August 06, 2010
One of the amazing stories that emerged from our gubernatorial primaries was the dissolution of the political adage that money talks in politics. Most pundits pegged Bradley Byrne to be the odds on favorite to win the GOP nomination because he had the big business special interest money solidly behind him. During the course of the primary and runoff his campaign raised and spent $6.9 million. In comparison, Dr. Robert Bentley spent $1.8 million. This is an amazing almost 4 to 1 disparity. That, my friends, is unheard of in Alabama or anywhere else.
The second anomaly in the GOP contest was the fact that Bentley won without using negative ads. This is highly unusual in today’s political world. Voters continually lament the caustic and mean spirited virulence displayed in political attack ads. However, the sad truth is that they are used because they work. In this case, they did not.
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July 30, 2010
In 1949 Dr. V.O. Key, Jr. wrote a book entitled, “Southern Politics in State and Nation.” His book is considered the bible of southern political history. It is still the cornerstone textbook of choice for most courses on southern politics taught at universities throughout the country.
When Key writes about Alabama he has a chapter devoted to a unique but clear premise regarding our state’s politics at that time. His theory is called the “friends and neighbors” politics of Alabama. According to Key, “A powerful localism provides an important ingredient of Alabama factionalism. Candidates for governor tend to poll overwhelming majorities in their home counties and to draw heavy support in adjacent counties.”
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July 23, 2010
When the campaign for governor began in earnest a year ago most experts predicted that at this point and time the candidates left standing for the 2010 general election would be Bradley Byrne and Artur Davis. Instead the field is set with the unlikely pairing of Robert Bentley vs. Ron Sparks. The Mississippi casinos would have certainly put better odds on their boy Bob Riley putting their Alabama competition out of business than Robert Bentley and Ron Sparks prevailing as their parties’ standard bearers for the November general election.
Strange things can happen on the way to a coronation. Artur Davis assumed that because he was an African American that all of his fellow African Americans would inherently embrace him and crown him the Democratic nominee. They disobediently rejected the sophisticated Davis and chose instead a white agriculture commissioner from North Alabama who speaks with a distinct rural twang.
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July 16, 2010
This week will determine who the Republican nominee for governor will be as well as for two other secondary statewide offices. However, a good many of this fall’s contenders were selected without runoffs on June 1st.
Our senior U.S. Senator, Richard Shelby, was nominated over nominal opposition. He received 84% of the primary vote and will face similar token opposition in November. He is coasting to a fifth six-year term. He is generally conceded to be Alabama’s most prominent political figure. He is also one of the most powerful senators in Washington.
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July 09, 2010
The marquee match up in next Tuesday’s upcoming runoff races is the Republican gubernatorial contest between Bradley Byrne and Dr. Robert Bentley. The winner will emerge as the favorite to succeed Gov. Bob Riley. It has been a fun and interesting Republican race with lots of twists and turns.
The obvious surprise has been the emergence of Dr. Robert Bentley. If he prevails in the runoff Tuesday he will be tough to beat in the fall. His negatives are so low that it appears hardly anyone dislikes him. His campaign mantra declaring Alabama’s economy is so bad that we need a doctor and his promise not to take a salary as governor until the economy recovers are as good a slogan as I have seen since Albert Brewer’s 1970 declaration that Alabama needs a fulltime governor.
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July 02, 2010
Bradley Byrne’s bold challenging Paul Hubbert’s omnipotence of Goat Hill was like
waving a red flag in front of a raging bull. As we said last week, Hubbert’s fiefdom is to
completely control the Education Budget and policy. That is his sandbox. He does not
mind allowing the governor to play in his sandbox because after all he is the governor.
However, he thinks it somewhat rude and arrogant if you come to play in his sandbox and
kick sand on him.
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June 25, 2010
As the Republican field for governor began to formulate almost two years ago, the players crystallized early in the game. They all figured that the winner of the primary would have a cakewalk to governor because they assumed that an African American congressman named Artur Davis, who had been Barack Obama’s campaign manager in Alabama, would be their Democratic opponent. Therefore, winning the Republican nomination would be tantamount to election.
From the onset the elephant in the field was former Chief Justice Roy Moore. Early polling revealed the book on Moore. He was relegated to being a one issue candidate. He would be the darling of the religious right. These folks constitute about 25% of the Republican primary electorate. Moore’s famous stance as the Ten Commandments Judge endeared him to these folks. Therefore, early reliable polling revealed that Moore was going to get about 25% of the vote. However, it also revealed that he would be hard pressed to get more than that amount. So the book was written on Moore from the beginning. He was going to get 20-25% and no more and would probably not make the runoff with this threshold limitation. He would have very little money and would not attack anybody. Therefore, the other serious players would have to work around Moore’s capture of 20-25% of the vote from the get go.Read more
June 18, 2010
As the 2010 gubernatorial contest began to formulate almost two years ago, the premier face card in the mix was Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom Jr. He was expected to skate through the Democratic primary unscathed and arrive at the general election dance unblemished by negative ads and with his campaign coffers untapped. It was expected that a strong field of Republicans would clash over the GOP nomination. Throughout their family feud they would pummel each other with negative ads and the winner of the primary would emerge in mid July beaten up and broke. This bruised and broke nominee would face the fresh and flush Folsom with only three months to recover and Folsom would waltz to victory.
However, a funny thing happened on the way to the dance. A young African American congressman from Birmingham boldly declared his candidacy for governor. Once it became apparent that Artur Davis would not back down and was dedicated to running, Folsom had to reevaluate his plan to run for governor. It was really an easy decision for Folsom. He probably did not want to run for governor anyway. He prefers the life of lieutenant governor. You can make money in the private sector and enjoy your family life with plenty of hunting and fishing because the lieutenant governor does not do anything anyway. Folsom likes having the best of both worlds. Therefore, he graciously and happily acquiesced to Davis’ kamikaze mission to end his promising congressional career.
June 11, 2010
The superstars emerging from the June 1st primaries were Ron Sparks and Dr. Robert Bentley. There were a lot of undecided voters in both parties leading up to last Tuesday’s primaries. Obviously the lion’s share of these voters fell to Bentley and Sparks.
Sparks, the two-term Agriculture Commissioner trounced four-term 7th District Congressman Artur Davis 62% to 38% to capture the Democratic nomination for governor. Sparks was elected Agriculture Commissioner in 2002, the same year that Davis defeated incumbent Congressman Earl Hilliard to capture the 7th Congressional District seat. Davis was on a fast track in Washington. If he had stayed the course he could have been one of Alabama’s greatest congressmen, and we have had some good ones over the years.
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June 04, 2010
You have an advantage on me as the results from Tuesday’s primaries are known to you as you read this column because the column was sent to your newspaper prior to the vote. Undoubtedly we are looking at a July 13th runoff for governor on the Republican side. The Democratic nominee has been decided.
The governor’s race is the marquee political event in Alabama politics. This year’s race is even more intriguing because it is the first time in two decades that we have not had an incumbent governor on the ballot.
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