January 20, 2016
A good many of the news stories that were the most noteworthy events of 2015 will continue into this new year of 2016 and may repeat as the major headlines of this year.
Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard will go on trial in his home of Lee County in early spring. Hubbard, the Republican Speaker, is the architect and leader of the GOP takeover of the Alabama House. Ironically, one of the cornerstone issues heralded by Hubbard in his coup was ethics reform. Interestingly, one of the most incriminating emails revealed during discovery was one in which Hubbard essentially asked his buddy, former Gov. Bob Riley, why in the world did we pass that ethics law?
Hubbard has been indicted on 23 felony counts of ethics law violations. These ethics canons were passed and heralded by Hubbard and his leadership team in the House, which has remained loyal to Hubbard throughout the course of his trial. Hubbard was indicted in 2014. The GOP dominated House reelected him Speaker in January 2015 as the new quadrennium began. Their justification was that in America you are innocent until proven guilty.
During 2015 there were ongoing legal battles between the state prosecutors and Hubbard’s attorneys. These skirmishes filled the news periodically throughout the year. The case continuation seemed to cause some disintegration of Hubbard’s political hold on the House. In addition, the protracted budget fight that lasted most of 2015 created tension and discord.
During the last Special Session, while dealing with the General Fund Budget, some of the GOP backbenchers challenged Hubbard and some actually called for his resignation. Rep. Phil Williams of Huntsville actually launched a campaign to run against Hubbard as Speaker.
Hubbard’s trial is set to begin in late March so the Speaker will be absent from the presiding post for most of the Regular Session while attending his trial. If he is convicted on any of the 23 counts, not only will he have to vacate the Speakership but he will also be forced to leave the House entirely. Hubbard’s successor would be elected among the House of Representatives. Regardless of the outcome this story portends to be one of the leading news stories of 2016.
Speaking of the legislature, an issue that arose in 2015 and should be resolved this year has strangely gone completely under the radar screen. Alabama’s House and Senate district lines, which were drawn and adopted in 2013, are up in the air. Our current legislature was elected in 2014 under these lines. When drawing the lines, the Legislative Reapportionment Committee meticulously complied with every aspect of the existing Voting Rights Laws and judicial holdings. Minority districts were preserved and even enhanced. Under Alabama’s 2014 redistricting the state’s racial compliance, as called for under the Voting Rights Act, is one of the fairest in the nation.
It was thought by most observers that a perfunctory appeal of the lines by the Alabama Legislative Black Caucus and the Alabama Democratic Conference was nothing more than a Hail Mary. Indeed, a three judge federal panel approved the state’s plan. However, the U.S. Supreme Court heard the case on appeal and in a surprise 5-4 decision in March remanded the case back to the three judge panel to reconsider.
Justice Stephen Breyer, in writing for the majority of the Supreme Court, said the judges should look at the individual districts to determine whether they were racially gerrymandered. The Supreme Court is plowing new ground in Alabama and in other southern states by saying that black voters were “packed and stacked” in majority-minority districts stifling their power in the legislative process.
In August, the panel asked the plaintiffs to submit maps to comply with the ambiguous Supreme Court ruling. They did so in September. The three judge federal panel could rule on the maps at any time. Even though most of the changes suggested by the plaintiffs are minor and subtle and do not affect most existing lines, the federal courts could very well call for new legislative elections this year. If that happens it would be as big a story as the Hubbard trial.
See you next week.
January 13, 2016
Last week we discussed the presidential race. The GOP race for the nomination has been one of the most illuminating in history. Never before have political novices been the frontrunners. It is obvious that voters prefer an outsider with no governmental experience. Donald Trump and Ben Carson would both be considered outsiders, both lacking in political experience and skills and Trump lacking tact. No matter what they say or the amateurish blunders they make they doggedly cling to their lead in the polls.
Over the years I have been able to predict Alabama political races with some accuracy. However, national and presidential politics not so much. A prime example would be the presidential race eight years ago. In 2008, I looked at Fred Thompson and saw a presidential winner. He was tall with a deep gravelly voice. He had charisma and gravitas, not to mention a perfect resume and bio to be president. Read more
January 06, 2016
Folks, we are in the midst of a presidential race. It has been ongoing for well over a year. We will select a new president in November. Barack Obama has served his eight year limit. Thus, the parade of candidates seeking to occupy the Oval Office has been long, especially on the Republican side.
You may have noticed that in the previous paragraph I used the word select rather than elect. That would be the proper term since we do not elect our president. The Electoral College selects him or her. It does not matter if one person receives more votes than the other nationwide. The candidate who carries the proper number of states and garners the most electoral votes from those states is declared the president.Read more
December 30, 2015
As we close the final page on the 2015 book, my yearend tradition is to reminisce about the passing away of significant players on the Alabama political stage.
The first obituary is not a person but an entity. The Alabama Education Association is essentially dead as a political organization. The king is dead. When Paul Hubbert died the AEA died. It is as though it rose and fell with his life. He reigned as King of Goat Hill for over 30 years.Read more
December 23, 2015
As we look back over the past year’s political events one week stands out. During one week in the middle of 2015, three momentous events occurred. All three came down bang, bang, bang in the week leading up to the fourth of July.
First was the landmark decision by the U.S. Supreme Court, which deemed same sex marriage legal and the law of the land. Then the historic BP settlement, which granted Alabama $1.3 billion for environmental recovery and an additional $1 billion for economic losses. Finally, was Governor Bentley’s executive order removing all of the confederate flags from the Capitol.
All three decisions will have an impact on state politics. How will these three events affect Alabama politics in the next few years?Read more
December 16, 2015
This week we will conclude our analysis of the potential horses in the 2018 Alabama Gubernatorial Derby. First, let me briefly recap the horses we have already handicapped. The list includes, in descending order, Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard (18), Supreme Court Justice Jim Main (17), Sen. Greg Reed (16), Sen. Arthur Orr (15), Anniston Mayor Vaughn Stewart (14), Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox (13), Mobile Mayor Sandy Stimpson (12), Congressman Bradley Byrne (11), Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey (10), Sen. Del Marsh (9), State Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan (8), Attorney General Luther Strange (7), Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle (6), State Treasurer Young Boozer (5), and Secretary of State John Merrill (4). The final three horses will be revealed today.
Our Number 3 horse is Tim James. James could have easily won the 2010 Governor’s Race. In fact, if the primary had been two weeks earlier polling reveals he would have won. However, the last ten days leading up to the primary unveiled a volley of negative ads hurled between Tim James and Bradley Byrne, which propelled Bentley into the runoff and ultimate victory. Being within an eyelash of victory has got to stick in James’ craw. He may have the itch to run again. He is young and has some personal money to get the ball rolling again. Having run a successful get acquainted race makes him a viable candidate. That is why I have Tim James at number 3.Read more
December 09, 2015
This week we will continue our analysis of the potential horses in the 2018 Alabama Gubernatorial Derby. So far, we have counted down from 18 to 8. In descending order the list includes, Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard (18), Supreme Court Justice Jim Main (17), Sen. Greg Reed (16), Sen. Arthur Orr (15), Mayor Vaughn Stewart (14), Mayor Walt Maddox (13), Mayor Sandy Stimpson (12), Congressman Bradley Byrne (11), Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey (10), Sen. Del Marsh (9), and State Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan (8). The next four horses will be revealed today and we will conclude the series next week when we reveal the top three horses.
We begin this week with the Number 7 horse, Attorney General Luther Strange. Of the known candidates, Luther will have served eight years in a job that is the best stepping stone to governor. At 6’9” Big Luther will be the tallest horse in the race. He is a proven fundraiser with close personal ties to the Birmingham business community. However, he has had a somewhat controversial tenure. His continuation of the Bob Riley era gambling circus demagoguery is a tar baby.Read more
December 02, 2015
This week we will continue counting down and handicapping the prospective horses in the 2018 Alabama Gubernatorial Derby. We handicapped the following horses in descending order last week, Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard (18), Supreme Court Justice Jim Main (17), Sen. Greg Reed (16), Sen. Arthur Orr (15) and Mayor Vaughn Stewart (14).
This week we begin with horse Number 13, a spot which is held by a mayor of a major city. Interestingly, four of the eighteen horses in the 2018 Alabama Derby are mayors.
The Number 13 horse, Mayor Walt Maddox, is the young popular Mayor of Tuscaloosa. The Druid City has become the political hot bed and launching pad for statewide office. It is home to Sen. Richard Shelby and Gov. Robert Bentley. Some believe that Maddox wants to follow Bentley as governor.Read more
November 25, 2015
Last week I gave you an alphabetical list of the 18 potential horses in the 2018 Alabama Gubernatorial Derby. We will begin this week handicapping them in descending order.
The Number 18 horse is current Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard. We will know whether the beleaguered Speaker of the House will remain in the derby by next March. He is on trial in Lee County. A grand jury indicted him over a year ago on 23 felony counts of ethics law violations. If he is convicted on any of the 23 charges, he becomes a felon and will not only be removed from my 2018 Alabama Derby, he will be removed from the House of Representatives and as Speaker of the House.Read more
November 18, 2015
We Alabamians love the governor’s race. When talk turns to politics in our beloved state, it usually leads to the governor’s race. It does not matter if the governor’s race is four years away, political gossip starts early as to who will run for governor. As each new race approaches it is talked about more than ever around the coffee clubs from Sand Mountain to the Wiregrass and from the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast. It is comparable to college football being the king of all sports in Alabama.
The last governor’s race lacked some of the drama since a popular incumbent, Dr. Robert Bentley, was running for reelection. You couple that with the fact that popular Republican incumbents were running for second terms in the Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner, Lt. Governor and Treasurer races. This made for a dull year in 2014.Read more