency funding is always a key issue. Medicaid now consumes more than a third of the General Fund budget. Using part of the BP Oil spill money will allow legislators to wait until next year to tackle this money eating monster.
Mental health or drug addiction issues will probably be pushed back until next year after elections, as will the gasoline tax issue. The gas tax was not been raised since 1992. The state’s gas tax is earmarked for roads and bridges. Business groups, county governments and legislative leaders, especially Speaker Mac McCutcheon and Legislators from Huntsville and other growth areas, are emphasizing the need for adequate transportation infrastructure.
The Trump administration is advocating for a national infrastructure initiative. If this comes to fruition in Washington, the state will have to act in order to match federal dollars.
The two budgets will not be difficult since both the General Fund and Education budgets are in better shape than normal, especially the Special Education Trust Fund budget. It is dependent on sales and income growth taxes and the economy is growing.
Teachers and state employees may receive a cost of living raise. Alabama state employees have not received a cost of living raise since 2009.
Speaking of the economy, Alabama has been blessed with two gigantic coups in the past few months. The landing of the new Toyota-Mazda plant near Huntsville was huge. In addition, the decision by the U.S. Defense Department to locate the F-35 lightning aircraft deployment to Maxwell/Gunter in Montgomery will translate into a significant boom to the River Region for years to come.
The January announcement that Alabama won the coveted Toyota-Mazda plant was tremendous. We beat out North Carolina for the $1.6 billion facility, which will be located at a Limestone County mega site adjacent to Huntsville.
Alabama currently has 57,000 residents employed in the automotive industry. Exports of Alabama made vehicles and parts total over $9 billion. We are now the number two state in America for automotive production. Community College Chancellor Jimmy Baker is moving in the right direction to prepare our young people for these opportunities in the state’s industrial expansion.
Huntsville mayor, Tommy Battle, battled mightily for the new automotive facility. He deserves kudos for the victory as does Montgomery mayor, Todd Strange, for landing the F-35 to Maxwell/Gunter. Our senior senator, Richard Shelby, was instrumental in both of these bonanzas behind the scenes.
Speaking of the legislature and their adjourning early for an election year, there will be 10 open Senate seats and 22 House seats with no incumbents. One of the most hotly contested state senate races will be in the Huntsville area. It will be an intra-party battle between Sam Givhan and Mary Scott Hunter. It is for the seat currently held by State Senator Bill Holtzclaw, who is not seeking reelection.
Ms. Hunter is a State School Board member, who is close to the BCA. Givhan is a lawyer and heads the Huntsville/Madison GOP. He has been endorsed by ALFA. It is fitting and proper that the Alabama Farmers Federation is backing young Sam Givhan. His grandfather was the legendary State Senator, Walter Givhan, who was a Black Belt planter and stalwart ally of the farmers.
State Representative, Mack Butler, is favored to win the Republican Gadsden area seat of retiring Senator Phil Williams.
The Wiregrass will see a battle royale between State Representative Donnie Chesteen and incumbent State Senator Harri Anne Smith.
The open Republican Senate seat of retiring State Senator Dick Brewbaker in Montgomery and Pike Road may be the best senate race in the state.
There are numerous powerful and popular incumbents, who will coast to reelection most with no opposition. That list includes Jabo Waggoner, Jimmy Holley, Jim McClendon, Cam Ward, Greg Reed, Steve Livingston, Clay Scofield, Shay Shelnutt, Clyde Chambliss, Billy Beasley, Bobby Singleton, Gerald Allen, Tom Whatley and Senate President, Del Marsh.
The leadership of the State Senate will return.
See you next week.
February 21, 2017
The 2018 legislative session will be short and sweet. It is an election year. Historically, during the last year of a quadrennium, the legislature convenes early and passes the budgets, then goes home and campaigns for reelection to another four year term.
Our forefathers, who wrote our 1901 Constitution must have been thinking the same thing because they designed for the fourth year of the quadrennium legislative session to start and end early. It is set by law to begin in early January, whereas it begins in February in most years. This year’s session began January 9 and can run through April 23. The consensus is that they will adjourn sine die earlier than the April deadline. Most observers believe that they will pass the budgets and be out of Montgomery by the end of March and home campaigning by April Fools’ Day.
The budgets will not be hard. The economy has picked up and the education budget, which is reliant on sales and income tax, is flush. Even the beleaguered General Fund is not in dire straits.
The House budget chairmen, Bill Poole, R-Tuscaloosa, and Steve Clouse, R-Ozark, walk around with a smile on their face.
The Senate budget chairmen, Trip Pittman, R-Baldwin and Arthur Orr, R-Decatur also seem happy. Pittman is a giant of a man who probably stands 6’8” tall and Orr is somewhat short. When they stand next to each other they look like Mutt and Jeff. It reminds me of a picture made in the 1950’s with Governor Big Jim Folsom and Congressman Frank Boykin standing next to each other. Boykin was extremely short and portly. He was around 5’2”. Big Jim was about 6’9”. It was quite an amazing photo taken at Boykins hunting lodge north of Mobile in Washington County. Both Big Jim and Boykin were inebriated. In defense of Pittman and Orr, they are both sober and serious about their business and do a good job.
Pittman has decided to stick to a campaign pledge he made when he first ran to serve only two terms, so he is not running again.
The other three budget chairmen are running and will be easily reelected if they even have opposition. Arthur Orr, Steve Clouse, and Bill Poole will all return to the legislature and will more than likely chair their chamber’s budget committees for another four years. All four of these budget leaders are smart and articulate. Clouse, Pittman and Poole all went to the University of Alabama for their college education.
These four chairmen write and control the budgets. In fact, most of the major decisions affecting the budgets are dictated by the chairmen. Most legislators do not really know the intricate details in the numbers. After the budgets come out of conference committee late in the session, it is “Katie bar the door.” They are ready to vote yes and go home.
However, there will be significant turnover in both chambers next year. There are about 10 of the 35 state senate seats open due to retirement or seeking other offices. There will be close to 22 of the 105 House of Representatives seats open. That is a significant turnover but it is not record breaking. Furthermore, almost all of the major leaders and decision makers in the legislature will be back for another four years in their same leadership positions.
The best action in senate races this year may be in the Montgomery/River Region area. Popular state Senator, Dick Brewbaker, chose to not seek reelection. There will be a spirited sprint to replace him. Also in Montgomery County, State Senator Quinton Ross was chosen to be President of Alabama State University. Veteran State Representative John Knight is favored to take that seat.
The primaries are June 5. I will keep you posted.
See you next week.
February 14, 2018
I have written about the legendary capitol reporters who use to cover Goat Hill. There was Bob Ingram of the Montgomery Advertiser, Al Fox of the Birmingham News, Hugh Sparrow of the Birmingham News, Rex Thomas of the Associated Press, Don Martin of UPI and Clarke Stallworth of the Birmingham Post Herald. A young cub reporter named Jim Bennett joined the Post Herald in 1961 and later had a distinguished career in Public Service. None of these legends is any longer with us.
Today’s capitol press corps also works hard, they stick with “just the facts” by conscientious research of their stories and leave out the speculations, “what-ifs”, opinion and political slants.
The men and women I knew in the Montgomery press corps then and today, may have personal views, but they all were and are vigilant in their work as professional journalists. They defended the freedom of the press and the right of the public to know the facts and events of public officials, their decisions and actions that will impact education, taxes and the economy.
Over the last few years, an ongoing debate has emerged as to whether reporting on political news is still just the responsibility of professional journalists and whether online bloggers can be a trusted source of news reporting.
The contemporary capitol press corps, like their colleagues of a bygone era, work hard to meet their deadlines. These professional reporters put in long hours by getting evenhanded quotes, verify pertinent facts and simply report an issue, controversy, or an event in an evenhanded way.
Online bloggers will do the same but add twists of innuendo, supposed behind the scenes reasons, and anonymous inferences. Often the online ‘journalists’ story will present a story but give contorted extraneous, often incendiary, perspectives which have no basis in reality.
Some suggest this is done to enhance the number of online “clicks”, make the story more salacious, attack someone’s reputation either directly or indirectly, make it cynical and infer insider deals and corruption – and you will get your clicks!
In many cases, stories are published by journalists only to be later “reinterpreted” by online bloggers with an editorial or political agenda.
Because of the cynicism and negativity that this new 24/7 online blogging creates, I have heard of many good men and women who would otherwise wish to give back to their communities by serving in public office essentially say – no thanks! They have spent a lifetime building up a good reputation in their communities and businesses. They cannot imagine where a pseudo-journalist, who is trying to build their reputation by the number of online clicks they get, can get away with attacking someone’s reputation in such a careless way.
We must make sure that individuals get the news and information they need to be informed, responsible citizens. Those sources can be from journalists, bloggers, and other digital platforms.
Let’s be vigilant about the freedom of press whether it is old fashion, hard-nosed journalism or 24/7 blogging. However, let’s also clearly delineate whether it is political opinion and gotcha stories whose sole purpose is to tarnish reputations and add to further public alienation from politics and cynicism. Opinions are great and important to public discourse but see them for what they are – opinions of one – do not try to mask those as ‘facts’.
Recently, the Alabama Political Reporter brought the documentary, “Atticus and the Architect”, to the Davis Theatre in Montgomery. A packed house watched the story of former governor, Don Siegelman’s persecution. The film left no doubt that Siegelman was prosecuted for political reasons.
Siegelman spent close to ten years in prison, unduly. It is one of the saddest stories I have witnessed in my lifetime of following Alabama politics. The travesty has not gone unnoticed by young potential leaders in the state.
I have the opportunity to get to know some brilliant, young Alabamians in my University classes on Alabama and Southern politics. Many of them are political science and prelaw majors. I will inquire as to whether they are interested in pursuing a political career. Most will tell me that they would never seek political office, not even a judgeship. Invariably, they will point to the Siegelman prosecution as one of their reasons for not being a part of the political process. They realize that their lives could be ruined by political persecution.
See you next week.
February 7, 2018
A few weeks back my column illuminated the career and influence attained by our senior U.S. Senator Richard Shelby. In the column and in my book, “Six Decades of Alabama Political Stories,” I reference the fact that our current senior senator will be regarded as one of Alabama’s greatest U.S. Senators. I consider Lister Hill, John Sparkman, and Richard Shelby in that triumvirate. However, history more than likely will reveal that Shelby is eclipsing Hill and Sparkman in the annals of senatorial lore.
Shelby is chairman of the Senate Rules Committee. In his illustrious 31-year tenure in the Senate he has chaired the Senate Intelligence Committee and the Senate Banking Committee, which in itself parallels the achievements of Hill and Sparkman. However, Richard Shelby is next in line to take over the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee.
Therefore, it is almost comical that a few right-wing fringe members of the state Republican Party along with some kook from Texas are promising some resolution to censure Senator Shelby for not voting for Roy Moore in last year’s election. If these folks had even walking around political sense they would be promoting a ticker tape parade for Shelby.
I would suggest that Richard Shelby could care less what some members of the Alabama Republican Party say about his vote in the recent election. Members of political party organizations have an inflated opinion of their influence in politics and public policy. Being a member of a state political party has no more effect on politics than being president of the local Civitan Club. Their primary function is to set the Primary dates.
Therefore, when these political party operatives get together to debate this benign resolution on February 24, they may imagine that it matters what they do. However, you can be assured that nobody cares, much less Shelby. Resolutions passed in political party gatherings have no effect or relevance.
It is very doubtful that this proposed resolution will see the light of day. Most people who are political party operatives are logical folks and would not want to offend or insult Senator Shelby. He is the Republican Party of Alabama in the eyes of the nation. If it were to pass, he would graciously ignore it and hold no grudges.
When Kay Ivey became governor last year, the first thing she did was to reverse the decision of Governor Robert Bentley on the date of the election for Jeff Sessions’ senate seat. Bentley had set it for this year when everything runs anyway. Ivey decided that it should be held forthwith and that a Special Election would be in 2017. However, this Special Election costs the beleaguered State General Fund $11 million. If it were held this year it would have cost the state zero – we were voting anyway.
This $11 million is nothing to sneeze at when it comes to state revenue. This aspect caught the eye of House Ways and Means chairman, Steve Clouse, R-Ozark. Clouse, who is a wise steward of the state’s coffers, and is tasked with balancing the budget, has set out to rectify and clarify when any future election for a Senate Seat shall be held. He has offered a bill to set the dates and clarify “forthwith.” Clouse’s Bill says that the election will be held at the next General election. His legislation has already passed the House and is awaiting action in the State Senate.
Steve Clouse is a popular Wiregrass legislator who epitomizes integrity and espouses fiscal conservatism. While speaking of popularity in the Wiregrass, Governor Kay Ivey did a good day’s work when she picked Dothan Circuit Judge, Brad Mendheim, to fill the vacancy on the State Supreme Court. It is appropriate that she appointed Mendheim, a Wiregrass judge, to fill the seat of Justice Glen Murdock, another Wiregrass native.
I have never seen or heard of anybody more respected in their hometown than 51-year-old Brad Mendheim is in Dothan. He was born and raised in Houston County and has been a Circuit Judge for 10 years. He is a deacon in the First Baptist Church of Dothan. He graduated in a stellar graduating class, which included highly respected Dr. Russ Holman who heads the largest radiology group in the state in Birmingham.
See you next week.
January 31, 2018
This political year of 2018 may very well be the year of the woman in Alabama politics. In Alabama’s 200 year history, only one woman has been elected governor. Lurleen Wallace won in 1966. Only two women have served as governor, Governor Lurleen and our current governor, Kay Ivey. It may be a historic year.
Sue Bell Cobb, the former Alabama State Supreme Court Chief Justice, and the first woman to hold that position, is hoping to be able to be the Democratic standard-bearer. She was elected Chief Justice in 2006, in a very expensive, high profiled battle with Republican Drayton Nabors. She had been a District Court Judge in her native Conecuh County for a long time before running statewide. She was elected to a six year term as Chief Justice in 2006, but quit after four years, inexplicably.
Cobb, 61, is predicting that it will be an all female gubernatorial showdown. She believes that she will be the Democratic nominee and that Governor Kay Ivey will carry the Republican banner into battle. She says, “That’s never happened and my prediction is that is what it will exactly be.”
However, first things first. Judge Cobb has to win the Democratic nomination. She is not the favorite in that primary. Tuscaloosa mayor, Walt Maddox, is the early favorite to win the Democratic nomination.
Most political insiders suggest that Maddox is expected to get the overwhelming support of African American voters. The black vote makes up the bulk and majority of Democratic Primary voters in the state. This is no longer a monolithic vote. However, it tends to gravitate to one candidate in a primary. The few white voters who participate in the Democratic primary are young and they can more readily identify with Maddox who is 45.
In addition, there is some disillusionment among Democratic voters that Cobb quit her term midway as Chief Justice and allowed Republican Governor Robert Bentley to appoint a replacement. He, of course, appointed a Republican. She was the only Democrat on the Supreme Court. Roy Moore won the seat of Chief Justice in 2012.
Other Democratic partisans were dismayed that Cobb said she supported Donald Trump’s selection of Jeff Sessions for Attorney General. It may be perceived that her day has passed.
Kay Ivey appeared to be headed for the house and her day may have passed when out of the blue Bentley resigns and she is plucked out of the obscurity of the Lt. Governor’s office and thrust into the governorship. She seems like a grandmother who sticks to her knitting and steadies the Ship of State, which has gone through stormy waters the past four years. Kay Ivey may indeed make it to the dance as the Republican nominee in November. She is in the catbird’s seat and favored to win the GOP Primary.
However, she created a couple of stumbling blocks during the 2017 Senate election year that may thwart her reelection. Some GOP establishment stalwarts say that her changing the Senate election from 2018 to 2017 threw Luther Strange, their candidate, under the bus and gave the nomination to Roy Moore, which led to losing the seat to a Democrat. Her move also cost the state’s beleaguered General Fund $10 to $15 million. Some suburban women became disenchanted with her with she said she had no reason to not believe the women who accused Roy Moore of assaulting them as teenagers, yet she was still going to vote for him because he was a Republican. These two actions are only political stumbling blocks, not roadblocks.
Therefore, what I see as a possibility is not an all female race for governor, but a possible triumvirate of females being sworn into the top three constitutional offices next January. You could see Kay Ivey sworn into the Governor’s office, Twinkle Cavanaugh sworn in as Lt. Governor, and Alice Martin sworn in as Attorney General. All three are Republicans.
The Republican nominee goes into the general election with a 60/40 probability of winning. Currently, Kay Ivey is the favorite in the governor’s race. Twinkle is the favorite in the Lt. Governor’s race. Alice Martin or Troy King is favored in the Attorney General’s race.
If you made me bet right now, I would bet that Alabama would at least have a governor and Lt. Governor that are women. That may be the story of the year in Alabama politics in 2018.
See you next week.
January 24, 2017
As the 2018 state elections begin, let’s take one last look at the 2017 Special Election to fill the remaining three years of Jeff Sessions’ six-year term which, by the way, comes up in two years in 2020.
It is assumed by most astute political observers that the winner, Democrat Doug Jones, cannot win election to a full term in 2020, simply because he is a Democrat. I am not ready to write Doug Jones off so quickly. I would contend that Jones would not be a cupcake to take on after two to three years on the job. Doug Jones knows what he is doing. He is a seasoned political veteran that will hit the ground running in Washington. I submit that he will be a far superior senator for Alabama than Roy Moore.
The Ten Commandments Judge’s mission in the Senate would be as an obstructionist and the voice of the ultra right wing zealots of not only Alabama but of the nation. This would not do Alabama any good as far as having a senator who is helpful to the state. In addition, his extreme views and statements, along with the allegations thrown at him during the campaign, made him a horrendous caricature nationwide. We would have been the brunt of ridicule on all late night and daytime news shows for three years.
Moore had become not only a joke but also a bad image for the state. We would have actually been better off not to have had a second senate seat if Moore was in it. We would have been better served to have only one senator, Richard Shelby. On the other hand, Senator Doug Jones, will strive to be an effective senator in the mold of Sen. Shelby. He will work with Shelby to bring home the bacon. Sen. Shelby knew this and that is why he refused to vote for Moore.
However, Sen. Jones will still have very little wiggle room in preparation for 2020. He will organize with Chuck Schumer, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and all of the very liberal East and West coast senators. He is in the same boat with them on social issues like abortion, immigration, and gay/lesbian and transgender issues. If these issues come to the forefront in the form of Supreme Court nominees, Jones may be caught between a rock and a hard place. If he can avoid these litmus test issues that illuminate the fact that he is a national Democrat from a ruby red Republican state, he could possibly survive, especially if there is a contentious GOP Primary with six or more Republican thoroughbreds wrangling for the opportunity to take Jones out in a 2020 battle royale.
This field of proven conservative Republican stalwarts could beat each other up in the primary. Therefore, they arrive at the dance beat up and broke facing Jones who probably has not faced a primary opponent, and is well financed with national Democratic senatorial money, running as an incumbent.
The Doug Jones victory was a perfect storm that cannot be perfectly replicated by Democratic gubernatorial aspirants Walt Maddox or Sue Bell Cobb.
First of all, the national money will not be available in an Alabama governor’s race, in a year where 33 U.S. Senate races are in play, as it was in last year’s race. We were the only show in the country and you had a polarizing figure to energize the national liberal base. There was also an overwhelming 6-to-1 financial advantage that provided resources to turn out the Democratic base. In addition, probably never again will any party have the opportunity to run against a candidate with a 70 percent negative approval rating, who has no money and runs a modern day 2017 campaign similar to one run in 1954 out of the back of a pickup truck.
On the other hand, the Democratic campaign was state of the art. Due to Moore and this being the only senate race in the country, Doug Jones’ campaign was run by the brightest Democratic pollsters and media consultants in the world. They energized millennials and the LGBTQ community to vote in record numbers, along with the amazing unparalleled turnout of African American voters.
It was an anomaly and a razor thin victory. However, it shows that it can be done in the “Heart of Dixie.”
A Democrat won a statewide race, and a U.S. Senate race at that. It gives credence to a Democratic gubernatorial campaign this year.
See you next week.