July 12, 2017
The race for our open U.S. Senate seat is evolving. Folks, we are in a brief 33-day sprint to the primary on August 15. The winner of the Republican Primary will be our next junior U.S. Senator. The December 12 General Election will be a coronation for the Republican. The eight Democratic candidates are irrelevant as are at least six of the Republican qualifiers.
It is doubtful that either candidate can win the August GOP Primary without a runoff. Therefore, the two left standing will square off on September 26, after six more weeks of grueling and negative campaigning.
All early indications pointed to a two-man race between Roy Moore and Luther Strange. However, both of these high profile veterans of state politics have high negatives. These high negatives surrounding Moore and Strange point to the high possibility of a third person winning this race.
The possible outside horse has emerged. Tennessee Valley Congressman, Mo Brooks, is gaining momentum. He could be the surprise in the race. Brooks garnered an amazing amount of free publicity by being one of the Republican Congressmen targeted and shot at in the June shooting of Republican congressional baseball players.
You cannot get any better introduction to Alabama voters than being given prime time news coverage as an Alabama Congressman who is so conservative that a left wing wacko, Bernie Sanders socialist gunman fires upon you while you are riding your bicycle to practice baseball for the Republican team.
It is now a three-man horserace heading into the homestretch. Every poll has Moore leading Strange and Brooks fighting for the runoff spot with the Ten Commandments Judge.
Polling indicates that the majority of GOP Primary voters in our state do not want to vote for either Roy Moore or Luther Strange. Both have a large reservoir of detractors. Middle of the road, urbane Republicans are turned off and embarrassed by Roy Moore. They look upon him as a demagoguing, backwoods, Primitive Baptist, religious nut. They cringe at how he might embarrass the state if he got to Washington. The Beltway Republican establishment fears Moore’s independence and religious zealot antics and demonstrations. That is why you will see millions of Washington Super PAC money flow into the Heart of Dixie to elect Luther Strange.
Luther’s negatives stem from the way he garnered the interim senate seat vacancy. The perception is that he is currently in Washington because of a brazen, audacious, corrupt deal between him and disgraced former governor, Robert Bentley. It looks to the average voter that Luther Strange and Robert Bentley were in collusion in a backroom deal where Bentley, in his waning hours as governor, gave Luther Strange the appointment in exchange for Luther, as Attorney General, not moving with prosecuting Bentley and his advisor.
Millions of Washington money may be able to wash away the Bentley taint. That is what Luther is banking on happening. You are seeing the avalanche of TV and media buys for Big Luther. His Washington handlers are scripting him to perfection. They are keeping him hidden out of sight. They are avoiding all media and debates. They will slip him into an event and get a photo of him there then quickly whisk him away. They will not allow him to be interviewed by any Alabama media. They do not want him to be asked about the appointment. He was pretty good about avoiding the media during his six years as Attorney General. Therefore, his following the instructions of the Potomac pros is an easy script to follow.
Two secondary officeholders could have probably bested Strange out of the runoff. John Merrill or Twinkle Cavanaugh would have been tough for Luther.
The two best candidates from the Congressional delegation would have been Congressmen Bradley Byrne or Robert Aderholt. Either of these two thoroughbreds would have made the runoff with Moore.
The Roy Moore versus Luther Strange battle illuminates a natural divide in the Republican Party. It is almost like two separate tribes.
It pits the evangelical, Donald Trump, George Wallace Republicans against the mainstream pro-business establishment Republicans.
As one North Alabamian told me, “We will see if Moses with his Ten Commandments comes down off Sand Mountain with the Hebrew children and slays the seven foot Philistine Mountain Brook giant.”
See you next week.
July 05, 2017
As we take a mid-year look at Alabama politics, it has been an eventful first half of the year.
It is not every year that a governor resigns mid-term. Governor Robert Bentley’s resignation from office on April 10 will more than likely be the most newsworthy story of the year.
Bentley’s saga had begun 18 months ago. His troubles stemmed from his relationship with his primary and probably only advisor, who was married to a quiet man whom Bentley placed in a vague $90,000 position with the state. It was a titillating story that led to an investigation and later finding by the State Ethics Commission that there was reasonable evidence that Bentley may have violated the law. Facing probable impeachment by the Legislature, Bentley resigned in disgrace.
The most noteworthy event was the appointment of our Junior U.S. Senator Jeff Sessions to the powerful post of U.S. Attorney General. Sessions was one of President Donald Trump’s first Cabinet appointments.
Sessions departure from the Senate seat left open his coveted post. In his waning days as governor, Bentley interviewed about 20 qualified candidates for the interim appointment. Bentley eventually appointed Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange, a worthy choice.
However, the appointment of Strange caused tremendous furor among Alabamians. A few months earlier, Strange stated he was investigating the Governor. The appointment of the Attorney General to the seat had the appearance of a brazen act of collusion between the Governor and Strange.
Bentley resigned a month later and Strange went to Washington. Upon the resignation of Bentley, Lt. Governor, Kay Ivey, became the second female governor in state history. Ironically, Kay was a stalwart supporter and worked for our only other female governor, Lurleen Wallace, when she was in college over 50 years ago.
Governor Kay Ivey has shown calm, deliberative and wise leadership in her first three months as governor. She has done a good job and steadily stuck to her knitting governing, rather than cutting ribbons. She inherited the ship of state in the middle of a legislative session. She stayed in close contact with the Senate leadership and brought the session to a successful landing.
The legislative session could indeed be considered a success. Mac McCutcheon, a Republican Representative from Madison County, led his first regular session as Speaker. McCutchen is level headed and a natural facilitator. He is a retired police officer from Huntsville, who worked as a hostage negotiator. He seems fair and runs a more open and egalitarian House than former Speaker Mike Hubbard.
Any legislative session could be considered successful when both budgets are passed. The $1.8 billion General Fund budget passed early due to a one-time influx of $105 million from the BP oil spill settlement. The beleaguered General Fund will be much harder to balance next year, which will be an election year. For the eighth straight year, state workers got no increase in pay.
Even though the Education Trust Fund budget grew by $90 million, teachers also get no pay increase. The $6.4 billion Education budget did include a 20 percent increase in pre-kindergarten funding.
The Legislature abolished judicial override in death penalty cases, voted to require insurers to extend coverage to autism therapies, and ended the ban on midwifery in Alabama.
They chose not to address the prison overcrowding issue. However, this may be a prudent call. It may be wiser to wait until the federal courts decree what they want from the state. This could be a paramount issue that requires a Special Session.
The Republican majority ramrodded a reapportionment plan through the Senate and House over adamant disapproval of black Democrats. The final authority on whether it will stand rests with the federal courts. Until this is decided, there is a cloud over the upcoming legislative races. Republican legislators may have overplayed their hand this time. A federal judge may send Alabama’s demographics to a computer in New York to draw the lines and several of them may find themselves in the same districts several counties away.
See you next week.
June 28, 2017
In Alabama politics many times appointments to political offices filled by an acting governor have an adverse effect on that appointee if and when they seek election to that office for a full term. Every time George Wallace appointed someone to a political post, even in the prime of his popularity and power, they invariably lost in the next election.
Well folks, ole Dr. Bentley ain’t George Wallace and his appointment of Luther Strange to the Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions may come back to haunt Big Luther. His appointment is even more problematic due to the appearance of collusion surrounding the appointment. The taint of the Bentley appointment hovers over Big Luther’s tall head in Washington.
Lyndon Johnson had a similar cloud over his head when he arrived in the U.S. Senate in 1948. It was known that he had stolen the Texas Senate seat when he arrived. When that U.S. Senate seat came open, he made the decision to roll the dice and go for broke. Lyndon did not know that the legendary governor, Coke Stevenson, would enter the race
Coke Stevenson was a legendary Texas icon. He was the epitome of a Texas gentleman and revered. He was Texas’ Horatio Alger and Davy Crockett combined. He raised himself from age 12, built a ranching empire, was Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives and a very popular Governor of Texas. Stevenson was above reproach. He would not lie, steal or cheat and Texans knew that about old Coke.
On the other hand, Lyndon Johnson had already earned the reputation in Texas that he would continue to earn in Washington – he would do whatever it took to win. He was totally corrupt and ruthless without any semblance of a conscience.
Johnson applied modern day politics to that era. He introduced polling and what it meant in detail. He even used a helicopter to fly from town-to-town and land on court squares to speak and shake hands, but mostly he used negative and false campaign mailings to attempt to destroy Stevenson’s stellar reputation.
Stevenson was from a different era. He refused to go negative and would not reply to any negative accusations no matter how maliciously false.
Johnson was able to utilize this massive media blitz because he had more campaign funds than any candidate in Texas history. He had unlimited financial backing from the giant Brown and Root Company of Texas, which is now Halliburton Corporation. They were then, as they are now, the recipients of gigantic government construction contracts. Johnson was their boy and would do their bidding as their senator so they poured money into the race like water.
Johnson outspent Stevenson 10-1, but it was not enough. When the votes were counted on election night, Stevenson had won by a narrow margin. However, the election was not over; Stevenson was about to be counted out.
The Rio Grande Valley along the Texas and Mexican border was known as the region where votes could be bought. Most close elections were decided in these counties, which would come in days after the original count with just the right number of votes needed to win the election. This is how Johnson won by only 87 votes in a race where over one million votes were cast.
Johnson became known as “Landslide Lyndon” in Washington because of this 87-vote victory. It was also an allusion to how he had stolen the seat. Some people think that the nickname “Landslide Lyndon” stems from Johnson’s landslide victory over Barry Goldwater in the 1964 presidential race, but it was actually from the 1948 Texas Senate race.
A legendary tale that is attributed to Johnson in this infamous race claims that in the days following the election, while garnering enough votes for victory, Johnson and the political bosses of the Valley counties were going through cemeteries and taking names of dead Mexicans off the tombstones to register voters. They could not decipher one of the names and asked Lyndon what to do, Johnson quickly replied, “Give him a name, he’s got as much right to vote as the rest of them in this cemetery.”
See you next week
June 21, 2017
The much-anticipated 2018 election contests have been pushed back by about three months due to the unanticipated race for Jeff Sessions’ senate seat. This ongoing contest will occupy the news through late September.
It was previously thought that June 6 would be the opening bell since fundraising for next year’s June 5 Primary could begin at that time. However, the bell will probably commence to chime in full force by Labor Day.
It will be a year for the record books. The ballot will be so long that it will take most folks 15 minutes to vote. We will have an open governor’s race with at least six to nine viable candidates. That same number of folks will be in the open Lt. Governor’s race. You will have a hotly contested open race for Attorney General. There will be five seats up for election on the State Supreme Court. There will be a fight among two sitting Justices, Tom Parker and Lyn Stuart, for Chief Justice, all Probate Judges, and many Circuit and District Court Judges in the State will be running as well as all 67 Sheriffs.
However, the most money will be spent on the 35 State Senate races and 105 State House seats.
In recent years, special interest money in Montgomery has gravitated more than ever to legislative races. The 2018 legislative money raising could begin on June 6 but the jockeying and final decision-making will be delayed by not only the U.S. Senate race. There is also a large cloud of uncertainty as to how the districts will look when all is said and done by the federal courts.
In January a three judge federal panel struck down the current district maps drawn in 2012. The three federal judges were following precedent sent down from the U.S. Supreme Court. Alabama Democrats led by the Alabama Democratic Conference and the Black Legislative Conference prevailed in what appeared to be a “Hail Mary” suit. They won at the U. S. Supreme Court level. The high tribunal’s decision said that the Alabama Republican legislature had intentionally moved Black voters who overwhelmingly vote Democratic into loaded majority-minority districts that made it difficult to form alliances with like-minded white voters.
This new theory embraced by the courts advised that it muted minority voices in the political process. The court is right about that. Democratic Senators and Representatives have been run over repeatedly over the last six years by the Republican majority. They have treated them with irrelevance and irreverence.
The courts told the legislature to fix the lines to suit the Court order. The Republicans ignored the Court and ran over the Democrats again in the regular session. All of the black Democrats voted against the plan. The most contentious issue was over local politics. The Republicans’ maps gave Republicans a one-seat advantage in the House and Senate delegations in Jefferson County. They brought in GOP legislators who live in the suburbs surrounding Birmingham to give them a majority in the demographically Democratic County.
The Courts were essentially ignored in favor of politics. The GOP supermajority continued to use the whip handle with the Democrats.
However, they are not holding the cards in this poker game. When the Court hears the case in September, the GOP plan will be discarded. The court may wind up drawing the new districts that legislators run under in 2018.
The last time the courts drew the lines was in 1983. In that case, the judges sent the demographics and judicial requirements to cartography experts in New York and they fed them into a computer. The Court ordered computer drawn districts that had no regard for county line boundaries or political enclaves, much less protecting incumbents. Several GOP legislators may wake up one morning in October and see that the Courts have put them in the same districts.
Therefore, most lobbyists and special interests are keeping their powder dry. They will probably not be doling out large legislative donations until qualifying time around the first of the year.
The most hotly contested state senate race will be for the Dick Brewbaker seat in the Montgomery River Region. Brewbaker is not running for reelection.
Most insiders expect Senator Harri Ann Smith to retire from her Houston/Geneva Wiregrass seat. Regardless, popular Dothan mayor, Mike Schmitz, is not running for a third term as mayor and is expected to run for that State Senate seat.
We will see.
See you next week.
June 14, 2017
Those of us who follow Alabama politics had circled June 6, 2017 as the beginning of the 2018 governor’s race. However, we did not foresee Donald Trump’s election as President in November and the subsequent appointment of our U.S. Senator, Jeff Sessions, as his Attorney General, thus, opening a U. S. Senate seat and causing the need for an unanticipated special election for the open senate seat this year. Therefore, the race for Sessions’ Senate seat will dominate the political news for at least the next three months.
This Senate seat race has pushed back the timetable for gubernatorial aspirants by about three months. The thoroughbreds who might enter the Derby for the Brass Ring of Alabama politics probably have the luxury of waiting until Labor Day or maybe after the September 26 GOP runoff for U.S. Senator.
However they do need to declare by October 1, because qualifying will begin in late November for next year’s June 5 Primary.
Also we did not anticipate the resignation of Governor Robert Bentley on April 10 and the ultimate elevation of Lt. Governor, Kay Ivey, to Governor.
Kay Ivey has been governor for less than three months; however, she has taken to the post like a “duck to water.” She has been deliberative and decisive and looks very gubernatorial.
She is slowly putting her people into Cabinet posts. Enterprise Mayor, Ken Boswell, is a good choice for ADECA Director. This is a prime post as it doles out all the Federal grants that come to the state for infrastructure projects.
She has named Christopher Blankenship acting Commissioner of Conservation and Natural Resources. She has removed Serve Alabama Director Jon Mason, and Alabama Law Enforcement Agency secretary, Stan Stabler.
Her two closest advisors throughout her career have been Steve Pelham and Will Sellers. She has brought Pelham with her as her Chief of Staff. She has appointed Will Sellers to a vacant seat on the State Supreme Court. Pelham will be the most important person in state government for at least 18 months.
These unforeseen events have changed the political landscape dramatically when it comes to the 2018 governor’s race.
This time last year, Roy Moore and Luther Strange were two of the lead horses for governor. They are now the two frontrunners for the open Senate seat. Win or lose they are removed from the governor’s race.
Kay Ivey’s elevation to governor has made her the favorite at this time. However, as this past year’s events reveal, a lot can change in a year’s time.
As we assess the field with less than a year to the finish line, Kay Ivey is the linchpin of the race. She is the incumbent. She has good name identification and her age, 72, is an advantage rather than a disadvantage. She looks like your grandmother. That sells better than young and glamorous, especially among female voters. They can identify and feel comfortable with Kay. Currently, Kay is in the proverbial catbird’s seat.
The million dollar question is does Kay really want to run for a full four year term. If she were to ask me as a friend, I would tell her no. If I were she, I would not want to go through the rigors of a yearlong campaign. She can go to the house and proudly say that she was Governor of Alabama. A 20-month tenure as governor is not an insignificant amount of time.
There are four significant thoroughbreds in the race, regardless of Ivey’s intentions.
PSC President, Twinkle Cavanaugh, 50, is popular and well positioned. She has won three statewide races.
Agriculture Commissioner, John McMillan, 75, has been at his important post for eight years. He has done an exemplary job. However, he cannot run again. He is well liked.
Huntsville Mayor, Tommy Battle, 61, will be a player in the governor’s race. He is the popular Mayor of Alabama’s economic crown jewel.
Jefferson County Commissioner, David Carrington, 69, could be a factor. He has some name recognition from being seen often in the all-important Birmingham media market. If he gets strong support from the Birmingham suburbs, he could be a dark horse.
Birmingham based evangelist, Scott Dawson, 49, might catch fire.
Tuscaloosa’s popular young mayor, Walt Maddox, may make the gubernatorial plunge as a Democrat.
We will see.
See you next week.
June 07, 2017
Since we are in the midst of an election for a U.S. Senator, let me share the story of one of the most prestigious congressional families in Alabama history. The Bankheads of Jasper would likely be the most prominent political family in Alabama political lore. More than likely there has never been a father serve as one of Americas most powerful U.S. Senators while their son, William Bankhead, served as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives.
The original founder of the famous family was John Hollis Bankhead. He was the patriarch of a family that spawned sons John H. Bankhead, II and Speaker of the U.S. House, William B. Bankhead and daughter, state archivist, Marie Bankhead Owen and granddaughter Tallulah Bankhead, who became a star of stage and screen.
John Hollis Bankhead was born in 1842 on his family’s plantation in present Lamar County. He was educated in local schools and joined the Confederate Army at 19. He fought in numerous Civil War battles and was wounded several times. He entered the Confederate Army as a private and rose to Captain.
After the Civil War he married Tallulah Brockman of Wetumpka and returned to farming his family land. He began his political career by serving four terms in the state legislature. He then was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1886 and served 20 years in Congress.
In 1906, Alabama did an extremely unusual thing. At that time, state legislatures still appointed U.S. Senators. Alabama’s legislature met only every four years and both of the states Senators, Edmund Pettus and John Tyler Morgan, were aging. The State Democratic Party held a primary to choose a successor should one or both of the Senators die before the Legislature met again. It was called the pallbearer’s primary. Bankhead won the primary. In June of 1907, Morgan died and Bankhead took the U.S. Senate seat.
John Bankhead left an indelible legacy as a senator. He was a champion of building federal highways and waterways. America’s first national highway that traverses from Washington D.C. to San Diego, California is named the Bankhead Highway after our Senator John H. Bankhead.
John’s son, William, was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1916. Thus he served simultaneously in the House while his father served in the Senate. He followed his father’s advice to learn the rules. He did and it earned him a seat on the powerful Rules Committee. He was joined on the committee by another southern congressman, who would also make his mark in Congress, Sam Rayburn from Texas.
During William Bankhead’s 23 years in Congress, he became Chairman of the Rules Committee, Majority Leader and then Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. He was and continues to be our only Alabamian to serve as Speaker of the House.
Even though William Bankhead was Alabama’s most distinguished congressman, he was best known as being the father of the most famous and flamboyant actress of that era, Tallulah Bankhead. Tallulah, who was named for her maternal grandmother, was very close to her Speaker father, William. She was renowned for her eccentric and uninhibited behavior and for her throaty utterance calling everyone, “dah-ling.” She thrust the Bankhead name in bright lights on Broadway and in Hollywood.
Senator John Hollis Bankhead had a daughter named Marie who made her mark in Alabama history. Marie Owen Bankhead was the founder of the State Archives Building. She was affectionately called “Miss Marie.” Our magnificent Archives Building across from the Capitol, was built and the funds secured by Miss Marie from the New Deal WPA Program. It did not hurt that her father was one of the nation’s most powerful senators and her brother was Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. Miss Marie Owen Bankhead served as director of the State Archives for 35 years, from 1920-1955.
Besides the national Bankhead Highway, in Alabama we have the Bankhead Tunnel in Mobile, the William B. Bankhead National Forest, which transverses a good portion of Alabama, the Bankhead Home and Heritage Center in Jasper, and the historic Bankhead Avenue in Montgomery.
The Bankhead’s of Alabama are the Deep South’s version of the Kennedy’s.
See you next week.
May 31, 2017
As the race for our open U.S. Senate seat begins, let’s look at the lay of the land.
First-of-all it will be a sprint. The race is upon us with the primaries on August 15 and the run-off six weeks later on September 26. The Republican primary victor will be coronated on December 12. We, in the Heart of Dixie, are a one party state when it comes to major statewide offices. Winning the GOP primary is tantamount to election. Therefore, our new senator will probably be elected on September 26.
With 11 Republicans in the race, it will be highly unlikely that anybody could win without a run-off, so the initial goal is to make the run-off. There are amazingly 19 total candidates who qualified. You can write the 8 Democrats off as irrelevant because a Democrat cannot win in Alabama. With 11 Republicans running, it appears to be a crowded race. However, 6 of the 11 are “run for the fun of it” qualifiers. Therefore, even though the field has a lot of horses, there are only 5 of the 19 who could be considered thoroughbreds and probably only 3 who have a viable chance to win.
Former Chief Justice Roy Moore and former State Attorney General and Robert Bentley appointee to the Senate, Luther Strange, are more than likely headed to a Republican run-off. Huntsville and Tennessee Valley Congressman Mo Brooks has the best chance to challenge for a run-off spot. Initial polling has Roy Moore at 30 percent, Luther Strange at 14 percent and Mo Brooks at 7 percent.
Roy Moore’s removal from his post as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court by some vague Judicial Inquiry Commission for being against gay marriage has made him a hero and martyr among Alabama’s conservative and religious voters. There is a pent up desire to right a wrong among the Alabama people. It is obviously showing up in the polling, but it could be illuminated and result in a higher than anticipated 30 percent.
Polls are a picture of the total pool of voters. However, the final poll and the one that really matters is who actually shows up to vote on August 15. Roy Moore’s folks will be there, they are ardent and mad. They will not be at the lake or the beach. In fact, if there is an extremely low turnout, Moore could conceivably win without a run-off. It is unlikely that occurs. However, he more than likely finishes first and has a spot in the run-off.
Luther Strange will be fighting to hold on to the other spot in the September 26 final dance. He will more than likely prevail in his quest to get into the run-off and keep the seat. Luther will have $10 million of Washington establishment super PAC ammunition at his disposal. It is hard to overcome that kind of money. It is the mother’s milk of politics. Luther is banking on the fact that most U.S. Senate seats are bought by special interest money. Folks, $10 million dollars washes a lot of taint away from the Bentley to Luther deal.
It looks inevitable that Roy Moore and Luther Strange will be in a run-off and the prevailing opinion is that Moore cannot get over 50 percent. However, polling indicates that neither Moore nor Strange can get over 50 percent. They both have a large base of detractors.
This race was ripe to be won by an outside rich man who could spend $10 million of their own money. “Yella Fella” Jimmy Rane walked away from a U.S. Senate seat that was his for the taking.
Congressman Mo Brooks has the best chance to knock Strange out of the run-off. He starts off with a base of support in the Tennessee Valley and $1.2 million in his federal war chest. If he were to raise $3 million, he would probably beat Luther and ultimately would probably beat Moore.
Brooks is to the right of Attila the Hun and belongs to a right wing congressional group known as the Freedom Caucus. There are some very rich right wing zealots around the country who give to Freedom Caucus candidates. They may load ole’ Mo up and teach the Elitist Establishment Mitch McConnell crowd a lesson.
If State Senator, Trip Pittman, from Baldwin County could raise $5 million he could sell. He is the only serious candidate from the vote rich Baldwin/Mobile area.
Dr. Randy Brinson has the perfect background, narrative and family values story. However, like Pittman, he needs $5 million to tell his story.
We will see.
See you next week.
May 24, 2017
Well folks the field is set for the sprint to fill the open U.S. Senate seat of Jeff Sessions.
The primary is less than three months away on August 15. There will probably be a run-off on September 26 and the winner of that GOP run-off will be our Junior Senator from Alabama. In the Heart of Dixie, winning the Republican nomination is tantamount to election. The December 12 General Election will be a coronation for the winner of the September 26 Republican primary.
It was an interesting closing day of qualifying last Wednesday. It was unbelievable how many people showed up to qualify. There are eleven candidates running in the Republican primary and amazingly, the Democrats fielded eight candidates. It was like ants coming out of the woodwork. It was similar to our olden days of Alabama politics when everybody and their brother ran for an open governor’s race or a seldom seen open Senate race. We ought to refer to this race as an ant race rather than a horse race.
Of the nineteen candidates, only about five are viable contenders. Therefore, about fourteen of these folks are running for the fun of it. In fact, we use to refer to them as “run for the fun of it” candidates.
The most colorful run for the fun of it candidate in Alabama political history was Ralph “Shorty” Price. Shorty ran for governor every four years. He usually finished last. His slogan was smoke Tampa Nugget cigars, drink Budweiser beer, and vote for Shorty Price. His campaign platform declared that he would change the term of governor from four years to two years. He would say if you are not smart enough to steal enough as governor in two years, you ain’t smart enough to be governor.
My guess is that if someone put Shorty’s name on this August 15 ballot, he would run sixth out of the 12-person GOP field, posthumously. He would probably win the Democratic nomination from the grave. The party leaders were probably glad to see them all show up. They raked in $3,400 a pop from each qualifier.
You wonder what motivates those also ran candidates to put their names on the ballot. Maybe they just want to see their name on the ballot, maybe their Aunt Susie left them $5,000 with the stipulation that they had to use it to run for the U.S. Senate, or they want to tell their grandchildren one day that they ran for the U.S. Senate. They can omit that they ran eleventh. Maybe they won a 4-H speaking contest when they were in school and figured their destiny was to be a U.S. Senator.
It is similar to someone trying to walk on to Bear Bryant’s or Nick Saban’s football team and Bryant or Saban grants them permission to get a uniform if only for a day and try out. That bold soul who had to be hit by John Hannah like a tackling dummy can truthfully say to their grandson, “I played football at Alabama for Bear Bryant.”
Actually, Alabama’s Sixth Congressional Jefferson/Shelby U.S. Representative, Gary Palmer, was elected to Congress by his doing the above thing while in college at Alabama. Some people suspect that his saying he played for Bear Bryant helped propel him to victory when he was elected a few years ago.
Well, let’s give them just due and list them for you. I will list them in order of how I would handicap the field as the race for the Republican nomination begins.
The two frontrunners are Roy Moore, followed by Luther Strange. Congressman Mo Brooks is within striking distance of Big Luther. State Senator Trip Pittman and Dr. Randy Brinson could be players if they come up with $5 million to spend on the race. Right now, they are unknown to more than 95 percent of the electorate. If Mo Brooks can raise and spend $3 million, or if Brinson or Pittman can pony up $5 million, one of these three could probably knock Luther out of the run-off. Roy Moore is in the run-off – he leads the crowded field.
These six brave souls are in for the fun of it. Hopefully, their next-door neighbor or grandmother will vote for them, James Paul Baretta, Joseph Breault, Dom Gentile, Karen Jackson, Mary Maxwell and Bryan Peeples.
Enjoy the race. I will keep you posted. Next week I will analyze and handicap the race in-depth.
See you next week.
May 17, 2017
The race for our open U.S. Senate seat will be the marquee political event for the remainder of this year. It will be a great show. However, we have a sensational and pivotal 2018 governor’s race evolving simultaneously. This much-anticipated gubernatorial derby will be affected by the preliminary Senate horse race.
The political landscape has changed dramatically with the decisive move by new Governor Kay Ivey to call for the election of Jeff Sessions’ successor to the Senate this year.
Unlike in olden days where running a preliminary statewide race was a stepping-stone to getting elected four years later, in recent years losing statewide is not good – especially if that loss has occurred within less than six months. Therefore, three or more thoroughbreds are removed from the governor’s race. One will be in the Senate and the other two will be exiled to Buck’s Pocket and will not be players in the governor’s race. You can remove Roy Moore, Luther Strange, and any unknown wealthy person, who can and will spend five to ten million dollars of their own money. This unknown rich man will either be Senator or gone from the scene.
Roy Moore’s removal from the governor’s race is the most significant change to the gubernatorial track. His evangelical base, which probably accounts for 20-30 percent of a GOP primary vote, will be splintered among the field.
As I peruse the horses grazing in the pasture, let’s take a look at them because the race begins in less than a month, with fundraising for the June 2018 primaries beginning on June 6. Before I mention some horses who look to be frontrunners, let me say that most of these folks ain’t ponies.
Kay Ivey is 72. She would have probably gone out to pasture had she not become governor. With 18 months as governor she begins to look very gubernatorial. If she decides to run, she will be running as the incumbent and will be a viable horse, if not the front-runner.
Huntsville Mayor, Tommy Battle, 61, is going to be a player in this race. He has done an exemplary job as mayor of Alabama’s most important and successful city. Folks, if we did not have Huntsville, we would be last in everything. Battle is popular in his neck of the woods and will come out of the Tennessee Valley with a good many votes.
The “Yella Fella,” Jimmy Rane, 70, may make the race for governor. He is a successful businessman worth $600 million, according to Forbes Magazine. His business success has not gone to his head. He is and would come across as a “good ole guy.”
Jack Hawkins, the 72-year-old Chancellor of the Troy University System, would be the best-qualified person to be governor. If you put his resume into a merit system roster, the computer would print out his name. He would also be an attractive candidate. Besides building and presiding over a university system for 30 years, he is tall, handsome, and very articulate and exudes honesty and integrity. He would also be the only Marine in the race.
David Carrington, 69, is a Jefferson County Commissioner and successful businessman. He could garner significant support from the Birmingham business community. He also should have some name identification from being seen on Birmingham television for six years.
John McMillan, 75, is one of the best-liked and successful statewide officeholders in Alabama. He has had a stellar eight-year reign as Agriculture Commissioner. John is a native of Baldwin County, which is one of Alabama’s fastest growing and largest Republican counties. If there is a large field, a strong vote in his home county could catapult him into a runoff.
What about the other statewide officeholders? Twinkle Cavanaugh and John Merrill are younger than the aforementioned horses. At 50, they could sit out this race and come back either four or eight years later. Most observers expect Twinkle to run for Lt. Governor. She would be a favorite in that race. John Merrill probably stays another term as Secretary of State, which is prudent. If he and Twinkle bide their time, they would be the frontrunners for governor next time around.
Two older horses in secondary statewide office are question marks. Young Boozer, 68, is term limited from running again for Treasurer. He is mum on his plans. State Auditor Jim Ziegler, 68, has garnered a lot of press the last few years from that benign office. Folks would be wise to not underestimate him. However, his best race would be for Attorney General. He would enter as the favorite in that race.
See you next week.
May 10, 2017
Most times political columns are critical or derogatory of politicians. However, today I would like to share some positive observations from the first few months of this year.
Sometimes I enjoy striding down the halls of our old capitol reminiscing about my younger days when I would walk those halls as a page boy and then during my 30’s and 40’s as a member of the legislature. In bygone days you would never see a constitutional officer in their offices working on Fridays, not even the governor. A few months ago I walked down the halls at about 3:30 on a Friday afternoon and popped into Secretary of State John Merrill’s office and to my amazement Secretary Merrill was in his office working.
After visiting with him a while, I walked across the hall to the State Treasurer’s office and lo and behold there was Young Boozer working away. We chatted a while, Young’s daddy was a good friend of mine. His name was also Young Boozer. He was a very successful businessman. He had been a star football player at Alabama during the 1920’s with Bear Bryant. He intercepted a pass that won the Rose Bowl against Stanford, which by the way is this Young’s alma mater.
Well about three weeks later I was attending a ceremony in the old historic House chamber, which was also on a Friday afternoon. I repeated my steps from the previous Friday and again Merrill and Boozer were in their offices working. In essence not only are John Merrill and Young Boozer uniquely qualified for their jobs, these two gentlemen have an honest to goodness work ethic for the people of Alabama.
Our Senior Senator Richard Shelby has been our U.S. Senator since 1986. During those 30 years he has kept a campaign promise made during that 1986 campaign. He has come home and visited all 67 counties each and every year.
As he begins his 6th six-year term he finds himself in a pinnacle of power never before matched in Alabama political history. He is without question one of the five most powerful men in the United States Senate, which makes him one of the nation’s most important leaders. Senator Shelby chairs the omnipotent Senate Rules Committee. Within the next two years he will set the record for Senate longevity by any Alabama Senator in history. He will exceed John Sparkman’s record of over 32 years in the Senate and he will also become Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee.
Most U.S. Senators in his position would enjoy the trappings of power and adulation in Washington. Not Shelby. At 81 years old he spent the months of February and March quietly traveling the state visiting with Alabama businesses discussing how he could use his seniority to enhance their opportunities and growth.
One Wednesday night in late February I joined my old friend Shelby for dinner in downtown Enterprise. He had spent the past two days visiting with military related industries throughout the Wiregrass around Ft. Rucker. As we reminisced about past times in Alabama politics I marveled at how sharp Shelby is for 81. He looks and moves more like someone 61. We are fortunate to have Shelby.
State Senator Gerald Dial has been in the Alabama Senate for 30 years. He has adamantly said he is not running for reelection next year. He is using his last term in the Senate to be a leader and workhorse. He seems to be in charge of the Senate. He is involved with every major issue and is chairing the Reapportionment Committee, which has to have a resolution by the end of the Session. He seems more like the Governor than a powerful State Senator.
State Senator Cam Ward has taken the bull by the horns with the prison overcrowding bond issue. He has been the architect, developer, chief cook and bottle washer of this premier and critical issue. He has filled a void left by the governor’s office.
Representative Steve Clouse has become the budget guru and mainstay of the beleaguered General Fund. As Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee he has worked adroitly and prudently to keep the ship of state afloat. If it were not for Clouse’s diligence and stewardship, the state would be floating aimlessly into the Gulf of Mexico.
See you next week.