The 2026 state races have officially begun. The qualifying ended on January 23. It will now be a less than three-month horserace sprint to the finish line.

Our May 19th GOP Primary will be our election day, because winning the Republican Primary is tantamount to election in the Heart of Dixie.

The Governor’s race will not be one of the best races. Coach Tommy Tuberville appears to have a cakewalk coronation tour to the Governor’s office. He has been running full steam ahead for over a year and has $10 million in the bank. He is recognized as the most conservative right-wing politico in the Heart of Dixie, and only has token opposition in the GOP Primary. However, he will spend some money and campaign. He is a prolific and effective campaigner and loves it.

Some of you may be wondering why I do not consider the candidacy of Democratic candidate Doug Jones a challenge to Tuberville. My belief is a Democratic candidate cannot win a statewide race in Alabama, especially Governor, and even more especially, a recognized and proven Bernie Sanders liberal Democrat like Doug Jones. Around 40% of the vote is what a Democratic candidate can get in Alabama. Therefore, Jones is not a viable or serious candidate.

The Lt. Governor’s race may very well be the best contest on the May 19 ballot.

As qualifying ended, there was a lengthy list of seven qualifiers for this race. The list includes Wes Allen, George Childress, Pat Bishop, Rick Pate, Nicole Jones Wadsworth, John Wahl, and Stewart Hill Tankersley.

This will probably boil down to a three-man race between current Secretary of State Wes Allen, Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate, and Republican Party Chairman John Wahl. It will be interesting to see who makes the two-man runoff. Although the female candidate in the race, Nicole Jones Wadsworth, has worked hard and will get some votes.

Secretary of State Wes Allen is the favorite to win this race. He began in earnest over a year ago. He has been like a plow horse and has worked tirelessly. He has raised more money than the other candidates. Money is the mother’s milk of politics, and it will be especially important in a down ballot race with sevenpeople in the race. He has received every important, major pro-business group endorsement, including ALFA and BCA.

In addition, with a large field of candidates in this race, Wes Allen being listed first on the ballot alphabetically may be worth a 10-point advantage. He already has some statewide name recognition, having had a successful four-year tenure as Secretary of State, and has significant name identification in the Wiregrass having been Probate Judge of Pike County for 10 years and a Wiregrass legislator for four years.

Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate will be a major player in this race. He has had a very successful eight year run as Agriculture Commissioner and would probably like to run for another four-year term in that important post. However, he is constitutionally term limited. I have never seen anyone in or around state government or Alabama politics who does not like Rick Pate.

It looked like a two-man race between Allen and Pate until a bombshell was dropped into the race the last night before qualifying. President Donald Trump surprisingly endorsed Republican Party Chairman John Wahl in the Alabama Lt. Governor’s race. Wahl qualified the next day. The big question in this race is whether Wahl can raise the campaign money to tell Alabamians he is the Trump endorsee. Again, money is the mother’s milk of politics. Money equates into media, and media equates into name identification, and name identification equatesinto votes.

The problem with raising money for this job is that this job has no power. Therefore, it lacks interest for special interest donors.

More than likely, this Lt. Governor’s race will extend into a very interesting June runoff.

See you next week.