November 27, 2019 - Players are in Place for Next Year’s Election
Qualifying has ended and the players are in place for next year’s elections. It is a Presidential year. It is up in the air as to who will be the Democratic presidential standard bearer. President Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee.
It is a foregone conclusion that Trump will carry Alabama next November. In fact, it would be safe to say that all statewide Republican candidates on the ballot will win next year. When it comes to national and statewide contests in the Heart of Dixie, we are a one state party. If you want to win a state or U.S. Senate race in Alabama, you have to run as a Republican.
Therefore, winning next year’s March 3 Primary is tantamount to election in the state. That means the election is less than four months away. There will be a little holiday lull between now and the first of the year. However, when January and the new year begin campaigns will begin going full steam ahead.
The premier contest will be for the U.S. Senate and two open Congressional seats. I will address those federal races in a separate column next week.
The most important positions, along with the federal races, will be for posts on our state Supreme Court and our Courts of Civil and Criminal Appeals. There are two seats on each of these three tribunals on the ballot. Most of the judges up for election are incumbents and either have no opposition or only token opponents.
Former Houston County Circuit Judge, Brad Mendheim, will win election to a full six-year term on the State Supreme Court without opposition. The very popular presiding judge for the Court of Civil Appeals, Bill Thompson, will be anointed without opposition for another six year stint. Bill has done an outstanding job on this court for decades. He even looks like a judge.
Judge Beth Kellum has done an exemplary job in her post on the State Court of Criminal Appeals. She probably will be reelected to another term. She has two opponents – Jill Ganus and Will Smith. It does not hurt that she was born and raised in Tuscaloosa.
The Druid City seems to have an inordinate number of statewide officeholders. Tuscaloosa has a lot of voters, but it seems to be more than that. It is as though the Black Warrior River spawns them.
Judge Mary Windom of Mobile will more than likely win another six year term on the Court of Criminal Appeals. She has an opponent Melvin Hasting.
There will be a contested race for a place on the State Court of Civil Appeals. The very popular Scott Donaldson is retiring. By the way, Scott is from Tuscaloosa and served on the bench there before being elected to the State Court. There will be a spirited race for his seat between Shelby County State Representative Matt Fridy and Birmingham Lawyer Phillip Bahakel.
The most hotly contested race on the March 3 Primary ballot will be between State Senator Cam Ward and incumbent Greg Shaw for Shaw’s seat on the State Supreme Court. Shaw has done a good job on the High Tribunal and is considered a solid conservative, pro-business judge. Ward has been on a fast and successful track in the state legislature. He hails from Shelby County and has been a high-profile State Senator for several terms. He is 48 and a very gregarious and tenacious campaigner.
It is doubtful that the business groups that primarily fund these State Supreme Court races will abandon the solid but quiet Shaw. However, these same groups may be reluctant to not cover their bets with Ward. In addition, the plaintiff trial lawyers have found a way to funnel money quietly to these races.
Popular PSC President, Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh, will be reelected. Twinkle is known and respected as one of Alabama’s most conservative leaders. She has a token opponent who is part of a left wing California-like liberal group.
Huntsville’s outstanding mayor, Tommy Battle, will be up for reelection in that city’s August, 2020 mayoral race. Battle will be a prohibitive favorite to win reelection to a third term.
Battle ran a respectable second to Kay Ivey in the 2018 Governor’s race. During that contest I asked him why in the world would he trade being mayor of Huntsville for being Governor of Alabama? Huntsville is poised to be the fastest growing and most prosperous metropolitan area, not only in Alabama and the South, but in the nation during the next decade.
See you next week.
November 20, 2019 - John McMillan – A Good Man as State Treasurer
Alabama is in good hands with John McMillan. A good man is in the job of State Treasurer of Alabama for the third straight quadrennium.
Young Boozer served two successive four-year terms from 2010-2018. Mr. Boozer did an excellent job as Treasurer. He was perfect for the job. He had been a successful banker. He ran for and did the job for the right reason, not for political gain or prestige, but to do a good job as Alabama’s treasurer. Some folks thought Young Boozer would make a good choice for higher statewide office. However, he and his wife, Sally, opted to enjoy a relaxed life.
John McMillan is now doing the job of State Treasurer for the very same reason. He, too, could go to the house and enjoy his life but he wants to serve the state he loves.
Before being elected State Treasurer, John served two consecutive successful four-year terms as Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries for Alabama from 2010 to 2018. The jobs of Agriculture Commissioner and Treasurer, like all state constitutional offices, are term limited for two four-year terms.
John McMillan and his wife Kathryn will eventually return to Baldwin County. McMillian’s family roots grow deep in Baldwin County soil. His family were some of the original settlers of the area before the Civil War. They have been in the timber business around Bay Minette for close to a century.
Interestingly, Congressman Bradley Byrne, who currently represents Baldwin County has deep roots in Baldwin County. His folks settled on the Eastern Shore around Fairhope before Alabama was a State in 1819. In fact, John McMillan and Bradley Byrne are cousins.
John McMillan grew up in the rural community of Stockton near Bay Minette in Baldwin. He grew up in the county when it was primarily agricultural and was known as Alabama’s potato growing county. He graduated from Baldwin County High School. He must have been a pretty good student because after high school he attended and graduated from the prestigious Rhodes College in Memphis where he earned a BA in Economics.
McMillan was appointed to the Baldwin County Commission by Governor Albert Brewer. After serving on the County Commission, McMillan was elected to the state legislature. He served two terms in the House of Representatives.
After the legislature, he was chosen to head the Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. During his time as Commissioner of Conservation, McMillan was instrumental in the creation of the Alabama Trust Fund which preserves revenue from offshore oil and gas leases.
He then spent 20 successful years as Executive Vice President of the Alabama Forestry Association. He was elected Agriculture Commissioner in 2010 and reelected in 2014. As Ag Commissioner, he oversaw one of the largest departments of state government. He served as President of the Southern Association of State Departments of Agriculture and also on the National Board of Agriculture departments.
As is fitting for a former conservation director, McMillan loves hunting, fishing and other outdoor activities. However, he mostly loves his family. He and Kathryn have two sons, William and Murphy. They also have two grandchildren.
His most famous relative is his twin brother, Steve McMillan. Representative Steve McMillan took his twin’s seat in the House from Baldwin County in 1980 when John was appointed Conservation Director. Steve McMillan has served with distinction in that Baldwin County House seat for over 38 years. He has been elected to nine four-year terms. Steve is only superseded in Alabama history for legislative longevity by Pete Turnham, Alvin Holmes, Ron Johnson and James Buskey.
You can bet your bottom dollar that your money will be safe with John McMillan as Treasurer. However, that has not always been the case with Treasurers in Alabama history. In March of 1887, Alabama State Treasurer, Issac “Honest Ike” Vincent, absconded with more than $225,000 in State funds and fled the state. This was quite a sum of money in 1887.
Our fugitive State Treasurer was arrested on a train in Big Sandy, Texas and returned to Alabama for trial. Vincent was tried and convicted of embezzlement and sentenced to 15 years in the state penitentiary.
See you next week.
November 13, 2019 - State Legislature Not Very Good Stepping Stone
Early speculation on the 2020 U.S. Senate race had state senator, Del Marsh, listed as a potential GOP aspirant. He had considered making a plunge into the Special Election contest for Jeff Sessions’ seat in 2017 but opted out.
Most astute observers never thought he would ultimately pull the trigger then, or this year. Unlike others, who have run and won statewide, Marsh is essentially unknown outside of the Capitol and is known only around his Anniston state senate district. His best asset was probably that he had his own money to spend rather than his state senate influence.
His name appeared on a Mason-Dixon poll conducted in April with other potential candidates, including Roy Moore, Bradley Byrne, Mo Brooks and Gary Palmer. The name identification of these four ranged from 90 percent for Moore to 40 percent for Palmer. Marsh had three percent name identification. Soon after, he said that he was not going to run.
It was a wise decision. He could not have won and if he could he would not be as powerful as he is in his current position. As President Pro Tem of the Alabama State Senate, he is very influential. In fact, he has more influence over public policy in his current post than he would as a Freshman U.S. Senator, especially a 64-year old freshman.
Senator Marsh’s abysmal name identification number is no surprise. My observation over the years is that legislators and state senators, regardless of how powerful they are in Montgomery, are unknown statewide. The bottom line is the Legislature is not a good stepping stone to higher elected office, especially the U.S. Senate.
A very similar scenario to Marsh’s occurred years ago. Then Speaker of the House, Seth Hammett of Andalusia, was contemplating running for governor. Like Marsh, Seth’s role as Speaker made him the most powerful of all 140 House and Senate members. Seth was well liked and very respected among his legislative colleagues. He was and still is beloved in his native Covington County.
Well, Seth’s first due diligence was to conduct a Benchmark poll. He commissioned one of the best pollsters in the south and awaited the results. When it came back, the mild mannered, respected Speaker of the Alabama House had three percent name identification. Seth’s potential opponent, Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley, had 78 percent name ID. Seth chose not to run for governor but remain as Speaker.
My good friend, Mac McArthur, has been the head of the Alabama State Employees Association for over two decades. Not many folks know this, but Mac is a lawyer and was a prosecutor as a young man. He also was Director of the State Ethics Commission for a few years before moving to his current post at ASEA.
Ole Mac had political aspirations as a young prosecutor. He really wanted to be Attorney General of Alabama. While he was Ethics Chairman he was planning to run for Attorney General. Like Seth, Mac’s first step was to get a Benchmark name identification poll. He hired the best pollster in the state. Mac was confident that he had some significant name identification because he had just gotten some good statewide publicity for some high-profile prosecutions as Ethics Chairman.
The pollster called Mac soon after the poll and said, “Come on over.” Mac rushed over to his office and anxiously awaited the results. His pollster began by telling Mac he had good news. Mac you have almost six percent statewide name identification. Mac’s despondent reply was, “The only thing good I see in that is I can run through Winn Dixie butt naked and nobody will know who I am.”
Alabama’s greatest and most legendary political icon, George C. Wallace, knew the importance of name identification. During Wallace’s early years the place to stay for all legislators and powerbrokers was the old Exchange Hotel in downtown Montgomery. Wallace would of course stay there during the legislative sessions as a young legislator from Barbour County. It was a hotbed of politics and many a political deal was consummated on the premises of the Exchange. Wallace would pay the Bellhop a tip every day to walk through the lobby and sing out loudly, “George Wallace, calling George Wallace.”
Wallace would use the same gimmick at the University of Alabama football games in the Fall. He would get the PA announcer to call out his name, “Calling George Wallace.” Name identification is a vital ingredient for success in politics. The Master of Alabama politics knew this fact of political life.
See you next week.
November 6, 2019 - The Story of Dr. David Bronner, RSA, Robert Trent Jones Golf Courses
Dr. David Bronner has marked his place in Alabama political and governmental history. He has headed the revered Retirement Systems of Alabama Pension Funds for 45 years. When Bronner took his present job with RSA, the Retirement Systems had approximately $500 million of funds. Today RSA has approximately $40 billion in investments making our RSA the 50th largest public pension fund in the world.
Alabama public employees will swear by, standup for and place on a golden pedestal David Bronner. They credit him with securing their retirement years with a solid foundation. Indeed he has. Our Alabama Public Employee and Teacher Retirement Systems are financially sound and the envy of most other states.
Bronner was born in Iowa and received his elementary and high school education in Minnesota. He came to Alabama to study law. He earned his Law Degree and PHD from the University of Alabama in 1972. Shortly after graduation, he became Assistant Dean of the Law School at the University of Alabama. Two years later at age 29 he became head of the Alabama Retirement Systems.
Today, 46 years later, Bronner is a youthful looking 74 with plenty of vigor and probably no plans to retire. He loves golf and good cigars. When you have a conversation with him it is an experience you will never forget. He is extremely vivacious and quick witted. There is no mistaking that you are talking with someone very intelligent. He has digested your words almost before they are out of your mouth and will reply immediately with a succinct response that appears as though he has given it 15 minutes of thought. Of course, that may be because we native Alabamians talk a little slower than he does.
The Retirement System of Alabama has contributed a great deal to the state’s economy over the last 45 years. The RSA manages pensions for 358,000 public teachers and public employees. At the end of 2018, Dr. Bronner and RSA had $43.8 billion under management.
However, the greatest legacy that Dr. Bronner may enjoy is his creation of Alabama’s Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail. This idea generated a profit for RSA in the first years. The brilliance of the Golf Trail is not only the profits the Trail generates for the RSA, but the peripheral boost to our state’s economy.
The Trail has enhanced the image of Alabama. It has also benefitted the state’s attractiveness for corporate recruitment. The economical benefits and prestige that it brings to our state are exponential.
The courses have made Alabama a tourist destination. It brings well-heeled northern golfers to our state for week long stays who spend untold amounts of money in our hotels and restaurants. Snowbird golf enthusiasts are locked out of their courses six to seven months of the year. They journey to warm climes of the Heart of Dixie to play these world class courses. They might look at the adjoining hole and see Dr. Bronner playing, chomping on his ever-present cigar.
The Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail’s first seven sites were constructed in Birmingham, Mobile, Huntsville, Opelika-Auburn, Dothan and Greenville. These seven were completed from 1990 to 1994. The Prattville site opened and the Lakewood Club courses in Point Clear joined the Trail in 1999. The premier Hoover site at Ross Bridge appeared in 2005.
RSA resort hotels were developed in affiliation with six of the Golf Trail complexes. The Grand Hotel is adjacent to the Lakewood Club in Point Clear. The RSA Battle House Renaissance Hotel and Riverview are near Magnolia Grove in Mobile. The Marriott at Capitol Hill in Prattville and the Montgomery Renaissance serve Capitol Hill in Prattville. The Shoals Marriott in Florence serves the Shoals complex in Sheffield. The Marriott Resort at Grand National in Opelika serves the Opelika-Auburn course.
The crown jewel may very well be the Ross Bridge course and Ross Bridge Renaissance Resort Hotel and Spa. This Hoover location attracts national conventions and has spawned one of the premier residential neighborhoods in the state. Ross Bridge is home to a good many of the young physicians and medical specialists from UAB.
Dr. Mark Fagan has authored a wonderful book on Alabama’s Golf Trail, Dr. Bronner and the RSA. It is entitled, “Alabama’s Public Pension Fund Growth and Economic Expansions since 1972.”
See you next week.
October 30, 2019 - Light Being Shown on Poarch Creek Gambling Casino Monopoly in the Heart of Dixie
Recently an organization was formed with the name, “Poarch Creek Accountability Now.” This nonprofit group is headed by former 40-year veteran State Senator Gerald Dial, who retired from the Alabama Senate in 2018.
The stated goal of this nonprofit group is to spread the true and accurate information about the Poarch Band of Creek Indians and their gaming revenue and expenditures. Dial says it is time to point out the unfairness of their operation. “They make billions upon billions in this state and pay zero in taxes,” said Dial. He said, and rightfully so, “that’s not right.”
Dial continued, “We just want to make sure that the general public is aware of the true facts about the Poarch Creek Indians. The PCI Gaming syndicate is using the vast revenues collected in Alabama on nontaxed gambling and using these Alabama dollars to purchase the Sands Casino in Pennsylvania for $1.3 billion and then the Alabama tribe would begin a $250 million renovation of their Pennsylvania Casino.”
Dial says that while the Alabama Tribe makes this out-of-state $1.5 billion investment with Alabama money, the Pennsylvania casino will be taxed at a 16% onsite gaming fee and 54% of online profits.
It is no secret that during the past legislative session, the PCI lobbyists worked to kill a Lottery Bill that would have allowed Alabamians the right to vote on a lottery. It is good that Senator Dial and fair-minded Alabamians are shedding light on this unfair and some say un-American advantage and gravy train that the Poarch Creek casinos have acquired in our state. It is not only unfair, it is dangerous. The unimageable profits being accumulated by these shadowy operations allow them to contribute large amounts of campaign money to legislative candidates, mostly incumbents, which in turn allows them to accumulate immense power politically. This is evidenced by their ability to kill Alabamian’s right to vote to have a simple lottery.
These Indian Casinos were created by the Abramnoff and Scanlan corruption scandal. Several years ago these two bagmen came to Washington with a Brinks truck full of money. Congressional testimony indicates that it came from Las Vegas as their way of spreading these casinos nationwide. Scanlan and Abramnoff went to jail, but the Indian casinos were granted asylum and sanctified their once native lands to open casino gambling operations.
They took full advantage of those new federal laws here in Alabama. Most of the land in the state prior to our statehood was occupied by the Creek Indians. History reveals that our Creek Indians were done wrong. What Andrew Jackson “Ole Hickory” did to the Creek Indians in Alabama was inhumane to say the least, and most would call it a barbaric massacre. How those few who survived his sword made it to Oklahoma was a miracle.
However, the Creeks were not the only ones slaughtered by “Ole Hickory” during that time frame. As soon as he got through with the Creeks, he traversed down the Mississippi River and did it tenfold to the British Red Coats in New Orleans in 1812. There were very few survivors of Jackson’s savage victory over the British. He made sure that the Indians and the British knew that this was the land of some tough new American frontiersmen and they were led by one tough as nails, take no prisoners leader.
There are some folks with British ancestry who should be asking for some reparations after what Jackson did to their ancestors. The Creek Indians left in Alabama got their reparations from the Abramnoff/Scanlan Federal Deal. With that grant came some inherent federal protection from taxation along with their casinos. However, states like Alabama should not allow them to have a monopoly.
Let me give some legislators an idea on how to extract a little well-deserved penance from these greedy PCI gaming operations in the state. My guess is that the roads leading to their shiny, gold plated, gambling palaces are state roads. What would be wrong with making those roads toll roads and charge a $100 fee to pass through to the casino and prohibit any other road being built parallel to our state toll road?
I bet that toll fee would give us the same amount of revenue as a lottery. You can bet your bottom dollar that Huey Long or Lyndon Johnson would take that approach to those arrogant, money grubbing, power mongering casinos.
See you next week.
October 23, 2019 - Rick Pate, Will Ainsworth, Jack Hawkins
We have two men who were elected to statewide constitutional offices last year, who seem to be doing a good job. They are both working quietly and diligently in their new posts.
Rick Pate was sworn in as the state’s Agriculture Commissioner in January. He followed John McMillan, who served eight years as Agriculture Commissioner. McMillan took a nonpolitical, hardworking, business-like approach. Pate seems to have taken a page from his friend McMillan and appears to have the same non-flamboyant, business-like approach to the job.
Rick Pate is a lifetime farmer who seems to have been perfectly scripted for the role of Agriculture Commissioner of Alabama. My observation of Alabama politics is that Alabamians have a way of ascertaining who the real farmer is in the Ag Commission race. Even urban voters tend to select the man who is an agri-business man.
Rick Pate fits that bill as an agri-business man. He wants to do a good job as Commissioner of Agriculture and not appear to have his eye on a higher office or in other words, use the job as a stepping stone. He will more than likely serve two four-year terms managing this large and important department and retire to the farm.
Rick Pate was born 62 years ago, and grew up working on his family’s cattle and poultry operations in Lowndes County. With his roots in agriculture, it was a natural choice for him to attend Auburn University. He received his Bachelor’s Degree in Ag and Horticulture from Auburn in 1978.
Pate started and ran a successful landscape company in Montgomery for 36 years. However, he never left his beloved home in Lowndes County. In addition to landscaping, he has a purebred Charolais cattle operation. Rick was mayor of Lowndesboro for 14 years before being elected Agriculture Commissioner. He was on the Town Council for eight years prior to becoming mayor. He has been active in the state Republican Party for decades.
Having grown up on a farm, running a business and serving as mayor of a small town, has given Pate a unique perspective to the office of Agriculture Commissioner. He has a genuine concern for the future of agriculture and the people of Alabama.
Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth is a man with a different mission. Unlike Pate, he wants to and will seek higher office. In fact, if Kay Ivey does not run for reelection in 2022, young Will Ainsworth will be a candidate for governor of Alabama, and my suggestion would be do not bet against him being elected governor.
Ainsworth is young. At 38 years old, he is one of the youngest Lt. Governors in state history. He was born and raised in Albertville in picturesque Marshall County, to parents who were self-made financially successful folks. He attended Marshall County public schools and then went on to Auburn University. He graduated from Auburn with a degree in marketing. He owns and operates the Tennessee Valley Hunting and Fishing Expo which draws more than 20,000 attendees each year.
Prior to entering public service, he worked as a youth pastor at Albertville’s Grace Baptist Church and was a co-founder of Dream Ranch, one of the premier hunting and fishing lodges in the United States. At age 33, he was elected to the Alabama House of Representatives where he served for one term from 2014 to 2018, prior to his election as Lt. Governor in November 2018.
After a close Republican Primary victory, he won overwhelmingly in the General Election. He actually received the most votes of any candidate for constitutional office on the General Election ballot.
Ainsworth has won the respect and admiration of many of the veteran state senators for his quick grasp of the intricate senate rules. He presides effectively and fairly. State Senator Jabo Waggoner, (R-Vestavia), who has been observing lieutenant governors for over three decades, recently said, “Will Ainsworth has learned the rules and presided better than any lieutenant governor I can remember.” These same sentiments were echoed by other veteran state senators.
Will Ainsworth has a bright future in Alabama politics. It also does not hurt that he hails from the vote rich and growth centered Tennessee Valley Huntsville metro area of the state.
Troy University Chancellor Jack Hawkins, Jr. has recently celebrated 30 years as presiding officer of the Troy University System. He has done a yeoman’s job over those three decades. He has left an indelible legacy in Alabama higher education history. He is the longest serving chancellor of a major university in not only Alabama but the entire nation.
See you next week.
October 16, 2019 - Congressman Jack Edwards – An Alabama Legend Passes Away
One of the most outstanding congressmen and leaders in Alabama history is Congressman Jack Edwards. He passed away three weeks ago at age 91.
He was born with the full name of William Jackson Edwards, III. However, he was always known as Jack. Although he was renowned as a Mobile/Baldwin County Congressman, he was born and raised in Jefferson County. He received his early education in public schools and graduated high school in Homewood.
He enlisted in the U.S. Marine Corps in 1946. He continued his military service from 1946 through 1951, and served during the Korean War.
Following his military service, he attended the University of Alabama where he earned his Bachelor’s degree in 1952 and law degree two years later. While at the University he was elected President of the Student Government Association. He was also a member of Kappa Alpha fraternity and Omicron Delta Kappa national leadership honor society. After law school, he taught business law at the University and married Jolane Vander Sys. They were married for 66 years and have two children.
In 1956 he moved to Point Clear in Mobile and began the practice of law in Mobile County. Eight years later he was elected Congressman from the famous first district which is primarily comprised of Mobile and Baldwin counties.
Edwards went to Congress in what is referred to as the Southern Goldwater Landslide. The South voted overwhelmingly for the Republican nominee, Barry Goldwater. In fact, the South pulled the straight Republican lever that day and has never looked back. Alabama and five other Deep South states changed parties in November of 1964.
A Republican presidential candidate had not carried Alabama in over 70 years, and we had also had no Republican congressmen in those 70-plus years. Prior to that fateful November, 1964 day, we had eight congressmen. All eight were Democrats. Five of the eight were wiped out by Republicans that day. Those new GOP Congressmen went on to distinguished careers. Along with Jack Edwards, Bill Dickinson was elected from Montgomery, Jim Martin from Gadsden, and John Buchanan from Birmingham.
Edwards and Dickinson had been friends since college. They both had been railroad lawyers when they were approached to run for Congress in 1964. They both may have been surprised to have been elected. However, they went on to do great work together in Congress. Both were experts on national defense and supported the defense industry. Edwards served on the Defense Appropriations Committee. Dickinson rose to be the ranking Republican on Armed Services.
Jack Edwards served in Congress exactly 20 years, from 1965 to 1985, with distinction. He was never seriously challenged politically during those 20 years. He decided to leave Congress at the fairly young age of 54. Edwards then wrote the book on how to contribute and have an effect on progress of the state after life in Congress.
He again began a law practice in Mobile. He joined the prestigious Hand Arendall law firm. Edwards began the Governmental Affairs arm of the firm. This began a practice followed by other well-known firms in Birmingham. Edwards had developed a close friendship and working relationship with President Reagan. He had strongly supported President Reagan’s military buildup as the ranking Republican on the Defense Subcommittee on Appropriations.
He served a stint as Chairman of the Mobile Chamber of Commerce. Like many other Mobilians, he and his wife settled in Fairhope near Point Clear. Edwards served on the Board of Trustees of the University of Alabama System from 1988 to 1999, and was President Pro Tem of the Board before retirement. Additionally, he served on the corporate boards of the Southern Company as well as Northrup Grumman Corporation.
Through his board memberships and Washington connections, he was instrumental in Airbus choosing to locate in Mobile.
When he left Congress in 1984 he essentially handpicked his successor, State Senator Sonny Callahan. Mr. Callahan served in Congress for 18 years, from 1984 to 2002. Callahan then endorsed his successor, Josiah “Jo” Bonner. Congressman Bonner served the district for 10 years with honor and distinction. Bonner is now Governor Ivey’s Chief of Staff and basically her right arm.
The First District has had a history of outstanding congressmen. The greatest may be the Honorable Jack Edwards.
See you next week.
October 9, 2019 - Prison Issue to be addressed in Special Session in February rather than October
The second year of the reign of Governor Kay Ivey may give her a second major accomplishment in the first two years of her term as governor.
In her first year, she spearheaded the measure to increase the state’s gasoline tax in order to allow Alabama to proceed with a much-needed massive infrastructure program labeled Rebuild Alabama.
It is my belief that she and the legislature will resolve the state’s looming prison problems. It was first thought and actually assumed that a Special Session would be called in late October. However, it now appears that the scenario used by the Governor and Chief of Staff, Jo Bonner, last year was so successful that they will replicate the road program plan. They will call a Special Session within next year’s Regular Session.
The Regular Session will begin on February 4, and immediately they will adjourn the regular session and call for a Special Session to deal with the imminent prison overcrowding problem.
A Special Session is the way to go to get a major initiative completed. The legislature must concentrate solely on the issue at hand. Secondly, addressing the proposals offered by the Governor gives her the advantage of requiring the proposals to be addressed exclusively. Thus, the Governor and Legislature avoid the criticism regarding the cost of a Special Session, because, with it being held within the confines of a Regular Session, it does not cost taxpayers any more money.
Legislators and Gov. Ivey acknowledge that there is a crisis and it must be addressed. Governor Ivey nor this Legislature caused this prison overcrowding problem. It has been building up for decades. The chickens just came home to roost under her and this legislative watch.
Primarily, these problems are caused by overcrowding. The Federal Courts have ordered the state to add more correctional officers and to make other significant improvements as part of the remedy to a federal judge’s findings that mental health care is “horrifically inadequate.”
The leader of the prison reform movement has been State Senator Cam Ward. He agreed with the governor in that delaying the session by three months would be wise. He further stated, “Let’s get it done right. Let’s get all of the data, talk with the Department of Justice and pass something that really works.”
The Governor and Senator Ward are wise to wait. There is a tried and true adage, “clear facts make for clear decisions.”
The Legislature has already begun actions to increase funding for prisons. This year’s budget funded an increase in pay for correctional officers in an effort to hire and retain more officers. The courts say that the state only has about one-third of the officers needed.
The Ivey administration has tipped their hand on how a solution to the primary problem will be resolved from her end. Ultimately, the problem boils down to the fact that the state has to have more male inmate beds, which will require three major new men’s prisons. These prisons would hold approximately 10,000 inmates. She plans to go with the privatization of prisons approach, which has had mixed results in other states.
The initial estimate for the cost of construction for the prisons is about $900 million. The private firm selected would bear the cost up front. The state would lease the new prisons. This is going to make the passage of new prisons a possible tougher row to hoe than the gas tax and the Infrastructure package.
Legislators are not going to lay down their guns easily when it comes to closing prisons in their districts. These prisons are major employers in their areas, and in some cases the largest employer.
Alabama is not the only state that is facing this prison overcrowding problem. In some cases the federal courts have taken over the prison systems and implemented the solution from the federal bench. We have been down that road before during the George Wallace versus Judge Frank Johnson era. That is a very costly way to go.
The Department of Justice, federal judges and U.S. Attorneys in Alabama deserve accolades for openly working with the state and Gov. Ivey in giving preliminary guidelines and a blueprint for the state to follow to avoid federal intervention. Gov. Ivey should be given credit for listening, adhering to and discussing the solutions to the state’s overcrowded prison problem with the federal officials.
Like I said, her administration did not cause the problem. However, the Ivey administration may be the one to resolve this imminent problem that has been kicked down the road for over a decade.
See you next week.
October 2, 2019 - 2020 Senate Race Right around the Corner. GOP Field is Probably Set.
Even though qualifying does not begin until October 8, 2019, the field is probably set for the GOP Primary in March to unseat the anomaly Democrat, Doug Jones, who is sitting in Alabama’s Republican U.S. Senate Seat.
First District Congressman Bradley Bryne and Secretary of State John Merrill may be the favorites to lead the field and square off in a runoff. Either of the two will probably win by a 60-40 margin over Jones in November.
The wild card in the race is the iconic character, Roy Moore. He should not be underestimated. He could upset the applecart. He is the only GOP candidate that could possibly lose to Jones. However, in the GOP Primary, Moore has a base of support that is very loyal, older, and will show up to vote in the primary. My guess is that his base has dwindled to 15 percent but if there is a low turnout that number becomes accentuated. Moore will not deviate from his message and he will again ride his horse Sassy to vote in Gallant in his native Etowah County.
One-time Auburn football coach, Tommy Tuberville, is hard to figure out. He has released polls showing that he is in the lead, but my guess is that he will implode. He has not lived in Alabama for over a decade and supposedly had a Florida driver’s license and was registered to vote in Florida when he decided to run. Although, Tuberville’s garnering of the ALFA/Farmer’s Federation endorsement last week is big. This endorsement gives his campaign tremendous credibility. It is a significant and helpful boost in a statewide Republican Primary. However, it is doubtful that he realizes the importance of the endorsement.
A well-known female office holder like Twinkle Cavaughn could have been a player in this race. However, Twinkle chose to run for reelection for PSC President.
The most astute politician in Alabama political history was one George C. Wallace. He was a political genius, especially when it came to Alabama politics. When I was a young legislator, he would invite me down to the Governor’s office to talk politics. The Legislature met in the Capitol in those days and I could just walk down a flight of steps to his suite of offices. He would be holed up back in the private office where I have met with a good many governors over the years. Kay Ivey sits in Wallace’s office today. He would greet me with the same message each time as we sat down for a visit. He really liked to reminisce with his ever-present cigar. In later years, as I sat with other governors, I would often wonder how they got Wallace’s cigar smoke out of that room.
He really could not hear well in his later years, so he did most of the talking. He would cock his head in a certain way and it would signal to me that he was going to impart some sage bit of wisdom. On more than one occasion, he would instill this message. More people vote against someone than for someone. He would further elaborate, “To win you have got to have a boogeyman to run against.”
He ran against integration for a decade. However, when black Alabamians began voting he had to find a new boogeyman. He went back to the old tried and true path used by most populist southern demagogues, he ran against the Big Mules.
Big Jim Folsom was better than Wallace at this game. Big Jim never deviated from his message. It was about running against the Big Mules and Big Planters. Big Jim refused to race bait. He was always a true blue progressive.
Well, my advice to these Republican candidates for the 2020 U.S. Senate race is you have the perfect, ideal boogeyman to run against. He is actually your legitimate opponent sitting right in front of you. It’s Doug Jones, stupid. In the Heart of Dixie in one of, if not the most Republican states in America you have sitting in your Republican U.S. Senate seat a liberal national Democrat, who cozies up to and organizes with and votes with Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Barack Obama.
Wallace would have loved that boogeyman and he would not have had to conjure him up one. Man would he have loved to run against Doug Jones.
Therefore, the best course of action for the Republican frontrunners would be to not go negative against each other or any other GOP candidate in the Republican Primary. Consistently focus in and run against Doug Jones and do not talk about your GOP opposition. Take some advice from another pretty good national politician, Ronald Reagan. President Reagan’s advice to fellow Republicans was the 11th Commandment, “Speak no ill of a fellow Republican.”
See you next week.
September 25, 2019 - The Political Graveyard is full of Congressmen who have tried to run for the Senate
The field is probably formulated for our 2020 Senate race. A Republican will be heavily favored to capture the seat currently held by our Democratic Senator, Doug Jones. Alabama is one of if not the most Republican states in the nation. It is quite an anomaly that a liberal Democrat has sat in that seat for over a year.
Recently I got a very nice letter from a lady who reads my column regularly. She kindly told me that she has read my column religiously for over decade and that she trusts my analysis of Alabama politics. She, however, said, “Mr. Flowers, I notice how you are always sounding the opinion that Doug Jones will most surely be defeated in 2020. You also take that position regarding all Democrats on your television interviews. You may well be right in predicting that since the state is so blindly in love with Trump. However, it strikes me that you could on occasion lend your voice to positives about Doug Jones and others and perhaps give more balanced information. No need to stoke the fires of it’s all over before it is, might even cause some voters to think about the alternative to Roy Moores and Gary Palmers of the world.”
My response to her was as follows, “Thanks for your nice note and thanks for reading the column. I have strived over the years to be objective, nonpartisan, nonjudgmental, nor to express my personal opinion of candidates or issues. I simply attempt to analyze and formulate analysis and explain to my readers, listeners, and viewers what is happening and why it happened to my fellow Alabamians. I personally like Doug Jones and although he is more liberal than most Alabamians, he is a good man. However, from an objective viewpoint as an Alabama political columnist and commentator, Alabama is a very red Republican state. The results of last year’s gubernatorial race confirmed that for me. Walt Maddox was the perfect moderate candidate. He got 40 percent of the vote in the general election. That appears to be the maximum threshold for a Democrat in a statewide race in the Heart of Dixie. Jones will be hard pressed to hit that 40 in a presidential year.”
Having shared that dialogue and my opinion with you brings us to this question. Which Republican will take Jones place next year? I first posed this question in April. It was before the horses were lined up and we speculated that there may be some of our Republican congressmen that might take the plunge. Congressman, Robert Aderholt, opted out early. With over 20 years of seniority in the House and in line to be Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, he has wisely chosen to stay where he is and stay the course in Congress.
My suggestion was that Congressman Mo Brooks would be a strong candidate. He has a true conservative pedigree and is loved by the Washington right wing groups. He is also from the vote rich Huntsville-Tennessee Valley area.
Brooks quickly informed me that he did not want to risk his safe House seat to gamble on the Senate race and lose his seat. When he ran in 2017, it was a Special Election and he had a free shot and didn’t risk his Congressional Seat. This same reasoning has given pause to a good many Congressmen over the years who would love to be a United States Senator.
I told Mo Brooks I did not blame him for his reluctance to gamble. I shared this story with him. When I was a young boy, I cut my teeth politically campaigning and working for my congressman, Bill Dickinson. He was a great Congressman and served the old second district for 28 years. He was a stalwart advocate and savior for the military bases in Montgomery and the Wiregrass. One day when we were riding down the road together, I remember I was driving him to Opp to speak to the Rotary Club, I asked him why he didn’t run for the Senate. He shared an old adage he had heard in the congressional cloakroom. He said, “Steverino, the political graveyard is full of congressmen who have tried to run for the senate.”
See you next week.