January 20, 2021 - Prison Issue still a Tar-Baby
As the 2021 Regular Legislative Session looms, the 800-pound gorilla in the room is the prison issue. The situation has grown more dire and imminent because the U.S. Justice Department has now filed suit against the State of Alabama.
When Kay Ivey took office in January of 2019, she and the new legislature knew that they were going to have to address the prison problem in the state. Fixing prisons is not a popular issue. It wins you no votes to fix a broken prison system. Prisoners do not vote. However, victims of crime generally are voters, and they are adamant and vociferous in their beliefs that those who committed crimes should be put behind bars, locked up, and the keys thrown away.
Judges also believe in strict prison sentences, especially in Alabama. Our judges are elected in the Heart of Dixie. Therefore, our prisons are overcrowded.
Our men’s prisons are currently at 157% capacity. Governor Ivey and this legislature did not cause this problem. It has been building up and festering for years. The chickens have just come home to roost under their watch.
Alabama prisons have been overcrowded and understaffed for years. Ivey’s predecessor, former Governor Robert Bentley, proposed legislation that would have built new prisons with a bond issue. Lawmakers considered several courses of action but never came up with a solution.
The major obstacles to finding a remedy through legislative action is the cost factor and the location of any new prisons. Having a state prison in your district is a political plum for any legislator, especially those in rural districts. A prison is an economic boom to locals. It not only provides a host of jobs, but also has peripheral economic benefits.
The state realized the seriousness of this problem in April of 2019 when the Department of Justice stepped in and said Alabama has to do something or they will. The Feds have in the past taken over Alabama’s Prison System during the George Wallace vs. Judge Frank Johnson era. In recent years the federal government has taken over California’s prison system due to overcrowding. The ultimate leniency threshold seems to be 150% capacity.
When the Justice Department sent the warning, we were at 175% capacity. During the 2019 legislative session the legislature, led by Senator Cam Ward, took some actions toward recidivism that has had an immediate impact. The Justice Department edict not only called Alabama out on overcrowding, they also addressed the excessive violence and the lack of mental health treatment among the inmates. However, they hung their hat on the constitutional rights that Alabama’s prisoners are not being provided adequate human conditions of confinement.
Therefore, the cornerstone solution is three new mega men’s prisons. Governor Ivey took the bull by the horns and made an executive decision to proceed without legislative approval or input. She made the decision quietly and without discussion or hesitancy to go with private developers to build three men’s new correction facilities. The proposed sites are in Bibb, Elmore and Escambia Counties. The Department of Corrections already has major prisons in all three of these counties, which makes it a logical decision. Three separate prime developers have been chosen by the governor to finance, build and maintain the three prisons that the state would lease and operate.
The states’ cost for leasing these facilities would be capped at a total of $88 million a year. The Department of Corrections and the Governor say they can pay for the leases on new prisons through cost savings.
A good many legislators do not like Governor Ivey’s unilateral decision to proceed with contracting for new prisons without their consent. This is a big-ticket item that the legislature would like to be involved with since they are responsible for the funding and balancing of the state’s budgets.
The legislature will also need to address other issues outlined in the Department of Justice edict. This major issue of overcrowding seems to be a big tar-baby that the state legislature and governor have to focus on and resolve in the year 2021.
See you next week.
January 13, 2020 - Alabama May Lose A Congressional Seat, but Maybe Not
It has been speculated for several years that Alabama could lose a congressional seat after the 2020 Census. It was thought to be a foregone conclusion. However, in recent days, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates indicate that we might dodge that bullet. They say we are on the cusp and if we have had a good count, we could keep our current seven seats in congress.
This will be extremely beneficial for Alabama if this miracle occurs. We have a very heavy laden Republican congressional delegation. We have six Republicans and one lone Democrat. We have two freshmen Republican congressmen, Jerry Carl in the 1st District and Barry Moore in the 2nd District. Both of these men will be reliably Republican votes.
Congressman Robert Aderholt is our most powerful and senior member of congress. He is entering his 25th year in the House of Representatives and is the ranking Republican on the House Appropriations Committee.
Congressman Mike Rogers is beginning his 17th year in the House and has just become the ranking Republican on the Armed Services Committee. If the Republicans win the majority in the House in the 2022 elections, then Aderholt and Rogers will become the chairmen of these two prestigious and important committees.
Our lone Democrat Terri Sewell could be our most important member as we enter 2021. She is in the House leadership and is widely admired and respected within the Democratic caucus. The Democrats hold the majority in congress as well as the White House, which puts her in the catbird seat.
If we do lose a seat, it will be difficult task to reshape the state’s districts. If that occurs, this is how I see it shaking out.
Let us begin with our Democratic district held by Congresswoman Sewell. Our state population is over 30% African American. Therefore, the U.S. Justice Department will not allow you to terminate our dedicated Democratic African American district. In fact, they would like to see two, but it cannot be accomplished.
Ms. Sewell’s 7th District will become the 6th District and will encompass a large portion of the state. It will begin with Birmingham and get the metro African American areas of Jefferson, Tuscaloosa, and Montgomery and will also have to pick up the rural counties north of Mobile, which have traditionally been in the 1st District. She will represent the entire Black Belt and will pick up the counties of Clarke, Washington, Wilcox, Monroe, Escambia and Butler.
The Black Belt is losing population. The population of the State of Alabama is moving northward toward Huntsville. The current 6th District, held by Republican Gary Palmer, will become the new 5th District. It will basically remain unaltered, as the strongholds of Jefferson and Shelby Counties have kept pace with the national population growth.
The Huntsville 5th District of Republican Mo Brooks is where the growth is in the state. It will shrink geographically to essentially be a Huntsville/Madison County, Limestone County, Morgan County and GOP district.
Our Senior Congressman Robert Aderholt will retain his northwest and north central Alabama core constituency, including Walker, Cullman, Marshall Counties and all the Sand Mountain area. He may go into Huntsville. He may also like to retain his 4th District number.
Mike Rogers’ 3rd District will become the new 2nd District. It will keep his home area of Anniston and Calhoun County, as well as the growth areas of Auburn, Opelika and Lee County.
This is where you start dissecting the current 2nd District. The populous counties of Elmore and Autauga, along with the suburbs of East Montgomery/Pike Road, must go northward to Mike Rogers new 2nd District. The 1st District of Mobile and Baldwin remain the 1st District. Baldwin has grown extensively, and these two counties make up a congressional district. Therefore, new Congressman Jerry Carl will be safe.
I guess you folks in the Wiregrass, and especially Barry Moore, are wondering where you go. The counties of Houston, Dale, Coffee and Covington either go into the new 2nd District by drawing an arrow through Henry, Barbour, Macon, and Russell and making a super east Alabama district; or, depending on the census count, you draw an arrow through Escambia and pull Dothan and the Wiregrass into the Mobile/Baldwin 1st District.
Wherever the Wiregrass goes, it will make that district even more super Republican. It is the most conservative Republican area of the state. It will be interesting to see. This, of course, is just my prognostication. The state legislature will draw the lines next year after all the census figures are counted and revealed.
See you next week.
January 6, 2021 - Reapportionment Will Be Paramount Issue with Legislature
As we close the book on 2020, we will close the door on national politics and get back to the basics, good old Alabama politics. That’s my game. It is what I know and like to write and talk about. Some say my prognostications and observations on Alabama politics are sometimes accurate. However, not so much so on the national level.
About a decade ago there was an open presidential race and a spirited Republican battle for the nomination had begun. One of the entrants stood out to me. U.S. Senator Fred Thompson from Tennessee looked like the real thing to me. He was tall, tough, articulate, a movie star, and major player in the Watergate hearings. He looked like a president. He had a deep authoritative voice and gravitas and he had done a good job as a U.S. Senator from Tennessee. He actually had been born in Alabama.
So I wrote a glowing column about how he looked like presidential timber. I went out on a limb and boldly predicted that he was going to win the Republican nomination and would go on to win the presidency. My profuseness was so pronounced that soon after the column was printed it was picked up by his campaign and his wife called me from Nashville and thanked me for my comments. A week later Thompson dropped out of the race. So much for my presidential prognostications.
The Governor and Legislature have a myriad of issues to tackle as the new year begins. A good many issues have to be addressed in the upcoming regular session, which begins in less than a month. The most prevailing problem is the fact that the U.S. Justice Department has sued the state for our overcrowded prisons. They convene in Montgomery the first week of February.
Many of the leaders of the legislature were hoping and somewhat expecting the governor to call a Special Session or two prior to the Regular Session. There are a lot of issues that have to be addressed and are delinquent due to COVID cutting the 2020 Regular Session in half and there is concern that COVID could kill part of this year’s session. It will indeed make a precarious environment inside the Statehouse. There are economic development bills that need passing and a ton of local bills legislators need to pass for their districts and then there are big ticket items like the prison problems.
Regardless of how important all of the substantive state issues are, nothing will be as paramount to legislators as reapportionment or the redistricting of their own districts. Self-preservation will prevail. The United States Census is taken every 10 years for a reason. The U.S. Constitution, and concurrently all state constitutions, mandate the count for one reason – to make all congressional and legislative districts have the same number of people. Thus the saying, “one person, one vote.” The power of the pencil is granted to the state legislature to draw their own lines and the power rests with them to draw the congressional lines for the state. If indeed, we do lose a congressional seat, then that task becomes exponentially more difficult than if we had our current seven districts.
Drawing their own lines will be their primary interest. All 105 House members and all 35 State Senate districts will be drafted and designed by the legislature. Being on the Reapportionment Committee is a plum position at this time. Like most pieces of a legislative puzzle, the resolution to a large degree is accomplished by and within a committee. Every district will be reconfigured to some degree because people do move around and some locales change more than others. Therefore, there becomes a ripple effect all over the state. The Republicans have control of the majority and will use the legislative pencil to retain their super majority. However, protecting their own incumbency will supersede party loyalty. Although, both can probably be achieved.
This 2021 reapportionment is much more pressing than 10 years ago in 2011. They had the luxury of casually passing congressional lines for the 2012 elections. However, legislators did not run until 2014. So the Legislature passed a congressional map in 2011, and legislative map in 2012 at a leisurely pace.
They are under the gun to get both done this year, because the legislature and congress run in 2022. Indeed, they will have to get both done by June of this year, because fundraising for the June 2022 primaries begins this June.
Look for there to be two Special Sessions between now and June – one for congressional redistricting and one for legislative reapportionment.
Let the games begin.
See you next week.
December 30, 2020 - We Lost Some Good Ones This Year
As is my annual ritual, my yearend column pays tribute to Alabama political legends who have passed away during the year.
Sonny Cauthen passed away in Montgomery at age 70. He was the ultimate inside man in Alabama politics. Sonny was a lobbyist before lobbying was a business. He kept his cards close to his vest and you never knew what he was doing. Sonny was the ultimate optimist who knew what needed to be achieved and found like-minded allies with whom to work. When he had something to get done, he bulldozed ahead and achieved his mission. Sonny was a yellow dog Democrat who believed in equal treatment and rewarding hard work. He was an avid outdoorsman and hunter and mentored a good many young men in Montgomery.
Another Montgomerian who will never be forgotten was Representative Alvin Holmes, who passed away at 81. Like Sonny, Alvin was born and raised and lived his entire life in his hometown of Montgomery. He, too, was a real Democrat and an icon in Alabama politics. Alvin represented the people of Montgomery for 44-years in the Alabama House of Representatives. He was one of the most dynamic and outspoken legislators in Alabama history, as well as one of the longest serving members.
I had the opportunity to serve with Alvin for close to two decades in the legislature. We shared a common interest in Alabama political history. In fact, Alvin taught history at Alabama State University for a long time. He was always mindful of the needs of his district, as well as black citizens throughout the state. Alvin was one of the first Civil Rights leaders in Montgomery and Alabama. He helped organize the Alabama Democratic Conference and was Joe Reed’s chief lieutenant for years.
Ironically, we lost another Civil Rights icon this year. John Lewis was born in rural Pike County in the community of Banks. After graduating from college, John joined the Dr. Martin Luther King as a soldier in the army for Civil Rights. John was beaten by Alabama State Troopers near the Edmund Pettus Bridge on the infamous Bloody Sunday Selma to Montgomery march. He became a Civil Rights legend in America. He was one of Dr. King’s closest allies. John became almost as renowned worldwide as a Civil Rights leader as Dr. King. John moved to Atlanta with Dr. King and was elected to the U.S. Congress from Atlanta and served 33 years with distinction. Even though John was a national celebrity, he would take time out of his busy schedule to drive from Atlanta to rural Pike County to go to church with his mother at her beloved Antioch Baptist Church. John died of pancreatic cancer in July at age 80.
Another Alabama political legend, John Dorrill, passed away in January at age 90. Ironically, John Dorrill and John Lewis were both born and raised in rural Pike County near Troy. John Dorrill went to work for the powerful Alabama Farmers Federation shortly after graduating from Auburn. He worked for the Federation for 43 years. For the last 20 years of his career, he oversaw and was the mastermind of their political plans and operations as Executive Director of the Federation. He retired and lived out his final years on his ancestral home place in Pike County. John Dorrill was one of my political mentors and friends.
Another Montgomery political icon, former Republican State Senator Larry Dixon, passed away only a few weeks ago from COVID-19 complications at age 78. He served over 20 years in the state legislature. Larry epitomized the conservative Republican, and his voting record was right in line with his Montgomery constituency. He was known as “Montgomery’s State Senator” but his ultimate legacy may be as a great family man. Larry was a devoted husband to his wife, Gaynell, and father to his two daughters. Larry was a good man.
Former Alabama Supreme Court Judge Hugh Maddox recently passed away at age 90. Judge Maddox served 31 years on the Alabama Supreme Court before his retirement in 2001.
One of my favorite fellow legislators and friends, Representative Richard Laird of Roanoke, passed away last week from COVID-19. He was 81 and served 36 years in the Alabama House of Representatives. Richard was a great man and very conservative legislator.
In addition to Richard Laird, Alvin Holmes, and Larry Dixon, several other veteran Alabama legislators passed away this year including Ron Johnson, Jack Page and James Thomas.
We lost some good ones this year, who will definitely be missed as we head into 2021.
Happy New Year.
December 23, 2020 - Republican Majority in the U.S. Senate is more important to Alabama than the Presidency
As this 2020 Presidential election year comes to a close, allow me to share some final thoughts on the results with you.
As you might expect, with this being the year of one of the worst pandemic viruses in human history, it would have an effect on politics. Surprisingly, given the fact that people were told to not go out and be around others, you had a massive turnout nationwide. In Alabama, the voter turnout was unprecedented and record breaking, especially among Republican voters. Donald Trump’s popularity in the state drove the turnout. He eclipsed his 62% landslide against Hillary Clinton. He garnered 63% of the amazing vote and provided coattails for Republican Tommy Tuberville and allowed the Coach to annihilate Democrat Doug Jones by a whopping 60 to 40 margin.
This year’s vote confirms the fact that a Democrat cannot win a statewide race in the Heart of Dixie. If Democrat Doug Jones can outspend Republican Tuberville $25 million to $7 million, a 4 to 1 advantage, but only manage to get 40% of the vote, that ought to tell you something. Forty percent appears to be the maximum threshold for a well-financed, articulate Democrat in the state. Currently we have 38 elected statewide officeholders in Alabama and all 38 are Republicans. Therefore, winning the Republican nomination for a statewide office in Alabama is tantamount to election.
The nation is divided politically in a deep chasm. Most of rural, middle America in the Heartland of the country is colored Republican red. The East and West coast metropolitan states, primarily New York and California are liberal blue states. If you take out the large runup of votes in California for Democrat Biden, then the race was close to being 50/50 between Trump and Biden. However, the national popular vote is irrelevant as we elect our president under an electoral college system.
This election confirmed that there are 10 battleground states where the election is decided. In the other 40 states, the hay is in the barn. Alabama is reliably Republican, and California is solidly Democratic. Therefore, sophisticated, pinpoint campaigning is focused on Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and now the sunbelt states of Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. Campaign strategists can even determine the zip codes, neighborhoods, and locales that will determine the outcome in these swing states.
It was obvious that Democrats knew all along that the race would boil down to Michigan, Wisconsin and especially Pennsylvania. Democrats had lost these three states by a razor thin margin to Trump in 2016 and they were the reason Trump edged Hillary Clinton. The key to victory was turning out the Democratic African American vote in Philadelphia and Detroit. Early voting and especially mail in voting helped accomplish this mission.
Another proven political maxim applied, “Primarily, more people vote against someone than for someone.” More people voted against Donald Trump than voted for Joe Biden.
One final thought on presidential politics. The national television networks are unabashedly and unashamedly biased. All of them, and polling may be dead. Very few people, especially Republicans, will trust poll numbers again. One final day poll had Biden beating Trump by 18 points in Wisconsin. He carried the state by less than 1%.
More importantly for Alabama is that the Republican party will more than likely keep the majority in the United States Senate. In the Senate the majority party makes the rules and gets all the committee chairmanships. Our Senior Senator, Richard Shelby, will retain the chairmanship of the Senate Appropriations Committee as well as Chairman of the subcommittee on Defense Appropriations.
If you do not think federal defense dollars are important to Alabama, you best think again. No state in the nation benefits more from federal defense dollars than Alabama. Shelby’s prowess at bringing home the bacon to Alabama is legendary. His chairmanship of the Senate Appropriations Committee is probably Alabama’s number one economic engine. Therefore, Tuberville’s defeat of Jones was good for Alabama because it allowed for a Republican pickup over a Democrat and probably insured the Republican majority in the Senate.
The current Senate count is 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats. There are two seats in Georgia that will be decided in Special Election runoffs on January 5. The Republicans will be favored to keep these two seats.
In closing, for Alabama’s sake economically, it is more important that the U.S. Senate is majority Republican because of Richard Shelby than who won the presidency.
See you next week.
December 16, 2020 - An Election Year to Remember
As we close out this year of COVID and presidential politics many of you are still in discussions about Donald Trump. Some are still enthralled with the most colorful and controversial character in my presidential memory and are saying the election was stolen from him. Others are saying he is the most egocentric and crooked person to ever sit in the oval office.
Allow me to disagree with both sides. In my lifetime no man could come close to comparing with one Lyndon B. Johnson when it comes to crookedness, crudeness, and audacity. He was the epitome of an unbridled, unconscionable thirst for power. No election could be more brazenly stolen than LBJ’s means of assent to power in this first election to the U.S. Senate in 1948.
Johnson was a tall tough young East Texas Congressman making his play for a Senate seat from the Lone Star State. Most Texans thought it was a Don Quixote kamikaze mission because he was running against the legendary Texas Governor Coke Stevenson.
The Governor was a revered figure in the state. He epitomized a Texas legend. He was a successful self-made man who had built a large ranch and cattle empire. He was much like the father figure, Ben Cartwright, played by Lorne Green in the old television series Bonanza. Stevenson was generous, plain spoken and very conservative. He had been a very good governor. Stevenson was from the old school and renowned for his integrity and he was above reproach.
Johnson was just the opposite. He had already earned the reputation that when it came to winning that was all that counted, and character, integrity, and honesty went out the window.
As might be expected, Johnson had unlimited campaign money, a lot of which was supplied by the Brown and Root Construction Company that is now Halliburton, which by the way is a major player in Senate races today. Johnson outspent Stevenson 10-to-1 as Stevenson would not ask for contributions.
Johnson employed new, modern campaign devices like polling and he even used a helicopter to land at rural towns throughout the gigantic state. He crisscrossed Texas and not only outspent Stevenson 10-to-1, he outworked him by the same measure. His hand was swollen from handshaking.
Coke Stevenson still beat Lyndon Johnson. However, Johnson was not going to take defeat. Duval County on the Mexican Border was known as the most corrupt political county in Texas, if not in the nation. It was legendary for bold, unadulterated vote manipulation. Johnson had cornered the bosses of Duval County and they held their votes out in case Johnson needed them.
Three days after Stevenson’s apparent victory, Duval came in. It had voted more than twice as many people as who lived there. Johnson got over 90% of the Duval votes that were suspiciously cast. When they got the Duval votes to Austin, it still was not enough to overtake Coke Stevenson.
Not to be outdone, Duval officials swore under oath that a box was still out. They said Box 13 has not reported. They came back five days later with just enough votes for Lyndon to claim victory. The margin of victory in the state of Texas was 83 votes.
When Johnson got to Washington as a freshman senator, the entire Senate and most people in Texas and a good many political observers around the nation, knew that Johnson and his allies had stolen the 1948 Texas Senate race. Thus, Senators and Washington insiders gave him the dubious nickname of “Landslide Lyndon” because of his 83-vote margin. Many people think that nickname was a reference to his actual landslide victory over Barry Goldwater in 1964, but it came from his unscrupulous election to the Senate in 1948.
A legendary story came out of that election about stealing an election or as some say, counting someone out. Supposedly, as Lyndon’s cronies were harvesting the last batch of needed votes from the infamous Box 13, they were going through an old Mexican-American Cemetery taking names of long passed folks either from Mexico or Duval County off of tombstones to vote them posthumously after the fact. Lyndon was actually accompanying the Duval voting officials to make sure they voted all the residents in the cemetery. They got to an old marker that was indiscernible. The harvester shouted out to Lyndon we cannot make out this name. Johnson replied, “Hell, make him up a name, he has as much right to vote as the rest of them in here.”
See you next week.
December 9, 2020 - Donald Trump has a profound Legacy in Presidential History, especially if you are a Conservative American
Presidential historians and most astute national political observers and chroniclers have concluded that the most profound legacy a president can achieve is the appointment of United States Supreme Court Justices. Presidents serve four-year terms. Justices serve for a lifetime.
The Supreme Court of the United States is the ultimate final word on law and public policy in the United States. After they are appointed by the president and confirmed by the U.S. Senate, they are impregnable to political whims or influence. They are sovereign and omnipotent. They are treated royally and usually serve on the high tribunal for over two decades or more.
Therefore, whether you like Donald J. Trump or not, he has a legacy. Most presidents are fortunate if they are able to name one justice to the court. Trump, over his four-year term appointed and had confirmed three. If you are a conservative Republican, this feat by President Trump makes him one of the most bulwark conservative presidents in history. He has cemented his legacy forever and changed the judicial philosophy of the court for the next generation.
Trumps three appointments are not only well qualified, polished, distinguished, moderate conservatives, they are also young. Justice Neil Gorsuch is 53. He replaced Justice Anthony Kennedy who retired. Justice Brett Kavanaugh is 55. He replaced arch conservative Justice Anton Scalia. The most consequential appointment by President Trump is the appointment and confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. She is only 48 and a solid conservative.
Trump’s appointment of Judge Amy Barrett is truly historical. This appointment changed the entire ideology of the court to a solidly six-to-three conservative majority. Barrett’s appointment is the most pivotal block in Trump’s rebuilding of the Court. In the Gorsuch and Kavanaugh appointments you replaced conservatives with conservatives. In Barrett, you are replacing a woman with a woman, but more importantly you are replacing one of the most liberal justices in history with potentially one of the most conservative. In addition, at 48 Barrett will preside for the next three decades as will probably Gorsuch and Kavanaugh.
Along with these three conservative justices to the Supreme Court, President Donald Trump has been able to appoint nearly 300 federal judges to the lower federal courts throughout America. Trump could not have accomplished this generational change of the court without the advice and consent of a Republican majority United States Senate.
The Republican conservative stamp is also indelibly planted on the federal courts in Alabama. Senator Richard Shelby, in congruence with the Trump administration, has completely reshaped Alabama’s federal judiciary with very young, extremely qualified, conservative judges.
Speaking of our United States Senators, our Senior Senator Richard Shelby was granted the omnipotent power to select all of our new, young, conservative judges throughout all of our districts – southern, middle and northern – not only because of his power, prestige and seniority, but also because he was our only Republican senator.
Our Junior U.S. Senate Seat has been held by a national liberal Democrat Doug Jones for the past three years. During his tenure, he toed the Democratic Senate line and wore that hat as the pawn and clone of the Democratic leadership in the Senate. Chuck Schumer told Jones to vote against Judges Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Barrett only because they were conservative Republican appointees.
His refusal to even meet with Justice Amy Barrett showed a total lack of class and southern civility and gentlemanly manners. It was also revealed to me that he was angling to appease his liberal Democratic brethren in order to be Joe Biden’s Attorney General. Yes, folks, you heard me right. Do not be surprised if Doug Jones is not the next Attorney General of the United State in the Biden Administration.
The bottom line is if you are a conservative American, Donald J. Trump has a profound legacy in presidential history with three conservative appointments to the United States Supreme Court.
See you next week.
December 2, 2020 - COVID killed the Don
Around Labor Day when this year’s presidential campaign was beginning to heat up, I wrote a column about the classic 1960 presidential contest between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon. This pivotal presidential race marked the beginning of television as the premier political medium. The first televised presidential debate that year was the turning point of that campaign. Kennedy won the Whitehouse with his performance or as some would say, Nixon lost by his appearance on TV that fateful night in October of 1960.
A lot has changed in the past 60 years, America was a more Ozzie and Harriet, Andy Griffith Mayberry America. There was not a lot of difference, philosophically or ideologically, between a Republican Kansas farmer and a Blue-Collar, Democratic factory worker in Pennsylvania. They both believed in American values of decency and hard work. Even though the Pennsylvanian was a Union man who tended to vote Democratic and was probably a Catholic, and the Kansas farmer voted Republican and was a protestant. They both were Christian conservatives.
The country was more homogenous and amicable. This America lent itself to a close presidential contest where 40 states were in play in the Electoral College, and only 10 predetermined. Today it is just the opposite, 10 states are in play and 40 predetermined.
The country is more divided than at any time since the Civil War. You are cemented into either a conservative Republican tribe or a liberal Democratic tribe, and there is no peace pipe to be smoked. There are very few independent voters in the middle. It is these truly undecided swing voters that decide the presidential race. Also, it is even a further defined swing voter who resides in a swing state – primarily the states of Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and now Georgia.
Both parties got their bases out to the maximum. Democrats hated Donald Trump. Republicans loath Nancy Pelosi and Bernie Sanders. They stoked every fire possible and the two tribes almost broke about even.
Donald J. Trump lost the middle of America swing voter in the key battleground states and he lost them overwhelmingly. Why? You ask: It is simple, the COVID pandemic. It would have been impossible for any humble, genuinely caring, kind and compassionate president to overcome a pandemic that has killed over 250,000 people and annihilated the economy. A legendary, revered leader like Franklin Delano Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan would have had a hard time surviving this Communist Chinese invasion of our nation. This Chinese generated epidemic destroyed our economy.
It is always about the economy. Trump’s administration was the overseer of the most robust economy in years. He could have possibly won reelection with this rosy economy. However, the March invasion of the Chinese coronavirus derailed the Trump Train. There is an old political adage that says, “If you claim credit for the rain, you got to take blame for the drought.
Any presidential election campaign where there is an incumbent president up for reelection is a referendum on that President. Therefore, this presential race was all about Trump. He would have had to have been an FDR or Reagan to have survived the events of this year. Folks, Trump is no FDR or Reagan.
To win a presidency, people have to like you. Very few people genuinely like Donald Trump. All exit polling revealed that even the most ardent Republicans disliked Trump the man. They were only voting for him because he was a proven true-blue, hard core conservative. Even evangelical conservatives voted for him knowing his personal and business life was not exemplary of a practicing Christian, but he was the vessel for conservative Supreme Court Justices.
However, key swing voters, primarily suburban women, just did not like a brash, irreverent, egocentric, irrational, narcissist as their president. They had seen the sideshow on television and Twitter for over three years and they had had enough. There is another tried and true maxim, “More people vote against someone than for someone.” This played out to the nines on election day. Very few people voted for Joe Biden. They voted against Donald Trump.
See you next week.
November 25, 2020 - Doug Jones Annihilation Reaffirms Mantra that Winning the Republican Nomination for Statewide Office in Alabama is Tantamount to Election
The defeat of Democrat Doug Jones in our United States Senate Seat is easy to explain. It is a Republican seat. Alabama is one of if not the most Republican states in America.
The nation is totally divided into clearly defined ideological tribes. You are either a right-wing conservative Republican or a left-wing liberal Democrat. There are very few true independent voters.
In Alabama there is an overwhelming majority of conservative Republicans. These two tribes vote a straight Republican ticket or a straight Democratic ticket. A good many just pull the straight ticket lever.
Jones never had a chance. Many of us, who are longtime political observers, were curious as to whether Jones would toe the liberal Democratic line when he got to Washington or moderate somewhat and try to throw the Republican conservatives a bone or two. He stuck true to his colors and philosophy. Doug Jones has always been a liberal national Democrat and he stayed true to his beliefs.
Having been an upfront political observer and participant of Alabama politics for the past 40 to 50 years, I have known most of the significant political players on the Alabama political stage during those years. Even though Doug Jones and I are around the same age and attended the University of Alabama, I never got to know him well. He was on the periphery as a party politician. He was always an ardent card-carrying loyal leader of the Democratic party. He was a stalwart Democrat when they were the majority party. Then when most folks left to become Republicans, he stayed and became more avid. He was a real Democrat.
Over the years, Jones never strayed from proudly espousing that he was a liberal national Democrat. He openly and ardently supported George McGovern, Walter Mondale, Joe Biden several times, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Jones is a true-blue, liberal, national Democrat. Most of us were surprised when he came out of his backroom political party role and private law practice to run for public office. He was shrewd enough to see the possibility that in a special election with a polarizing, tarnished candidate, he could squeak out a miraculous win in a special election to a U.S. Senate seat from Alabama as a Democrat.
Many of us watched the irascible demagogue George Wallace dominate Alabama politics. Wallace would make numerous Don Quixote forays into presidential politics, spitting out the message, “There ain’t a dimes worth of difference between the national Democratic and Republican parties,” and he was actually pretty close to right.
However, folks, I am here to tell you that today in 2020 there is a lot of difference, philosophically, in the national Democratic party of Bernie Sanders, Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren and Doug Jones and the national Republican party of Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz and Richard Shelby.
The chasm is deep and wide. Jones voted right down the line with his liberal Democratic colleagues. Even voting against Trump’s two conservative Supreme Court appointments for no reason other than they were conservative and Republican appointees.
The question is, would it have made any difference in Jones’ reelection chances had he compromised his liberal Democratic philosophy and voted with the Republican majority on some key votes? The answer is a resounding no. He would not have won with a “D” behind his name in a red Republican state in a presidential year, regardless. More than likely over 60% of the votes cast in the Heart of Dixie were straight Republican ticket voting.
Jones has to be respected for sticking to his principles. He is a good and honest man with a lot of character and integrity. He just thinks and believes differently than an overwhelming number of his fellow Alabamians. He stayed true to the old political maxim that you dance with the one that brung you. He got and spent $18 million dollars of left-wing money in his race against Roy Moore, mostly from California. He allied and voted with his California donors over his nearly three-year tenure. They figured he was their third senator so they rewarded him with $25 million this time. He was able to outspend Republican Tommy Tuberville $25 million to $7 million. Even with an ungodly amount of California money Jones could only garner 40% of the vote.
This race reaffirms the mantra and hard fact that winning the Republican nomination for a statewide office in Alabama is tantamount to election in the Heart of Dixie.
See you next week.
November 18, 2020 - Turnout for Presidential Election Shatters Record in Alabama
On the morning of the momentous November 3 Presidential Election Day, I began my day on my hometown radio station, WTBF in Troy, which has been my tradition for election days for over 30 years. As the polls began to open around 7 a.m., we began getting calls that the people were lined up for almost a mile outside of the two most populous voting locations in Pike County. Then, I started getting texts that a good many of the Republican boxes in major North Alabama cities had people waiting in line for two to three hours in voting precincts in Jasper, Hamilton, Cullman and Huntsville. Folks in Talladega were showing up in droves driven by a local amendment. When I voted around 10 a.m., the voting officials informed me that more people had already voted in record breaking numbers.
About that time, I was receiving texts from other South Alabama locales like Daphne and Fairhope in Baldwin County and Enterprise and Ozark in the Wiregrass that records were going out the window. In Dothan, where I had spoken the day before, people were calling to tell me that records were being shattered at the Westgate polling place, which is one of the largest Republican boxes in the state. When I went on the popular Mobile talk radio Jeff Poor Show at 10:30 a.m., Jeff said reports were coming in of an unbelievable turnout.
During the noon hour, I traversed to Montgomery for Talk Radio and interviews with my Capitol City television home, the Alabama News Network CBS 8 and ABC 32. I saw the same thing happening. At St. James Methodist Church where most of Wynlakes votes there were two-hour long lines. At Woodland Methodist in Pike Road it was two to three, and at most of the Republican boxes in Elmore County, especially Millbrook and Wetumpka, there were three hour waits.
As I headed on to Birmingham for my election night TV appearance the scene in Shelby and Jefferson Counties was more of the same, if not more pronounced. My daughter, who votes at Vestavia Hills United Methodist Church said the line had been out the door and around the church all day with no parking. The two major voting locations of Hoover, the Finlay Center and Hoover Met, had lines that reached almost a mile.
Around 6:00 p.m., while discussing the unprecedented turnout with Secretary of State John Merrill, who had joined me on CBS 42, we saw an unbelievable line out the street at the prestigious Church of the Highlands voting location in Tuscaloosa. The coup de gras was at around 9:30 p.m. a good two-and-a-half-hours after the polls had closed, our TV cameras showed a picture of Trussville City Hall where voters were still waiting in line to cast their ballot even though Trump and Tuberville had already been declared the winners by the Associated Press.
Secretary of State John Merrill confirmed what I knew by that time, that indeed the state of Alabama had an unprecedented, unbelievable, amazing, record breaking turnout – 2.3 million Alabamians voted despite COVID which shattered any previous voting participation record.
The driving force had to unquestionably be driven by a fervor to vote for President Donald J. Trump. The vote for President Trump was the largest for any candidate in the history of the state. Trump garnered an amazing 62.7% of the vote, which surpassed his 62% against Hillary Clinton. He provided immense coattails for Coach Tommy Tuberville who beat our-anomaly, liberal, two-year-tenured Democratic Senator Doug Jones by an amazing 60-to-40 shellacking. Tuberville is now Senator Tommy Tuberville.
PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh set a record in her reelection bid with almost 1.4 million votes. She gained the record by receiving the most votes for any candidate in a contested race outside the Presidency in state history.
Tuberville set the record for most votes for any senatorial candidate in state history. He trounced Jones by over 20 points despite being outspent 4-to-1.
According to unofficial election night results the top Alabama Counties for Trump were Winston 90.3%, Cleburne 89.7%, Blount 89.6%, Marion 88.4% and Cullman 88.2%. They were the brightest red in the ruby red Heart of Dixie.
See you next week.