Our 2026 General Election is in less than two weeks. With it being a midterm election year, the turnout will more than likely be 33% to 36%.

 

In Alabama, historically this has been our big election year. We, and only 13 other states, hold our major elections in non-presidential years. This is referred to in old Alabama political circles as our gubernatorial year. Indeed, we do elect our governor and all our constitutional officeholders this year. More importantly, we elect all our state legislators on November 3. All 35 State Senate seats and all 105 House seats are on the ballot. Our state constitution vests great powers to the legislative branch.

 

The Governor’s race is the “biggie” next week. The 140 legislative races are not as glamorous and go under the radar screen, but they are especially important. Legislative races have become analogous to Congressional races where an incumbent is essentially improbable to defeat. Forty years ago, the typical House Seat cost $50,000 to $60,000; today, it costs $400,000. Forty years ago, a State Senate Seat could be won with $150,000 to $200,000; today, it is close to $1 million. Most of the special interest money goes to State House and Senate races. They know where their bread is buttered. Legislative incumbency has become so pronounced that an amazing 80% of the legislature has run unopposed this year.

 

Alabama is a ruby red Republican state. All 23 of Alabama’s statewide offices are held by a Republican. We have not elected a Democratic Governor in 30 years, and that was an anomaly.

 

Those of us who observe state politics closely, have put a circle around the 2018 Governor’s race. Kay Ivey was running for a first elective–term eight years ago against a formidable Democratic challenger, Walt Maddox. The Tuscaloosa Mayor Maddox was the perfect Democratic candidate. He was not perceived as a wild-eyed liberal. He had been, and continues to be, a great Mayor of the Druid City. He ran a flawless, well-funded campaign. He got every vote that could be gotten. Maddox, the Democrat, got 40%. Kay Ivey, the Republican, got 60%. Therefore, the standard was set that in a hotly contested statewide race, especially for Governor or U.S. Senate, the Republican will win 60/40. That has been the threshold.

 

The threshold was confirmed six years ago when Doug Jones was pitted against Tommy Tuberville in the U.S. Senate race. Jones was an incumbent who had won a fluke, ultra-anomaly, special election against embattled extremist, Roy Moore. Jonesthen went to Washington and for two and half years, proceeded to stake out a position as being one of the most liberal Democratic Senators in the U.S. Senate. His voting record mirrored Socialist Bernie Sanders. The nation looked on in amazement that one of the reddest and conservative Republican states in America had a socialist Democrat in one of their Senate seats. It was as though Alabama had relinquished one of our Senate seats to California.

 

Jones parlayed his liberal record into becoming the hero of liberal Democratic donors throughout the nation. He raised and spent $24 million of national liberal Democratic money in the 2020 Senate race. Despite being outspent four to one, Coach Tuberville beat Jones 60/40. Thus, the threshold of 40% had been totally confirmed.

 

The rematch between Coach Tommy Tuberville and liberal Doug Jones has been resurrected in this year’s Governor’s race.

 

Folks, we are a Republican enclave, but we are not on a total distant island to the rest of the country. If you are only a casual observer of politics, and only have a cursory view of polling, there is a Democratic tidal wave heading into next Tuesday’s election.

 

The numbers on Trump and his administration are devasting. The Democrats will more than likely take the U.S. House of Representatives and could take the Senate. This tsunami will have an effect here in Alabama. The race for Governor will be closer than ever expected. The Democrats and Doug Jones will shatter the 40% threshold.

 

Tuberville more than likely will prevail, but there could be a loss of five to six safe Republican legislative seats in the urban purple–changing counties like Madison and maybe even Jefferson.

 

Alabama Republicans are extremely interested in the Jefferson County Commission Race. Popular incumbent, Jimmie Stephens, is pitted against an extreme radical Democrat in this race.

The Republicans are putting an emphasis on reelectingconservative Republican, Jefferson County CommissionChairman, Jimmie Stephens, so that they will continue to have a three to two advantage in the state’s most populous county.

 

See you next week.