May 17, 2017
The race for our open U.S. Senate seat will be the marquee political event for the remainder of this year. It will be a great show. However, we have a sensational and pivotal 2018 governor’s race evolving simultaneously. This much-anticipated gubernatorial derby will be affected by the preliminary Senate horse race.
The political landscape has changed dramatically with the decisive move by new Governor Kay Ivey to call for the election of Jeff Sessions’ successor to the Senate this year.
Unlike in olden days where running a preliminary statewide race was a stepping-stone to getting elected four years later, in recent years losing statewide is not good – especially if that loss has occurred within less than six months. Therefore, three or more thoroughbreds are removed from the governor’s race. One will be in the Senate and the other two will be exiled to Buck’s Pocket and will not be players in the governor’s race. You can remove Roy Moore, Luther Strange, and any unknown wealthy person, who can and will spend five to ten million dollars of their own money. This unknown rich man will either be Senator or gone from the scene.
Roy Moore’s removal from the governor’s race is the most significant change to the gubernatorial track. His evangelical base, which probably accounts for 20-30 percent of a GOP primary vote, will be splintered among the field.
As I peruse the horses grazing in the pasture, let’s take a look at them because the race begins in less than a month, with fundraising for the June 2018 primaries beginning on June 6. Before I mention some horses who look to be frontrunners, let me say that most of these folks ain’t ponies.
Kay Ivey is 72. She would have probably gone out to pasture had she not become governor. With 18 months as governor she begins to look very gubernatorial. If she decides to run, she will be running as the incumbent and will be a viable horse, if not the front-runner.
Huntsville Mayor, Tommy Battle, 61, is going to be a player in this race. He has done an exemplary job as mayor of Alabama’s most important and successful city. Folks, if we did not have Huntsville, we would be last in everything. Battle is popular in his neck of the woods and will come out of the Tennessee Valley with a good many votes.
The “Yella Fella,” Jimmy Rane, 70, may make the race for governor. He is a successful businessman worth $600 million, according to Forbes Magazine. His business success has not gone to his head. He is and would come across as a “good ole guy.”
Jack Hawkins, the 72-year-old Chancellor of the Troy University System, would be the best-qualified person to be governor. If you put his resume into a merit system roster, the computer would print out his name. He would also be an attractive candidate. Besides building and presiding over a university system for 30 years, he is tall, handsome, and very articulate and exudes honesty and integrity. He would also be the only Marine in the race.
David Carrington, 69, is a Jefferson County Commissioner and successful businessman. He could garner significant support from the Birmingham business community. He also should have some name identification from being seen on Birmingham television for six years.
John McMillan, 75, is one of the best-liked and successful statewide officeholders in Alabama. He has had a stellar eight-year reign as Agriculture Commissioner. John is a native of Baldwin County, which is one of Alabama’s fastest growing and largest Republican counties. If there is a large field, a strong vote in his home county could catapult him into a runoff.
What about the other statewide officeholders? Twinkle Cavanaugh and John Merrill are younger than the aforementioned horses. At 50, they could sit out this race and come back either four or eight years later. Most observers expect Twinkle to run for Lt. Governor. She would be a favorite in that race. John Merrill probably stays another term as Secretary of State, which is prudent. If he and Twinkle bide their time, they would be the frontrunners for governor next time around.
Two older horses in secondary statewide office are question marks. Young Boozer, 68, is term limited from running again for Treasurer. He is mum on his plans. State Auditor Jim Ziegler, 68, has garnered a lot of press the last few years from that benign office. Folks would be wise to not underestimate him. However, his best race would be for Attorney General. He would enter as the favorite in that race.
See you next week.
May 10, 2017
Most times political columns are critical or derogatory of politicians. However, today I would like to share some positive observations from the first few months of this year.
Sometimes I enjoy striding down the halls of our old capitol reminiscing about my younger days when I would walk those halls as a page boy and then during my 30’s and 40’s as a member of the legislature. In bygone days you would never see a constitutional officer in their offices working on Fridays, not even the governor. A few months ago I walked down the halls at about 3:30 on a Friday afternoon and popped into Secretary of State John Merrill’s office and to my amazement Secretary Merrill was in his office working.
After visiting with him a while, I walked across the hall to the State Treasurer’s office and lo and behold there was Young Boozer working away. We chatted a while, Young’s daddy was a good friend of mine. His name was also Young Boozer. He was a very successful businessman. He had been a star football player at Alabama during the 1920’s with Bear Bryant. He intercepted a pass that won the Rose Bowl against Stanford, which by the way is this Young’s alma mater.
Well about three weeks later I was attending a ceremony in the old historic House chamber, which was also on a Friday afternoon. I repeated my steps from the previous Friday and again Merrill and Boozer were in their offices working. In essence not only are John Merrill and Young Boozer uniquely qualified for their jobs, these two gentlemen have an honest to goodness work ethic for the people of Alabama.
Our Senior Senator Richard Shelby has been our U.S. Senator since 1986. During those 30 years he has kept a campaign promise made during that 1986 campaign. He has come home and visited all 67 counties each and every year.
As he begins his 6th six-year term he finds himself in a pinnacle of power never before matched in Alabama political history. He is without question one of the five most powerful men in the United States Senate, which makes him one of the nation’s most important leaders. Senator Shelby chairs the omnipotent Senate Rules Committee. Within the next two years he will set the record for Senate longevity by any Alabama Senator in history. He will exceed John Sparkman’s record of over 32 years in the Senate and he will also become Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee.
Most U.S. Senators in his position would enjoy the trappings of power and adulation in Washington. Not Shelby. At 81 years old he spent the months of February and March quietly traveling the state visiting with Alabama businesses discussing how he could use his seniority to enhance their opportunities and growth.
One Wednesday night in late February I joined my old friend Shelby for dinner in downtown Enterprise. He had spent the past two days visiting with military related industries throughout the Wiregrass around Ft. Rucker. As we reminisced about past times in Alabama politics I marveled at how sharp Shelby is for 81. He looks and moves more like someone 61. We are fortunate to have Shelby.
State Senator Gerald Dial has been in the Alabama Senate for 30 years. He has adamantly said he is not running for reelection next year. He is using his last term in the Senate to be a leader and workhorse. He seems to be in charge of the Senate. He is involved with every major issue and is chairing the Reapportionment Committee, which has to have a resolution by the end of the Session. He seems more like the Governor than a powerful State Senator.
State Senator Cam Ward has taken the bull by the horns with the prison overcrowding bond issue. He has been the architect, developer, chief cook and bottle washer of this premier and critical issue. He has filled a void left by the governor’s office.
Representative Steve Clouse has become the budget guru and mainstay of the beleaguered General Fund. As Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee he has worked adroitly and prudently to keep the ship of state afloat. If it were not for Clouse’s diligence and stewardship, the state would be floating aimlessly into the Gulf of Mexico.
See you next week.
May 03, 2017
Well, folks, let’s put the final coup de grace to the Robert Bentley six year Governor’s reign and move on. Ole Bentley was quite a story his last two years. He had become the ringleader of a circus and an infamous national cartoon character. The salacious and lurid details of his affair with Mrs. Rebekah Mason were a never ending, titillating saga. The story, along with his picture, could aptly be a plot for a tabloid or a Soap Opera. I will actually be surprised if it does not make it to television or even the movies.
Unfortunately, this story will be his legacy as governor. He has no public policy initiatives to tout for posterity. He will be known as the “Luv Gov.”
Our last two governors may not have gone to jail like previous ones, but they garnered terrific nicknames for their exploits over their last year in office.
Bob Riley spent his last year doing the bidding of the Indian Gambling syndicate and his cowboy and Indian escapades closing down all the non-Indian casinos earned him the nickname of “Bingo Bob.”
Ole Bentley, who appeared to be the least likely person to play the part, became a sex crazed philanderer. His and Rebekah’s sordid romance tapes sounded like the x-rated version of Barney Fife sweet talking Thelma Lou. Even the national media dubbed him the “Luv Gov”.
Bentley never really showed any genuine remorse or contrition. Even when he read his prepared resignation speech, it did not seem heartfelt or sincere. They were just words wrapped in religion. He never seemed to apologize from the heart. He still seemed a little bit haughty.
Having taught Sunday school for many years, one would have thought Bentley had taught some from the book of Proverbs. One of Solomon’s greatest proverbs says, “Pride goeth before a fall.”
Early in the day of Bentley’s resignation, I was walking around the Capitol with rumors swirling that Bentley’s demise was imminent at any time. I was wishing the best for ole Bentley. I thought about ole Big Jim Folsom standing on the Capitol steps when the press would pound on him and ask him to resign. He would say to them, “Y’all ain’t gonna get old Big Jim to quit. When I was a boy, growing up in Coffee County my old pappy would make me get out of bed before daylight and go work in the fields chopping cotton and plowing behind a mule. I’d see a rain cloud come up and start praying for rain so I could quit for a while. My pappy would say boy it may cloud up but it ain’t gonna rain on Big Jim.”
Well, bless his heart, it did rain on Bentley. He’s gone. Kay Ivey will serve out the remaining 19 months of his term. She may decide to run for a full term of her own as governor. As the incumbent governor, she would be a viable candidate.
There is an ever-growing list of potential and probable horses that are gearing up for the 2018 gubernatorial derby. The list of viable candidates is at about a dozen.
However, let me tell you again, like I have been telling you for years, Alabamians like to vote for a dark horse for governor – one who has not been around the political track. Let me give you the names of two very rich businessmen who could pull off a Fob James 1978 like coup.
Jimmy Rane, known as “Yella Fella” from his ads of riding a horse and wearing a big yellow hat advertising his yellow lumber, started out and built Great Southern Wood out of Abbeville where he was born and raised and still calls home. Forbes magazine has his net worth at $600 million.
Johnny Johns became CEO of Birmingham based Protective Life at a young age. He built the company started by Colonel Rushton into one of the largest life insurance companies in the world. When an international corporation bought Protective several years ago, Johnny walked away with $300 million. He is known throughout Birmingham as one of the most civic minded people in the Magic City.
Either one of these two distinguished gentlemen could easily buy the governor’s office with their pocket change and they may be interested.
See you next week.
April 26, 2017
The decisive move by newly minted Governor, Kay Ivey, to declare a Special Election for the Jeff Sessions’ Senate Seat this year rather than next year changes the entire complexion of who will sit in that coveted seat. It also redefines the landscape of an ever changing and pivotal Alabama political scene.
This next year will be an adventure as we elect a Senator and concurrently the 2018 Governor’s Race will begin its evolution. We have already seen the downfall of a sitting governor this year and by September 26, we will see the election of a new junior U.S. Senator. There is an assumption that only a Republican can win statewide office in Alabama and winning the GOP primary is tantamount to election.
The decision by Governor Ivey was the right decision. Most folks would assume that “forthwith” means this year rather than next year. It was also a wise political move by Ms. Ivey if she wants to run for a full term.
Ivey’s calling for the Special Election for Sessions’ seat immediately, could be the death knell for Luther Strange. By December, he may go from being the newest and tallest member of the U.S. Senate to the shortest serving senator in Alabama history. His defeat could be very inglorious and humiliating.
With the election being this year, it will be the only show in town. It will be a spectacle. Every politician who is in any office can run without risking his or her current posts. In other words, everyone has a free shot. Therefore, it will be a free-for-all.
Everyone will run against poor Big Luther and the Bentley taint. They will use their campaign resources to give you the unmitigated details of how Luther got put in that seat by ole Bentley. You will be told so many times that Bentley and Luther got together in a backroom with Rebekah and brokered a deal to sell Luther the Senate seat in return for Luther not prosecuting Bentley and Rebekah that you will be tired of it. Luther will be as tarnished and feathered as ole Bentley.
In about two weeks, when the Washington PAC’s see the polling that reveals Luther is in trouble, his campaign resources will be less than he expected and he may not be able to defend against the onslaught of negative ads.
The question becomes, who will be the early frontrunners? Roy Moore enters as the favorite. His evangelical base becomes crystallized in a large field. It will probably reserve him a place in the September 26 run-off. Who will be the other candidate in the runoff? It may very well not be Luther Strange.
The U.S. Senate is a select club. A cursory look around the chamber reveals very wealthy people or celebrities. Senate seats are bought by wealthy individuals in a good many cases. We have some people in Alabama who could very easily buy the Senate seat.
The short period of time that exists to raise money for an August 15 election even further enhances the advantage for someone who can self finance and write a big check. The name on most lists is the “Yella Fella,” Jimmy Rane. He would sell. He is a natural salesman.
Folks close to Yella Fella get the feeling that he does not want to go to Washington at this time in his life. However, he is adamant and determined that Luther Strange will not remain in the seat. Therefore, he may bankroll another candidate through a super PAC.
Rumor has it that he will get behind Del Marsh. Marsh has his own money also. However, he needs more money because he is totally unknown to Alabama voters.
I will keep you posted on the developments. I do not know how many of these folks will join the fray but this is how I will handicap the horses at this time.
Jimmy Rane and Roy Moore are one and two. Other possibilities are Congressman Robert Aderholt, Congressman Bradley Byrne, Luther Strange, Secretary of State John Merrill, Congressman Mo Brooks, State Auditor Jim Ziegler, State Senator Del Marsh, Trump Trumpeter Perry Hooper, Jr, State Senator Slade Blackwell, State Senator Trip Pittman, ADECA Director Jim Byard, State Senator Arthur Orr, and State Representative Ed Henry.
It will be a great show.
See you next week.
April 19, 2017
We in the Deep South have a unique history of political theatrics. The only northern states that rival our colorfulness are New Jersey and Illinois. In those two states you are expected to be corrupt, especially Chicago.
Our most colorful southern state has always been Louisiana. The parishes and bayous of the Pelican State gave us Huey Long and other characters. No other states can hold a candle to Louisiana’s brazen corruption. They not only expect their politicians to steal and cavort, they frown on them if they do not. The environment of Louisiana politics is bred towards corruption and debauchery. They not only gave us the glamour of the King Fish, Huey Long, they are proud of their infamous reputation.
Well folks if you look at us here in the good old Heart of Dixie over the past few years we are probably giving Louisiana a run for its money. A cursory look at the record reveals that our Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Hubbard, was caught and convicted of taking bribes for sponsoring and passing legislation. Our 74-year-old doctor Governor Robert Bentley fell in love with his 44-year-old number one advisor, lost all his wits, and has resigned from office in disgrace. He pled guilty to a misdemeanor charge and agreed never to run for office again. The House of Representatives was poised to impeach him had he not resigned.
Ole Bentley had become an irrelevant clown and fodder for late night talk shows. The State is better off with Lt. Governor, Kay Ivey, serving out the remaining 20 months of Bentley’s term.
Bentley, in a charade promulgated by his desire to not be indicted for his shenanigans, gave the U.S. Senate Seat vacated by Jeff Sessions to the sitting Attorney General Luther Strange to avoid prosecution. Therefore, our new junior U.S. Senator is in Washington with the taint of Bentley’s scandal hovering over his head with the appearance that he is there due to audacious collusion.
We have an even richer novel that has transpired in Jefferson County, our most populous and supposedly urbane county. It made national news a year ago when the Mayor and President of the City Council got into a fistfight in the Birmingham City Hall. However, a new development is even more bizarre. During the fall elections, Democrats won all of the Jefferson County judgeships. Along with the judgeships, Jefferson County voters elected a Democratic District Attorney. Democrat Charles Henderson beat incumbent Republican Brandon Falls by over 10,000 votes. Get this folks, the sitting DA trumps up a perjury charge against the new DA a few days before he was to take office. Falls convened a grand jury on January 12 and returned an indictment the next day on January 13. Henderson was to take office the following Monday.
As anybody knows, a prosecutor can indict a potato for anything at any time. This scenario proves that point. The loser, Falls, got the winner, Henderson, indicted for perjury.
This is so bizarre and corrupt a situation that it makes the aforementioned stories pale in comparison. It makes Jefferson County and Alabama look like a third world banana republic. There are rampant rumors that the State’s top watchdog, Prosecutor Matt Hart, is camped out in Jefferson County and massive indictments are on the way. It has been over 70 years since Louisiana had a similar scenario. Nobody has been as brash in between.
The Louisiana King Fish Huey Long was assassinated on the steps of the capitol in Baton Rouge. Huey Long’s brother, Earl Long, followed his famous older brother as governor. Earl was one colorful character. His opponents decided to seize power from Earl. They took control of the state police and had Earl arrested and put in the state insane asylum. One of the best political movies ever is entitled “Blaze” starring Paul Newman and it illustrates this story of Louisiana political lore. I recommend it for entertainment.
These past two years in Alabama politics would make for a good movie. This latest Jefferson County fiasco would have to be a part of the plot. Look out Louisiana; we’ve got some good theater in the Heart of Dixie.
See you next week.
April 12, 2017
Well our good ole Dr. Governor, Robert Bentley, is headed to the same fate as Guy Hunt and Don Siegelman. Folks, we are building a legacy that may put us in a league with good old Louisiana when it comes to corruption and debauchery.
Bentley’s story is sad. I still really believe he is a good guy at heart. He had a tremendous legacy etched for his life if only he hadn’t run for governor. He had established one of if not the largest and premier Dermatology practices in the state in Tuscaloosa. He had been brought up in modest means in rural Shelby County. He was a brilliant student in High School, in undergraduate school at the University of Alabama, and then on to medical school at UAB. He met his wife, Dianne, while in medical school. He was truly a Horatio Alger story. If only he had retired and gone to the beach.
Many of us had pointed to April 5 as a day of reckoning for the governor. His reputation had been dreadfully tarnished by his affair. Ole Bentley just doesn’t look the part of a philandering playboy. His plain, grandfatherly look was the reason folks liked him. His simple country look and gait gave the appearance of a trusted family man and Baptist deacon. It was his calling card so to speak. Folks felt betrayed by their old country doctor.
Poor ole Bentley wore a white hat and rode a white horse and there’s an old saying that if you ride a white horse you better not get mud on it.
The old guy totally fell in love like a little schoolboy. He allowed Mrs. Mason to take control of his life and the reigns of the governor’s office. She has essentially been the governor. She played the old fool like a fiddle. There’s no fool like an old fool.
Late Wednesday night after the Ethics Commission opinion came down; I did an interview with a national news network. They had not heard of nor did they know the lurid details of our Dr. Governor’s saga. When I shared it with them and they heard the story of a 74-year-old simple man falling in love with a 44-year-old married woman who gave her husband a vague position making $90,000 a year and that she cajoled and coerced our poor ole governor into transgressing the Ethics Laws to sustain and perpetuate their adulterous relationship, they thought this was as colorful as a soap opera. It is definitely fodder for another book.
My last book, “Goats and Governors,” highlights the exploits of ole “Big” Jim Folsom. Bentley may make for a new book.
The April 5 Ethics Commission ruling that found that there was a reasonable cause that the governor violated the Ethics Law is the coupe de gras to the Bentley/Mason regime.
This Ethics panel is stellar and well versed in the law. You have two of the four voting members who are distinguished retired Circuit Judges, Charles Price and Jerry Fielding. Another prominent attorney, Butch Ellis, appropriately recused himself because he and Bentley are related by marriage. The vote indicted the governor on four counts with overwhelming votes. They concluded that the governor had broken the law. By the way, Bentley appointed three out of four of the members of the Ethics Panel.
Their recommendation that Bentley be prosecuted puts the wolves at Bentley’s door. He can’t overcome this blow.
The best thing for Bentley to do is to make a deal with the prosecution. It would be best for Bentley and the people of Alabama if the prosecutors would simply allow Bentley to resign and avoid a costly trial and removal from office. Alabama doesn’t need any more of this mess. Mrs. Mason should show some semblance of decency and allow ole Bentley to leave office with some dignity.
Ole Bentley is nothing more than a clown. Nobody in Alabama takes him seriously and this latest chapter has made him a National cartoon character.
He really should parlay this story into a Soap Opera or even a movie.
See you next week.
April 05, 2017
Lots of folks are still mad about our lame duck governor Robert Bentley naming Attorney General Luther Strange to Jeff Sessions Senate seat.
If the sitting attorney general of a state openly states that he is investigating the governor for misfeasance and then that governor appoints that attorney general to the senate seat it looks funny. It gives new meaning to the word collusion.
This brazen move has incensed legislators who have heard from their constituents back home. It has especially upset members of the House Judiciary Committee. They were asked to cease the impeachment proceedings last year in deference to Strange’s request to lead an investigation of the governor’s shenanigans. Needless to say they have reinstated their impeachment proceedings against old Bentley with renewed vigor.
Several legislators have taken issue with the governor’s calling for the senate seat election in 2018, rather than immediately. The constitution says the election should be held forthwith. That is open to interpretation. The more prudent path is 2018, since there are elections anyway. That is traditionally the way it has been done in the state in the past. However, most seats in bygone days were vacated by the death of one of our senators and the governor usually appointed the deceased senator’s widow for the remaining year or so on the term. She was considered a caretaker to the seat. There has been so much grief and acrimony to Strange’s appointment that he may be a caretaker.
I have never before seen a governor treated with such disdain and irreverence by a legislature as ole Bentley. They probably will not technically impeach the ole fellow. He only has about 20 months left in his tenure and he is essentially impeached from power anyway. Most of them look at him as a buffoon or clown. He has about as much relevance in the legislative process as one of the former goats that used to graze on Goat Hill.
The ultimate fallout from Bentley’s actions and unpopularity may accrue to Luther Strange in his election race in 14 months. Winning the GOP primary in this Senate race is tantamount to election in Alabama. Therefore, the race is in June of next year.
Big Luther stands a good 6’9”. His height is daunting. He was actually a college basketball player at Tulane. Luther spent the first 20 years of his career as a corporate lobbyist in Washington. Seeing the power and deference of being a U.S. Senator made an impression. He came home to run for a secondary constitutional office and get ready to run for a Senate seat vacated by either of his friends, Richard Shelby or Jeff Sessions. He chose the right stepping stone job, Attorney General.
Big Luther is basically a shy and reserved fellow. He is not a natural politician. He was on the right course when he initially said that he would not seek nor accept Bentley’s appointment and that he was running for the post independent of the discredited governor’s appointment. He changed his mind and met with Bentley and took the appointment.
His trusted advisors convinced him that folks have short memories and that over the next year as a sitting U.S. Senator he can raise so much Washington campaign cash that he can outspend his opposition to such an extent that it will wash away the taint of the Bentley appointment. He may be right. That may be a good bet.
However, folks may be smarter and more cognizant of bold brazen backroom deals than some think. Just ask Bill Baxley how that worked out in 1986 when some Democratic Party leaders got behind closed doors and selected Baxley to be the Democratic nominee over Charlie Graddick who got the most votes. The people were so incensed they elected an unknown Republican named Guy Hunt as Governor.
However, there is the pragmatic side of the equation. During that 1986 debacle Bill Baxley, who was lieutenant governor, had become close with the King of Alabama politics, Gov. George Wallace. Wallace was in his last term as governor and Baxley had sensed a backlash might occur with such an audacious brazen move by his Democratic Party buddies, so he went to Wallace for his advice. Ole Wallace took a puff on his cigar and looked at Baxley wryly and said, “Bill you know what they call a governor who gets to be governor by a backroom deal?” Baxley asked “What?” Wallace said, “They call him Governor.”
See you next week.
March 29, 2017
Last week we handicapped some of the potential horses in the upcoming 2018 Governor’s Race. We mentioned Judge Roy Moore, PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh, Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan, Secretary of State John Merrill, State Treasurer Young Boozer, State Senator Del Marsh and Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle. Some others that may be considering pursuing the brass ring of Alabama politics are Lt. Governor Kay Ivey, Supreme Court Justice Jim Main, Jefferson County Commission President David Carrington, Trump’s Trumpeter in the State Perry Hooper, Jr., Huntsville State Representative Jim Patterson and ADECA Director and former Prattville Mayor Jim Byard. You can also add former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville to the mix of possible gubernatorial candidates.
All of these aforementioned horses would run as Republicans in the 2018 Gubernatorial Derby. It is assumed that only a Republican can win statewide office in Alabama and that next year’s June 2018 GOP primary is tantamount to election. Therefore, it is only a 15 month race to election for governor.
The late Lucy Baxley was the last Democrat to hold statewide office in Alabama. She lost reelection to the PSC in 2012. It has been almost two decades since a Democrat has captured the Governor’s office. Donald Trump carried Alabama with almost 63 percent of the vote. It is thought by most political prognosticators that a Democratic candidate can at best get 40% of the vote in the Heart of Dixie. However, there are several brave souls who are diehard Democrats and may be bold enough to test that theory.
One of these emboldened is Parker Griffith, who ran as the Democratic nominee against Robert Bentley four years ago in 2014 and received 36% of the vote. Griffith is a personable, former oncologist, State Senator, and Congressman from Huntsville. He seems dedicated to making the plunge.
The most mentioned Democratic candidate is former Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb. She was elected to the State Supreme Court in 2012, which was the last time a Democrat won statewide in Alabama. She is seriously considering the race for governor. She could be handicapped by the fact that she quit in the middle of her term on the Court and a Republican was appointed by the Governor.
State Representative Craig Ford who has served as House Minority Leader is considering a run for governor. Like Griffith, Ford is likeable. He is one of the few remaining white Democrats left in the Alabama House of Representatives. In fact, if Ford vacated his seat to run for Governor a Republican would probably take it.
The wildcard in a potential Democratic field might be the popular young Mayor of Tuscaloosa, Walt Maddox. He considers himself a Democrat. Maddox is well thought of in the Druid City, which is a more populous and vote rich area of the state than most folks realize. If he got a strong support from Tuscaloosa coupled with the ADC and New South endorsements, it could propel him to the Democratic nomination. He would bring to the dance a sterling record of achievement as Mayor of Tuscaloosa. However, if he has to go through a bruising primary he may come to the prom beat up and broke. Not to mention that the Prom King/Queen is highly favored to be a Republican. He would be hard-pressed to raise campaign money in the fall campaign. Most of the bets would be placed on the Republican.
This brings us to another chapter in the governor’s race. The folks who wrote our 1901 Constitution intended for the power in state government to be rested in the hands of the legislature. During the Wallace years, George Wallace had immense power over the legislature. This usurpation of power has incrementally declined over the years. It has culminated with a decimation of gubernatorial power.
The last two governors, Bob Riley and Robert Bentley, have been rendered irrelevant by the legislature. Special interests have taken note of this transfer of power and their money has followed. Campaign money that use to go to the governor’s race now flows to legislative races. It is not unusual to see House seats cost $300,000 and State Senate races rise to $1 million.
It is going to be a great election year.
See you next week.
March 22, 2017
We are on the cusp of one of the best political years in modern political history in the Heart of Dixie. Prior to the 1970’s our constitution disallowed succession of office for our state constitutional offices. In other words, you could not run for two consecutive four-year terms. That is why George Wallace ran his wife in his place in 1966. George and Lurleen campaigned side-by-side. George would wink at the crowds still drawn to courthouse squares by a country band and say, “I’m going to be her number one advisor.” By the way, she won in a landslide. She beat eight male opponents without a runoff, including two former governors, an agriculture commissioner, the sitting state attorney general and two powerful state senators.
However, you could serve a four-year term, wait out four years, and run for a second term. Only two men had done that in Alabama history. Prior to the constitutional change in the 1970’s Bibb Graves of Montgomery had done it early in the century and Big Jim Folsom did it in 1946 and again in 1954.
Now that governors can succeed themselves, it has become common practice for governors to serve eight years rather than four. Thus, the 2018 governor’s race will be a once in an eight year opportunity. Folks, we are in for one heck of a year and the bell rings on June 6. Therefore, the horses will begin lining up over the next few months. It will be a great cavalcade of characters.
The early favorite horse in the 2018 Derby is Roy Moore. The Chief Justice’s expulsion from the bench by the Judicial Inquiry Commission has propelled him to stratospheric levels in polling. Leading a horserace is a good analogy for Moore since he traditionally rides his horse to vote at his polling place in Gallant in rural Etowah County.
Some of you may question Moore’s popularity, but the numbers are there in every poll. The JIC has made him a martyr. Alabama is a very religious state and being thrown out of office by an unaccountable commission for being against homosexual marriages is a pretty good issue to run on in the Bible Belt.
Roy Moore is the wild card in the early 2018 jockeying. Most folks have him in the governor’s race. However, he has two other options. Attorney general or the U.S. Senate seat. He would probably win either of these posts. The governor’s office is another question. Historically, people do not think of him as governor. He lost miserably both times he ran, whereas he wins handily for a state judgeship. His best race is for attorney general or U.S. Senate.
Twinkle Andress Cavannaugh has a free shot in 2018. She was just reelected to a four-year term as Public Service Commission President. She is already out running for governor and sometimes the early bird gets the worm.
State Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan is term limited in that job that he has done well for eight years. He is well liked by everyone who knows him and is planning to run for governor.
Young Boozer has also served his two-term eight-year limit as State Treasurer. He is a wild card and gives no hints as to what his future political plans are for 2018. Young is not a natural politician. He is an erudite Stanford educated successful banker who was perfectly suited for the State Treasurer’s post and he has done an excellent job.
Secretary of State John Merrill is probably the best retail politician in the state at this time. Lots of people have encouraged him to run. However, he is one of the few constitutional officeholders who can run for reelection in 2018. He will probably bide his time and run for reelection.
State Senate President Pro Tem Del Marsh of Anniston is itching to pull the trigger on the governor’s race, but being a powerful state senator does not translate into statewide name identification. However, Marsh is said to be wealthy. If he were to spend $3 to $5 million of his own money, he could be a player.
The very popular mayor of Huntsville, Tommy Battle, is seriously considering the race. If he joins the fray, he could be a player. He would come out of the Tennessee Valley with a strong start. There are a lot of votes in North Alabama.
We are in for a heck of a campaign year. I will keep you posted.
See you next week.
March 15, 2017
My tradition for over two decades has been to give my children money for Christmas. Under this system, there is no returning of items. They get what they want or need. There is no way that I would know what style of clothing, color or size they like. It works well.
The most illuminating thing that occurred to me this year is that both of my daughters and my granddaughter bought all of their Christmas gifts from me online. Without question, our country and state have changed dramatically technologically in my lifetime. Therefore, Alabama and other states have to change the way that sales tax is collected. States have to find a solution and the will to derive sales tax from online purchases.
The legislature has wisely set up a budget reform task force to study, evaluate and come forward with long-term solutions to problems and loopholes in the law like online sales tax. The committee is headed by two stellar legislators, Sen. Clyde Chambliss (R-Prattville) and Rep. Danny Garrett (R-Trussville). This blue ribbon panel will review and develop recommendations as to how Alabama can adjust to 21st-century budgeting.
This non-collection of sales tax on online purchases is a serious problem and it perfectly illustrates how our tax system is more designed for the 20th century than the 21st. We, like many other states, are not keeping up with the technology shifts in the world. Legislators unquestionably have to reevaluate the state’s tax structure to reflect the new online and digital economy.
Rep. Garrett has wisely acknowledged, “We used to tax about two thirds of the economy with the sales tax. Today, we tax one third of our economy.” He further observed, “We are leaning very heavily on the income tax, and our sales tax base is eroding due to online sales.”
Another issue, which will be discussed during this legislative session, is the deterioration of our transportation system in the state. This problem is not unique to Alabama. In fact, President Trump made this a hallmark issue of his campaign last year. Most Washington political observers fully expect to see a massive infrastructure package passed in a bipartisan manner early in Trump’s administration.
Alabama needs to be poised to take advantage of this bonanza. The last major federal highway initiative came in the 1950s during the administration of Ike Eisenhower. It was also passed with bipartisan support.
According to recent studies, 15% of Alabama roads and highways are in poor condition and 35% more are rated as fair, with 25% of our bridges deemed obsolete. The legislature may need to look at increasing the gas tax to take advantage of this federal windfall. More than likely, a state tax contribution will be needed to match the federal dollars. Alabama’s gas tax has not been increased since 1990.
We have Richard Shelby, but he may need some help. The new Speaker of the House, Mac McCutcheon is from the Huntsville/Madison County area. The Rocket City is Alabama’s crown jewel economically. They realize the importance that adequate progressive highways are to sustained growth and prosperity. McCutcheon spearheaded the effort to increase the revenue for roads and bridges last year. About a dozen states raised the gas tax in 2016 to keep up with inflation and growth. Our neighboring state of Florida was one of them.
Speaking of McCutcheon, he is adjusting well to his new role a Speaker. He is fair and evenhanded. His selection of Rep. Alan Boothe to be his Rules Chairman seems to be meshing well. The House leadership has changed even more dramatically since the session began. The Republican caucus has elected Rep. Nathaniel Ledbetter of Rainsville as their new Majority Leader. Ledbetter is a freshman House member and former mayor of Rainsville. Rep. Connie Rowe of Jasper will serve as Vice-Chairwoman of the Caucus. She is the first female to hold the position. Ledbetter replaces former Majority Leader Mickey Hammond of Decatur.
Sen. Cam Ward has become the good shepherd, chief cook and bottle washer of the prison construction project. He has scaled back the size and scope of the original proposal. The legislature is trying to stay ahead of the federal courts on addressing the state’s prison overcrowding problem.
See you next week.