September 18, 2019 - Alabama Unemployment Rates at Remarkably Low Record-Breaking Numbers
During the late summer, it was revealed that Alabama’s economy set records for the number of people employed along with the lowest unemployment rate in decades. Figures released in August had the state with a record-breaking 3.3% unemployment percentage.
The numbers indicate a continued upward trend with 57,000 more people employed than at the same time a year ago.
Gov. Ivey said, “The effort we are making to bring jobs and employers to Alabama is working.” She further stated, “We are consistently improving our workforce and preparing Alabama for the future.”
The entire U.S. economy is on a continued upswing that began with the Trump Administration. However, Alabama’s job growth rate has outpaced the national rate for six of the first seven months of 2019.
Gov. Ivey can rightly claim credit for these outstanding figures. She and her Chief of Staff and right arm, Jo Bonner, have made job growth and economic development their primary focus.
It has paid off and there are a lot of other fish on the line that Ivey and Bonner are about to reel in during the next year. Four sectors are setting the pace for the current employment increase. They are Transportation, Equipment Manufacturing, Motor Vehicle Manufacturing, Leisure and Hospitality, and Computer Systems Design.
The counties with the lowest unemployment rates are Shelby, Marshall, Elmore and Baldwin. Counties with the highest unemployment rates are Wilcox, Greene, and Perry.
All summer long there was a furor over a toll road in Baldwin and Mobile Counties. The debate raged over a plan by the state to build a toll road for the Interstate 10 Mobile River Bridge and Bayway project. Not surprisingly a poll indicated that 77% of registered voters living in Mobile and Baldwin Counties did not support the toll plan for the Interstate 10 passageway plan.
This is not a jaw dropping fact, who wants to pay $6.00 toll fee each way each day to work. The folks who commute from burgeoning Baldwin County to work in Mobile need a road/bridge. However, the state cannot afford to build the very expensive new road without a toll.
The Baldwin Countians thought maybe people outside of the coastal area would have sympathy for them and take up their cause. Good luck with that thinking. The rest of the state could not care less. It is a local problem. The good folks in Sand Mountain are concerned about their own roads and bridges. They do not want the people in Baldwin-Mobile taking their road money. Thus the old adage, “All politics is local.”
Even though all politics is local, we do have a national Presidential election upcoming. It is here. The race is on. Our presidential preference primary is March 3, 2020. We will not only vote for president that day, there are a good many other races that will be interesting.
The first and second congressional districts are open seats. Rep. Martha Roby is not running for reelection in the second, and Rep. Bradley Byrne is leaving his safe seat in the first to run for the U.S. Senate. They are both Republican seats.
In addition to the presidential and congressional seats, the marquee event in the state will be the race for the U.S. Senate. This is the Republican Senate seat held by Jeff Sessions for 20 years.
An anomaly Democrat, Doug Jones, is currently temporarily in the seat. The winner of the Republican Primary in March and runoff in April will ultimately recapture the seat for the GOP. The leading contenders are Bradley Byrne, Secretary of State John Merrill, Former Chief Justice Roy Moore, and Journeyman football coach Tommy Tuberville.
President Donald Trump is extremely popular among Alabama Republican voters, and indeed, among all Republican voters nationwide, especially southerners. Even Senate Republican Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, is running for reelection to his Kentucky Senate seat, tying himself to Trump. He is running a campaign labeled the Trump-McConnell 2020 ticket. He is claiming to be the President’s wingman in Washington to his blue grass constituency.
Even though the federal race for President, U.S. Senate and U.S. House will headline the 2020 ballot in the Heart of Dixie. Let me remind you again, that all politics are local.
You cannot get any more local than County Commissioner. Most of the County Commission seats in the state are up for election as well as State School Board seats in Districts 1, 3, 5 and 7. Gov. Ivey’s proposal to not elect these School Board seats but to appoint them will be on the March 3 ballot. Statewide, there are two judicial seats on the State Supreme Court on the ballot as well as two seats on Alabama’s Court of Criminal Appeals as well as PSC President.
See you next week.
September 11, 2019 - The Omission of the Citizenship Question on the 2020 Census Questionnaire Essentially Assures Alabama the Loss of a Congressional Seat
The upcoming 2020 census is extremely critical in Alabama and the rest of the states in the nation, as well. The census affects the number of seats a state has in the U.S. Congress and ultimately the number of Electoral College Votes you have for president. Also, very importantly, the amount of federal funds the state receives.
Alabama is growing incrementally, but not as fast as other states. Especially our neighboring states of Georgia and Florida and certainly not as much as California and Texas. Therefore, the bottom line is we are projected to lose a Congressional District to one of the aforementioned states.
We currently have seven seats in Congress. We will more than likely go to six. The census will be in 2020. We will lose our seat in the 2022 elections.
Our U.S. Constitution outlines that the Census be taken every 10 years. The language calling for the census states, “People are to be counted.” Therefore, the question becomes are just U.S. citizens counted or are citizens and illegal aliens both counted.
Obviously, for political reasons, Republicans and more importantly the Republican Trump administration are vehemently in favor of counting only U.S. Citizens. Liberals in California want illegals counted.
The trump administration through his Commerce Department Secretary, William Ross, asked the Census Bureau to include the citizenship question on the census form. This question of inclusion has been on the table since 2018. It has been pending in the Supreme Court. In June the U.S. Supreme Court in a 5-to-4 decision ruled that the question should not be asked.
This SCOTUS decision is bad for Alabama and other Republican states. The ruling to not include the citizenship question pretty much assures that Alabama will lose a congressional seat. We may have anyway, however, this hammers the final nail in the coffin. Illegal immigrants in California will be counted and our seat will be ceded to them.
Even though the official U.S. Census is taken every decade, the U.S. Census Bureau operates daily and gives preliminary updates on census trends. That is how, as early as four years ago, they were projecting the loss of a seat in Alabama. The loss of the citizenship question is just the coup de gras.
The Census Bureau has recently also released new city population estimates that cover the period of July 2017 through July 2018. In Alabama, the city estimates show that Huntsville continues on a fast track towards becoming Alabama’s largest city, while Birmingham, Montgomery and Mobile continue to drift lower. The two major college towns, Tuscaloosa and Auburn, are growing rapidly as are several cities in Baldwin County.
The once Magic City of Birmingham is losing population. However, the metropolitan Jefferson-Shelby County areas are steady. The migration of Jefferson countians to the suburbs of Shelby is a trend that is not new, and will likely continue.
The same trend is prevalent in the Mobile-Baldwin metro area. The population of Mobile is simply transferring to Baldwin County.
Montgomery continues to steadily lose people. In the last few decades the population has moved to Autauga and Elmore counties. Indications are that some of Montgomery’s flight may be to Auburn.
Tuscaloosa’s growth is significant, primarily due to the growth of the University of Alabama. Tuscaloosa has added 11,000 people since 2010 and Auburn has added 13,900.
When you include the entire Madison-Huntsville-Limestone metropolitan area in the equation, the growth of the Huntsville metropolitan area is amazing. When you add the entire Tennessee Valley and Marshall-Guntersville Lake area into the parameters, the growth is tremendous. The growth in the Huntsville area is real. Whereas the metro areas of Birmingham and Mobile are simply shifting their populations to Shelby and Baldwin counties.
If you think the Huntsville-Limestone-Tennessee Valley has grown in the past 10 years, you ain’t seen nothing yet. It will grow exponentially over the next decade. Given the myriad of major economic development and manufacturing announcements already announced, it will be one of the hottest and most prosperous areas in the nation in the next decade.
In addition, Senator Richard Shelby will probably continue to be Chairman of the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee for three more years, which will allow the Redstone Arsenal and high technology federal advancements to prosper. He has recently announced that the largest FBI headquarters in America will be placed in Huntsville.
Folks, it is obvious that the future growth and prosperity in Alabama will be in Huntsville and North Alabama.
See you next week.
September 4, 2019 - Two Open Congressional Seats in the Heart of Dixie in 2020
Governor Kay Ivey has had a very successful first year as governor. One of the coups she pulled off was getting the legislature to pass legislation granting the governor the power to appoint the Board of Pardons and Paroles. The new law will give her all the new appointments to the Parole Board. Previously, the three-member Board picked the director.
The new law went into effect on September 1, 2019 and Gov. Ivey wasted no time selecting the new director. She appointed longtime political figure, former Attorney General and former Mobile County Circuit Judge Charlie Graddick.
Ivey also supported a measure that would make the state school board appointed rather than elected. This proposal will have to be approved by Alabama voters in next year’s election. This one may have tougher sledding. Alabamians are reluctant to give up their rights to vote for their public officials.
Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate is continuing a great summer political tradition in Montgomery. Pate, who is Alabama’s 27th Commissioner of Agriculture, hosted the 9th Annual Tomato Sandwich luncheon. The menu included homegrown Wiregrass tomatoes and corn on the cob. It also includes lots of politics. Some of those in attendance were former Agriculture Commissioner and now State Treasurer John McMillan, Secretary of State John Merrill, State Auditor Jim Ziegler, and State Senators Will Barfoot and Tom Whatley.
Second District Congresswoman Martha Roby (R-Montgomery) made a surprise announcement in late July that she was not going to seek reelection to a sixth two-year term next year. Roby was considered safe in the seat after withstanding a challenging election year in 2018. She drew significant opposition in the GOP Primary after her 2016 announcement that she was not supporting Donald Trump. Even though she received less votes than most of the other Republican members of the Alabama House delegation, she did survive and would have had smooth sailing and a long tenure in the House. She was on good committees and was one of only 13 female Republican congresswomen in the U.S. House. Therefore, she was a darling in the eyes of the House leadership and had a bright future in Congress.
My guess is that she simply burned out on the demanding life of Congress where you are constantly campaigning and raising money, flying back and forth to Washington and actually doing the job of voting your district’s wishes and handling constituents’ work. She also has two young children and a husband who has a successful law career.
She made the right decision for herself. She will have a much more enjoyable and rewarding life, and if, she practices law or lobbies, a much more lucrative lifestyle.
This leaves two open Republican seats. This second district seat, which encompasses all of the Wiregrass, parts of Montgomery and the burgeoning counties of Elmore and Autauga, will be a wide-open and very contested and interesting race. It is a Republican district.
The early favorite to win the seat is Dothan businessman Jeff Coleman. He has been very involved civic wise in the Wiregrass and statewide for years. He will also have unlimited personal funds and will spend them.
Whoever wins the second district seat will be subject to an alteration in the district. We are expected to lose a seat after the 2020 census. Most observers expect this second district to merge into a portion of the third congressional district. It will more than likely pick up the Auburn-Opelika-Lee County area.
In addition to the second district open seat, the first congressional district is a battle royale. Bradley Byrne has vacated this congressional seat to make a race for the U.S. Senate. A trio of stellar candidates are vying to be the congressman from the Mobile-Baldwin area. It will definitely remain a Republican seat. Vying for the GOP nomination are State Representative Chris Pringle, former State Senator Bill Hightower, and Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl. This one will probably be more interesting than the second district.
2020 is shaping up to be a good political year in the Heart of Dixie. The primaries are early on March 3, 2020.
See you next week.
August 28, 2019 - The Summer of 1969
As we say goodbye to the summer of 2019, allow me to reminisce with you and indeed commemorate more than likely a summer exactly 50 years ago that was undoubtedly the most momentous summer in American history – The Summer of 1969.
It is amazing what all occurred in America during the last six-weeks of the Summer of 1969. Richard Nixon was in his first year as president. He had escalated the never-ending Vietnam War and he had heightened the Tet offensive. The war was finally heading in our direction. A July assault on North Vietnam caused heavy casualties to the Viet Cong. Ho Chi Minh would die in Hanoi on September 2.
The war which had raged for five to six years had caused major upheavals and discord and protests at virtually every college campus in the country. It had spearheaded and somewhat created the hippie culture among a vast throng of young people throughout America.
In the Summer of 1969, every hippie in America gathered in rural New York at an event called Woodstock. Woodstock was a music festival that attracted more than 500,000 people. Movies and songs have been developed over the past 50 years simply entitled Woodstock. The music festival was held from August 15 to 18 in the late Summer of 1969. It probably would be accurate to say that a good many hallucinatory drugs were partaken by the patrons during the four day lovefest.
An unbelievable lineup of musical talent sang and played at Woodstock during the four days of love, drugs, and music. Many of them were virtually unknown at that time. The list of musical icons included Jimi Hendrix, Joan Baez, Bob Dylan, Santana, The Grateful Dead, Credence Clearwater Revival, Janis Joplin, Sly and the Family Stone, The Who, Jefferson Airplane, Joe Cocker, Sha Na Na, Crosby Stills Nash and Young, and Blood, Sweat and Tears. If that ain’t a lineup, you don’t know the history of American culture over the last 50 years. Woodstock was an iconic event and it happened in August of 1969.
Woodstock was a cultural storm. However, occurring at the same time, August 15-18 in 1969 was a real storm which hit the gulf coast. Hurricane Camille hit the Mississippi and Louisiana coast as a major Category 5 devastating and deadly hurricane. It was the second most intense tropical storm on record to strike the United States. As it raged toward the coastal borders it intensified to a major category 5. It made landfall in Pass Christian and Waveland, Mississippi early on August 18, 1969. Camille caused tremendous damage. It flattened nearly everything along the coast of Mississippi and Louisiana. Camille killed 259 people and caused $1.44 billion in damages. That would amount to $10 billion in damages in today’s dollars. It happened exactly 50 years ago. Camille is considered one of the most impactful and devastating hurricanes in U.S. history, only surpassed by one known as the Labor Day hurricane of 1935.
The most momentous event of the Summer of 1969 was the Apollo landing on the moon by American astronauts on July 20, 1969. This event was quite celebrated by our national media commemorating the 50th Anniversary of this summer.
The lunar landing on the moon was watched live on television by a good many Americans with great pride. Most people remember exactly where they were and what they were doing when America put a man on the moon. Most Americans are familiar with the words, “That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.” Those were the words spoken by Astronaut Neal Armstrong when he took man’s first step on the moon in the Summer of 1969.
Not to be outdone, the Summer of ’69 was the mother lode of some of Hollywood’s greatest movies. Get this folks, being released and shown that summer was “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid,” starring Paul Newman and Robert Redford, “Easy Rider,” with Jack Nicholson, “Midnight Cowboy” and “True Grit,” starring John Wayne. He won the Academy Award as Best Actor of 1969 for his performance. “Hello Dolly,” took Broadway by storm.
On August 9, the sensational murder of actress, Sharon Tate, at the hands of Charles Manson occurred in Beverly Hills, California.
The Summer of 1969 was truly one for the record books. It was 50 years ago, can you believe it?
See you next week.
August 21, 2019 - Hot Political Summer in the City of Montgomery
It has been a long hot summer in Montgomery, and I do not mean at the Capitol or Statehouse, but in the City of Montgomery itself.
There is a heated and pivotal mayor’s race. It has been considered a foregone conclusion that Montgomery will elect their first African American mayor this year. It is probably about eight years later than expected. Montgomery has been a majority minority city for a decade. It is well over 60 percent today.
A good many Montgomery citizens have moved to suburban enclaves, like Prattville, Wetumpka, Millbrook, and now Pike Road. Most of the young families with school age children have fled for a school system. However, there are still a significant number of older people living in the Capitol City. It is a tried and true fact that older folks vote. These older Montgomerians probably will not vote for a black person for anything, much less for the mayor of their beloved city.
Essentially, a very weak school system is the main ingredient for the death of a city. It is the driving force for real estate values. Montgomery home values have dropped in the last decade as much as any city its size in America.
The racial division in Montgomery is also more pronounced than other cities in Alabama because of the decades long feud between former mayor, Emory Folmar, and longtime African American and AEA/ADC and former City Councilman, Joe Reed. This daily racial media battle raged for years with both men feeding their popularity in their communities by the barrage of racist rhetoric.
The demise of the school system has been enhanced by the abysmally low local property tax. They do not have the funds to have a decent school system if they even wanted one. Therefore, Montgomery is slowly dying.
The mayoral candidates will all talk about the education and crime problems in the city, however, the problems are probably too pronounced to resolve.
All of the candidates are well-qualified. They are all male. This is surprising since the largest group of voters in the city are black females.
Artur Davis, the former congressman, is making his second run for mayor. He ran against current mayor, Todd Strange, four years ago.
Veteran Montgomery County Commissioner, Elton Dean, is offering to move from Chairman of County Commission to Mayor. However, his campaign seems lackadaisical and he may be ambivalent about making an almost lateral move.
J.C. Love is a young Montgomery attorney who is running a sophisticated modern-day social media campaign. He is attracting millennials. Unfortunately, young people do not vote.
Retired General, Ed Crowell, is a distinguished erudite gentleman that the Montgomery Chamber of Commerce crowd would like to see lead Montgomery. They believe, and rightfully so, that Crowell would project a good image for Montgomery.
The aforementioned Joe Reed’s son, Steven Reed, is the current Probate Judge of Montgomery County. He is quieter and more deliberative than his father. Most political observers point to young Steven Reed as the front runner in the race.
Montgomery Businessman and television station owner, David Woods, is a white candidate who is giving the race his full commitment. He is spending a good amount of his personal money and as I said earlier, the older folks vote. This probably assures him a place in the runoff.
My guess is that when the votes are counted on August 27, David Woods and Steven Reed will be pitted against each other in an October 8 runoff.
Ironically, on the day of the August 27 Montgomery mayoral primary, there will be a runoff vote for the State Legislative seat in Montgomery held by the late Dimitri Polizos. House seat 74 in the City of Montgomery has been vacant since the death of the popular restaurateur, Polizos.
Former school board member, Charlotte Meadows, and Montgomery attorney, Michael Fritz, are headed for a runoff on that same day. Charlotte Meadows led the six-person field in the first primary garnering 44 percent of the vote to Fritz’s 24 percent. She is expected to waltz to victory.
See you next week.
August 14, 2019 - The Story of Floyd Mann
One of the legendary figures in Alabama political lore is Floyd Mann.
Colonel Mann was Public Safety Director for two governors. His lifetime friend, John Patterson, made him his Public Safety Director while he was governor, 1958-1962 and Governor Albert Brewer chose Colonel Mann to be his Director while he was governor, 1968-1970.
The Public Safety Director in those days was referred to as the Head of the State Troopers. It was during the Patterson administration that Mann made his mark in Alabama history.
The hot winds of segregation began to blow after the Brown v. Board of Education decision in 1954. They had reached a crescendo inferno in the Heart of Dixie by 1958.
There were buses of freedom riders who bravely traveled to Alabama and other Deep South states advocating for integration in the state and region.
They first arrived in Anniston and were met by a horde of Calhoun County Kluxers and would have been beaten to death if they had not hurriedly escaped before even departing their bus. The state troopers and every police system in the state were alerted that the Freedom Riders narrowly avoided death and that their bus was headed to Montgomery and that they needed protection.
Not surprisingly, Gov. Patterson and all the white law enforcement communities ignored the plea for help and security.
When the Freedom Riders arrived at the old Greyhound Bus Station behind the Federal Court House in Montgomery, they were met and surrounded by 50 to 75 white citizens who had baseball bats ready to welcome the Freedom Riders to the Cradle of the Confederacy. There was not one Montgomery policeman anywhere in sight.
Colonel Mann got word of the scenario. He immediately jumped into the Head of Public Safety Trooper car and drove 90 miles an hour down Dexter Avenue with his siren blaring. He wheeled into the parking lot and pulled his revolver out of his gun belt and placed it into the temple of the biggest, meanest, slicked backed, undershirted, baseball bat holder who was waiting at the door of the bus for the Freedom Riders. He said, “I’ll give ya folks five minutes to all clear out of here or I’ll start shooting with this fellow and we will take names later for families.” Mann saved about a dozen Freedom Riders lives that day. They decided to not even exit their bus and to get the Hell out of Alabama.
Let me share a great story that Colonel Mann personally shared with me.
Colonel Mann was destined to be a legendary lawman. He became Chief of Police of Opelika at an amazingly young age. Opelika is not a small town and he was only 30. One day, one of his officers approached him and said, “Chief we’ve got a problem you need to know about.” He continued, “You know officer ‘Big Un’? About midnight every Saturday night he comes into the station with some little scrawny hobo he has arrested down at the depot. They are always badly beaten up. Big Un weighs about 285 pounds and I just don’t believe these hobos are fool enough to give him any resistance. Big Un is beating these folks up for the fun of it.”
Mann agreed that if that was happening he would handle it. The following Saturday night about 30 minutes before the freight train was due in, Mann drove down near the railroad station, parked his car some distance away and then hid in the shadows. Sure enough, minutes before the train was to arrive, a police car pulled up and out stepped Big Un with his billy club in his hand.
When the train came to a stop, Big Un began walking alongside the freight cars, sliding the doors open looking for hobos. He opened a door and lying right in front of him was a man. Big Un slapped him across the head and ordered him out of the car. The hobo turned ever so slowly and as he did, he laid the barrel of a pistol between the eyes of Big Un. The policeman froze in terror.
“Mr. Policeman the hobo said slowly, I’ve got a momma in heaven, a papa in hell, and a sick sister in Columbus, Georgia. I aim to see one of them tonight.” Big Un barely got the words out of his mouth and responded as he retreated, “You tell yo sister I hope she gets to feeling better.”
See you next week.
August 7, 2019 - The Phenix City Story
There are very few Alabamians left who remember the 1950’s story of Phenix City, Alabama. After World War II, a good many of the military soldiers, enlisted men, stayed on for a while. A host of them were stationed at Ft. Benning in Columbus, Georgia. As many of you know, Columbus, Georgia and Phenix City, Alabama are essentially the same city. They are only separated by a bridge and the Chattahoochee River.
Phenix City figured that these soldiers needed some entertainment. Well, they got it in Phenix City. Our border city became the poor man’s Las Vegas and Guadalajara, Mexico rolled into one. Phenix City became known as the most sinful place in America. It was openly run by a tough redneck mafia that made the New York Mafia look like choir boys.
At least the New York Mafia tried to subvert their illegal activities. Phenix City was wide-open. Every public official and law enforcement officer in town was on the Mafia’s payroll. The entire town, including Main Street had casinos and brothels. There were so many illegal slot machines in operation that they outnumbered Las Vegas. These slot machines and prostitutes lured the soldiers across the bridge to be preyed upon.
The entire state was embarrassed by the Phenix City story. One of the few local, honest attorneys in Russell-Tallapoosa Counties, Albert Patterson, ran for Attorney General of Alabama with a platform to cleanup Phenix City. Patterson won the statewide race due to his stance. Three days later the Phenix City Mafia gunned him down, openly assassinating the newly elected Attorney General of Alabama.
This bold, brazen murder by the Phenix City crowd was the straw that broke the camel’s back. The Governor and President declared martial law and they put a clamp down on the whole town. They put all of the public officials in the city jail. A very few escaped to Texas and others were found floating in the Chattahoochee River. Federal officials dredged the river and found over 200 skeletons of victims who had tried to cross the Phenix City Mafia. The sheriff and a deputy sheriff named Albert Fuller were convicted of the murder of Albert Patterson.
His son, John Patterson, was appointed to fill the term of his father as Attorney General. John Patterson served as Alabama’s Attorney General from 1954-1958. Patterson was elected Governor of Alabama in 1958, in no small part to the sympathy Alabamians had over his father’s assassination.
The man John Patterson beat in that 1958 race for Governor was none other than George C. Wallace. Both Wallace and Patterson were making their first race for governor, but about the time that race started a movie came out entitled “The Phenix City Story.” It told the story of Albert Patterson’s murder at the hands of the corrupt thug mafia. The sympathy for Patterson was too much for Wallace to overcome. Patterson handed Wallace his only gubernatorial defeat in 1958.
The gambling issue lay dormant in the state for decades, primarily due to church influence. However, there were local controversies over alcohol sales.
Around the late 1990’s, Macon and Greene counties voters passed upfront Constitutional amendments that allowed for a new invention called electronic bingo. Gov. Bob Riley, at the behest of the Choctaw Indian casinos out of Mississippi, closed down the lucrative, prosperous Victoryland Casino in Macon County. The Choctaw Indian gambling syndicate was Riley’s largest campaign contributor. He used his gubernatorial power to do their bidding.
The legendary outlaws, Abramoff and Scanlan, went to Washington about this time and bought the rights for Indian Reservations to have legal gambling on their native lands. Washington hearings revealed that the satchels full of money that Scanlan and Abramoff brought to Washington to pass this privileged monopoly was filled by Las Vegas Casinos.
Abramoff and Scanlan went to jail, but the Indian casinos have their monopoly on Bingo betting. The Alabama Poarch Creek Indians have flourished for the last 15 years with a monopoly on electronic bingo. They have piled up a lot of cash and made large political contributions to Alabama legislators.
Make no doubt about it, the lottery bill that failed recently in the legislature was the Poarch Creek Casino syndicate’s bill. It was an archaic paper ballot lottery that would have prohibited any private tax paying Alabama operations from competing with the Poarch Creek monopoly on electronic bingo.
See you next week.
July 31, 2019 - Those Who Bake the Pie Get to Eat It
Governor Kay Ivey’s first legislative session of the quadrennium was very successful. Her prowess at getting things accomplished with this Legislature has been remarkable.
She knows what she is doing. It should not be surprising given her background and experience.
Kay Ivey has been around state government for most of her adult life. She has dealt with the Legislature for over four decades.
Her adroitness in the passage of the Infrastructure package was similar to the legislative success enjoyed by Governor George Wallace in his prime years. Like Wallace, Ivey knows how to reward her friends and punish her enemies.
Those legislators, who were instrumental in passage, are already seeing the fruits of their labors. There is an old adage in politics that says, “Those that bake the pie get to eat it.”
Governor Ivey has already announced and plans are being made to begin work in districts of the “Rebuild Alabama” leaders. Representative Bill Poole (R-Tuscaloosa), is getting McFarland Boulevard in Tuscaloosa expanded. Senator Clyde Chambliss (R-Prattville), is getting Highway 82 between Prattville and Tuscaloosa completed.
The Huntsville-Madison County and Limestone County delegation was unanimous in support of “Rebuild Alabama.” They will get everything they need to improve access for the new Mazda-Toyota plant. This will include six-laning I-565 in Huntsville as well as improving Limestone County I-65 interchanges. This project was helped by Speaker Mac McCutcheon.
The four-laning of highway 411 through Cherokee and Etowah counties was also announced by the Governor. This was a plus for Representative Ginny Shaver and Senator Andrew Jones.
The Wiregrass will be taken care of under the “Rebuild Alabama” program, also. They have needs that have not been met since Big Jim Folsom built the Ross Clark Circle around Dothan. Every Wiregrass legislator voted for the Governor’s “Rebuild Alabama” including Senators Donnie Chesteen and Jimmy Holley as well as House members Steve Clouse, Paul Lee, Dexter Grimsley, Jeff Sorrells, Rhett Marquis, and Wes Allen.
The state dock’s expansion will be invaluable for not only the Mobile-Baldwin area but for the entire state. Our automakers like Mercedes, Hyundai, and Honda will be able to ship their vehicles within state. Our poultry farmers will have more available markets. This aspect appealed to North Alabama legislative leaders like Representative Nathaniel Ledbetter and Senators Steve Livingston, Clay Scofield and Garlan Gudger. These fellows will also get some much anticipated road projects for their Sand Mountain and North Alabama areas.
Every Republican legislator from the Mobile-Baldwin County area voted for passage. Representatives Chris Pringle and Victor Gaston were the whips in the House. State Senators David Sessions, Jack Williams and Chris Elliott spearheaded the effort in the Senate.
Working quietly behind the scenes to make sure that the docks expansion was part of the “Rebuild Alabama” program was former Mobile-Baldwin Congressman, Jo Bonner. This quiet southern gentleman is a power to be reckoned with in this administration. He worked hard and alone with his big sister, Kay Ivey, to put this plan together. They worked the Legislature together, diligently day and night to secure passage, and they did it the right way. The best decision and accomplishment Governor Kay Ivey achieved is getting Congressman Jo Bonner to be her Chief of Staff and right hand.
In addition, our coal industry will be helped immensely by the docks expansion. The outstanding Walker County delegation of Senator Greg Reed and Representatives Connie Rowe and Tim Wadsworth worked for passage for this reason and other important road projects are in the works for their area.
Governor Ivey has called for a Special Election for the vacant House Seat 42. This Seat was held by longtime Representative Jimmy Martin of Clanton, who recently passed away. The Primary will be August 20.
It is definitely a Republican district and has always been a Chilton County seat, but it may move to Autauga. The population of Autauga has grown so much that almost exactly the same number of voters are in Autauga as Chilton. There are three candidates in the Primary from Chilton and they are all beating each other up. The lone candidate from Autauga, Van Smith, is favored to win the Seat. He will more than likely prevail. He is extremely popular, qualified and connected. Smith has the endorsement of ALFA and the business interests in the state. He is a longtime ALFA and rural co-op board member. It is still a quasi-rural district.
See you next week.
July 24, 2019 - 2020 U.S. Senate Race
The long hot summer has brought some crystallization to the 2020 U.S. Senate race. This seat is the Senate Seat held by Senator Jeff Sessions for almost two decades. He unwittingly made a strange and probably very regrettable decision to join President Donald J. Trump’s administration as attorney general. Very few U. S. Senators with 20 years seniority would leave their permanent seats in the illustrious, powerful and elite United States Senate for a temporary four year at best tenure in a tumultuous and transient cabinet post.
Trump is tempestuous at the least and still likes to think of himself as the host of his TV reality show, The Apprentice, who famously says, “You’re fired!” Trump has recently tweeted that Sessions appointment as Attorney General was the most regrettable appointment that he has made. You can more than likely ascertain that Jeff Sessions feels the same way about his decision to leave his safe senate seat for a shot as Trump’s Attorney General. However, you could safely bet that the reserved, squeaky clean, Dudley-Do-Right, Eagle Scout Sessions will not do any tweeting, or betting, on anything, much less his Trump controversy.
Therefore, the biggest question regarding the 2020 Senate race in the Heart of Dixie is would Jeff Sessions run to get his seat back? The answer is that he considered it. He was encouraged to run by the Washington Republican Establishment, including Mitch McConnell. However, he has decided that at 72 he will not seek his seat.
My thoughts are that he could have and probably would have won. However, his departure from the race makes for some good theater.
It is assumed that the winner of next year’s March 3rd GOP Primary will win the six-year senate term. Alabama is one if not the most Republican states in America. With it being a presidential election year, Alabama will probably vote 65 to 35 for Donald Trump. The GOP senate candidate can expect to mirror that landslide or at least win by a 60/40 margin, with maybe one exception.
That exception would be if Judge Roy Moore for some reason were to be the Republican nominee, then that would give the Democrat, probably Doug Jones, a possible opening.
Roy Moore begins the race with overwhelmingly negative name identification. He has 2 to 1 negative to positive polling numbers. Those numbers are not going to improve. Believe you me, the National Republican, Mitch McConnell, Establishment money is going to pour in here to run negative ads against old Moore to make sure he is not the GOP standard bearer in the Fall of 2020. When they get through with him, his horse Sassy will even have negative numbers.
My guess is that Judge Roy Moore’s best days are behind him and that he will not be the GOP nominee. However, he still has a hard core of support that will stay with him come hell or high water. He will probably get 18 percent of the primary vote and that will place him in a strong third place finish.
My early prediction is that First District Congressman, Bradley Byrne and Secretary of State, John Merrill will ultimately be in a runoff. Either would easily beat the Democrat in November 2020.
Bradley Byrne dedicated himself to this race over a year ago. He jumped in and made a full commitment. He has been campaigning at full throttle for 15 months. There is a tried and true adage that applies in politics that the early bird gets the worm. Indeed, he has used his early dedication to the race to raise significant early money and some good commitments.
However, Byrne’s initial polling numbers are not great. The surprising aspect to the internal polling reveals that his 2010 Governor’s race does not give him name identification. The good side for him is that his negatives are also low. Folks have obviously forgotten he ran for governor in 2010.
Most astute state inside observers believe that Secretary of State John Merrill is the man to beat in this race. He is simply the hardest working retail politician in the state. He has a grassroots organization in all 67 counties. He has gotten his traction the old fashioned way with hard work and a love for one-on-one politicking. He will outwork and out organize all the candidates in the race combined. Even though he has built his organization the old fashioned, hardworking way, he understands the new medium of networking and campaigning through social media.
It will be fun to watch.
See you next week.
July 17, 2019 - Alabama is a Republican State but U.S. is probably a Democratic Nation
The 2020 Presidential Election year has already begun. It usually begins on Labor Day of the year prior to the Election. However, in recent decades the parade has started early. They really are four-year caravans. They begin the day after the President is sworn in.
Indeed, President Trump never shut down his campaign organization, He essentially has never stopped campaigning. He loves to campaign. He loves to entertain. That is really what he was before he was President and that is what he has been as President, an entertainer. He treats the Presidency as though it is an extension and continuation of his television game show. As long as he is the center of attention he is happy.
Trump is amazingly similar to our two most colorful and prominent Alabama political icons, Big Jim Folsom and George Wallace. He is just as uninhibited and disarming as Big Jim was with the same irreverence for protocol and decorum. He is similar to Wallace in that he really likes campaigning and prefers campaigning to governing. Wallace really didn’t want to govern, he just liked running and getting elected governor.
Speaking of Wallace, he liked to run for President also. He ran several times. He usually ran under some third-party banner. As he ran around the country running as a third-party state’s rights candidate, he would proclaim that there is not a dimes worth of difference in the national Democratic and Republican parties. However, even Wallace could not say that with a straight face today.
Folks, there are a lot of philosophical differences in the national Republican and Democratic parties. They really should change their names to the Conservative and Liberal parties. The Republican Party is extremely conservative and the Democratic Party is very liberal. This extreme philosophy by each party is what has driven people into different political corners and is the reason for the political polarization of American politics.
The electronic media and news networks have further driven and enhanced this polarization. Fox News Network is simply the network that Republicans watch. CNN and MSNBC could be and people assume they are appendages of the national Democratic Party. The CBS Stephen Colbert show is unashamedly the hate Donald Trump show. They should change the title to that name.
The two-party machinery and nomination process is designed to choose a presidential contender as their nominee that is from the extreme segment of the party. This is especially true in the Democratic ranks. Therefore, the probability of a left wing socialist like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren being the nominee is likely.
This does not bode well for our anomaly junior Democratic U.S. Senator Doug Jones. He will be running along with one of his liberal Democratic buddies. Jones has organized and voted lockstep with the Democrats since his arrival last year, which is what most folks who know Jones expected. He is a real national, liberal Democrat. He has always been and will always be a Democrat.
In Jones’s defense, he is not a demagogue. He will not change his stripes or beliefs to get elected. That was evident with his vote against the conservative Trump Supreme Court appointee, Brett Kavanaugh. Jones was the only Southern Senator to vote against Trump.
Indeed, Jones is the only Democratic Senator in the Deep South. His being on the ticket with the Democratic Presidential candidate in November 2020 in the Heart of Dixie, makes his chance of being elected slim-to-none. It would be a surprise if he gets 40% even with a ton of left-wing money pouring into the state on his behalf.
Last year’s General Election proved we are a Red Republican State. One of the most Republican in the Nation. Donald Trump, or for that matter any Republican, will carry Alabama next year. Mickey Mouse would carry Alabama 60 to 40 if he were the nominee. However, Donald Duck would carry California and New York if he were the Democratic nominee. Folks, I hate to break it to you, but California and New York have more electoral votes than we do.
It was just as much an anomaly that Donald Trump carried Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and even Ohio and Florida, as it was that Doug Jones won in Alabama. As we look to the 2020 elections, it is evident that Alabama is a Republican state. However, the United States is probably a Democratic nation.
See you next week.