Steve Flowers

April 13, 2022 - Congressional Lines and Congressmen will Remain the Same

For several years leading up to the 2010 Census count, the national projections were that Alabama would lose one of our seven congressional districts and drop to six. When the count was taken, we surprised ourselves and the nation and kept our seven seats in the United States Congress.

Therefore, the legislature’s task in drawing our seven congressional districts was relatively easy.  Except for some tweaking here and there due to growth in Madison, Limestone, Lee, Shelby and especially Baldwin counties, and the loss of population in the Black Belt, our congressional district lines were kept basically the same as they have been for the past few decades.  

We essentially have six of our seven districts that are safe Republican seats. We have one dedicated majority minority African American Democratic Congressional District.

That Democratic seat is held by Congresswoman Terri Sewell.  She has been in that seat for over a decade and has become a respected leader in the Democratic House leadership. The Democrats are in the majority which makes her a powerful member of the House. However, most political experts and polling indicates that this year’s election will bring a swing of 30 or more Republican seat pickups or takeovers, thus making the Republicans the majority party. This will be beneficial for Alabama since six of our seven seats are held by Republicans. It will be particularly beneficial to folks in the fourth district, who have Robert Aderholt (R-Haleyville) as their Congressman.

Aderholt is the most senior member of our delegation and is the ranking Republican on the House Appropriation Committee. 

Congressman Mike Rogers (R-Anniston) is also gaining ground in seniority.  He is a ranking member of the Armed Services Committee.  

Congressman Gary Palmer (R-Jefferson) represents the suburban areas of metro-Jefferson, Hoover and Shelby.  It is considered one of the most Republican House districts in America.

We have two freshmen Republican Congressmen, who are finishing their first two years in the House.  Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) represents the coastal first district of basically Mobile and Baldwin Counties.  He has taken to Congress like a duck to water.

Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) represents the second district made up of the Wiregrass and the fast growing Pike Road area of Montgomery as well as the populous counties of Autauga and Elmore.

All six of the aforementioned incumbents will be reelected without opposition.  

The only excitement in Congressional politics in the Heart of Dixie will play out in the fifth district.  This Huntsville-Tennessee Valley seat is currently held by Mo Brooks, who has opted to run for the U.S. Senate, thus leaving a seldom seen open congressional seat contest. There are six Republicans vying for this open fifth district seat.  The contestants are Dale Strong, Paul Sanford, Casey Wardynski, Harrison Wright, Andy Blalock, and John Roberts.

Madison County Commission Chairman Dale Strong appears to be the strongest candidate. He is far outdistancing the field in polling and fundraising. Some say that he could eclipse the field without a runoff.

The most ardent challengers will be former State Senator Paul Sanford and former Huntsville City School Superintendent Casey Wardynski. Dr. Wardynski has done a good job fundraising.  

There will be a large turnout in this congressional race. In fact, this Huntsville-Madison-Limestone Tennessee Valley area of the state will more than likely have the largest percentage turnout in the state. Not only is there an open congressional seat, but Mo Brooks is the local candidate for the open U.S. Senate Seat, and popular, incumbent Republican state school board member, Wayne Reynolds, will also be on the ballot with token opposition. 

In addition, the only hotly contested Republican State Senate race between Tom Butler and Bill Holtzclaw is in the Madison-Limestone area. There are also three open hotly contested State House races, including filling the seats of Speaker Mac McCutcheon and veteran House member Howard Sanderford. There is also a hotly contested open sheriff’s race in Limestone County. Furthermore, the phantom candidate for the U.S. Senate, Mike Durant, claims Huntsville as his home. All of these ingredients are a recipe for a larger turnout in the Tennessee Valley than the rest of the state on May 24.  

The Congressional lines and six of seven congressmen will remain the same for this 2022 election cycle.  However, hold the phone.  The federal courts could change that for 2024.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

April 6, 2022 - Fob James Story, 1978 Governor’s Race

The crowded field for governor striving to oust incumbent Governor Kay Ivey, includes Tim James. He has run before. In fact, this is his third try for the brass ring. His last race was in 2010 when he barely missed the runoff by a few votes. He was edged out by Robert Bentley, who went on to win. 

Tim James’ primary calling card has always been that he is the son of former Governor Fob James. The elder James was an ultra-successful businessman, who was first elected governor in 1978 as a Democrat and then elected to a second term as governor as a Republican in 1994. 

Governor Fob James first election as Governor in 1978 is one for the record books. The 1978 Governor’s Race is one of the classics in Alabama political lore. That governor’s race, which began with three heavyweights – former Governor Albert Brewer, Attorney General Bill Baxley, and Lt. Governor Jere Beasley – was expected to be titanic. The Republicans were relegated to insignificance on the gubernatorial stage. Therefore, the winner of the Democratic Primary would be governor.

Meanwhile, over in east Alabama, a little known former Auburn halfback named Fob James strolled into the governor’s race. Fob’s entry evoked very little interest, only curiosity as to why he would want to enter the fray against three well-known major players. Fob was exposed as a card-carrying Republican but even a political novice like Fob knew he could not win as a Republican, so he qualified to run as a Democrat along with the three B’s.

Fob had become very wealthy by starting a successful manufacturing company in Opelika. When he signed up to run for governor the press wrote him off as a rich gadfly who simply chose politics rather than golf as his pastime. Little did they know that the fact he was rich and had a lot of time on his hands could spell trouble for the average political opponent, who had to worry about fundraising and feeding their family while running a full-time campaign.

Fob realized he was no political professional like the three B’s who had spent their entire political adulthood in public office, so Fob sought out professional advice. He had the money to think big and wanted to know who the best political consultant in the South was. It was an easy answer:  Deloss Walker was political public relations genius who lived in Memphis. His track record for electing governors of southern states was 5-0. Walker was the most renowned and expensive political guru in the country in 1977.

Fob quietly sought out Walker, who at first refused to take Fob’s race. Walker’s first impression was that even he could not mold Fob into a winner against three well-financed, experienced thoroughbreds.

Nobody was aware Fob had garnered the genius Walker and had already been to political school when he signed up to run for governor in the spring of 1978. Brewer, Baxley, and Beasley ignored Fob. Baxley even praised him saying, “Fob would be a good governor. Too bad he’s not a serious candidate.”  Those words would come back to haunt Baxley.

Fob traveled the state in a yellow school bus and let the three B’s tear each other up. Baxley, Beasley and Brewer spent all their time and money attacking each other with negative ads, all the while Fob ran positive ads. Folks were of the opinion that the three B’s had all probably shot their mothers in a bar fight but they liked old Fob James, even if they thought his name was “Bob” James.

It was too late for the three B’s when they saw a poll about a week before the election showing Fob ahead of all three of them. Baxley refused to believe it and kept hammering at Beasley and Brewer, ignoring Fob. When the votes were counted, Fob was in first place, Baxley second, Brewer was third, and Beasley finished fifth behind State Senator Sid McDonald.

Fob easily beat Baxley in the runoff. After all, what could Baxley say? He had run all over the state for three months saying Fob would make a good governor. Fob James had pulled off one of the most amazing upset victories in the history of Alabama politics. The Fob James story of the 1978 Governor’s Race is truly one for the record books.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

March 30, 2022 - Young Boozer, State Treasurer

Young Boozer is state treasurer, again, and deservedly so.

Boozer was first elected as Alabama’s State Treasurer in 2010.  He did an excellent job during his first four years and was reelected in 2014 without opposition. Thus, serving eight consecutive years as state treasurer. He could have been elected to a third four-year stint. However, constitutionally he was term limited to two successive terms.

John McMillan was elected treasurer in 2018, after serving eight successful years as Agriculture Commissioner. Mr. Boozer was not ready to leave public service, so he agreed to become Assistant Superintendent of Banking with Superintendent Mike Hill.

During last year’s regular legislative session, the legislature passed a medical cannabis bill along with the legislation to allow for medical marijuana. They created an agency to oversee the prescription and regulatory process. The commission asked John McMillan to be Executive Director of the Cannabis Commission.  Governor Kay Ivey subsequently appointed Young Boozer to McMillan’s remaining 15-month term ending in 2022.  Boozer is running for reelection this year.  He easily will be elected for another full four-year term through 2026.  That will make him the longest serving treasurer in state history. The legendary Agnes Baggett currently holds the record.  

Young Boozer is perfectly scripted to be state treasurer.  He grew up in Tuscaloosa and went to college at Stanford University. The elite California college is known for producing national entrepreneurs and bank presidents. Young graduated with honors and then went to Wharton Business School for a masters in business.  He went on to have a successful career as a national and international banker.  He came home to be Executive Vice President of Colonial Bank in Montgomery. Young served on the Stanford University Board of Trustees from 2003 to 2008.

Therefore, you would have to say that he is probably the most qualified person to have ever served as Alabama’s State Treasurer because, essentially, the state treasurer is the state’s banker.  He is uniquely qualified and is doing the job for the right reasons.

Young Boozer is one of the best political names I have ever seen.  It is a name you remember. However, this Young Boozer is Young Boozer III.  His father, Young Boozer II was a legendary football hero and businessman.  The original Young Boozer was in the timber business in Geneva County and was Mayor of Samson.  He died at age 33 of flu during the Flu Pandemic of 1918-1919.  His widow moved the family to Dothan where Young Boozer II went to high school.  

Young Boozer II was a superstar high school baseball and football player and student.  He was brought to play both sports at the University of Alabama.  In his class was the great Dixie Howell who was also from the wiregrass and also in that class was a lanky kid from Fordyce, Arkansas named Paul “Bear” Bryant.  This trio of Dixie Howell, Bear Bryant and Young Boozer went out on a train to Pasadena, California and beat Stanford in the 1935 Rose Bowl and established the south and especially the University of Alabama as a football power to be reckoned with forever.  Young Boozer II was a hero of that Rose Bowl game.  He intercepted a pass in the waning moments of that game and clinched the victory.

Young Boozer II went on to be an ultra-successful businessman in Tuscaloosa.  He was involved with Coach Bryant in several successful business ventures.  Young Boozer II started and built Cotton States Life Insurance Company which he ultimately sold to Alfa Insurance, and it made him very wealthy.  He was a gregarious, unassuming man, who was always smiling and joyous.

Our current state treasurer, Young Boozer III, has a son who is appropriately named Young Boozer IV.  What if this Young Boozer has a son and he names him Young Boozer?  He will be named Young Boozer the fifth.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

March 23, 2022 - Benefactor or Idealogue

Over the years, I have discussed my observations and concepts of the two different roles or routes taken by a U.S. Senator or Congressman during their tenure in Washington.

One clearly chooses one of two postures in their representation of you in Washington. Our delegates to DC are either benefactors or idealogues.

The role of benefactor is much better for any state, especially Alabama. This public figure is not only a benefactor but also a facilitator and a statesman. In other words, this person is interested and diligent in bringing home federal dollars to the Heart of Dixie.  

The perfect example of a benefactor, facilitator and a statesman senator is our current U.S. Senator Richard Shelby. No senator in Alabama history has brought home more federal dollars to our state than Richard Shelby. He has helped Alabama more during his 36-years in the senate than any other senator.

The second role is idealogue. This politician sees his role as a zealot on issues. The idealogue is more interested in advocating for popular social and non-economic issues with no regard for the state’s financial interests.

Beginning in the 1930s and extending for 30 years through the 1960s, we had two of the greatest U.S. Senators in history. Lister Hill and John Sparkman were giants in Washington and were erudite diplomats for our state. They can aptly be described as benefactors, facilitators and statesmen for Alabama.

During the 1970s and 1980s, we had two well-respected and effective senators in Judge Howell Heflin and Richard Shelby.

Upon arrival of Jeff Sessions in 1996, as the state’s first true blue Republican, we witnessed the portrayal of our first true idealogue.  Sessions was the most right-wing, reactionary Republican in the U.S. Senate.  However, he was not a demagogue, he was a true believer and one of the most honest and gentlemanly men I have ever observed in the public arena.  He was also well qualified and prepared to be a U.S. Senator having been a U.S. Attorney and Attorney General of Alabama.

Alabama cannot afford to have the ultimate demagogic idealogue, Mo Brooks, follow Richard Shelby.  It would literally be like exchanging the most effective U.S. Senator in Alabama history with the least effective Senator in Alabama history. We would go from having the number one, most powerful senator to the last place number 100th effectiveness for their state in Washington.  It would be worse than not having a senator, because the image that Mo Brooks portrays for Alabama is so harmful that we would be better off not to have a second senator, and for a state that depends on federal dollars that would not be a good position for Alabama.  

A large portion of Alabama’s federal largesse dollars go to the Huntsville area. Mo Brooks has been the congressman from this area for 10 years. He has done nothing towards federal and economic growth in the Huntsville-Tennessee Valley area. Brooks has been an obstacle. He prefers being a bomb-thrower to being an effective representative. The entire growth and prosperity of the Huntsville area can be attributed to Senator Richard Shelby with local assistance from Mayor Tommy Battle.

Brooks laissez faire attitude towards government and his allegiance and loyalty to the right-wing clandestine Club for Growth is toxic for Alabama and our dependence on defense dollars. Brooks is an irrelevant, right-wing gadfly whom people just laugh at like a crazy uncle they keep locked in a closet. He has become a national poster boy for crazy theatrics.  The image he gives to Alabama hurts us immensely in Washington. He is a pariah for Alabama’s future.  

Brooks would be a deterrent for Alabama procuring additional or even keeping our current federal defense dollars in Alabama. If Mo Brooks is elected as our senator to replace Richard Shelby, you can expect Redstone Arsenal’s growth to stop and you can kiss the space command headquarters coming to Alabama good-bye.

Furthermore, those of you who live in the Montgomery River Region area and those of you who live in the Wiregrass and have depended on Maxwell-Gunter and Ft. Rucker as your economic engines for generations better grab hold of your wallet. With Mo Brooks as the Senator from Alabama, you may very well see these mega military economic meccas moved to California.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

March 9, 2022 - Incumbency Prevails in Secondary Constitutional Offices

Incumbency is a potent, powerful, inherent advantage in politics. That fact is playing out to the nines in this year’s Alabama secondary constitutional and down ballot races.

Several of the constitutional office incumbents do not have Republican or Democratic opposition. Of course, having a Democratic opponent is the same as not having an opponent in a statewide race in Alabama.  A Democrat cannot win in a statewide contest in the Heart of Dixie.  

Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth will be elected to a second four-year term without opposition.  He will be waiting in the wings to follow Kay Ivey as Governor.

Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate will be reelected without opposition.  He has done a good job in this important state post.  

State Treasurer Young Boozer is running unopposed for another four-year term.  He does an excellent job and is uniquely qualified for the Treasurer’s job.

State Supreme Court Justice Kelli Wise is running for reelection unopposed.  Kelli is popular and is a good jurist.  She is home free for six more years on the state’s high tribunal.

Attorney General Steve Marshall has token opposition in his run for reelection.  One Republican and one Democrat qualified against Marshall. However, he will coast to reelection.

There are two seats up for election on the Alabama Public Service Commission.  There are three seats on this regulatory panel.  The President of the PSC runs in a presidential year.  Twinkle Cavanaugh is President and pretty much runs the ship. The two incumbents are Jeremy Oden and Chip Beeker.  Oden has two unknown Republican opponents.  Beeker has two opponents in the GOP Primary.  One has some name identification, who has run before.  Beeker and Oden will probably win reelection.

There are only three hotly contested and interesting secondary statewide races.  That is because these three posts are open without an incumbent on the scene.

Popular Supreme Court Justice Mike Bolin, the former Probate Judge of Jefferson County, is term limited by an antiquated law that prohibits a judge from running for the court after age 70.  There are two qualified candidates seeking to follow Judge Bolin.  Birmingham Defense Attorney Greg Cook is facing Anniston Circuit Judge Debra Jones.  Cook appears to be the favorite to win.  It is apparent that the business community in the state is backing Cook.  He has also been endorsed by the Alabama Farmers Federation.  The latest campaign finance reports reveal Cook has $552,000 to spend compared to Jones $15,000.

The State Auditors position is open.  Jim Ziegler has served his eight-year stint.  This will be an interesting three-man race for this benign position.  Former Mobile State Representative and State Senator Rusty Glover is facing Muscle Shoals State Representative Andrew Sorrell and Jefferson County Pastor Stan Cooke.  All three are getting out and working the state.

The race to succeed John Merrill as Secretary of State will be a good race.  Merrill is term limited after eight years.  State Auditor Jim Ziegler is wanting to move next door in the Capitol and become Secretary of State.  Because of his name identification advantage, Ziegler will be favored to win the race.  However, he will get a significant challenge from State Representative Wes Allen.  

Young Wes Allen has been running for over a year and has a good many significant endorsements including Alfa.  He has an impressive resume having served a decade as Probate Judge of Pike County and four years as a State Representative.  He also has two home bases.  He has lived and served in office in Troy in Southeast Alabama and was born and raised in Tuscaloosa where his father Gerald Allen has been a long time State Senator.

Ed Packard, who has run the Elections Division of the Secretary of State’s office for decades, is also running.  He is very well qualified.

The aforementioned current Secretary of State, John Merrill, is not seeking any elective office in 2022, even though he is still relatively young. I have said this before and it holds true today,  Merrill is currently the best and most prolific retail politician in the state and one of the best I have seen in Alabama.  He has a real grassroots organization in Alabama.  He is literally everywhere.  Even though he is not on the ballot running this year, he is out working every candidate mentioned in this column. You have not heard the last of John Merrill.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

March 2, 2022 - Kay Ivey Still Favorite to Win Reelection

Usually in a gubernatorial year the Governor’s Race grabs the spotlight.  However, our open Senate Seat with the avalanche of Washington dollars flooding into the Heart of Dixie, the Governor’s Race has become overshadowed.

It is also an obvious fact of political life that an open Senate Seat is certain to be more competitive than a race with a popular incumbent governor running for reelection.  Incumbency is a tremendous advantage. You get free daily publicity just by governing. 

My prediction from the onset was that Kay Ivey would win reelection to another term and now with three months to the May 24 election, my prognostication is still that Governor Ivey will win a reelection victory.  Furthermore, my guess is that she wins without a runoff.

The best barometer of a gubernatorial outcome in a race with an incumbent governor running, is to look at how they ran the last time. Four years ago, Kay Ivey was a semi-incumbent. She had served over a year of Governor Robert Bentley’s last term and was running for her first full term.

In that 2018 race, she trounced the entire field of GOP candidates and won without a runoff. Folks, that field she beat in 2018 was much more formidable than the one she faces this year.  If for no other reason, she beat Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle one of the most qualified thoroughbreds to seek the brass ring in years.  He was well liked and from a vote rich area of the state and had grown his city to one of the fastest growing and prosperous cities in America.  Battle was well-financed and a good campaigner. Many of us wondered why he was seeking a job that was probably a demotion from being mayor of Alabama’s largest and most prosperous city. 

Battle was just one of the carnage that Ivey destroyed in the 2018 GOP Primary.  Also left in the wake were popular Birmingham Evangelist Scott Dawson, as well as well-financed Mobile State Senator Bill Hightower.

She went on to trounce the last viable Democratic candidate to run for governor, Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox who was well-financed and a viable candidate.  Kay Ivey beat Maddox 60% to 40% in the General Election.  This Maddox race wrote the book for what is the benchmark level for what a Democratic candidate can get in an Alabama state race.  The bar is set at 40% for a Democrat.  Doug Jones’ 39% to 61% loss for Senate in 2020 confirmed that threshold.

There are six unknown candidates who qualified to run as Democrats this year. The general election is irrelevant.  The winner of the May 24 GOP Primary will be governor.

The big question in the governor’s race is not whether Kay Ivey wins, it is whether or not this 2022 field of candidates can force her into a June 21 runoff?  The answer is probably not.

There are only two viable opponents, Lindy Blanchard and Tim James.  The reason they are viable is that they have personal wealth to spend. Both are spending their dollars, which shows a commitment.  

Tim James and Lindy Blanchard are both working hard. One of them will finish second. However, that only counts in horseshoes and marbles.  Running second was good in the old days of Alabama politics, because the governor could not succeed themselves. Therefore, whoever ran second would win four years later.  It was called running a “get acquainted race.”

In addition to Blanchard and James there are six other candidates vying to beat Kay Ivey. They all have some credentials and they are not all, “run for the fun of it” candidates.  Lew Burdette is a successful businessman who heads the King’s Ranch in Birmingham.  Dean Young is an ultra-right-wing candidate who has run several times for office in Mobile and is known in that area of the state. Dave Thomas is a former state representative and current Mayor of Springville in St. Clair County. Some voters may think he is the founder of Wendy’s. Dean Odle is an Opelika minister. Stacey George is a former Morgan County Commissioner who has run for governor before.

If Burdette gets 6%, Young gets 5%, Thomas gets 4%, and George and Odle get 3% each, that adds up to 21%.  That many candidates could force a runoff.  We will see.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

February 23, 2022 - 2022 Senate Race Will Be Most Expensive in State History

The marquee race in this big 2022 election year is for our open U.S. Senate seat.  It is beginning to percolate.

The race has been raging for over a year already and we are getting poised to begin the final full court press to the finish line. The GOP Primary is three months away on May 24 with a monumental runoff on June 21.  The winner on that day will be Shelby’s successor.

Early on, it appeared to be a two person race between Mo Brooks and Katie Britt. However, Mike Durant has surged out of the blue with a three solid month media bombardment and made it a three way race.

All three candidates appear to be well-financed and ready for a three month battle to the finish line. It will be the most expensive race in Alabama political history. There are barrels of money flowing into the Heart of Dixie primarily out of the Potamic basin in Washington.

In this modern day of national politics, a candidate’s individual war chest is not the all-telling story.  We live in a world of third party political action committees (PACs).  These third party PACs, based out of Washington, will more than likely spend more on their preferred candidate than will be spent by the candidates’ direct campaigns. The candidates’ individual campaign account dollars will go towards positive ads for their candidate.  The third party PAC ads will be negative.  These outside PACs are not supposed to work in conjunction or even correspond with their preferred candidate, but they do in actuality.  They share polling and media strategy.  These innocuous PACs have the meanest negative media gurus in America. These hired guns relish attacking and destroying their opposition.

Therefore, look for the next three months to be a barrage of negative ads against Mo brooks, Katie Britt and Mike Durant.

It will be easy to find and exploit negative ammunition on Mo Brooks.  He has been in politics for 40 years.  Katie Britt and Mike Durant will be harder to ambush as they are making their first races. It will be telling to see how Durant and Britt react to negative attacks.

Mo Brooks is backed by the Club for Growth.  He has been their boy for the last 10 years.  He fits in with them, ideologically.  The Club for Growth is an ultra-right wing fringe group that funds right-wing antigovernmental free trade candidates mostly in smaller conservative states where their money will go further.  They supposedly promised Brooks $5 million of soft third party money to commit to the race.  That money is there and they are spending it.  However, a deep dive into the polling shows Brooks sinking.

The wild card in the race is one POW hero, Mike Durant.  He has a really good story to tell, and he is telling that story with a well done media buy. He makes no pretense towards campaigning or meeting Alabamians.  He probably could not tell you where Conecuh or Bullock County are much less Samson or Slocomb.  He is from New Hampshire and moved to Huntsville to build an aerospace company.

Durant is being assisted by a third party PAC known as the Patriot PAC.  This group’s primary donors are very anti-Trump. The primary contributor to this PAC is a wealthy donor named Harriman. His mission is to elect five independent senators who will be swing votes and not align or have allegiance to any party. Harriman scoured the nation to find the perfect military hero to win a Republican seat. He garnered the perfect candidate in Durant, who is coming around the corner like nobody’s business. Durant would be likely to align with moderate Republicans like Mitt Romney and Susan Collins. In Washington, they are referring to Durant as a RINO in uniform.

Therefore, if you really look into the three GOP candidates you see a semblance of national Republican circles vying for a candidate of their persuasion to fill a guaranteed Republican seat.

Brooks would be the Club for Growth, right-wing, fringe candidate that adheres to pro-China trade policies and has no concern for Alabama jobs or federal projects vital to our state. Durant is backed by the Harriman PAC. Katie Britt is the mainstream, conservative, pro-business candidate who understands Alabama and her needs.  In fact, she is the only real Alabamian in the race.

It will be an interesting and an expensive three month show.  It will be fun to watch. I will keep you posted.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

February 16, 2022 - Significance of Trump Endorsements in Alabama Races

Former President Donald Trump was a very-popular president with Alabama Republican voters. Trump was a proven conservative president. He walked the walk. He did not just talk the talk. He has a legacy as president, especially in changing the philosophical tilt of the U.S. Supreme Court.  He remains popular with GOP primary voters in the Heart of Dixie.  

Trump continues to stay in the spotlight.  He almost feels compelled to endorse candidates for senate and governor in very conservative, southern and Midwest Republican states like Alabama where he still remains popular.  

Trump has indeed endorsed Congressman Mo Brooks in his quest to fill the seat of retiring U.S. Senator Richard Shelby. Brooks is basing his entire campaign on Trump’s endorsement.

Gubernatorial candidate, Lindy Blanchard, who has been a stalwart Trump supporter is hoping for Trump’s blessing in her quest to unseat Governor Kay Ivey.  Trump’s endorsement in this race would indeed be important in Ms. Blanchard’s mission.

In the senate race, polling by two reputable and independent polling firms indicates that Mo Brooks and Katie Britt are in a dead heat contest each with about 25% with Mike Durant at 18%.  Their numbers are not rock solid.  Britt has more favorable numbers than Brooks on likeability.    The poll indicates that if President Trump continues to be for Brooks, it will help him immensely.  If Trump becomes disenchanted with Brooks, he can kiss this race goodbye.  Brook’s campaign would simply vanish and sail away.

Therefore, the prevailing question is what is the significance of Trump’s endorsement in the senate race and also if Trump endorses the governor’s race?

My observation of Alabama politics over the last 60 years is that Alabamians more than any other state have a pronounced proclivity of not voting for a candidate that someone endorses, they will actually vote against them for that reason.  Alabamians are independent and like to make their own choices for individual candidates.  It has happened over and over again in my lifetime as though they are saying to a governor, in this case a former president, we elected you to your office and you ought to be thankful for that and not be presumptuous or try to stick your nose where it doesn’t belong.  Stick to your own knitting.

George Wallace in his heyday, when he was very popular, more popular than Trump in Alabama, would endorse candidates and they would universally, invariably lose even if they were favored.  It was as though his endorsement was the kiss of death.  He gave up and quit endorsing.

Trump has already had a dose of this Alabama anti-endorsing elixir. He made two endorsements in the 2017 special senate elections. Trump endorsed Luther Strange, and he lost.  Trump then endorsed Roy Moore and he lost.  

Other southern states have illustrated this anti-endorsing history.  During the Franklin Delano Roosevelt presidency, which lasted four terms throughout the Great Depression and New Deal, FDR was beloved and revered throughout the South.  He was especially loved in Georgia, where he would spend a good amount of time at his home in Warm Springs.

FDR had become like a king.  He was immensely popular.  However, he was having problems with the conservative establishment-oriented aging U.S. Supreme Court.  Roosevelt responded with a bold, audacious move to pack the court with six new members whom he could select and move the Supreme Court from 9 to 15 justices.  FDR wanted to control the Supreme Court.  A good many U.S. Senators, who had been loyal to Roosevelt’s New Deal agenda could not go along with this brazen power play. Georgia’s venerable Walter George was one of those who opposed the FDR Court packing plan.

Senator George was running for reelection and there was a tremendous ceremonial event of a water dam that Senator George had secured for Georgia.  The ceremony was less than a month before the election.  FDR came to the event and lambasted Walter George and openly asked Georgians to vote against him for reelection. When it came time for Senator Walter George to speak, he calmly and gentlemanly went to the podium and said in a dignified voice, “Mr. President, we Georgians appreciate you, we love you and admire you, but Mr. President, Georgians will elect their U.S. Senator.” Walter George was reelected overwhelmingly a few weeks later.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers

February 2, 2022 - Groundhog Day

Happy Groundhog Day. It is an ironic juxtaposition that the State of the Union address by the president and Groundhog Day occur on the same day. One involves a meaningless ritual in which a doddering octogenarian who is as outdated as the State of the Union event stumbles through some scripted predictions. The other involves an outdated mythical tradition celebrating a prediction by a rodent. Both prognostications by Biden and the Groundhog are insignificant and irrelevant.

Our marquee race for 2022 in the State of Alabama is the race to replace our retiring U.S. Senator, Richard Shelby. Before I delve into the rivalry to follow Shelby and sit in his seat, allow me to say that his junior counterpart in our current Senate tandem, Coach Tommy Tuberville, is doing a good job after his first year as our junior U. S. Senator. There was some speculation regarding his effectiveness given his lack of governmental experience. 

Tuberville has put together an excellent staff.  He did a good day’s work when he secured Stephen Boyd as his Chief of Staff. Tuberville and his staff are doing an excellent job with constituent service, which is an integral part of a senator’s job when you want to be an effective senator for your state.  

Tuberville’s staff is especially interested in helping veterans in Alabama.  He has a full-time staff member, who is assigned to helping Alabama veterans get their deserved benefits for their service to our country.  You could tell Tuberville was driven to making sure that military veterans and current service men and women were taken care of when he was running.  His father was a career military man and Tuberville revered him. Coach Tuberville has not sought the spotlight and tried to become a Fox News darling and be a right wing ideologue. 

He has taken on a workhorse mentality and has voted consistently conservative and been a team player within the GOP Senate caucus.  Tuberville realizes that he will never be a Richard Shelby because he got there later in life after his career as a college football coach.  He has learned that seniority counts.  Arriving in the U. S. Senate at age 66 is not conducive to being a senate giant.  Seniority is king in Washington. Tuberville also understands the importance that defense spending and agriculture are to Alabama.  He is applying himself to protecting these two vital concerns as any senator from Alabama should strive to accomplish.

It is all about seniority in the U.S. Senate. It will be at least 15 years before anybody we elect to this senate seat has any real power to bring home the bacon.  Katie Britt is 40 and Mo Brooks is 68.  You can do the math as to which one has the potential to be effective for Alabama and build seniority and power.  Katie Britt not only has the youthfulness to gain seniority, but she also possesses the ability, acumen, and more importantly she wants to be an effective senator for Alabama and protect our military bases and jobs.

Mo Brooks has shown over his 40-year political career and more recently his 10-year congressional tenure that he does not want to be effective for Alabama.  He is more interested in bomb throwing than doing anything for his district or Alabama. Brooks could not be effective, even if he wanted to.  He will be 69 and the Republican leadership would dismiss him as a rightwing gadfly and an old one at that.

The wildcard in the Senate race is one Mike Durant. He came out of the blue three months ago and has bombarded the airwaves with a constant saturation of television ads. He has run a total media campaign with no one-on-one campaigning. Few people have ever met him. He is like a stealth candidate, who only appears on your television as a POW war hero. Durant, who hails from New Hampshire, is primarily self-funding his campaign. However, he is also being financed by a PAC headed by a wealthy donor Harriman, who wants to elect five independent non-partisan senators in the mold of Mitt Romney of Utah and Susan Collins of Maine, which would put Durant in a small group of liberal Democrats and Republicans. Durant may also be torpedoed by a family situation that has come to light recently.

The U.S. Senate race is fluid at this time with most people undecided on their choice. It will be interesting to watch.

See you next week.

by Steve Flowers