September 27, 2017
As one of America’s most conservative states, we have a history of electing very conservative senators. Jeff Sessions proved to be one of the most archconservative members of the U.S. Senate during his 20-year tenure.
Another archconservative that served 10 years in the Senate from 1968 to 1978 was the great Jim Allen. Jim Allen had an illustrious career in Alabama politics. He was born and raised in Gadsden. He served in the Alabama House and the Alabama Senate from his native Etowah County. He was elected to his first term as Lieutenant Governor of Alabama in 1950, and to a second term in 1962. He was Lieutenant Governor during George Wallace’s first term as Governor. He was also a very successful lawyer in Gadsden.
Jim Allen is known most prominently for being the most astute parliamentarian in Alabama political history. He developed this trademark early in his career and honed it during his terms as Lieutenant Governor. Most state senate observers, say that Allen had no peer when it came to knowing its parliamentary rules.
Allen went to the U.S. Senate in 1968. Many political experts expected Allen, the incumbent Lieutenant Governor, to run for governor in 1966 when George Wallace could not succeed himself and failed to get the legislature to change the succession law. But Allen was a savvy politician who never lost a political race. He knew that Lurleen Wallace, as proxy for George, could not be beaten in 1966. He opted to lay low and take on the aging Lister Hill’s seat in 1968.
As expected, Hill announced early that he would not run for reelection in 1968. However, he did an unexpected thing and endorsed Congressman Armistead Selden to become his replacement. Selden was an eight-term congressman from the Black Belt and Hill had grown fond of him.
Another obstacle arose for Jim Allen. Wallace also backed Selden although not openly. Wallace and Allen had become friends and allies, but Wallace blamed Jim Allen for not gaveling through his succession bill in 1965.
So Allen began the race with both Lister Hill and George Wallace on the other side. However, Allen had gotten to know a lot of the Wallace organization and wound up with at least half of the Wallace crowd.
As the campaign began, there were riots in Washington. It was a time of civil unrest over the Vietnam War and the civil rights marches and landmark civil rights laws were fresh on people’s minds. Alabamians were sick of Washington.
Allen came up with the best campaign slogan of the last 60 years. He ran against “The Washington Crowd.” He had a very graphic photo of the riots and used the photo in his message of running against the Washington Crowd. Of course, the subtle subliminal message was that Allen was against the liberal Washington establishment that had forced integration and civil rights on the South.
Jim Allen became the conservative, anti-civil rights, pro-South candidate with that slogan. He tied Armistead Selden to the Washington crowd and won.
When Allen arrived in the U.S. Senate, the Dean of its Southern delegation was the venerable Richard Russell of Georgia, a master of the rules and the filibuster. He led the powerful bloc of Southern U.S. Senators. Because of their seniority, they ruled the Senate. It had taken a massive movement to steam-roll the Civil Rights legislation over this bloc.
Richard Russell, knowing of Jim Allen’s reputation as a parliamentarian, brought him under his wing and made him his protégée. He told Allen from day one that the only way that he would be a power in Washington was to master the rules of the U.S. Senate. Allen took Russell’s advice. He learned the rules so well that he was considered the most able parliamentarian in the Senate during his first term.
Allen became the stalwart leader of the conservatives during his years in Washington. His positions were very reflective of his Alabama constituency. He almost single-handedly led the charge to thwart what he considered the giving away of the Panama Canal by President Jimmy Carter.
He had been fighting this battle for several months. He also had to fight diabetes. He came home to Alabama very tired one weekend during this fight and succumbed to a massive heart attack at his Gulf Shores condominium at age 65.
Jim Allen was a great Alabamian. Hopefully, the person we elected yesterday will be another Jim Allen
See you next week.
September 20, 2017
The very interesting and entertaining Republican Primary for our open U.S. Senate seat culminates this Tuesday with the clash between two Titans. Judge Roy Moore and Big Luther Strange will be in a Titanic battle to fill the seat left vacant when Jeff Sessions became U.S. Attorney General.
We will see if Moses with his Ten Commandments and Hebrew children of rural Alabama can slay the Philistine Mountain Brook giant.
The results from the August 15 first primary were predictable. The turnout was about 18 percent, about what you would expect for a Special Election in mid-August, during 100-degree dog days of summer and one race on the ballot. Moore garnered 39 percent, Strange had 33 percent, and Mo Brooks received a respectable 18 percent.
The early polling and constant polling revealed that Roy Moore had a hard-core 30 percent of the electorate. It was and still is a solid block of voters that are going to vote for Moore come hell or high water.
Those of us that know politics knew that Moore’s 30 percent would become accentuated and would grow to 40 percent with a low voter turnout. That is exactly what happened. The final poll and the only one that counts is the count of those that show up to vote. Older people vote and Moore’s supporters are more ardent, dedicated, and older. They showed up and voted. They will again on Tuesday. Turnout is as critical as it was on August 15. Therefore, Luther Strange’s path to victory is narrow.
The Roy Moore popularity and hard-core support is a phenomenon and anomaly in this day and time in politics. It is very similar to George Wallace’s appeal in his hey day.
Although, unlike Wallace, who was a professional politician and demagogue in the classic Southern stereotypical style, Moore is a true believer. He has put his money where his mouth is. He has lost his job, not once but twice, for his stands for the Ten Commandments and against gay marriage. I doubt George Wallace would have given up his job as governor if a federal judge told him to get out of the school house door in the 1960’s.
However, Moore’s support is deeper than just an evangelical base. He is a true populist in the mold of a George Wallace or even Huey Long. This job of U.S. Senator actually fits him better in voters’ minds than governor. He could have and probably should have dug up and recycled an old Wallace slogan used by the fighting little judge from Barbour County in his presidential forays, “Send them a message.”
Moore amazingly carried 60 out of 67 counties on August 15. It was not just rural counties either. He won Mobile and Montgomery. Strange carried Imperial Jefferson and Brook’s carried his home bailiwick of Madison.
Luther Strange had all of the money. The Washington super PAC’s let it be known early that they were going to load him up and treat him as an incumbent. They were not just whistling Dixie. In the first primary, they spent over $5 million. Moore spent $400,000. Folks that is a 15 to 1 advantage. They have outspent Moore 10 to 1 in the runoff.
With the Washington money also comes the Washington gurus - the best pollsters and media experts in America. They polled Alabama Republican voters early and late and found Donald Trump’s agenda was very popular in the Heart of Dixie. They gave Luther Strange the pro-Trump script and he stuck to it perfectly. They hammered the Trump/Strange message repeatedly. They have stuck to the script in the runoff. Luther’s 33 percent vote on August 15 puts him within striking distance of Moore in the runoff.
Luther was bolstered by both the Trump endorsement and also the Alabama Farmers Federation endorsement. This conservative group’s support is vital in a statewide race.
The former State Attorney General did well as expected among upscale urbane voters in Jefferson and Shelby counties. He also did surprisingly well in some of the more populous counties of North Alabama, especially Tuscaloosa, Talladega, Cullman, DeKalb, Jackson and Walker counties. Walker County had a large turnout due to a local issue on the ballot.
The pivotal question is where do Brooks’ voters go Tuesday. My guess is it is a wash at best. Most stay home. Therefore, the only route for Big Luther to make up the difference was to go negative and they really did. We will soon see if it works. Again, turnout is the key.
See you next week.
September 13, 2017
As I mentioned last week, we will have a plethora of political contests to follow next year and the field is beginning to formulate.
The governor’s race is always the marquee event. However, the most important races will be for the 35 State Senate and 105 House of Representatives seats. These legislative races will be where most of the special interest money will gravitate.
There will be an unprecedented number of state senators not running for reelection. However, the nucleus and bulk of the State Senate leadership is planning to return. Veteran leaders Jabo Waggoner (R-Vestavia), Del Marsh (R-Anniston), Greg Reed (R-Jasper), Jimmy Holley (R-Coffee), Arthur Orr (R- Decatur), Cam Ward (R-Shelby), and Jim McClendon (R-St. Clair), will all run for reelection. Along with rising stars, Steve Livingston (R-Scottsboro), Clay Schofield (R-Marshall), Clyde Chambliss (R-Autauga), Shay Shelnut (R-Trussville), Slade Blackwell (R-Jefferson), as well as Gerald Allen (R-Tuscaloosa) and Tom Whatley (R-Auburn).
This cadre of Republican leadership returning portends that the State Senate will be where the power will be concentrated when the next quadrennium begins in Montgomery.
The same scenario will occur in the House. There will also be a good deal of turnover in the lower chamber However, the nucleus of leadership will return and will more than likely all stay in their leadership positions. The top five leaders will remain intact. Mac McCutcheon (R-Huntsville) as Speaker, Victor Gaston (R-Mobile) as ProTem, Bill Poole (R-Tuscaloosa) will continue as Chairman of the Education Ways and Means Committee and Steve Clouse (R-Ozark) will be Chairman of Ways and Means General Fund Committee. Rep. Mike Jones (R-Andalusia) will steer the Rules Committee.
One center of special interest power that will diminish significantly is the once vaunted Business Council of Alabama, unless they replace Bill Canary, their much beleaguered CEO. It has been rumored for over a year that he will be replaced.
In the past few months, the omnipotent power in Alabama politics, Alabama Power, made it perfectly clear that either Canary goes or the Company would have to reconsider its participation. The company’s last minute withdrawal from the annual BCA Governmental Affairs Conference was a clear message. But just to make sure the message was received, Alabama Power President, Mark Crosswhite, met with Canary in a gentlemanly fashion. He summoned Canary to the company’s downtown Birmingham headquarters and politely explained to the New Yorker that BCA’s failures and lack of leadership are a major concern to the company. Crosswhite then met with some key members of BCA’s board to make Alabama Power’s position clear.
Canary is telling his BCA bosses that the meeting with Crosswhite was a great success and everything was just a misunderstanding. But the only one who misunderstands, it seems, is Canary. Alabama Power was the integral factor in organizing the Business Council several decades ago. Their financial contributions to the BCA comprise over 25 percent of the group’s income.
In addition to the Power Company’s disenchantment with Canary, our senior Senator, Richard Shelby, has made it clear to BCA members that Canary is so out of favor with him that he is no longer welcome in his office and furthermore should not bother to call his office for an appointment.
Folks, what that means is that the BCA with Billy Canary on board has absolutely no power in Washington. All seven of our Congressmen and whoever our new senator is pales in power to Shelby. Shelby is more powerful that all eight put together, and believe me none of them want to offend him. He not only trumps them, he trumps Trump.
Canary is not only a pariah in Washington, he is a joke in Montgomery. Most folks thought he would be indicted with Mike Hubbard. His credibility has continued to diminish since that time. His cavalier, sinister, overbearing, and boorish New York behavior has made him a caricature.
In private conversations with most Republican and Democratic legislators, they will snicker and say if the BCA board is stupid enough to allow Canary to stay we will take their money during the 2018 election cycle and then ignore him for four years just like Shelby.
The BCA with Canary is a dead-man walking. They are a powerless joke. If a business were smart they would give their contributions directly to the candidates, rather than through a defunct organization led by a has been. You can bet your bottom dollar that is what ALFA and the Alabama Power Company will be doing.
Kay Ivey has made it official that she is a candidate for governor. She enters the race as the clear favorite.
See you next week.
September 06, 2017
Labor Day is the traditional kickoff to an election year. Folks our quadrennial gubernatorial election year is going to be a doozy. We are in for one heck of a political year next year.
Besides the Governor’s race, we have an open Lt. Governor’s race, an open Attorney General’s race, an open Treasurer’s race, and an open Agriculture Commissioner’s race. We have statewide races for Secretary of State and State Auditor. We have five seats up for election on the State Supreme Court. One of those will be a hotly contested battle for Chief Justice. We have two seats up for election on the Public Service Commission.
More importantly, we have local races on the 2018 ballot. Local races drive the turnout; all politics are local. All 67 sheriffs run, all probate judges run; there will also be local judicial races and all circuit clerks run.
All seven of our congressional seats will be on the ballot. Two of those seats will be in play. Second District Congresswoman Martha Roby is vulnerable and will be challenged and Fifth District Congressman Mo Brooks angered the Washington establishment Republican moneyed power brokers by challenging Luther Strange and he will be in a battle for his political life.
The most important races will be for the 35 state Senate seats and 105 House of Representative seats. An unprecedented number of Senators and Representatives will not be running for reelection. Those legislative races will be where most of the special interest money will gravitate. Money follows money. The Legislature appropriates state dollars as well as makes state laws. The Governor proposes and the Legislature disposes.
I have observed Alabama politics for quite awhile and 2018 is set to be the best circus I have seen, and I have seen some good ones. There may have been better governor’s races, but from top to bottom of the ballot, this may be the very best.
The governor’s race is always the marquee battle royale in Alabama politics. It will get cranked up immediately after the September 26 Republican Senate primary contest, which Roy Moore will probably win.
Kay Ivey will officially announce soon. She really began her campaign the day she was sworn in earlier this year. One of her first acts made her a player in the 2018 gubernatorial contest. Robert Bentley had initially called for the open Senate race to be in 2018. However, Ivey had seen polls that revealed that Roy Moore was going to win whatever race he ran for in 2018, whether it was Governor or U.S. Senator. The vague state Judicial Inquiry Commission made him a martyr and hero when they removed him from his Chief Justice post. Neither she nor any host of potential horses would have beaten the Ten Commandment’s Judge. However, she knew that the U.S. Senate seat would allure him and it did.
It was an adroit, brilliant Machiavellian move by Ivey. She has moved into the governor’s office and looks gubernatorial. She is in the catbird’s seat in the race for a full four-year term. Her move to have a special election this year rather than a regular election year not only enhanced her odds for election it also cost the state over $10 million.
State House of Representatives , Ways and Means Chairman, Steve Clouse, R-Ozark, has wisely and prudently prefiled a bill to clarify the law and clearly state that the election for a vacated Senate Seat would be held with the next general election. It will save the cash strapped General Fund a lot of money in the future.
Even though Kay Ivey will be running as the incumbent in the upcoming gubernatorial fray, her entrance has not deterred some major players. Huntsville Mayor, Tommy Battle, will be a player. He could run on a platform of saying if I can make the rest of Alabama a semblance of Huntsville, I am your man. Agriculture Commissioner, John McMillan, has won two statewide races and is in the race.
Several other viable candidates are not scared of the aging Ivey. Jefferson County Commissioner David Carrington, Birmingham Evangelist Scott Dawson, and State Senator Bill Hightower are already in the GOP contest.
Surprisingly two Democratic thoroughbreds are poised to run. Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox and former Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb are ready to pull the trigger.
PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh has moved to the Lt. Governor’s race. This is a wise and prudent move by the 50-year old state political veteran. She will be a prohibitive favorite to win that race. It is purely a name identification contest. Her positive name ID is very high.
See you next week.
August 30, 2017
Most people would assume that as the race for the open U.S. Senate began that Luther Strange, the appointed incumbent, was the favorite. However, polling indicated that Roy Moore was the favorite and still is as we head toward the September 26 runoff.
The initial polling showed that Moore had a hardcore 30 percent. It was and is as solid as a rock. He had 30 percent from the get-go. He had 30 percent midway in the race and he had 30 percent at the end. It was also a fact that with a low voter turnout that his 30 percent would become accentuated because the final poll and the one that counts is election day and who actually shows up to vote. Moore’s supporters are more ardent and are going to show up to vote for him come hell or high water. They are also older, and older people tend to vote; 65-80 year old voters are always more likely to vote.
The turnout on August 15 was 18 percent and Moore’s vote total was 39 percent. Allow me to crow a little – the day before the election I predicted an 18 percent turnout and that Moore would get 39 percent. I missed Luther Strange by some six points. I had him at 27 percent. He did better than I thought. He garnered 33 percent.
There was only six points separating Strange and Moore. This is not an insurmountable obstacle to overcome. My early handicapping of the runoff has it as a dead heat between Moore and Strange.
As the race began, it was apparent that it was a two-man race between Moore and Strange. Moore began with an immovable evangelical block and the Washington Republican Senate leadership made it clear that they were going to treat Strange as an incumbent and that they were going to give him unlimited resources. They weren’t just whistling Dixie. They put their money where their mouth was. They must have spent $5 million.
When you have that kind of money and the national powerbrokers and hierarchy dictating their choice, you not only have all the media ads available, you also have access to the very best hired guns, pollsters and media gurus in the country. They are the best gunslingers in the land. They do not lose many gunfights and they like to go negative.
It was obvious that these pros saw that Donald Trump or at least his public policies are extremely popular among Alabama Republican primary voters. Therefore, their script for Luther Strange was to say he was on Donald Trump’s side and would be for the Trump agenda to make America great again.
Luther stuck to the script and did a good job avoiding any negative questions about the questionable Robert Bentley appointment. Unlimited money washes away any unsavory scenarios and allows you to dictate the narrative.
The early polling revealed that the Bentley appointment was an albatross for Luther. I do not personally believe that Luther and Bentley ever discussed the Bentley investigation. However, to most people it looked as though the appointment was a brazen deal or at least collusion and in politics, perception is reality.
Therefore, for this reason on Luther’s part and for obvious reasons on Moore’s part, they both began with high negatives. Internal polling showed that there was fertile ground for a third person to win this race.
That third person emerged in the form of Tennessee Valley Congressman, Mo Brooks. He is a firebrand arch conservative intellectual, Tea Party, Freedom Caucus, true believing ideologue. He was bold enough to take on the Mitch McConnell super PAC big money Washington establishment. He had $1.2 million in his Congressional campaign account and 20 percent statewide name recognition from his Congressional district.
Mo did not plan on being shot at by a left wing Bernie Sanders socialist nut while practicing baseball for the Republican Party baseball team. However, the exposure gave him $2 million in free publicity. You could have no better introduction to Alabama GOP Primary voters.
The Washington Luther Strange gunslingers saw the momentum that Mo had. He was about to catch Luther and they stopped him dead in his tracks with an ad that said he was not going to vote for Donald Trump last year.
When Trump endorsed Big Luther it closed the deal. Luther had his place in the runoff and Mo has to fight to keep his U.S. House seat.
The final results were predictable. Roy Moore led with 39 percent; Luther Strange got a strong 33 percent; and Mo Brooks finished with a respectable 20 percent.
The runoff between Strange and Moore is too close to call at this time.
See you next week.
August 23, 2017
When the race for the open Jeff Sessions seat began, it appeared to be a Roy Moore versus Luther Strange contest. Well folks, that’s how it ended last Tuesday. We’ve got a runoff between our Ten Commandments Judge, Roy Moore, and Big Luther Strange.
Roy Moore has been around Alabama politics for a while now. Alabamians know who he is and what he stands for. He has been standing up for Fundamentalist Christian values since his days as an Etowah County Judge where he displayed his initial wooden Ten Commandments plaque on the walls of his courtroom. He became so famous for his stand that he rode that notoriety to being elected Chief Justice of Alabama’s Supreme Court.
Alabama is undoubtedly one of, if not the most, fundamentalist Bible believing states in America. Most of the hard-core fundamentalist Moore followers put more credence in the Old Testament than the New Testament. Therefore, Moore’s emphasis on the Ten Commandments resonated then and still does today.
Judge Roy Moore became emboldened when he became Chief Justice. In the dark of night he had a 5,000-pound monument placed in the Supreme Court building’s rotunda. A federal court asked him to remove it. He refused and they removed him.
It made him a martyr among the brethren. He ran twice for governor but failed to make the runoff each time. It appeared to be a chink in his armor. It became obvious to those of us who follow Alabama politics that voters thought highly of him as a judge but for some reason did not see him as a governor.
This became clearly apparent when five years ago he disposed of two well-financed opponents in a race for his old post as Chief Justice. He won handily even though he was outspent 3-to-1. Folks in Alabama like Moore as a judge. However, it appears that they may like him as a U.S. Senator.
If you think he was thought of as a martyr for being removed from the Bench for standing up for his Ten Commandments monument, folks in Alabama really resented some vague judicial inquiry commission asking him to leave his seat as Chief Justice for telling Probate Judges in the state to stop marrying gay people. In the “Heart of Dixie” you cannot ask for a better entree into a governor’s race or senate race.
Early polling showed Moore was so far out front in the governor’s race that he would have beaten the current field without a runoff. This judicial inquiry group coronated Moore and made him a folk hero. Ole George Wallace would have loved to have been dealt these cards. I can just hear him now, “Well I’ll tell you right now if two homosexual people want to get married in Alabama I’ll be the first one to stand in the courthouse door and stop ‘em. I’ll even get them a one-way bus ticket to California where they can just stay, and I’ll tell you this too, if one of those transgenders protests in front of my car they may as well get ready to get run over. And if y’all send me to Washington, I’ll ask for a seat next to the left wing socialist wackos, Bernie Sanders and Pocahontas Warren, and I’ll ask them what bathroom they think the transgenders should go to. Then I’ll introduce a resolution requiring all transgenders be sent to California to live with those communist sympathizing, left wing movie stars and appear on the Stephen Colbert and Bill Maher shows.”
Wallace would have had a field day. Wallace was a master politician; some would say a demagogue. Moore was dealt this hand. He is not the politician that George Wallace was. He actually is a true believer. He is not a demagogue. He has put his money where his mouth is. He lost his job not once but twice over his beliefs. Believe me, George Wallace would not have left his job as governor if they told him he was going to be sent back to Barbour County if he did not get out of that school house door.
Folks in Alabama feel like Moore was done wrong and they set out to right that wrong. They were going to elect Moore governor next year. However, they rather have him as their Senator.
As expected Moore led the field last week. Next week we will analyze the race and runoff and how his opponent, Big Luther Strange, stacks up against Moore.
See you next week.
August 16, 2017
You know the results of Tuesday’s primaries for our U.S. Senate seat. I had to go to press before the vote. However, the assumption was that there would be a runoff in the Republican primary. It is safe to say that the winner of that runoff on September 26 will be elected as our next junior U.S. Senator. We are such a reliably Republican state that winning the GOP Primary will be tantamount to election in December.
It may surprise you for me to say that it really makes very little difference as to who ultimately wins this seat. Whichever Republican prevails will vote no differently than the other. Despite all the money spent, name calling, and campaigning, whoever the Republican primary victor is will vote conservatively right down the line. They will have the identical conservative voting record as Jeff Sessions. They all would vote right on the litmus test hot button GOP issues like abortion, immigration, balanced budget, pro military, pro gun and pro agriculture. Whoever wins will support President Donald Trump and the most conservative Supreme Court nominee available.
Therefore, your choice is Tweedle Dee or Tweedle Dum. Your only choice is which personality you like best. It is like whether you like right wing vanilla or right wing strawberry ice cream. Whichever Republican you choose out of this batch of ice cream you will still have an ice cream sandwich who will vote for the right wing conservative agenda.
Therefore, will one be able to be more efficient? Probably not. Seniority is what dictates power in the Washington Congressional pecking order and guess what - our new Junior U.S. Senator will rank 100th in Seniority in the 100 member U.S. Senate.
Their path to power is also limited by their age. If the ultimate victor is one of the projected frontrunners, they are getting to the Senate at too old of an age to be a player or make a difference. Roy Moore is 70, Luther Strange is 64, and Mo Brooks is 63. Whoever becomes the Senator will be finished before anybody in Washington knows who they are and none of them will ever chair a committee. Therefore, it really doesn’t matter which Republican ultimately wins.
However, do not be dismayed, we have a senior U.S. Senator who can pick up any slack. Folks, our senior Senator is Richard Shelby. We do not even need a second senator when we have Shelby.
Richard Shelby, because of his seniority and senatorial prowess and prestige is easily one of the three most powerful members of the United States Senate.
Senator Shelby is the Chairman of the Senate Rules Committee. Folks, what that means is that before any law, any budget, or any Supreme Court nominee gets to the floor of the U.S. Senate, Senator Shelby has to approve it. This makes him about as powerful as the President. I am not saying that Shelby trumps Trump in power. However, I am saying that there are about 95 Senators who need the President. There are about five Senators that Trump needs more than they need him. Shelby is one of them.
Most special interest groups and really anybody or any entity like the NRA who want anything done in Washington would rather have Richard Shelby on their side rather than Donald Trump.
Richard Shelby has reached a pinnacle of power never before seen in Alabama’s rich political lore of U.S. Senators.
We have had some great Senators. The names of John H. Bankhead, Lister Hill and John Sparkman are legendary. However, Richard Shelby has surpassed those giants in power and what he has done for Alabama.
Richard Shelby is in his 31st year of representing us in the U.S. Senate. He has chaired the Senate Intelligence Committee, the Senate Banking Committee, and now the Senate Rules Committee. Within two years, he will break John Sparkman’s 32-year Senate tenure record. Shelby will probably make a lateral move to chair the Senate Appropriations Committee. If you think he has brought home the bacon the past three decades, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Do not fret about who our junior U.S. Senator is going to be. It really does not matter when you have Richard Shelby.
See you next week.
August 09, 2017
Folks we are getting down to the proverbial lick log in the much-anticipated vote for the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions. After 20 years in the U.S. Senate as our junior U.S. Senator, Sessions left to become Donald Trump’s Attorney General. He probably regrets this decision.
When the race began it looked like a Roy Moore vs. Luther Strange race. However, the third outside horse emerged about a month ago. Tennessee Valley Congressman, Mo Brooks, got a $2 million bump from the shooting he endured while a member of the Republican baseball team. He seized the moment and Mo’s momentum gave him the “Big Mo.”
About three weeks ago it looked like a three man race between Moore, Strange and Brooks. However, the Washington beltway consultants, pollsters, and media experts supporting Strange poured a ton of money into stopping Mo’s momentum with negative ads designed to thwart his catching Luther and ousting him from the runoff. Recent polls indicate that it has worked.
The latest polls indicate a one-two finish between Moore and Strange. Strange’s Washington pollsters tout that he may finish in first place ahead of Moore. Money talks and it is the mother’s milk of politics.
State Senator Trip Pittman will do better than some experts expect. Watch for him to get a good hometown vote in Mobile and Baldwin Counties.
Moore’s support has never diminished. It consistently hovers around 30 percent, even with his inability to raise or spend much money. On the other hand, Luther Strange’s supporters have spent $3 - $5 million. The Bentley appointment has been a tremendous albatross for Luther. Turnout is critical. Luther Strange would benefit from a large turnout among upscale Jefferson/Shelby metro voters. Mo Brooks hopes may ride on a large turnout in the Tennessee Valley.
Strange’s and Moore’s odds are enhanced by the short window that the race was run. Strange’s chances have been boosted by the endorsement of Alfa. This conservative group’s endorsement carries a lot of weight.
When Luther took the tainted nomination from Robert Bentley six months ago, he was told that he would have two years before he would run. Under that scenario, his bet that a ton of money would be all he would need to keep the seat was a good bet. However, when Governor Kay Ivey changed that election to this year the scenario changed dramatically.
If Luther were running in 2018 there would be 60 races on the ballot with a record 300 names from which to choose. The average voter, who could care less who the junior U.S. Senator is anyway, will also be voting for State Senator, State Representative, Sheriff, Probate Judge, Circuit Judge, District Judge, five seats on the State Supreme Court, along with a spirited Chief Justice contest, State Auditor, State Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner, an open contested Attorney General race, an open contested Lt. Governor’s race, and one of the most crowded Governor’s races in state history that may well attract 10 viable candidates.
The millions spent to elect Luther Strange would have been overwhelming. Folks would have walked into the booth and voted for the only name they knew. However, this is the only race in town. The people who show up to vote will know the score. With the election being August 15 and it being the only race, there will be a low turnout. Also, any money spent for negative attacks will generally drive down the voter turnout.
All indications point to a low voter turnout, which helps Moore. He began with 30 percent and they have not gone anywhere. His 30 percent will vote and the lower the turnout, the higher percentage that 30 percent becomes. Moore’s folks will not be at the lake or beach or deterred by the August heat. They are ardent and they will vote.
Remember a poll is a picture of the total electorate. The final poll and the one that counts is the count of votes of those who actually show up to vote next Tuesday.
We will see.
July 26, 2017
During my tenure in the legislature in the 1980’s and 1990’s, political party affiliation was not as pronounced as it is today.
We were identified within the Montgomery/Capitol arena as either a conservative pro-business legislator or a liberal pro-union/pro-trial lawyer legislator.
Similar to when someone new arrives in Alabama and they are asked to choose sides in college football, you have to make your allegiance with either Alabama or Auburn. We had to make the same choice as legislators. I chose early to be on the side of business. I even took a leading role and was the sponsor of most of the Tort Reform legislation. Therefore, most observers rated me an arch pro-business conservative.
The tort problem was so bad in Alabama that we were considered the black eye of the nation. Time Magazine called us “Tort Hell.” With the help of the National Business Community, along with Alabama business leaders and legislators, the Business Council of Alabama was formed. The BCA grew to become the most powerful organization in Alabama.
When Bob Riley became governor in 2002, he orchestrated a game plan to take control of the BCA. He succeeded and put his boy, Billy Canary, a Washington political insider in control. Canary was a political hack that would carry out dirty tricks and chicanery for George Bush and Karl Rowe.
Bob Riley and Mike Hubbard controlled the BCA through Billy Canary. Riley still continues to pull the strings and make money. However, everything points to Canary’s days at the BCA coming to an end. There have been rumors of his demise for over a year. It appears that it may occur any day. For those of us who fought the battles for business in Alabama and saw the birth and creation of the BCA, that day is long overdue.
Under Canary’s and Riley’s reign BCA has abandoned it’s mission of supporting business and the general well-being of the state and now, in the opinion of many, does more harm than good.
No one familiar with the workings of the legislature will deny that Canary has become largely ineffective in representing the interests of business in the legislative process. For the past few years he has failed to pass an infrastructure bill largely supported by business across the state. This past session Canary failed in his efforts to stop legislation that would require insurance coverage for some Autism related issues. On the Autism measure, Canary could get only one vote for his position on the Senate floor. Most GOP legislators vote against pro-business legislation because of Canary.
Billy Canary’s leadership goes past simply failure and begins to enter the realm of causing real harm to the state and the businesses he represents. Canary once boasted of his position on convicted Speaker Mike Hubbard’s “kitchen cabinet.” However, in the Hubbard trial Canary was less than convincing on the stand as his memory fades on issues discussed with Hubbard. Some of those issues were part and parcel of the 12 felony convictions that removed Hubbard from office. Most folks expected Canary would be indicted with Hubbard.
Now, BCA and Canary face possible involvement in the North Birmingham corruption investigation that has already resulted in one House member’s confession to crime.
Some observers believe the scandal surrounding an anonymous ethics complaint that scuttled Dr. Craig Pouncey’s bid to be the State Superintendent of Education may lead back to Canary.
The Board of the BCA and everyone concerned with the future of Alabama should be asking why in the world Canary has taken a once proud and effective organization into such controversial issues that have so little to do with core business interests. The answer is simple – Billy Canary has numerous conflicts of interest.
During his tenure as President of the BCA Canary has continued to maintain outside consulting contracts that pose clear conflicts with his role at BCA. However, this should come as no surprise since Billy Canary’s home is New York.
Any organization that does not adapt ultimately cannot survive. BCA is at a critical crossroads in its existence. If the leadership of the organization does not replace Canary and move quickly to realign BCA with the interests of its members, its days as a vital voice for Alabama Business may be over.
See you next week.
July 19, 2017
As the horse race for our open U.S. Senate seat heads down the stretch, let’s look at the lay of the land.
All indications are that Roy Moore and Luther Strange are headed for a one-two finish on August 15 and ultimately a runoff on September 26. The winner of that match will be our junior U. S. Senator for the next three years of the Jeff Sessions’ seat term.
The short window for the campaign helps Moore and Strange. They both have name identification and have run several successful campaigns for significant statewide offices
Roy Moore has worked the rural areas of the state quietly without much money. Luther Strange has bought heavy TV time in the Birmingham media market hoping to turnout upscale suburban Republicans.
A combination of polls as we head around the curve and into the last leg of the race has Moore at 30, Strange at 28 and Brooks at 18.
The caveat to remember is that turnout is critical. Moore’s 30 percent will show up. Therefore, his final vote tally on August 15 could be higher than 30. A poll is a picture of the entire electorate. The poll that actually counts is the poll on August 15 and it is comprised of those that showed up to cast their ballot.
Congressman Mo Brooks has the best chance to upset one of the two frontrunners. He represents the vote rich Tennessee Valley in Congress. He is the only viable candidate from that neck of the woods. He is a member of the Right Wing Freedom Caucus in Congress. If that ultra conservative group has a grassroots fundraising organization and they raise Mo some money, he could surprise and overcome Luther.
There are two descriptions I like to use when assessing a U.S. Senator and the script they seek as your senator. Senator Richard Shelby is the ultimate caretaker. He has proven to be the greatest U.S. Senator in Alabama history. Over the past 30 years, he has brought home the bacon. He has also voted conservatively.
In fact, if you compare the voting records of Shelby and Sessions they would be identical. However, Jeff Sessions would be categorized as an ideologue. He was an ultraconservative during his tenure in the Senate and was considered one of the upper bodies’ most arch right wing reactionaries. Therefore, would Roy Moore or Mo Brooks or Luther Strange be considered a caretaker or an ideologue?
Mo Brooks has already proven to be an ideologue as a Congressman. There is no question but that Roy Moore would be the ultimate ideologue. He would arrive in Washington and by national standards would be the caricature that the Democratic Party would use as the poster boy that depicts how far right the Republican Party is today. It would be Moore’s mission to be perceived as the most ideologically religious zealot on the scene. Alabama would be known for having the most religious right wing senator in the nation. The national Democrats would use Roy Moore’s picture in every ad in every California race the same way Obama was used Alabama.
Luther Strange would be in the mold of Senator Richard Shelby as a caretaker. Shelby would mentor Luther, who is more of a mainstream conservative.
Strange, Moore or Brooks would all vote conservatively right down the line. They would have the identical voting record as Jeff Sessions or Richard Shelby on all the litmus test GOP issues like abortion, immigration, balanced budget, pro-military, pro-gun, pro-agriculture and most importantly the appointment and confirmation of conservative Supreme Court Justices.
However, without question, Luther Strange would be a much more effective U.S. Senator for Alabama than Roy Moore or Mo Brooks. He would be more of the type Senator that we have in Richard Shelby. We have had some greats like Shelby, Lister Hill, John Sparkman, and John Bankhead.
Alabama would be better served to have a conservative caretaker in Washington than a reactionary right wing ideologue. However, Alabamians may prefer having a missionary in Washington rather than a visionary – at least those who show up to vote on August 15.
See you next week.