The nation will elect our 45th president this Tuesday. The word elect is a misnomer. We do not
elect our president. They are selected by the Electoral College. This is a travesty. It is amazing
and appalling that in a country that espouses being the greatest democracy in the world that we
do not have a direct election of the president where the candidate who receives the most votes
from all of the voters throughout the entire nation wins.
If you are watching the election returns on television Tuesday night and you keep watching the
tally of votes nationwide you are wasting your time and the television network is wasting its time
along with doing you an injustice.
It is all about electoral votes. If Barack Obama gets 12,000,001 votes in Florida and Mitt
Romney gets 12,000,000 votes in the Sunshine State then President Obama gets all 29 electoral
votes. Romney’s 12,000,000 votes do not count for anything.
If Mitt Romney gets 2,000,000 votes in Alabama and Barack Obama gets 1,000,000 then
Romney gets all of Alabama’s nine Electoral College votes. However, Romney could have
gotten only 1,000,001 votes and still have received all nine of our electoral votes. The 1,000,000
vote surplus margin is thrown out and Obama’s 1,000,000 votes are thrown out under our current
system.
Polling and past voting histories are very accurate barometers as to what is going to happen
in politics. Therefore, polling and precedent indicate that about 40 of the 50 states are safe,
predetermined outcome states. It is a pretty safe bet that California and New York are going
to vote for the Democratic candidate for president. You can also bet your bottom dollar that
Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina are going to vote for the GOP candidate.
The political pros are so sure of this outcome that both campaigns have ignored 40 states
during this campaign. They not only have not campaigned in 40 states, they have not spent any
money on advertising in these states. We are one of the 40. However, before you feel cheated
and ignored, put yourself in the place of California. They have 15% of the nation’s population
and have contributed 18% of the campaign funds and they have been ignored also and all their
money has been spent elsewhere.
That elsewhere is the nine to ten pivotal swing battleground states. Their demographic makeup
places them in this precious category of not being predictable. They can go either way. They are
in play. These states that have garnered all of the attention, campaign stops and campaign money
are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia. Watch the results
from these states Tuesday night. The most pivotal and important are Florida with 29 electoral
votes and Ohio with 18 electoral votes.
What will drive the vote in these important battleground states? The economy. Barack Obama
won because of the economy in 2008. If he loses Tuesday it will be because of the economy. The
unemployment numbers are critical. That out of work steelworker in Ohio, who voted for Barack
Obama four years ago hoping he would help his plight, if he is still out of a job today, four years
later, will vote for Mitt Romney Tuesday.
Obama has played the ethnic and economic class card to the hilt. He has harped and railed in all
of his appearances in Florida, Ohio and Virginia that Romney is rich and for the rich. He says
he is for ending tax cuts for the rich. Romney counters that Obama, who has never had a job in
the private sector, does not understand economic issues and is in over his head. Not only has he
not helped the economy but that his left wing approach has further hurt the nation’s economic
recovery.
The election will not be close here in Alabama. McCain beat Obama 64 to 36 here in 2008. My
guess is that it will be that bad again this year. Our nine electoral votes are pretty much in the
bank. The only question to be answered on Tuesday night will be the margin of victory for Mitt
Romney.
There are several significant constitutional amendments on our Alabama ballot Tuesday. One of
the most important, as well as non-controversial, is the approval of Amendment 2. Gov. Bentley
is urging approval of this measure, which he sees as being imperative in his efforts to secure new
industry and jobs for the state. There appears to be little or no opposition to the measure.
See you next week.
Steve Flowers
Alabama’s premier columnist and commentator, Steve has analyzed Alabama politics for national television audiences on CBS, PBS, ABC and the British Broadcasting Network. Steve has been an up close participant and observer of the Alabama political scene for more than 50 years and is generally considered the ultimate authority on Alabama politics and Alabama political history.