This is a midterm election year in the United States. Most states elect their Governors and Legislators in the same year as the President. In fact, 34 of the 50 U.S. States elect their Governors for four-year terms during Presidential elections, while Vermont and New Hampshire elect governors to two-year terms in both midterm and Presidential election years. Therefore, we in Alabama and 13 other states, mostly southern states, hold our big contests for governor, all statewide constitutional offices, and all 140 legislative seats in what the nation refers to as midterm or off-year election years.

 

We, in Alabama, refer to this year as our gubernatorial year. In past decades, we would have a good Governor’s race every four years. Because the Governor of Alabama was precluded from running, but for one term, succession was prohibited by law. It has now been changed. That is why Kay Ivey has been governor for 10 years.

 

As late as 60 years ago, there were more votes cast in the Democratic Primary for Governor than for President. The highest percentage turnout for any race in Alabama’s history was in 1966 when Lurleen Wallace won the Governor’s race over eight prominent, male opponents without a runoff. Kay Ivey’s first experience in politics was working in Lurleen Wallce’s 1966 election.

 

Midterm elections historically generate lower voter turnout than presidential elections. While presidential elections have turnouts of 50 to 60 percent, only about 40 percent of those eligible to vote go to the polls in midterm elections.

 

All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, and 33 of the 100 Seats in the U.S Senate are up this year.Republicans have a slight majority in the Senate, and very slight, some say razor thin, majority in the U.S. House.

 

Most pundits, and indeed history says, that the Democrats will garner control of the U.S. House this year. Historically, midterm elections often see the President’s party lose seats in Congress and also see the president’s opposite party opponents gain seats in one or both houses of Congress. The losses endured are consequential and unquestionable according to history. A look back over the past 60 years illustrates this historic narrative.

 

In 1966 the Democrats lost 47 seats under Democrat Lyndon Johnson. In 1970, Republicans lost 12 seats under Republican Richard Nixon. In 1974, Republicans lost 48 seats under Republican Gerald Ford. In 1978, Democrats lost 15 seats under Democrat Jimmy Carter. In 1982, Republicans lost 26 seats under Republican Ronald Reagan. In 1990, Republicans lost eight seats under Republican President George H.W. Bush. In 1994, Democrats lost a whopping 54 seats under Democrat Bill Clinton. In 2006, Republicans lost 33 seats under Republican George W. Bush. In 2010, Democrats sustained an amazing loss of 63 seats under Democratic President Barack Obama. In 2018, Republicans lost 41 seats under Republican President Donald Trump. In 2022, Democrats lost 9 seats under Democrat Joe Biden.

 

Therefore, historically, the odds are stacked against the Republicans not losing seats in congress. However, Republican hopes have been buoyed by the Supreme Court’s dismantling of the Voting Rights Act. The Southern States, which all have Republican majority legislatures, have redrawn their congressional districts to enhance Republican strength in the House from the south. The Southern states will probably swing 10 to 12 seats from Democrat to Republican in the south.

 

We, in Alabama, are expected to swap one seat from Democrat to Republican. Currently, we have five Republican seats, and two Democrats. In a Special Session earlier this year, our Republican Legislature redrew Congressional lines intended to change our make up to six Republicans and one lone Democrat.

 

The district affected is the new Second District, which is reflective of the old traditionally Republican Second District. The composition of Congressional District 2 essentially ties Montgomery into the Wiregrass. Montgomery County is a very Democratic County and the Wiregrass is a very Republican venue.

 

The combatants in this race are Republican Rhett Marques and Democrat Shomari Figures. Congressman Figures is the quasi-incumbent. His residence is in Mobile. On the drawing board in Washington all political analysis says this is a Republican district and that the Republican should win 55 to 45. However, my belief is that it is closer than that. I see Marques and Republicans winning the seat, but at about 52 to 48. The Democratic turnout in Montgomery will be high, especially with a backlash anger over the collapse of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

 

We will soon see, in less than three weeks, on November 3.

 

See you next week.