January 18, 2017
The passing of Governor Albert Brewer on January 2nd at 88 years old marks the passing of an era in Alabama politics.
Albert P. Brewer was a good man and a true public servant. Brewer was born in Tennessee, but his folks moved to Decatur when he was very young after his father accepted a job with the Tennessee Valley Authority.
He graduated from Decatur High School with honors, then matriculated to the University of Alabama where he earned his undergraduate and law degrees. Brewer returned to Decatur to begin his law practice. Soon thereafter he was elected to the Alabama Legislature at the ripe old age of 25. He was elected without opposition three times and during his third term he became Speaker of the House. Brewer was the youngest Speaker in state history. In 1966, he beat two prominent state senators without a runoff to win the lieutenant governor’s job, which was much more powerful than it is today.
During his tenure as Speaker and Lt. Governor, either George or Lurleen Wallace was Governor. Brewer was a Wallace ally. When Gov. Lurleen Wallace died of cancer after only 16 months in office, Brewer ascended to the Governor’s office. He quickly and decisively took the reins of state government and became immediately effective. His years in the legislature gave him a keen insight into the machinations of state government. He was very well liked among the legislators and senators he had worked with over the past 15 years and therefore was extremely successful with his legislative agenda. He became a working governor.
Although Brewer was governor for only 33 months, he accomplished more as governor than most of his successors over the past 30 years combined. Brewer brought a low key businesslike style to the governor’s office, which was strikingly different than George Wallace’s racist flamboyant rhetoric and cronyism.
In 1970, Brewer and George Wallace squared off in what is the most memorable classic and pivotal governor’s race in Alabama political history. Brewer led Wallace by a slim margin in the first primary. However, Wallace, with his political life on the line, played the race card overtly in the runoff and defeated Brewer by a narrow margin.
Most political observers believe that had Brewer won, Alabama would have joined other southern states like North Carolina and Florida who had elected progressive pro-business governors. Brewer is often referred to as Alabama’s “New South” Governor.
He was a prince of a fellow and a good friend for over 50 years. I first met Governor Brewer when I was a young 13-year-old page in the State Legislature and he was Speaker of the House. My mentor was the State Representative from my home in Pike County. Mr. Gardner Bassett had been in the House for 24 years and was in his 70’s. He was training me to take his House seat once I was old enough. Mr. Gardner adored and admired the young Speaker Albert Brewer. He got Brewer and I acquainted and we became friends. Brewer would let me sit next to him in the Speaker’s box as he explained how he assigned bills to their proper committee. When Brewer became Lt. Governor in 1967, I was 15 and he made me head of the pages in the Senate. His daughters Becky and Allison served with me as Pages.
Gov. Brewer spent the last 30 years of his life teaching and mentoring law students at Samford University’s Cumberland School of Law. He was a mentor to my daughter, Ginny, while she was in law school at Cumberland, and followed her legal career as if she was his own daughter. Last January, Ginny and I ran into Gov. Brewer at a Birmingham restaurant. He was aging but still had that keen smile and twinkle in his eye.
Gov. Brewer and I had remained good friends over the years and he is featured prominently in my book, Of Goats and Governors: Six Decades of Colorful Political Stories. Thus, it is appropriate that the last time I visited with him was at a book signing in Bessemer. We later had lunch together at the Bright Star. As I close this column I am looking at a photo of Gov. Brewer and me from that day that adorns the wall of my office, with his ever present smile.
Albert Brewer has a special place in Alabama political history and in the hearts of many.
See you next week.
January 11, 2017
Alabama is going to fare wall under President Trump. There is an old adage that says, “Those that bake the pie get to eat it.” We truly baked the pie for Trump. We overwhelmingly supported him in the GOP primary and helped him secure the nomination. We then gave him one of the largest mandates in the nation in the November General Election.
Trump is indeed returning the favor. He has named our own Jeff Sessions Attorney General. His confirmation hearings begin this week. In addition, speculation is that Alabama’s Bill Pryor is on a very short list to be named to the U.S. Supreme Court by Trump to fill the vacancy on the Court of the late Antonin Scalia.
Pryor is a former Alabama Attorney General, who currently sits on the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta. Pryor is only 54. He served as Alabama Attorney General from 1997-2004. He was the youngest state attorney general in the country at that time. He was appointed to the federal bench in 2005 by President George W. Bush. During his 11 years on the federal bench he has rendered a sterling conservative record.
Pryor and Sessions have amazingly similar backgrounds. Both call Mobile their native home. Both were Attorney General of Alabama. Both have impeccable arch conservative philosophies and pedigrees. They are kindred spirits and good friends. That is probably why Pryor is on Trump’s short list for the High Court.
Most of the frontrunners to win the open Sessions Senate seat have avoided Bentley’s appointment. So how is the race shaking out to fill the Sessions’ seat? The frontrunner out of the gate is Attorney General Luther Strange. Big Luther has run three successful statewide races and is sitting on over 50% statewide name recognition. Furthermore, he is dedicated to running and has been for 20 years. He spent the first 20 years of his professional career lobbying in Washington for Sonat. He came home 20 years ago to run for a secondary statewide office and lay the groundwork to get back to Washington as a U.S. Senator. He has been biding his time for his buddies Sessions and Shelby to retire or move on. When Sessions’ appointment became imminent, Big Luther hit the ground running and has been raising money for 2018 for two months.
The other statewide elected officials will probably not join the 2018 Senate fray. Secretary of State John Merrill has a good future. He is 53 and will probably run for reelection or maybe Lieutenant Governor.
PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh will probably run for Lieutenant Governor or maybe Governor. It is uncertain what State Treasurer Young Boozer will do. However, his tentativeness has probably left him out of the Senate race.
Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan is running for Governor. State Auditor Jim Ziegler will run for Governor, Attorney General or reelection. Roy Moore is the favorite to win the 2018 Governor’s Race.
Congressman Robert Aderholt would be the best qualified to run and succeed Sessions. He and Sessions went to Washington together 20 years ago. However, his 20 years of seniority in the House has placed him in a powerful congressional leadership position. He is poised to be Chairman of the U.S. House Appropriations Committee. His move to being a freshman Senator would be a lateral move. Alabama and his district would be best served by his staying in the House.
Mobile and Baldwin County folks believe that they deserve the Senate seat since Sessions is a Mobilian. There are three potential candidates from the Port City/Gulf Coast Region. Former Congressman Jo Bonner is not going to run. Current Congressman Bradley Byrne would have the best chance to win among all the potential Mobile candidates. He was almost elected Governor. However, Byrne is probably not going to leave his safe congressional seat. He likes it and is good at it. State Senator Trip Pittman from Baldwin County is in the race and is running hard. If he continues to be the only major horse from that area in the race and it becomes a crowded field he may be in a runoff.
Speaking of regionalism, look at a horse from Huntsville to enter the race. If there is one primary candidate from the Tennessee Valley they will be a player. Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle may pivot and move from the Governor’s race to the Senate. Folks in that area have always been more interested in national politics than state politics because of the Redstone Arsenal.
State Senate President Pro Tem Del Marsh of Anniston seems very interested in this open U.S. Senate seat. He has sought the Bentley appointment. However, being a powerful State Senator does not translate into statewide name identification.
See you next week.
January 04, 2017
This past year in Alabama politics was surprisingly more interesting than was expected. The judicial inquiry commission removed Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore from the bench for telling the probate judges in the state to not perform marriage ceremonies for gay people. He said marriage should be between a man and a woman, as do most people in Alabama. This removal by this vague panel of former lawyers and judges has caused legislators to call for an investigation of who this panel is and how they have this much power.
More importantly, Judge Moore’s views and martyrdom has catapulted him into an early frontrunner position for the governorship of Alabama in next year’s upcoming election. He is prohibited from running for the Court again because he is 72 and Alabama law does not allow someone to run for judgeships after age 70. Therefore, it was expected that he was going to run for governor. However, his expulsion has propelled his polling numbers to strategic levels.
Our good ole Dr. Gov. Robert Bentley’s saga played out over the year. It is titillating and fun to follow. However, it has pretty much rendered him somewhat irrelevant as governor.
Donald J. Trump’s victory for the presidency is of course the biggest political story of 2016. It overshadows our shenanigans in Alabama. Trump is very popular in Alabama. His victories in our GOP primary and in the November General Election were record setting vote tallies for the Heart of Dixie.
As we enter 2017, the beginning of the Trump presidency will be the news. His administration will and has already affected Alabama politics significantly. His Attorney General will be our own Senator Jeff Sessions.
Our Senior Senator Richard Shelby has had one seat for 30 years and Sessions has been in the other seat for 20 years. Therefore, this open seat is a rarity and will be coveted. By law, the Governor appoints the holder of the vacant seat, which will be for an interim time. The election for the seat will probably occur at the same time as the governor’s race, which will be 17 months from now in the GOP primary in June of 2018.
The most qualified person to take the seat would be someone from our state congressional delegation, especially someone who has served in Congress from Alabama for a decade or more. The two who fit that bill and who are the most imminently qualified are Congressman Robert Aderholt and former Congressman Jo Bonner.
Aderholt, who hails from Haleyville, has represented the 4th Congressional District for 20 years. That district runs from the Mississippi line to the Georgia line across north central Alabama and includes Jasper, Cullman, Gadsden and Tuscaloosa. Aderholt got to Washington at the amazingly young age of 31. Therefore, he is only 51 years old and is our most senior and thus most powerful congressman. He is a ranking member of the powerful Appropriations Committee and is in line to be chairman soon. He would be risking a lot and probably has the same power as a freshman U.S. Senator. He is on course to follow in the footsteps of his predecessor Tom Bevill, who was referred to as Alabama’s third senator.
Jo Bonner represented Baldwin and Mobile in the 1st District for over a decade. He left a couple of years ago to accept an Economic Development position at the University of Alabama. He is very well-liked and respected in Washington and was positioned for a leadership post in the GOP Congress. His erudite and sincere demeanor would make him an effective Senator immediately; he also served in the House with a third of the Senators.
The most likely to win the seat in the 2018 Election is Attorney General Luther Strange. He has run statewide three times successfully and has over a three million dollar head start name identification wise.
None of these three men have or will seek Bentley’s appointment. They all realize how unpopular Bentley is and know the history of appointments in Alabama politics. Bentley could redeem some respect and relevance if he went hat in hand to President Donald Trump and offered Trump his appointment. In that case, the governor’s choice would be Trump’s choice. The best choice to bridge the gap may be Perry Hooper Jr., who trumped for Trump in Alabama.
See you next week.
December 28, 2016
At the close of every year my tradition is to acknowledge the passing away of significant political players from the political stage in Alabama. We have lost some Icons from politics in the Heart of Dixie this year.
Lucy Baxley passed away in October in Birmingham at 78. She was born on a farm in rural Houston County in the community of Pansy. She went to school at Ashford. After graduation from high school she went to work at the courthouse in Dothan and worked for Judge Keener Baxley.
When Judge Baxley’s son, Bill, got elected Attorney General in 1970, young Bill Baxley asked Lucy to come to Montgomery to be his administrative assistant. Eight years later she and Bill married. She was an integral part of Baxley’s first campaign for Governor in 1978. Bill became Lt. Governor in 1982, then lost again for governor in 1986. Soon, thereafter, Bill and Lucy ended their ten year marriage.
Lucy then began her own career in Alabama politics. She was elected State Treasurer in 1990 and spent eight years in that post. She was a natural campaigner. One of the best one-on-one I have ever seen. She worked the state during those eight years as Treasurer, especially among senior citizen groups.
She parlayed that campaign into being elected as the first female lieutenant governor in history. In that 1998 campaign, she coined the campaign phrase, “I Love Lucy.” Her signs were all over the state. Her name identification was so pronounced that her lieutenant governor’s parking space simply said “Lucy.”
She was the Democratic nominee for governor in 2002, but lost to Republican Bob Riley. She finished her political career by serving on the Public Service Commission. Lucy loved Alabama and folks loved her.
Judge Perry O. Hooper, Sr. passed away in his hometown of Montgomery in April at the age of 91. Judge Hooper’s career paralleled the growth and dominance of the Republican Party in Alabama. He was indeed one of the founding Fathers of the modern Republican Party in the Heart of Dixie. He was a Republican before it was cool. One time when he was state party chairman, Hooper would joke that he could call a meeting of the state GOP in a phone booth.
Hooper was a Marine. His lovely wife, Marilyn, was a Montgomery native and they raised four fine boys. As a pioneer Republican he led the Goldwater landslide of the South in 1964. That crescendo propelled him into the Montgomery Probate Judge office. He was reelected to that post in 1970 and in 1974, he moved to a Montgomery Circuit judgeship.
Twenty years later Judge Hooper broke the ice of control that the Democrats and Trial Lawyers had over the State Supreme Court. He became the First Republican Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court. Democrats and Republicans alike noted at his funeral that during his years as a Judge he treated everyone fairly.
Jim Bennett was the longest serving Secretary of State in Alabama history. Jim passed away in Birmingham in August at age 76, shortly after being diagnosed with cancer. Jim was a writer, reporter, State Representative, State Senator and Secretary of State.
He became a reporter for the Birmingham Post Herald after graduation from Jacksonville State. He covered the Civil Rights protests in Birmingham in 1963 and stood next to Bull Conner when he ordered fire hoses turned on protesters, including children. He once told me he interviewed George Wallace, Bull Conner and Martin Luther King in the same day.
He ran for and was elected to the state legislature in 1978. We served together in the House. He later moved to the Senate. He was first appointed Secretary of State in 1993. He won the election in 1994 and served two four year terms through 2003. He is not only the longest serving Secretary of State, but is also the only one to have been elected as both a Democrat and as a Republican.
He was a longtime member of the Jacksonville State University Board of Trustees and was Chairman of the Board when he passed away. Jim Bennett was a true public servant.
Have a Happy New Year!
December 21, 2016
Historically speaking, Alabamians have been more interested in the governor’s race than presidential politics.
For years, from 1876 to 1964, we were a totally Democratic state, more so out of tradition than philosophically. The hatred for the radical Republican Reconstruction shackles invoked on the South made an indelible mark on white southern voters. It was so instilled, that there are a good many stories told throughout the South where a dying grandfather would gather his children and grandchildren around his deathbed and gaspingly admonish them, “Two things I’m gonna tell y’all before I die – don’t ever sell the family farm and don’t ever vote for a damn Republican.”
That all changed in November of 1964. Barry Goldwater and the Republicans became the party of segregation and the white southern voter fled the Democratic Party en mass. As the fall election of 1964 approached, the talk in the old country stores around Alabama was that a good many good old boys were going to vote straight Republican even if their daddies did turn over in their graves. Well folks, there were a good many papas turning over in their graves all over the South. The entire South changed parties on that day 52 years ago.
Since we were a solid Democratic state for 90 years, we really had no say in the presidential selection process. We are in the same position today, being a solid Republican state. Therefore, it makes sense that we would have more interest in gubernatorial politics than presidential rhetoric because we have much more of a say in that contest. In addition, all of our other offices are up for election in the race for governor year, including all 67 sheriffs, all 140 members of the legislature, and all other constitutional offices such as attorney general, agriculture commissioner, secretary of state and treasurer.
Indeed, for most of our past there were more votes cast in the Democratic Primary for Governor of Alabama than in a presidential contest. Today, our voting proclivity runs more along the national percentage. We also have the same tendency to vote more against someone than for someone.
George Wallace used to always say give me a good boogeyman to run against. Well, lest you forget Hillary Clinton was the best boogeyman to vilify before Barack Obama. He was the hated villain for an eight year interlude. Now Bill and Hillary have taken back their rightful place as the face of the despised national Democratic Party among white southerners.
Therefore, as this year began, I thought it would be a yawner, a sleeper year for good old Alabama politics. However, we have had some good theater. Not to be outdone by the colorful campaign of Donald Trump, who was a continuous circus or vaudeville act, our local Alabama characters have put on quite a show.
It began with the ethics trial of former House Speaker Mike Hubbard, which was a lengthy, detailed, fully vetted and well run process. Hubbard was found guilty by a Lee County jury, which he represented in the legislature. He will ultimately go to jail, a state prison, which is woefully overcrowded and dangerous.
While the Hubbard story was anticipated and expected, the saga of good ole Dr. Robert Bentley has remained in the news continuously throughout the entire year. His former buddy, Spencer Collier, has filed a lawsuit against the Governor and his girlfriend. Now comes a second suit and revelations by his former Security Chief Ray Lewis which is juicier and adds to and confirms Collier’s story. This will probably keep the salacious story alive for another year or more.
Bentley has been relegated to an irrelevant punch line or joke. He would not have been so adversely ridiculed if he had not been perceived as a family values man, churchman, retired doctor and looked like an old grandfather.
There is an old saying in politics that if you ride a white horse you better not get mud on it because it shows up. Another truism is sex sells.
Ain’t Alabama politics fun? Wow – what a year! Now we will get ready for the 2018 gubernatorial year, and to top it off, we have also got an open Senate seat up for grabs.
We will have a governor’s race and an open U.S. Senate race in the same year. Those races have begun. Since winning the Republican primary is tantamount to election in Alabama, we elect a new governor and new U.S. Senator in June of 2018, which is less than 18 months from now.
See you next week.
December 14, 2016
While the presidential race played out this year, several things happened in Alabama politics that went under the radar.
First, a federal appeals court upheld the legislature’s banning PAC to PAC transfers. The new Republican legislative majority that marched into the Statehouse in 2011 set out to destroy and bury the last bastion of Democratic power in the state – the once omnipotent Alabama Education Association. They succeeded.
One of the legs they sawed off was the PAC to PAC money laundering scheme that AEA so adroitly used to funnel and hide their campaign contributions. The primary beneficiary of the AEA transfer was to Joe Reed’s Alabama Democratic Conference. The three judge panel’s ruling does not limit the amount of money that the ADC can raise, it just disallows the AEA from transferring money to their sister organization.
The AEA/ADC coalition was not the only group using this PAC to PAC shell game of hiding campaign contributions. The practice was pervasive. However, the ADC was the one that sued to say that the PAC to PAC prohibition was unconstitutional because it banned free speech and due process.
Attorney General Luther Strange praised the ruling saying “the PAC to PAC transfer ban has been instrumental in limiting campaign corruption while adding greater transparency to the election process.” This federal court ruling has hammered an additional final nail in the coffin of the once vaunted AEA.
In early October, the U.S. Justice Department launched a statewide investigation into the safety and sanitary conditions of Alabama’s men’s prisons. It has been common knowledge that Alabama’s prisons are overcrowded. It is probably a foregone conclusion that there is a very real possibility that the federal courts may intervene and take over control of our prisons.
The state already settled a suit with the Department of Justice over problems with the Julia Tutwiler women’s prison in Wetumpka arising out of allegations of physical and sexual violence. This settlement occurred about a year ago. The Justice Department is now saying that the same problems exist in the men’s prisons. The DOJ investigation may very well be the precursor to federal intervention.
The prison problem will have to be front and center when the legislature convenes in February. State Senator Cam Ward of Shelby County, who chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee and has been at the forefront of the prison issue, says, “At the end of the day you have to change the facilities to some degree not just for the safety of inmates but for the safety of those who work there.”
Alabama’s prisons were at 178 percent capacity in July. This severe overcrowding is the primary contributing factor to violence in prisons. There have been six homicides at the St. Clair Correctional facility between 2011 and 2014. There have been riots at Holman prison in Atmore. The Bibb and Bessemer correctional facilities have seen numerous allegations of physical and sexual abuse. All three U.S. Attorneys in the State have tacitly agreed with the Justice Department investigation.
The Governor’s Advisory Council on gambling is meeting and will formulate a plan of action to propose to the legislature when they convene in February. This seven-member advisory panel will examine the entire gambling gambit. Hopefully, this council will promulgate a plan of action for gambling in Alabama.
This issue of gambling has plagued the state for decades. In fact, it has existed since the state’s founding. Gambling revenue is probably the state’s largest potential revenue source. Our state is losing millions of dollars to our surrounding states.
Hopefully, this council will look at all aspects of gambling including the lottery, how to extract some money from the Poarch Creek Indian casino monopoly, and also allowing the locally sanctioned facilities in Greene, Macon and Lowndes counties to exist and pay some state taxes.
The council should have a recommendation to give the legislature by January 31, 2017, in time for the legislative session in February.
The race for our open U.S. Senate seat is beginning to percolate. Candidates will be wise to avoid the interim appointment to the seat by Gov. Bentley. The early favorites to win election to the seat are Attorney General Luther Strange and Congressman Robert Aderholt. A host of viable candidates will enter the fray.
See you next week.
December 06, 2016
It is Christmas time, and since Alabama is one of the most charitable states in the nation, I would expect that many of us are in the giving mood and plan to help many worthy causes across our great state. Unfortunately, it appears that some recent rulings by the Alabama Ethics Commission are going to make it more difficult for charities across the state to raise the funds that they need to serve our communities.
Many charities in Alabama are concerned that an unintended consequence of recent Commission interpretations of the ethics law is that it could restrict the ability of public officials and employees and their family members to be involved in fundraising for charities and other organizations that they support, including public schools and universities.
You may not be aware, but there are over 300,000 public officials and employees at the state and local level who are covered by Alabama’s ethics law. Many of these individuals are leaders in their communities, who are appointed to positions of public responsibility such as school boards and water boards. Not surprisingly, these same individuals are often also involved in supporting a number of worthy causes and charities by helping with their fundraising and serving on their boards.
The problem is, over the past year or so, in an effort to implement what they seem to believe the law requires, the Ethics Commission has issued guidance that places restrictions on the ability of public officials and employees to help charities by seeking donations from various individuals, businesses, and organizations.
While their intentions are no doubt good, the broad language of these rulings has caused major issues for charities across the state. This is because a number of those charities rely on individuals, who happen to be part-time members of public boards who are covered by these ethics laws. As a result, charities are asking anyone involved in a public body not to fundraise for them no matter how much they have done so in the past. I do not expect that anyone was thinking about these situations when they amended the ethics laws back in 2010, but it appears that this is another one of those unintended consequences of a well-intentioned law.
To make matters worse, under the Commission’s interpretations of these laws, the restrictions on charity fundraising also seem to apply to the family members of these 300,000 public servants who are raising money for a charity. This means that these rulings affect the ability of many more Alabamians. There are probably close to one million folks who help raise money for the charities that they support.
Hopefully, the Commission will clear up this confusion. However, if they do not, I expect that the outcry will be so great that the Legislature will take action.
Remember that this is not the first time we have had problems with broad interpretations of the ethics laws at Christmastime.
Back in December 2011, you may recall, the Ethics Commission issued rulings that raised a lot of questions and concerns about the ability of public school teachers to accept Christmas gifts from students under these same ethics laws. The concerns arose then because of some of the changes to the law that had gone into effect earlier in 2011.
The Commission’s rulings in 2011 did not, in the end, clear things up very much for students and their teachers in time for Christmas. However, in the following legislative session in 2012, the Legislature amended the ethics law to make it easier for students to give Christmas gifts to public school teachers and coaches. The legislative fix was needed to address an unintended consequence of the law.
I think we are all hoping this current problem for charitable fundraising is resolved by the Ethics Commission in time for Christmas. We do not need our charities and other worthy causes to suffer an unintended consequence of a well-intentioned law.
See you next week.
November 30, 2016
It is definite, our Junior Senator, Jeff Sessions, is going to be President Donald Trump’s Attorney General, as well as his closest advisor.
Sessions will be confirmed by the Senate. He has been a respected member of the Senate for 20 years. He has an impeccably clean history of integrity. Even though he is and has been one of the Senate’s most ardent right wing conservatives, the Democratic senators on the left respect him. He has served on the Senate Judiciary Committee his entire tenure in the House of Lords and he has voted to confirm liberals to the high court even though he disagreed with them philosophically.
All 52 Senate Republicans will vote for confirmation and probably most Democrats. Instead, the Democrats will pick on other conservative Trump appointees, if only out of respect for Sessions and Senate deference and courtesy.
The liberal eastern media has scrutinized all of Trump’s appointments. Statements supposedly made by Sessions 30 years ago will not stand in the way of his confirmation.
Sessions is uniquely qualified for Attorney General having been Attorney General of Alabama along with his twenty years on the Senate Judiciary Committee. He was considered for Secretary of Defense and also would have been qualified for that post given that he has served on the Armed Services Committee for two decades. Defense would have been better for Alabama. The impact that the Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, Maxwell/Gunter in Montgomery and Ft. Rucker in the Wiregrass have on the economy of Alabama is immense.
Speaking of Alabama’s influence in Washington, we do lose a senator with 20 years of seniority. Therefore, we will have an open Senate seat in the Heart of Dixie for the first time in two decades.
The Sessions vacancy will be coveted by every viable political figure in the state, as well as everybody who ever won a 4-H speaking contest. The Governor gets to nominate a senator for the vacancy, although the label will be interim Senator.
Sessions’ current term in the Senate goes through 2020. However, the primary and general election will probably be in 2018. To call a special election prior to that would cost $4 million and get only a 15-20 percent turnout. Besides, the 2018 election is practically already here.
The Republican primary is tantamount to election in Alabama. It will be held in June of 2018. Fundraising for state offices will begin this June – one year prior to the primary election. However, federal fundraising can begin immediately. Therefore, the bell has already rung for election to Sessions’ seat. The smart candidates would be best served to ignore and avoid the interim appointment by Governor Robert Bentley. The appointment is a kiss of death.
First of all, Bentley is extremely unpopular and most people think he is totally irrelevant, irrational and distracted by his personal advisor. Whoever is appointed by Bentley may be associated with him.
Secondly, history reveals that people in Alabama resent someone getting an appointment. They like electing their politicians. The last time there was an open Senate seat was a couple of decades ago. We actually had two open at one time. George Wallace had two appointments. Both appointees lost in the next election, and believe me, Wallace was more popular then than Bentley is now.
This has happened over and over again in Alabama politics for high profile posts. Alabama voters resent an appointment, especially if the appointee seeks election to that office. Therefore, my advice to anyone who wants to be a U.S. Senator is start running for it right now. Declare and start shaking hands from Gulf Shores to Huntsville and do not detour by the Governor’s office in Montgomery. The appointment will be tainted even if by chance you are the best qualified and Bentley makes a rational appointment, which would be unusual and unlikely.
The list of names that have surfaced as potential candidates to run for the seat are 20 year veteran Congressman Robert Aderholt, Attorney General Luther Strange, State Treasurer Young Boozer, Secretary of State John Merrill, Congressman Mike Rogers, Congressman Mo Brooks, Supreme Court Justice Jim Main, State Senators Del Marsh, Trip Pittman, Cam Ward, Greg Reed, Dick Brewbaker, and former State Representative Perry Hooper, Jr., and finally Congresswoman Martha Roby may figure if you are going to lose reelection to your current seat in 2018 anyway, you may as well go out running for the Senate.
We will keep you posted.
November 23, 2016
Our Senior U.S. Senator Richard Shelby will begin his sixth six-year term in January. He is an Alabama treasure. Over the past 30 years as our Senator he has brought millions of federal dollars home to Alabama.
Richard Shelby currently reigns as Alabama’s most prominent political figure. He is one of Alabama’s three greatest Senators in history along with Lister Hill and John Sparkman. Shelby is easily one of the most influential political figures in the nation.
Shelby has had a perfectly scripted rise to political power and acclaim. In 1970 at age 35, he entered politics and was elected to the State Senate from Tuscaloosa. He ran for an open seat in Congress in 1978 and won. In 1986 he rolled the dice, gave up his safe congressional seat and took on an incumbent Senator.
In 1986, Shelby was a 50-year-old Congressman a Democrat who had a stellar conservative voting record. He was safe in his U. S. House seat. Therefore, his decision to challenge an incumbent U. S. Senator was a gamble. His friends cautioned him that it was an uphill battle and he should not risk his safe House seat. His basic reply was, “I’m one of 435 in congress, given the rules of seniority, it will be 20 more years before I can chair a committee or subcommittee. They don’t even know my name up here. I’m either going to the Senate and be somebody, or I’m going home and make money.”
One factor that the average political observer was not aware of that Shelby probably sensed was that his congressional district was destined to be the first African American district after reapportionment in 1990. That is what happened to Shelby’s 7th District.
Although it would be a daunting task to upset an incumbent, U. S. Senator, Jeremiah Denton had written a textbook on how to lose a Senate seat during his six-year term. Denton was elected as Alabama’s first Republican Senator since Reconstruction in 1980. He was swept into office on the coattails of Ronald Reagan who carried Alabama in a landslide. Alabamians knew very little about Denton except that he had been a naval officer and a well-known national POW in the Vietnam War. His patriotic hero position sold well in Alabama, especially with Reagan headed to the White House.
Yet Shelby beat Denton. It was close and Shelby had to spend some of his personal money the last week of the campaign to carry out the upset, but Alabama has been the better for Richard Shelby’s 1986 gamble. He was been reelected in 1992, 1998, 2004, 2010 and now in 2016.
I had the opportunity to fly back from Washington with and visit with Shelby a few years after his 1986 victory. He told me the inside story of the last six days of that campaign that illustrates how important money and media are in today’s modern politics.
When he decided to run against Denton, he knew the importance of money to a campaign. He also knew that it was essential to get the best media guru regardless of the price. Therefore, he spared no expense and got the best pollster and media people in America. About six days out, he was six points behind. The pollster told him to put $100,000 of TV ads in the Birmingham market using a certain ad and it would raise him two points. He did and it did. The next day the media man and the pollster told him to spend $50,000 on TV ads in the Mobile market using a certain ad and it would give him a one point boost. He did and it did. The next day the pollster told him to run a certain ad in the Huntsville market and spend $60,000 and it would raise him a point. He did and it did. Two days out the pollster told him to run a certain ad in both Birmingham and Montgomery and it would raise him by three points. He did and it did.
He won by one point. I suspect the ad most suggested by the pollster and the media guys was the one where Denton was saying he didn’t have time to come home and kiss babies’ butts.
See you next week.
November 16, 2016
Donald J. Trump’s election to the presidency left the pollsters and pundits from every media outlet and news network with egg on their face. It also left them with their mouths ajar in shock.
Every poll and every pundit had Hillary Clinton winning the presidency. It was assumed that the Electoral College advantage for a liberal Democrat was impregnable. Trump’s amazing surprise victory will be recorded as one of the biggest upsets in modern political history. It will be compared to and was very similar to the upset victory that Harry Truman pulled off against Thomas Dewey in 1948.
There are uncanny similarities between the Truman come from behind victory and the Trump win. All polls showed Truman losing. However, in the final weeks of the campaign, Truman was bringing out large crowds as he spoke from the back of a train in what was referred to as his Whistle Stop Tour. Toward the very end his crowds were growing larger and larger.
Like Trump, Truman was plain spoken and the crowds would shout out, “Give ‘em hell Harry!” He would retort, “That’s what I plan to do.” It was so assumed that Truman would lose that there was a famous photo of Truman holding up a copy of the “Chicago Tribune” with the headline, “Dewey Wins.” Similarly, there is this year’s revelation that “Newsweek” in order to get to press early had Hillary winning with the headline, “Madam President.” They had to recall millions of copies. Also, I have had to admit that yours truly had written a much different headline story on the Monday before Tuesday’s Election Day for today’s column.
There is no question that we live in two distinct, diverse, and different philosophical Americas when it comes to presidential politics. It appears that we in the south are not the only folks in America who believe in a balanced budget, a strong military, and sustaining a strong agricultural base. In addition, we may not be alone when it comes to being pro-life and pro-gun. The rest of the country may be more like us than we think. We obviously have some southern thinking folks in the Midwestern Rust Belt states
In short Trump won the election because white conservatives all over the country turned out in mass as though their nation depended on it and they probably were right. Evangelical Christian voters realized the importance of the impending Supreme Court appointments. That will indeed be Trump’s most lasting legacy. He will appoint conservatives to our Supreme Court, and they will be confirmed by a Republican U.S. Senate.
The Republican control of the Senate is another victory for conservatives throughout the country. Trump will be a Republican President with a Republican U.S. Senate and a Republican conservative U.S. House. This Republican governing majority will be immensely beneficial to Alabama. Six of our seven congressmen are Republicans.
More importantly our two Senators, Richard Shelby and Jeff Sessions, are in the majority in the Senate. Shelby will be beginning his sixth six-year term. Within two years he will break the record set by John Sparkman as the longest serving Senator in Alabama history. But, more significantly, he will become Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee.
The Trump election changes the entire political landscape in Alabama politics. More than likely, President Trump will appoint our Senator, Jeff Sessions, to a major cabinet position – more than likely Secretary of Defense. Sessions will probably accept this prestigious and powerful post.
Folks this leaves a vacant U.S. Senate seat in the Heart of Dixie. There are probably a dozen major viable political figures who will pursue this coveted once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Governor Bentley will appoint Session’s successor. However, whoever gets the appointment will have to run in 2018.
Bentley has been unorthodox and unpredictable in his appointments. This one is by far the most significant of his tenure. Some speculation is that he might appoint himself or a close advisor. Others say he will appoint Attorney General Luther Strange, who will probably run for the post in 2018, regardless. Some say the inside track belongs to Perry Hooper, Jr., who has statewide name identification from his role as Trump’s front man in the state and has a staunch conservative lifetime GOP pedigree.
If you thought we had a good year awaiting us in 2018, it has become exponentially more titillating. We will have a governor’s race, U.S. Senate race, and every constitutional office is up for grabs, as well as all 140 State House and Senate seats. It will be quite a year and believe me, it has already begun.
See you next week.