May 19, 2021 - Status of 2022 U.S. Senate Race
When Senator Richard Shelby announced he would not run for reelection to a sixth six-year term in 2022, speculation immediately began as to who would run for our iconic senior senator’s seat. Numerous names were floated as to who might lineup for the coveted seat. It is expected to be a fairly large field.
The winner of next year’s May Republican primary and ultimately the summer GOP runoff will be our next junior senator. Winning the GOP Primary is tantamount to election in the Heart of Dixie in a statewide race and especially a U.S. Senate race. It is highly unlikely that a candidate can win the primary without a runoff. So, the mission for each candidate will be to be one of the top two vote getters in late May and be ready for a battle Royale runoff brawl in the summer.
As the potential warriors prepare, they best be advised to have tough skin. It will be an acrimonious fray. All serious candidates will retain Washington consultants, pollsters, and media advisors. These D.C. consultants thrive on mean, vicious and unbridled, negative, advertising techniques. Therefore, the arena will be as tough to survive as a Roman gladiator spectacle.
The key to winning this race is the same as all races. It is simple. It is who has the money. Money is the mother’s milk of politics. When someone comes to this dance, the first question asked by those who observe, calculate, and analyze this race, is show me the money.
Congressman Mo Brooks of Huntsville wasted no time getting into the race. He has been planning to run for over two years. He has come out of the gate impressively and is the early favorite to win the race, which by the way is only one year away. Brooks is riding high among right wing Republicans for his red meat speeches and voting record in Congress.
There is no doubt that Mo Brooks is an ultra-conservative even if he has been ineffective. He has demonstrated his arch conservative Republican philosophy for nearly four decades of political life in Alabama Republican politics. He hails from the vote rich Tennessee Valley of North Alabama. It does not hurt him that he has run two statewide races, which has helped him build name identification and some organization. However, his major trump card is that he has received the early whole-hearted endorsement of former President Donald Trump. The problem Brooks faces is that Trump’s influence will fade over the next year, and the early favorite very rarely wins in a highly contested race for an open senate seat in Alabama.
Lynda Blanchard is another early entrant into the senate race. She is a Montgomerian, who appears to possess the main ingredient necessary to be a viable candidate. She appears to have the money. She began her campaign by loaning $5 million to her campaign efforts. She served as President Trump’s Ambassador to Slovenia. Her background and resume could be attractive. She should not be underestimated.
A well-heeled candidate who may be edging closer to entering the Derby is Dothan businessman Jeff Coleman. He possesses the right and necessary ingredient for a successful recipe – money. He can bankroll the effort and also has proven fundraising skills. Some people might be skeptical that his 2020 loss in the second district congressional race might hurt his credibility. My guess is that it is irrelevant as to whether he won or lost, most people do not follow politics enough to recall the outcome. The amount of time and especially money spent by Coleman in that race has secured some name identification in the southern part of the state.
The big question is, does Senator Shelby’s former Chief of Staff and current President of the Business Council of Alabama, Katie Britt, enter the race. Her credibility and success lie totally on Senator Shelby’s commitment to her cause. It is no secret that Shelby wants Katie Boyd Britt to succeed him. He likes the fact that she is brilliant, capable, and young. She would also be an excellent campaigner. However, it will take a lot of money to make Katie a winner. She begins with no name identification.
Again, this will be an expensive and probably a vicious race. The gloves will come off and it will be tough brawl.
It will be interesting to watch. I will keep you posted.
See you next week.
May 12, 2021 - How Will Alabama Fare in Washington after Richard Shelby
Some of you have inquired how Alabama will fare in Washington after Senator Shelby retires at the end of 2022. The answer is that it will be nothing less than devastating for the Heart of Dixie. The amount of federal dollars that Senator Shelby has individually brought home is incalculable and irreplaceable. Alabama is going to be in the proverbial boat without a paddle in 20 short months. We will have negligible power in Washington and for a state that depends on federal dollars, that is not going to be a good position to be in for Alabama.
Whoever wins the 2022 race for Shelby’s seat will have no real power for at least 18 years. The senate is a venerable institution where power is based on seniority. You have to wait your turn and patiently await the day when you can be a committee chairman or player in the senate. Even if we elect someone with the acumen, ability and temperament to be an effective senator, they will be in waiting two decades before they are modestly important.
Tommy Tuberville has only been in the senate for four months. He is 66 and will be irrelevant in probably one term in the Senate. In short, we are dead in the water in the U.S. Senate for this generation. There is hope for future generations of Alabamians if someone under 55 with ability takes Shelby’s seat.
There is a glimmer of hope for Alabama to sustain and preserve some of the mountains of largesse that Shelby has bestowed on our beloved state. However, that power rests in the U.S. House of Representatives. Congresswoman Terri Sewell and Congressman Robert Aderholt could be our hope for salvation for the upcoming decade.
Congresswoman Terri Sewell is in her sixth two-year term representing Alabama’s seventh Congressional district. She is one of the first women elected to congress from Alabama in her own right and is the first black woman to ever serve in the Alabama Congressional delegation.
She is the only Democrat in the entire Alabama delegation. Therefore, she is our only conduit to the Democratic Presidential throne. She is highly respected by the Biden Administration, as well as the U.S. House leadership. She is on a fast track too within the House Democratic Party. In her short time in Congress, Sewell has held several leadership positions including freshman class president and currently serves as Chief Deputy Whip under the tutelage of Democratic Whip James Clyburn.
Sewell has made her mark within the Democratic Caucus. The Democrats not only occupy the White House, they are also in the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. The majority party controls all the committee chairmanships and all of the power in Congress. The most important aspect of Congresswoman Sewell’s ability to help Alabama is that she sits on the exclusive House Ways and Means Committee, which writes the federal budget.
By far the brightest Republican star in our Washington delegation is Congressman Robert Aderholt. This clean cut, conservative was first elected to Congress in 1996 at the age of 31. He is now in his 25th year in Congress and is a member of the powerful House Committee on Appropriations. His sprawling north Alabama 4th District extends in a band across north Alabama from Mississippi to Georgia. Huntsville’s hope is that when the new Congressional districts are drawn this year for the 2022 elections, that Aderholt can be brought into Madison County to help protect the Redstone Arsenal, which is truly dependent on federal dollars from Washington.
Congressman Aderholt was born and raised in Haleyville where he and his wife, Caroline, reside when not in Washington. His father is a revered and respected, retired circuit judge. Caroline has deep political roots in the Huntsville/Madison area. Her father, Albert McDonald, was a prominent farmer who was a state senator from the Tennessee Valley and was Alabama’s Agriculture Commissioner.
A third member of the House delegation, Mike Rogers of Anniston, could give us a triumvirate of power in the U.S. House. Congressman Rogers is the ranking republican on the House Armed Services Committee.
Congresswoman Sewell, Congressman Aderholt and possibly Congressman Rogers, can be a hope for salvation in the post Richard Shelby era for the State of Alabama.
See you next week.
May 5, 2021 - Some Legislative Issues
The 2020 legislative regular session is wrapping up. After this week’s two-days of meeting days, only one final legislative day remains on May 17.
There have been a myriad of high-profile measures addressed during this year’s session. However, the budgets and how state dollars are spent are always the paramount issues on the minds of legislators, especially the budget chairmen.
The elephant in the room, which is on the back of everyone’s mind, is the prison issue. Alabama must have new prisons. The governor wants to and has moved unilaterally to privatize the new prisons. Legislators are skeptical of the open-ended cost and believe the state should own the prisons and a bond issue should be floated to pay for the state’s new prisons.
This skepticism by legislative leaders has resulted in a bill that is meandering through the legislature, which would create a joint legislative oversight committee to review any large expenditures. The bill would require any non-education state agency or state department to obtain approval from a newly formed oversight committee on obligation transparency for any General Fund expenditures over $10 million.
As the COVID pandemic shutdown began last March, home delivery of groceries and all merchandise flourished. Everything under the sun began to be delivered to people’s homes, except for alcohol in Alabama. We have very strict laws regarding the sale of alcohol. These laws are administered and upheld by the Alabama Alcohol and Beverage Control Board. Well, there has been a hue and cry from a good many Alabamians who have desired that wine, beer and liquor be delivered to their homes the same as other grocery items. The legislature heard their concerns and adhered to their wishes. They passed legislation allowing for home delivery of alcohol during this session, and Governor Kay Ivey signed the law.
However, in a recent conversation with Alabama Beverage Control administrators, Mac Gipson and William Thigpen, they are of the belief that very few Alabamians will actually be able to afford this luxury. The legislation calls for very stringent guidelines regarding the delivery process. It will probably be cost prohibitive for delivery companies to participate. There will be costly prohibitions in order to adhere to the ABC’s guidelines. Someone will have to be 21 or older at home to sign for the alcohol. Delivery drivers will have to have perfect driving records that will have to be void of DUI’s for at least six years. There will have to be proper refrigeration for certain beverages and numerous other precautions. There can be no delivery to college campuses or their surrounding neighborhoods. This legislation is not the panacea that at home drinkers believe it will be. Alabamians are also still prohibited from purchasing alcohol from out-of-state under any circumstance. Those Alabama drinkers who delight in garnering select brands of bourbon, scotch, vodka, gin and fine wines must still drive to some other states to get their preferred indulgence.
The perennial legislation regarding the use of medical marijuana for medicinal purposes has been front and center this session. It usually gets passed in the Senate. It always gets bogged down in the House of Representatives. It has become law in most states. However, Alabama is a conservative state, and the Alabama House is a very conservative and deliberative body. Senator Tim Melson, who is a staunch conservative Republican senator and a physician, is the sponsor. He has seen first-hand how the use of medicinal marijuana has helped his patients. A good many Alabamians, who have suffered debilitating pain from cancer and other illnesses, can and will attest to using this relief.
Alabama now has an official state vegetable, the sweet potato. The Alabama legislature made it official during the regular session. Alabama has taken heart in creating official emblems and honors over the years. We have an official state fruit, the blackberry. The official tree fruit is the peach. The official crustacean is the brown shrimp. The official amphibian is the red hills salamander.
All in all, it may not be a bad Session.
See you next week.
April 28, 2021 - Who Are the Nine People Who Sit on Our State Supreme Court?
This week allow me to share with you a sketch of the men and women who sit on our State Supreme Court. These nine Justices are all Republican, all conservative on both social and business issues. All are very devout in their faith and very connected to their church and their family.
Chief Justice Tom Parker has been on the State Supreme Court since 2005. He was born and raised in Montgomery and went to Dartmouth College and Vanderbilt Law School.
Chief Justice Parker and his wife the former Dottie James of Auburn have been married 39 years. Dottie was a supervisor of the governor’s mansion during the Fob James administration. They are Methodist.
Justice Jay Mitchell is the most personable and definitely the tallest member of the Supreme Court. Jay was a star basketball player at Birmingham Southern where he graduated Phi Beta Kappa. He is imminently qualified for the Supreme Court having graduated from the University of Virginia Law School and had a sterling career with a Birmingham Law firm prior to being overwhelmingly elected to the high tribunal in 2018. Justice Mitchell and his wife, Elizabeth, have four children. They reside in Homewood and are members of the Church of the Highlands.
Justice Tommy Bryan is a popular and conservative member of the high court. Tommy was born on a family farm in Crenshaw County. He served on the Court of Civil Appeals and was an assistant attorney general prior to being elected to the Supreme Court in 2012. Justice Bryan and his wife, Pamela, are very active members of the First Baptist Church of Montgomery where he is a Deacon, Sunday School teacher, and sings in the choir. He and Pam are very close and have raised two fine children.
Justice William “Will” Sellers, like Justice Parker, is a Montgomery native, as is Will’s outstanding wife, Lee Grant Sellers. Justice Sellers and Lee have been married 33 years and have three adult children and are active members of Trinity Presbyterian Church of Montgomery. Will was a prominent Tax Attorney prior to going on the court. He is a graduate of the University of Alabama Law School and has a New York University tax degree.
Justice Brad Mendheim was a Circuit Judge in Houston County prior to going on the Supreme Court. He was born and raised in Dothan and is one of the most respected young men to have come out of his hometown. He is a graduate of Auburn University and Cumberland School of Law. He and his wife of 24 years, Michelle, are very active members of the First Baptist Church of Dothan and they have three fine sons.
Justice Greg Shaw epitomizes a judge both professionally and personally. He is said to be the hardest working member of the Court and takes his role seriously and is well above reproach. He has an outstanding wife, Samantha “Sam” Shaw, who has also had a sterling career in politics. She was overwhelmingly elected State Auditor twice, serving eight years. Greg and Sam live on a farm about an hour from Montgomery. They have two outstanding sons and are members of the Auburn United Methodist Church. Justice Shaw graduated from Auburn and Samford’s Cumberland School of Law.
Justice Sarah Stewart is a longtime Mobilian and was a Mobile Circuit Judge prior to going on the Court. She is a very respected jurist and a graduate of Vanderbilt Law School. She and her husband, Craig, have two children and are Methodists.
Justice Mike Bolin is one of the finest men I have ever known. Mike was a stellar and popular Probate Judge in Jefferson County prior to his service on the Supreme Court. He is a graduate of Samford University and a graduate of Cumberland School of Law. Justice Bolin and his wife, Rosemary, have one daughter. They attend St. Peter the Apostle Church in Hoover. Unfortunately, Judge Bolin cannot run for reelection next year. He will be over 70 and is term limited under state law.
However, last but not least, Justice Kelli Wise is well below 70 and can and will run for reelection next year and she will win. She is a very popular member of the high court. Kelli served several terms on the Court of Criminal Appeals before matriculating to the Supreme Court. Justice Wise and her husband, former District Court Judge Arthur Ray, have one daughter and are members of the St. James United Methodist Church. Kelli is a Wiregrass native up for reelection next year in 2022.
See you next week.
April 21, 2021 - State Supreme Court often forgotten in Alabama
Our 1901 Alabama Constitution replicates the United States Constitution in designing a triumvirate of government. The Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches are designed to have separate and essentially equal powers.
Although, ideally, the three branches should be exclusive, over the course of history in both our state and national governments the Executive and Legislative Branches have been intertwined in public policy matters and government seems to work more cohesively that way, especially when they are on congruent pages. On the federal level, our judicial arm of government sits on a separate island shrouded by a statue of the Blind Lady of Justice, and rightfully so. They are very independent and shielded from politics on the federal level. The U.S. Supreme Court is an omnipotent and private reserve of ultimate supreme power over public policy in America.
Our Alabama Supreme Court is separate and powerful, but is not shielded by politics. Our Supreme Court judges are elected. Most states appoint these positions. However, Alabamians have resisted any move to go from elected to appointed. Although most Alabamians could not name any of the members of the Supreme Court, they will fight to their death for their ability to go into a voting booth to elect them even though after they have done so they cannot remember who they just voted for or why.
However, despite having to elect our judiciary, Alabamians have done a good job of electing good, well qualified people to our appellate courts. We have nine members of the State Supreme Court, all elected for six-year terms in staggered election years. We also have a five-member Court of Civil Appeals and a five-member Court of Criminal Appeals. They are also elected for six-year terms in staggered years.
All nine seats on the State Supreme Court are held by Republicans and all 10 appellate judges are Republican. Therefore, winning the GOP Primary in the state Supreme Court races is tantamount to election in the Heart of Dixie. Seven of the nine Supreme Court Justices are men and two are female. All are very conservative and religious in their court decisions and in their personal lives.
As late as the 1990’s, our Supreme Court was Democratic laden like our legislature. However, unlike our legislators, who were mostly conservatives and probably Republicans running as Democrats in name only, these Alabama Democratic Supreme Court judges were pro plaintiff trial lawyers and anti-business. Many had been plaintiff lawyers prior to going on the court. Due to this overt bias and brazen liberal interpretation of laws and justice, we had become the laughingstock of the nation for fairytale justice that gave outrageous verdicts and judgments against every national corporation that did business in our state or even traversed through our borders. Therefore, our State Supreme Court became an eyesore for Alabama in recruiting any business or industry. Time Magazine did a feature publication entitled “Alabama Tort Hell.” Numerous business publications cautioned against not only opening plants in the state but to be leery of even passing through.
Alabama was in bad need of Tort Reform. Alabama’s corporate community, as well as the national business community, decided to change things and that began with changing our State Supreme Court from a Democratic plaintiff bastion to a Republican conservative tribunal; and they put their money where their mouth was. The business community brought in the legendary Karl Rove to orchestrate the takeover. He was successful.
As mentioned, we now have a very conservative Republican nine-member State Supreme Court panel. As Rove was leaving, he imparted this nugget of advice for future races. His polling indicated that voters in Alabama prefer a Republican female candidate for a judgeship. Indeed, it is a proven fact in an Alabama appellate court race, if you place two candidates on a ballot in Alabama and neither does anything or spends any money, Jane Doe will defeat John Doe 54-46.
Next week we will give you a rundown on who are the members who sit on our State Supreme Court.
See you next week.
April 14, 2021 - Reapportionment and Gerrymandering
Hopefully, you participated in the census last year. It is vitally important for each state that every person is counted.
One of the first premises set out by our nation’s founding fathers is that there be a census taken every 10 years. The reason for the United States census is to determine how many seats each state is appropriated in the U.S. House of Representatives. It is based on the Democratic principle of one man one vote. Each state shall be equally represented based on the number of people they have within their state borders.
The power to draw the congressional lines rests with the State Legislature. For that reason, there was a lot of time and money spent by the national political parties to capture the majority of seats in the swing state legislative bodies. The pen to draw the lines is in the hands of the majority party. In Alabama, that is overwhelmingly Republican. Therefore, you can rest assured that Congressional lines in the Heart of Dixie will be favorable toward the GOP’s six-to-one control.
Indeed, this reapportionment pencil has the same application for the legislators’ own districts. This preferential partisan parameters of districts is generally referred to as gerrymandering. Dictionaries define the word “gerrymander” as “to divide a state, country or city limits into voting districts to give unfair advantage to one party in elections.”
This is a pretty apt and succinct description of gerrymandering. The word was derived from an 1812 journalist’s evaluation of a Massachusetts reapportionment map and lines that looked like a salamander. The Governor of Massachusetts, who developed the salamander district, was named Gerry. Thus, the term gerrymander .
In bygone days, gerrymandering was bold, overt and racist. The courts have curtailed racist and ethical boundaries. So gerrymandering is not nearly as blatantly overtly partisan as in past times.
Alabama’s 1901 constitution is as archaic as any in the nation. It has contributed to the poor image that persists today regarding our racist past. However, much of the damage was done during the 1960’s. I had the opportunity to serve as a page in the state legislature when I was a boy. It was quite a learning experience. The older men, who were Senators and House members, would visit with the pages and tutor us on the rules and nuances of parliamentary procedures.
One day, I was looking around the House and it occurred to me that the urban areas and especially north Alabama were vastly underrepresented. As a boy, I knew that the Birmingham area was home to about 20% of the state’s population, but they certainly did not have a fifth of the House members. The same was true of Huntsville and other larger cities in North Alabama.
The rural and black belt counties were enjoying the power that had been granted them by the 1901 constitution. The state legislature was very malapportioned as late as the 1960’s. It was so severely imbalanced that it was almost comical. The legislature had simply ignored the constitutional mandate to reapportion itself every ten years. It was not until 1974 that the courts finally intervened and made the legislature reapportion itself. The federal courts not only mandated the reapportionment, but also eventually had to draw the lines and districts. This federal court intervention gave African Americans representation in the legislature for the first time. Today, about 25% of the seats are held by African Americans. The reapportionment also gave fair and equitable representation to the urban areas of North Alabama.
A cursory look at the legislative chambers today reveals that the majority of legislators are from Birmingham north because that is where the people live. You will see that trend become more accentuated when the lines are drawn this year. The population figures will reveal that north Alabama is where the growth is in the state.
It will be interesting to see how the lines are drawn for the next decade. There will be a little political gerrymandering, but not like in the past years.
It was thought that the 2020 census figures would be available for legislators by January. However, it may now be June, which could delay this year’s reapportionment session and in turn delay the 2022 election primaries.
See you next week.
April 7, 2021 - Wallace: Political Genius and Legislative Master
As the Regular Legislative Session evolves, I recall years past when George Wallace was governor. George Wallace was definitely a political genius and a master of the legislative process. You might say that he was so successful because he had a lot of experience with being governor and dealing with the legislature. That is true, but it went deeper than that. He worked at it.
During my 16 years in the legislature, Wallace was in a league by himself. My first term was 1982 and Governor Wallace was serving his last term as governor. He treated legislators like kings. It did not matter who was in his office, if you were a member of the legislature and you needed to see the Governor about something for your district, he would drop everything and usher you into his office and do anything he could to address your concern or district needs.
I had known Gov. Wallace since I was a young page. One day I went down unannounced without an appointment and his secretary told him I was outside. The next thing I knew the door opened and Wallace told me to come in. He had about six Japanese diplomats in his office, who were prospective industrial prospects. He asked if I wanted to ask them to leave so we could meet privately. I said, “No, Governor, that’s not necessary, I’ll be glad to come back.” He said, “Okay,” but insisted on my staying while they visited. I sat down and he began telling the poor Japanese fellows that I had been a page when I was a little boy and he was in his first term as governor and that now I was his representative since I represented his hometown of Clayton, and he told them who he was kin to in my county and who I was kin to in south Alabama. I’m sure they were amused. Who couldn’t help but vote with a guy who gave a lowly member of the House that kind of attention and deference?
At other times he would call my home at supper time and talk for about 30 minutes about a certain bill he was interested in. He would continue to talk long after I had already told him I would vote with him on his issue. He would tell me to put my two daughters on the phone; they were little at the time, but in his uncanny ability to remember names, he would call them by name and say, “Steve, let me talk to Ginny and let me say hello to little Allyson.” He was amazing. He loved to talk on the phone.
He would also constantly have legislators out to the Governor’s Mansion for supper. We would eat supper with the governor more than with the lobbyists. He knew your district, your family and relatives and what committee you served on, and which program and roads you were interested in. The only thing he did not know was what time you went to bed, because he might call you at 6:00 at suppertime or he might call you at midnight when you were asleep.
He knew how to manipulate the legislature better than anyone. One day he had a group of legislators in his office trying to get them to vote with him. His secretary interrupted him to tell him Vice President Mondale was on the phone. The legislators sat quietly while George talked to the vice president for a few minutes and took care of whatever business they had.
Mondale hung up. Wallace pretended to listen a while longer and said, “Look, Mr. Vice President, I’d like to talk to you some more, but I’ve got a group of representatives and senators in here and I really don’t have time.” All the legislators started whispering, “No, Governor, don’t do that. Don’t hang up on the Vice President. We can wait.” But George just kept on talking, “I really appreciate your asking for my help, Mr. Vice President,” he said, “but I’m hanging up now. I’ve got enough problems here in the state of Alabama. I just can’t solve the world’s problems for you. I’ve got to talk to these legislators about a problem we’ve got in the legislature.” He then hung up the phone.
By that time, those legislators were so impressed at how they were more important than the vice president of the United States that George could have gotten anything he wanted from them, and he did.
See you next week.
March 31, 2021 - 2022 Big Election Year as Alabama Chooses Shelby’s Successor
Last week we alerted you to the fact that next year will be a banner year in Alabama politics. The governor, lieutenant governor and all other statewide constitutional offices are up for election. All 140 members of the legislature are up for election and will be running under new lines. Our entire congressional delegation is up for reelection and they too will be running under new lines drawn by the legislature. All 67 sheriffs in the state are also on the ballot.
This slate in and of itself would make this a marquee year. However, what will render this upcoming 2022 election year momentous is that we will have a very important U.S. Senate Seat to fill. Richard Shelby will retire after 36 years in the United States Senate. It will be impossible to replace Senator Shelby. The amount of federal dollars he has secured for the Heart of Dixie is incomprehensible and irreplaceable. He will be remembered as the greatest senator in Alabama history.
Seniority is paramount in Washington. It is everything. It took Senator Shelby awaiting 20 years before he became one of the major players in Washington. Therefore, Senator Shelby would be the first to tell you that it is imperative for Alabama’s future that we elect someone young to be his successor. If you send someone over 60 to the U.S. Senate, they will never have any real power.
The political hierarchy of the senate will recognize that and place our senator on obscure committees. The best thing for us to do is to send a younger person to the Senate, and also one that is not an ideologue demagogue who is more interested in being on Fox News than bringing home the bacon.
First on most lists is Katie Boyd Britt. She served as Senator Shelby’s Chief of Staff and is now the CEO of the Business Council of Alabama. She is only 39 years old and she would have the potential to be a power in Washington. Shelby likes her.
Someone who will probably be in the race and will be one of the early frontrunners is Secretary of State John Merrill. He has served his two four-year terms as Secretary of State and is precluded from running for another term in that office. Therefore, he has to go somewhere. He is the best retail politician in the state and is the only statewide official with a real grassroots organization. Merrill will be a player and has the acumen and diligence to be an effective senator.
Congressman Robert Aderholt would be the logical favorite to take Senator Shelby’s seat. However, with 24 years seniority in the House, Congressman Aderholt is making the right decision for himself and our state by remaining in his House seat.
PSC President, Twinkle Cavanaugh, would be an excellent person to succeed Shelby. She is popular and still young, but she will probably not be in the race.
Former Trump Ambassador to Slovenia, Lynda Blanchard, has already announced that she will enter the race for Shelby’s U.S. Senate seat in 2022. She is from Montgomery and has come to the table with $5 million.
The person who might run but would not be an effective senator is Huntsville Congressman Mo Brooks. He would be an albatross for our state. During his 10 years in Congress, Brooks has been an obstacle for Senator Shelby and Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle as they have worked to build Huntsville’s Redstone Arsenal into the Science and Technology Capitol of Alabama and probably the nation.
Brooks’ only mission is to be thought of as a right-wing extremist, who cares more about being a demagogue than representing and helping his district. If Brooks were to replace Shelby, it could be devastating to Alabama’s efforts to attract federal dollars or future economic prospects. It will be hard enough for Shelby’s predecessor to simply maintain everything Shelby has brought to Alabama. However, with Brooks in Shelby’s seat, Alabama might actually lose ground – not only the Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, but also UAB in Birmingham, Maxwell-Gunter in Montgomery, and Fort Rucker in the Wiregrass.
2022 is going to be a big year in Alabama politics.
See you next week.
March 24, 2020 - 2022 Will be Big Year for Alabama Politics
All signs point to a Titanic political year in 2022. In fact, as I look back over the last six decades of my observations of Alabama politics, next year may be the most momentous.
Most states elect their governors and legislators in presidential years. However, in the Heart of Dixie, we have our big election year in non-presidential years. Not only will we elect our governor to a four-year term, we will elect all of our constitutional officers like Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner, Secretary of State, State Treasurer, State Auditor and Lt. Governor, as well as two seats on the State Public Service Commission and several seats on the State Supreme Court. More importantly, all 140 members of the Alabama State Legislature will be up for reelection. We have 105 members of the Alabama House of Representatives and 35 State Senators. In addition, all 67 sheriffs in the state are on the ballot in 2022. In many counties this is the most important race and the reason folks will show up to vote. All politics is local.
Most campaign money spent in the 2022 elections by special interests will be spent in state legislative races. The Legislative Branch is inherently more powerful in Alabama than the Executive or Judicial Branches.
All of our constitutional office holders are Republican. Attorney General, Steve Marshall, hails from Marshall County. He is in his first four-year-term. Therefore, he can and probably will run for a second term. He would be hard to beat in his bid for reelection in 2022.
John McMillan can run for a second term as State Treasurer. However, he will be over 80 years old. He has had an illustrious career in state politics. First, as a state representative from Baldwin County, then as head of the Forestry Association, the State Conservation Director, then two terms as State Agriculture Commissioner, before being elected as State Treasurer.
Speaking of Agriculture Commissioner, Rick Pate is doing a very good job in his first term and should have very little trouble being elected to a second term in 2022. This post is the most prominent and important office in the constitutional ranks besides governor. It oversees a large department with numerous duties. Agriculture is still Alabama’s number one economic industry.
Secretary of State, John Merrill, is precluded from running for a third term. Merrill is the best retail politician in the state and has by far the best grassroots organization of any political figure. Merrill will probably join the fray of candidates vying for the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by Richard Shelby. If he has to drop back, he could move to either State Treasurer or Lt. Governor.
The job of State Auditor will be on the ballot. Jim Zeigler, the current State Auditor, is thought of as somewhat of a maverick by Montgomery insiders. However, he is sly as a fox. Even though he knows the State Auditor has no real role in policy issues, he grabs headlines with his grandstanding. He is limited from running for Auditor again. It will be interesting to see if he chooses to run for something else at age 75.
Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth is only 38 years old. The job of lieutenant governor has few duties other than to preside over the state senate. Most state senators think Ainsworth has been a quick study in learning the Senate Rules and they like him. There is no doubt that Ainsworth desires to run for Governor of Alabama.
The biggest question of the upcoming 2022 momentous political year is whether Governor Kay Ivey will run for reelection. One school of thought has her going to the house at 78. The other is will she run and can she win? My prognostication is she will run and if she does, polls indicate she will win overwhelmingly.
Again, it will be fun to watch.
March 17, 2021 - Gambling and Budgets Priority for Legislature
The Legislature is at the midway point of the 2021 Regular Legislative Session. They have used 15 days of their allotted 30-day legislative session.
The Senate has been consumed with attempting to pass a constitutional amendment to allow Alabamians the right to vote on whether to have a state lottery along with some casino and sports betting. The Legislature in and of itself cannot authorize this expansion of gambling in the state. Their only authority is to vote to place it on the ballot in order to give you the opportunity to allow the state to reap the financial windfall now only afforded the Indian Gambling Syndicate.
There was a critical vote in the state senate last week on the issue. With it being a constitutional amendment, it required 21 votes. The vote was 19 to 13 in favor, but it lacked the constitutional muster by two votes. Therefore, the measure could be resurrected. However, if it is this close in the Senate, it probably does not have the votes for passage in the House of Representatives.
Polls indicate that it would be approved by a vote of the people, probably with a 70 to 30 plurality, and with a majority of Republicans voting in favor. If it is that popular with the people, you probably are asking why in the world would Senators not vote to allow you to vote on it. The devil is in the details. The majority of the casinos would go to the Creek Indian Gambling Syndicate. Some of the 24 Republican Senators balked at that almost total monopoly.
Senator Del Marsh was not the right sponsor or front man for the constitutional amendment. He is not totally trusted, especially by the 10 Democrats he has consistently run over and ignored for years while he was President Pro Tem of the Senate. Marsh is also perceived as a pawn of the Indian Gambling Syndicate. He is no longer Pro Tem, so nobody is scared of him. A setting sun sets off very little heat. He is not running for reelection for his Anniston based district because he could not be reelected. In his last race in 2018, he spent close to $480,000 to his unknown opponent’s $15,000 and only garnered 52% of the vote. That does not portend well for reelection.
Governor Kay Ivey needs to come out openly and strongly for the measure and make it her issue and her legacy. It may need to be done in a Special Session later this year. Even then, it will be a tough sell to get through the Senate and then the House.
Alabama is the Heart of the Bible Belt. If Alabama is the Bible Belt, then the area of Alabama, north of Birmingham and all the way to the Tennessee line is the buckle. There are not any casinos in North Alabama, only churches, and most of the churchgoers are Church of Christ or Baptist. They did not allow the sale of alcohol in most of these counties until a few years ago.
Every state senator in that area is a Republican and all of them voted no, including Gudger of Cullman, Givhan of Huntsville, Butler of Huntsville, Stutts of Florence, and Scofield of Sand Mountain. You can probably bet your bottom dollar that the preachers encouraged their parishioners to contact their senators on Sunday before the vote last Tuesday. You may see the legislature address a simple lottery.
It may not be a glamorous event in the legislative process, however, the beginning of the most important and imperative accomplishment occurred last week when the General Fund Budget passed the Alabama House of Representatives. The House approved a $2.4 billion dollar budget shepherded by the Ways and Means Chairman Steve Clouse (R-Ozark).
The budget includes a 2% raise for state employees. This raise would amount to an $867 per year raise for a state worker making the median salary of $43,346.
The budget includes an increase in funding for the Bureau of Pardons and Paroles. Other agencies seeing increases in the budget are the Department of Mental Health at 6.7%, the Alabama Law Enforcement Agency will see 7.9% increase, mostly for upgrading the state’s driver license system.
Overall, the budget is 3.3% higher than last years, which is amazing after a year of COVID-19. It now moves on to the Senate, which more than likely will concur with few changes.
See you next week.