November 04, 2015
The 2016 Presidential election has not only begun, it is well under way. It is now a lengthy process that spans the entire four-year presidential term. The race essentially begins the day a president is sworn into office. Aspirants begin jockeying for the brass ring of American politics the next day and the marathon begins. It becomes exponentially more intriguing when there is no incumbent in the fray as will be the case in 2016.
We have an Electoral College system that makes for a chess game of political maneuvering to capture the White House. On one hand, this appears complicated because the winner of the popular vote in all 50 states is not necessarily the winner. However, it has become much simpler in the past few decades. As a result of our Electoral College election system, only about 12 states really matter. Therefore, the election process boils down to campaigning in only about a dozen battleground states. The remaining 38 states are irrelevant because they are so predictably inclined to vote for one party regardless of who the candidates are for the presidency.
Alabama is one of those reliably safe states. We will vote for the Republican candidate no matter who the nominees are for either party, so we will be ignored in the general election. Donald Duck could be the Republican nominee and we would vote for Donald Duck, along with about 15 other southern and western conservative states. However, do not feel bad. New York and California will be ignored too because these liberal states are going to vote for the Democratic candidate, regardless.
Prior to the GOP convention, we will see a host of Republican presidential candidates vying for the GOP nomination, but not afterwards. Therefore, like most elections, strategist will look to the numbers. It is simple arithmetic which battleground or swing state a candidate can carry and how. More specifically, the experts say it is now even simpler than that – their primary focus is how to get Hispanic voters in those pivotal swing states to vote for their candidate?
Most pundits and prognosticators are saying that the GOP has a slippery slope to climb when it comes to presidential politics because of the growing importance of Hispanic votes in America. Most Republicans are from conservative states and the GOP has taken a hardline approach to immigration. Alabama is a prime example. This hardline approach has not boded well with Hispanic voters.
In the past two presidential elections, hardline rhetoric against immigration reform decreased the Republican nominee’s share of Hispanic voters from 40 percent for George W. Bush in 2004 to 27 percent for Mitt Romney last time.
Within a few days of Romney’s 2012 defeat, GOP leaders agreed there had to be a plan to get more Hispanic voters into the fold. A few months later a Republican national committee panel issued a report concluding, “We must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform. If we do not, our party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only.”
The President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Tom Donahue, recently said, “If the Republicans don’t do something positive towards immigration reform, they shouldn’t bother to run a candidate in 2016.”
Sen John McCain (R-Arizona) and the 2008 presidential nominee was even more blunt. He said that without action, “it doesn’t matter who we nominate.”
Even with this call for alarm, the Republicans in Congress have become even more strident and vocal in their approach to immigration. Those of us from the South find it difficult to understand and see the demographic changes in the United States, which has changed our political landscape. However, it is real.
In the 2016 presidential election, the Hispanic vote will likely total 16.5 percent of the American vote. Polling consistently indicates that if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee she garners 75 percent of the Hispanic vote against any GOP candidate.
You add to the mix that you are going to have a hotly contested GOP presidential contest with probably 12 viable well-financed candidates running negative ads against each other. They will more than likely not all kiss and makeup. This makes for a difficult mountain to climb for a Republican to sit in the White House after 2016.
See you next week.
October 28, 2015
Last week, we speculated on the 2016 U.S. Senate Races. However, the most pressing political event on the radar is next year’s presidential contest. It will be an interesting and protracted campaign. In fact, it has been ongoing for well over a year.
Like our 2018 Governor’s Race, the 2016 Presidential Race will be void of an incumbent seeking reelection. Barack Obama will have served his eight-year constitutional limit. Therefore, we will have an open oval office for political hopefuls to fill.
In past years, Alabamians paid little attention to presidential politics. When we were a one party Democratic state, we were more interested in gubernatorial and sheriff contests. However, in modern times since we have become a one party Republican state we have become more engaged.Read more
October 21, 2015
There have been monumental budget battles in Washington and Montgomery this year. The big difference is that the State of Alabama has a constitutional requirement that we have a balanced budget. We cannot spend more than we can take in. Unfortunately, the United States does not have the same constitutional provision. To his credit, our Senior U.S. Senator Richard Shelby has proposed just such a measure in every session of his 29 years in the Senate.
Our national debt is the biggest problem facing our country. It weakens us in every aspect of national power, prestige, prosperity and security. Barack Obama has never really cared about this national crisis. This socialist Democratic philosophy has been the downfall of several European and third world countries, as well as early Rome.Read more
October 14, 2015
Many of you liked last week’s column detailing our Senior Senator Richard Shelby’s ascent to the U.S. Senate in 1986. Sen. Shelby has represented us in the U.S. Senate admirably for close to three decades now. He has no plans to retire any time soon. Shelby will tell you straight away that he is running for reelection to his 6th six year term in 2016. Shelby turned 80 last May but he looks 65 and is in good health. He loves being a U.S. Senator and will be easily reelected if indeed he runs again in 2016.
However, what if Shelby changed his mind and retired in 2016? The big question mark in Alabama politics is who all would run to succeed Shelby. The answer is everybody and their brother. United States Senate seats do not open up every day. Therefore everybody who is in political office plus everybody who ever won a 4H speaking contest would enter the fray.Read more
October 07, 2015
In 1986 Richard Shelby was a 50-year-old congressman from Tuscaloosa. He was elected to congress eight years earlier, after two successful four-year terms in the Alabama State Senate. However, Shelby was ready to move up again. He was planning to run for the United States Senate.
Shelby had never lost a political race. He was six for six in races to represent his beloved Tuscaloosa and the people of West Alabama. He was a conservative Democrat, who had a stellar conservative voting record. He was safe in his U.S. House seat. In fact, it appeared that the congressional seat was his for life. His decision to challenge an incumbent U.S. Senator was a gamble. Read more
September 30, 2015
The State of Alabama fiscal year begins this week and we finally have a budget for the year. Constitutionally, the only mandatory requirement that the Legislature has each year in their legislative session is to pass the budgets. The Education budget was approved during the four month Regular Session, but it was uncertain if we would have a budget for the beleaguered General Fund.
Gov. Robert Bentley called a Special Session in early summer to pass a budget. However, despite costing taxpayers around $400,000, there was still no budget. Therefore, the Governor called yet another Special Session for September. The third time was a charm. A budget was passed with only two weeks to go until the fiscal year begins this Thursday.Read more
September 23, 2015
This first year of the quadrennium has been an interesting mix of politics in the Heart of Dixie. At the heart of the news and interest has been the continuous wrangling over the General Fund budget. From the get go, Gov. Robert Bentley has taken a gung ho approach to raising taxes to bolster the beleaguered General Fund.
Beginning in January, Bentley laid down his proposals for the legislature to increase revenue to solve the problems and predicted shortfalls. He relentlessly stayed on course with his intentions. His resolve to raise new money never wavered, although his proposals changed numerous times.Read more
September 16, 2015
When Jim Bennett left the Secretary of State’s office earlier this year, he set the record for the longest serving Secretary of State in the state’s history. His 12 years in the office surpassed the legendary ladies, Agnes Baggett and Mabel Amos, who would rotate between State Treasurer and Secretary of State over the years.
Jim also served five terms in the legislature prior to being appointed Secretary of State. He was elected to two four-year terms and then appointed by different governors to serve out unexpired terms. He and Fob James are the only two people to be elected to statewide constitutional offices as both a Democrat and as a Republican.Read more
September 09, 2015
Shelby County, Alabama sits in the geographic center of the state and is the birthplace and childhood home of Gov. Robert Bentley. It is also renowned for being the fastest growing county in Alabama for the past four decades. Shelby County has become a mecca for suburbanites in the Hoover/Birmingham metropolitan area.
Shelby County has not always been a suburban enclave of Jefferson County. While Gov. Bentley was growing up, it was a rural county much like most of the counties in the state. Shelby County was part of a four county center that was known as the home of the original Republicans in the state. Read more
September 02, 2015
It is common knowledge that the Indian casinos in Alabama and throughout the country are granted federal sovereignty and are not subject to state intervention and authority. Several years ago state attorney general Luther Strange filed a hail Mary frivolous lawsuit against PCI Gaming Authority for political posturing purposes. The federal district court in Montgomery took about three weeks to rule against the state. It was ludicrous that it was filed. Federal District Judge Keith Watkins pretty much implied as much by ruling so quickly. It was a perfunctory decision that could be written by a first year law clerk in less than an hour. One of the puzzling questions is why in the world the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals has sat on their final ruling for over three years. Speculation in Montgomery is that there is an agreement between Luther Strange and former Alabama Attorney General and now 11th Circuit Jurist Bill Pryor to delay the ruling. They are close Mountain Brook buddies.
There was a very poignant and telling caricature of George Wallace during his heyday that very accurately depicts Alabama’s long standing relationship with the federal government. In the picture Wallace has his hand out receiving federal money. In the other hand he has a dagger ready to vehemently attack Washington.Read more