September 23, 2020 - All Politics is Local. Most of Alabama’s Mayors Races this Year.
With it being a presidential election year and an election for one of our United States Senate Seats and all of the interest that goes along with those high-profile contests, it has gone under the radar that most of our cities in the state had elections for mayor and city council last month. Mayors serve four-year terms and to most Alabamians they are the most important vote they will cast this year.
The job of mayor of a city is a difficult and intricate fulltime, 24 hours a day dedication to public service. They make more decisions that affect the lives of their friends and neighbors than anyone else. The old maxim, “All politics is local,” is epitomized in the role of mayor. Folks, being mayor of a city is where the rubber meets the road.
In looking all over the state, it appears that most Alabamians are content with the jobs their mayor is doing. In almost every contest around the state, the incumbent mayor turned away the challenger usually by a wide margin. Indeed, a good many of the incumbent mayors in the Heart of Dixie had no opposition.
Many of these incumbent mayors were reelected without opposition. Gordon Stone, the mayor of Alabama’s fastest growing community, Pike Road, will be entering his fifth term as mayor. Pretty soon Pike Road will have to start calling themselves a city.
Vestavia’s Mayor, Ashley Curry, won a second term without opposition. This former retired FBI agent has done a yeoman’s job managing this upscale, Jefferson County suburb.
Jasper Mayor, David O’Mary, who escaped opposition, will begin a second term. He has run Jasper like a well-tuned engine. Albertville mayor, Tracy Honea, garnered a third term without opposition. Luverne Mayor Ed Beasley was also unopposed.
In the contested races, most of the matchups were no contest. Two of Alabama’s largest and most prosperous cities, Huntsville and Hoover, had mayoral races. Tommy Battle coasted to an easy 78 to 22 reelection victory in Huntsville. If Kay Ivey opts to not run for reelection in 2022, Battle will be favored to win the governor’s race. However, being Governor of Alabama would be a demotion to being Mayor of Huntsville.
Hoover citizens must approve of Mayor Frank Brocato’s job performance. Brocato trounced Hoover City Council President Gene Smith by a 76 to 24 margin.
Opelika’s popular and effective, longtime mayor, Gary Fuller, turned back his challenger 66 to 34 to win a fifth term.
In Cullman incumbent mayor, Woody Jacobs, won a second term overwhelmingly. Hamilton Mayor Bob Page won a second term. Troy’s 48-year-old mayor, Jason Reeves, won reelection to a third four-year term with 74% of the vote. Incumbent Eufaula Mayor Jack Tibbs won an impressive 68% victory for reelection over two opponents.
Prattville Mayor Bill Gillespie may have turned in the most impressive showing. He shellacked former City Councilman Dean Argo 70 to 30. His fellow citizens must approve of frugality with their city finances. Wetumpka’s popular and hardworking, longtime mayor, Jerry Willis, turned back his challenger by a 69 to 31 margin. In neighboring Millbrook incumbent mayor, Al Kelley, won reelection 67 to 33. Mayor Kelley has overseen the growth of his city from 6,000 in population to over 20,000. Tallassee reelected Mayor John Hammock to a second term.
Clanton lost their mayor of three decades, Billy Joe Driver, to COVID this year. His successor will be Jeff Mims, who won the election in the Peach City. Mike Oakley won the mayor’s race in Centreville with a 60% margin. It is proper and fitting that an Oakley will be Mayor of Centreville.
Bessemer Mayor Kenneth Gulley won a landslide reelection garnering 68% of the vote. Incumbent Pell City Mayor Bill Pruitt won reelection by an impressive 73 to 27 margin. Longtime Greenville Mayor Dexter McLendon won reelection in the Camellia City. Opp’s first female mayor, Becky Bracke, won a second term with 60% of the vote.
There were two mayoral upsets on August 25. Scottsboro’s incumbent mayor was defeated by challenger Jimmy McCamy. In the thriving, growing city of Fairhope challenger Sherry Sullivan trounced incumbent mayor Karin Wilson.
There are runoffs for mayor in several major cities, including Enterprise, Ozark, Selma, Tuskegee, Alexander City and Northport. These cities will elect their mayors on October 6 in runoff elections.
Some of you may be wondering about two of the most populous cities. Tuscaloosa and Dothan have their mayoral races next year in August of 2021. Tuscaloosa’s Walt Maddox and Dothan’s Mark Saliba will be tough to beat. All politics is local.
If you have not been counted in the census, you have not got many more shopping days to Christmas.
September 16, 2020 - The Presidential Race is Underway
Now that the national political party conventions are over and the nominees have been coronated, the battle royale for the White House is in full throttle. The nominees, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, will shatter the age barrier. Whoever is elected will be the oldest person ever elected President. If Donald Trump is reelected, he will be 75 when sworn in. If Joe Biden wins, he will be close to 79. When I was a young man, folks at that age were in the nursing home if they were alive. By comparison, 60 years ago when John Kennedy was elected, he was 42.
If by chance, you are worried about their traversing all over the 50 states and keeling over in the process, calm your fears. Trump will campaign in only about 10-12 states, and Biden will campaign in probably only two. Why, you might ask? There are only 10-12 states that matter in a presidential contest.
Under our Electoral College system, the candidate that gets one more popular vote than the other gets all of that state’s electoral votes.
The country is divided like never before in our history. You either live in a red Republican state, like Alabama, or a blue Democratic state, like California. You might say the hay is in the barn in all but about 10 battleground swing states. There are 40 states that it really does not matter who the Republican nominee is, that party’s candidate is going to win that state and get all of that state’s electoral votes.
Our national politics has become so partisan and divided with such a vociferous divide that old Joe Biden will carry California by a 60-40 margin, and Donald Trump will carry Alabama by a 60-40 margin. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, Alabama only has 9 electoral votes whereas California has 55.
The election is won or lost in the swing states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota. It is in these six states that all of the campaign money will be spent and where the two aged candidates might campaign. It will all boil down to certain zip codes in these six states. Current polling has Biden ahead of Trump in most of the battleground states.
President Donald Trump for the first three years of his presidency reigned over a tremendous economic boom. He had a fighting chance at reelection based on one factor: “it’s the economy, stupid.”
All that changed in March. The coronavirus pandemic hit our nation and devastated our national economy. All of the growth of three years has been devastated. During the same month of March, the aging Democrat, Joe Biden, captured the Democratic nomination from the Socialist, Bernie Sanders.
Under the Electoral College System, President Trump has to carry most of the key battleground states in order to win. Current polling has Biden ahead of Trump in most, if not all the pivotal swing states because of the COVID-19 pandemic. When the economy was busting through the roof, Trump could claim credit for the thriving economy. Likewise, the economic recession caused by the coronavirus is not Trump’s fault. However, it happened under his watch. There is a tried and true political maxim, “If you claim credit for the rain, then you gonna get the blame for the drought.”
There is also a cardinal rule in politics. All politics is local. Folks, Joe Biden was born and raised in Pennsylvania in the blue-collar city of Scranton to be exact. Even if Trump were to miraculously carry all five of the large, pivotal states, he will have a hard time carrying Pennsylvania.
I know most of you reading this do not like to hear this dour outlook for Trump. However, there is hope. First of all, I am pretty good at predicting and analyzing Alabama political races; not so much when it comes to national politics. In fact, I am usually wrong.
Another golden, proven caveat in politics, they only count the votes of the people who show up to vote. Older voters tend to be Republican. and older voters are the ones that show up to vote.
We will see in six short weeks.
September 9, 2020 - 1960 Presidential Race Marked beginning of Television as Premier Political Medium
The 1960 Presidential Race between Richard Nixon and John Kennedy is considered by many political historians to be a landmark presidential contest. This race for the White House, exactly 60 years ago, marked a pivotal change in presidential election politics when the advent of television became the premier medium for political candidates.
John Kennedy was a 42-year-old, charismatic, democratic senator from Massachusetts. Richard Nixon was a veteran politico who was vice president under the popular war hero, President General Dwight “Ike” Eisenhower.
The presidential debate between Democrat Kennedy and Republican Nixon was to be televised nationwide. This was the first televised presidential debate. Television was a new phenomenon.
Kennedy understood the importance of the debate and the new medium of television. He took a full week off the campaign trail and went to the Kennedy compound in Hyannis Port and studied and prepared and was rested and tanned.
Nixon, on the other hand, campaigned nonstop, 18 hours a day up until the telecast. He was tired looking and also suffering from painful phlebitis. When he arrived at the NBC studios for the debate, he bumped his bad leg on the car door, and it flared up the phlebitis. He was in severe pain when he took the stage. However, the worst thing he did was fail to shave and he refused makeup. He had a heavy five o’clock shadow. In fact, he had not shaved since five o’clock that morning. He appeared tired and haggard and unshaven. It made him look very sinister. He glared menacingly into the camera and at Kennedy. In short, he was awful.
Nixon was used to radio and, in fact, those that listened to the debate on radio thought Nixon won. However, those that watched on TV thought differently. Kennedy was tanned, relaxed, smiled and was handsome and charismatic. Kennedy won the election that night. The televised debate was the key. Therefore, 1960 marks the beginning of television being the way and means to victory in an election.
Folks, I am here to tell you it has not changed. Television is still the medium that drives the vote. It has been rumored and stated as fact that social media has taken over. But, it has not yet.
It is a known fact in politics that older people vote. That has not changed. It is folks my age, who are 60 and over, who vote and elect people. Young people under 40 simply do not vote. They really do not have time to vote in that stage of life. They are trying to raise a family, build a career and get children to soccer games or dance class after an eight-hour workday and then get dinner on the table.
There are very few 25-year old millennials who vote. They get their information off social media, but it does not translate into voting. Most of them are not even registered or know where they go to get registered or much less where their polling place is. We older people still watch TV and we vote.
As I peruse and study the campaign finance filings of the candidates running for office in Alabama this year, the fact is confirmed. Every major winning candidate for all the viable and primary races for U.S. Senate or Congress spent the bulk of their campaign money on television.
In looking back at the 1960 Presidential Race and comparing it to this year’s 2020 contest, reveals a stark transition in presidential politics. Under the Electoral College System, at that time there were 40 states in play and 10 states that were safe Republican or Democratic enclaves.
Today, it is just the opposite. There are 40 states that are predetermined to be safely solid either Red Republican states or Blue Democratic states. You might say the hay is in the barn in at least 40 of our United States. As I often say, if Mickey Mouse were the Republican nominee, he could carry Alabama; and if Donald Duck was the Democratic candidate, he would carry California.”
Our country is divided, politically, and divisively like never before in history along partisan lines. It is almost 50/50. Therefore, the key to victory is inspiring and firing up your base to vote.
If enthusiasm is any indication, then the needle is moving toward Donald Trump and the Republicans. Although the addition of Senator Kamala Harris to the Democratic ticket may enthuse African American female voters, who are the base of the Democratic Party.
See you next week.
September 2, 2020 - Labor Day
Labor Day is upcoming on Monday. In bygone days it was the benchmark day for campaign season to start. Historically, Labor Day barbeques were events where political campaigns had their roots. Camp stew and barbequed pork were devoured while folks listened to politicians promise how they were going to bring home the pork.
The most legendary political Labor Day Barbeques have been held in the Northwest corner of the state. There were two monumental, legendary, barbeque events in that neck of the woods that were a must go to event for aspiring and veteran politicians, both locally and statewide.
The Terry Family Reunion is in the Loosier Community of Lawrence County. This is where the large Terry family originated. Actually, a good many of the folks that attend have kinship or ties to the Terry family. Many of the folks in Lawrence County are kin to each other through the large Terry family.
Every serious candidate for governor or major statewide office made the Terry barbeque. It lasted all day. Some would arrive in helicopters, which garnered attention. Legendary icons like Big Jim Folsom, George Wallace, Bill Baxley, Albert Brewer and Howell Heflin attended every year.
Another Labor Day barbeque was held in that area, which was just as important if not quite as big and wide open as the Terry Event. The legendary L. O. Bishop of Colbert County was known for having a Labor Day barbeque bash. His event was big, but more selective. L.O. was and has been for 60 years a leader in the Alabama Farmers Federation. He would only invite the Alfa backed candidates. His barbeque is renowned as the best in the state.
Bishop and Howell Heflin were best friends. Heflin became the best friend the Alabama farmer had. Judge Heflin became Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. He did a yeoman’s job for Alabama Agriculture.
Senator Heflin was from Colbert County. He was renowned for being a great lawyer, storyteller and judge. Being from Northwest Alabama, he made the event of his best friend L. O. Bishop and the Terry Family Reunion every year. He not only made the events, he stayed there all day, grazed and ate barbeque.
Judge loved to eat. He really loved barbeque. You could tell he liked to eat from his large rotund physique. He considered himself a connoisseur of barbeque. In fact, he toured the state every year and he would plan his schedule so that he could eat at his favorite barbeque places in every corner of the state. When he would get through eating a plate of pork or ribs, he would smack his lips, sigh, wipe his face with his handkerchief and say, “That’s some mighty fine barbeque, it’s almost as good as L.O.’s”
It may be hard for some of you to believe, but after World War II and throughout the 1960’s organized labor was king in Alabama, unlike today where most of our large industries are not unionized. During that 20-year period (1946-1966), Alabama was the most unionized state in the South by far. In fact, every major employer in the State of Alabama was a union shop.
Beginning in Northwest Alabama, the Reynolds Aluminum Plant in Sheffield and Florence was union. The Tennessee Valley workers throughout North Alabama were all union. The paper mill and Goodrich Tire Plant in Tuscaloosa were union.
The largest employer in Gadsden, the Goodyear Tire Factory, was union.
The Lee County Tire Manufacturing Plant was union. The military base employees at Ft. Rucker in the wiregrass were union.
The largest employer in Mobile was the state docks. Guess what, Folks? All those workers belong to the union.
The largest employer in Birmingham, as well as the largest employer in the State of Alabama, were the steel mills and U.S. Steel. You guessed it – the steel workers were all unionized. In fact, the Steel Workers Union in Birmingham was the largest in the nation.
The GOP ticket that appears on the ballot in 60 days will be a powerful triumvirate. It has gone under the radar since the presidential and senate races have taken center stage, but popular PSC President Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh is up for reelection. Thus, the Republican ticket will feature and illustrious alliteration of Trump/Tuberville/Twinkle, which will be hard to beat in the Heart of Dixie.
Happy Labor Day!
August 26, 2020 - Legendary Liberal U.S. Supreme Court Justice Hugo Black was from Alabama
The most enduring legacy a president will have is an appointment to the United States Supreme Court. A lifetime appointment to the high tribunal is the ultimate power. The nine Justices of the Supreme Court have omnipotent everlasting power over most major decisions affecting issues and public policy in our nation. President Trump has had two SCOTUS appointments and confirmations. This is monumental. These appointments may be his lasting legacy.
The only Alabamian to ever serve on the U.S. Supreme Court was Hugo Black. It may come as a surprise to you, since Alabama is today considered one of the most conservative places in America, but Hugo Black was arguably one of the most liberal Supreme Court justices in history. He was also one of the longest serving justices.
Black was the fifth longest serving Supreme Court Justice. He sat on the Supreme Court of the United States from 1937 until his death in 1971. Nearly 35 of his 85 years on earth were spent on the Supreme Court.
Hugo Black, like most folks of that era in Alabama history, was born on a farm. Black was from rural Clay County. He was the youngest child of a large family. He worked his way through the University of Alabama Law School under the tutelage of President George Denny. He shoveled coal to stoke the furnaces at the University. He graduated Phi Beta Kappa.
Black began practicing law in Birmingham at 22 years old. He became a Jefferson County Prosecutor and then World War I broke out. He served in the war and rose to the rank of Captain.
In 1926, at age 40, Black was elected to the U.S. Senate. Prior to that he had been a practicing Labor lawyer and won his seat with the help of organized Labor, especially in Birmingham. He arrived in the Senate at the beginning of the Great Depression. During his entire tenure in the Senate, America was in the throes of the Depression. Folks who endured this era were marked by it. It made all southern politicians progressives and new dealers.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt came to the White House in 1932. His New Deal was the most legendary political accomplishment in American history. Black became one of FDR’s staunchest allies. He voted for 24 out of 24 of Roosevelt’s New Deal programs.
Alabama benefitted mightily from FDR’s New Deal, especially rural Alabama and the Tennessee Valley. Roosevelt rewarded Alabama’s junior senator with a coveted seat on the Supreme Court. He was one of nine justices appointed by President Roosevelt during his 13-year reign as president.
It is hard today to imagine that Alabama could produce such a liberal judge. However, during this era of American history, Alabama’s congressional delegation was one of the most liberal in the nation due to the fact that they totally embraced FDR and his New Deal.
Black was a liberal New Dealer in the Senate and liberals were pleased by the Justice from Alabama’s tenure over the next 35 years. Liberals regard Black as one of the most influential Supreme Court Justices of the 20th Century. He literally hung his hat on the 14th Amendment.
Black was a part of the court decision that declared school racial segregation illegal in the famous Brown v. Board of Education decision. He was the author of numerous opinions upholding Civil Rights. Black was known for his liberal policies and Civil liberties. It was interesting and probably unbelievable to most Americans that Alabama’s only contribution to the Supreme Court was one of the most liberal Justices.
In many ways, our current Democratic U.S. Senator, Doug Jones, is very similar to the late Justice Hugo Black. If truth were known, my guess is that one of Doug Jones’ idols is Hugo Black.
Jones is a Birmingham, pro-labor, civil rights, criminal defense lawyer with a background as a prosecutor. He was appointed a U.S. Attorney by a Democrat president. Doug Jones has, throughout his legal career been a national Democrat.
With Jones’s 2017 election to the U.S. Senate, he became and is still a darling superstar among the national Democratic elitists. He is the only Democratic Senator from the Deep South. The liberal Democrats in California and New York adore and admire him. Indeed, the vast majority of his campaign money derives from California and New York zip codes. His defeat of the ultra-conservative, anti-gay marriage judge, Roy Moore, has made him a national Democratic rock star.
It is very likely that Democrat Joe Biden could win the White House. If that occurs, look for Doug Jones as a potential cabinet member. Even though at age 64, Doug Jones is not the ideal choice for a Supreme Court appointment, it is not out of the realm of possibility.
See you next week.
August 19, 2020 - We Have Six Living Past Governors. How Are They Doing?
Some of you may wonder how many past governors we have in Alabama who are still living and how they are doing. We have six living past governors.
Governor John Patterson is our oldest living chief executive. Patterson is 99 years old and living on his ancestral family farm in rural Tallapoosa County in an obscure area named Goldville. Patterson is a legend in Alabama politics. He was Governor from 1958-1962 and was at the forefront of the beginning of the Civil Rights issue. He has the distinction of being the only person to beat George Wallace in a governor’s race in the Heart of Dixie. When he was elected in 1958, he was 37-years-old and was dubbed the “Boy Governor”. Patterson was Attorney General of Alabama for a term prior to being governor and served several decades on the Court of Criminal Appeals after his governorship.
He spends his time on his farm reading and tending to his animals. In fact, visitors to his home will find he has a pet goat named Rebecca. She sits and listens intently to your conversation and her head will move and look at those talking as though she is part of the conversation. Governor Patterson is totally on top of his game and has attended numerous weddings and funerals in the past year. He recognizes and converses with friends and relatives.
Forrest “Fob” James served two terms as governor, although not concurrently. He was first elected in 1978 as a Democrat, serving 1979-1982, and secondly in 1994 as a Republican serving from 1995-1998. He is the only person in state history to be elected governor as a Democrat and a Republican. Fob is 85 and doing well. He lives primarily in Miami, Florida and spends his days walking and caring for his wife, Bobbie.
Robert Bentley was one of the most successful and respected dermatologists in the state prior to entering politics. Bentley served two terms in the Alabama House prior to his being elected governor, twice. He was first elected governor in 2010 and reelected, overwhelmingly, in 2014. He served over six years as governor and did a good job. He is 77-years-old and in good health. He has resumed his medical/dermatology practice in Tuscaloosa.
Bob Riley served two successful terms as governor. He was elected in 2002 and reelected in 2006, therefore serving as governor eight full years. He is only 75-years-old. He was raised in Clay County, and now lives in Birmingham with his lovely wife, Patsy. He has several lucrative lobbying contracts.
If anyone was ever born to be governor, it was Don Siegelman. He was born and raised in Mobile. He went on to the University of Alabama where he was SGA President and then went on to graduate from Georgetown Law School. He served in Alabama politics for 26 years. He was elected Secretary of State, Attorney General of Alabama and Lt. Governor prior to his election as Governor in 1998. He served one term as governor. Siegelman is the last member of the Democratic party as well as the only Roman Catholic to serve as Governor of Alabama.
Don is doing well at 74. I enjoy visiting with him over lunch. He enjoys time with his wife, Lori, and his two grown children, Joseph and Dana and his dog Kona. He has a book out entitled, Stealing our Democracy, which is doing well in sales.
Speaking of being born to be governor, Jim Folsom, Jr. was literally born in the Governor’s Mansion in May 1949, while his daddy, James “Big Jim” Folsom was governor his first term, 1946-1950. Jim Folsom, Jr. had an illustrious career in Alabama politics. He was elected and served several times as a member of the Public Service Commission and three terms as Lt. Governor, prior to becoming governor in 1993. He did an excellent job as governor and is credited with bringing Mercedes to Alabama.
Little Jim was a brilliant politician inherently being the son of the legendary “Big Jim” Folsom. However, most folks say his beautiful wife, Marsha Guthrie, is the better politician of the two. Jim and Marsha are doing well and live in their hometown of Cullman. Their son and daughter are grown and are doing well.
See you next week.
August 12, 2020 - Thoughts on Last Month’s GOP Primary
It has been a month since our mid-July GOP runoffs for the U.S. Senate and two open Congressional seats. Since then, numerous publications as well as many of you have asked me to analyze and assess the outcomes.
In the Senate runoff between Tommy Tuberville and Jeff Sessions the outcome can be explained in one word, “Trump.” It is that simple. Coach Tuberville read the playbook, perfectly and stayed on script. Alabama is Trump Country. President Trump may very well replicate or exceed his 63% 2016 landslide vote in the Heart of Dixie come fall. All Coach Tuberville needs to do is keep doing the same thing. Simply say, “I’m Trump’s man, and I will have his back.”
Tuberville’s Democratic opponent, Doug Jones, has a lot of left-wing money from California that will help our Alabama TV and radio stations and hopefully, newspapers make a lot of money, but it will be for naught. It might allow Jones to get over the traditional 40% threshold for a Democrat in Alabama, but it is tough for a Democrat to win in Alabama, especially in a Presidential year.
With all that money, Jones’ will try to tell Alabamians that he is not a liberal, yellow-dog Democrat, but he is. They will also attack Tuberville unmercifully, personally. Tuberville should not take the bait. He needs to keep his head down and diffuse the assaults and march on simply saying, “I’m Trump’s man.” Under no circumstances should he debate. It only gives Jones credibility.
All Tuberville has to say is that Jones has voted straight down the line with his liberal Democratic friends and colleagues on every major issue. Especially, that he joined his Democratic bedfellows Nancy Pelosi and the California Democrats in the vote to impeach Donald Trump and against Trump’s conservative Supreme Court appointments. Jones and his California team will try to make the race about personalities, Jones versus Tuberville.
However, at the end of the day, Tuberville really does not even have to campaign. On November 3rd it will be a choice between Donald Trump and Tommy Tuberville with a big “R” on top of their names or Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Doug Jones with a big “D” on top of their names. Folks, there is no doubt who will win that fight in the Heart of Dixie.
In the Congressional races, the story was about the Club for Growth. This is an ultra-right-wing group of rich men, who have decided they wanted to spend a lot of money in Republican primaries around the country. For some reason, Alabama’s two open congressional seats in the 1st and 2nd districts attracted these Club for Growth Daddy Warbucks. They wanted to boast that they captured a seat. They bought them one in the 2nd district, but they lost in their attempt to buy the 1st district.
The winner of the 1st district race, the Mobile-Baldwin seat, was won by Jerry Carl. He is a normal pro-business Republican. The right-wing Club for Growth spent over one million dollars trying to elect Carl’s opponent, Bill Hightower. Jerry Carl must be one tough, well thought of Mobilian to overcome that onslaught of money.
In the 2nd district the Club for Growth orchestrated the most amazing comeback upset I have ever seen. Dothan businessman, Jeff Coleman, spent over $2 million of his own money and raised another $2 million from main street conservative groups like Chambers of Commerce and Farmers. This financial advantage propelled Coleman to what looked like a prohibitive lead in the first primary on March 3.
It looked like a cakewalk for Coleman. His opponent was a relatively unknown former state representative named Barry Moore, who barely made it into the runoff. Undoubtedly, the Club for Growth polled the district and saw they could beat Coleman – the mainstream, probusiness Republican. They blindsided him with a million dollars of negative ads and brochures the last three weeks of the campaign.
A million dollars in three weeks in the very inexpensive Montgomery-Dothan media market is insurmountable. Their ads were well designed, vicious, and yes, disingenuous and they worked. The Club for Growth bought themselves a congressional seat. However, they will get very little bang for their buck. Moore will be in Congress two years, then gone. Alabama probably is going to lose a seat to California after this year’s census. In 2022, we will go from seven seats to six. This district likely is the one that will be one on the chopping block. If indeed our 2nd congressional district moves to California, maybe Doug Jones can run for it. His voting record will sell on the left coast.
See you next week.
August 5, 2020 - Tommy Tuberville Ran a Good Disciplined Campaign for Senate
Old political maxims clearly played out true to form in the GOP runoff for our junior U.S. Senate seat on July 14.
Tommy Tuberville ran a very wise and disciplined campaign. He steadily stayed on point and simply said I am going to support Donald Trump. Undoubtedly , when Tuberville decided about a year ago to leave his Florida home and run for the U.S. Senate in Alabama, whoever was advising him knew that the only issue was going to be who could cozy up to Donald J. Trump the most. They gave Tuberville the script and he followed his playbook to perfection. He never deviated and never got distracted by issues, questions, or debates. He simply rode the Donald Trump horse all the way home.
Trump is very popular among Republican voters in the Heart of Dixie. That same horse will more than likely carry Tuberville to victory over Doug Jones in November. Trump will beat Joe Biden 60-40 in the state and Tuberville’s numbers over Jones should be close to that same margin. There will be a lot of straight ticket voting in the Fall. There are more Republican voters than Democratic voters in Alabama.
Therefore, Tuberville’s victory illustrates two cardinal maxims of Alabama politics. Number one is more people vote against someone or something than for someone or something. Trump said he did not like Jeff Sessions and asked Alabama GOP voters to vote against him and they obliged Trump. Secondly, Tuberville kept it simple. He epitomized the old saying, “Keep it simple stupid.” It is called the KISS formula. He stayed on message just like a parrot. He did not have to say much. Trump said it all. It also accrued to Tuberville’s advantage that he was a nonpolitician and Washington outsider. Sessions had sat in this seat in the Senate for 20 years.
Coach Tuberville began the race with some significant name identification. Thus, the third maxim, you must have name identification before you have a chance to win. People are not going to vote for someone they have never of. Tuberville’s name identification numbers were 35% going into the race, which was about as high as Jeff Sessions and a little higher than Bradley Byrne. That is truly a testament to how popular college football is in Alabama.
It had been 10 years since Tuberville had coached at Auburn, but Auburn fans traditionally stick together. I suspect every Auburn football fan in the state voted for Tuberville. It is like one big family. It is not just called the loveliest village on the plains, it is also referred to as the friendliest place you ever visited.
Coincidentally and ironically, Tuberville’s victory is a carbon copy of another Auburn man’s victory for governor 32 years ago. Forrest “Fob” James won the 1978 Governor’s race with the same KISS formula as Tuberville.
Fob James had become wealthy by starting and running a barbell manufacturing company in Opelika. When Fob signed up to run for governor, the press wrote him off as a rich gadfly. Fob quietly used his millions to sign up the most brilliant campaign media strategist in the South, Deloss Walker. Fob was told by Walker never deviate from the script I give you and do not answer any questions.
There were three heavy weights expected to finish first, second and third. Former Governor Albert Brewer, Attorney General Bill Baxley, and Lt. Governor Jere Beasley. As Walker expected, all three spent their time and money beating up on each other while Fob rode a yellow school bus over the state simply saying I am getting back to the basics, reading, writing and arithmetic. Thus, more people vote against someone and the KISS formula.
Walker’s initial polling showed that Fob actually had some name identification from being an Auburn football player in the 1950’s. He was a pretty good halfback. That poll also picked up that Auburn Alumni yearned for an Auburn man to become governor.
In this most recent race, it helped Tuberville immensely that the Alabama Farmers Federation (ALFA) endorsed him early in his quest. This key endorsement gave him credibility and early impetus. Most of the farmers on the endorsement committee by the way are Auburn graduates and Auburn football fans.
The more things change the more they stay the same.
See you next week.
July 29, 2020 - It will be Trump vs Biden in November. Conventions will be anticlimactic.
The presidential race is onward. It will be incumbent Republican Donald Trump vs. former Vice President and 36-year veteran Democrat, Delaware U.S. Senator Joe Biden in the November 3rd General Election.
Both men have clinched their parties’ nomination. Therefore, the Democratic convention, July 31-August 2 and the Republican convention set for August 25-28 will be anticlimactic. It is doubtful that either convention will break any television rating records.
However, there will be one record shattered in this year’s presidential contest. Trump and Biden will be the two oldest presidential contenders in history. Biden is 78 and Trump is 74. Actually, Trump was the oldest person to ever be sworn in as president four-years ago. So if Biden wins he will really break the record at 78.6 years. By the way, the youngest president was John F. Kennedy, who was 43 when he was sworn in as president in January of 1961.
This has already been one of the most unusual presidential election years in American history. The COVID-19 pandemic has turned the world upside down, especially the American economy. The economy is the pivotal issue that decides presidential elections. Prior to the pandemic, the economy was Trump’s trump card. The economic collapse caused by the pandemic was not Trump’s fault but it happened on his watch. There is an old political maxim that says, “If you claim credit for the rain, then you gotta take blame for the drought.”
Trump was not in the lead prior to the pandemic disaster. He is certainly behind the eight ball today. The country is divided like never before in our history. You either live in a red Republican state like Alabama or a blue Democratic state like California. Under the electoral college system of selecting our president, the election is won or lost in the swing states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.
Current polling has Biden ahead in all of these pivotal states. He has double digit leads in Michigan and his birth home of Pennsylvania. It looks like Joe Biden is favored to be the next president at almost 80 years old. Therefore, it is extremely important who he chooses as his running mate to be vice president.
Biden has unequivocally stated that his vice-president will be a female. His choice probably will boil down to California Senator Kamala Harris. Originally, it was between Minnesota Senator, Amy Klobuchar and Senator Kamala Harris.
Senator Klobuchar would have been an excellent choice. She was well qualified and thoroughly vetted. She is Minnesota’s senior senator having represented her native state since 2006. She is very popular in her home state and would probably have brought the swing state of Minnesota into the Democratic column.
However, she withdrew her name for consideration after it became apparent that the Democratic Party base demanded Biden choose a female candidate of color.
Senator Kamala Harris, 55, has had a stellar career. She is very well qualified to be president. She ran an excellent campaign for the Democratic nomination earlier this year and is a U.S. Senator from the largest state in the Union.
She was Attorney General of California prior to being elected to the U.S. Senate from the Golden State. She classifies herself as African-American. Her mother was an Indian/American/Canadian cancer researcher. Her father was a Jamaican born businessman.
By selecting Senator Kamala Harris, Biden chooses a person of non-white ethnicity. African American women are the heart and soul of the Democratic Party and the most reliable Democratic voters. Senator Harris would energize the base. Turnout is the key to any election.
Odds are that if Joe Biden is elected president in November, he will probably be a one-term president. At almost 80, it is doubtful that he would run again in 2024. Therefore, his choice for his running mate and vice president would be favored to be elected president in four years and could become president before then.
There is a tried and true maxim in politics, more people vote against someone than for someone. The Democrats’ plan of attack is for Biden to do nothing, say nothing and let Trump beat himself.
It will be an interesting and important choice for Biden as he or his advisors select his vice-presidential running mate. Again, turnout is the key.
See you next week.
July 22, 2020 - GOP Primary Over, Fall Elections Begin
The field is set for the November General Election and more than likely the races were decided on July 14. We had some good races including the race for our junior U.S. Senate seat as well as two open Congressional seats.
Tommy Tuberville won an impressive 60-40 victory over Jeff Sessions in the GOP primary runoff for U.S. Senate. The tea leaves portend that Tuberville the Republican will defeat the Democrat Doug Jones by that same 60-40 margin. He will win for one reason. He is a solid Republican in a solidly Republican state.
Winning the GOP nomination for a U.S. Senate seat and for that matter any statewide office is tantamount to election in Alabama. We are a very hardcore, safe, red Republican state, especially in a presidential year. It is also a very safe assumption to say that Donald Trump will carry Alabama in the presidential contest, and Trump’s coattails should assure a Tommy Tuberville victory.
The two open Congressional seats in the 1st and 2nd districts are very safely Republican seats. Therefore, the winners Jerry Carl and Barry Moore can start packing for Washington.
A not so subtle participation occurred in our GOP Primaries in Alabama this year. Generally, Republican leaning Political Action Committees, like the Chamber of Commerce, stay out of party primaries and save their ammunition for the General Election battle against Democrats. However, there is a giant that does not play by those rules. This giant is The Club for Growth – a right-wing PAC that promotes Republican candidates that adhere to a free market, free trade, anti-regulation agenda. They also believe and advocate for cutting income taxes and repealing the estate tax. Therefore, as you might guess, the money given to the Club for Growth comes from deep pocketed, very wealthy, very conservative right-wing Americans. They dig deep into their pockets and write big checks primarily to Republican candidates.
As a political observer it is apparent to me that these Big Daddy Warbucks political wannabe players have more money than sense. Anybody with walking around sense knows that anybody elected to a Republican U.S. Senate seat or Republican Congressional seat in Alabama is going to be a conservative pro-business vote in Washington.
Whichever candidate won the 1st District Congressional race was going to vote the same. Yet the Club for Growth spent over $1 million on behalf of Jerry Carl’s opponent. In the 2nd Congressional runoff, the Club for Growth donated over $750,000 on behalf of Barry Moore against Jeff Coleman, either of whom would have voted conservatively or probusiness. In the U.S. Senate first primary race, the Club for Growth spent nearly $700,000 to keep Congressman Bradley Byrne out of the Senate runoff.
This $2.7 million was spent in negative advertisements against their opponents, who again are fellow Republicans who are going to vote identically as the other. They gave their candidates another $300,000 for positive ads. That is $3 million in Alabama.
My question to whoever runs the Club for Growth is, “Do you not think that your money would be put to better use to help Republican U.S. Senate incumbents that are in close reelection contests in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina?” These conservative Republican incumbents are trailing in the polls, as well as behind in fundraising. In short, whoever is calling the shots for the Club for Growth is essentially a political imbecile.
If the Republicans lose the U.S. Senate, then the liberal Democrats will nail those rich idiots’ hides to the wall, and they deserve it. However, Alabama does not deserve it nor can we afford it. If the Republicans lose the majority in the U.S. Senate our crown jewel, Republican Senior Senator Richard Shelby, loses the chairmanship of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and Alabama loses all its power and influence in Washington. You will have a say in that. Currently, national pundits have Doug Jones losing in Alabama to Republican Tommy Tuberville.
However, that is no guarantee. The national Democrats would love to use Doug Jones as a Democratic vehicle to take control of the U.S. Senate and give the chairmanship of the Appropriations Committee to a liberal Democrat. Therefore, philosophy aside, economically a vote for Doug Jones is a vote against Richard Shelby and the State of Alabama.
See you next week.