August 7, 2024 - Presidential Race Between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Will Be Close and Depend on Turnout
The decision by the Joe Biden inner circle to allow the poor fellow to get out of the Presidential race was a godsend for the Democratic Party.
It gives new life to the Democrats’ chances to keep the White House. The ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris to the top of the ticket breathes new life into a dead campaign. Biden’s demise, mentally and physically, assured a Democratic presidential defeat on November 5, but also guaranteed the Democrats’ loss of the U.S. Senate, as well as their hopes to rest the majority of the House from the Republicans. The top of the ticket in a presidential year usually affects the results of down ballot congressional races.
The national electorate is divided evenly right down the middle with 45% Democratic locked in voters and a guaranteed 45% Republican voters. Therefore, the race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump is all about turnout. It’s turnout, turnout, turnout. It does not matter how popular or what landslide numbers Trump gets in Alabama or how much Kamala Harris trounces Trump in California, it is all going to boil down to which candidate’s stalwart supportersturnout to vote in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Trump and the Republicans came out of their successful GOP Convention two weeks ago with a bump and a five point lead. My guess is that when the Democrats end their convention in two weeks, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will be knotted at a dead even 45/45 in the six battleground states. The horserace numbers will remain the same for the final two months leading up to the November 5 election.
It will all depend on the enthusiasm and determination of the base of each team. Does the Trump Conservative Team vote enthusiastically as expected or does the Liberal Democratic Kamala Harris Team get its disciples to the polls? It will all boil down to turnout in six states. My guess is that it comes down to Wisconsin and Michigan.
Kamala Harris is the best candidate that the Democrats could field. She perfectly reflects the heart and soul of the Democratic Party, which are African American women. She will energize this base vote. It will be close in November.
Biden was in a diminished capacity when the Democrats ran him in 2020. They were able to hide him and not let people see him during that campaign year, and simply ran a campaign that was focused on voting against Donald Trump.
However, when he became President, he had to actually be seen and watched. It was apparent that he was not vital, cognitively. Over the past two years it has gotten progressively worse. This year, he has been on dramatic decline. In recent months, there have been some very comical scenes. It would make for a reality comedy show. You will probably see a reel in future years entitled “Old Joe runs for President.”
There are three scenes that stick out to me and would be his greatest hits. The first occurred at a D-Day event in France. You could tell that the European leaders were concerned and amused at Biden’s diminished capacity and demeanor. They were lining up to take a picture with the other European leaders when, all of a sudden, ole Joe starts wandering off toward a cliff and the Italian Prime Minister had to run grab him by the arm and bring him back.
Later that month, they took Joe to a fundraiser in Hollywoodwith Liberal Elite, left-wing movie stars. He was on stage with Barak Obama. When the program came to an end, he stood there on the stage with Obama in one of his memorable stares into space. He stood there with mouth open and that blank look in his eyes that clearly said, “Where am I? Where have they taken me?” After four full minutes of Joe frozen, staring into space, Obama took him by the arm and led him off the stage. The movie stars were probably thinking to themselves, “I came here to give money to a presidential race and instead I’m contributing to a geriatric care fund.” Indeed, Jill Biden has turned the White House into nothing more than the nation’s most expensive nursing home.
The coup de gras was the late June debate debacle. If everyone in the country did not know that Joe was out to lunch before, the 27 million people who watched that comedy show knew afterwards. His incoherent ramblings and slurred incomprehensible mumblings were bad and revealed that he probably did not know where he was. The saddest thing was that as Jill Biden helped him off the stage, she told him he did a good job.
See you next week.
July 31, 2024 - Republicans Leave Convention Exuberant, Positive and United
The Republican Convention ended on July 19, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The GOP came out of their weeklong confab exuberant, positive, and unified.
The Republicans nominated former President Donald J. Trump for the third time to lead their party into the Fall elections. Most reliable polling points to Trump being elected on November 5. However, the election is three months away and anything can happen, and very well might given the events of the year.
Trump was unanimously nominated by the GOP delegates less than 48 hours after being shot by an assassin in rural Pennsylvania at a campaign rally. There were an estimated 10,000 people at the event in this important battleground state. The assassination attempt and Trump’s resilience, and defiant and brave response, further enhanced his odds of taking back the White House.
The big question going into the convention was, who would Trump pick as his running mate. That well kept secret was answered on Monday afternoon when he announced Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his choice to be Vice President. The young freshman senator was not a surprise as he was speculated to have been on Trump’s VP short list for months. He immediately became a popular selection.
Vance seems to be somewhat of an American superstar. He turns 40 on August 2 and has had a stellar rags-to-riches, self-made Horatio Alger success story raised in poverty as a boy growing up in Ohio. After high school he became a Marine. He served in combat in the Marine Corp. He then went to college at Ohio State, on the G.I. bill. He continued to law school at Yale where he earned his J.D. degree. He began a successful venturecapital business. His next endeavor was to write a best-sellingbook – an allegorical story about his life. The book Hillbilly Elegy was made into a movie, which a lot of folks have seen. I am sure a lot more will now see and also will read the book, now that Senator Vance has been thrust onto the national scene. He and his wife, Usha, have three young children, ages 2, 4 and 7.
Vance is touted as a blue collar, Rust Belt, MAGA Republican. He will be an asset to the ticket in attracting middleclass voters in the pivotal swing midwestern states surrounding his home state of Ohio. The election will be decided in the Midwest battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Vance will also help keep his home state of Ohio in the red column.
Our own freshman Senator Katie Britt is a close conservative ally and friend of J.D. Vance. They arrived in the Senate together less than two years ago. Katie and Vance were identified early by the national press as new rising, promising freshmen Republican conservative stalwarts in a stellar freshman class elected in 2020. They have not disappointed anyone. They both are everything that they were cracked up to be for the GOP. Katie was given a primetime spot for an address to the Convention on Monday.
Another Alabama lady was featured in the spotlight at the Convention. As the Roll Call began for the Presential nomination, it was obvious that a beautiful, clear, distinct,southern accent was calling the roll. When I looked, I saw our own Vickie Drummond of Jasper was presiding. She was elegant, beautiful and exuded class. Vickie and her magnificent husband, Mike, a Jasper dentist, were Republicans before it was cool. They have toiled in the Republican Party vineyards for 60 years. They began with the Southern Goldwater Republican landslide of 1964. Vickie has become a leader in the National Republican Party. She serves as Secretary of the National GOP and is on the Executive Committee of the National Party. She and Mike are Alabama treasures.
Another Alabama treasure, iconic State Senator Jabo Waggoner of Vestavia Hills, is the longest serving legislator in Alabama history and was a delegate to the GOP Convention for the ninthstraight time going back to 1992. He also attended the 1984 Convention as a Republican candidate for Congress.
See you next week.
July 24, 2024 - Donald J. Trump Probably Will Be The 47th President of the United States
I was watching the Trump rally on television the late Saturday afternoon of July 13, and saw the horrific assassination attempt on President Donald Trump. I followed the aftermath and discussions for the next 48 hours and knew that I was watching the revelation of history. The scenes of the horrific incident will be seen for years in historic documents and films. The reaction by President Trump, rising above the Secret Service detail and heroically pumping his fist into the air shouting to the immense throng of worshippers, “Fight! Fight! Fight!” will be seen millions of times between now and November 5.
The mere fact that Trump had the strength and presence of mind to get up and react was amazing after being hit by a bullet and tackled by five Secret Service agents. He actually wanted to continue his speech to the tremendous Pennsylvania audience. He revealed a resilience that I do not believe even his most ardent followers thought he had. That picture of him with blood on his face, defiantly pumping his fist, and saying, “Fight!”, will be an indelible iconic image forever in the annals of presidential politics.
The Secret Service did a good job of getting to Trump and covering the President. However, the Secret Service and its director became villainized by the inexplicable inability to secure the rally surroundings from a person carrying a rifle onto the top of a building with a clear view less than 150 yards from where the President was delivering his address.
The most remarkable unfolding of the event was the fact that if President Trump had not turned his head to the right at that exact moment, the bullet would have hit him right in the head and killed him rather than simply grazing his ear. That was without question, divine intervention.
It was obvious when Trump appeared at the GOP Convention on Monday night, a mere 51 hours after almost being murdered, he had a quiet, calm redemptive composure. He had the same mellow demeanor as he gave his acceptance speech on Thursday night. He looks and sounds presidential. He realizes that God spared his life. A mere millimeter difference in the bullet’s trajectory, caused by the exact timing of his turning his head, saved his life. The former and probably next President had a Damascus Road experience.
The entire country, including Republicans, Independents, and even Democrats, have seen the cognitive decline of current President Joe Biden over the last three years. It has accelerated over the last three months, and it will not improve. Even the most ardent Democratic politicians and pundits have overtly acknowledged that he cannot lead the country for four more months, much less four more years.
Lights are out on the reelection of Joe Biden. His reluctance to leave the race revealed that a small insular group of close advisors, including his wife Jill, were keeping him isolated because they liked running the White House and remaining in the limelight.
There is complete discord and disarray within the Democratic Party. Democratic leaders in the Senate and House have been urging Biden’s handlers to allow him to step aside as their presidential candidate. Their fear was that Biden’s name atop the ticket would not only assure the loss of the White House but would cause the Democrats to lose the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate.
Biden’s recent departure from the race will allow the Democrats to field a potentially viable presidential candidate, probably Vice President Kamala Harris. However, regardless of whoever is selected to be the Democratic nominee, the assassination attempt on the life of President Trump and his iconic fist pump has galvanized the Republican Party base and probably made Donald J. Trump the 47th President of the United States.
See you next week.
July 17, 2024 - “Krazy Kristi” Noem
As the Republican National Convention unfolds this week, you will see all the GOP stars on stage and featured all week, especially on Fox News.
You will probably not see one of the former potential rising political show horses featured or interviewed. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem may be there but will be shunned and snubbed by the GOP faithful and media. She has been relegated to the political graveyard, now and forever. She is now a comedic laughingstock and punchline in political circles.
This time, six months ago, the spectacularly attractive South Dakotan was actually being considered to be Donald Trump’s running mate. Indeed, our Senior Senator Tommy “Coach” Tuberville, who has become one of Trump’s closest allies and confidantes, recently shared with me that while he and Trump were golfing at Mar-a-Lago earlier this year, Trump referred to Noem often and inferred that she was being considered as his running mate.
Noem was aspiring to be on the national stage. She was the keynote speaker at the Alabama GOP Winter Dinner in recent years. About a year ago, she began running ads on Fox News promoting South Dakota, which primarily featured her in jeans and a hard hat. Ostensibly, these ads were to attract business to the small, obscure, sparsely populated, western state. They were really designed to promote her as the Governor of South Dakota and to help build her name identification with an eye towards national politics.
As is the case with aspiring governors and senators, who begin being touted as potential presidential aspirants, they come out with a book. Governor Kristi Noem was relatively unknown except in small Republican circles. However, her book made her nationally and even internationally known.
For you see, this western girl told the whole world that she took her pet dog out to a gravel pit and shot it dead and left it there just because she did not like it anymore. She more than likely did not write the book, a ghost writer did. However, she had to have read the book, and approved it, and given the writer that gruesome aspect of her life. A chapter was devoted to it.
My first thought was, is this for real? Then, what kind of aspiring political person would tell the world this in not only an interview, but in her own book? Her so-called biography. What kind of stupid political adviser would allow that to go into a book? What kind of publisher would allow that passage and think that the book would be bought and make any money?
Bless her heart, Kristi Noem was set to promote the book, and the book was leaked, and the passage posted prior to her appearances. The greeting was so savage and brutal from all news sources, even Fox, that within a day of total ridicule and abject obvious hatred toward her, she and her advisers tucked their tails and hightailed it back to South Dakota. She will probably never be heard from again.
If Noem ever goes anywhere to a political or social event, the rest of her life she will be met with a laugh or sneer as a joke. She will forever be known as the woman dog killer. She will be the brunt of jokes for life. She is through, politically, and to think she did it to herself. She not only shot her dog, she also shot herself in the foot with the same bullet. In fact, she did not shoot herself in the foot, she shot herself in the head, politically. Kristi Noem committed political suicide.
I have been scratching my head for the last three months since Noem’s unbelievable revelation, trying to think of another example of overt political suicide in my lifetime. I cannot remember anything similar.
About this same time, it occurred to me that every older, white Republican I came in touch with had a dog that they loved and adored. Senator Richard Shelby has a new dog named Tallulah. Governor Kay Ivey has a beloved dog named Missy. My older brother, Scott, just lost his 13-year-old collie Jessie at about this time. He is still in mourning.
The same week as Kristi Noem’s horror story, ironically, I’m watching Fox News and Kristi’s South Dakota ad is sandwiched between an ad for the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (ASPCA) and gourmet dog food, which older Republicans are obviously buying for their dogs. They are probably not buying Kristi Noem’s book that tells of her adventures of killing her dog in a gravel pit.
In political circles, she will be forever known as “Krazy Kristi” Noem.
See you next week.
July 10, 2024 - Donald Trump Will Be Coronated by GOP at Republican Convention Next Week
The Republican National Convention begins next week in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Milwaukee was selected as the home to the GOP Convention for a reason. Wisconsin is one of the sixmajor pivotal battleground states in the presidential race. The others are Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia,and possibly Pennsylvania.
In bygone years, presidential candidates campaigned in 40 or so states because 40 states were in play. Today the candidates will concentrate in these few swing states and will really focus their efforts on certain locales and precincts within these handful of states. Even the media, both right and left, discuss and reveal polling in these swing states and disregard the national horserace polling numbers because they are irrelevant.
Under our electoral college system of selecting our president where the winner of each state’s popular vote gets all of those states electoral votes, there is no reason to campaign in 40 states because those back 40 are already predisposed to vote for either the Republican or Democratic candidate. As I have often said, if Mickey Mouse were the Republican nominee he would win Alabama and Kansas. By the same token, if Donald Duck were the Democratic nominee he would carry the states of California and New York, and get all of their boatload of electoral votes. You might say that the “hay is in the barn” in Kansas and the“cannabis in the halo” in California.
Donald J. Trump will be coronated by the GOP delegates at the Milwaukee confab July 15-18. Republicans are hoping that by giving deference to Wisconsin, it will help the former Presidentcarry the state in November. Trump won the state narrowly against Hillary Clinton in 2016 and lost narrowly to Biden in 2020.
Currently, Trump and Biden are knotted at 45/45 in Wisconsinwith third party candidate Robert Kennedy getting a substantial 10%. In fact, as the convention begins, current polling has Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden in most of the battleground states, including Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, and even Michigan.
Trump is ahead and will be favored to win the General Election for three reasons. First, Joe Biden’s aged demeanor is an Achilles heel that he cannot overcome, and it will only get worse. Pivotal Independents are not comfortable that he is capable of being Commander in Chief, and young Democratic voters are not enthused to vote for someone for President of the United States that looks like their great grandfather who is running for president of his nursing home. Secondly, the candidacy of third-party candidate Robert Kennedy is siphoning off these young Democratic voters. The third and primary reason is that the Democratic plan and ploy to indict former President Trump on trumped up ridiculous court cases in primarilyDemocratic venues around the country, has incensed American Republican and Independent voters to such a degree that this mockery of the court system has made Trump a martyr.
It has definitely made the Trump Republican base mad and fired up. The Democrats overplayed their hand with this court charade. This circus abuse of the judiciary for political purposes has truly angered the Republican base. It has assured Trump the GOP nomination and it has even made the pivotal Independent voters sway towards Trump.
Alabama is a Trump state. The Alabama delegation will fervently cast 50 delegate votes for Donald J. Trump next week. Senator “Coach” Tommy Tuberville will be the one who gets to reply to the Chair of the Convention when they call the roll for the vote. Alabama will be the first to vote as they call the roll alphabetically. Senator Tuberville will rise and shout that the great state of Alabama proudly casts all of its 50 delegate votes to the next President of the United States, President Donald J. Trump.
It is appropriate that Tuberville is Chairman of the Alabama delegation. He and Trump are close. Indeed, if Trump becomes President, our Senior Senator Tuberville will be the President’s closest ally in the Senate. They talk consistently, and golf together regularly.
Our 50-member delegation is star-studded. Our Senior State Senate Legend, Senator Jabo Waggoner (R-Vestavia), will be a delegate to the National Convention for the ninth time. Jabo is 87. He will be joined by the youngest delegate ever elected, 22-year-old St. Clair native and lifelong resident of Chandler Mountain, young Logan Glass.
See you next week.
July 3, 2024 - Midyear Political Observations
Now that we are midway through the year, allow me to share some thoughts on Alabama political events. There have been some significant elections already this year in the Heart of Dixie as we await a titanic presidential election in the fall.
The race for the newly drawn second Congressional district has been the major political attraction of the year. The primaries attracted a plethora of candidates on both political spectrums. There were 11 Democrats and 8 Republicans running for their party’s nomination. Most, if not all, of the Democratic aspirants lived outside the district. Half of them represented Democratic legislative districts hundreds of miles from the new bailiwick. It was actually comical. The winner of the Democratic nominationhas spent his entire adult life in Washington. Shomari Figures at only 38, came home to Mobile with a ton of Washington liberal and crypto currency money, and trounced the field, impressively. He parlayed his Mobile roots and his parent’simmense name identification in the Port City. He also beat JoeReed’s vaunted ADC machine in Montgomery. In the first primary, he beat Reed’s man, Napoleon Bracey, 40 to 15 in Joe’s backyard.
The biggest surprise and most impressive performance was turned in by young Caroleene Dobson, who won the GOP nomination for the new district. She not only won, she trounced veteran Montgomery State Legislator Dick Brewbaker, who had led her in the first primary. She ran a brilliant campaign spearheaded by the sensational political guru, Paul Shashy, who also masterminded both Senators Tommy Tuberville’s and Katie Britt’s campaigns.
Caroleene is a 37-year-old lawyer, mother, and wife. She crisscrossed the district from one end to the other. She is very poised and exudes class and integrity. She is originally from Monroe County, which is in the center of the new district, geographically. Her family has deep roots in the cattle industry.Caroleene Dobson would make a good congresswoman.
Marshall County has become the new center of Alabama politics. It is the new Barbour County of state political lore. This economically affluent enclave in the heart of Sand Mountainboasts breathtaking scenic views and pristine lakes. It is also home to our current Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth and Attorney General Steve Marshall.
Those of us who follow Alabama politics saw two juggernaut rising stars emerging in Marshall County. Wes Kitchens and Brock Colvin came to Montgomery at extremely young ages, both under 30 from Marshall County. Both were and still are considered rising stars. When Clay Scofield, the popular State Senator and Republican Majority Leader from Marshall County,left his senate seat earlier this year to join the Business Council of Alabama it left a vacancy, which created an open senate seat special election. Guess who ran? The two new superstars Wes Kitchens and Brock Colvin collided. Kitchens bested Colvin 55 to 45. Wes Kitchens is now a 35-year-old State Senator from Marshall County.
Jeana Ross, a very well-respected educator won the Special Election for Wes Kitchens’ old House seat. She defeated five other Republicans to capture this very Republican Seat.
Speaking of women winning open Special Election seats this year, Marilyn Lands, a Democrat, won an open seat in Huntsville. This House seat is considered one of the few purple swing seats in the state. She ran a campaign espousing women’s reproductive rights. She won 62 to 38. This should send a message to the Republican Party nationwide. The reversal of Roe v. Wade has been devasting for Republicans in the last three elections.
The passage of the Working for Alabama package of bills during the regular legislative session will be a gamechanger for job creation in Alabama. The behind-the-scenes masterminds of this significant project were Alabama Power CEO Jeff Peoples and Alabama Community College Chancellor Jimmy Baker. This collaborative effort will pay dividends for decades to come in our state. Chancellor Baker has transformed our community/technical college system into the incubator and matriculation for job creation in Alabama.
Our retired, iconic, United States Senator Richard Shelby turned 90 last month. A couple of decades ago when he was in his late 60’s or early 70’s, several of us would privately ask him if he was contemplating retirement. He quickly said, “No, I will probably stay to my mid-80s, I’ve got long genes.” He was not lying. I have never seen a 90-year-old as sharp or look as good as Shelby does today. He is enjoying his retirement in his home in Tuscaloosa with his beloved wife, Dr. Annette Shelby. The have a little five-pound dog, which he has named Tallulah, probably after the famous Alabama actress Tallulah Bankhead.
See you next week.
June 26, 2024 - Partisan Political Prosecution
Our First President George Washington advised that America should not have political parties. Washington was a very wise man. His leadership solidified the beginning of the bedrock of our Democracy. He was one of, if not our greatest presidents.
If he were here today to observe the bitter, tremendous, partisan divide in our nation, he would be amazed at how salient his admonishment toward political parties was 250 years ago. The partisan division in our nation is vast, deep and entrenched. We are basically two Americas. Our states are enshrined into red Republican or blue Democratic bastions.
We are tribal in our defense and allegiance to our party. Indeed, most Americans vote a straight ticket. Sixty years ago, 40 to 45 states were in play in a presidential contest. Today, only 5 to 10 states are truly swing states, and these handfuls of states are where the presidential election is held.
We have had a history of vicious political campaigns throughout our national political archives. Andrew Jackson “Ole Hickory” was one of the toughest Generals and Presidents in the annals of American history but his political enemies penetrated his very thick skin when they attacked his wife, Rachel. The venomousarrows directed toward Rachel drove her into a deep depression and caused her death.
However, never before has a political party used the courts as a political tool. This year’s use of the Judicial System by the Democrats against Trump is plowing new ground. It makes us look like a banana republic to the world. Any third grader can see that four indictments in four totally Democratic venues is political prosecution.
The Democrats’ underhanded plan was designed to make Donald Trump the Republican nominee because they perceived he would be easy to defeat. At the time of the first frivolous indictment in New York, Trump was not going to be the GOP nominee. However, the Democratic Party anticipated that the Republican faithful would rally behind the beleaguered Trump and the antagonism towards the Democratic misuse of the judicial system would accrue to Trump’s advantage. Man, did it ever work. They have made Trump the nominee, but they have overplayed their hand. They may have elected him. They have played right into his hands. They have made the election nothing more than a Vaudeville comedy or reality television show and, folks, Trump is a reality show TV star. He knows how to play that role. They may have just put Br’er Rabbit in the Briar patch.
Partisan political persecution is very wrong. If it continues it will keep any decent person from running for political office.We have had our share of political prosecution in Alabama. Two of our most recent governors, Guy Hunt and Don Siegelman,were removed from office by gross, unjust, political prosecution.
Guy Hunt, who was our first Republican Governor since Reconstruction and a Primitive Baptist preacher, was prosecuted by an overzealous Democratic Attorney General for taking a love offering for preaching a sermon because he flew on the state jet to the church event.
The most egregious, outrageous, cruel, unfair political persecution in Alabama history was the prosecution and imprisonment of former Governor Don Siegelman. He was sent to federal prison for almost a decade of his life for attempting to pass a lottery for the citizens of Alabama.
A political campaign committee simply solicited contributions from a legitimate Political Action Committee that was raising and spending money advertising to pass a lottery that would not benefit Siegelman one dime. He would in no way receive any of the funds personally or politically. Therefore, he was in no way guilty of violating the Ethics Law or any law. He benefitted zero, yet he was convicted and condemned to federal prison.
When young people come to me and ask if they should seek political office, I use this unbelievably unjust Don Siegelman story and ask them if they want this for their life. The man spent almost a decade of his life in federal prison for trying to get Alabama a lottery similar to Georgia’s that would give free college tuition for Alabama students to go to college and community colleges in Alabama.
See you next week.
June 19, 2024 - “Working for Alabama” Legislation is Monumental
As former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Sam Rayburn once said, and I’ll paraphrase, “Any fool can kick down a barn, but it takes a good carpenter to build one.” In our political landscape today, from Washington, D.C. down, we have plenty of folks kicking down barns, but not nearly enough carpenters building them.
During the most recent legislative session, the legislature passed a package of bills called “Working for Alabama,” which is a prime example of building good, effective policy that will serve to address several real problems facing Alabama’s economy – a package that has the potential to pay out in dividends for generations to come.
Anyone who is familiar with the legislative process knows that killing a bill is easy, but passing a bill of consequence is very difficult. Of the six ambitious bills included in the Working for Alabama package, every single one was passed within 50 days of their introduction – that is a real feat.
One of the primary goals of this package was to solve Alabama’s demonstrably low labor force participation rate, which, ranking at 47 in the nation, puts us at the bottom of the list when it comes to having folks working and engaged in our economy. Any small business owner in our state is well aware of this issue, as it is one of the leading problems they face every day. We know this by the sheer number of “now hiring” signs on store fronts across our state.
Lieutenant Governor Will Ainsworth recognized this problem and worked with elected officials and leaders in the private sector to lay the groundwork to create a solution aimed at solving this problem. In 2019, Ainsworth led a new commission to identify the problems causing Alabama’s low workforce participation rate and, more importantly, to develop ways to solve it. After several years of diligent work, which included input from fellow elected officials and private sector leaders,such as Alabama Power’s President and CEO Jeff Peoples and Power South Energy’s President and CEO Gary Smith – some of our state’s top employers, Ainsworth’s commission created a report that included ambitious policy solutions aimed to tackle this problem and create economic success for our state for years to come.
Ainsworth’s commission laid the groundwork for the policy solutions that comprised the “Working for Alabama “package, and they will serve Alabama’s economy well for years and even decades to come. The solutions in this package are common sense, well thought out, and represent policies that we should all be able to get behind. This includes streamlining and making more efficient Alabama’s workforce development strategies and programs, creating accountability to make sure that what our state is doing is actually working, a concept all too often lacking in government bureaucracy, and making sure that the people who actually employ Alabamians have a seat at the table when it comes to making these key decisions. That, along with resources such as a childcare tax credit, to make the ever-more expensivechildcare services affordable for working parents – demonstrate just a few key issues included in this package.
This past legislative session was contentious in many ways, with divisive issues such as gaming causing sharp divides between the Alabama House, Senate and the Governor’s Office. However, in large part thanks to Ainsworth’s leadership, a coalition of elected leaders – both Republican and Democrat, along with our state’s business community, the legislature wasable to put those issues aside and come together to get something done for our state that will impact virtually all Alabamians.
This package gave our state’s leaders, including Governor Kay Ivey, House Speaker Nathaniel Ledbetter, Senate President Pro Tem Greg Reed, and Democrat Leaders Anthony Daniels and Bobby Singleton, an issue in which they could put their partisanship aside and work together on addressing common sense solutions to very real Alabama challenges.
The instigation of this monumental Working for Alabama program came about in large part due to the efforts of Lieutenant Governor Will Ainsworth.
See you next week.
June 12, 2024 - Although Lottery Vote Failed, 2024 Legislative Session Successful
Even though the will of most Alabama voters was thwarted by a minority of Republican Legislators disallowing their constituents the right to vote on a lottery, the Session was a success.
The legislature was thrown a myriad of major issues and they dealt with them in quick order. The paramount factor in any session is whether the two budgets are passed and passed prudently. They were and they are prudent. Ever since Republicans took the majority in the Alabama House and Senate in 2016, our state budgets have been sound, balanced, and fiscally responsible.
There is an old tried and true maxim that it is more difficult to craft a budget when there is a surplus than when there is a shortage or lack of funds. This truism has been at play for the last three years. There has been a tremendous amount of money flowing into the state coffers for budgeting. Excess COVID federal money, along with rampant inflation, have given Budget Chairmen, Senator Arthur Orr (R-Decatur), Representative Danny Garnett (R-Trussville), Senator Greg Albritton (R- Poarch Creek), and Representative Rex Reynolds (R-Huntsville), a flush hand to deal with. They have done a good job of delving out the money wisely and prudently. They have set aside monies for rainy days in the future because what goes up will come down.
The first major issue to come up was the so called, “School Choice Bill.” This is a very popular political topic among Republicans. A good many Republican states have accepted this measure, and our super majority Republican legislature did not want to be left out. The new law sailed through both chambers of the legislature swiftly and easily.
All this law does is take education dollars from public school districts and give tax breaks to well heeled parents to send their children to private schools. Privately most mainstream and majority of Republican legislators held their noses and voted for this even though they were not totally sold on it. Many told me this was a tougher vote than voting “yes” to their Constituents being allowed to vote on a lottery.
Understandably, Republican legislators who hail from excellent public schools like Vestavia, Auburn, Enterprise, all North Alabama, including Huntsville, Madison, Athens, and Decatur, are being asked to steer money away from their proud public school system to folks in Montgomery to send their children to private school.
The most significant legislative package passed was the “Working for Alabama” laws. These job-creating and futuristic economic development initiatives were all passed expeditiously. They were introduced halfway through the session, and Speaker Nathaniel Ledbetter and Senate President Pro Tem Greg Reed did a yeoman’s job of shepherding them towards passage.
These workforce bills were truly a bipartisan effort spearheaded by the Business Council of Alabama. The photos of the introductory rollout of the bills included both the Republican leadership and the Democratic leadership. In the photo were BCA Head Helena Duncan, Gov. Kay Ivey, Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth, Speaker Nathaniel Ledbetter, President Pro Tem Greg Reed, Senate Minority Leader Bobby Singleton, and House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels.
The bills included a tax credit program to help remedy a shortage of quality affordable childcare that makes it harder for single mothers to work or return to work. The bill authorizes tax credits for employers who invest in childcare centers for their employees. Another part of this initiative creates an Alabama Workforce Housing Tax Credit. These credits are intended to be incentives for developers to build housing that offer rent that would be affordable for people entering or returning to the workforce.
Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth led a commission that developed many of these ideas, and House Speaker Nathaniel Ledbetter appointed a labor shortage study group. Ainsworth’s and Ledbetter’s collaboration worked well to accomplish passage of this important legislation.
The Education Budget was the largest in state history. It provides a 2% raise for education employees across the board and makes the starting pay for teachers more than $46,000, which is the highest starting salary in the region.
The General Fund Budget is also a record high. It gives a 2% cost of living raise to all state workers. Under Alabama State Employees Association Executive Director Mac McArthur’s watch, state employees have garnered a COLA raise six out of the last seven years.
See you next week.
June 5, 2024 - Legislative Session Fails to Let Alabamians Vote on a Lottery
The regular Legislative Session ended on May 9, with final passage of both budgets, which is the only constitutionally mandated requirement of the legislature during its annual legislative session.
However, there was another constitutional question that dominated the session – the perennial issue of whether Alabamians will ever be allowed to purchase lottery tickets in Alabama and keep Alabamians money within our state. This money could help educate Alabama children, pave Alabama roads, and remedy the closing of our rural hospitals. However, these Alabama dollars currently are going to our four surrounding states of Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and Mississippi, who all allow the purchase of lottery tickets.
Alabama is now one of only four states in America that do not have a lottery. It comes as no surprise that most Alabamians – both Republicans and Democrats – find this absurd. In fact, 80% of Alabamians, when polled, say they adamantly want their legislators to vote in favor of simply giving Alabamians the right to vote on whether to keep their lottery dollars at home. This same reliable polling reveals that the Alabamians in favor of a state lottery, also attend church up to two times a week and already gamble on sporting events and drive out of state to purchase lottery tickets. This is especially true of people under 50.
Today, most Alabamians see nothing irreverent or wrong, much less sinful, about buying a lottery ticket or betting on a football game. What they do find appalling is that their children, grandchildren, nieces, and nephews, who are successful in school, could go to college tuition free if they lived next door in Georgia.
Georgia’s Hope Scholarship Program, created 25 years ago through a statewide lottery bill, provides free college education for their students. At this point, Alabamians have educated untold numbers of Georgia students. It is no coincidence the largest outlets for purchasing lottery tickets are located along Georgia’s Alabama border.
The same holds true along Florida’s Alabama border. The people in Dothan and the Wiregrass, alone, have probably paved most of the roads throughout the panhandle of Florida.
Therefore, the question remains, if 80% of Alabamians want the right to vote on a lottery and our state leaders are fully aware that unregulated and untaxed gaming already exists in our state, why did the lottery vote fail yet again during this year’s annual legislative session? Because Special Interests got involved.
Unfortunately, most of the 140 members of the legislature are being falsely accused. The vast majority voted in favor of allowing Alabamians the right to vote on whether to keep gaming/lottery dollars in Alabama. However, because the creation of a lottery requires a constitutional amendment, a three-fifths vote is needed for the measure to pass. That means 63 votes are needed in the House and 21 votes in the Senate. The bill passed the House comfortably with a 72 to 29 vote but failed in the Senate with a final vote of 20 to 15. While most Senators voted in favor of the bill, it needed one more vote to pass.
Based on these numbers, 92 of our legislators voted to let Alabamians vote. Only 44 voted to thumb their nose at their constituents. That is a tough vote to defend, and I suppose most of these legislators are being met by irate constituents. These 44 legislators will have to defend their “no” vote in less than two years. Some of these legislators are veterans, who are entrenched for reelection. However, many of the “no” votes came from newly elected first termers, who now run the risk of not being reelected over this indefensible vote.
Governor Kay Ivey could decide to give these 44 legislators a chance to redeem themselves by calling a Special Session and spotlighting the lottery/gaming vote. However, at this point, I suspect Gov. Ivey is fed up and frustrated with this issue. If that is the case, she could step aside and let the lion of the legislature, Speaker Nathaniel Ledbetter, take the bull by the horns. It is possible. Only one vote is needed in the Senate. Believe you me, there are three or four freshman, back-bench senators, who are feeling the heat at home for their “no” vote.
Gov. Ivey and Speaker Ledbetter are listening to the outcry from Alabamians. Neither are being deterred by special interests. Kay Ivey has built her legacy by being one of the most honest governors in my lifetime. She has always sided with and acted on what is in the best interests of her fellow Alabamians.
Hopefully, for Alabama’s sake, you have not heard the last of this issue.
See you next week.