January 15, 2020 - Methodists have Dominated High Offices in Alabama History
Even though there are more Baptists than Methodists in Alabama, historically Methodists have held more of the prominent political posts in the Heart of Dixie. If you look closely at these leaders’ lives, a good many of our leaders have been sons of Methodist ministers.
The most famous Methodist minister in the state over the past 50 years has been the Rev. John Ed Mathison of Montgomery. He has been the confidant and counselor to a great many of Alabama’s leaders, as well as being the greatest inspirational and dynamic speaker of our time. John Ed founded and pastored the Frazer United Methodist church in Montgomery. He shepherded his flock in the Capitol City for 36 years.
His younger brother is a remarkable man, very similar to John Ed. The Rev. George Mathison served numerous churches in Alabama. However, he is best known for being the minister of the First Methodist Church of Auburn, where he was their beloved pastor for 26 years. His flock referred to him as Brother George.
John Ed and George were born to be Methodist ministers. Their father was a renowned Methodist minister. They were both athletes in college. John Ed and George are both outstanding tennis players.
The First Methodist Church of Dothan is where many of the leaders of the Wiregrass have attended over the years. Dr. Mike Watson has been a leader in the Methodist Church throughout his illustrious career. He recently retired as a Bishop of the Methodist Church. He and his wife, Margaret, grew up in the First Methodist Church of Dothan. Two Alabama Attorney Generals, Bill Baxley and Richmond Flowers, came from First Methodist in Dothan. Congressional candidate and businessman, Jeff Coleman, is also an active member of this church.
Our legendary United States Senator and Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice, Howell Heflin, was the son of a Methodist minister. Heflin was a master storyteller and having grown up in the Methodist Church was an active layman in the church. He loved to eat. He would say, “The sacred bird of the Methodist was fried chicken.” The Methodist practice of moving their preachers around caused Heflin to be born out of Alabama. Heflin would say, “My father was over in Georgia doing missionary work among the heathen.”
Alabama’s most prominent and prolific political icon, George Wallace, was a Methodist. Our Legendary United States Senators Lister Hill and John Sparkman were both Methodists.
State Rep. Steve Clouse has been a member of First Methodist in Ozark his entire life. State Rep. Bill Poole and Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox, are members of the First Methodist Church of Tuscaloosa. Huntsville mayor, Tommy Battle, is a Methodist and his grandfather was a Methodist minister.
Senator Jeff Sessions is a lifelong, devout Methodist. He even went to the Montgomery Methodist founded college, Huntington. BCA President Katie Britt and her husband Wesley attend the First Methodist Church of Montgomery. Current Chief Justice Tom Parker and his wife Dottie, attend Frazer United Methodist of Montgomery, the Church made famous by John Ed Mathison.
Congressman Robert Aderholt and his wife, Caroline, met at the Methodist college of Birmingham Southern College and were married in the Methodist church, but are now Anglicans.
The Baptists have been taking their rightful place at the head of the table in recent years. Our Governor Kay Ivey is a Baptist. She attends First Baptist Church of Montgomery. The legendary pastor there, Jay Wolfe, has been the confidant and pastor to a good many of our recent state leaders. PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh and her husband, Jeff, are also active members of First Baptist Church of Montgomery. Twinkle teaches Sunday School and Jeff is a deacon.
Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth is a Baptist and has been a youth leader in his church. Secretary of State John Merrill is an active member of Calvary Baptist Church of Tuscaloosa. State Senator Greg Reed of Jasper is a Baptist. Greg has been a lifelong member of First Baptist Jasper. Alabama Farmers Federation President Jimmy Parnell is a deacon of his church, Hillcrest Baptist of Maplesville, where his family has attended for generations.
We have a couple of state leaders who are Presbyterians. The two most prominent are our Senior United States Senator, Richard Shelby and state Treasurer John McMillan.
We have two token Episcopalians, Mobile/Baldwin Congressman, Bradley Bryne and the Congressman who preceded him, Jo Bonner, who is currently Governor Ivey’s Chief of Staff
In bygone days if you wanted to be elected to anything in North Alabama, you had to be a member of the Church of Christ. Not so much today. The only member of that church today, who is a prominent state political leader, is State Senator Jabo Waggoner, Jr. who represents an over the mountain, Birmingham silk-stocking district.
See you next week.
January 8, 2020 - What Does the Presidential Race Look like Nationally?
Our presidential primary in the Heart of Dixie is less than two months away. We vote on March 3, 2020. President Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee. It is a foregone conclusion that Trump will carry Alabama in the November General Election.
One of the most intriguing revelations will be which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Democratic Primary in Alabama in March. Longtime Democratic kingpin, Joe Reed, who heads the Alabama Democratic Conference will have a lot to say about the outcome. It will be interesting to see how former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s late entry into the Democratic race for President fares.
Bloomberg is one of the wealthiest men in the world. He is much wealthier than Donald Trump. Inexplicably, Bloomberg chose Alabama as one of the first states that he will run in. It will be interesting to watch what he does in Alabama. This wrinkle will bring national attention to our March 3 Democratic Primary.
President Trump will not only win the GOP Primary in our state on March 3, he will carry Alabama overwhelmingly in the November General Election. Trump carried Alabama with a 63 percent plurality in 2016. He will more than likely match or exceed those numbers again this year. It may make us one of the most pro-Trump Red Republican states in America.
The Republican presidential nominee, Trump, will not only carry Alabama but also the Deep South and the Heartland states of middle America. However, the Democratic nominee for President will win the East and West coasts of our country.
The hay is in the barn in about 40 states because of our Electoral College System where the winner of the state, even if only by one vote, gets all of the electoral votes of that state. Currently, the Electoral College System favors those of us in smaller Red states. Trump would not have been elected President, otherwise. He did not get the most votes cast. Even with the slight Electoral College advantage, the GOP conservative nominee has an uphill climb to beat Democratic liberal nominee.
Folks, we have 9 electoral votes. California has 55 electoral votes. Having said that, even though Trump will be favored to win Alabama in the Fall election, he enters the national contest a clear underdog. The presidential race will be decided in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. President Trump has to carry all five of these states to win reelection.
Current polling shows that President Trump is behind in all five of these pivotal swing states. However, let me remind you again that it is not what the entire electorate feels or how they would vote that counts. What counts is who shows up to vote on Election Day on November 3. Trump’s campaign will focus on firing up and enthusing his base to get out to vote. That was how he won in 2016, and that is his path to victory in 2020. It is those who vote that counts.
Trump could very well win this year’s election. He is raising more money than all the Democratic candidates. Under the Electoral College system, this geographic advantage is so strong that he could lose the popular vote by five million and still win.
History is also on Trump’s side. Since World War II, presidents have won a second term unless there was a major economic recession, which is always a crucial ingredient in any presidential race. Trump has been the steward of tremendous economic growth over his tenure. Indeed, polls indicate that the economy is his ace in the hole. He has overwhelmingly favorable numbers on the handling of the economy. Trump performs poorly on other policy issues as well as honesty, integrity and steadiness.
Again, it is all about turnout. Trump is hanging his hat on a “base strategy” aimed at pleasing his most ardent and passionate followers. The question becomes, will they hang with him if the economy falters? They will in Alabama, but will they in Michigan?
Sixty-years ago in the epic 1960 Presidential Race between Republican Richard Nixon and Democrat John Kennedy there were 40 states in play and 10 predetermined. Today, the numbers are reversed. There are only 10 swing states that determine the outcome of the Presidential election.
Another significant change is the age of the presidential candidates. President Trump is 73, Joe Biden is 78, and Bernie Sanders is 79. If Michael Bloomberg makes a move, he is 77. When John F. Kennedy was sworn in he was only 43 years old.
See you next week.
January 1, 2020 - New Year Begins. It’s a Presidential Year
As the new year begins, so does a Presidential election year.
For several decades, in fact for most of the twentieth century, Alabamians were more interested in state and local politics than presidential politics. In fact, from 1901 through the 1950’s there were more people voting in a Democratic Primary for Governor than in a presidential General Election.
The interest in national politics is a fairly new occurrence for Alabamians, and it seems to have been in correlation to the party change in the state. Donald Trump carried Alabama by over 63 percent in 2016. You can pretty much bet the family farm that he will do the same to whomever the national Democrats offer up in the coming year.
The country is divided like never before in our history. You either live in a red Republican state or a blue Democratic state like California. You might say, “the hay is in the barn,” in all but about 10 battleground swing states. There are 40 states that it really does not matter who the Republican or Democratic nominee is, that party’s candidate is going to win that state and get all of that states electoral votes.
As I always say, if Mickey Mouse was the Republican nominee for President, he would carry Alabama and by the same token, if Donald Duck was the Democratic nominee, he would carry California.
The election is won or lost in the swing states of Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The candidates will not even campaign in these safe 40 states. We will not see the presidential candidates, but neither will California or New York. Although, the Democratic candidates will go to California and New York to raise money. In fact, that is where our anomaly, short-lived Democratic Senator Doug Jones is getting his campaign money. He raises his funds in the most liberal zip codes in America, especially the left coast of California.
Our national politics, especially Congress, has become nothing more than an extreme partisan show. The theater is acted out in childlike petty gamesmanship. The Democratic charade of the impeachment inquiry is a perfect example. They are having a childlike food fight.
Swing voters are really turned off by this partisan circus. It is an obvious political vendetta. The votes are exactly along party lines. That in itself tells independent voters that it is a tribal squabble that is obsessing the tribally aligned politicians instead of important economic issues that affect them and their families.
The Democratic CNN/MSNBC/Stephen Colbert watchers gleefully boast of a coup that will never occur. An impeachment vote by only Democrats in the House of Representatives will never be approved or given any credence in the United States Senate, which has a Republican majority. It would need a 2/3 vote in the House of Lords and the U.S. Senate has a Republican majority. It appears that all measures, movements, and votes in Washington are cast along party lines.
All of the Republicans watch Fox news and consider the whole theater as an illegitimate political sham. My guess is that the fair minded, independent voter sees this show as a political act to appease their partisan zealots and they are making a mockery of a time-honored institution.
The Democrats will be the losers in this scenario. Voters reacted unfavorably to Republicans when they impeached Bill Clinton. Although they seemed to pay more attention and enjoyed that show more because the proposed misdeed was a lot more salacious.
As we begin the New Year, let’s not forget that we have some governing to do in the Heart of Dixie and not just politicking. The 2020 Legislative Session begins on February 4. The paramount issue to be addressed is our prison overcrowding problem and prison reform. Gov. Kay Ivey will come forward and offer to the Legislature a comprehensive plan to address this dilemma which has been building up for over a decade.
The Governor deserves a tip of the hat for working with the Justice Department on this issue. In turn the Justice Department and our U.S. Attorneys deserve accolades for their due diligence in working harmoniously with the Governor’s office and guiding them in the directions necessary to avoid federal interference.
This discourse and harmony is quite a contrast to the political rhubarb and catastrophe illustrated and orchestrated by the George Wallace vs Frank Johnson scenario of the 1970’s.
See you next week.
December 25, 2019
As is my tradition, as the old year comes to a close, I like to pay homage to legendary Alabama leaders who have passed away. We lost some legends in 2019.
Although he was a nonpolitical leader, Bart Starr passed away this year at 85. Starr was best known for being the quarterback of the great Green Bay Packers teams that won the NFL Championship perennially. Starr was the leader of Coach Vince Lombardo’s dynasty teams.
Starr died during Memorial Day weekend in Birmingham. He left an indelible legacy that was vast and greater than just being a pro-quarterback. Starr was a Packer and Alabama Football legend. However, Starr’s grace, humility and love for his wife Cherry is what made him a great man. Starr grew up in Montgomery. He was a successful businessman after his NFL career.
Legendary State Representative Pete Turnham of Auburn died in his beloved city in September. He was three months away from being 100. He served 40 years in the Alabama House of Representatives and during that tenure he made sure that Auburn University was taken care of in the state budget. Mr. Pete was one of my best friends. We sat together in the House for 16 years.
A lion and giant of the Alabama House of Representatives, Rick Manley, passed away in January at 86. Rick served the people of Demopolis and West Alabama in the Legislature more than 25 years. He was one of the most astute parliamentarians to ever serve in the legislature. Rick Manley served as chairman of both the House and Senate Judiciary Committees. He was also an outstanding attorney and served in a leadership role within the Alabama Law Institute. Manley served a term as Speaker ProTem of the Alabama House.
Representative Jimmy Martin of Clanton died in May of cancer on the last day of the 2019 Regular Legislative Session. He was 80. He knew almost everyone in Chilton County. He and his brother ran their family funeral home.
State Representative Dimitri Polizos of Montgomery passed away in March at 68. He was a longtime Montgomery restaurant owner. He was very well liked and respected in the Capitol City. Dimitri was typical of many of today’s Republican legislators. He was a small business owner and a conservative. Dimitri was not only a successful restaurateur, he also was very active in and an integral part of the Greek community and the Greek Orthodox Church. Polizos served six years in the Legislature prior to that he served six years on the Montgomery County Commission.
Chris McNair passed away in May at 93 in Birmingham. Mr. McNair was a former Jefferson County Commissioner. Chris McNair was a first-class gentleman. We served together in the legislature. We became good friends. He loved photography. He was always taking pictures, in fact it was his business/profession. His daughter Denise was one of the four little girls who were killed by a bomb at the 16th Street Baptist Church in downtown Birmingham in the 1960s. The girls were attending Sunday school. Chris served 15 years on the Jefferson County Commission. He loved his family and his community.
Legendary former Tuscaloosa mayor, Al Dupont, passed away in July at age 94. He served as Mayor of the Druid City for 25 years, retiring in 2005. He was colorful and beloved by many. He was a decorated veteran of World War II and won two Purple Hearts. He was among the first wave of troops who stormed Normandy on D-Day. He epitomized the greatest generation.
Former 1st District Congressman, Jack Edwards, passed away in September at 91. Edwards was one of the first Republican congressmen elected from Alabama in 1964 since Reconstruction. Congressman Edwards served his Mobile/Baldwin County District for exactly 20 years from 1965-1985. Edwards was a stalwart advocate for a strong military. He was a ranking member of the Defense Appropriations Committee.
See you next week.
December 18, 2019 - Pete Turnham Epitomized the Greatest Generation
Famous former television news anchor, Tom Brokaw, wrote an iconic book entitled The Greatest Generation. The 1998 book chronicles the unique character of a generation of Americans. Brokaw attempted to capture the unselfish contribution of our World War II Americans who built our marvelous country.
As Brokaw says, “They will have their place in the ledgers of history, but no block of marble or elaborate edifice can equal their lives of sacrifice and achievement, duty and honor as monuments to their time.”
Pete Turnham of Auburn passed away on September 30, 2019. Mr. Pete epitomized the best of the greatest generation. He was three months shy of 100 when he transitioned to be with his maker and his beloved wife, Kay, who preceded him in death in 2016. While on earth, he lived every day to the fullest. He truly made a difference during the century he was here.
Mr. Pete represented Auburn and Lee County in the Alabama House of Representatives from 1958 to 1998. This is the longest tenure in state history. Due to his longevity and tenure in the Legislature, Mr. Pete became known as the “Dean of the House.”
Like many of the greatest generation, Pete served in World War II. Pete shipped off to Europe during the war earning distinction in battle as a Bronze Star Medal and Valor award winner under the command of the famed General George Patton in the Third Army. His assignment at the end of the war was as a company commander of troops guarding the priceless art stolen and stored by the Nazis at Neuschwanstein Castle. This story was the subject of a famous movie entitled, “The Monuments Men.” You might say that George Clooney played the part of Pete.
Pete came home, raised his family and built a legacy in his beloved Auburn. Like many ambitious men of the greatest generation, Pete became successful in business. However, Mr. Pete is best known for his 40 years of service in the Alabama Legislature. Most of that time he was on the Ways and Means Committee, which appropriates the state education dollars. He made sure that Auburn University got their fair share of these dollars. He retired as the Dean of the House in 1998.
It was one of the greatest privileges and experiences of my life to sit beside Mr. Pete in the Legislature for 16 years. We became best friends for life. When I arrived as a freshman, 30-year-old legislator in 1982, Pete had already been a representative for 24 years. He had known me as a youngster when I spent my summers paging in the House. When I arrived, Pete took me under his wing and told me I was going to sit by him. Therefore, I immediately left the other freshmen on the back row and went to a prime seat near the front of the chamber next to the Dean of the House.
You get to know someone well over 16 years. Pete Turnham was the consummate gentleman. I never heard him say a harsh word about anyone or use any profanity.
He loved his wife, Kay, his children, his Baptist Church in Auburn, and Auburn University. He also loved his vegetable garden. True to his agricultural roots, he grew his own produce in his six acres behind his house. Pete’s favorite place was in his vegetable garden where for 65 years he personally attended the planting and harvesting. He had quite a green thumb. Hisgarden was famous and he shared the bounty with friends and neighbors.
Like many great men of that generation, he genuinely loved and cared about people and helping his fellow man. He helped and cared for his folks in Lee County on a daily basis, especially assisting students at Auburn University.
I closely watched Pete helping aspiring students and his constituents. He helped a lot of folks in Lee County and he did it without fanfare, whether it was giving someone down on their luck vegetables from his garden or getting their road fixed. Everything he did was with humility, helpfulness, peace-making efforts and a positive attitude. Pete Turnham was a true Christian gentleman.
Pete Turnham served under nine different governors and nine different House Speakers. He was the only legislator to serve during all the Wallace administrations. Passing at nearly 100 years old in the year of Alabama’s Bicentennial 200thAnniversary, Mr. Pete lived half of Alabama’s history and participated in making much of it.
Pete Turnham was one of the greatest of the Greatest Generation.
Next week we will commemorate the other Alabama political legends who passed away this year.
See you next week.
December 11, 2019 - Some Henry County Stories
One of the really good guys in Alabama government took over the reigns as President of the Alabama Association of County Commissioners this summer. Henry County Probate Judge and County Commission Chairman, David Money, is an extremely outstanding and quality leader for his beloved Henry County. He is revered by his folks in Abbeville, Headland and throughout his home county.
Henry County is one of the friendliest counties you will ever enter. David Money is their boy or maybe you might say their David. You can see a look of admiration and reverence for their David in the eyes of his people when they look at him. He was raised in Henry County and therefore, he knows most of the folks there. His best buddy is his neighbor and friend, Jimmy Rane, the Yellow Fella. Some say this big old Henry County boy is one of the wealthiest men in the state. Jimmy still lives in Abbeville and has his business center there. Jimmy and David visit over coffee several times a week.
To observe the folks and relationships of Henry County, like the David Money and Jimmy Rane story, epitomizes the saying made popular by the late, great, Alabama storyteller, Kathryn Tucker Windham, “Alabama is just a big front porch.”
Having told you about David Money, Jimmy Rane, and Henry County, reminds me of another story about the county which I will share with you. Bill Baxley like most politicians had his favorite stories. One that Baxley told repeatedly throughout the years was about an old guy named Squatlow.
Squatlow was nicknamed that because he would squat down close to the ground whenever he would talk with folks. You have seen old guys who do that, squat down while they talk. Old Squatlow would hunker down with a chew of tobacco in his mouth and gossip and swap stories all day.
Baxley was a young District Attorney for Houston and Henry Counties. Houston is a fairly large county. Dothan is the county seat. Houston had about 90% of the people in the Circuit with Henry County being the home to about 10% of the people in the Circuit. Baxley was a youthful 25-year-old D.A. and would travel to Court on occasion in Henry County to prosecute the few wayward criminals they had in Henry County.
Baxley like most politicians would stop at a country store and drink a coke with the rural folks in the area. Henry County is a very sparsely populated rural county in the Wiregrass with two small towns, Abbeville and Headland. Abbeville happens to be the county seat. This story takes place in the early 1960s about the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Squatlow was a mechanic in a gas station/grocery store in the obscure community of Tumbleton in Henry County. Most folks in that area refer to Tumbleton as “Shelleyville” because most of the people have the surname Shelley. Squatlow’s whole world was no bigger than that county. The biggest places he had ever been were Abbeville and Headland with a population of about 1,000 people each.
Well, they may have been back in the woods, but they sure knew about the Cuban Missile Crisis and the standoff between the United States and Russia. It was a scary situation. I think most people were afraid that a nuclear war was imminent. The whole world was on edge.
During the week of this crisis, Baxley was traveling to court in Henry County. He stopped by Squatlow’s store in Tumbleton. Squatlow and all the folks in the little community were scared. This was obviously the topic of conversation that day.
Old Squatlow sauntered down in his lowest squatting position and just shook his head. “You know, I’ve been thinking about it all night, and I just know those damn Russians are going to bomb Abbeville. Yeah, they gonna drop one of them atom bombs right on Abbeville,” said old Squatlow.
Baxley looked at Squatlow and said, “Squatlow, why in the world would the Russians drop a bomb on Abbeville, Alabama?” Squatlow looked at Baxley like he was the most stupid person he had ever seen. He shook his head at how ignorant this young, 25-year-old lawyer was. He looked at Baxley and said, “Boy, don’t you know nothing? Don’t you know that Abbeville is the County Seat of Henry County?”
See you next week.
December 4, 2019 - The Race is on for the U.S. Senate
We are less than three months away from the election for our number two U.S. Senate Seat. The winner of the Republican Primary on March 3, 2020 will be our next U.S. Senator. Winning the GOP Primary for any statewide office in a presidential year is tantamount to election in the Heart of Dixie.
Jeff Sessions is the prohibitive favorite to win back his seat he held for 20 years. He probably regretted from day one leaving a safe U.S. Senate Seat with 20 years of seniority and four-years left on his term, to take a temporary Attorney General appointment for at best a four- year tenure. It amazed me when he did it. Sessions and Trump were at odds from the beginning over Sessions’ recusal from the Russian collusion probe by the Democrats. Trumps’ disenchantment with Sessions was quite obvious and outspoken.
Sessions was right, legally. However, Trump is very popular in Alabama among Republican voters. Therefore, Trump won the public relations battle over Sessions in Alabama. Trump’s tweets were harsh, bitter and vitriolic. When Sessions was in this seat three years ago at this time he was considered the most popular political figure in the state. He was damaged by the two years of constant bombardment and ridicule from the President. However, Sessions has a reservoir of support from having been a very popular Senator for two decades that will allow him to win back his seat.
Sessions will lead the field in the March 3 Primary. However, it is doubtful that he can win without a runoff. His late entry into the race allowed several elite high profile candidates to begin a race for the senate seat. Most have been running vigorously for over a year. One of the early frontrunners, Secretary of State John Merrill, who probably has the best grassroots organization in the State, has opted out due to Sessions’ entry. At age 54 Merrill can wait. It is now or never for Roy Moore, Tommy Tuberville, and Bradley Byrne. Like Sessions they are not spring chickens.
Current polling has Sessions at 30%. Former Auburn football coach, Tommy Tuberville, at 21%. First District Congressman, Bradley Bryne at 14% and former Chief Justice, Roy Moore at 12%.
However, a better barometer of the challengers is the amount of money they have raised and have on hand. Sessions has $2.5 million left over from his war chest when he was in this Senate Seat. The candidate who is in the catbird’s seat to move up in the polls is Congressman Bradley Byrne who is sitting on $2.5 million. Coach Tuberville is showing $1.4 million. However, $1 million is his money he has loaned to his campaign. Judge Moore has $33,000.
Money is the “mother’s milk” of politics. Money talks and everything else walks. It buys name identification and image building. Jeff Sessions can raise another $1 million or more in Washington. Bryne can add another $300,000 from Washington. Tuberville may have tapped out all of the Auburn football fan donations that he has already done well with. Moore will not raise much money. He really does not need to. He is going to get 12-15% come hell or high water. They are with him no matter if he decides to get out and campaign or stay home and ride his horse Sassy.
My guess or you can call it a prognostication with three months out. Jeff Sessions spends $3 million and uses a message that he is still pro Donald Trump and was the first sitting Senator to endorse him and is prepared to diffuse any negative attacks reminding GOP Trump voters of the vitriolic tweets about him sent by the President. He leads the primary with about 39%.
Judge Roy Moore gets his 13%. I’m afraid the Judge may be running his last race and finishes a respectable fourth. About 3% go to the also ran candidates. That leaves 45% of the vote for Tommy Tuberville and Bradley Byrne to fight over and hope to get into a runoff with Sessions.
The next month will be down time with very little mention of politics due to the holidays. The campaigns will kick into high gear by mid-January with the final week being the key to victory. Again, who has the money to spend in the final 10 days is critical.
The bottom line is whichever Republican – Jeff Sessions, Tommy Tuberville, or Bradley Byrne – wins the GOP nomination, any one of them beat the Democrat Doug Jones. It does not matter how much left-wing money Jones raises from California, it is all for naught. Alabama is a conservative Republican state. Jones really should run for the Senate from California.
See you next week.
November 27, 2019 - Players are in Place for Next Year’s Election
Qualifying has ended and the players are in place for next year’s elections. It is a Presidential year. It is up in the air as to who will be the Democratic presidential standard bearer. President Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee.
It is a foregone conclusion that Trump will carry Alabama next November. In fact, it would be safe to say that all statewide Republican candidates on the ballot will win next year. When it comes to national and statewide contests in the Heart of Dixie, we are a one state party. If you want to win a state or U.S. Senate race in Alabama, you have to run as a Republican.
Therefore, winning next year’s March 3 Primary is tantamount to election in the state. That means the election is less than four months away. There will be a little holiday lull between now and the first of the year. However, when January and the new year begin campaigns will begin going full steam ahead.
The premier contest will be for the U.S. Senate and two open Congressional seats. I will address those federal races in a separate column next week.
The most important positions, along with the federal races, will be for posts on our state Supreme Court and our Courts of Civil and Criminal Appeals. There are two seats on each of these three tribunals on the ballot. Most of the judges up for election are incumbents and either have no opposition or only token opponents.
Former Houston County Circuit Judge, Brad Mendheim, will win election to a full six-year term on the State Supreme Court without opposition. The very popular presiding judge for the Court of Civil Appeals, Bill Thompson, will be anointed without opposition for another six year stint. Bill has done an outstanding job on this court for decades. He even looks like a judge.
Judge Beth Kellum has done an exemplary job in her post on the State Court of Criminal Appeals. She probably will be reelected to another term. She has two opponents – Jill Ganus and Will Smith. It does not hurt that she was born and raised in Tuscaloosa.
The Druid City seems to have an inordinate number of statewide officeholders. Tuscaloosa has a lot of voters, but it seems to be more than that. It is as though the Black Warrior River spawns them.
Judge Mary Windom of Mobile will more than likely win another six year term on the Court of Criminal Appeals. She has an opponent Melvin Hasting.
There will be a contested race for a place on the State Court of Civil Appeals. The very popular Scott Donaldson is retiring. By the way, Scott is from Tuscaloosa and served on the bench there before being elected to the State Court. There will be a spirited race for his seat between Shelby County State Representative Matt Fridy and Birmingham Lawyer Phillip Bahakel.
The most hotly contested race on the March 3 Primary ballot will be between State Senator Cam Ward and incumbent Greg Shaw for Shaw’s seat on the State Supreme Court. Shaw has done a good job on the High Tribunal and is considered a solid conservative, pro-business judge. Ward has been on a fast and successful track in the state legislature. He hails from Shelby County and has been a high-profile State Senator for several terms. He is 48 and a very gregarious and tenacious campaigner.
It is doubtful that the business groups that primarily fund these State Supreme Court races will abandon the solid but quiet Shaw. However, these same groups may be reluctant to not cover their bets with Ward. In addition, the plaintiff trial lawyers have found a way to funnel money quietly to these races.
Popular PSC President, Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh, will be reelected. Twinkle is known and respected as one of Alabama’s most conservative leaders. She has a token opponent who is part of a left wing California-like liberal group.
Huntsville’s outstanding mayor, Tommy Battle, will be up for reelection in that city’s August, 2020 mayoral race. Battle will be a prohibitive favorite to win reelection to a third term.
Battle ran a respectable second to Kay Ivey in the 2018 Governor’s race. During that contest I asked him why in the world would he trade being mayor of Huntsville for being Governor of Alabama? Huntsville is poised to be the fastest growing and most prosperous metropolitan area, not only in Alabama and the South, but in the nation during the next decade.
See you next week.
November 20, 2019 - John McMillan – A Good Man as State Treasurer
Alabama is in good hands with John McMillan. A good man is in the job of State Treasurer of Alabama for the third straight quadrennium.
Young Boozer served two successive four-year terms from 2010-2018. Mr. Boozer did an excellent job as Treasurer. He was perfect for the job. He had been a successful banker. He ran for and did the job for the right reason, not for political gain or prestige, but to do a good job as Alabama’s treasurer. Some folks thought Young Boozer would make a good choice for higher statewide office. However, he and his wife, Sally, opted to enjoy a relaxed life.
John McMillan is now doing the job of State Treasurer for the very same reason. He, too, could go to the house and enjoy his life but he wants to serve the state he loves.
Before being elected State Treasurer, John served two consecutive successful four-year terms as Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries for Alabama from 2010 to 2018. The jobs of Agriculture Commissioner and Treasurer, like all state constitutional offices, are term limited for two four-year terms.
John McMillan and his wife Kathryn will eventually return to Baldwin County. McMillian’s family roots grow deep in Baldwin County soil. His family were some of the original settlers of the area before the Civil War. They have been in the timber business around Bay Minette for close to a century.
Interestingly, Congressman Bradley Byrne, who currently represents Baldwin County has deep roots in Baldwin County. His folks settled on the Eastern Shore around Fairhope before Alabama was a State in 1819. In fact, John McMillan and Bradley Byrne are cousins.
John McMillan grew up in the rural community of Stockton near Bay Minette in Baldwin. He grew up in the county when it was primarily agricultural and was known as Alabama’s potato growing county. He graduated from Baldwin County High School. He must have been a pretty good student because after high school he attended and graduated from the prestigious Rhodes College in Memphis where he earned a BA in Economics.
McMillan was appointed to the Baldwin County Commission by Governor Albert Brewer. After serving on the County Commission, McMillan was elected to the state legislature. He served two terms in the House of Representatives.
After the legislature, he was chosen to head the Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. During his time as Commissioner of Conservation, McMillan was instrumental in the creation of the Alabama Trust Fund which preserves revenue from offshore oil and gas leases.
He then spent 20 successful years as Executive Vice President of the Alabama Forestry Association. He was elected Agriculture Commissioner in 2010 and reelected in 2014. As Ag Commissioner, he oversaw one of the largest departments of state government. He served as President of the Southern Association of State Departments of Agriculture and also on the National Board of Agriculture departments.
As is fitting for a former conservation director, McMillan loves hunting, fishing and other outdoor activities. However, he mostly loves his family. He and Kathryn have two sons, William and Murphy. They also have two grandchildren.
His most famous relative is his twin brother, Steve McMillan. Representative Steve McMillan took his twin’s seat in the House from Baldwin County in 1980 when John was appointed Conservation Director. Steve McMillan has served with distinction in that Baldwin County House seat for over 38 years. He has been elected to nine four-year terms. Steve is only superseded in Alabama history for legislative longevity by Pete Turnham, Alvin Holmes, Ron Johnson and James Buskey.
You can bet your bottom dollar that your money will be safe with John McMillan as Treasurer. However, that has not always been the case with Treasurers in Alabama history. In March of 1887, Alabama State Treasurer, Issac “Honest Ike” Vincent, absconded with more than $225,000 in State funds and fled the state. This was quite a sum of money in 1887.
Our fugitive State Treasurer was arrested on a train in Big Sandy, Texas and returned to Alabama for trial. Vincent was tried and convicted of embezzlement and sentenced to 15 years in the state penitentiary.
See you next week.
November 13, 2019 - State Legislature Not Very Good Stepping Stone
Early speculation on the 2020 U.S. Senate race had state senator, Del Marsh, listed as a potential GOP aspirant. He had considered making a plunge into the Special Election contest for Jeff Sessions’ seat in 2017 but opted out.
Most astute observers never thought he would ultimately pull the trigger then, or this year. Unlike others, who have run and won statewide, Marsh is essentially unknown outside of the Capitol and is known only around his Anniston state senate district. His best asset was probably that he had his own money to spend rather than his state senate influence.
His name appeared on a Mason-Dixon poll conducted in April with other potential candidates, including Roy Moore, Bradley Byrne, Mo Brooks and Gary Palmer. The name identification of these four ranged from 90 percent for Moore to 40 percent for Palmer. Marsh had three percent name identification. Soon after, he said that he was not going to run.
It was a wise decision. He could not have won and if he could he would not be as powerful as he is in his current position. As President Pro Tem of the Alabama State Senate, he is very influential. In fact, he has more influence over public policy in his current post than he would as a Freshman U.S. Senator, especially a 64-year old freshman.
Senator Marsh’s abysmal name identification number is no surprise. My observation over the years is that legislators and state senators, regardless of how powerful they are in Montgomery, are unknown statewide. The bottom line is the Legislature is not a good stepping stone to higher elected office, especially the U.S. Senate.
A very similar scenario to Marsh’s occurred years ago. Then Speaker of the House, Seth Hammett of Andalusia, was contemplating running for governor. Like Marsh, Seth’s role as Speaker made him the most powerful of all 140 House and Senate members. Seth was well liked and very respected among his legislative colleagues. He was and still is beloved in his native Covington County.
Well, Seth’s first due diligence was to conduct a Benchmark poll. He commissioned one of the best pollsters in the south and awaited the results. When it came back, the mild mannered, respected Speaker of the Alabama House had three percent name identification. Seth’s potential opponent, Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley, had 78 percent name ID. Seth chose not to run for governor but remain as Speaker.
My good friend, Mac McArthur, has been the head of the Alabama State Employees Association for over two decades. Not many folks know this, but Mac is a lawyer and was a prosecutor as a young man. He also was Director of the State Ethics Commission for a few years before moving to his current post at ASEA.
Ole Mac had political aspirations as a young prosecutor. He really wanted to be Attorney General of Alabama. While he was Ethics Chairman he was planning to run for Attorney General. Like Seth, Mac’s first step was to get a Benchmark name identification poll. He hired the best pollster in the state. Mac was confident that he had some significant name identification because he had just gotten some good statewide publicity for some high-profile prosecutions as Ethics Chairman.
The pollster called Mac soon after the poll and said, “Come on over.” Mac rushed over to his office and anxiously awaited the results. His pollster began by telling Mac he had good news. Mac you have almost six percent statewide name identification. Mac’s despondent reply was, “The only thing good I see in that is I can run through Winn Dixie butt naked and nobody will know who I am.”
Alabama’s greatest and most legendary political icon, George C. Wallace, knew the importance of name identification. During Wallace’s early years the place to stay for all legislators and powerbrokers was the old Exchange Hotel in downtown Montgomery. Wallace would of course stay there during the legislative sessions as a young legislator from Barbour County. It was a hotbed of politics and many a political deal was consummated on the premises of the Exchange. Wallace would pay the Bellhop a tip every day to walk through the lobby and sing out loudly, “George Wallace, calling George Wallace.”
Wallace would use the same gimmick at the University of Alabama football games in the Fall. He would get the PA announcer to call out his name, “Calling George Wallace.” Name identification is a vital ingredient for success in politics. The Master of Alabama politics knew this fact of political life.
See you next week.