March 08, 2017
The premier issue of this year’s legislative session will be whether to borrow a massive amount of money to build new prisons in the state. This initiative appears to be our lame duck Governor Robert Bentley’s primary agenda.
Last year Bentley proposed an $800 million bond issue for new prisons. He has come forward with a similar proposal this year. His plan would close all existing prisons and replace them with three new super men's prisons and one smaller women’s prison.
Folks, $800 million is a lot of money. There is no question that we have a prison problem. Alabama’s prison population is at 175% of capacity. It is among the highest in the nation. This overcrowding obviously causes violence and safety problems for our prison guards.
The federal courts are probably on the verge of dosing out some kind of remedy for our prisons. The courts took over the California prisons a couple of years ago with a lower overcrowding ratio than ours is now.
It is a tough spot for legislators. Funding prisons is not a popular reelection issue. There are several questions that would have to be answered if I were a legislator addressing this serious problem. First, if I were going to put this state in debt for that amount of money I would have to ask the imperative question, “How in the world are you going to pay for the debt?”
There needs to be absolute, concrete, valid, exact revenue sources to make the payment. It is doubtful that any banker would loan someone any money if the vague pie in the sky ambiguous reply was, “Well, the prisons will be more efficient and therefore the savings will probably be enough to pay the note.” Probably ain't going to get it is what I am afraid the banker would say to the borrower. The last time I checked there was no growth revenue in the General Fund. So hoping that there might be new revenue growth is also wishful thinking.
You simply have to put dollars and cents to exactly how much you save with these nuts and bolts and how you are going to pay the bond indebtedness. Otherwise, you are buying a pig in a poke. In addition, the crazy point is that these ultramodern new prisons still leave us with overcrowded prisons. Therefore, it does not solve the problem.
Another question that would have to be answered is why does the governor’s proposal require that the new prisons be designed and built by one company with a one-time exemption to the state bid laws. That just does not meet the smell test. That simply looks corrupt and, as they say, if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck it must be a duck.
Finally, if I were a legislator from a county or neighboring county that had a state prison located in my area, hell would freeze over before I would let the governor close it. I would rather cast a vote dissolving my county than vote to borrow $800 million in order to close down one of my area’s largest employers. Just ask the people in Elmore, Escambia, St. Clair, Limestone and Bibb what it would mean for their county economics if they closed their prisons. The prisons in Barbour and Bullock counties are the largest employers in their counties.
Filibuster would have a new meaning if one of those prisons were in my Senate district. I would tell them in a New York minute, “that dog won’t hunt.” Besides, when the legislature last built new prisons in the aforementioned locales during the last Wallace administration they bought plenty of extra land around those prisons for future expansions. Gerald Wallace made sure of that.
The good thing for you, the Alabama taxpayer, is that this bond issue probably will not pass simply because Bentley is for it. He is essentially a deterrent to anything passing in the legislature.
See you next week.
March 01, 2017
We have unbelievable natural resources in Alabama starting with the Tennessee Valley and transcending to the beautiful white sands at Gulf Shores. Many of our natural resources have been exploited over the years. The prime example would be the exploitation of our rich vaults of iron ore discovered in Jefferson County in the early 20th Century. It created the city of Birmingham, the Steel City of the south.
U.S. Steel swept in, bought the entire region, and used cheap labor in the mines and steel mills and kept poor whites and blacks in poverty wages and shantytowns. They owed their soul to the company store. Finally, they organized into labor unions. The United Steel Workers Union Local in Birmingham became the largest in the nation. Alabama also became the most unionized state in the south.
The TVA workers and Reynolds Aluminum workers in the Tennessee Valley were all unionized. The tire workers in Gadsden, Opelika, and Tuscaloosa were unionized. The federal workers around Ft. Rucker in the Wiregrass were union. The largest employer in Mobile was the docks. The dockworkers were unionized. When you combine these locales with the steelworkers in Birmingham, we were a pretty unionized state.
In the course of our recent history, we have been more prudent with our natural resources. The prime example of that would be during the late 1970s when we sold the oil rights in Mobile Bay to Exxon Mobil. We got a fair price and we put the entire corpus aside and preserved the money into a trust called the Heritage Trust Fund.
Governor Fob James deserves credit for this accomplishment. It is the crowning achievement of his two terms as governor. It is quite a legacy. Not all governors leave a legacy. Ole Fob has one. Not as much can be said for our most recent governors. Don Siegelman, Bob Riley, and Robert Bentley cannot point to any accomplishment that will distinguish their time as governor.
Jim Folsom Jr., who only served two years as governor, can lay claim to having lured and landed Mercedes, which has been the crucible that has catapulted us into the second leading automaker in the nation.
Governor Bentley was given a golden opportunity to garner a place in history with the one-time BP oil spill money. Granted, it was not as much money as the Exxon Mobil oil rights nor did we get as good a settlement as could have been garnered. We will only see $693 million of the $1 billion settlement because we bailed out and sold out to get our money upfront. Compared to Louisiana and Florida, it was not a good settlement.
Essentially this one-time windfall will be squandered. The BP money was appropriated in a special session last September. The legislature spent the entire BP oil settlement proceeds with a compromise bill that divided the money between state debt repayments, roads for Baldwin and Mobile counties and Medicaid. The allocation was $400 million for paying off state debts, $120 million for highway projects in Baldwin and Mobile counties, and a total of $120 million to Medicaid over the next two years.
There had been a contentious battle over the funds for Baldwin and Mobile going back to last year’s regular session. Lawmakers from the coastal counties fought diligently for the road money because their counties received the brunt of the 2010 oil spill.
Lawmakers from North Alabama felt that the BP settlement should compensate all Alabamians equally. Sen. Arthur Orr (R-Decatur), who chairs the Education Budget Committee in the Senate, led the fight for North Alabama and Sen. Trip Pittman (R-Baldwin), who chairs the Senate General Fund Committee, spearheaded the battle for Baldwin/Mobile.
Senators compromised the final day of the special session. The money from BP is spent. The only thing to show from it will be some highway to the beach. They ought to at least name it the BP Expressway. It would be the only legacy from the windfall.
See you next week.
February 22, 2017
As I have suggested to you, we are looking at one momentous 2018-election year, and it has begun. Get this folks; we have an open governor’s race. We have openings at Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, State Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner, three seats on the Supreme Court including the Chief Justice position, all 35 state Senate seats, all 105 House seats, one hotly contested congressional seat, as well as 67 sheriffs. Folks, that’s the most political marquee year in my long political life. If media outlets do not make money next year, they ain’t ever gonna make any money.
As though the aforementioned cavalcade was not enough of a circus, we’ve got ourselves an open U.S. Senate seat. I believe that Ringling Brothers Circus closed in deference to us in the Heart of Dixie and our road show Vaudeville act called Alabama politics.
Our good “ole” Governor Robert Bentley has been a great ringleader. He is quite a show. Poor ole Bentley has relegated himself to not only being irrelevant, but is considered a clown.
I have been around the state on a speaking/book signing tour and everywhere I go they ask about “ole” Bentley. I have to deflect the questions about his personal advisor following him to Washington or sitting in the gallery for his speech to the Legislature.
In fact, I try to put some levity to the situation by telling folks, “Well, you know my observation of Alabama politics over the past 50 years is that we really haven’t got to have a governor.”
Big Jim Folsom stayed drunk his whole second term, George Wallace was on pain pills his last term and did not know where he was, Fob James seemed disinterested and went duck hunting his second term, and they put poor ole Hunt and Siegelman in jail. At least Bentley shows up and does his duties to the best of his abilities. He just leans on one advisor, exclusively. They say she wrote his last State of the State speech. If she did, she ain’t much of a speechwriter.
Well, ole Bentley got himself a U.S. Senate seat appointment to grant. He milked it for what it was worth. He ultimately used it as a get out of jail free card. Even if his appointment of Luther Strange looks like chicanery and collusion, it was a shrewd political move by Bentley. It keeps him and his advisor out of the pokey.
The Luther Strange appointment looks brazen and audacious. The facts are clear, Strange as Attorney General of Alabama openly asked the House Judiciary Committee to cease their impeachment proceedings because he and his office were investigating the Governor and his advisor. Then all of a sudden, the Governor appoints him to a coveted senate seat. If that does not look like collusion, I do not know what does.
If given those facts the average fisherman in Mobile Bay would say that it looks fishy. A baker in Birmingham would conclude that it does not pass the smell test. As a political historian, I will have to record these very facts for posterity. Folks can draw their own conclusion.
Luther Strange will probably go on to be a good U.S. Senator. He is imminently qualified for the role, and has planned meticulously for this seat for the last 20 years. However, the taint of Bentley will follow him to Washington and could come back to bite him in the June 2018 GOP primary, which is tantamount to election.
Big Luther is betting that as the incumbent senator for the next 15 months, he will be able to raise so much Washington campaign cash that he will be unbeatable. That is probably a good bet. However, Alabamians may have a longer memory than he thinks. Just ask Bill Baxley how getting the governor’s nomination from the Democratic hierarchy when Charlie Graddick got the most votes in 1986 turned out. Folks in Alabama do not like appointments, especially one that comes with a cloud that appears to be collusion.
We have a great 15 months of Alabama politics ahead of us, folks.
See you next week.
February 15, 2017
This third year of the quadrennium Regular Session of the legislature has recently gotten a lot more complex. These next four months will be trying times for the Alabama legislature. They will not only have to deal with a beleaguered General Fund Budget that has to feed a money-eating monster named Medicaid, they have an overcrowding problem in the state prisons to deal with as well as major public school systems being taken over by the state because of mismanagement and underfunding.
They now have been dealt a body blow that affects their own backyards. They will have to draw new legislative lines that will need to be in effect by June because legislative elections essentially begin this June. The primaries for 2018 political offices will be held in early June next year. All 105 House seats and all 35 Senate seats are up for election.
The bell rings this June 6 for all state races to begin raising money. Folks, money is the mother’s milk of politics. It usually determines who wins a race. Campaign money equates into name identification and in most legislative races it really boils down to name identification. Therefore, they will covertly make dealing with this reapportionment wrench a paramount priority.
Almost five years ago a lawsuit, which appeared at the time to be a perfunctory Hail Mary, was brought by the Alabama Legislative Black Caucus and the Alabama Democratic Conference. At the time it seemed like a vague and nebulous concept of a case. The Legislative Black Caucus and ADC argued that the Republican controlled legislature drew lines that moved black voters who vote Democratic into overwhelmingly populated black districts that prohibited them from forming alliances with like-minded white voters. The crux of the case, is that it diluted their influence in the legislature.
The case surprisingly meandered through the courts all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court. The Supreme Court broke new ground when it even heard the case and set new precedent with its ruling. Prior to this, the Supreme Court had held a state legislature could draw lines along political paths as long as it did not discriminate against black voters.
The case was remanded back to the 11th Circuit to seek a remedy. The Supreme Court sets the law. The federal judges in Alabama had to decide how to implement the ruling. When you look at the districts there is no question that the lines were drawn politically to put all black voters into almost all black districts to be represented by black Senators or black Representatives. This stacking also placed most whites in almost all white districts represented by white Senators and white Representatives.
The federal judges ruled on January 20, Inauguration Day, that 12 districts in Alabama must be redrawn in order to comply with the U.S. Supreme Court decision. The 2 to 1 majority of U.S. Federal Judges Keith Watkins and Bill Pryor ruled that only 12 districts were stacked. U.S. District Judge Myron Thompson wrote that he would have found 12 more districts unconstitutional. Regardless of whether 12 or 24 of the districts are out of sync, the legislative districts will have to be redrawn. When you tinker with even one district it affects the whole map. There is a ripple effect which will require redrawing most if not all of the districts in both the Senate and the House.
However, the bottom line is that most of the districts in the state will change very little and more importantly it will not change the party make-up of the legislature. You will probably have the same overwhelming Republican super majority in both chambers of the state legislature.
In Alabama politics essentially whites are Republicans and blacks are Democrats. There is very little deviation. Therefore, the redistricting will have minimal or no partisan effect. However, long-term it lays the foundation for a possible future coalition between black Democrats and moderate Republicans to bridge a bipartisan coalition leadership.
See you next week.
February 08, 2017
As the third regular session of this quadrennium begins, the paramount focus once again will be on the budgets. Even more specifically, it will be about the General Fund Budget.
Alabama is one of five states that has two budgets. Our Education Budget now receives over two thirds of our tax revenue due to the fact that our growth taxes, income and sales, are earmarked for Education’s coffers, whereas our General Fund gets the remaining one third of revenue and that will continue to shrink because it has no growth taxes.
The General Fund also has to feed the most expensive expenditure of state government – Medicaid. This Great Society program created by Lyndon Johnson in the 1960’s is a money eating monster that grows exponentially and now eats up over half of the General Fund Budget. This problem is not unique to Alabama. Every state would name Medicaid funding as its most significant financial nightmare.
We are affected more adversely than most states because we have a much higher indigent population. It is this long-term problem that eventually will have to be addressed.
Those who are closest to the problem are aware that it is an elephant in the room that will not go away. Rep. Steve Clouse (R-Ozark), who chairs the House Ways and Means General Fund Committee, sees it, as does Gov. Robert Bentley.
Governor Bentley, being a former physician, is sympathetic to the needs of the less fortunate. He treated all patients during his 35 years of practicing medicine. He also wants to see his compatriot pediatricians paid to take care of poor sick children.
Initially many of the Republican House and Senate members were saying enough is enough. We cannot continue to absorb 10% annual increases in this social program, even if the federal government matches Alabama’s contribution about three to one. However, once a crisis seemed imminent, they realized that it not only affected the poor but also the middle class Alabamians they represent.
In medium sized towns and cities throughout the state it is imperative that Medicaid be funded in order for their hospitals to exist. In Birmingham, it would cripple our crown jewel, Children’s Hospital. It would also be devastating for Alabama and Birmingham’s largest employer, UAB. Most respected economists say that Alabama should have taken the Expanded Medicaid Program offered by the Federal Government. It would have been a financial boon for that state if for nothing else than the windfall to UAB.
A good many of the Republican legislators’ constituents rely on Medicaid to care for their parents and family members and probably a good many of their parents reside in nursing homes. Approximately 70% of nursing home residents in the state depend on Medicaid to pay their nursing home expenses, which by the way is very expensive.
In short, Medicaid is here to stay. It is not going away. Legislators cannot bury their head in the sand like an ostrich and hope the problem disappears.
The legislature and governor have come up with a short-term fix to our Medicaid problem. They appropriated $120 million of the one-time BP oil spill settlement funds and gave it to Medicaid. This was about 20% of the one-time BP windfall.
Ironically, it will be disbursed over the next two years, 2017-2018. Guess what folks – that is when the quadrennium ends. Therefore, the proverbial can has been kicked down the road. The next governor and legislature will inherit this baby to take care of the following four years.
Legislators may be faced with yet another issue in this over laden regular session. It may be imminent to raise the gasoline tax in the state, which has not been increased in fifteen years. The reason being is that the Trump administration will probably come with a massive federal infrastructure plan to rebuild the nation’s highways and bridges. More than likely states will have to come up with some matching dollars.
It will be imperative that we take advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity. The last major federal highway initiative was the Eisenhower Federal Interstate Program.
We are behind the eight ball when it comes to political capital and attaining federal dollars. Governor Bentley is blackballed and laughed at by the Trump administration, as are our Congresswomen Martha Roby and Terri Sewell. We also have a freshman Senator who will be ranked 100th in seniority. However, we have quite an ace in the hole. We have Richard Shelby to protect us. When Shelby speaks, folks in Washington listen and that includes Trump. Richard Shelby is unquestionably one of the five most powerful members of the U.S. Senate.
See you next week.
February 01, 2017
During the past couple of months everywhere I go people continually ask me why in the world the legislature could not simply put the issue of whether they could vote for or against a lottery on the November ballot.
The fact that this inquiry has lingered for this long tells me that folks are upset about this travesty. They are mad at the legislature. However, the blame lies with the governor.
Indeed, the legislature met in a special session to address this issue of whether or not to put the lottery proposal on the ballot and let you vote on this lingering issue. Most polls indicate that the good people of Alabama would vote in favor of it, provided that there are no sweetheart deals, hidden chicanery or favoritism in the proposal.
Most Republicans would vote in favor of it because they are tired of their money being sent to Georgia, Florida and Tennessee to help their schools, roads and indigents rather than keep their money at home helping Alabamians.
Folks in the Heart of Dixie are going to buy lottery tickets. They are just going to buy them in our surrounding states. It was noticeable that a good many of the legislators, who represent border counties, voted against the referendum. This is similar to bygone days when most of the dry counties in the state continued to vote dry due to an ironic coalition between the bootleggers and preachers.
I seriously think that some of these border counties are reaping a bonanza in gas tax revenue from the throng of cars headed to Border States to buy lottery tickets. They say that cars are backed up for miles around every state border when these super Powerball extravaganzas occur.
Well, to answer your questions, it is difficult to pass anything in a congress or legislature. That is why they have the old adage, “It takes an act of Congress to get something accomplished.”
In Alabama, extraordinary special sessions of the legislature are the way to go to get something accomplished if you are the governor. The legislature has to address what the governor calls the legislature into session for, it is called “the call.”
George Wallace was a master of using special sessions to get what he wanted done. He would call them repeatedly. However, before he called them, he would have his ducks in a row. He would have called you on the phone, had you visit with him one on one in his office at the capitol or at the governor’s mansion. He would know what the vote count was on his issue before he called a special session. He would not waste taxpayer money on a session without any accomplishment.
Well folks, our good ole doctor Governor Bentley ain’t George Wallace. Ole Bentley did waste money that the state General Fund does not have to squander. That is why the special session was called. It was designed to help bolster the beleaguered General Fund. Bentley failed because he did just the opposite of Wallace. He did not call any legislators. They heard about the session on the news.
Even though Gov. Bentley shoulders the blame for failure to at least put the lottery issue on the ballot, he has shown profound leadership with his creation of an advisory council on gambling. This is a prudent, rational, and unbiased approach to the entire gambling issue. Bentley is right when he says the issue of gambling in the state is something that will never end unless we come together and figure out a way for the people of this state to have a say in its resolution.
This advisory panel has done a thorough job of studying this issue. Jim Byard and Clinton Carter, two bright stars in Bentley’s cabinet, have led the comprehensive study of gaming. The commission looked at what other states are doing to reap revenue from gambling that already exists to get a clearer picture of what a lottery would generate for state coffers. They have looked at all gambits of gambling in the state, not just the lottery. They are designing a long-term approach to present to the legislature. The administration has extended the panel’s deadline to report to the legislature from January 31st to June, probably because they do not want to deal with gambling during this legislative session. The final solution must allow Alabamians to vote on this issue.
See you next week.
January 25, 2017
Hillary Clinton’s failure to break the proverbial glass ceiling in American politics came up a little short. More than 100 men have been nominated for president by the nation’s political parties over the past 220 years. She was the first female to be the nominee of one of the two major parties.
After Hillary became the Democratic nominee last year, former Colorado Congresswoman Patricia Schroeder, who ran for president in 1988, said it best, “It’s been the ultimate tree house with a no girls allowed sign posted on it.”
Nevertheless, national studies have indicated that women still face a double standard when it comes to political campaigns. These surveys reveal that voters will support a male candidate they do not like if they believe he is qualified. However, they are less likely to support a female candidate they think is qualified unless they also like her. Therefore, it appears that for women candidates likeability is intrinsically linked to electability.
However, when it comes to honesty and trustworthiness women have an enormous advantage. Voters simply trust women more than men. A study done by the respected Pew Research Center Poll revealed that 31 percent said women were more honest and ethical than men. Amazingly only three percent said men were more honest and ethical.
I have observed and stated that same opinion for years. My observation when I was in the Legislature was that women legislators were more honest, forthright and more diligent in their duties. Other political experts have espoused this same belief, especially, when it comes to Alabama’s politics.
In the 1990’s the nation’s business community brought the political guru, Karl Rove, to Alabama to help elect a pro-business state supreme court. He was successful in his endeavor. As he departed the state he left an emphatic statement, “If you want to hold the court in Republican pro-business hands, the best candidate is a conservative female Republican, preferably one who has experience as a Circuit Judge.” Voters simply trust women more and especially for judgeships. We now have a record number of women on our State Supreme Court and Courts of Appeals.
There is no question that women in Alabama have an inherent advantage on the ballot in state judicial and secondary statewide races. If you put the name John Doe on a ballot against Jane Doe in Alabama and neither does any advertising and voters simply show up and vote in a secondary statewide race, Jane Doe will win every time.
However, a survey conducted by the Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University ranks Alabama 46th in the nation for women serving in the legislature. We are indeed inexplicably underrepresented by women in the State House and Senate. Although today we have numerous ladies in statewide office. Kelli Wise and Lyn Stuart are premier justices on the State Supreme Court. Judges Beth Kellum and Mary Windom serve with distinction on the State Court of Criminal Appeals. Judge Terri Thomas of Cullman is outstanding on the State Court of Civil Appeals. Kay Ivey is our Lieutenant Governor and Twinkle Cavanaugh serves as President of the Public Service Commission.
In the course of history, it has not been that long that women were given the right to vote. The 19th Amendment to the Constitution gave women suffrage. Alabama’s legislature voted to ratify the 19th Amendment in 1953. However, Women began to be elected statewide in Alabama long before other so called progressive states. Beginning in the 1950’s women dominated the offices of Secretary of State, State Auditor, and State Treasurer to such an extent that they became known as “the ladies offices.”
The first woman elected to a statewide office was Sybil Poole who won the Secretary of State office in 1946. She was soon followed by the legendary Agnes Baggett and then Mary Texas Hurt Garner and Melba Till Allen. These women would simply swap the posts of Secretary of State and State Treasurer after their term limits.
By the time Lurleen Wallace became the first female governor in 1967, women held almost half of Alabama’s constitutional offices. It may be time for another female governor. Twinkle Cavanaugh or Kay Ivey or someone else may make the leap. We will see.
See you next week.
January 18, 2017
The passing of Governor Albert Brewer on January 2nd at 88 years old marks the passing of an era in Alabama politics.
Albert P. Brewer was a good man and a true public servant. Brewer was born in Tennessee, but his folks moved to Decatur when he was very young after his father accepted a job with the Tennessee Valley Authority.
He graduated from Decatur High School with honors, then matriculated to the University of Alabama where he earned his undergraduate and law degrees. Brewer returned to Decatur to begin his law practice. Soon thereafter he was elected to the Alabama Legislature at the ripe old age of 25. He was elected without opposition three times and during his third term he became Speaker of the House. Brewer was the youngest Speaker in state history. In 1966, he beat two prominent state senators without a runoff to win the lieutenant governor’s job, which was much more powerful than it is today.
During his tenure as Speaker and Lt. Governor, either George or Lurleen Wallace was Governor. Brewer was a Wallace ally. When Gov. Lurleen Wallace died of cancer after only 16 months in office, Brewer ascended to the Governor’s office. He quickly and decisively took the reins of state government and became immediately effective. His years in the legislature gave him a keen insight into the machinations of state government. He was very well liked among the legislators and senators he had worked with over the past 15 years and therefore was extremely successful with his legislative agenda. He became a working governor.
Although Brewer was governor for only 33 months, he accomplished more as governor than most of his successors over the past 30 years combined. Brewer brought a low key businesslike style to the governor’s office, which was strikingly different than George Wallace’s racist flamboyant rhetoric and cronyism.
In 1970, Brewer and George Wallace squared off in what is the most memorable classic and pivotal governor’s race in Alabama political history. Brewer led Wallace by a slim margin in the first primary. However, Wallace, with his political life on the line, played the race card overtly in the runoff and defeated Brewer by a narrow margin.
Most political observers believe that had Brewer won, Alabama would have joined other southern states like North Carolina and Florida who had elected progressive pro-business governors. Brewer is often referred to as Alabama’s “New South” Governor.
He was a prince of a fellow and a good friend for over 50 years. I first met Governor Brewer when I was a young 13-year-old page in the State Legislature and he was Speaker of the House. My mentor was the State Representative from my home in Pike County. Mr. Gardner Bassett had been in the House for 24 years and was in his 70’s. He was training me to take his House seat once I was old enough. Mr. Gardner adored and admired the young Speaker Albert Brewer. He got Brewer and I acquainted and we became friends. Brewer would let me sit next to him in the Speaker’s box as he explained how he assigned bills to their proper committee. When Brewer became Lt. Governor in 1967, I was 15 and he made me head of the pages in the Senate. His daughters Becky and Allison served with me as Pages.
Gov. Brewer spent the last 30 years of his life teaching and mentoring law students at Samford University’s Cumberland School of Law. He was a mentor to my daughter, Ginny, while she was in law school at Cumberland, and followed her legal career as if she was his own daughter. Last January, Ginny and I ran into Gov. Brewer at a Birmingham restaurant. He was aging but still had that keen smile and twinkle in his eye.
Gov. Brewer and I had remained good friends over the years and he is featured prominently in my book, Of Goats and Governors: Six Decades of Colorful Political Stories. Thus, it is appropriate that the last time I visited with him was at a book signing in Bessemer. We later had lunch together at the Bright Star. As I close this column I am looking at a photo of Gov. Brewer and me from that day that adorns the wall of my office, with his ever present smile.
Albert Brewer has a special place in Alabama political history and in the hearts of many.
See you next week.
January 11, 2017
Alabama is going to fare wall under President Trump. There is an old adage that says, “Those that bake the pie get to eat it.” We truly baked the pie for Trump. We overwhelmingly supported him in the GOP primary and helped him secure the nomination. We then gave him one of the largest mandates in the nation in the November General Election.
Trump is indeed returning the favor. He has named our own Jeff Sessions Attorney General. His confirmation hearings begin this week. In addition, speculation is that Alabama’s Bill Pryor is on a very short list to be named to the U.S. Supreme Court by Trump to fill the vacancy on the Court of the late Antonin Scalia.
Pryor is a former Alabama Attorney General, who currently sits on the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta. Pryor is only 54. He served as Alabama Attorney General from 1997-2004. He was the youngest state attorney general in the country at that time. He was appointed to the federal bench in 2005 by President George W. Bush. During his 11 years on the federal bench he has rendered a sterling conservative record.
Pryor and Sessions have amazingly similar backgrounds. Both call Mobile their native home. Both were Attorney General of Alabama. Both have impeccable arch conservative philosophies and pedigrees. They are kindred spirits and good friends. That is probably why Pryor is on Trump’s short list for the High Court.
Most of the frontrunners to win the open Sessions Senate seat have avoided Bentley’s appointment. So how is the race shaking out to fill the Sessions’ seat? The frontrunner out of the gate is Attorney General Luther Strange. Big Luther has run three successful statewide races and is sitting on over 50% statewide name recognition. Furthermore, he is dedicated to running and has been for 20 years. He spent the first 20 years of his professional career lobbying in Washington for Sonat. He came home 20 years ago to run for a secondary statewide office and lay the groundwork to get back to Washington as a U.S. Senator. He has been biding his time for his buddies Sessions and Shelby to retire or move on. When Sessions’ appointment became imminent, Big Luther hit the ground running and has been raising money for 2018 for two months.
The other statewide elected officials will probably not join the 2018 Senate fray. Secretary of State John Merrill has a good future. He is 53 and will probably run for reelection or maybe Lieutenant Governor.
PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh will probably run for Lieutenant Governor or maybe Governor. It is uncertain what State Treasurer Young Boozer will do. However, his tentativeness has probably left him out of the Senate race.
Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan is running for Governor. State Auditor Jim Ziegler will run for Governor, Attorney General or reelection. Roy Moore is the favorite to win the 2018 Governor’s Race.
Congressman Robert Aderholt would be the best qualified to run and succeed Sessions. He and Sessions went to Washington together 20 years ago. However, his 20 years of seniority in the House has placed him in a powerful congressional leadership position. He is poised to be Chairman of the U.S. House Appropriations Committee. His move to being a freshman Senator would be a lateral move. Alabama and his district would be best served by his staying in the House.
Mobile and Baldwin County folks believe that they deserve the Senate seat since Sessions is a Mobilian. There are three potential candidates from the Port City/Gulf Coast Region. Former Congressman Jo Bonner is not going to run. Current Congressman Bradley Byrne would have the best chance to win among all the potential Mobile candidates. He was almost elected Governor. However, Byrne is probably not going to leave his safe congressional seat. He likes it and is good at it. State Senator Trip Pittman from Baldwin County is in the race and is running hard. If he continues to be the only major horse from that area in the race and it becomes a crowded field he may be in a runoff.
Speaking of regionalism, look at a horse from Huntsville to enter the race. If there is one primary candidate from the Tennessee Valley they will be a player. Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle may pivot and move from the Governor’s race to the Senate. Folks in that area have always been more interested in national politics than state politics because of the Redstone Arsenal.
State Senate President Pro Tem Del Marsh of Anniston seems very interested in this open U.S. Senate seat. He has sought the Bentley appointment. However, being a powerful State Senator does not translate into statewide name identification.
See you next week.
January 04, 2017
This past year in Alabama politics was surprisingly more interesting than was expected. The judicial inquiry commission removed Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore from the bench for telling the probate judges in the state to not perform marriage ceremonies for gay people. He said marriage should be between a man and a woman, as do most people in Alabama. This removal by this vague panel of former lawyers and judges has caused legislators to call for an investigation of who this panel is and how they have this much power.
More importantly, Judge Moore’s views and martyrdom has catapulted him into an early frontrunner position for the governorship of Alabama in next year’s upcoming election. He is prohibited from running for the Court again because he is 72 and Alabama law does not allow someone to run for judgeships after age 70. Therefore, it was expected that he was going to run for governor. However, his expulsion has propelled his polling numbers to strategic levels.
Our good ole Dr. Gov. Robert Bentley’s saga played out over the year. It is titillating and fun to follow. However, it has pretty much rendered him somewhat irrelevant as governor.
Donald J. Trump’s victory for the presidency is of course the biggest political story of 2016. It overshadows our shenanigans in Alabama. Trump is very popular in Alabama. His victories in our GOP primary and in the November General Election were record setting vote tallies for the Heart of Dixie.
As we enter 2017, the beginning of the Trump presidency will be the news. His administration will and has already affected Alabama politics significantly. His Attorney General will be our own Senator Jeff Sessions.
Our Senior Senator Richard Shelby has had one seat for 30 years and Sessions has been in the other seat for 20 years. Therefore, this open seat is a rarity and will be coveted. By law, the Governor appoints the holder of the vacant seat, which will be for an interim time. The election for the seat will probably occur at the same time as the governor’s race, which will be 17 months from now in the GOP primary in June of 2018.
The most qualified person to take the seat would be someone from our state congressional delegation, especially someone who has served in Congress from Alabama for a decade or more. The two who fit that bill and who are the most imminently qualified are Congressman Robert Aderholt and former Congressman Jo Bonner.
Aderholt, who hails from Haleyville, has represented the 4th Congressional District for 20 years. That district runs from the Mississippi line to the Georgia line across north central Alabama and includes Jasper, Cullman, Gadsden and Tuscaloosa. Aderholt got to Washington at the amazingly young age of 31. Therefore, he is only 51 years old and is our most senior and thus most powerful congressman. He is a ranking member of the powerful Appropriations Committee and is in line to be chairman soon. He would be risking a lot and probably has the same power as a freshman U.S. Senator. He is on course to follow in the footsteps of his predecessor Tom Bevill, who was referred to as Alabama’s third senator.
Jo Bonner represented Baldwin and Mobile in the 1st District for over a decade. He left a couple of years ago to accept an Economic Development position at the University of Alabama. He is very well-liked and respected in Washington and was positioned for a leadership post in the GOP Congress. His erudite and sincere demeanor would make him an effective Senator immediately; he also served in the House with a third of the Senators.
The most likely to win the seat in the 2018 Election is Attorney General Luther Strange. He has run statewide three times successfully and has over a three million dollar head start name identification wise.
None of these three men have or will seek Bentley’s appointment. They all realize how unpopular Bentley is and know the history of appointments in Alabama politics. Bentley could redeem some respect and relevance if he went hat in hand to President Donald Trump and offered Trump his appointment. In that case, the governor’s choice would be Trump’s choice. The best choice to bridge the gap may be Perry Hooper Jr., who trumped for Trump in Alabama.
See you next week.