December 30, 2015
As we close the final page on the 2015 book, my yearend tradition is to reminisce about the passing away of significant players on the Alabama political stage.
The first obituary is not a person but an entity. The Alabama Education Association is essentially dead as a political organization. The king is dead. When Paul Hubbert died the AEA died. It is as though it rose and fell with his life. He reigned as King of Goat Hill for over 30 years.Read more
December 23, 2015
As we look back over the past year’s political events one week stands out. During one week in the middle of 2015, three momentous events occurred. All three came down bang, bang, bang in the week leading up to the fourth of July.
First was the landmark decision by the U.S. Supreme Court, which deemed same sex marriage legal and the law of the land. Then the historic BP settlement, which granted Alabama $1.3 billion for environmental recovery and an additional $1 billion for economic losses. Finally, was Governor Bentley’s executive order removing all of the confederate flags from the Capitol.
All three decisions will have an impact on state politics. How will these three events affect Alabama politics in the next few years?Read more
December 16, 2015
This week we will conclude our analysis of the potential horses in the 2018 Alabama Gubernatorial Derby. First, let me briefly recap the horses we have already handicapped. The list includes, in descending order, Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard (18), Supreme Court Justice Jim Main (17), Sen. Greg Reed (16), Sen. Arthur Orr (15), Anniston Mayor Vaughn Stewart (14), Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox (13), Mobile Mayor Sandy Stimpson (12), Congressman Bradley Byrne (11), Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey (10), Sen. Del Marsh (9), State Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan (8), Attorney General Luther Strange (7), Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle (6), State Treasurer Young Boozer (5), and Secretary of State John Merrill (4). The final three horses will be revealed today.
Our Number 3 horse is Tim James. James could have easily won the 2010 Governor’s Race. In fact, if the primary had been two weeks earlier polling reveals he would have won. However, the last ten days leading up to the primary unveiled a volley of negative ads hurled between Tim James and Bradley Byrne, which propelled Bentley into the runoff and ultimate victory. Being within an eyelash of victory has got to stick in James’ craw. He may have the itch to run again. He is young and has some personal money to get the ball rolling again. Having run a successful get acquainted race makes him a viable candidate. That is why I have Tim James at number 3.Read more
December 09, 2015
This week we will continue our analysis of the potential horses in the 2018 Alabama Gubernatorial Derby. So far, we have counted down from 18 to 8. In descending order the list includes, Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard (18), Supreme Court Justice Jim Main (17), Sen. Greg Reed (16), Sen. Arthur Orr (15), Mayor Vaughn Stewart (14), Mayor Walt Maddox (13), Mayor Sandy Stimpson (12), Congressman Bradley Byrne (11), Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey (10), Sen. Del Marsh (9), and State Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan (8). The next four horses will be revealed today and we will conclude the series next week when we reveal the top three horses.
We begin this week with the Number 7 horse, Attorney General Luther Strange. Of the known candidates, Luther will have served eight years in a job that is the best stepping stone to governor. At 6’9” Big Luther will be the tallest horse in the race. He is a proven fundraiser with close personal ties to the Birmingham business community. However, he has had a somewhat controversial tenure. His continuation of the Bob Riley era gambling circus demagoguery is a tar baby.Read more
December 02, 2015
This week we will continue counting down and handicapping the prospective horses in the 2018 Alabama Gubernatorial Derby. We handicapped the following horses in descending order last week, Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard (18), Supreme Court Justice Jim Main (17), Sen. Greg Reed (16), Sen. Arthur Orr (15) and Mayor Vaughn Stewart (14).
This week we begin with horse Number 13, a spot which is held by a mayor of a major city. Interestingly, four of the eighteen horses in the 2018 Alabama Derby are mayors.
The Number 13 horse, Mayor Walt Maddox, is the young popular Mayor of Tuscaloosa. The Druid City has become the political hot bed and launching pad for statewide office. It is home to Sen. Richard Shelby and Gov. Robert Bentley. Some believe that Maddox wants to follow Bentley as governor.Read more
November 25, 2015
Last week I gave you an alphabetical list of the 18 potential horses in the 2018 Alabama Gubernatorial Derby. We will begin this week handicapping them in descending order.
The Number 18 horse is current Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard. We will know whether the beleaguered Speaker of the House will remain in the derby by next March. He is on trial in Lee County. A grand jury indicted him over a year ago on 23 felony counts of ethics law violations. If he is convicted on any of the 23 charges, he becomes a felon and will not only be removed from my 2018 Alabama Derby, he will be removed from the House of Representatives and as Speaker of the House.Read more
November 18, 2015
We Alabamians love the governor’s race. When talk turns to politics in our beloved state, it usually leads to the governor’s race. It does not matter if the governor’s race is four years away, political gossip starts early as to who will run for governor. As each new race approaches it is talked about more than ever around the coffee clubs from Sand Mountain to the Wiregrass and from the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast. It is comparable to college football being the king of all sports in Alabama.
The last governor’s race lacked some of the drama since a popular incumbent, Dr. Robert Bentley, was running for reelection. You couple that with the fact that popular Republican incumbents were running for second terms in the Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner, Lt. Governor and Treasurer races. This made for a dull year in 2014.Read more
November 11, 2015
As a young boy I would sit for hours contemplating and analyzing the next governor’s race. At that time the governor could not succeed himself. He was limited to one four-year term. Therefore, we had developed a tradition whereby the man who had run second in the last governor’s race would automatically be considered the frontrunner for the next election. He had run what was called his “get acquainted race.” So I always began my conjecture assuming that the second place finisher was the man to beat. History revealed that was usually an accurate assessment.
When I was a boy there was no such thing as a computer. Therefore, I would get my trusty encyclopedia out and turn to Alabama where I could find a list of counties, their population, and a nice map of the state. I would put the projected candidates in a column, then list all the counties and go county by county to calculate my projections on how well each candidate would do in each county. I would wait until the end to tally them, so as not to prejudice myself.Read more
November 04, 2015
The 2016 Presidential election has not only begun, it is well under way. It is now a lengthy process that spans the entire four-year presidential term. The race essentially begins the day a president is sworn into office. Aspirants begin jockeying for the brass ring of American politics the next day and the marathon begins. It becomes exponentially more intriguing when there is no incumbent in the fray as will be the case in 2016.
We have an Electoral College system that makes for a chess game of political maneuvering to capture the White House. On one hand, this appears complicated because the winner of the popular vote in all 50 states is not necessarily the winner. However, it has become much simpler in the past few decades. As a result of our Electoral College election system, only about 12 states really matter. Therefore, the election process boils down to campaigning in only about a dozen battleground states. The remaining 38 states are irrelevant because they are so predictably inclined to vote for one party regardless of who the candidates are for the presidency.
Alabama is one of those reliably safe states. We will vote for the Republican candidate no matter who the nominees are for either party, so we will be ignored in the general election. Donald Duck could be the Republican nominee and we would vote for Donald Duck, along with about 15 other southern and western conservative states. However, do not feel bad. New York and California will be ignored too because these liberal states are going to vote for the Democratic candidate, regardless.
Prior to the GOP convention, we will see a host of Republican presidential candidates vying for the GOP nomination, but not afterwards. Therefore, like most elections, strategist will look to the numbers. It is simple arithmetic which battleground or swing state a candidate can carry and how. More specifically, the experts say it is now even simpler than that – their primary focus is how to get Hispanic voters in those pivotal swing states to vote for their candidate?
Most pundits and prognosticators are saying that the GOP has a slippery slope to climb when it comes to presidential politics because of the growing importance of Hispanic votes in America. Most Republicans are from conservative states and the GOP has taken a hardline approach to immigration. Alabama is a prime example. This hardline approach has not boded well with Hispanic voters.
In the past two presidential elections, hardline rhetoric against immigration reform decreased the Republican nominee’s share of Hispanic voters from 40 percent for George W. Bush in 2004 to 27 percent for Mitt Romney last time.
Within a few days of Romney’s 2012 defeat, GOP leaders agreed there had to be a plan to get more Hispanic voters into the fold. A few months later a Republican national committee panel issued a report concluding, “We must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform. If we do not, our party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only.”
The President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Tom Donahue, recently said, “If the Republicans don’t do something positive towards immigration reform, they shouldn’t bother to run a candidate in 2016.”
Sen John McCain (R-Arizona) and the 2008 presidential nominee was even more blunt. He said that without action, “it doesn’t matter who we nominate.”
Even with this call for alarm, the Republicans in Congress have become even more strident and vocal in their approach to immigration. Those of us from the South find it difficult to understand and see the demographic changes in the United States, which has changed our political landscape. However, it is real.
In the 2016 presidential election, the Hispanic vote will likely total 16.5 percent of the American vote. Polling consistently indicates that if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee she garners 75 percent of the Hispanic vote against any GOP candidate.
You add to the mix that you are going to have a hotly contested GOP presidential contest with probably 12 viable well-financed candidates running negative ads against each other. They will more than likely not all kiss and makeup. This makes for a difficult mountain to climb for a Republican to sit in the White House after 2016.
See you next week.
October 28, 2015
Last week, we speculated on the 2016 U.S. Senate Races. However, the most pressing political event on the radar is next year’s presidential contest. It will be an interesting and protracted campaign. In fact, it has been ongoing for well over a year.
Like our 2018 Governor’s Race, the 2016 Presidential Race will be void of an incumbent seeking reelection. Barack Obama will have served his eight-year constitutional limit. Therefore, we will have an open oval office for political hopefuls to fill.
In past years, Alabamians paid little attention to presidential politics. When we were a one party Democratic state, we were more interested in gubernatorial and sheriff contests. However, in modern times since we have become a one party Republican state we have become more engaged.Read more