August 15, 2018 - Brett Kavavaugh to Scotus. Assures Trump Legacy
The appointment of a United States Supreme Court Justice is one of the most profound legacies that a U. S. President can achieve. The opportunity that President Donald Trump was given to appoint a new Neil Gorsuch to the High Tribunal last year will be a monumental achievement of the Trump administration.
The chance to name a second Supreme Court appointment will be a colossal legacy for the Trump presidency.
The appointment of two seats on the Supreme Court has given Trump an indelible place in U.S. presidential history.
The leftist detractors of the Trump presidency are moaning. However, the conservative base of American politics has got to be rejoicing with hallelujahs. The quiet, conservative Americans who voted for Trump probably never realize how impactful their vote for Trump was in November, 2016.
For within less than two years after casting that vote they will have placed America on a more stable conservative path for not only the rest of their lives, but possibly for the next generation.
President Trump’s appointment and subsequent confirmation of Neil Gorsuch to replace the deceased Antonin Scalia was a profound choice.
However, his selection of Brett Kavanaugh to replace the retiring jurist Anthony Kennedy is equally brilliant.
If Trump does nothing else during his tenure in the White House, if you are a conservative American, Trump’s presidency has been a rousing overwhelming success.
When the last votes were counted in November of 2016 and it became obvious that Donald Trump had defeated Hillary Clinton, conservative Americans were amazingly exuberant. Many had turned out to vote for one reason. The possibility of naming a conservative to the Supreme Court was their primary reason for voting for Trump. The naming of two within two years was beyond their wildest dreams.
With the conclusion of the eight-year reign of the liberal Obama ERA and Trump’s defeat of Clinton, President Obama made one last simple, profound statement; “Elections have consequences.” That epitaph has become prophetic.
The court had been drifting leftward out to sea with the two extremely liberal Obama appointees, Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomoyor coming on board. However, the Supreme Court Ship of State has taken a turn to the right under the helm of Captain Trump.
Brett Kavavaugh is an excellent selection. He has impeccable credentials. He is only 53 years old, which means that he will be a sensible mainstream conservative voice of the court for probably three decades.
Brett Kavanaugh’s resume reads like a profile of someone born to be a U.S. Supreme Court Justice. Like most Supreme Court members, he graduated from a prestigious Ivy League Law school. He is a product of Yale undergraduate and Yale Law School.
Kavanaugh was the favorite for the appointment from the beginning. He was always on the top of Trump’s short list and the choice of the Republican legal establishment in Washington. He is a former law clerk of the retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy.
Although Kennedy had been appointed by Republican Ronald Reagan, he was considered the one moderate on the court. There are four bonafide liberal justices and four stalwart conservatives. Kennedy was the swing vote in the middle. Trump’s appointment of Kavanaugh will replace a swing vote on the nine-member court with a staunch conservative.
Kavanaugh served in George W. Bush’s administration and has been a distinguished jurist in the Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit for over a decade and has written over 300 opinions. Therefore, his record as a jurist has been thoroughly reviewed and scrutinized. He is looked upon as a top legal scholar and strict constitutional adherent with a record of following judicial precedence.
Kavanaugh will be confirmed along pretty much the same partisan lines as Gorsuch.
Trump is blessed with a Republican majority Senate. Leader Mitch McConnell will put the confirmation hearings on a fast track and have Kavanaugh approved by the end of October, prior to the mid-term elections. The Republicans have a thin 51 to 49 majority. All 51 Republican Senators appear to be on board for confirmation, including Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Our Senator Richard Shelby has given a big thumbs up to Kavanaugh.
In addition to the 51 Republicans, Kavanaugh is expected to pick up four Democratic Senate votes of moderate Democrats from red states.
The big question is how does our new accidental anomaly, Democratic Senator Doug Jones vote. He is considered a longshot to win in 2020. However, a yes vote on confirmation could give him a glimmer of hope. A no vote would guarantee his not being elected to a full term. His liberal Democratic colleagues like Chuck Schumer, Dianne Feinstein, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders would stand a better chance being elected as the junior senator from the Heart of Dixie than Jones.
See you next week.
August 8, 2018 - Primary Political Potpourri
Now that the dust has settled on the primaries, allow me to share with you some thoughts on the Alabama political stage.
There is an old saying that says the more things change, the more they stay the same. This old adage is true in Alabama politics.
First of all, “All politics is local.” In the June 5 Primary, the turnout was about 25 percent on the average around the state. However, the ultimate voter turnout was 27 percent due to local races. Alabamians are more interested in who is sheriff and Probate Judge than who is Lt. Governor, or Attorney General.
Secretary of State, John Merrill, predicted a 27 percent turnout on June 5. Guess what, there was a 27 percent turnout. Almost 873,000 Alabamians voted. There were twice as many voters, 590,000, that chose the Republican ballot than the Democratic slate. There were 283,000 Democratic voters.
What this tells me is that we are still a very red Republican state. We have 29 elected statewide officeholders in the state. All 29 are Republican. When all the votes are counted in November, that 29 out of 29 figure will still be more than likely the same in the Heart of Dixie. The Democrats have a good horse in Walt Maddox. He may run close to Kay Ivey, but the odds favor an incumbent GOP Governor who has done nothing wrong and sits in the Governor’s office in a robust economy. I would put the odds at 56 to 44 in Ivey’s favor.
The Legislature will remain about the same after the November General Election as we head into the next quadrennium. The Alabama House of Representatives will have an over 2 to 1 GOP majority. The numbers will be about what they are now, 72 Republicans and 33 Democrats.
The State Senate will more than likely have a 3 to 1 GOP edge. The members now are 26 Republicans and eight Democrats and one Independent. The Democrats may very well pick up a Senate Seat in Northwest Alabama with Johnny Mack Morrow vs Larry Stutts which will bring them to nine. The Independent seat being held by Senator Harri Ann Smith in the Wiregrass is one of the most Republican in the state. Harri Ann is retiring. It will be taken by the very Republican and popular state representative, Donnie Chesteen.
Whoever made the decision to oust Harri Ann from the Republican Party six years ago made a very poor and ignorant decision. She continued to be elected as an Independent. Her popularity exudes my example of all politics is local and home folks know you best.
The GOP control of the Senate will probably be 26 to 9 or 27 to 8.
Speaking of control, the Big Dog still walks the halls of the State House. The Alabama Farmers Federation or Alfa still controls the legislature. They ran the table in legislative races all over the state. That is because they ran most of the races for their candidates. They are the kings of Goat Hill, the same way they were in 1901 when the state constitution was written. The more things change the more they stay the same.
Alfa perennially puts their power, muscle and interest in the legislature. They endorse in the statewide races and their endorsement is invaluable, especially in secondary state races. Their members vote that ballot and many conservative Alabamians look over the Farmers’ shoulder and vote along with them.
Alfa may give a token contribution to the Agriculture Commissioner, Attorney General, or Lt. Governor race and maybe $25,000 to the governor’s race. However, it is not unusual for them to put up to $50,000 in a House race and over $100,000 into a Senate race, along with excellent political strategy and pastures along interstates to put big signs on.
They use to play in the governor’s race. However, they got burned badly by Bob Riley when they helped him get elected and the first thing he did was stab them in the back. However, they have slipped around this year and will not only own the legislature, they will probably have a good friend in the governor’s office.
The day before the primary, Kay Ivey boarded Jimmy Ranes jet to fly around the state. The first person to board with her was Beth Chapman, Alfa’s political consultant. The next night when she came off the platform after giving her victory speech, guess who was helping her off the stage and holding her arm so that she would not fall? It was Jimmy Parnell the Farmers Federation president.
Folks do not look for property taxes to be increased in the Heart of Dixie over the next four years.
See you next week.
August 1, 2018 - More Analysis of GOP Runoff
Currently, congressmen/women win reelection at a 98 percent rate. The communist politburo does not have that high of a reelection percentage. Maybe we have more in common with the Russians than Washington CNN reporters think.
It is hard to get beat as an incumbent congressman. Martha Roby tried but even though she was the most vulnerable Republican incumbent congressperson in the country, she shellacked a former Montgomery mayor, one term congressman, and doggone good country one-on-one politician Bobby Bright. She beat him like a rented mule, 68-32.
Two years ago, she blatantly said she was not going to vote for the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, for President. Trump and the Republican Party are very popular in the 2nd Congressional District. It is one of the most conservative and GOP based districts in the nation. Currently, Trump’s approval rating among GOP voters in the second district is 90 percent.
Well, young Ms. Roby, became an instant pariah in her district. She would have lost overwhelmingly had the 2016 GOP primary not just been over. There was an unprecedented, record breaking, number of write in votes against her in the November 2016 General Election.
It was assumed that whoever ran against her in this year’s GOP Primary would beat her. She was scorned and mocked in her district and even uninvited to GOP events. Indeed, four viable men ran against her in the GOP Primary. She outspent them four-to-one and still only got 39 percent to Bright’s 27 percent.
She pulled it out in the runoff for two reasons. Donald Trump endorsed her, which was manna from heaven. Trump is very popular in Southeast Alabama and the reason she was in the doghouse anyway was because she said she was not going to vote for Trump. If Trump forgave her, then folks in Andalusia figured they would too.
However, the big reason she won was because of the incumbency rule mentioned earlier. Washington special interest money stays with incumbents. The Washington money stuck with her like glue. She outspent Bright 9-to-1. It is impossible to overcome that kind of financial advantage.
She learned her lesson. Bet you won’t see her involved in somebody else’s race again. It was an arrogant and unnecessary faux pas. First of all, nobody cares who a three term, backbench congressperson is going to vote for as president. Folks in a Republican district assume that you are going to vote for a fellow Republican.
The Agriculture race ended about as expected in the runoff. Rick Pate led Gerald Dial 40-to-30 in the first primary. Pate beat Dial 57-to-43 in the runoff.
Pate is a lifetime farmer and longtime Farmers Federation leader. The Alfa endorsement was critical in this race. They loyally supported him. Pate won even in the metropolitan counties. Alabamians inexplicably have a way of picking the farmer in this race.
The turnout in the GOP runoff was abysmal. It was around 12 percent statewide. However, in counties where there were local races, it was between 25-35 percent. All politics is local. Walker Country had 25 percent turnout because they had a tough sheriff race. Marion had three local runoff races and voted at 28 percent. Marshall County had two local candidates running statewide, Will Ainsworth and Steve Marshall. They voted 19 percent.
In Alabama political history, Barbour County has been known as the Home of Governors, and indeed, six Alabama Governors have called Barbour County home. In the 80’s and 90’s Cullman County claimed two Governors, Guy Hunt and Jim Folsom, Jr. Of course, little Jim’s daddy, Big Jim, was governor in the 1940’s and 50’s. That gave Cullman County three governors. Tuscaloosa has had three governors. They should rightfully claim Lurleen Wallace, who was born and raised in Northport. Only a few years ago, Tuscaloosa had a unique advantage of claiming the Governor Robert Bentley and Alabama’s Senior Senator and most powerful politico, Richard Shelby, at the same time.
However, the results of the Republican Primary have propelled Marshall County into the limelight. Beginning with the next quadrennium, Marshall County will more than likely lay claim to both Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth and Attorney General Steve Marshall.
For generations the legendary Beat 14 in Elmore County was the Bellweather box in the state for predicting the governor’s race and mirroring the results statewide. In recent years their clairvoyance has diminished. There is a new rival to Beat 14 in Elmore County, Patsburg in Crenshaw County has been getting it right for a while now. In the July 17 runoff, Patsburg got every race correct. As Patsburg goes, so goes the state.
See you next week.
July 25, 2018 - GOP Primary Runoff Analysis
The storyline of last week’s GOP Primary runoff was the extremely low turnout. The big surprises to me were the big victories by Steve Marshall for Attorney General and Martha Roby for Congress. Their winning was not a surprise; however, their margin of victory was impressive.
Going into the runoff my guess was that whichever one won between Marshall or Troy King, would win by a narrow margin. After all they had arrived at the runoff in a dead heat of 28 percent each. It is hard to tell how Marshall was able to trounce King by a 62 to 38 margin. The only logical theory would be that he got a sympathy vote from his wife’s death during the runoff.
King’s filing a suit over Marshall’s campaign fundraising, days before the election hurt the former Attorney General. It made him look like a loser. Also, it became apparent to me during the campaign that both Marshall and King were polarizing figures. Folks either liked them or they really did not like them.
King obviously made some enemies and detractors during his tenure as Attorney General. As George Wallace used to tell me, “More folks vote against someone than for someone.” King will probably be residing in Buck’s Pocket, politically, for the rest of his life. However, he personally will be a lot better off, especially financially. Just ask Jere Beasley.
The Lt. Governor’s race ended about like I expected. I thought it would be close and it was. It was really the only nip and tuck battle of the night. Will Ainsworth was the big winner of this 2018 political year. He went from being a one term state legislator from Sand Mountain to Lt. Governor of Alabama. At age 37, he is now the youngest among the major players on the state political scene. His narrow but impressive victory supplants Twinkle Cavanaugh as the heir apparent to governor. This race attracted more money and attention than is usually the case, and for good reason.
Our Lt. Governor has ascended to Governor more times than not in recent decades. If Kay Ivey is elected Governor, as expected, she will more than likely only serve one four-year term. Will Ainsworth with his victory last week has emerged as one of the favorites in the 2022 Governor’s race.
How did young Ainsworth pull off his victory? If you are an observer of Alabama politics, you can see the path clearly. The more things change the more they stay the same. Ainsworth’s calling card from the get-go was that he had family money to spend. Sometimes people have money and tout that as an advantage but, when push comes to shove, they won’t spend it. Ainsworth put his money where his mouth was. He spent it.
Money is the mother’s milk of politics. Ainsworth did a good days work when he hired whoever ran his campaign. His polling and media were dead on and outstanding. His polling and media people knew when to go negative and how much to spend and what ad would work. Thus, the truisms came into play.
Number one – money talks. It is the mother’s milk of politics. Number 2 is more people vote against someone than for someone. Thus, negative advertising works. Thirdly, people in Alabama vote for someone from their neck of the woods. Especially in secondary races.
Folks, there are a lot more people and votes in North Alabama than South Alabama. There was a distinct regional delineation that Ainsworth was from the north and Twinkle’s base and home was in South Alabama. North Alabama will beat South Alabama every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Finally, don’t ever run statewide in Alabama without the Alfa endorsement. Make no doubt about it, folks, Alfa is still the big dog in Alabama politics. They ran the table on all the statewide races in last Tuesday’s runoff. The Alfa endorsement was the common thread that appeared in the final results of all races.
Ainsworth’s name, as the endorsed candidate of the Farmers Federation ballot was without a doubt the difference in the 10,000-vote margin by which he edged Twinkle.
In a low turnout race, the Farmers Federation endorsement becomes ever more pronounced and accentuated. Farmers vote. They vote Republican. They vote the Alfa ballot.
They not only won every legislative race in the state that they wanted, which is their bread and butter, in addition, they won the statewide offices. So, you might say they got their dinner and dessert. You can probably bet the family farm that property taxes will not be raised in the Heart of Dixie this next quadrennium.
See you next week.
July 18, 2018 - Potpourri/Notebook from June 5 Primary
You have the results of Tuesday’s runoff elections. I had to go to press with my column before the results were known.
There are some fantastic runoff races which should be close and interesting. The four best will be Troy King versus Steve Marshall in the Attorney General’s race. The Lt. Governor runoff between Twinkle Cavanaugh and Will Ainsworth will be interesting. The Agriculture race between Rick Pate and Gerald Dial will be good. It will be interesting to see if Bobby Bright ousted Martha Roby from Congress in the 2nd district.
Let me share some thoughts and analyses from the first primary on June 5th. Kay Ivey and Walt Maddox won their party’s nominations very impressively. Governor Ivey used the mantle of incumbency to win a decisive victory with 56 percent of the vote against three thought to be viable, well financed opponents. Her campaign was brilliantly run. Her television ads were excellent.
The mastermind of her campaign was Brent Buchanan. He is now the master of political campaigns in Alabama. His polling arm, Cygnal, is the most accurate on the scene. He uses his polling adroitly to design brilliant ads. Buchanan runs many campaigns out of state. He only ran two in the state, Ivey’s gubernatorial contest and Gerald Dials’ race for Agriculture Commissioner. In fact, Buchanan came up with the best ad of the campaign season. The jingle ad for Dial in the Ag race was spectacular.
Walt Maddox’s waltz to victory over five opponents without a runoff was impressive. It became apparent in the closing days that he was going to win without a runoff. He ran the table on all of the important endorsements. He got the Alabama Democratic Conference, New South Coalition, but even more importantly the endorsement of and use of the young Birmingham Mayor, Randall Woodfin’s organization. This was a recipe for a big win.
Maddox is the best candidate that the Democrats have fielded for governor in two decades. He is young, vibrant, and has a proven track record as a Chief Executive/Mayor of one of Alabama’s largest and most important cities, Tuscaloosa.
However, we are still a very red state. All 29 of our statewide elected offices are held by Republicans. Kay Ivey is not only the Republican nominee, she is the sitting Republican governor who can continue to cut ribbons and claim credit for every industrial announcement as well as the outstanding national economy and job growth. She will refuse to debate or go unscripted. In addition, as the incumbent she can raise substantial campaign funds.
In the June 5th primary, there were twice as many votes cast in the GOP Primary as there was in the Democratic Primary. There were 340,000 votes cast for Kay Ivey, whereas there were only 284,000 votes cast for all of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates combined. Therefore, 174,000 more people voted for Governor Kay Ivey than Mayor Walt Maddox.
I would handicap this race 56 to 44 in favor of Ivey going into the Fall. The only way that Maddox can win is for Kay to falter. Her handlers should keep her close to home and limit her appearances. They should continue to not discuss the issues that face the state or take any positions or offer any plans for the state woes. Under no circumstance should they allow her to debate. The young articulate mayor would eat her lunch. The contrast in appearance itself would be dramatic.
Maddox, if not elected, will live to run another day. The divide between the two political parties is narrowing in the state. Younger voters are trending Democratic, even in the Heart of Dixie.
Tommy Battle ran a very successful get acquainted race for governor. He will be the favorite in 2022. You could see a Walt Maddox vs. Tommy Battle contest in four years.
Battle built name ID and got 25 percent of the vote against a popular incumbent governor. He goes back to being Mayor of Alabama’s most prosperous and fastest growing city. If you think Huntsville has prospered and boomed the last 10 years, you ain’t seen nothing yet! It could very easily be the boom town of America in the next five to ten years.
Maddox’s city of Tuscaloosa is growing right behind Huntsville. Quite frankly, Battle and Maddox have much better jobs as mayors of Huntsville and Tuscaloosa than if they were Governor of Alabama.
See you next week.
July 11, 2018 - Primary Runoffs Next Week
Well folks, if you vote in the Republican primary you may want to go back to the polls next week and finish selecting the GOP nominees for several important state offices. If you are a Democrat the only reason you will need to vote on Tuesday is if you have a runoff in a local race and there are very few of those around.
We are still a very red Republican state. There are 29 elected statewide officials in Alabama. All 29 are held by Republicans. When all the votes are counted in November, that 29 out of 29 figures will more than likely be the same in the Heart of Dixie. The Blue wave has not reached here. There were twice as many Republican voters, 590,000 to 283,000, as Democratic voters on June 5.
In addition to having all 29 state offices held by Republicans, six out of seven of our members of Congress are members of the GOP. That will also remain the same when the dust settles in the fall.
The only contested Congressional race is for the Second District, which encompasses most of the Montgomery River Region, including Elmore and Autauga Counties, coupled with the Wiregrass. It is a very conservative district. Therefore, it is a Republican seat. The winner of the GOP runoff between Martha Roby and Bobby Bright will be the Congressman. Whichever one is elected will vote consistently conservative with the GOP leadership in Congress.
Roby is on the ropes because she vowed openly, two years ago, that she would not vote for Donald Trump for President. That unnecessary display of disloyalty has made her very unpopular in the district. Trump has a 90 percent approval rating among Republican primary voters in southeast Alabama. She would have lost two years ago if the primary had been held after her statement. There was an unprecedented number of write in votes against her. She has been considered very vulnerable since that time.
National special interests stuck to their script and stayed loyal to the incumbent and loaded her up with Washington money. She was able to outspend her four male opponents by an over 2 to 1 margin. However, she fell short in the primary garnering about 38 percent. Bobby Bright received 27 percent and is well known and liked in the district. However, President Trump’s endorsement of Roby three weeks ago may have wiped the slate clean for Roby and given her a clear path to reelection.
Winning the Republican nomination for Attorney General and Lt. Governor in Alabama is still pretty much tantamount to election in Alabama, although the Democrats have a viable candidate for Attorney General in young Joseph Siegelman in November. Don Siegelman’s son Joseph along with youthful Tuscaloosa mayor, Walt Maddox, have viable chances of winning as a Democrat in November.
The GOP race for Attorney General has been the best contest in the primary season. Troy King began the race as the favorite and will probably prevail next Tuesday. There were four formidable horses in this race. King has previously served as Attorney General and therefore was perceived as the incumbent. Bentley appointee Steve Marshall had been a Democratic DA for a while. This one will boil down to who votes.
In a GOP runoff, only the hardcore Republican base will vote. Those voters will not be excited about Steve Marshall who was appointed by Robert Bentley and as late as a few years ago was expediently a Democrat who was appointed by Don Siegelman. In fact, he voted for and contributed to Barack Obama. My guess is that folks will vote for Troy King, a lifelong Republican.
The race for Lt. Governor will be close between Twinkle Cavanaugh and Will Ainsworth. This contest has attracted more attention and money than ever. The odds say that there is a 50-50 chance that whoever wins this contest next Tuesday will ascend to Governor over the next few years. Our current governor moved from Lt. Governor to Governor without being elected. It has happened more than once over the past few decades.
If you vote on Tuesday, you will be in a pool of about 10 to 12 percent of voters. Therefore, if you show up, your vote will be enhanced exponentially.
See you next week.
July 4, 2018 - 4th of July/Trump and Big Jim
Otto Whittaker wrote the following essay, “I Am the Nation” in 1955 as a public relations advertisement for the Norfolk and Western Railway. The message found in Mr. Whittaker’s essay is still appropriate for this Independence Day, so I have chosen to include it below as part of my weekly column.
“I was born on July 4, 1776, and the Declaration of Independence is my birth certificate. The bloodlines of the world run in my veins, because I offered freedom to the oppressed. I am many things and many people. I am the Nation.
I am 213 million living souls – and the ghost of millions who have lived and died for me. I am Nathan Hale and Paul Revere. I stood at Lexington and fired the shot heard around the world. I am Washington, Jefferson, Patrick Henry. I am John Paul Jones, the Green Mountain Boys and Davy Crockett. I am Lee and Grant and Abe Lincoln.
I remember the Alamo, the Maine and Pearl Harbor. When freedom called I answered and stayed until it was over, over there. I left my heroic dead in Flanders Fields, on the rock of Corregidor, on the bleak slopes of Korea.
I am the Brooklyn Bridge, the wheat fields of Kansas and the granite hills of Vermont. I am the coalfields of the Virginias and Pennsylvania, the fertile lands of the West, the Golden Gate and the Grand Canyon. I am Independence Hall, the Monitor and Merrimac. I am big. I sprawl from the Atlantic to the Pacific – my arms reach out to embrace Alaska and Hawaii – 3 million square miles throbbing with industry. I am more than 5 million farms. I am forest, field, mountain and desert. I am quiet villages – and cities that never sleep.
You can look at me and see Ben Franklin walking down the streets of Philadelphia with his bread loaf under his arm. You can see Betsy Ross with her needle. You can see the lights of Christmas, and hear the strains of “Auld Lang Syne” as the calendar turns.
I am Babe Ruth and the World Series. I am schools and colleges, and churches where my people worship God as they think best. I am a ballot dropped in a box, the roar of a crowd in a stadium and the voice of a choir in a cathedral. I am an editorial in a newspaper and a letter to a congressman.
I am Eli Whitney and Stephen Foster. I am Tom Edison, Albert Einstein and Billy Graham. I am Horace Greeley, Will Rogers and the Wright brothers. I am George Washington Carver, Jonas Salk and Martin Luther King. I am Longfellow, Harriet Beecher Stowe, Walt Whitman and Thomas Paine.”
Today, we have Donald Trump. Our current President is the most unbridled and shoot from the hip President I have witnessed in my lifetime. He is amazingly similar to Alabama’s most colorful and uninhibited governor, Big Jim Folsom. Similar to Folsom, Trump has a childlike disrespect for decorum.
Recently, Trump was making a speech that someone had written for him. He read to a large audience, “This 2018 election is as important as the 2016 election.” He paused and said, “I don’t know who wrote that. I don’t know that I really believe that, and I don’t think y’all think I do either.”
Similarly, Big Jim Folsom in his day was to address the American Textile Association meeting, which was being held in Montgomery. At that time Textiles was Alabama’s largest industry. Ole Big Jim had been in Mobile for a week on a fishing expedition with some of his buddies. As Governor Big Jim was to give a welcoming speech to the Textile executives and dignitaries from throughout the country, the state troopers drove Big Jim hurriedly from Mobile to Montgomery. As he was getting out of the car to walk into the hotel to give his welcoming speech, an aide handed him the speech to give, which Big Jim had not seen.
He got up and started reading the speech and it was full of all kind of statistics. He read, “Alabama has over 200,000 people employed in the textile industry. It accounts for one out of every four jobs. We are the second leading textile state in America.” Big Jim paused in childlike amazement with his mouth wide open and blared out in a loud and astonishing voice, “I’ll be doggone, I didn’t know that!”
Have a safe and happy Independence Day. We will continue next week with the sagas of Alabama politics.
See you next week.
June 27, 2018 - Best races of the year have been for Attorney General and Lt. Governor
The best races of the year have been for Attorney General and Lt. Governor, as well as Agriculture Commissioner and for the 2nd Congressional district.
The Attorney General post is considered the best stepping stone to Governor and U.S. Senator. It is very high profile and prosecutes bad guys who go to jail and cannot vote against you, and you look like a good guy to the rest of the law abiding voters in the state. Therefore, in recent years it has attracted ambitious politicians rather than veteran dedicated prosecutors. These aspirants were novices at being lawyers, much less prosecutors. They sought the position for political posturing rather than the job as the state’s top law enforcer. We have not had a tough former DA since the days of Bill Baxley and Charlie Graddick.
As the race began, there were three major candidates with prosecutorial experience. Troy King had been Attorney General, Alice Martin had been the U.S. Attorney in the Northern District of Alabama and had handled numerous major high-profile convictions. Even the Bentley appointee, Steve Marshall, had been a district attorney.
Troy King had begun the race as the front runner simply because he had some name identification from having been Attorney General. Early polls showed him with around 27 percent with Martin and Marshall at 10-12 and Chess Bedsole at 5-6.
The final results wound up mirroring the amount of money spent by the candidates. There was an amazing correlation to money equals media equals name identification, which results in votes. “Money is the mother’s milk of politics.”
Troy King and Steve Marshall ended up in a dead draw with 28 percent each. Alice Martin got 23 percent and first-time candidate, Chess Bedsole, got a surprising and impressive 21 percent. He got a great vote in Mobile and Birmingham, especially in the silk stocking boxes. His $1 million media buy did not hurt.
The runoff between Troy King and Steve Marshall will be interesting. Again, it will probably boil down to money. Marshall made the runoff by outspending Alice Martin significantly. He used the power of incumbency to strong arm contributions. Both candidates will have to go negative. Marshall is more vulnerable. He campaigned for Obama and was a Democrat only a few years ago. He was appointed DA by Democrat Don Siegelman and was appointed Attorney General by Robert Bentley. These are not good calling cards in a GOP Primary runoff. King will be the favorite on July 17.
The winner will not get a free ride in November. The aforementioned Don Siegelman’s son, Joseph Siegelman, won the Democratic nomination on June 5 and will be a viable opponent in the Fall.
The Lt. Governor position has very little power. However, over the past few decades the Lt. Governor has risen to Governor quite a few times. Therefore, this race has gotten a lot of attention from voters and campaign donors. Twinkle Cavanaugh entered the race as the favorite simply because of name identification. Will Ainsworth and Rusty Glover had very little of that. However, Ainsworth came to the dance with the ingredient to buy name ID. Money is that recipe. He had it and he spent it. Twinkle wound up with 43 percent to Ainsworth’s 37 percent and Glover’s 20 percent.
Twinkle will be a slight favorite in the runoff. However, if Ainsworth spends another million and stays with negative or some say comparison ads, it will be close.
Rick Pate bested Gerald Dial 40 to 30 in the Agriculture Commissioner race despite Dial outspending him with a catchy jingle ad. Alabamians inexplicably have a way of ascertaining who is the farmer in that race. Pate was the only farmer. The Alabama Farmer’s Federation Endorsement helped him in the first primary.
Over 61 percent of the 2nd Congressional District GOP voters voted against incumbent Martha Roby. Bobby Bright may very well win this rematch, which has been years in the making. Bright is well known and liked in the District, especially in the Wiregrass where he was born and raised as well as in Montgomery where he was Mayor for 10 years.
See you next week.
June 20, 2018 - Judicial Races Highlighted – June 5 Primary
This is not just a gubernatorial year in the Heart of Dixie.
We have every constitutional office up for election which includes Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Treasurer, State Auditor and Agriculture Commissioner.
We also have a good many of the State Judicial races on the ballot. We have nine seats on our State Supreme Court. We have five judges on the Court of Criminal Appeals, as well as five seats on the Court of Civil Appeals. All of these judicial posts are held by Republicans. Therefore, it is more than likely safe to assume that the winner of the Republican primary will be elected to a six-year term and can be fitted for their robe, at least by July 17. In fact, Democrats usually do not even field candidates in state judicial races.
Over the past two decades, a prevailing theme has been that women have become favored in state judicial races. In fact, it was safe to say that if you put two candidates on the ballot for a state judicial position, one named John Doe and the other Jane Doe, and neither campaigned or spent any money, Jane Doe would defeat John Doe.
However, for some inexplicable reason, this prevalence reversed itself on June 5 in the Republican primary. In the much-anticipated race for the extremely important Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, position two of the sitting members of the Supreme Court were pitted against each other.
Justice Lyn Stuart, who is the longest serving member on the State Supreme Court, had moved into the Chief Justice role after the departure of Judge Roy Moore. She was running for Chief Justice for the full six-year term. Justice Tom Parker was Roy Moore’s closest ally and is now the most socially conservative activist on the court. Parker and Moore dip from the same well.
Parker chose to challenge Stuart for Chief Justice. The Lyn Stuart vs Tom Parker contest was billed as one of the Titanic battles of the Primary season. Stuart was the darling of the business community. Parker openly was carrying the banner of the social conservatives. Parker bested Stuart 52 percent to 48 percent. Most of Parker’s financial backing came from plaintiff trial lawyers. Parker does have Democratic opposition from Birmingham attorney, Robert Vance, Jr. However, he should win election in November.
Judge Brad Mendheim was facing two prominent female Circuit judges, Debra Jones of Anniston and Sarah Hicks Stewart of Mobile, for Place 1 on the State Supreme Court. Mendheim has been a longtime popular Circuit Judge in Dothan. He was appointed to this Supreme Court seat by Governor Kay Ivey earlier this year. Mendheim decisively outdistanced his female opponents by garnering 43 percent of the vote. He is expected to win election to a full six-year term on the high tribunal on July 17.
Another example of the male uprising in the court contests occurred in the race for a seat on the Court of Civil Appeals. Judge Terri Willingham Thomas, who has been on this court since 2006 and has served with distinction, was shockingly defeated by her unknown male opponent, Chad Hanson.
Pickens County Prosecutor Chris McCool forged to the front in the race for a seat on the Court of Criminal Appeals. He led 43 to 35 over Rich Anderson from the Montgomery/River Region.
In the other court races, the candidate who raised the most money and was able to buy some TV time prevailed.
In the State Supreme Court race in Place 4, two Birmingham attorneys, John Bahakel and Jay Mitchell, were pitted against each other. Mitchell significantly outspent Bahaked and won 73 to 27.
Christy Edwards of Montgomery and Michelle Thomason of Baldwin County are headed for a runoff for a seat on the Court of Civil Appeals.
Richard Minor defeated Riggs Walker overwhelmingly 66 to 34 for a seat on the Court of Criminal Appeals. In the seat for Place 3 on the Court of Criminal Appeals there was yet another display of male dominance in the court races. Bill Cole bested Donna Beaulieu 60 to 40.
On Saturday before the Primary, legendary Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, Clement Clay “Bo” Torbert, passed away at 88 in his beloved City of Opelika. His funeral was on Election Day. Judge Torbert served as Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court for 12 years, 1976 to 1988. He had previously served two terms in the State Senate prior to his election as Chief Justice.
See you next week.
June 13, 2018 - Analysis of Gubernatorial Primaries
Now that the dust has settled from last week’s gubernatorial primaries, let’s analyze the outcome.
Governor Kay Ivey and Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox won very impressive victories. Ms. Ivey beat three well financed opponents without a runoff. She trounced them. She garnered 56 percent of the vote to 25 percent for Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle. Evangelist Scott Dawson and Mobile State Senator Bill Hightower brought up the rear with 13 percent and 5 percent respectively. All three men worked hard and raised money. It was a daunting task to defeat a sitting governor.
The challenge now goes to youthful, vibrant, Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox, who captured the Democratic nomination with a brilliant and impressive victory.
Maddox’s win may have been more impressive than Ivey’s. He had to defeat a field of five. He did so, like Ivey, without a runoff. He also received 55 percent of his primary vote. His closest challenger was former Alabama Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, who got 29 percent. Former Cullman State Representative James Fields ran third in the Democratic primary with 9 percent of the vote.
Polling revealed three months out that Kay Ivey had an insurmountable lead. Remarkably, the same polls had her with the almost identical 30-point lead three weeks out. Her numbers were 45 to Battle’s 12, Dawson 9, and Hightower 4 in mid-February and again as late as mid-May.
The only way to diminish that kind of lead is to go negative. Battle refused to go negative, which negated any chance he had to overtake her. He was the only one of the three with the financial resources to decimate her numbers. He chose to use his campaign largesse to buy name identification. He is probably planning on making another run for governor in 2022. Thus, making this his get acquainted race. Kay will more than likely not be a candidate for reelection in 2022, if indeed she survives the November general election against the Democrat Walt Maddox.
All three dawdled with the scheme to go after Kay’s age, cognizance, and health. The first to use the ploy was Hightower. In a veiled way to draw attention to Kay’s health, he released his medical report. Dawson and Battle followed suit with statements from their doctors saying they were fine. The media took the bait and smelled blood. They caught Kay off guard and off script. She first gave some ambiguous, befuddled response. Then when her campaign handlers had time to survey the scenario, they realized that all the three men did was to get a written statement from their primary physician that simply stated they were in generally good health. Well, Kay could do that. The issue was diffused and laid to rest.
Presidential candidates cannot get by with broad, benign statements that they are fine. They are made to reveal their medical records and history. This is sometimes pretty private and quite revealing. Every medical problem, procedure, medication, and disease contracted is shown. There is a reason that Bill Clinton did not release his medical records.
The gentleman award in the GOP Primary goes to Mayor Tommy Battle and Preacher Scott Dawson in the Governor’s race and State Senator Rusty Glover in the Lt. Governor’s race. They were vibrant and positive. Their sincerity and candor were refreshing. They gave hope that good people will enter Alabama politics. However, they also gave renewed credence to the old adage, “nice guys finish last.” This maxim is especially true in politics.
One of the most interesting stories of this year’s gubernatorial election is that when Kay Ivey was a student at Auburn University 52 years ago, she cut her teeth in politics campaigning for Lurleen Wallace for governor. Lurleen won that race going away. In 1966, Governor Lurleen Wallace defeated 10 male opponents without a runoff. She is our only elected female governor in our state’s history. Ironically, if Kay is elected in November, she will be our second elected female governor.
Kay Ivey also made a special friend at Auburn. She and Jimmy Rane met and bonded at the Loveliest Village on the Plain. Rane, better known as the Yellow Man from his commercials, founded Great Southern Wood Company and has forged it into one of America’s great companies. Rane runs his company out of Abbeville and still resides in his native Henry County. Rane and Ivey have remained fast friends over the years. He has been an integral part of her campaign. He has been her largest personal contributor. In addition, she used Rane’s Great Southern jet to fly around the state on her final day of campaigning.
See you next week.